barker132000
Footballguy
How will he perform.
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Randy Moss - prediction? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter barker132000
- Start date
Abspara
Footballguy
As good as any other receiver Alex Smith has tossed to on a run first offense. That's my guess.Randy is talented. Alex is not. That's the bottleneck.
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With Moss, there are two separate things to discuss; is he engaged in being a good players, and does he still have the ability to perform. As far as ability goes, even with Smith as his QB, I can easily see a 65-1250-9TD season...but how he is mentally engaged (i.e. how does he take his first 3 target game into the NEXT game) is really what is worth discussing, and unfortunately, none of us are mind readers.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
He is either cut before the seasons starts... or the 49ers win less game as a direct result. Yes, I said direct.
Since you asked for a prediction:
12 games played
35 catches, 472 yards, 4 TDs (all TDs in the first 5-6 games, looking spiffy fantasy-wise).
Free agent to end the season.
49ers 9-7.
6-6 when Moss is cut.
Since you asked for a prediction:
12 games played
35 catches, 472 yards, 4 TDs (all TDs in the first 5-6 games, looking spiffy fantasy-wise).
Free agent to end the season.
49ers 9-7.
6-6 when Moss is cut.
CalBear
Footballguy
Like the diva he is.
His most valuable asset, deep speed, was already eroded before he retired. After a year of retirement and a year older I just don't see him making any meaningful impact.
This isn't even close to when he went from Oakland to NE, he was a lot younger then and physically still in his prime.
Even if his mind is right his physical skills are gone.
This isn't even close to when he went from Oakland to NE, he was a lot younger then and physically still in his prime.
Even if his mind is right his physical skills are gone.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
he'll be cut before the season even starts.
mjr
Footballguy
There's very little chance Moss has the conditioning at this stage to play anywhere near the number of downs he did in him prime. So even if he makes it through the offseason training programs and lands on the final roster, he's not going to get a lot of playing time to be worth a pick. The RBs would probably rack up more receptions than him at this point.
Warhogs
Footballguy
Honest answer now: he is probably the 2012 version of 2011 Braylon Edwards. Now, Edwards numbers were also effected by missing time with injuries and he was cut late in the year but I think that role would be more likely Randy's role.In honor of Jamie Moyer winning last night I will say 85 rec, 1326 yards, 12 td.
johnadams
Footballguy
That's probably the real intent his. If they can get a Plaxico (2011 version) type season, they will be happy. Niners were dreadful in the red zone and adding a legit weapon means they might open up the playbook more when they get there. 50 catches, 700 yds, 6 TDs would be a good year for Moss and I think in line with what SF hopes for. Anything more is just bonus.As for FF, let someone else overdraft him.'matuski said:
jurb26
Footballguy
Overdraft? I'm betting he will be a WW pickup in most leagues.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I traded him for that reason. He could explode, and he was cheap enough, but I wouldn't start him.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
I think that most people will have him on their bench for weeks 1 & 2. If he does well, and then lays some eggs, this could happen. For the most part, owners are going to be cautious out of the gate.
this... making him worthy of a Bye week starter... at best he will have similar numbers to Crabtree last year.. 60 receptions, 900 yds, and more TD's.. maybe in the 7-10 td range.. those numbers would make him a viable #3 option due to the redzone looksi also think that his coach will keep him working harder than most think.. Harbaugh has a unique ability to get the most out of his players
MacAvery
Footballguy
Many are overlooking Moss because of Jim Trotter's speculation that he will be on a snap count.
Trotter may not be completely off the mark but we know this much:
- Moss signed for $2.5 mil with incentives to $4 mil
- He's in shape
- He shaved off the mop
- He's had a great camp
- He's got chemistry with Smith
- Smith has a year in the system
So what the hell does Randy want? and what does Harbaugh want with him besides taking the top off the defense every now and then.
Well...David Akers was the best kicker in all of fantasy last year...he even broke some NFL records for field goals made...and for a very good reason. The Niners sucked in the red zone in 2011. They were at the bottom of the freakin league.
