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RB Aaron Jones, MIN (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
JamieMurphy
Footballguy
Playing Jones with the expectation that Ty will be limited because of his ribs and Jones's stellar play
Football Jones
Footballguy
Any further thoughts on Jones? Obviously, the best evals are done at the pro level so taking a closer look at him these past two weeks, I'm starting to think he's a guy who gets what's blocked. Not saying Jones is JAG because he's a decent prospect, but I'm still of the opinion he doesn't have special enough traits to be a long-term feature back.
That said, I'm much more fluid with my rankings than most FFers, but Jones is really going to have to show something for me to get on board. Losing Rodgers could hurt his FF production, but it has the potential to be a benefit if he's up to it (going to more of a run-based offense). Either way, it doesn't change the scouting report.
That said, I'm much more fluid with my rankings than most FFers, but Jones is really going to have to show something for me to get on board. Losing Rodgers could hurt his FF production, but it has the potential to be a benefit if he's up to it (going to more of a run-based offense). Either way, it doesn't change the scouting report.
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JFS171
Footballguy
One thing that stood out to me in the Dallas game was that Jones started ripping off chunk plays in the second half. His first half production wasn't stellar, and then after the break it was consistent chunk plays. Perhaps he needs to get lathered up for 15+ carries a week to really shine. That's not going to happen in they're splitting carries like they were this past Sunday, especially with Hundley at QB.
I don't think the split is really going to work too well for either guy, personally, but I'm not sure what else GB is going to do. They did seem to be giving each guy a series instead of a few plays and then pulled. Jones was in on the final drive, though it could've just been the rotation.
Gonna take time to settle out, and without Rodgers, it may not be the fantasy jackpot we were hoping for.
ETA - there's this I guess:
Problem is Montgomery got 10 carries and 3 targets on 20 snaps. Telegraphing usage much?
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sho nuff
Footballguy
Yesterday will make it nearly impossible to really judge any of the Packers.
Rodgers hurt and Hundley thrown in...Montgomery first game back...3 of 5 starting OL out...I mean by the end of the game there were 3rd string guards playing tackle. And a very strong defensive front that showed no respect for the passing game once Rodgers went out.
I think its a hold and see situation still.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Aaron Jones played on 43 offensive snaps (65%) 13 rushing attempts 41 yards (3.2 ypc) 4 targets 1 reception 1 yard
Ty Montgomery played on 20 offensive snaps (30%) 10 rushing attempts 28 yards (2.8 ypc) 3 targets 1 reception 3 yards
Ty Montgomery played on 20 offensive snaps (30%) 10 rushing attempts 28 yards (2.8 ypc) 3 targets 1 reception 3 yards
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I doubt this. More likely a mediocre DAL run defense got tired as the game went on, and went from not very good to even less good at stopping the run, especially with ARod to worry about in the air.
TyMont looked good in limited action, and I didn’t see anything from Jones this week that separated him. So as Montgomery heals I expect Jones role to diminish.
They alternated series this week. Ty got the start. I’m betting next week it’ll be 2 series Ty, one Jones. Then after another week it’ll be mostly Ty again, assuming no health setbacks.
The Packers should turn more run-heavy without Rodgers, so there’s a larger pie for Ty/Jones to slice up, but IMO when Ty is 100%, Jones won’t be worthy of starting at Flex.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The play time percentage in the most recent game does not support Hot Sauce Guys point of view, although that may be related to Montgomery not being at full health yet.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Careful now those are fighting words.
I agree with sho nuffs view that the most recent game isn't a good indicator of what may happen going forward.
I do agree with HSGs point about the Packers perhaps leaning on the running game more now without Rodgers, that makes sense.
eta- If Jones or Mongomery had put up better performance against the Vikings than they did, then that would be something to talk about. But they didn't.
I agree with sho nuffs view that the most recent game isn't a good indicator of what may happen going forward.
I do agree with HSGs point about the Packers perhaps leaning on the running game more now without Rodgers, that makes sense.
eta- If Jones or Mongomery had put up better performance against the Vikings than they did, then that would be something to talk about. But they didn't.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That was part of my point of view. Montgomery started the game and they alternated series.
Ty has broken ribs, is wearing a flak jacket. As Ty gets healthy, his role will grow. That was exactly my POV, which you seemed to realize at the end of your post.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah I am just disagreeing with the point of view that Mongomery will earn more playing time than Jones once fully healthy.That was part of my point of view. Montgomery started the game and they alternated series.
