grateful zed
Footballguy
asiata is on the viks, right?Dr. Octopus said:I see a few. Riddick as a 3rd down back and Zenner or Asiata at the goaline.
asiata is on the viks, right?Dr. Octopus said:I see a few. Riddick as a 3rd down back and Zenner or Asiata at the goaline.
No free agent, signed by the Lions a week ago or so.asiata is on the viks, right?
It does shape up as somewhat of a committee, but AA will at least be the chairman of that committee.Dr. Octopus said:I see a few. Riddick as a 3rd down back and Zenner or Asiata at the goaline.
Abdullah's career averages 1.6 catches per game. In order to achieve 50 catches he would have to double that statistic to 3.1 catches per game. I really don't see that happening unless Riddick gets hurt. Let's put this into perspective... Riddick had 53 catches last season. All other RBs 34. If Riddick wasn't there, sure this would be reasonable but I don't see how anyone can think Abdullah is going to get above 30 receptions this season.I think 200 carries and 50 receptions sounds reasonable for him
Well, I'm not sure there's any value in trying to review his "career averages" when he was splitting time in 2015 with Joique Bell and only played 1.5 games in 2016. It appears that the 3 way RBBC from 2015 is now down to a 2 way RBBC. In 2015, Abdullah had 25 rec in 16 games, Bell had 22 in 13 games, and Riddick had 80 rec in 16 games. So I don't see why Abdullah can't have 50 rec now that they're supposedly making him the featured back. Should they renege on that and have him splitting time with someone the way he did with Bell, then that will change things. But for now it appears he'll own 1st and 2nd down.Abdullah's career averages 1.6 catches per game. In order to achieve 50 catches he would have to double that statistic to 3.1 catches per game. I really don't see that happening unless Riddick gets hurt. Let's put this into perspective... Riddick had 53 catches last season. All other RBs 34. If Riddick wasn't there, sure this would be reasonable but I don't see how anyone can think Abdullah is going to get above 30 receptions this season.
8.9 carries per game for his career and needs 12.5 to get to 200 carries. His rookie year he had Reggie Bush and Joique Bell ahead of him and managed 140ish, so I think it's reasonable to assume he can get 200 carries being #1 on the depth chart.
His value lies in receptions, but I just don't see any way for him to get 50 receptions when Riddick eats them all up.
I'll say Abdullah is likelt to get 235 carries and rush for 1010 yards, possibly 5-7 TDs.... 30 receptions for 240 yards and 2 TDs
I think I'm being pretty generous... especially with the reception statistics.
Not sure where that puts him among RBs but that's a realistic expectation in my mind considering the other talents at RB and specific skill sets they possess.
You make good points. I am not really sure I see Detroit completing 127 passes to running backs this year... very different dynamic; in 2015 they had one of the best WRs in the game stretching the field. That threat was gone last year. But who knows. Certainly it's possible given the statistics you've shown. I think assuming Abdullah doubles his receptions/game isn't really based on anything except a hunch. I supposed we just don't know what how he will be used because he was hurt all last year, so maybe he is used more in the passing role and a hunch is the best we got!In 2015, Abdullah had 25 rec in 16 games, Bell had 22 in 13 games, and Riddick had 80 rec in 16 games. So I don't see why Abdullah can't have 50 rec now that they're supposedly making him the featured back. Should they renege on that and have him splitting time with someone the way he did with Bell, then that will change things. But for now it appears he'll own 1st and 2nd down.
I agree 235 carries is generous, but 4.3 ypc is not. They've upgraded the OL and the offense as a whole appears to be better under JBC than it was back in 2015 when Abdullah averaged 4.3 ypc as a rookie.
Well, something that keeps getting overlooked is that Marvin's steep drop off last year coincided with some injuries. It's very possible that he gets back on track and provides the field stretching needed.You make good points. I am not really sure I see Detroit completing 127 passes to running backs this year... very different dynamic; in 2015 they had one of the best WRs in the game stretching the field. That threat was gone last year. But who knows. Certainly it's possible given the statistics you've shown. I think assuming Abdullah doubles his receptions/game isn't really based on anything except a hunch. I supposed we just don't know what how he will be used because he was hurt all last year, so maybe he is used more in the passing role and a hunch is the best we got!