Enter Randy Moss...even though we think of him as the bomb catcher...and yes he's 35...but historically...he is a red-zone beast.
His career RED-ZONE stats are:
YEAR-TEAM-REC-TD
2009-NE-12-8
2008-NE-7-5
2007-NE-23-15
2006-OAK-1-1
2005-OAK-5-2
2004-MIN-11-9
2003-MIN-12-8
2002-MIN-12-3
2001-MIN-5-2
2000-MIN-8-6
1999-MIN-10-5
1998-MIN-10-6
We all saw what Laurent Robinson did last year as the 3rd option in the Cowboy's offense. Technically he was the 4th option but Austin missed a lot of games and ended up with 7 less targets than Robinson. Robinson got only 80 total targets last year...a 5.7/gm average. Yet..he netted 50 receptions, 800+ yards and 11 TDs...8 of them red-zone...That was good for WR15.
I realize comparing the Dallas offense to San Francisco's seems stupid but...actually...red-zone attempts between the two teams was very similar for all positions. Remember Akers?
Even if Moss is 3rd in the pecking order behind Crabtree and Davis, he fills a specific need and he should average at least 5 targets a game...and they should be meaningful ones. As in closing out drives.
One caveat is that Robinson did average a little over 40 snaps a game. That's a bit more than Trotter's number (20-25) but there is no evidence that number came from anyone in the Niner's organization.
Oh and...as far as what Randy wants...I think he wants to shut everyone up.
Anyway...there are some very good articles breaking this down better than I can...I am just surprised there isn't more talk about this in the Shark Pool.
Prediction:
55 receptions, 750 yards, 12 TDs
Trotter may not be completely off the mark but we know this much:
- Moss signed for $2.5 mil with incentives to $4 mil
- He's in shape
- He shaved off the mop
- He's had a great camp
- He's got chemistry with Smith
- Smith has a year in the system
So what the hell does Randy want? and what does Harbaugh want with him besides taking the top off the defense every now and then.
Well...David Akers was the best kicker in all of fantasy last year...he even broke some NFL records for field goals made...and for a very good reason. The Niners sucked in the red zone in 2011. They were at the bottom of the freakin league.
Enter Randy Moss...even though we think of him as the bomb catcher...and yes he's 35...but historically...he is a red-zone beast.
His career RED-ZONE stats are:
YEAR-TEAM-REC-TD
2009-NE-12-8
2008-NE-7-5
2007-NE-23-15
2006-OAK-1-1
2005-OAK-5-2
2004-MIN-11-9
2003-MIN-12-8
2002-MIN-12-3
2001-MIN-5-2
2000-MIN-8-6
1999-MIN-10-5
1998-MIN-10-6
We all saw what Laurent Robinson did last year as the 3rd option in the Cowboy's offense. Technically he was the 4th option but Austin missed a lot of games and ended up with 7 less targets than Robinson. Robinson got only 80 total targets last year...a 5.7/gm average. Yet..he netted 50 receptions, 800+ yards and 11 TDs...8 of them red-zone...That was good for WR15.
I realize comparing the Dallas offense to San Francisco's seems stupid but...actually...red-zone attempts between the two teams was very similar for all positions. Remember Akers?
Even if Moss is 3rd in the pecking order behind Crabtree and Davis, he fills a specific need and he should average at least 5 targets a game...and they should be meaningful ones. As in closing out drives.
One caveat is that Robinson did average a little over 40 snaps a game. That's a bit more than Trotter's number (20-25) but there is no evidence that number came from anyone in the Niner's organization.
Oh and...as far as what Randy wants...I think he wants to shut everyone up.
Anyway...there are some very good articles breaking this down better than I can...I am just surprised there isn't more talk about this in the Shark Pool.
Prediction:
55 receptions, 750 yards, 12 TDs
bocksheesh
Footballguy
I got him very late in my draft with the expectation that he puts up a Plaxico from 2011 season.