Ty has broken ribs, is wearing a flak jacket. As Ty gets healthy, his role will grow. That was exactly my POV, which you seemed to realize at the end of your post.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He did in the preseason. Why wouldn't he now? The Packers clearly prefer Ty as the feature back. He didn't get Wally Pipp'd. Jones didn't beat him out of a job with 1 game against DAL, regardless of how much Jones owners wish that to be true.
Jones hasn't looked particularly better than Montgomery given a level playing field. In Sunday's game playing against the same (tough) MIN D/ST, Jones averaged a paltry .4 YPC over Ty, and Ty has broken ribs. Nothing eye opening about that - and Ty offers more in the receiving game.
Time of course will tell - I may be wrong. It's happened before. But IMO Ty Montgomery isn't going to be relegated to a 3rd down/receiving role as Rotowrong suggested in their mid-week updates. As evidenced by Ty getting the start. It doesn't seem like much, who starts the game vs who gets more play - obviously they played Jones more. But who gets the start is symbolic. Always has been. And Ty getting the start seems to me to indicate that's going to be the case going forward.
When healthy I expect Ty to again be featured. And again, I might be wrong. Time will tell.
JFS171
Footballguy
Because he wasn't very efficient with his touches the first few weeks and they were bringing along a rookie slowly? IMO winning the battle in the preseason has little bearing on where we go now. They'll play the best guy, which may well be Monty ... I just think it plausibly could be Jones.
Time will tell, as you said.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
SOS plays into it as well.
Montgomery’s numbers were more impressive overall than his YPC would indicate his first few games.
and again: against the Vikings, they were both inefficient runners.
So another question is
1. What would TyMont have done against that same cowboys team on same # of carries?
2. What has AJones done to separate himself and take the role?
on #1 we can’t say definitively. On #2 i would say “not much”.
if you look at the game Montgomery got hurt, he was averaging 8+ YPC. The first 5 plays were TyMont runs. Without the broken ribs he was going to have a break out game. It looked obvious to everyone including coaches who kept feeding him the rock on that 1st drive.
so yes - time will tell. But I don’t see the “bringing the rookie along” scenario since he was 3rd string. I also do see it as relevant that Montgomery was the starter for this week’s game, which you didn’t bold.
I wrote a lot more than 1 sentence there. lol
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JFS171
Footballguy
I think the bringing the rookie along had more to do with Aaron Jones' pass pro issues than anything, which has been exhaustively reported as the reason Williams was ahead of Jones.
Again, I'm not knocking Montgomery's talent, but I don't think he's a natural running back in the way that Jones is. It's plausible to me that Jones being 100% the RB and 80% the receiver is better for the Packers than Ty being 80% the running back and 100% the receiver, if that makes sense.
End of the day, what do I know? We'll see ...
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I disagree but saying rotowrong is a good zinger.
I have already stated that Montgomery wasn't used as a feature RB much during the regular season last year. Preseason was a bunch of coach speak in my opinion. They did start out giving Mongomery feature RB touches over the rookies, he got hurt pretty quickly (him running with poor pad level likely contributed to him getting hurt imo) and wasn't particularly effective in that role as a runner.
Aaron Rodgers hurt now, boxes will become heavier, but as you say the Packers may try to run the ball more to help their inexperienced QB starter.
Which guy is the better runner?
I think that is Jones.
Only time will tell. We definitely agree about that.
The logic I am applying assumes rational coaching. May not be applicable here as they started Montgomery against a tough defense when he likely was not fully healed yet.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I disagree but saying rotowrong is a good zinger.
I have already stated that Montgomery wasn't used as a feature RB much during the regular season last year. Preseason was a bunch of coach speak in my opinion. They did start out giving Mongomery feature RB touches over the rookies, he got hurt pretty quickly (him running with poor pad level likely contributed to him getting hurt imo) and wasn't particularly effective in that role as a runner.
Aaron Rodgers hurt now, boxes will become heavier, but as you say the Packers may try to run the ball more to help their inexperienced QB starter.
Which guy is the better runner?
I think that is Jones.
Only time will tell. We definitely agree about that.
The logic I am applying assumes rational coaching. May not be applicable here as they started Montgomery against a tough defense when he likely was not fully healed yet.
It’s an interesting discussion & football aside it’s refreshing that we all have a different perspective and can respectfully talk about it - makes the disagreement more fun.
I think @Biabreakable had an insightful comment at the end about “rational coaching” - in the case of GB, that may not be the case since they pretty clearly want to make TyMont the Feature Back happen.
