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RB Aaron Jones, MIN (1 Viewer)

Dr. Dan said:
Offered the Jones owner in my league Brate/Ajayi for Jones. He has Bennett (TE25). Rejected. Kind of surprised TBH. Sucks playing with a bunch of  :homer:

I'd offer Graham and Ajayi but I know he'll reject that... Brate has been the better TE this season! 
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I'm surprised that he shot it down. I'm not sure what his value is now.  I have a plethora of RBs in one league (Freeman, Ajayi, Jones, several others).  I couldn't even trade one plus Fitzgerald for a top WR. I felt like I was in the Twilight Zone. I guess WRs are too inconsistent this year, so people are overvaluing the top 5 or 6.

 
Good time to move Jones if you're skeptical of his long-term value, especially if you aren't hurting at RB.

Not sure what player deals I'd do, but you might be able to get a mid-1st for Jones in some leagues.

I'd jump all over that.

 
DocHolliday said:
We are thinking relatively the same thing.  I think GB really likes Jones but I don't think Ty is 100%.  I expect more Ty in the future as teams will start loading the box forcing Hundley to beat the.  Ty will be inserted as a safe receiver for a not very good QB.   
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I hope you are right.

We can say we haven't seen Ty back at full strength/100% healthy, and the normal full healing time is 4-6 weeks and we are right at the 4 week mark. So the Pack is still ensuring they don't rush Ty back to preserve his use in the latter half of the season.

Despite all the positive news we had about Ty's injury not being as bad as thought, that he was back practicing and playing and it's more of a pain tolerance thing, all of it went out the window with two stellar games from Jones, and two pedestrian ones (though he scored in one of those pedestrian games).

The fear is that there would be no reason to go back to Ty if Jones is equally, if not more successful, out of the backfield. And as much as I love Ty, it's been true. Ty's yards per attempt have gone down over the last few games, and the bread-and-butter usage as a receiver that made Ty valuable (from a total yards from scrimmage basis and in PPR) have not been there at all the last three games.

I'm resigned to the fact that my RB2 has lost his job, and the only hope is the one you point out -- Ds stack the box, force Hundley to throw, thus making Ty's skills more critical to the Pack's success. One bump in the road is that Jones reportedly has dependable hands, but we certainly haven't seen him used as a receiver much yet. 

 
NYRAGE said:
I'm surprised that he shot it down. I'm not sure what his value is now.  I have a plethora of RBs in one league (Freeman, Ajayi, Jones, several others).  I couldn't even trade one plus Fitzgerald for a top WR. I felt like I was in the Twilight Zone. I guess WRs are too inconsistent this year, so people are overvaluing the top 5 or 6.
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I was quite surprised. Especially since he has no one really at TE and he doesn't necessarily need the help at RB. The only reasons I can think of is either he is a huge homer, or he is thinking Jones is going to be a cheap keeper for the next 2 seasons for him. The later is possibly true, but I also think people are reluctant to trade with me. I've won 3 o the last 4 years and the one year I didn't I still took 3rd. I think people look at me interested in a player and figure that they better hang onto him because he must be good. Even if I'm giving away my roster for them. Kind of odd. The Jones owner is just as much out of the playoffs at this point as I am. Both of us have some hope, me more than him. 

Personally, I think Jones is the real deal. I am not sure if he has super star written all over him, but he is certainly the best back we've had in GB in quite some time, since Lacy's peak. Doesn't say much though. I think it's clear that Ty is going to get some carries. From what I saw to start the season, Ty looked great. Jones has looked better though in the last few weeks. 

 
Does anyone have a strong opinion on Jones market value in redraft?  I could use an upgrade at QB or WR...just not sure what I should expect in return.

FBG Top 200 suggests his trade value is roughly that of Wilson/Watson for QBs and in the Cooks/Crabtree/Baldwin range for WRs.

My gut tells me this guy is going to be the GB workhorse and worth more moving forward, but honestly I'm not sure if now is the time to sell high on potential or hold, wait, and see...any feedback is welcome.

 
So Jones was inexplicably dropped in my 12 team 0.5 ppr redraft today, spending all my remaining FABB ($31 out of $100) to try and snag him.

This guy has looked legit right?  I know he has a bad schedule but he seems to get some passing work too it seems like.  Just want to make sure blowing all my FAAB on him makes sense.  Have Gurley, Doug Martin, Kamara, Dion Lewis and DJ on IR waiting to return, can start 4 RBS (2 RB, 2 superflex).  My WR options aren't super either Crab and hop).