In regard to the 4.3 YPC... I was trying to be conservative on that based on his history. I could say he could average 5.5 yards per carry but I have no basis for that prediction 4.3 is likely his floor.
Zeke rushed for 5.1 YPC... are we thinking he is that good this year? If so then I'd say his ceiling is 1200 yards at the 235 carries.
Maybe 4.8 is more realistic, 1128 vs 1010 yards... kind of splitting hairs (we are talking about 7.3 yards per game difference)
Why?But for now it appears he'll own 1st and 2nd down.
Because he's exponentially better than Riddick as a runner and because the coaches this year are calling him the featured back. Despite playing in situations that lend themselves to a higher ypc, Riddick has a career 3.5 ypc. In 2015, Abdullah averaged over a 1.0 ypc more than Riddick behind the same line.Why?
I agree he'll lead the team in carries on 1st and 2nd down, but own? He hasn't so far. I think people are mistakenly thinking that Riddick was just a passing down back. In their short spell playing together last year Riddick got ALL the carries, including 1st and 2nd down, on every 3rd drive. Abdullah would play two drives as the lead back, then Riddick would play one. Meanwhile Riddick also handled garbage time and Washington handled the goaline carries.
In the only game that Abdullah and Riddick played together last year (Abdullah got hurt very late in the game) the 1st and 2nd down carries broke down as follows.
Abdullah - 12
Riddick - 7
Washington - 2 (both at the goaline)
It's a small sample size, but it was pretty clear how they were using them in that stretch. That's certainly no guarantee it will work the same way in the future, but given that Abdullah left both games he played last year early with injuries, why are we thinking that they are looking to increase his workload, much less as some sort of guarantee? Is there some coach interview I'm missing here or are people just not realizing that Riddick was getting early down work too even when Abdullah was healthy last year?
To be fair he did get more 3rd down work than people are thinking he did as well. Riddick wasn't really a 3rd down back. On Abdullah's drives he stayed out there on 3rd downs. It was more passing drives (garbage time or 2 min drill) where Abdullah gave way to Riddick in the passing game.
If Detroit takes a similar approach this year to what they were doing when they had everyone healthy last year it seems like Abdullah is likely to be the lead back on 2 of every 3 drives, while ceding garbage time and 2-minute drill work to Riddick and ceding short yardage work to one of the bigger backs.
But didn't the Lions already know all this heading into last year when they spelled Abdullah every 3rd drive? The only thing that's changed since then is that Riddick had his best year of his career as a runner, and that Abdullah got hurt twice. So the logic here is that when Riddick was a 3.1ypc guy and Abdullah had been healthy they decided to give Riddick every 3rd drive, but now that Riddick is a 3.9ypc guy and Abdullah got hurt in both of his starts they're going to....give Abdullah all the work?Because he's exponentially better than Riddick as a runner and because the coaches this year are calling him the featured back. Despite playing in situations that lend themselves to a higher ypc, Riddick has a career 3.5 ypc. In 2015, Abdullah averaged over a 1.0 ypc more than Riddick behind the same line.
I get that we're on a FF board, but if anyone can take a step back from their PPR stats they'll realize Riddick is a niche player and not a very good all round RB. His ability as a player is ignored due to the aggregate PPR numbers people are looking at. Abdullah on the other hand was a very, very good college player (80th percentile college dominator rating, 72nd percentile college ypc, 65th percentile college target share) who gets dinged for size (yet heavier and more compact than Charles) and is now labeled injury prone due to one injury (I don't think he missed any games in college, but I could be wrong, and he played a full 16 games in his first NFL season). And on top of that, his SPARQ score was off the charts.
As an auction guy, I really love guys in Abdullah's current range so every year I look for a few guys around that AAV/ADP with a chance to break out and I try to grab them all, hoping a couple work out and I can play them situationally. So I'm not saying Abdullah is a lock, but I think when his team passed on RB in the draft and free agency his value should have sky rocketed, but it didn't so he's now a prime target. I think he's got the talent to thrive as a featured back and I think that opportunity is coming this year. But that's just me. It seems like everyone else is writing him off due to silly one line narratives. He can't be productive while Riddick is there. He's injury prone. He's too small.