And to @JFS171 point about 80% the RB & 100% the receiver vs 80% the receiver &100% the RB, I’ll say it’s a great point. But it may also be relevant that TyMont knows the offense much much better. So you kind of have to expand that line of reasoning.
is it better to have ~20% more RB ability knowing ~60% of the playbook? Or is the potential dropoff in ability as a pure runner worth gaining those options on offense.
one could also argue that the playbook may be designed around TyMont’s skill set, since that’s what GB went into the season with. There’s little down the playbook was simplified against DAL, and it appeared to be against the Vikes too with AJones on the field.
So there are a few other factors worth considering here.
will be interesting to see how it all shakes out, but I appreciate the respectful discussion regardless.
ps - I wish I could take credit for rotowrong, but that’s from another discussion community a long time back.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
On a side note, that's what I like best about these forums for most people with level heads. In the past I know I've clashed a little bit but tried very much so to tone it down. Biabreakable typically has very good insight, especially with RBs. I enjoy reading his posts very much, even if I disagree- he has good points that make me think. Not to leave JFS out of it either... he's got some great insight- last year we had several great conversations regarding running backs and injuries.It’s an interesting discussion & football aside it’s refreshing that we all have a different perspective and can respectfully talk about it - makes the disagreement more fun.
I think @Biabreakable had an insightful comment at the end about “rational coaching” - in the case of GB, that may not be the case since they pretty clearly want to make TyMont the Feature Back happen.
And to @JFS171 point about 80% the RB & 100% the receiver vs 80% the receiver &100% the RB, I’ll say it’s a great point. But it may also be relevant that TyMont knows the offense much much better. So you kind of have to expand that line of reasoning.
is it better to have ~20% more RB ability knowing ~60% of the playbook? Or is the potential dropoff in ability as a pure runner worth gaining those options on offense.
one could also argue that the playbook may be designed around TyMont’s skill set, since that’s what GB went into the season with. There’s little down the playbook was simplified against DAL, and it appeared to be against the Vikes too with AJones on the field.
So there are a few other factors worth considering here.
will be interesting to see how it all shakes out, but I appreciate the respectful discussion regardless.
ps - I wish I could take credit for rotowrong, but that’s from another discussion community a long time back.
I think I have to agree with Biabreakable that Jones is the better runner. I also think it's a lot to ask your backup QB starting his first NFL game ever to win a ball game with a rookie RB also starting one of his first games ever... Ty at least offers some familiarity with the offense and even with Hundley. However, I think Jones' skill set fits what Hundley will be asked to do more.
In the end, I'm not sure either back will do much as long as 12 is on the sidelines. GB will likely be needing to throw a lot. The running game in GB benefited greatly from teams worried about 12... now they can force Hundley to beat them... and if I'm a DC I like those odds as Hundley when under pressure seems to panic and that affects his already shaky accuracy down field.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I understood JFS comments about the running ability vs passing ability I think, and HSGs comments about experience with the offense would be another factor to consider on top of that as well.
Taking that idea a step further, perhaps with Aaron Rodgers who causes a light box and defensive attention to contain him, having a RB who is a better receiver may be more ideal for them and Rodgers. They maybe don't need a player who is as good at running the ball under these circumstances.
With Hundley if they want to run the ball more to support his play, then maybe they will prefer a RB who is a better runner for the inverse reasons.
Anyhow doesn't really matter to me that much what they do here until week 15, so I will just see how this shakes out.
Taking that idea a step further, perhaps with Aaron Rodgers who causes a light box and defensive attention to contain him, having a RB who is a better receiver may be more ideal for them and Rodgers. They maybe don't need a player who is as good at running the ball under these circumstances.
With Hundley if they want to run the ball more to support his play, then maybe they will prefer a RB who is a better runner for the inverse reasons.
Anyhow doesn't really matter to me that much what they do here until week 15, so I will just see how this shakes out.
JFS171
Footballguy
Good discussion, all around. I may have less interest simply because Rodgers being hurt downgrades the entire offense so severely. However I can see all the angles previously argued here. I could see the Packers justifying this pretty much any way.
The only other thing I’ll add - part of why I bet on Jones and traded Ty away in dynasty and keeper leagues before the season was that I don’t believe Ty can stay healthy as a feature back. Perhaps he can on a 30% share of the work, but maybe it nets out better for them both to have Ty get 10-12 touches on 30-35% of the snaps while Jones gets 18-22 touches on 65-70% of the snaps.
The only other thing I’ll add - part of why I bet on Jones and traded Ty away in dynasty and keeper leagues before the season was that I don’t believe Ty can stay healthy as a feature back. Perhaps he can on a 30% share of the work, but maybe it nets out better for them both to have Ty get 10-12 touches on 30-35% of the snaps while Jones gets 18-22 touches on 65-70% of the snaps.