 
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ahartig said:
So Jones was inexplicably dropped in my 12 team 0.5 ppr redraft today, spending all my remaining FABB ($31 out of $100) to try and snag him.

This guy has looked legit right?  I know he has a bad schedule but he seems to get some passing work too it seems like.  Just want to make sure blowing all my FAAB on him makes sense.  Have Gurley, Doug Martin, Kamara, Dion Lewis and DJ on IR waiting to return, can start 4 RBS (2 RB, 2 superflex).  My WR options aren't super either Crab and hop).
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Blow it all, not sure if the 31 will get it done though.

 
papacapps said:
Does anyone have a strong opinion on Jones market value in redraft?  I could use an upgrade at QB or WR...just not sure what I should expect in return.

FBG Top 200 suggests his trade value is roughly that of Wilson/Watson for QBs and in the Cooks/Crabtree/Baldwin range for WRs.

My gut tells me this guy is going to be the GB workhorse and worth more moving forward, but honestly I'm not sure if now is the time to sell high on potential or hold, wait, and see...any feedback is welcome.
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It's tough to say, because the offense looks better through Jones than through Hundley. I have to imagine Hundley does better (can't do much worse). 

If I had him, I'd hold him. I think he's a RB2 the rest of the way. However I can understand if people want to sell. If he can land someone like Cooks or Baldwin, and I needed help at WR, I'd probably do it. With those guys you are getting more consistency. 

Like I said above, I offered Brate and Ajayi, as well as Graham and Abdullah for Jones and was rejected both times. Surprised. Now I hope he fizzles just to stick it to the guy. Unfortunately he likely won't. Won't be posting 20 point games the rest of the year, I think, but he'll be a higher end RB2 

 
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Dr. Dan said:
31 won't get it done
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Ya, probably not lots of guys left will all $100 left.  My league has some goofballs in it for sure.  last year someone dropped TY hilton after week 3     :crazy:

...... needless to say he went for $100 when waivers cleared.

 
Franknbeans said:
The Packers schedule will be getting a bit harder for him is maybe why he was dropped?
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Are many starting RBs dropped in your leagues because of their schedule? Guy probably thinks Ty is going to be healthy after the bye and is thinking RBBC. Maybe needs to fill a bye this week and Jones is his only drop? Regardless, he's an idiot. 

 
I'm holding, and I'll ride this train off the half finished bridge to the bottom of the canyon if that's where we're headed.

Jones looks the part.  The Packers giving him as much work as they did despite Ty presumably being more healthy another week removed from his injury is very telling to me.  The Packers are talking about Montgomery returning to special teams as a returner.  You don't do that without confidence that you've found your guy at the position.

On a nearly identical number of carries this season, Jones is averaging 2.1 YPC more than Montgomery.  Even with all the shortcomings of YPC as a statistic, that's a drastic difference, and more of Jones' sample has come without the benefit of Rodgers at QB.  

 
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ahartig said:
So Jones was inexplicably dropped in my 12 team 0.5 ppr redraft today, spending all my remaining FABB ($31 out of $100) to try and snag him.

This guy has looked legit right?  I know he has a bad schedule but he seems to get some passing work too it seems like.  Just want to make sure blowing all my FAAB on him makes sense.  Have Gurley, Doug Martin, Kamara, Dion Lewis and DJ on IR waiting to return, can start 4 RBS (2 RB, 2 superflex).  My WR options aren't super either Crab and hop).
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I'm skeptical about Jones' long-term success, but you don't drop him. Even if you thought Jones was going to suck the rest of the way (which I don't), he's got a lot of trade value, especially in redraft leagues. Not sure what this team was thinking.

It remains to be seen what Hundley can do & how good their offense will be, but if you're hurting at RB & believe Jones gives you a much better chance to make the playoffs, he's not a bad guy to blow 31 on & take a shot (as long as you can still pick up players for free in FA).

 
PhantomJB said:
Party over?
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Yup.

The time to sell high on Aaron Jones is over. This guy can't pass protect and considering the Pack have a weak D and are not built for power running they won't find themselves in a lot of games where he gets 15 carries per game. Ty Montgomery is the Duke Johnson of this offense now and may actually put up better numbers here on out and now they are mixing Williams in too. I wonder if Ty got hurt again because I was surprised Williams played late.

 
Curious about thoughts on Jones now. Obviously, a lot of folks will be frustrated. But what about long-term? He looked like a strong runner when I've watched, but I haven't payed close attention.

 
MikeHeel said:
Curious about thoughts on Jones now. Obviously, a lot of folks will be frustrated. But what about long-term? He looked like a strong runner when I've watched, but I haven't payed close attention.
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I commented a lot on this in the Ty thread. 

