oddsbodkins
Footballguy
Seems like he's closer to returning... most likely week 14. Anyone stashing or has Williams Wally Pipp'd him?
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RB Aaron Jones, MIN (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
To be fair, Jones Wally Pipp'd Williams, so it seems Williams has just taken the job back.
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
True. Also, schedule is tough against the run. Probably not a real help for this year anyway.
packer_junkie
Footballguy
Jones > williams.
Not close.
carry on.
Not close.
carry on.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
Wednesday practice is a good sign and this matchup is tantalizing. I just scooped him up just in case. Not sure how I'd feel flexing him though...
JFS171
Footballguy
For the record, Rotoworld is still reporting that he didn't practice, but that was from a previous tweet. The same beat writer then came back and said Jones was practicing.
ETA - the fact that Montgomery still isn't practicing on Wednesdays (non-padded practice) suggests to me he's not playing on Sunday. Tomorrow will be big for Jones, but he could be very interesting down the stretch if he can get healthy. Not sure what the mix will be between he and Williams, but Williams hasn't been efficient - he's just logged volume.
ETA - the fact that Montgomery still isn't practicing on Wednesdays (non-padded practice) suggests to me he's not playing on Sunday. Tomorrow will be big for Jones, but he could be very interesting down the stretch if he can get healthy. Not sure what the mix will be between he and Williams, but Williams hasn't been efficient - he's just logged volume.
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DocHolliday
Footballguy
I read that he only went through rehab today but is hopeful to return to practice by the end of the week. Not sure how this plays out. Maybe tomorrow brings more light on this.
JFS171
Footballguy
Rotoworld based their blurb on this tweet:
Several beat writers, including Ryan Wood, have since verified that Jones returned to practice. Jones was officially listed as limited. Montgomery was listed as DNP.
Football Jones
Footballguy
The elephant in the room is we haven't seen Williams with extensive time with Rodgers & the obvious difference in how Ds will play the Packers.
With a light box, Williams could be a real force with his physical running style & underrated athleticism. Look at his college tape. Williams is far from a plodder.
Williams was tentative early on, but you're now starting to see some of the aggressiveness & athleticism he showed in college.
I believe Williams has a lot more to give, but I wish we could see him with Rodgers.
With a light box, Williams could be a real force with his physical running style & underrated athleticism. Look at his college tape. Williams is far from a plodder.
Williams was tentative early on, but you're now starting to see some of the aggressiveness & athleticism he showed in college.
I believe Williams has a lot more to give, but I wish we could see him with Rodgers.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
While there is no question that Aaron Rodgers affects how the defense plays compared to Hundley, Aaron Jones wasn't just benefiting from light boxes with Aaron Rodgers.
He had 131 rushing yards against the Saints whos defense has really improved this year the week after Rodgers was injured.
You will not see a lighter box than what WIlliams was running against late in the game vs the Steelers. They seriously had no one on the line, everyone lined up 5 yards back or on the edges. Never seen a NFL defense run such a weak front and the Packers still passed the ball on almost every play against it, including 4th down. Not saying the Steelers played like this the whole game because they didn't. But that is how not worried they were about WIlliams running the ball for them to do that with only a one TD lead.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I'm just saying I like Williams with Rodgers a lot more than I like Jones with Rodgers. I really like that combination. Whether it works out or not, only time will tell.
I prefer Williams as prospect, anyway, but I especially like the dynamics of Rodgers/Williams.
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zamboni
Footballguy
My understanding is that the NFL won't suspend him unless he is convicted of a crime.
Given that he is an NFL player and not a working class stiff, he will probably just get probation at worst.
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I'm with ya. Williams + Rodgers could come close to what Lacy was doing earlier in his career IF it isn't a committee. I'm not sure what that other guy is talking about, though. Aaron Jones' stats in the NO game were inflated by a 46 yard TD run in which he basically ran straight, making zero moves. He played a good game, but that definitely skewed the stats. As for the "You will not see a lighter box than what WIlliams was running against late in the game vs the Steelers" comment...