It appears you are correct about Abdullah leaving the Indy game early. At the time of his last recorded play, he had 12 carries to Riddick's 5. In the TEN game, Riddick had no stats at all prior to Abdullah's departure (6 carries to 0). So I'm not sure how many conclusions we can draw from that, but if Abdullah is once again averaging over a yard per carry more than Riddick, how long do you think the staff is going to keep giving Riddick carries? Or maybe they've already realized Riddick's limitations and that's why they're calling Abdullah the featured back. I dunno. But I think Abdullah's opportunity cost is very favorable this year.
and since they said that they flirted with signing Blount and signed Matt Asiata.Between Ameer (Abdullah), Theo (Riddick), Zach (Zenner), Dwayne (Washington) and Mike James, and whoever else we might bring in here in the future, I think we’re going to have plenty of running backs to carry the load.”
FWIW, I'm doing the same thing, but on this topic I feel pretty good about Abdullah so I'm just sharing my logic in his thread. He's one of several guys that I deem to be a steal. Again, the knocks against him are pretty weak. Either Riddick, a vastly inferior talent, is going to steal all his value, or he's injury prone after basically one serious injury in the past 6 years. No one mentions that Riddick, despite only 164 career carries, has missed time in 3 out of 4 seasons.But didn't the Lions already know all this heading into last year when they spelled Abdullah every 3rd drive? The only thing that's changed since then is that Riddick had his best year of his career as a runner, and that Abdullah got hurt twice. So the logic here is that when Riddick was a 3.1ypc guy and Abdullah had been healthy they decided to give Riddick every 3rd drive, but now that Riddick is a 3.9ypc guy and Abdullah got hurt in both of his starts they're going to....give Abdullah all the work?
I agree that Abdullah is a better runner than Riddick, and I have no misillusions of what Riddick is based off his PPR scoring. I own 0 shares of these guys and have never owned any of them. I don't have a "favorite" here or a strong opinion one way or the other, I'm just trying to figure things out before redrafts get going and I think there are some fallacies being mentioned in here where people are less interested in figuring it out and more interested in hyping up "their guy". The notion that the Lions only see Riddick as a passing down back is one of those fallacies because that's not necessarily how they've used him. This stuff about Lions coaches hyping up Abdullah as the "featured back" is another made up story that people are knee deep in. It's fake news.
Here is everything the Lions coaches have said about Abdullah's role this offseason.
Reporter: Is Abdullah the starter this year?
Quinn: He is.
He also went on to say the following.
Between Ameer (Abdullah), Theo (Riddick), Zach (Zenner), Dwayne (Washington) and Mike James, and whoever else we might bring in here in the future, I think we’re going to have plenty of running backs to carry the load.”
Nothing about a featured role (he was the "starter" last year too), and if anything he also mentions them using multiple backs. The only other thing he mentioned is that they considered drafting another back in the middle rounds of the draft this year. And of course there were rumors floating around about them being interested in Mixon.
Any talk of "featured back" stuff is referencing an article by a beat writer (Tim Twentymen) who SPECULATED the following:
The Lions seem to expect the third-year back to play a featured role in their offense in 2017. General manager Bob Quinn didn’t sign or draft a running back this offseason and Quinn called Abdullah the starter in an interview.
Just complete speculation based on the same info that we have. It's not even "according to sources" or anything. Just "eh they didn't draft a RB, so maybe they're going to feature Abdullah!". Nothing of substance there. And if you look any article talking about Abdullah's "featured" role references that quote as their source.
Not that it matters since it wasn't a useful tidbit anyway but Twentyman, by the way, back tracked this week and said Abdullah and Riddick could form a one-two punch this year.
Could Abdullah end up being the featured back? Sure. I like the guy as a player and I'd like to see it. But it's all speculation and all signs from the actual people making that decision have so far pointed otherwise. I agree at his ADP he is good value on the upshot that he does take over the role, but let's not just ignore that things have only gotten worse for him since the coaches last made the decision to not give him that role, nor have they done anything to imply that he will have it going forward.
