RB Aaron Jones, MIN (2 Viewers)

[Interseptopus]

You have to be kidding. Somebody saying they gained 20 pounds of muscle in 10 weeks on livestrong.com & a quick tutorial on Muscle & Fitness. Come on, LOL.

These are the kinds of things I warned about in my previous post explaining this stuff. You would be surprised what you hear from people who should know better.

Personal trainers can be some of the absolute worst, spouting nonsense left & right. I've even heard S&C coaches spew the BS, although, it might be more about trying to motivate their subjects.

lol. ok man. you said a trained athlete cant do it, it's impossible you said. I provided you two trained athletes who did, and you say its bogus. alright. I've had my laugh for the night. back to the block list you go. enjoy your denial. sorry that I am much more educated on this topic than someone who lifts weights for fun, but you're wrong. you can live in denial all you want I guess. FWIW Jamaals weight is already up from what I heard today. so there's hope for you yet 

theres one thing we can agree on I guess, and its that personal trainers are the worst. they keep me in business though so they do serve a purpose. 

 

[Football Jones]

lol. ok man. you said a trained athlete cant do it, it's impossible you said. I provided you two trained athletes who did, and you say its bogus. alright. I've had my laugh for the night. back to the block list you go. enjoy your denial. sorry that I am much more educated on this topic than someone who lifts weights for fun, but you're wrong. you can live in denial all you want I guess. FWIW Jamaals weight is already up from what I heard today. so there's hope for you yet 

I figured that's the direction you would go (the BS stories). You can certainly gain weight quickly, but the human body isn't capable of adding a large amount of lean muscle tissue in a short amount of time without a lot of help from anabolics. It can't be done in a few months naturally, especially with somebody on proven programing & well into their genetic potential. You should know that if you're in the field.

I never block anybody, but I'd suggest you really do block me & keep me blocked.

 

[Concept Coop]

for someone who claims to be super into reading about exercise and science, a gym rat, and up to date on the most recent information, I'm surprised you missed these articles

How Jonathan Lawson gained 20 pounds of muscle in 10 weeks

How to gain 10 pounds of muscle in 4 weeks

Juice.

 

[DropKick]

Hard to believe the back and forth here... What is certain is that a player can improve their strength, conditioning, etc., especially in their first full off season under an NFL training regimen.  Seems like a leap to assume either is at their "genetic potential". That goes for both players.  I feel a little more comfortable with Jones gaining weight that Williams losing it...  although I suspect the actual weight gained/lost is exaggerated.  At 6' tall, Williams wasn't overweight to begin with and I see more negatives than positives to the weight loss.

Williams should open the season as the lead back.   Jones will likely be suspended for the first few games.  Things evolve over the course of the season.  Jones will be in the mix and could play himself into a much larger role by mid/late season (when things really matter in FF).  

If I had to pick one, it would be Jones.  This is based on Rodgers' comments about Jones last season; more likely to play a role in the passing game (PPR) and the big play ability we've seen from Jones.  I remember a stat that Jones had 8 games with 40+ yard runs in his final college season too. 

One of the things difficult to quantify is individual player commitment.  There are guys around the league that work their tails off and others who don't... Maybe one of these guys "gets it" more than the other and that will be the differentiator.  There are also lots of situations were two backs on the same team are viable fantasy options.

 

[Football Jones]

Hard to believe the back and forth here... What is certain is that a player can improve their strength, conditioning, etc., especially in their first full off season under an NFL training regimen.  Seems like a leap to assume either is at their "genetic potential". That goes for both players.  I feel a little more comfortable with Jones gaining weight that Williams losing it...  although I suspect the actual weight gained/lost is exaggerated.  At 6' tall, Williams wasn't overweight to begin with and I see more negatives than positives to the weight loss.

Williams should open the season as the lead back.   Jones will likely be suspended for the first few games.  Things evolve over the course of the season.  Jones will be in the mix and could play himself into a much larger role by mid/late season (when things really matter in FF).  

If I had to pick one, it would be Jones.  This is based on Rodgers' comments about Jones last season; more likely to play a role in the passing game (PPR) and the big play ability we've seen from Jones.  I remember a stat that Jones had 8 games with 40+ yard runs in his final college season too. 

One of the things difficult to quantify is individual player commitment.  There are guys around the league that work their tails off and others who don't... Maybe one of these guys "gets it" more than the other and that will be the differentiator.  There are also lots of situations were two backs on the same team are viable fantasy options.

The thread got off track, but it was originally reported Jones gained 15 pounds & "bulked up". The vibe I was getting is that it would help him become a feature back. My point was you simply can't gain enough muscle in a few months to automatically assume it's going to help. The vast majority of that 15 pounds is going to be water & fat.

It turned out Jones likely only gained 5 - 10 pounds according to his RB coach which is more reasonable, but my point remains. You can certainly get slightly stronger in a few months, but an NFL player who should already be on proven programing, well into their genetic potential, & at a near ideal BF% is NOT going to undergo a big transformation in a few months.