If you watch every play, that comment is utter nonsense: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHC7n9ef1dU At 4:15 left in the game they had 7 men at the line! PIT was playing to stop the run and make Hundley beat them the whole game. After that play, though, Williams had 2 carries. His 4 yard TD and a run with like 30 seconds left against a prevent defense. So no, Williams did not benefit from playing against a light box.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
So the stats don't count because he made no moves? So if Williams does that this week, you have to discount it as well...I'm with ya. Williams + Rodgers could come close to what Lacy was doing earlier in his career IF it isn't a committee. I'm not sure what that other guy is talking about, though. Aaron Jones' stats in the NO game were inflated by a 46 yard TD run in which he basically ran straight, making zero moves. He played a good game, but that definitely skewed the stats. As for the "You will not see a lighter box than what WIlliams was running against late in the game vs the Steelers" comment...
C'mon. You know what I'm saying. I'm just trying to put things in context. If a guy is ripping off a bunch of 8-12 yard runs through contact to pile up stats, that's impressive. Running for a long TD via a straight line is just luck. So yes, if Williams compiled his yards via a lucky break I would definitely discount it. His long receiving TD last week was pretty lucky. The fact that 55 of his 67 yards against Chicago came after contact (and with 7 broken tackles) was pretty impressive.
ETA: Just to be more clear - I don't care about past fantasy points. I was mainly talking about ability and how that'll translate to future points. Jones definitely gets credit for those stats/points, but seeing as about half those points came from a lucky break, I'm not going to use that lucky break to predict future success.
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JFS171
Footballguy
I've said before that I've not been that impressed with Williams. I will also say that he's looked significantly better the last couple of weeks.
That said, for as flawed a statistic as it may be, Jones is averaging more than 2 more yards per carry than Williams, and nearly a yard and a half more per carry than Montgomery (5.3 for Jones to 4.1 for Monty to 3.2 for Williams). Jones didn't exactly have the benefit of Rodgers either, aside from one game (if you remove his stats from Dallas entirely - which also isn't fair to him - Jones is still averaging 4.8 YPC).
We don't need to rehash the whole Jones vs. Williams debate. I think the data's pretty clearly in one camp, but others feel differently, and what really matters is how the team feels.
As @zamboni said, until Green Bay shows us how they feel, we're all just blowing hot air.
Nobody can fault you for that take on Williams. His preseason usage was both sparse and relatively unimpressive, much like the first 8 games of the year. He's only really gotten play for 3 games and he's had to face some tough defenses that were clearly stacking the box to force Hundley to throw, so we don't have much to go on for either player. Like you said YPC is not a very useful stat, but it's even less useful when each player only has 70 carries. But while we're comparing meaningless stats, Jamaal is averaging well over 10 yards per reception while Aaron Jones is at 2.0 YPR. So it works both ways.
I'm lightly invested in Williams so I've got bias, but I invested in him for a reason. Like Football Jones, I like(d) his potential with Rodgers. He's a great pass protector who can bang through for tough yards (and TDs) and can run out the clock when needed. So far what I've seen is about what I expected, but with the pass catching being a nice bonus that I only semi-expected (had read that he had the ability/skill set but was not called on to use it in college). Jones strikes me as a poor man's Abdullah. I think his upside is 70% of Abdullah's. I like that kind of RB, but the fit has to be right and I just don't think his fit in this offense is as good as Williams' fit.
JFS171
Footballguy
PFF has one guy graded as the #7 Running Back in the NFL and the other guy graded as #38.
I don't have access to all the advanced metrics like yards after contact, elusiveness rating, etc., but I've gone into this before with Football Outsiders data too (DVOA, etc.). I think Jones is just flat better, and I don't really think it's that close. One could argue fit with the offense, and that's something I think is really hard to gauge without the offense fully healthy (obviously including Rodgers). The most plausible counter argument as that the team would be best off with the best player playing at RB.
I still find myself somewhat flabbergasted at the continual narrative that Jamaal Williams, at 6' 213lbs is some hammer while Jones at 5'9" 208 is a scatback. I just don't see it that way at all, personally. I also don't understand the doubts about Jones as a receiver when he was widely regarded as one of the best receiving backs in this class.