DropKick
Footballguy
Applaud the objectivity. My fear is the Rodgers injury has sucked the joy out of rooting for either one of these guys.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
FWIW, Waldman had a really fantastic and insightful breakdown (despite the shaky, nausea-inducing video clips he posts -- yes, it's a bone this dog will not let go of) of Hundley, his talent, and what gaps he fills -- and doesn't -- in Rodger's absence in this GB offense.
Don't want to tear down the wall on paid content, but Waldman made a point that he thinks Hundley's skill set is less proficient in touch passes in the flats and in screens, with outlet tosses, and with calling audibles and shifts/hot reads at the line (few are as good as the elite QBs like Rodgers so not a big surprise with this one).
Point being that if GB relies less on these kinds of plays, all RBs suffer a little more, and IMO, Ty more than Jones given that these kinds of plays (and Rodgers ability to set them up) really were bread and butter for Montgomery's production, where as Jones has more pure RB skills in running with power between the tackles and with quickness to the outside.
Don't want to tear down the wall on paid content, but Waldman made a point that he thinks Hundley's skill set is less proficient in touch passes in the flats and in screens, with outlet tosses, and with calling audibles and shifts/hot reads at the line (few are as good as the elite QBs like Rodgers so not a big surprise with this one).
Point being that if GB relies less on these kinds of plays, all RBs suffer a little more, and IMO, Ty more than Jones given that these kinds of plays (and Rodgers ability to set them up) really were bread and butter for Montgomery's production, where as Jones has more pure RB skills in running with power between the tackles and with quickness to the outside.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
does anyone still want to take pot shots at me now?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Well, I stand corrected. I was sure Montgomery wouldn’t get Wally Pipp’d, and thought this was a good matchup for both RBs this week.
wasnt expecting Montgomery to disappear.
What a waste of talent. Packers are a mess right now. Hundley can’t be this bad after all that time in the system, can he?
Jones looked great today. Very impressed. Nice pickup to everyone who grabbed him. Hard to trust week to work with the overall offensive woes, but this was a nice game for him.
wasnt expecting Montgomery to disappear.
What a waste of talent. Packers are a mess right now. Hundley can’t be this bad after all that time in the system, can he?
Jones looked great today. Very impressed. Nice pickup to everyone who grabbed him. Hard to trust week to work with the overall offensive woes, but this was a nice game for him.
dipandglide
Footballguy
I left him on the bench to see how the situation with him, Mont, and Hundley played out. Oops. It looks like he's fully taken over and should get 70%+ of the touches going forward
Hurl Bruce
Footballguy
I did the same. It will probably be the difference between a comfortable win and sweating one out. Oh well...it's worth getting the (hopeful) piece of mind going forward with his role.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Same here. missing out on these points hurt but possibly having another startable RB may save my season.
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
I see a lot of oofing in here.
Pipes
Footballguy
I don't think so at least based on the eyeball test Jones looks quicker and more decisive than Monty. He looks like the real deal to me.
Gracchi Bros
Footballguy
Ty is a WR, its a semi controversial opinion, but it what it what it is. Jones is a lock for 15-20 totes a game. Im starting him over Martin every week after his bye.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Aaron Jones' 131 Yards & 1 TD vs. New Orleans! | Saints vs. Packers | Wk 7 Player Highlights
I think he is legit. Great burst and acceleration, good pad level and decent vision to identify the creases and cut back lanes. He is showing similar traits at the pro level as I saw from him in college. It has translated. What is nice to see from this most recent game is Jones doing more damage running between the tackles. I think what he is doing is sustainable and should only improve as he becomes more integrated with the passing game (he is capable of that) and when the Packers get Rodgers back.
You have to temper performance expectations based on the opponent of course. Two big games against the Cowboys and Saints, not exactly great defenses, sandwiched around a not very good game against the Vikings who are a good defense.
I hate giving up 1st round picks in dynasty for any player, especially a RB. Thats buying high. I think there are always opportunities to acquire players like Jones with a much lower investment than this. Throw enough good prospects at the wall and eventually some of them will hit. I would much rather be doing that than chasing break out performers like Jones after the fact, but I suppose he is worth that. If I had Jones in dynasty I wouldn't necessarily be jumping at the opportunity to sell him for that right now while he could be useful.
As far as if the Packers will add another good RB through the draft next year?
I don't know and I guess I would like to hear Packer fans thoughts on that, who understand more of the nuances and goals of the organization than I do.
Looking at the Packers draft history, they haven't been a team to use 1st round picks at RB. Ever. Eddie Lacy is perhaps the highest pick they have used on a RB over the past decade and longer. I think it would take a really special opportunity for them to stray from that philosophy.