I'm guessing Jones did improve his lower-body strength this offseason, but the translatable value is likely going to be minimal. We're talking percentage points. Could he be new & improved? Possibly, but unless there's a dynamic we don't know about, Jones pretty much is what he is at this point. Any young player can improve a fair amount as you alluded to, but we'll have to wait & see if that happens. You can't assume it.

 

[Concept Coop]

Can someone point me to a single example of an NFL RB adding 15 pounds of functional muscle in an off-season without negative consequences? Just one. 

 

[Biabreakable]

Can someone point me to a single example of an NFL RB adding 15 pounds of functional muscle in an off-season without negative consequences? Just one. 

https://thefalconswire.usatoday.com/2017/06/14/falcons-rb-tevin-coleman-puts-on-10-15-pounds-of-muscle/

There are actually more examples of this than one can shake a stick at.

Emmitt Smith came into the NFL much lighter than the weight he played at for most of his career for example.

 

[Bojang0301]

Can someone point me to a single example of an NFL RB adding 15 pounds of functional muscle in an off-season without negative consequences? Just one. 

Clinton Portis: 2005

2005 stats 

352 carries 1516 yds 11TD

30 rec 216 yds 0TD

 

[Concept Coop]

https://thefalconswire.usatoday.com/2017/06/14/falcons-rb-tevin-coleman-puts-on-10-15-pounds-of-muscle/

There are actually more examples of this than one can shake a stick at.

Emmitt Smith came into the NFL much lighter than the weight he played at for most of his career for example.

A guy claiming to have added that weight is common enough. (Them retaining it through the season is another story.) Ronald Jones made that claim, IIRC, but of course fell well short of that when he stepped on the scale. 

I don’t take such claims seriously anymore. These are, for the most part, world class athletes, very close to their ideal weight. 

 

[Biabreakable]

A guy claiming to have added that weight is common enough. (Them retaining it through the season is another story.) Ronald Jones made that claim, IIRC, but of course fell well short of that when he stepped on the scale. 

I don’t take such claims seriously anymore. These are, for the most part, world class athletes, very close to their ideal frame and weight. 

So you do not believe the reports or take them seriously.

Why did you ask the question if you already had you mind made up and will not listen to things that contradict your opinion then?

 

[Concept Coop]

So you do not believe the reports or take them seriously.

Why did you ask the question if you already had you mind made up and will not listen to things that contradict your opinion then?

I responded to your specific example, of a player claiming to add “10-15” pounds. I’d love to see a more believable report. 

Edit: I also provided an example of a player making a similar claim and it not holding up.

Edit2: I don’t mean to continue the banter, and appreciate you hunting for reports. It just seems every year we hear about these guys packing on the weight, and it rarely if ever comes to fruition or matters on the field.

 

[Biabreakable]

I responded to your specific example, of a player claiming to add “10-15” pounds. I’d love to see a more believable report. 

Edit: I also provided an example of a player making a similar claim and it not holding up.

Edit2: I don’t mean to continue the banter, and appreciate you hunting for reports. It just seems every year we hear about these guys packing on the weight, and it rarely if ever comes to fruition or matters on the field.

So one example of a player claiming they were going to gain weight discounts all of the many many times that players have reportedly done that?

What could possibly make it more believable?

The weight of people fluctuates all the time. Have you not also heard that players lose weight over the course of the season?

It is not something that is static. It is constantly in flux.

Muscle weighs more than fat. So when a player adds more muscle they gain weight. I know this from being in the Army which has weight standards that they want soldiers to adhere to based on their height. They want soldiers to be much lighter than they usually are. Very typical for over half the platoon to need to be measured after they are weighed to determine if they are combat ready. When the soldier does extra physical training because of weighing more than what the listed weight, they tend to actually gain weight not lose it, because muscle weighs more than fat. These weigh ins are quarterly and this was one of my responsibilities to keep track of this information and also to work with these soldiers in a plan for them to set goals to achieve the weight the Army says they are supposed to be. The weight changes over the course of 3 months, up or down. It doesn't stay the same.

I completely agree with you that it does not usually matter at all as far as their performance, because weight is not a skill. The player is as good as they are and if they gain weight or lose weight it usually doesn't help or hinder their performance in any noticeable way. That has been my point all along.

One recent instance of a player losing weight and it helping their performance is LeVeon Bell 

https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2014-pittsburgh-steelers-training-camp-news-times-schedule-tickets-updates/2014/7/29/5947519/steelers-rb-leveon-bell-dropped-20-pounds-in-the-offseason

I am not sure about the science behind this, but the NFL does seem to believe that the ideal weight for a RB is about 220 lbs. There are many examples of a player being a top performer at lower and higher weights than this ideal, but it is very common for NFL RB who are lighter than this to gain weight and become closer to 220 as a result than they were before or of players who are heavier than this losing weight and becoming closer to 220 lbs. It is something that I have observed about players at this position doing for as long as I have been following football which is over 30 years now. It is pretty much common knowledge whether you choose to believe it or not.