Opinions vary, i guess.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Like I said with ypc, sample size... PFF needs a good sample size, too. I like PFF's stats, but I believe how they work is that if someone got a finger tip on Jones at the LoS on his lucky 46 yard TD then that would count as 46 YAC and greatly skew his PFF rating. But either way, 70 carries isn't enough.
And I 100% get what you're saying about their height and weight, but this is one of the few times where the tired phrase "have you seen them play?" is a legitimate argument. Watch this run and tell me you can see Aaron Jones playing that physically: https://www.instagram.com/p/Bbaq4ZSHK1N/
Sometimes guys just play above their weights/BMI and to me Williams is one of those guys. But again, I agree with you that people are too quick to label some guys powerful and some guy not. But in this case, after watching all of Williams' carries the past 3 weeks, he's just a guy that hits the hole hard and can power through the "garbage". There are two types of elusive - guys who can force missed tackles and guys that can break tackles. Williams seems like a tackle breaker while Abdullah (I haven't watched enough of Jones to cite him) is the kind to force missed tackles. Every once in a while you find a guy like Lynch who can do both, but those types are rare/elite.
ETA: Forgot to mention... I didn't cite the 2.0 YPR to imply Jones isn't a good pass catcher or good after the catch. I was merely pointing out that, like your YPC reference, stats often paint an inaccurate picture of ability when samples are too small.
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JFS171
Footballguy
I will say I bristle at Abdullah being compared to guys I like because I'm not much of a fan of Abdullah's game. Jones doesn't seem to play small like Abdullah, to my eyes. I agree Williams' style of running plays bigger than his size - my point is simply what you said: I think it's way too early to perpetuate a narrative that Williams is Jerome Bettis, and Jones is Chris Thompson.
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Hah, yeah, I'm not about to call him Bettis (nor Jones Thompson)... I really think he could play similarly to how Lacy played, though. GB doesn't need a creator at RB to win. They need to convert 3rd and short and goal line runs, but most importantly they need to protect Rodgers. That's why I liked the draft pick by the Packers and why I targeted Williams over Jones.
And please re-think your dislike of Jones being compared to Abdullah. Abdullah plays like you would hope a guy with his SPARQ score would play. Watch his Vikings game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlfEaaDbSUE
Skip to 1:11 and 2:16 for some examples of his stop/start ability. And I think he gets unfairly knocked for his power. He can actually push through a tackle when he needs to. I mean, take it with a grain of salt, but 24 reps of 225 lbs on bench press indicates he's pretty effing strong. I'd be more interested in how many reps of 315 RBs can do on squats, but such is life...
Anyway, don't mean to hijack but I think Abdullah is a pretty favorable/optimistic comparison for Jones which is why I temper it by calling him a poor man's Abdullah. Would you prefer "poor man's Dion Lewis" as a comp? Both Abdullah and Lewis have some ankle breaking moves. I'd need to see that out of Jones before I am willing to make a direct comparison, though.
JFS171
Footballguy
Fair enough - and Abdullah has certainly had some moments, but it's never seemed to come together. Maybe it's the color of the uniforms or running style or camera angle or types of pads they're wearing or idk what, but Abdullah looks thinner in the lower half and smaller overall than Jones, to me.
And I like Lewis a lot better than Abdullah, but I'm not sure we've seen Lewis-level elusiveness from Jones.
Also - Lacy averaged 4.1, 4.6, 4.1, and 5.1 YPC in his 4 years in Green Bay. I'm sure they'd love to duplicate that from Williams (and I know the stat is flawed and the sample isn't big enough - acknowledge all those things), but thus far he's not producing like Lacy produced. Lacy had long runs of 60, 44, (then got really fat), 29, and 31. Williams long run this year is 12 yards.
