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Rank these players for career value (1 Viewer)

Just to give you an idea of a general process I went through in ranking these guys...

I wrote down: Pro Bowls, All Pro, Years Played, HOF, SB wins, and the number of times they led the league in a major category (obviously useless for OL).

The HOF guys and locks for future HOF were first, then I roughly sorted by number of Pro Bowls and All Pro seasons. The other categories were tiebreakers for the most part, though I was on the lookout for especially long or short careers. Most of the guys were in the 12-season range, though.

On to the second round now...

 
Brooks

Zimmerman

Sharpe

Harrison

Wisniewski

ZThomas

Swilling

Bettis

Butler

SRice

McNair

Glenn

Talley

Hopkins

Brunell

ETA Butler

 
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Okay, I'm going to defend my placement of Brunell, because it seems like he is dead last on several lists. But first . . .

I would also like to amend my previous response to move Shannon Sharpe up the list to the top 5, my initial gut reaction was that in a list filled with pretty good performers at various positions, I couldn't have a tight end that high, but then I went back and looked at his career.

Now back to Brunell . . .

If you are going to base it on pro bowls and all pro selections, you will necessarily overvalue the line positions at the expense of the quarterback. If a quarterback has an off year or an injury that causes some missed games, he is likely not making the pro bowl. An offensive lineman, has he made at least three in the past, no problem.

Quarterback is, if not the most important position, the most variable position in terms of performance, and an above average QB is, in my opinion, worth more than an above average performer elsewhere.

Here's a thought experiment. You are sitting at the 8th overall pick and go on the clock. Mysteriously, a strange man in a black cloak appears and lets you look into a crystal ball to see the careers of the players you are considering. Player A is a quarterback who will be the next Mark Brunell. Player B is an offensive guard who will be the next Steve Wisniewski, and Player C is a safety who will be the next Leroy Butler.

Assuming you don't have enough picks to trade up and take all three as soon as possible, and have to take just one, which one is it?

For me, it's pretty much a no brainer, assuming I dont already have Peyton Manning or Tom Brady on my roster (and if I am picking 8th that is likely true). I run the Brunell card up as fast as I can. You get the equivalent a player who sat for two years only because he was behind the guy who would go on to break the all time touchdown record. A guy who at age 25, starting for an expansion team, put up respectable numbers with junk at wide receiver and a makeshift line around rookie Boselli. The next year, when Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell became starters and the line was improved, he had his breakout, and would post a top 10 in Adjusted Yards per Attempt and Passer Rating in 6 of the next 7 seasons, through age 32. And those pass efficiency stats don't include his added ability as a runner, where he had at least 200 yards rushing every season except for one by age 32.

I know he "only" made three pro bowls. You give me a quarterback who is going to hit the ground running as a starter, be a top 5 quarterback in terms of combined pass efficiency and running each year until he is in his early 30's, and I will take that every time.

The list Doug put out is a good one. Not a bad name on there, so I don't want to denigrate any particular player. I'll just say that I don't see how a quarterback who is that productive and is a key part in several productive, efficient offensive seasons can be ranked at the very bottom.

 
Okay, I'm going to defend my placement of Brunell, because it seems like he is dead last on several lists. But first . . .I would also like to amend my previous response to move Shannon Sharpe up the list to the top 5, my initial gut reaction was that in a list filled with pretty good performers at various positions, I couldn't have a tight end that high, but then I went back and looked at his career.Now back to Brunell . . .If you are going to base it on pro bowls and all pro selections, you will necessarily overvalue the line positions at the expense of the quarterback. If a quarterback has an off year or an injury that causes some missed games, he is likely not making the pro bowl. An offensive lineman, has he made at least three in the past, no problem. Quarterback is, if not the most important position, the most variable position in terms of performance, and an above average QB is, in my opinion, worth more than an above average performer elsewhere.Here's a thought experiment. You are sitting at the 8th overall pick and go on the clock. Mysteriously, a strange man in a black cloak appears and lets you look into a crystal ball to see the careers of the players you are considering. Player A is a quarterback who will be the next Mark Brunell. Player B is an offensive guard who will be the next Steve Wisniewski, and Player C is a safety who will be the next Leroy Butler. Assuming you don't have enough picks to trade up and take all three as soon as possible, and have to take just one, which one is it?For me, it's pretty much a no brainer, assuming I dont already have Peyton Manning or Tom Brady on my roster (and if I am picking 8th that is likely true). I run the Brunell card up as fast as I can. You get the equivalent a player who sat for two years only because he was behind the guy who would go on to break the all time touchdown record. A guy who at age 25, starting for an expansion team, put up respectable numbers with junk at wide receiver and a makeshift line around rookie Boselli. The next year, when Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell became starters and the line was improved, he had his breakout, and would post a top 10 in Adjusted Yards per Attempt and Passer Rating in 6 of the next 7 seasons, through age 32. And those pass efficiency stats don't include his added ability as a runner, where he had at least 200 yards rushing every season except for one by age 32. I know he "only" made three pro bowls. You give me a quarterback who is going to hit the ground running as a starter, be a top 5 quarterback in terms of combined pass efficiency and running each year until he is in his early 30's, and I will take that every time. The list Doug put out is a good one. Not a bad name on there, so I don't want to denigrate any particular player. I'll just say that I don't see how a quarterback who is that productive and is a key part in several productive, efficient offensive seasons can be ranked at the very bottom.
He topped out at 23 TDs in a season. That's his only season with over 20 TD passses. Considering his entire body of work, I just can't put him ahead of guys like LeRoy Butler or Wisniewski. If Jessie Armstead hadn't taken a cheap shot at him in a preseason game, maybe he would have been one of the all-time best. But with his entire body of work, he's never making the HOF. Lots of guys on that list should be in the HOF legitimately. He never played in a Super Bowl, and I think everybody other than Aaron Glenn has a better HOF argument than him. If I could draft him back in 1994, sure I take him. But these other guys simply had better careers.
 