 

[Interseptopus]

funny... 

first he's too small

then he put on weight but we shouldn't believe it

and finally, even if he did put on weight, it doesnt matter. 

so the original criticism was a bunch of crap. got it. 

 

[JetMaxx]

I responded to your specific example, of a player claiming to add “10-15” pounds. I’d love to see a more believable report. 

Edit: I also provided an example of a player making a similar claim and it not holding up.

Edit2: I don’t mean to continue the banter, and appreciate you hunting for reports. It just seems every year we hear about these guys packing on the weight, and it rarely if ever comes to fruition or matters on the field.

This is a perfect example of why I rarely engage in this kind of debate. 

 

[Football Jones]

I responded to your specific example, of a player claiming to add “10-15” pounds. I’d love to see a more believable report. 

Edit: I also provided an example of a player making a similar claim and it not holding up.

Edit2: I don’t mean to continue the banter, and appreciate you hunting for reports. It just seems every year we hear about these guys packing on the weight, and it rarely if ever comes to fruition or matters on the field.

Again, you're right to question it. Adding a fair amount of weight in a short time can certainly be done, but the vast, vast majority of it is NOT muscle. Very little lean muscle tissue can be added in one offseason with these guys.

Bodybuilders spend YEARS packing on significant muscle & their job is to add muscle. And most of those guys are on juice. It's absolutely ridiculous to think an NFL player (or anybody not on loads of anabolics) could add a lot of muscle in a few short months. If that were true, we would see huge transformations in NFL players all the time. It simply can't be done.

That said, what we should be talking about is not added weight, but any strength gains in relation to the amount of added weight. Size isn't necessarily an indicator of strength. It's why some of the strongest people in the world like Olympic lifters don't look a whole lot different than a normal person in street clothes. Bodybuilders go for size, not necessarily strength. The science behind getting big is a little different than simply trying to get strong. 

When I see a player who significantly "bulked" up in the offseason, I immediately question what it's going to do to his play. How much stronger did he get in relation to the weight gained? How much will the extra water & fat affect his play? Certain players can benefit by "bulking" up, but it's smart to be REALLY leery of RBs & WRs, especially, who add a lot of weight in the offseason. Very, very few RBs & WRs have ever been successful adding a bunch of weight in a short time simply because they're mostly adding water & fat. Portis gained weight over the years & was successful. He even claimed to have gained a bunch of weight in one offseason which could be true. Portis entered the league with a slight frame & is the rare outlier who got away with the added weight without affecting his escapability (or at least breaking even on an escapability/physicality swap). That's why I said earlier there's something to be said for getting bigger, but we have to see what it does to their play. You can't assume anything.

Ronald Jones is an example of a RB who might be able to add some good weight over time. He's 6' & has the type of frame where adding helpful weight is easier. I'm leery of his physicality & have other concerns, but RoJo may be able to get more physical without losing any or very little of his dynamic ability. We'll have to see.

 

[Football Jones]

Losing weight to help performance is a whole different ballgame. Depending on BF%, there are quite a few NFL players who could potentially benefit from some fat loss.

LeVeon Bell did quite well after losing a fair amount of weight. Totally different subject than an NFL player claiming to have added 20 pounds of muscle in the offseason, LOL. No, dude, a very small percentage of it is muscle. You mostly gained water & fat in your offseason bulk. It may or may not help, but in the vast majority of cases, they either stay static in regards to their play on the field or it ends up hurting them. Typically, the players who do this are trying to cover for a weakness (like Jones' lower body strength).

What I prefer to see is improvements over time rather than radically trying to change your body with rapid weight gain.

 

[Football Jones]

It just seems every year we hear about these guys packing on the weight, and it rarely if ever comes to fruition or matters on the field.

One of the more practical statements in this thread. It rarely helps.

Over time, sure, but you have to remember these guys are pretty much what they are as you see them unless there's a body fat issue or something. We're not talking about an untrained subject who no doubt could dramatically improve his body in a relatively short time with the good genetics & quality programming.

 

[Stuart Ullman]

Can someone point me to a single example of an NFL RB adding 15 pounds of functional muscle in an off-season without negative consequences? Just one. 

Agreed. It's just off-season fluff talk. Rarely does adding more muscle ever result in anything.

 

[Bojang0301]

2011 complete comprehensive study on height and weight correlation with RB fantasy success.

So essentially a certain posters “secret” formula right there online. Not that it matters in this tire fire of a thread. Whether or not Jones put on weight is irrelevant since he was always a fine size for a RB. 

Emmitt Smith, Clinton Portis, Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Jones are all backs that put on weight throughout their careers with great success. Saying otherwise and casually dismissing it makes you sound foolish. 

 

[Football Jones]

Agreed. It's just off-season fluff talk. Rarely does adding more muscle ever result in anything.

Yep.

Tevin Coleman is saying he gained 10-15 pounds. Ok, so what? How much of that is typical offseason weight gain? It's probably much ado about nothing.