Again, sorry to hijack but the offensive line play has been bad in Detroit (over all 3 years) and the play calling is not very inventive. Much like Dion Lewis, I don't understand why he barely sees any action in the passing game. But that
is for another thread.As for Lacy's ypc vs. Jamaal's, I think the quality of defenses faced, game script, and lack of Rodgers is to blame. Time will tell, though... well, maybe - if he keeps the job (huge maybe). I don't expect 5.1 ypc from him, but I think 4.3 ypc is a reasonable expectation over a full season with Rodgers. And when you play a full season with Rodgers, even a slowish guy like Lacy will catch a defense off guard for a long run. Neither Jones nor Williams are speedsters but Jones had the 46 yard TD and Williams had the 54 yard screen TD and those were without Rodgers. It's all about calling the right play at the right time.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
It's odd... you want to focus on combine results when it fits your narrative, but then you shrug them off when they prove Jones to be a better back. You point to 40 yard dash times and say "Jones isn't a speedster" but then you conveniently forget that Jones was the #2 RB in SPARQ scores in this draft and has a number of other extremely impressive combine statistics. Is it not true that speed looks different on a guy scoring #2 SPARQ vs someone who scored much lower? How often are these guys running 40 yards without needing to change direction at all?Again, sorry to hijack but the offensive line play has been bad in Detroit (over all 3 years) and the play calling is not very inventive. Much like Dion Lewis, I don't understand why he barely sees any action in the passing game. But that
As for Lacy's ypc vs. Jamaal's, I think the quality of defenses faced, game script, and lack of Rodgers is to blame. Time will tell, though... well, maybe - if he keeps the job (huge maybe). I don't expect 5.1 ypc from him, but I think 4.3 ypc is a reasonable expectation over a full season with Rodgers. And when you play a full season with Rodgers, even a slowish guy like Lacy will catch a defense off guard for a long run. Neither Jones nor Williams are speedsters but Jones had the 46 yard TD and Williams had the 54 yard screen TD and those were without Rodgers. It's all about calling the right play at the right time.
I've referenced this website a lot in multiple threads
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JFS171
Footballguy
More relevant news:
Not sure what the question mark was for, so perhaps that was either a typo, or Silverstein trying to interpret what a trial return means. Either way, Thursdays are full padded practices for Green Bay. Very good sign Jones is returning to practice today after getting in a limited session yesterday.
What's odd is that you take it that way. I merely said Abdullah performs like you would expect out of a guy with his SPARQ score. The combine is one of many factors that should be taken into account when drafting rookies. It absolutely doesn't "prove" Jones to be a better back than Williams. Saying the combine proves one player better than the other is just laughable. There have been a lot of combine warriors who absolutely flopped in the NFL. Furthermore, I think Abdullah and Dion Lewis play quite similarly, yet Dion's combine/SPARQ don't compare to Abdullah's. Actual play always trumps metrics. But yeah, I'll definitely point to the combine when you call Jones a speedster and Williams a plodder when their 40 times are basically the same. Jones is certainly quicker in shorts, but that doesn't make him some sort of Chris Johnson speedster.
Lacy and Williams definitely did not have good combines, but I think both fit well in GB.
I like how that article says Williams' "truck stick" rating should be 100 in Madden and it speaks to the playing style I mentioned that defies his BMI.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
stopped reading at "Abdullah." Stop with this obsession. They aren't the same.
Jones must really defy his BMI then if he can have such great sparq scores and be shorter and not much lighter than Willliams
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I know. Jones is the lesser talent of the two (both metrics and actual play in pads). But you should keep reading because the important note is that it is foolish to say combine stats "prove" one player is better than the other. If that was the case, it would take a lot of guess work out of the NFL draft.
I don't know how SPARQ is related to height or weight, so I can't speak to that.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Interseptopus
Footballguy
But you are using combine stats to say Jones isn't a burner. You are using Combine stats to say "Jones is a poor man's Abdullah" (you even referenced SPARQ).
It's not related to height and weight, whcih is why it makes Jones' scores so much more amazing; he went to the combine with a significant disadvantage due to his height and weight and still out performed the vast majority of RBs.
You said BMI, so I mentioned BMI above. Jones has a higher BMI than Williams. The fact that Jones is so athletic with a larger BMI than the RB yuo are impressed with should impress you even more.
I'm not getting into a debate about measurables. That's not the point. I just think its interesting when people use measurables to prove their point, but then disregard them when it doesn't fit the narrative.