I think Jones may be droppable in 2 weeks or so in redraft. I don't think he has much value in the absence of Rodgers. Rodgers keeps defenses honest, and keeps GB in the games. Last night was a failure by the defense more than the offense IMO, but regardless both sides were not good. 

Ty will continue to be the trusted back this season IMO and GB won't be in many scenarios to run the ball a lot. 


Long term, Jones' value is tremendous, but in redraft I think he is highly game script dependent. Ty won't be going away any time soon, and Jones' value back to RB2 status is almost dependent on Ty getting hurt again, which is actually a good possibility. 

If you're in dynasty, I still think you have a gem. If you're in redraft, I think Rodgers getting hurt was the nail in that coffin. 

And to think I offered Graham and Ajayi for Jones a week and a half ago... not sure if I'd trade either straight up right now

 
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On the first drive GB went with the read-option, both Jones and Hundley looked good, and they moved the ball and controlled the clock with an 8-minute drive.  Then they scrapped the read-option and only had 15 minutes of possession for the entire rest of the game.  Hmmm.

 
I see overreaction Tuesday is in effect. Guy is 1 game removed from a 130 yd performance. Why would anyone drop him? On top of that Ty Mont has been injured half his career.

 
Bojang0301 said:
I see overreaction Tuesday is in effect. Guy is 1 game removed from a 130 yd performance. Why would anyone drop him? On top of that Ty Mont has been injured half his career.
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I see you aren't reading what I wrote. I said he may be droppable in 2 or so weeks. People dropped the starting RB for the GBP (Ty) after he sat out 1 week and played 2 more with broken ribs sharing time... why wouldnt' they drop the starting RB for that same (if not worse) GBP team if the next 2-3 weeks he's being out-snapped by the guy everyone just dropped? 

If Jones posts 2 or 3 more straight 5/25 yard games, do you honestly think people are going to hold onto him? In redraft I wouldn't want any part of this backfield now. I was hopeful Hundley would look much better and McCarthy would take the training wheels off and all would be good. The first two happened... McCarthy took the training wheels off a little and Hundley looked better. But, what I saw that I was grossly under-estimating how much Rodgers truly elevates this team. The defense is still bad, and we no longer have a playmaking QB to make up for it. The WRs have quit. No one is trying. Everyone knows this team is doomed and it shows. 

The GBP backfield at this point is at the same level as the NYG has been over the last 1-2 seasons IMO. Not worth any fantasy consideration. Ty Montgomery might have some value going forward as a receiving back. Jones blew a blitz pick up and never saw the field after that it seemed. Nothing exciting is happening on that offense and the game script certainly won't be in favor of the Packers rest of season. 

 
Thanks for the thoughts. I am picking him up as an add-on in a trade in my dynasty league. I generally keep a couple "lottery ticket" guys on the squad. I think that's where he falls at this point. 

 
MikeHeel said:
Thanks for the thoughts. I am picking him up as an add-on in a trade in my dynasty league. I generally keep a couple "lottery ticket" guys on the squad. I think that's where he falls at this point. 
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Dynasty he's a huge add on. He shouldn't be on any WWs right now, but potentially down the road for redraft only. 

GB has to upgrade it's OL, Defense, WR, TE this offseason... they just committed 3 drat picks (albeit late round) to RB, I don't see them spending a high pick on one next year to challenge Jones. I dont' see them bringing any RBs in unless they are late round or UDFA. 

Jones is the guy next year and beyond, and has potential to be a RB1 for fantasy purposes IMO. This year, just sucks losing Rodgers. One of those asterisk years by losing his QB.

 
kutta said:
Browns, Bears, Vikings, Ravens, Bucs, Bears, Bengals.

Yes.
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Totally agree, although I have a feeling that this isn't exactly a cake schedule.

 Bears might play Detroit tough in those remaining divisional games. They may have a rook in Trubisky, but he's looked pretty ok for a rook, and they have a solid running game and some guys who can catch the ball and move chains.

Bengals are a shell of what they have been offensively in years past but still wary that they can play up to teams on both sides of the ball given talent.

Vikings are really hard to read as Case Keenum seems so exploitable but has played well this year in terms of his W/L record and in helping the team put up over 20 in each of the team's wins this year. Not sure what to think of this team, but do know that Detriot found a way to completely stymie them in W4, so there's that.

The other teams really seem to be reeling -- Browns have been a hot mess all year, Ravens don't scare anyone offensively, and the Bucs have completely folded. 