Ideally, he breaks out quickly, his reputation adds to his value, and I trade him. Worst case he's a WR4 for me who will have a couple big games in the season - most likely whe he's on my bench.
But I think he comes away with 6 TDs minimum this season.
Ideally, he breaks out quickly, his reputation adds to his value, and I trade him. Worst case he's a WR4 for me who will have a couple big games in the season - most likely whe he's on my bench.
But I think he comes away with 6 TDs minimum this season.
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Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I have a hard time believing Moss, even at this stage, will be happy and produce by being only a part-time player/producer. If you look at his whole career, he goes in the tank in most games where he is not involved early and often, so I see him this year as either rebounding and have a very good year or disappearing and being cut sooner rather than later. I mean, will Randy Moss really be happy going out there in a run-oriented offense and having only the occasional pass thrown his way? Based on his past, the obvious answer is no, but I guess we'll see if can prove many us wrong, if the 49ers do only plan on using him as a part-time player.
PatsFanCT
Footballguy
Guess I have a different take than most here.
Even at his age, his natural ability still makes him a valuable receiver. However, I think he's been humbled, if that's even possible. After being cut by the Pats, his shot at getting a ring went out the window, as Minnesota and Tennessee were't going to get him one. Then, because of his prima donna attitude, no team wanted him last year.
I think he knows this is his last chance at a ring, and he's on a great team that can get him one if he plays to his abilities. He had a great camp, and so far has the right attitude. As long as SF is winning, he will play well and will be worth starting. But if they start losing, you better trade him quick.
Even at his age, his natural ability still makes him a valuable receiver. However, I think he's been humbled, if that's even possible. After being cut by the Pats, his shot at getting a ring went out the window, as Minnesota and Tennessee were't going to get him one. Then, because of his prima donna attitude, no team wanted him last year.
I think he knows this is his last chance at a ring, and he's on a great team that can get him one if he plays to his abilities. He had a great camp, and so far has the right attitude. As long as SF is winning, he will play well and will be worth starting. But if they start losing, you better trade him quick.
Ghost of Bill Walsh
Footballguy
So many variables with him. Has his mental attitude changed and can he accept being a role player? Is he gonna be a team player or a Randy Moss egotist. Camp is camp and it doesn't always mean that it will translate to the real season. If Moss has recommitted himself to football, learned to accept his role of not getting every pass thrown and help his teammates when he's not involved in plays. Sure the mind may be willing to be a top WR again but the body doesn't always reciprocate. He needs to be able to play within himself and what his body will let him do. If all that and these mentioned variables, I'm sure there's more, then yes he can contribute to the 49ers this season. We've all seen it though. One small incident causing him to implode and forget about football if he's not the center of attention. Harbaugh's a hardass and will Moss be able to exist and cope with him? If things take a turn for the worse I don't think Harbaugh will hesitate to let him go. Predictions for him are hard because we don't know what's going to happen so I'll reserve posting what production he'll get until I see a few games. I'm mildly optimistic but won't be surprised if things go sour. Would love to see him be even 50% of his prime years and maybe then things could get even better for him. No doubt he's gonna make a good redzone target & that may end up being his forte with the team.
He's on a team that has a legit shot to get to the superbowl and win. How bad does Moss wanna help to see that happen?
He's on a team that has a legit shot to get to the superbowl and win. How bad does Moss wanna help to see that happen?
Franknbeans
Footballguy
He's the best WR the Niners have. 75 catches 1100 yds 7 tds 
DevilintheDetail
Footballguy
I think a lot of folks are over-thinking this one. Randy Moss is the best WR the 49ers have this year. Everyone on the team, from Harbaugh on down, have said this. The team, itself, has not publicly said anything about limiting his touches/snaps. The 49ers were pretty weak in the red zone last year. Harbaugh loves to put points on the board when he has weapons (see Stanford) and now he does.