No, I think he's a poor man's Abdullah because I think Abdullah is just the superior talent. It has nothing to do with SPARQ, which is why I went on to say that Abdullah and Dion seem similar to me despite the vastly different SPARQ scores.
Um, I don't know how familiar you are with physics, but if SPARQ is not calculated based on weight then the heavier players have their height and weight working against them. Agility drills are always going to favor shorter, lighter players. So the premise of your argument is about as flawed as it can be.
I only mentioned BMI because the other poster brought it up. It was a good point, but my issue was not with BMI but with how the two players actually played on the field.
So once again, I'm not using measurables to prove my point nor am I trying to disregard them. If you still think I am then you've either failed to read or failed to comprehend what I've been saying. The only place where a measurable is really important here is 40 time when someone calls a guy with a 4.56 fast while a guy with a 4.59 is a plodder. So like I keep saying, combine numbers are one of many factors for drafting rookies. It's not a critical factor and it becomes even less important once they start playing real NFL football in pads.
Yes, we both seem to value trusted scouts over anonymous eyeball tests. Call us crazy!
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Just popped in to say there is nothing more meaningless than a Sparq score for evaluating RBs. Most prototypical or big backs with great athleticism score lower, like Elliot, Fournette, etc. Conversely if a RB is athletic and built like Jerick McKinnon or Matt Breida, he gets a really high score. For other positions it may be valuable. But for RB, its a relatively useless metric that fails miserably compared to the eyeball test.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
It's like we're going around and around in circles....
I know I've said Williams looks like a plodder. but it's YOU who says that his 40 time is only .03 seconds slower than Jones so he can't be a plodder.
But then you said above, "It's not a critical factor and it becomes even less important once they start playing real NFL football in pads. "
EXACTLY!!!!! Williams looks like a plodder, so why does his 40 time have anything to do with this?! He PLAYS like a plodder. Jones plays way faster. You're the one bringing up his 40 times to debate against Williams being a plodder, whereas I'm using the eye ball test to say Williams looks slow and like a plodder (looking better now, but at the time I said it I was being kind by calling him a plodder)
(HULK)
(Smash)
JFS171
Footballguy
I don't believe Zeke performed at the combine. Fournette ran a 4.51 at 240 lbs. He then did the vertical jump (which was really atrocious) and sat out the rest of the drills.
Point being, I don't think there's an accurate sparq score on either guy. To your point though, guys like Lev Bell completely reinvented their bodies while in the NFL and would likely test completely different than they did as prospects.
Is SPARQ everything? Of course not ... but it also doesn't hurt when a guy is a superior athlete.
Football Jones
Footballguy
You don't seem to like how I view Jones. I don't know what to tell you, LOL.
In short, I don't believe Jones is physical enough or dynamic enough to be a long-term feature back. I'm not saying he's a bum, though.
I believe Abdullah is a great comparison for Jones. He really is. I wasn't high on Abdullah coming out for essentially the same reasons.
That said, I don't know if Williams can be a long-term feature back either, but I believe he's got the raw tools to do it.
I'm not even saying "he can't be a plodder"... I'm simply using the combine to point out how silly it is to pretend they are vastly different in speed.
It sure seems you only think Williams is a plodder due to confirmation bias from expecting him to be a plodder from the combine and then seeing him not break any long run in his very limited preseason and early season usage. At least give the guy a fair shot. When circumstance is taken into account, he's done pretty well the past 3 games.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I normally have you on ignore, I think you know why.I'm with ya. Williams + Rodgers could come close to what Lacy was doing earlier in his career IF it isn't a committee. I'm not sure what that other guy is talking about, though. Aaron Jones' stats in the NO game were inflated by a 46 yard TD run in which he basically ran straight, making zero moves. He played a good game, but that definitely skewed the stats. As for the "You will not see a lighter box than what WIlliams was running against late in the game vs the Steelers" comment...
I saw your comments here as Magic_Man quoted it.
I did watch the whole game and the clips you provide do not show all of the plays. I was talking about at the end of the game and the Steelers were playing very light box on this drive following the play you point out at around the 4 minute mark on 1st and 10.