So 3 favorable matchups. Not sure what to think about the other 3.

 
Dr. Dan said:
Dynasty he's a huge add on. He shouldn't be on any WWs right now, but potentially down the road for redraft only. 

GB has to upgrade it's OL, Defense, WR, TE this offseason... they just committed 3 drat picks (albeit late round) to RB, I don't see them spending a high pick on one next year to challenge Jones. I dont' see them bringing any RBs in unless they are late round or UDFA. 

Jones is the guy next year and beyond, and has potential to be a RB1 for fantasy purposes IMO. This year, just sucks losing Rodgers. One of those asterisk years by losing his QB.
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You think it's a given he's the guy next year and in the future over TyMont? 

 
LivingTheDream said:
You think it's a given he's the guy next year and in the future over TyMont? 
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If I had to choose between Montgomery and Jones I'd pick Jones... but my opinion is well stated in this thread. I think Jones can out-play Montgomery, looks more natural, and I do not believe Montgomery can stay healthy for a full 16 games. No way. I think Williams may cut into more of Ty Montgomery's role next year, but he looks like a bust so far. Some people have suggested that Montgomery move to WR given that Nelson is older next year, and both he and Cobb are making tons of money next year (Adams is a FA after this year as well, so if he walks they have Alison as their WR3). I don't see that happening; Ty is a RB. 

Ty Montgomery's contract is up after 2018, and I think he will move on. GB has a stud in Jones IMO. 

Sarlakticacid said:
Anyone know why Williams got some run on the last series over the other 2? Just superior pass pro skills?
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This was covered in the Ty Montgomery thread. I'm sure Football Jones will get a you-know-what over those snaps but it was a game out of reach, GB was playing backups just to end the game and save face on the injury front. If Rodgers was not injured I believe we would have seen Hundley for that drive. People I know who can give me some degree of insider information with GB say there's nothing to see here- Ty did not get hurt worse and Jones is just fine. 

 
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Dr. Dan said:
Dynasty he's a huge add on. He shouldn't be on any WWs right now, but potentially down the road for redraft only. 

GB has to upgrade it's OL, Defense, WR, TE this offseason... they just committed 3 drat picks (albeit late round) to RB, I don't see them spending a high pick on one next year to challenge Jones. I dont' see them bringing any RBs in unless they are late round or UDFA. 

Jones is the guy next year and beyond, and has potential to be a RB1 for fantasy purposes IMO. This year, just sucks losing Rodgers. One of those asterisk years by losing his QB.
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good analysis.  now make it happen!

 
Dr. Dan said:
If I had to choose between Montgomery and Jones I'd pick Jones... but my opinion is well stated in this thread. I think Jones can out-play Montgomery, looks more natural, and I do not believe Montgomery can stay healthy for a full 16 games. No way. I think Williams may cut into more of Ty Montgomery's role next year, but he looks like a bust so far. Some people have suggested that Montgomery move to WR given that Nelson is older next year, and both he and Cobb are making tons of money next year (Adams is a FA after this year as well, so if he walks they have Alison as their WR3). I don't see that happening; Ty is a RB. 

Ty Montgomery's contract is up after 2018, and I think he will move on. GB has a stud in Jones IMO. 

This was covered in the Ty Montgomery thread. I'm sure Football Jones will get a you-know-what over those snaps but it was a game out of reach, GB was playing backups just to end the game and save face on the injury front. If Rodgers was not injured I believe we would have seen Hundley for that drive. People I know who can give me some degree of insider information with GB say there's nothing to see here- Ty did not get hurt worse and Jones is just fine. 
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Looked at the play by play and all i saw was back ups

Cheers

 
What are owners doing with this guy?  Having a hard time thinking he's going to offer much value going forward after losing RT, best blocking TE, Hundley playing awful, and full RBBC seeming to come back. Is he droppable? Thoughts?

 
raydc said:
What are owners doing with this guy?  Having a hard time thinking he's going to offer much value going forward after losing RT, best blocking TE, Hundley playing awful, and full RBBC seeming to come back. Is he droppable? Thoughts?
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I’m holding for now...today will be big on that...if Ty is getting healthier and more work...then should be an easy drop.  50/50 split and 50ish yards with goal line work...maybe a desperation hold for injuries. 

 
sho nuff said:
I’m holding for now...today will be big on that...if Ty is getting healthier and more work...then should be an easy drop.  50/50 split and 50ish yards with goal line work...maybe a desperation hold for injuries. 
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I've got a tough call to make before the game whether to drop Jones or Danny Woodhead.  

 
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