Okay, I'm going to defend my placement of Brunell, because it seems like he is dead last on several lists. But first . . .I would also like to amend my previous response to move Shannon Sharpe up the list to the top 5, my initial gut reaction was that in a list filled with pretty good performers at various positions, I couldn't have a tight end that high, but then I went back and looked at his career.Now back to Brunell . . .If you are going to base it on pro bowls and all pro selections, you will necessarily overvalue the line positions at the expense of the quarterback. If a quarterback has an off year or an injury that causes some missed games, he is likely not making the pro bowl. An offensive lineman, has he made at least three in the past, no problem. Quarterback is, if not the most important position, the most variable position in terms of performance, and an above average QB is, in my opinion, worth more than an above average performer elsewhere.Here's a thought experiment. You are sitting at the 8th overall pick and go on the clock. Mysteriously, a strange man in a black cloak appears and lets you look into a crystal ball to see the careers of the players you are considering. Player A is a quarterback who will be the next Mark Brunell. Player B is an offensive guard who will be the next Steve Wisniewski, and Player C is a safety who will be the next Leroy Butler. Assuming you don't have enough picks to trade up and take all three as soon as possible, and have to take just one, which one is it?For me, it's pretty much a no brainer, assuming I dont already have Peyton Manning or Tom Brady on my roster (and if I am picking 8th that is likely true). I run the Brunell card up as fast as I can. You get the equivalent a player who sat for two years only because he was behind the guy who would go on to break the all time touchdown record. A guy who at age 25, starting for an expansion team, put up respectable numbers with junk at wide receiver and a makeshift line around rookie Boselli. The next year, when Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell became starters and the line was improved, he had his breakout, and would post a top 10 in Adjusted Yards per Attempt and Passer Rating in 6 of the next 7 seasons, through age 32. And those pass efficiency stats don't include his added ability as a runner, where he had at least 200 yards rushing every season except for one by age 32. I know he "only" made three pro bowls. You give me a quarterback who is going to hit the ground running as a starter, be a top 5 quarterback in terms of combined pass efficiency and running each year until he is in his early 30's, and I will take that every time. The list Doug put out is a good one. Not a bad name on there, so I don't want to denigrate any particular player. I'll just say that I don't see how a quarterback who is that productive and is a key part in several productive, efficient offensive seasons can be ranked at the very bottom.
He topped out at 23 TDs in a season. That's his only season with over 20 TD passses. Considering his entire body of work, I just can't put him ahead of guys like LeRoy Butler or Wisniewski. If Jessie Armstead hadn't taken a cheap shot at him in a preseason game, maybe he would have been one of the all-time best. But with his entire body of work, he's never making the HOF. Lots of guys on that list should be in the HOF legitimately. He never played in a Super Bowl, and I think everybody other than Aaron Glenn has a better HOF argument than him. If I could draft him back in 1994, sure I take him. But these other guys simply had better careers.
I agree Brunell is not a hall of famer, and if that is what this post was seeking, I would be right with you. Compared to others on this list, he was not as dominant at his particular position as they were. However, we are talking value. Let's take Wisniewski for example. He was an 8 time pro bowler and 8 time all pro who played left guard for the majority of his career, all with the Raiders. In the 9 different seasons he was either a pro bowler or all pro (or both) the Raider's offense average finish was 14.6 in points scored and 15.0 in yards, roughly league average. They were only top 10 in points once, when Wisniewski was 33 in 2000, and only top 10 in yards twice (1996 and 2000). What does this mean? It could mean he had really crappy teammates who really dragged down the offense, offsetting his great performance. It could mean that he made some of those pro bowls on reputation. It could mean that the value of a great offensive guard play isn't necessarily going to translate into elite offensive performance for a unit. Its probably not fair to single out Wisniewski, I may want to do a systematic study to see at what positions a pro bowl performance translates into offensive efficiency and wins.Brunell's teams, between 1996-2000, his prime, and when he made all three pro bowls, were top 10 in yards every season and top 10 in points every season except 1996. His top level performances translated to team excellence. I understand he was not a big td producer directly, so he is not as valuable as the HOF QB's of his era. But he was efficient, avoided turnovers, and his team produced points consistently throughout the prime of his career.
 
My quick, no thought look at the first list:

Anthony Munoz

Bruce Smith

Cris Carter

Aeneas Williams

Dan Hampton

Seth Joyner

Neil Smith

John Lynch

Roman Phifer

Clay Matthews

Eric Moulds

Warrick Dunn

Dale Carter

Dexter Coakley

Kevin Carter

 
My quick, no thought look at the second list:

Derrick Brooks

Shannon Sharpe

Gary Zimmerman

Marvin Harrison

Zach Thomas

Steve Wisniewski

Steve McNair

Darryl Talley

LeRoy Butler

Brad Hopkins

Aaron Glenn

Pat Swilling

Simeon Rice

Jerome Bettis

Mark Brunell

 

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