There are several plays the Packers run including a 4th and long into the two minutes between plays on these clips where the Packers are passing that were very light on the line of scrimmage that are not shown that I was talking about. Hundley could have called an audible to a run play against these but didn't. The Steelers were clearly playing the pass, on one play not shown in the clips they had no one on the LOS in the middle of the field, all of their defenders were lined up in a bunch outside of the left tackle, some others outside the right tackle, a nascar type rushing defense.
On the 1st and goal run by WIlliams with 2:09 left in the game there was only 2 defensive linemen on the LOS lined up over the guards, 2 other defenders standing up lined up opposite the TEs. You call this a prevent defense but do not get the time remaining on the play right. It seems we agree this is a pretty light box.5 linemen and the TE vs 6 defenders in the box with 4.5 yards to the goal.
The left guard pulls across to the right where the defense is weakest. The right tackle blocks Bud Dupree inside of the play, using his pass rush against him. The guard has to avoid this traffic as he pulls across. The center blocks the nose tackle to the left clearing him out of the lane. The TE and Jordy Nelson block the other two defenders effectively and the lane opens up to the right. The guard pulling across blocks the safety who is the only defender unblocked on the play. Hand off to Williams is right up the gut who gets to the 2 yard line before the one defender disengages from his block by the TE. Williams is already leaping forward into the end zone by this time however and WIlliams scores the TD easily. He just follows the left guards pull block and there is plenty of space 2 yards off the LOS for him to do so because of the weak defensive front.
So save the roll eyes and hyperbolic statements of incredulity. Just telling it like it was in the last 4 minutes of the game.
That doesn't move the needle at all. I've mentioned before that I don't even trust my own eye ball test very much. I don't have time to watch each play several times to count blockers vs. defenders and to look for blocking, look for possible cut lanes, etc. I might watch every play once. So I let (pay) guys like Waldman do it for me.
Don't even recall having a conversation with you, so no I don't know why, nor do I really care.
Your breakdown missed my point. IIRC someone implied Jones had it easier when he played 2 games with Rodgers, to which you countered that no one will see lighter boxes than Jamaal did at the end of this one game. Yes, eyeroll was needed there. You are comparing 2 games worth of Rodgers to two running plays with unconventional defenses. That's hardly enough to make his job noticeably easier or make a dent in his YPC, especially when one of those two carries was from the 4 yard line. And no, I didn't call that one a prevent defense. I was referring to his next carry with like 30 seconds left in the game. That was a prevent defense. And again, we're talking about 2 carries vs. 2 games. I don't even know what the point is of mentioning that Williams would have faced a light box if Hundley would have audibled to the run. Who cares? The fact remains that when he DID run the ball, it was typically against a well defended front. Something he would not have seen if Rodgers was playing.
FWIW, I'm not trying to say Williams is a stud or that Jones is a JAG. I just think Williams would be a nice fit in an Aaron Rodgers offense which is probably why they drafted him ahead of Jones, had him taking some 1st team reps in camp, and had him higher on the depth chart than Jones.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
False.
I've quoted multiple articles from Packer insiders/experts/reporters in the GBP thread, Williams thread I believe, RB Lotto and maybe even in this thread that stated that Williams was ahead of Jones on the depth chart to start the season solely because he was drafted higher. (Jones, and even Mays, outplayed Williams in the preseason. I have on good authority that Williams was actually in danger of being cut in favor of Mays but they kept all 4 instead)
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TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Zeke scored 120. Fournette scored 106.6. Dalvin Cook scored 102.1. See 2017 here: https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/rb/JFS171 said:
A. Jones and Kamara both scored over 133. Breida scored 141.
Guys like McKinnon and Abdullah scored over 145.
I find it to be a mostly worthless metric for RBs because it doesn't even accurately measure overall athleticism (hello endurance, durability), let alone the entire skill set necessary to be an elite NFL RB. It's just a really nice made-up marketing gimmick for Nike that skews heavily towards smaller, scatback RBs.
Also all that said, I think Aaron Jones looks really good.