How will this added weight affect him since it's mostly water & fat? How much stronger did he get? Will the water & fat just come off in training camp?

BTW, Emmitt didn't gain weight quickly. I think he came into the league around 200, then was listed at 205 for awhile, & finished his career about 210. He got a little thicker over time & certainly a bit stronger. Nothing out of the ordinary for a long career.

 

[Football Jones]

-2011 complete comprehensive study on height and weight correlation with RB fantasy success.

So essentially a certain posters “secret” formula right there online. Not that it matters in this tire fire of a thread. Whether or not Jones put on weight is irrelevant since he was always a fine size for a RB. 

Emmitt Smith, Clinton Portis, Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Jones are all backs that put on weight throughout their careers with great success. Saying otherwise and casually dismissing it makes you sound foolish. 

I'm not sure what that is, but no, it's not a certain poster's "secret formula", LOL.

Jones is somewhat smallish for today's ideal RB & he doesn't have a ton of dynamic ability. That's what people are concerned about with him. There are reasons why things have changed. Defensive players have gotten bigger & faster over the decades as have all NFL players as a whole, but there's still a lot of RBs coming into the league around 200 - 210. These guys need specific high ends traits to excel in today's NFL as long-term feature backs. The smaller they are, the more they need them. Their escapability skills, especially, have to be top-notch.

The top-10 RBs (FF studs) every year for quite awhile now has shown it's much better to be around 215+. Last year, only 2 RBs in PPR (McCoy & McCaffrey) were under 215 & in the top-10. In non-PPR, only McCoy. Pounds matter. I think some people have the idea there's not a lot of difference in somebody who naturally weighs 200 & somebody who's naturally at 215. They're wrong. That's enough to be in another weight class in some combat sports. Functionally, there's a fairly big difference.

 

[Interseptopus]

no dynamic ability. 

guy had how many 40+ yard runs in college, and he busted how many long runs loose last year, and he has no dynamic ability? oh boy... the bias / wishful thinking from jamaal owners on full display ladies and gents. 

what a great laugh for fathers day. thank you!

 

[Football Jones]

no dynamic ability. 

guy had how many 40+ yard runs in college, and he busted how many long runs loose last year, and he has no dynamic ability? oh boy... the bias / wishful thinking from jamaal owners on full display ladies and gents. 

what a great laugh for fathers day. thank you!

You didn't block me. LOL. 

What I actually said was "not a ton of dynamic ability". Also, I'm not pounding the table for Williams. I initially liked his ADP, drafted him in a league for value, & have since moved Williams for extra picks in the 2018 rookie draft. I love his physicality & overall game, but it remains to be seen if Williams has enough juice.

Jones, while more dynamic than JW, is lacking in the overall packge required to be a legit long-term feature back, IMO. BTW, Jones' long speed is rather mediocre, especially for his size. Something tells me Jones isn't going to be the breakaway threat he was at Texas-El Paso.

I advocated that people cash out on Jones if they could get a 2018 1st when the hype first started after he produced in a game. You could've ended up with one of the top RBs in what probably is the best class we've seen in awhile. Or maybe D.J. Moore if you wanted to go WR. Where would Jones go in the 2018 rookie draft if he was included?

 

[Concept Coop]

funny... 

first he's too small

then he put on weight but we shouldn't believe it

and finally, even if he did put on weight, it doesnt matter. 

so the original criticism was a bunch of crap. got it. 

You’re putting words in my mouth.

 

[FF Ninja]

This thread is the offseason at its finest. We desperately need some real news to discuss. 

 

[Concept Coop]

So one example of a player claiming they were going to gain weight discounts all of the many many times that players have reportedly done that?

What could possibly make it more believable?

The weight of people fluctuates all the time. Have you not also heard that players lose weight over the course of the season?

It is not something that is static. It is constantly in flux.

Muscle weighs more than fat. So when a player adds more muscle they gain weight. I know this from being in the Army which has weight standards that they want soldiers to adhere to based on their height. They want soldiers to be much lighter than they usually are. Very typical for over half the platoon to need to be measured after they are weighed to determine if they are combat ready. When the soldier does extra physical training because of weighing more than what the listed weight, they tend to actually gain weight not lose it, because muscle weighs more than fat. These weigh ins are quarterly and this was one of my responsibilities to keep track of this information and also to work with these soldiers in a plan for them to set goals to achieve the weight the Army says they are supposed to be. The weight changes over the course of 3 months, up or down. It doesn't stay the same.

I completely agree with you that it does not usually matter at all as far as their performance, because weight is not a skill. The player is as good as they are and if they gain weight or lose weight it usually doesn't help or hinder their performance in any noticeable way. That has been my point all along.