Decker hurt. Only a matter of time before Lang gets hurt. Then it's the same old OLFWIW, I'm doing the same thing, but on this topic I feel pretty good about Abdullah so I'm just sharing my logic in his thread. He's one of several guys that I deem to be a steal. Again, the knocks against him are pretty weak. Either Riddick, a vastly inferior talent, is going to steal all his value, or he's injury prone after basically one serious injury in the past 6 years. No one mentions that Riddick, despite only 164 career carries, has missed time in 3 out of 4 seasons.
The Lions are in the business of winning games (no matter what history says). The cream will rise to the top. With an improved OL, healthy WRs/TEs, and a good running back, I think Detroit could be a top 10 NFL offense. I like owning the most talented RB in good offenses.
I'm not trying to hype "my guy" here. I think I drafted him in some of those mock draft forum leagues (WSL, PDSL, SSL), but I don't really consider that enough of an investment to blind me on him. I'm not one of those guys that has a draft and instantly starts threads about the guys I drafted looking for some confirmation bias.
How?? That's so Detroit.Decker hurt. Only a matter of time before Lang gets hurt. Then it's the same old OL
I know. Has to be frustrating for Detroit fans... I can't imagine. Things were looking so up. Decker had surgery on his shoulder and is out for an undetermined amount of time. No idea what happened but Caldwell mentioned it was a non-contact injury. So I wonder if he fell onto his arm. Something that would keep him out "not all of 2017 season" would likely be something rather serious: Labral/Rotator/Bicep tear. A simple scope "clean out" would basically have him out only a couple of months tops.How?? That's so Detroit.
Wouldn't that be contact (with the ground)?Caldwell mentioned it was a non-contact injury. So I wonder if he fell onto his arm.
Technically no. But maybe. Depends on who you talk to I guess.Wouldn't that be contact (with the ground)?
Lions.com reporter Tim Twentyman said the Lions are a "different offense" with Ameer Abdullah.
Twentyman was blown away by Abdullah's OTAs performance and was particularly struck by Abdullah's burst. He also complimented Abdullah's versatility, calling him the best" two-way back" on Detroit's roster. Abdullah's first two seasons didn't go as planned but the former second-round pick could be in for a breakout year now that he's finally healthy.
Source: detroitlions.com
Jun 11 - 10:02 AM
Of course he is the best two-way back on Detroit's roster. That doesn't mean he is going to get bellcow touches.
wtf are you talking about?Abdullah has never been able to stay healthy dating back to pre-NFL years.
Yeah, that was just a straight up lie.
Abdullah hasn't had a real opportunity to show he's a 3 down RB in the NFL. Your post has so much misinformation you might as well delete it. I know you like to be the know-it-all but this is just bad posting.![]()
Detroit is a good example of how game flow really dictates how they use their RBs. They have lots of mediocre talent. I hold the opinion that Detroit is a "great" RB away from being a perennial playoff contender. Yes, most teams are as well, but Detroit has fewer holes than a lot of teams; they're the kind of team that with a few good FA pickups and draft hits can go from 8-8 to 12-4 and be in the conference championship.
That being said, Abdullah hasn't shown to be a 3 down back. They have talent for passing downs that has been proven in the past to work well. I'm not real sure they want a bell cow. Or even need one. Abdullah has never been able to stay healthy dating back to pre-NFL years.
That all said, the upside is there and since he can likely be had for cheap as a RB3 I think the reward is well worth the risk
That's not my intention at all. It'd be great for you to read my posts with an open mind and without assuming my personality or intention. This is one of the biggest misconceptions of me on this board. I may type intelligently, I can't help it, but it is not my intention to come across this way. I understand he hasn't had an opportunity to show he can be a 3 down back, but he hasn't shown that he has the ability to stay healthy to be a 3 down back either!Rhythmdoctor said:Abdullah hasn't had a real opportunity to show he's a 3 down RB in the NFL. Your post has so much misinformation you might as well delete it. I know you like to be the know-it-all but this is just bad posting.
I was referring to a knee injury in 2014 I think. I am not sure if he missed any time but I remember him having a sprain of some sort.
C'mon... We both know you just googled it and that was all you could find.I was referring to a knee injury in 2014 I think. I am not sure if he missed any time but I remember him having a sprain of some sort.