The same thing happened with Moss when he left Oakland for New England. Everyone thought he was washed up and wouldn't amount to much. But he gave the offense a new threat and, motivated, he was dominant. I think we'll see a mini-version of that season this year. A committed, energized Moss that leads to big overall growth for the offense.
1100 yards, 11TDs.
The same thing happened with Moss when he left Oakland for New England. Everyone thought he was washed up and wouldn't amount to much. But he gave the offense a new threat and, motivated, he was dominant. I think we'll see a mini-version of that season this year. A committed, energized Moss that leads to big overall growth for the offense.
1100 yards, 11TDs.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Plax had 45 receptions and 8 TDs last year...don't see Moss getting anything close to 1,000 yds but I could see him snag a few TDs. Very fringe WR4 for me.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I have no doubts about his ability; my doubts are about his motivation to play, especially if he is not as involved as he'd like. As for that last chance at a ring, he probably thought NE was that as well at the time, and yet he went in the tank early in 2010 even though they were winning games. Like I said, I won't be surprised if he has a good year, but I also won't be surprised if he goes in the tank and gets cut again.
nysportsfan
Footballguy
I think Moss' presence completely helps Crabtree, who for the first time is healthy, had full OTAs and camp, and is in sync with Smith. So I think the receiver to have is Crabtree, but Moss has a nice season as a WR3. 55-800-6.
DesmondBishop
Footballguy
I am predicting a meltdown before the end of the year.
Bo Skiboski
Footballguy
Anyone else feel like he's a sneaky week 1 play in deeper leagues at GB? They're going to have to score some points and if Randy has one game he's going to be motivated in it's week one in the league's showcase late game. Have a hunch he get's involved early and has a nice week.
Sea Duck
Footballguy
I had a hunch that he would get 1 catch for 7 yards.
Bo Skiboski
Footballguy
GB 31st against the pass last season. Randy desperate to let the world know he's still can do it. If one guy's value is sure to rise after week 1 it's Moss.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Moss does enjoy lighting up Green Bay. I wouldn't be surprised if that is the team he has scored most against in the NFL over his career. If it is not, it's close.
12punch
Footballguy
you left out the part about where we get the time machine.
PatsFanCT
Footballguy
Yup, and as my 3rd WR, why not?
Jewell
Footballguy
Per RotoWorld: Randy Moss is listed as the starter opposite Michael Crabtree on the 49ers' Week 1 depth chart.
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/1655/randy-moss
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/1655/randy-moss
PatsFanCT
Footballguy
Minimum!
coachbobbyfinstock
Footballguy
No matter what Moss' frame of mind is, or who he is playing on a particular week- the bottom line is that his QB is Alex Smith.
I like the guy for NFL purposes (he seems to manage a game pretty well and he showed he can make clutch plays) but I think he is holding Moss' fantasy stock down..
I like the guy for NFL purposes (he seems to manage a game pretty well and he showed he can make clutch plays) but I think he is holding Moss' fantasy stock down..
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
You put any stock in that SF beat writer's column that Moss will be limited to 20-25 snaps per game all regular season long? That doesn't afford him a ton of opportunities....
LawFitz
Footballguy
Or Moss will take Smith's stock way up like he has for several other QBs during his career when healthy and motivated. Super sleeper: Colin Kaepernick
DevilintheDetail
Footballguy
I don't put much stock in that column. I think Moss will open up the field for the rest of the offense and that he's going to be in the game during all red zone snaps, which is when you want him in the game. He's also going to be their deep ball guy. I think he has a lot of opportunity.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
The TARDIS appears to be operational. http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000060108/Moss-scores-on-49ers-debutMoss does not run anything more than go routes.
jurb26
Footballguy
The TARDIS appears to be operational. http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000060108/Moss-scores-on-49ers-debutMoss does not run anything more than go routes.
There is nothing more laughable than hearing people say that silly, misguided line. It's definitive proof to me that they really don't know much about football.