One recent instance of a player losing weight and it helping their performance is LeVeon Bell 

https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2014-pittsburgh-steelers-training-camp-news-times-schedule-tickets-updates/2014/7/29/5947519/steelers-rb-leveon-bell-dropped-20-pounds-in-the-offseason

I am not sure about the science behind this, but the NFL does seem to believe that the ideal weight for a RB is about 220 lbs. There are many examples of a player being a top performer at lower and higher weights than this ideal, but it is very common for NFL RB who are lighter than this to gain weight and become closer to 220 as a result than they were before or of players who are heavier than this losing weight and becoming closer to 220 lbs. It is something that I have observed about players at this position doing for as long as I have been following football which is over 30 years now. It is pretty much common knowledge whether you choose to believe it or not.

Putting on 15 pounds of muscle is going from Jamaal Charles to Melvin Gordon in a offseason. That would be pretty clear to the naked eye. I personally haven’t seen that kind of transformation, that I recall. That’s what would make it believable to me.

And I don’t mean to argue that people can’t put on that kind of muscle in that kind of time. Just that it’s extremely rare for football players. They do a lot of cardio and are usually very close to maxing out their frame. 

If it’s so common, can we see some Charles to Gordon level transformation pics?

 

[Biabreakable]

Putting on 15 pounds of muscle is going from Jamaal Charles to Melvin Gordon in a offseason. That would be pretty clear to the naked eye. I personally haven’t seen that kind of transformation, that I recall. That’s what would make it believable to me.

And I don’t mean to argue that people can’t put on that kind of muscle in that kind of time. Just that it’s extremely rare for football players. They do a lot of cardio and are usually very close to maxing out their frame. 

If it’s so common, can we see some Charles to Gordon level transformation pics?

FWIW most of the reports I have read are a player adding/losing 5 to 10 lbs not 15 or more in just one year and I haven't seen anything that says Aaron Jones gained 15 lbs it is more vague than this and I am guessing 5-10 lbs.

I would disagree with players who are still young as Jones is and early in their NFL careers as having maxed out their frames. Yes they do a lot of cardio and this is I think part of why they lose weight during the regular season, when they likely are not lifting quite as much or doing dietary things to gain weight.

I have no idea what you are getting at asking for pictures. There are pictures of Aaron Jones in the articles. Scrutinize them if you wish.

 

[Football Jones]

The main thing people are questioning is the single offseason transformations you hear about. Usually it's "bulking up". They typically down a massive amount of calories (lots of protein) & lift. Most of the S&C coaches nowadays will have them do less cardio in the offseason because it can rob you of some of the precious little muscle you can gain in a single offseason.

The bulk is whatever muscle they can gain, water, & fat. They gain the vast majority of their weight due to the calorie intake which helps build muscle. It's easier to build muscle in a calorie surplus. That's optimal. However, many of them end up close to the same weight once they go through training camp where nearly all the water & most of the fat come off. It's a process to squeeze whatever muscle gains they can get out of their body, thus, hopefully becoming stronger (which is the real key).

I don't know how many times I've seen these "bulking" stories only for the guy to look exactly the way he did the previous season. Some take it upon themselves to get bigger, but forget the strength part. It's like they're bodybuilding. The guys who end up with the big arms kill me. You couldn't pick a worse muscle group (biceps & triceps) to make big, especially for a skill player.

"Bigorexia" is a thing. It's obvious some players feel it's more important to be big than strong. It's a shame. 

 

[Hankmoody]

Oh yay this is still going on.

 

[Casting Couch]

Coach Mike McCarthy said the Packers will have a "running back by committee."

"We feel like we've got three guys that have all done, but they haven't done it over a long period of time," McCarthy said, "so I think it's just practical thinking from that position and realizing that it's a very demanding position." McCarthy did leave open the possibility of one player emerging as the clear option, but it sounds like all of Jamaal Williams, Ty Montgomery, and Aaron Jones will have a role to open the season, terrible news for each player's fantasy prospects. Perhaps someone emerges in camp, but this is shaping up as a situation to avoid.

 

[Concept Coop]

FWIW most of the reports I have read are a player adding/losing 5 to 10 lbs not 15 or more in just one year and I haven't seen anything that says Aaron Jones gained 15 lbs it is more vague than this and I am guessing 5-10 lbs.

I would disagree with players who are still young as Jones is and early in their NFL careers as having maxed out their frames. Yes they do a lot of cardio and this is I think part of why they lose weight during the regular season, when they likely are not lifting quite as much or doing dietary things to gain weight.

I have no idea what you are getting at asking for pictures. There are pictures of Aaron Jones in the articles. Scrutinize them if you wish.

I responded to the “15 pounds in an offseason” conversation, not to a specific report on Jones. 

15 pounds of muscle is the difference, to use another example, between AJ Green and Julio Jones. To claim to have made that kind of transformation in an offseason is a fantastic claim that would require more than “player said he added 10-15” for me to buy.  Who are these guys that end one season built like AJ Green and suit up the following year built like Julio Jones? I just don’t recall seeing it happen. Certainly not frequently, even assuming I’m missing a guy or two.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Coach Mike McCarthy said the Packers will have a "running back by committee."