Interesting theory. I remembered the year he was drafted there was a mention of an injury the year before. That's all. You're right, there isn't justification to say the he couldn't stay healthy in college. I thought I had already conceded to that, but if we need a pissing contest or some declaration of incorrectness, you win. I have no problem admitting when I'm wrong and this is one of those times that I'm wrong.C'mon... We both know you just googled it and that was all you could find.![]()
We also both know that what you found when you googled was that he did not miss any time with that minor sprain (played the very next game).
So the guy missed zero games in four years of college, zero games in his first NFL season, and had one missed time injury in 2016 and that somehow warrants the statement "Abdullah has never been able to stay healthy dating back to pre-NFL years."??
(hint: the answer is no)
Not a pissing contest at all. Just looking for clarification. You just now said "there isn't justification to say the he couldn't stay healthy in college. I thought I had already conceded to that" but all you actually said was "I was referring to a knee injury in 2014 I think. I am not sure if he missed any time but I remember him having a sprain of some sort." Sorry, but I didn't read that as a concession.Interesting theory. I remembered the year he was drafted there was a mention of an injury the year before. That's all. You're right, there isn't justification to say the he couldn't stay healthy in college. I thought I had already conceded to that, but if we need a pissing contest or some declaration of incorrectness, you win. I have no problem admitting when I'm wrong and this is one of those times that I'm wrong.
I was also going off of a post from someone else I read in this thread earlier that is now deleted of someone making a comment on his injury history. Probably deleted for obvious reasons. I can admit that I was incorrect in saying that. If you need me to post again admitting this mistake, just let me know![]()
I don't need to look important in an online message board. I enjoy these kinds of conversations because I am seriously eyeing up drafting him and I have reservations so it's great to hear from people who aren't concerned at all about him; gets me a little more excited about jumping back on this train.
Appreciate that. As I mentioned earlier I am definitely intrigued by him and I have some reservations. It's great to put some of those to rest with what others have to say. Many in here have given some awesome stats and information.Not a pissing contest at all. Just looking for clarification. You just now said "there isn't justification to say the he couldn't stay healthy in college. I thought I had already conceded to that" but all you actually said was "I was referring to a knee injury in 2014 I think. I am not sure if he missed any time but I remember him having a sprain of some sort." Sorry, but I didn't read that as a concession.
As you can tell, I've taken up the role of resident Abdullah defender in this thread, so I've been calling out everyone who keeps citing injury history or calling him injury prone, so please don't take it personally. I don't discriminate in who I call out. I'm just fighting the good fight against misinformation. Not sure why... I am hoping to get him cheap in my redrafts. I should let this misinformation propagate so I can get him even cheaper.
Ha, I didn't even realize you were a packer fan. Who you betting to win that backfield?Appreciate that. As I mentioned earlier I am definitely intrigued by him and I have some reservations. It's great to put some of those to rest with what others have to say. Many in here have given some awesome stats and information.
Contrary to what some may believe, no I am not a trolling Packer fan who goes into divisional opponent threads to just cause problems. If anyone has read many of my posts in the past they know that football really doesn't mean much to me; I'd quit fantasy if I stopped winning. I'm here to give and receive information. I was spouting off some stuff in the Mariota thread a while ago and reading what people had to say it really changed my mind about him as well.
Big fan of Aaron Jones. I like what I see with Williams but Jones seems like a more complete back. I'd probably stay away from any this year unless PPR then I'd grab Ty. Jones has some crazy talent.Ha, I didn't even realize you were a packer fan. Who you betting to win that backfield?
I don't follow any posters in particular and only maintain high or low opinions of a few specific people, so I didn't think you were trolling anyone or trying to cause problems. Just another person who was mistaken on Abdullah's injury history.
I was concerned as a packer fan that Detroit finally found a great RB. He was a steal TBH. I still think he is.Really thought Abdulla would be a PPR machine his first year in the league and many seasons beyond. Seemed like a great landing spot in DET.
Happy to provide some comic reliefJust Win Baby said:
So now you're of the belief that you make others on the board feel inferior because of how intelligently (you believe) you express your opinions? Good Lord. You should have stopped with your initial ridiculous statement.It's very possible that I do know a lot about a particular topic, so if it comes across as know-it-all-ish then I can't really help how people feel when they read what I say; no one can make you feel anything, if you feel inferior that's your issue not mine.