Part of it depends on how well Jones performs over the rest of the season as well. If he keeps having good games like this in a few more games over the rest of the year, then I think they will have confidence in him and there won't be a high pick invested at the RB position because of that.
What we haven't seen from Jones with the Packers yet is him doing really good things as a receiver. I do think that is something they want their RB to do. So how he progresses in that area (or not) will be part of their decision. They do still have Montgomery who they like, who could still fill that role for them if Jones doesn't prove capable in that area. I think Jones could be a good receiving option as well though, which would make him the total package. We just haven't seen that yet. I do note that Jones had 3 receptions in the most recent game, only 7 yards however. I think we need to see more there before turning that page.
If the Packers do add another RB next season, I think it will be a bruiser type RB that would compliment Jones. They did seem to like having that with Lacy and Starks for a time and they still may like to have that hammer RB who can get tough yards for them in short yardage and goal line situations.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Week 7 vs the Saints
Aaron Jones 44 offensive snaps (80%) 17 rushing attempts 131 yards (7.7 ypc) 1 TD 5 targets 3 receptions 7 yards
Ty Montgomery 7 offensive snaps (13%) 4 rushing attempts 6 yards (1.5 ypc) 2 targets 1 reception 9 yards
Aaron Jones 44 offensive snaps (80%) 17 rushing attempts 131 yards (7.7 ypc) 1 TD 5 targets 3 receptions 7 yards
Ty Montgomery 7 offensive snaps (13%) 4 rushing attempts 6 yards (1.5 ypc) 2 targets 1 reception 9 yards
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Just my opinion but Jones should continue to be the lead back. He passes the eye test. He looks like a good RB. However, Montgomery is a decent RB and a very good receiving threat. I expect the snap count to end up around 60/40 in Jones favor as Ty returns to health. As someone desperate for RB help in FF, I hope my guess is wrong and Jones' touches remain similar to this Saints game.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I did predict Jones would be the starter week 8, after their bye. I'm very likely correct here. However, I don't think Ty is going away completely...
Jones is the back to own, whereas Ty turns into that player that you can't drop just yet, but in no shape or form do you start him.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
So the big question that remains is how much Ty is going to be used since he is a good receiving RB. None of us really know that answer but we can guess.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Honestly, I think that this team needs to utilize the screen pass more, especially with Hundley. So I can see him having some value. It may take 2 more weeks to figure out what this offense is doing before being confident in that. But I do think they need more Ty
JFS171
Footballguy
I've been on the Jones train a long time, but I'm curious what you believe to be the reason for Ty basically being an afterthought this week? The bolded line above suggests you think health may have played a role, but Montgomery played more snaps and had more touches last week against Minnesota than this week against New Orleans. He also practiced all week.
To me, this week's usage was a giant endorsement of Aaron Jones as a RB, and THE RB for the Pack moving forward.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
What we should be discussing is what Hundley's poor play and McCarthy's odd play calling do for Jones. Jones is the only highlight to this offense right now. What is stopping teams from going 8 guys in the box (or 7) and telling GB go ahead and beat us deep? IMO Jones is a bigger threat than Hundley. Make him beat you. Granted, GB's WRs are talented and that needs to be accounted for, but if Hundley can't throw an accurate ball, what's the problem?
Jones was used early and often but as the game went on his usage decreased. I see that as an eventual trend, but I think he's good enough to get some RB2/flex points before the game gets out of hand.
Wish I had 1 more bench spot... was looking to grab him this last week. Ty's injury came 1-2 weeks too soon for me. Great pickup for guys who were listening on Jones. Dynasty, one of the better RBs from this class thus far.
Jones was used early and often but as the game went on his usage decreased. I see that as an eventual trend, but I think he's good enough to get some RB2/flex points before the game gets out of hand.
Wish I had 1 more bench spot... was looking to grab him this last week. Ty's injury came 1-2 weeks too soon for me. Great pickup for guys who were listening on Jones. Dynasty, one of the better RBs from this class thus far.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
We are thinking relatively the same thing. I think GB really likes Jones but I don't think Ty is 100%. I expect more Ty in the future as teams will start loading the box forcing Hundley to beat the. Ty will be inserted as a safe receiver for a not very good QB.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Offered the Jones owner in my league Brate/Ajayi for Jones. He has Bennett (TE25). Rejected. Kind of surprised TBH. Sucks playing with a bunch of 
I'd offer Graham and Ajayi but I know he'll reject that... Brate has been the better TE this season!
I'd offer Graham and Ajayi but I know he'll reject that... Brate has been the better TE this season!