"We feel like we've got three guys that have all done, but they haven't done it over a long period of time," McCarthy said, "so I think it's just practical thinking from that position and realizing that it's a very demanding position." McCarthy did leave open the possibility of one player emerging as the clear option, but it sounds like all of Jamaal Williams, Ty Montgomery, and Aaron Jones will have a role to open the season, terrible news for each player's fantasy prospects. Perhaps someone emerges in camp, but this is shaping up as a situation to avoid.

It's fun to speculate and back our favorite horse in this race, but this has been my take on the GB backfield since Lacy -- while traditionally GB hasn't really had a committee backfield, there is no question in my mind this is what they will do as all three backs have talent and can be used situationally.

One might indeed separate from the pack -- I am not discounting that possibility. The problem is guessing which one that will be, so for now it seems like the better fantasy play is to grab 1 of the two backs with the lower ADP to try and bank on potential upside. Right now I see Jones having the highest of the three with an ADP of 78 (with Williams ~100 and Montgomery at 124. Worth watching performance and ADP movement through camp and preseason.

 

[tkrull]

Grab one, hope one or both of the others get hurt, profit.

No one is putting up better than bye-week flex numbers unless we see an injury.

The upside is they all seem injury-prone.

 

[nirad3]

 

[DropKick]

I'm not sure what that is, but no, it's not a certain poster's "secret formula", LOL.

Jones is somewhat smallish for today's ideal RB & he doesn't have a ton of dynamic ability. That's what people are concerned about with him. There are reasons why things have changed. Defensive players have gotten bigger & faster over the decades as have all NFL players as a whole, but there's still a lot of RBs coming into the league around 200 - 210. These guys need specific high ends traits to excel in today's NFL as long-term feature backs. The smaller they are, the more they need them. Their escapability skills, especially, have to be top-notch.

The top-10 RBs (FF studs) every year for quite awhile now has shown it's much better to be around 215+. Last year, only 2 RBs in PPR (McCoy & McCaffrey) were under 215 & in the top-10. In non-PPR, only McCoy. Pounds matter. I think some people have the idea there's not a lot of difference in somebody who naturally weighs 200 & somebody who's naturally at 215. They're wrong. That's enough to be in another weight class in some combat sports. Functionally, there's a fairly big difference.

If you trust the weight on his draft profile, Jones came into the league at 208.  I think you also have to consider that, as young men, these guys can expect to become "thicker" over time  Perhaps he has had good instruction and is doing things differently/better than he had in college.  Below is a quote from the Green Bay running backs coach and he mentions "grown man" weight.  We're talking about big muscles in the legs and back.  Its certainly conceivable that Jones could gain 7 pounds and play at 215.   Yes, there is plenty of coach speak every off-season but its inexplicable how you dismiss any possible benefit to focused conditioning:

“He came back a little bit bigger and he’s still moving around pretty good with the added size,” running backs coach Ben Sirmans said, according to Bill Huber of Packer Report. “I think as he continues to get as I call it his ‘grown-man weight,’ that we’ll see some of that progress happen with him getting stronger.”

Sirmans noted after last season that he wanted Jones to use the offseason to get bigger and stronger, particularly in the lower body. It appears the Packers’ young running back answered the call.

“I think he saw also for himself what he could benefit from, particularly with his lower body,” Sirmans said. “He could benefit from playing stronger and not just from an injury standpoint avoiding those things, but also it will help him break more tackles and do those things.”

The Packers list Jones at 208 pounds. He rushed for 448 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie, with two 100-yard games and a 5.5-yard average. Instincts, quickness and elusiveness helped make him hard to get to the ground, and the extra strength and size might add to his tackle-breaking ability.

 

[grateful zed]

at this point im kind of embaressed that i post here. 

 

[Football Jones]

If you trust the weight on his draft profile, Jones came into the league at 208.  I think you also have to consider that, as young men, these guys can expect to become "thicker" over time  Perhaps he has had good instruction and is doing things differently/better than he had in college.  Below is a quote from the Green Bay running backs coach and he mentions "grown man" weight.  We're talking about big muscles in the legs and back.  Its certainly conceivable that Jones could gain 7 pounds and play at 215.   Yes, there is plenty of coach speak every off-season but its inexplicable how you dismiss any possible benefit to focused conditioning:

“He came back a little bit bigger and he’s still moving around pretty good with the added size,” running backs coach Ben Sirmans said, according to Bill Huber of Packer Report. “I think as he continues to get as I call it his ‘grown-man weight,’ that we’ll see some of that progress happen with him getting stronger.”

Sirmans noted after last season that he wanted Jones to use the offseason to get bigger and stronger, particularly in the lower body. It appears the Packers’ young running back answered the call.

“I think he saw also for himself what he could benefit from, particularly with his lower body,” Sirmans said. “He could benefit from playing stronger and not just from an injury standpoint avoiding those things, but also it will help him break more tackles and do those things.”