No, just saying that if what I write comes off know-it-all-ish and makes people feel inferior that's not really my problem. If I'm educated in a topic would you prefer I dumb it down or share that knoweledge with all?So now you're of the belief that you make others on the board feel inferior because of how intelligently (you believe) you express your opinions? Good Lord. You should have stopped with your initial ridiculous statement.
Hey man, the more opinions on this board the better IMO. I appreciate your take on things. But the fact that you believe you make others feel inferior based upon how intelligently you (believe you) write is pure idiocy. That's all. That you feel that way is one thing, to verbalize it is another. For your own good, just stop. Though you seem to not care you're definitely coming across horribly, and I can guarantee that what people are feeling isn't anything close to inferiority.No, just saying that if what I write comes off know-it-all-ish and makes people feel inferior that's not really my problem.
Now we can move on and get back to a specific player.
I've heard they plan on getting them both on the field as much as possible, Theo as the slot WR & AA as the main RB. Idea is to create matchup problems for defenses to cover both.I was concerned as a packer fan that Detroit finally found a great RB. He was a steal TBH. I still think he is.
I was encouraged that his first game last year he had 5 receptions... Riddick still concerns me because he has proven he can be big in the passing game, but Abdullah has the talent to be a receiving back... not sure how that shakes out, but it'll be fun to watch.
Curious to know how using a rb as a slot wr is creating match up problems? Wouldn't a slot wr be better as a slot wr? It's not like if they keep AA and Riddick in the backfield teams are going 9 in the box. They will go nickel.I've heard they plan on getting them both on the field as much as possible, Theo as the slot WR & AA as the main RB. Idea is to create matchup problems for defenses to cover both.
And it's officially June. I heard about the first team that will have 2 rbs on the field at the same time. I've never seen it happen yet but I hear it every year at this time.I've heard they plan on getting them both on the field as much as possible, Theo as the slot WR & AA as the main RB. Idea is to create matchup problems for defenses to cover both.
ha! was going to type the same exact thing.And it's officially June. I heard about the first team that will have 2 rbs on the field at the same time. I've never seen it happen yet but I hear it every year at this time.
The obvious example for me is Warrick Dunn and Mike Alstott. The fact that I have to go back that far to think of an example is pretty much evidence that it doesn't happen enough to matter.ha! was going to type the same exact thing.
There's always 1 or 2 teams who say that they have 2 RBs that are so good that they want to get them on the field at the same time to create mismatches. When has that ever turned out to actually be true?
(waiting for the awesome hive mind databank that is the Shark Pool to reply with a few real life examples cuz I'm sure there's 1 or 2. I just bet it's super rare).
So true. And I don't expect it to happen in Detroit, but since Theo is basically just a small WR and Detroit didn't re-sign their slot WR from last year, I think it is more possible than situations like getting DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry on the field at the same time (the most recent example I can think of that was hyped, but didn't happen).And it's officially June. I heard about the first team that will have 2 rbs on the field at the same time. I've never seen it happen yet but I hear it every year at this time.
To my knowledge, never.ha! was going to type the same exact thing.
There's always 1 or 2 teams who say that they have 2 RBs that are so good that they want to get them on the field at the same time to create mismatches. When has that ever turned out to actually be true?
(waiting for the awesome hive mind databank that is the Shark Pool to reply with a few real life examples cuz I'm sure there's 1 or 2. I just bet it's super rare).
Alstott was a fullback.The obvious example for me is Warrick Dunn and Mike Alstott. The fact that I have to go back that far to think of an example is pretty much evidence that it doesn't happen enough to matter.
I recall someone asking Bill Cowher about playing his RB1 and RB2 at the same time, and he basically looked like the questioner was a moron and asked why in the world he should replace his fullback with a lesser lead blocker...
Wasn't Sproles used often in the slot?FF Ninja said:To my knowledge, never.
In New Orleans? Yes, but he would start out in the backfield and go in motion (if my memory is correct). To my knowledge, he was rarely used as a slot WR while another RB was on the field. The question wasn't if a running back ever manned the slot, it was if teams ever genuinely deployed two RBs in the same formation with any regularity.Wasn't Sproles used often in the slot?