The Packers list Jones at 208 pounds. He rushed for 448 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie, with two 100-yard games and a 5.5-yard average. Instincts, quickness and elusiveness helped make him hard to get to the ground, and the extra strength and size might add to his tackle-breaking ability.

There can be some confusion when a thread gets off track, but I've never doubted somebody could gain 7 pounds (which could theortically help them). However, 15 pounds was the initial conversation & the vibe was it was going to help Jones become a feature back. My point was, hey, hold on. Do you realize what makes up the vast majority of that 15 pounds? Let's see what he can do with it.

7 pounds is much more realistic. Hold 7 pounds in your hand. Not real heavy, right? And that's going to be spread out essentially over his entire body. At that age, I wouldn't expect much of it to go to his belly so I could definitely see his legs & back getting noticeably bigger in a few months. That said, much of it isn't actually muscle tissue so how much stronger did Jones get? That's the real question.

You mentioned getting thicker over time which will certainly happen if they keep hitting the weights hard. It just depends on the player. Some guys don't like getting too muscle-bound. There can be a point of diminishing returns with flexibility & stuff like that depending on their body type, position, etc.

 

[DropKick]

There typically can be some confusion when a thread gets off track, but I've never doubted somebody could gain 7 pounds (which could theortically help them). However, 15 pounds was the initial conversation & the vibe was it was going to help Jones become a feature back. My point was, hey, hold on. Do you realize what makes up the vast majority of that 15 pounds? Let's see what he can do with it.

7 pounds is much more realistic. Hold 7 pounds in your hand. Not real heavy, right? And that's going to be spread out over their entire body. At that age, I wouldn't expect much of it to go to their belly so I could see their legs & back getting a little bigger in a few months. That said, much of it isn't actually muscle tissue so how much stronger did Jones get? That's the real question.

You mentioned getting thicker over time which is actually very likely if they keep hitting the weights hard. It just depends on the player. Some guys don't like getting too muscle-bound. There can be a point of diminishing returns with flexibility & stuff like that depending on their body type, position, etc.

Again, to quote their coach:  “I think he saw also for himself what he could benefit from, particularly with his lower body,”

As Zed mentioned above, this non-stop back and forth is embarrassing.   A good response to a claim that someone gained 15 pounds is that it sounds exaggerated (as I did earlier).  Move on.  You know these statements are imprecise.  No need to bicker endlessly.

 

[Football Jones]

Again, to quote their coach:  “I think he saw also for himself what he could benefit from, particularly with his lower body,”

As Zed mentioned above, this non-stop back and forth is embarrassing.   A good response to a claim that someone gained 15 pounds is that it sounds exaggerated (as I did earlier).  Move on.  You know these statements are imprecise.  No need to bicker endlessly.

Threads get off track depending on the topic. That's just the way it goes here sometimes. I didn't want to end it with simply saying "it's exaggerated". There's much more to it than that.

To be sure, Jones could've helped himself. It wouldn't be unusual in a RB's second season. That wasn't the main direction the discussion was going, though. It was more this super transformation thing people were talking about & it's just not possible in a few months with these guys. Getting a little stronger, sure. Better condition, sure. But not Superman-type stuff, LOL. Not in a single offseason, anyway.

There were a couple people who couldn't debate things reasonably, but it'll die when it dies. I'm not sure what else to say. I'm sorry you feel that way.

I made a post about the likelihood of a RBBC without mentioning the weight thing, yet you brought it back up. I probably don't have much more to say on the subject, but clearing up misinformation can be important. Info is essentially what we're here for. We learn from each other.

If everybody is done with the weight thing (I pretty much am), then let's move on. Fine by me. 

 

[zed2283]

Today's FBG view:

"This sounds about right. We should see Williams as the primary banger for the Packers offense as he can grind down opponents with multiple carries. Montgomery can be utilized effectively as a receiving back who could thrive if/when the Packers use a fast break offense. Jones is a good all-around back who might get a few touches here and there."

 

[Bojang0301]

I'm not sure what that is, but no, it's not a certain poster's "secret formula", LOL.

Jones is somewhat smallish for today's ideal RB & he doesn't have a ton of dynamic ability. That's what people are concerned about with him. There are reasons why things have changed. Defensive players have gotten bigger & faster over the decades as have all NFL players as a whole, but there's still a lot of RBs coming into the league around 200 - 210. These guys need specific high ends traits to excel in today's NFL as long-term feature backs. The smaller they are, the more they need them. Their escapability skills, especially, have to be top-notch.

The top-10 RBs (FF studs) every year for quite awhile now has shown it's much better to be around 215+. Last year, only 2 RBs in PPR (McCoy & McCaffrey) were under 215 & in the top-10. In non-PPR, only McCoy. Pounds matter. I think some people have the idea there's not a lot of difference in somebody who naturally weighs 200 & somebody who's naturally at 215. They're wrong. That's enough to be in another weight class in some combat sports. Functionally, there's a fairly big difference.

No. You’re wrong and that link shows that you are 10000000000000000000000000000% wrong. I caught wind of someone else quoting you but since you continue to not read/comprehend anything I post I will go back to ignoring you. You bring nothing to this board but trash. How someone so intellectually dishonest can write so many words is beyond me. You should be banned. You are a hack.

 

[Football Jones]

No. You’re wrong and that link shows that you are 10000000000000000000000000000% wrong. I caught wind of someone else quoting you but since you continue to not read/comprehend anything I post I will go back to ignoring you. You bring nothing to this board but trash. How someone so intellectually dishonest can write so many words is beyond me. You should be banned. You are a hack.

Dude, what are you doing? You don't know what you're talking about. This is the kind of stuff that brings the SP down. 

Just a quick look at the top-10 RBs (the studs) going back a ways shows it's better to be 215+. Time & time again. All it requires is going back in your leagues in years past if you have the capability & take a look at the top-10 RBs that particular season. There's been a slow trend towards the top RBs being bigger going back a fair number of years & the trend is getting stronger.

In 2015, 3 RBs in PPR & 3 in non-PPR were in the top-10 & under 215. In 2016, just 2 in PPR & 2 in non-PPR. Last season, only 2 in PPR & 1 in non-PPR. In fact, the simple majority of top-10 RBs going back into the early century are 215+. It hasn't been exactly linear, but there's been a slow progression towards the top RBs being bigger to where the last several years the vast majority of them are 215+. There could be small adjustments from league to league due to scoring, but my leagues are pretty standard PPR & non-PPR leagues.

Also, the flack I was getting from you & a couple others about my premise that the smaller a RB is, the more & better his escapability traits need to be is funny to me. Small RB's scouting reports are littered with concerns about their size. A pro scout will have more concerns about a guy who weighs 190, as opposed to somebody at 200, as opposed to 210. It's not rocket science.

The premise is common sense. Instead of discussing the premise, itself, I wanted to talk about how to implement it. I essentially mesh eyeball scouting with the premise & come to a conclusion, but thought there might be some discussion about how much you vary the "penalty per pound", how guys like Cook easily pass scrutiny at 210, etc.

I've been successful using the premise. I've always leaned to bigger backs in general, but one of the first times I actually applied the premise was when I was scouting Abdullah. At 215, (& with the same traits), he'd be an exciting prospect. At 203, Abdullah simply doesn't have enough lead in his pants given his skill set. That actually might be its biggest benefit (eliminating not necessarily advocating). If others see no value in it &/or see nothing to discuss, cool, but the idea small RBs don't need more & better escapability traits is foolish, IMO, especially in today's NFL. 

 

[Faust]

Packers second-year RB Aaron Jones "bulked up" this offseason in an effort to become more durable and better in pass protection.

This will elicit eye rolls from veteran fantasy players who know running backs "bulking up" rarely pays dividends. Packers.com noted Jones especially got bigger in the lower body. "I’m bigger all around," Jones said. "That’s something that’s going to help me in pass protection. ... I’m stronger, so definitely when a defender who’s bigger than me comes up I can hold my ground." Whereas backfield competitor Jamaal Williams shined in pass protection as a rookie, it was one of Jones' primary deficiencies.

Source: packers.com 

Jul 2 - 2:09 PM

 

[FF Ninja]

Suspended 2 games to start the season.

 

[mcintyre1]

Suspended 2 games to start the season.

NFL Suspends Aaron Jones 2 Games for Substance Abuse Violation

 

[gabes1919]

2 game suspension for Jones. I’ve been saying it was coming all off season. He may win the starter job eventually but JW has 2 games to grab it and never let go.

I still think Jones is exceptional but he lost a big opportunity. I own JW everywhere and now is the time to buy Jones to hedge those bets

EDIT: so I don’t sound like I’m trying to be such a know it all, I wasn’t buying JW everywhere because I’m any type of believer, he was just the cheapest despite the possible suspension. Now the pendulum might go the other way so if guys were trying to scoop up this backfield, you have a great shot to do just that with BOTH of the presumed early down guys having been cheap at some point this off season

 

[zamboni]

Jones owners just have to hope JW falters or gets hurt.

 

[az_prof]

Williams ended the season as starter and now will start the season as starter. Jones is playing catch up.

 

[Interseptopus]

Williams ended the season as starter and now will start the season as starter. Jones is playing catch up.

2 games is hardly catch up. Jones was inactive for the first game last year and he had no problems catching up and out performing JW

 

[Interseptopus]

The more I read about this backfield and try to figure out what's going to happen, I've settled on this, barring JW or AJ busting out and showing they can be the guy:

It truly will be a RBBC (unless 1 emerges). I dont expect that to happen, if it does, until week 5 or 6.

Ty Montgomery is going to be huge this year in ppr when healthy. lots of receptions. they're going to feature him in this offense. he will lead the backfield in fppg if he can stay healthy. 

Jones will out perform Williams statistically, even if Williams is on the field for the 1st play from scrimmage each game. 

if one of these backs get hurt, obviously an uptick for the other two, and that's what it might take for a guy to emerge