RB Austin Ekeler, WAS (3 Viewers)

[jm192]

he's been doubted his whole life and now (understandably) it's the fantasy community's turn....coming off a down year....a decent deal, but somewhat of a "prove it" deal on a new team with another capable back (like Gordon back in the day?)....he has generally responded to the doubters and "prove it" type situations in the past....all the way back to coming out of high school when every college team (except one) wanted him to switch to defense....obviously an injury to either him or Robinson probably vaults the other into instant start status....but I feel Eck can still be a flex/RB3 type in PRR as the floor, with possibility (depending on how the offense looks/shakes out between now and the start of season) a mid to lower end RB2...if you have two solid/decent RB's rostered and one gets hurt and you got to start two, you could probably do worse then Eck....think he could be decent value at ADP...

But how much do you envision Daniels checking it down?

I keep reading the PPR/pass catching points. I see a rookie QB that excels at running, and don't envious a lot of dump offs. While Ekeler excels as a pass catcher, are the opportunities going to be enough to give him 50+ catches?

I think trying to predict Daniels propensity to check down vs "taking off" at the NFL level and in this offense (at this point) might kinda be a waste of time and not something to base your drafting or not of Eck on...I think many are "assuming" he will take off instead of checking down, and then the others are assuming he will check down a lot cause he is a rookie, etc....maybe a better way to look at is how much will there be "designed" check downs so to speak....Eck and Rob can both catch so I feel it would be safe to assume whether Daniels takes off or not....designed passes to the RB will be part of the game plan....it probably would be stupid not to make it part of the plan if you bring in a guy like Eck where that is the strength of his game.....and the WR/TE room there isn't really one of the best in the league at this point....

It's based on logic/past performance of the archetype. Running QB's tend to run when immobile QB's dump it off. Sometimes they'll still dump it off...but the running ability replaces many of those RB pass opportunities.

Josh Allen's top receiving back didn't hit 40 receptions his rookie year
Kyler Murray's top receiving back didn't hit 40 receptions his 1st year.
Lamar's top running back his 2nd year (1st full time year as starter) had 26 receptions.
Hurts 1st year as the full time starter, Gainwell topped the list at 33 receptions.

Running quarterbacks replace a fair amount of dump off opportunities with scrambles. It's just fact.
Could Daniels be the outlier that doesn't do that? Maybe.

But projecting Ekeler to get 50 receptions from a running QB feels like a lofty bar. Maybe I'll be wrong. I'll certainly let you have him in drafts.

just conversation, but your first guy....Josh Allen.... averaged just over 3 yards a carry in college (716 on 235 attempts last two years) ....he wasn't exactly a "running QB" coming out of college....especially compared to Daniels who in his senior season alone averaged over 8 yards a carry (1134 on 135) ....so narratives sometimes change....to be fair, I didn't look at the others....

lol....fwiw...Clay has Eck right at exactly 50 receptions on 68 targets...so 50 may be about right once other projections come out closer to the season...

1. Allen ran for 631 yards his rookie year in the NFL. I would argue that someone that has over 100 rushes/season in college is a running QB regardless of their yards per carry.

2. I said way up thread that I've seen several places projecting 50 receptions. I just don't follow the thinking. 70 targets from a rushing QB seems like a lofty projection unless you think he's throwing it 600 times on the year. And I don't see that. That was the point of the conversation. That there seems to be a disconnect in the projections and the situation. Maybe I'll be the one in the wrong. It just seems completely opposite of logic. Any other time we have a mobile QB, we talk about how their RB's probably wont' see a ton of passing work.

FBG has him at RB28. It's probably not worth a ton of energy going back and forth about the 28th RB.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

he's been doubted his whole life and now (understandably) it's the fantasy community's turn....coming off a down year....a decent deal, but somewhat of a "prove it" deal on a new team with another capable back (like Gordon back in the day?)....he has generally responded to the doubters and "prove it" type situations in the past....all the way back to coming out of high school when every college team (except one) wanted him to switch to defense....obviously an injury to either him or Robinson probably vaults the other into instant start status....but I feel Eck can still be a flex/RB3 type in PRR as the floor, with possibility (depending on how the offense looks/shakes out between now and the start of season) a mid to lower end RB2...if you have two solid/decent RB's rostered and one gets hurt and you got to start two, you could probably do worse then Eck....think he could be decent value at ADP...

But how much do you envision Daniels checking it down?

I keep reading the PPR/pass catching points. I see a rookie QB that excels at running, and don't envious a lot of dump offs. While Ekeler excels as a pass catcher, are the opportunities going to be enough to give him 50+ catches?

I think trying to predict Daniels propensity to check down vs "taking off" at the NFL level and in this offense (at this point) might kinda be a waste of time and not something to base your drafting or not of Eck on...I think many are "assuming" he will take off instead of checking down, and then the others are assuming he will check down a lot cause he is a rookie, etc....maybe a better way to look at is how much will there be "designed" check downs so to speak....Eck and Rob can both catch so I feel it would be safe to assume whether Daniels takes off or not....designed passes to the RB will be part of the game plan....it probably would be stupid not to make it part of the plan if you bring in a guy like Eck where that is the strength of his game.....and the WR/TE room there isn't really one of the best in the league at this point....

It's based on logic/past performance of the archetype. Running QB's tend to run when immobile QB's dump it off. Sometimes they'll still dump it off...but the running ability replaces many of those RB pass opportunities.

Josh Allen's top receiving back didn't hit 40 receptions his rookie year
Kyler Murray's top receiving back didn't hit 40 receptions his 1st year.
Lamar's top running back his 2nd year (1st full time year as starter) had 26 receptions.
Hurts 1st year as the full time starter, Gainwell topped the list at 33 receptions.

Running quarterbacks replace a fair amount of dump off opportunities with scrambles. It's just fact.
Could Daniels be the outlier that doesn't do that? Maybe.

But projecting Ekeler to get 50 receptions from a running QB feels like a lofty bar. Maybe I'll be wrong. I'll certainly let you have him in drafts.

just conversation, but your first guy....Josh Allen.... averaged just over 3 yards a carry in college (716 on 235 attempts last two years) ....he wasn't exactly a "running QB" coming out of college....especially compared to Daniels who in his senior season alone averaged over 8 yards a carry (1134 on 135) ....so narratives sometimes change....to be fair, I didn't look at the others....

lol....fwiw...Clay has Eck right at exactly 50 receptions on 68 targets...so 50 may be about right once other projections come out closer to the season...

1. Allen ran for 631 yards his rookie year in the NFL. I would argue that someone that has over 100 rushes/season in college is a running QB regardless of their yards per carry.

2. I said way up thread that I've seen several places projecting 50 receptions. I just don't follow the thinking. 70 targets from a rushing QB seems like a lofty projection unless you think he's throwing it 600 times on the year. And I don't see that. That was the point of the conversation. That there seems to be a disconnect in the projections and the situation. Maybe I'll be the one in the wrong. It just seems completely opposite of logic. Any other time we have a mobile QB, we talk about how their RB's probably wont' see a ton of passing work.

FBG has him at RB28. It's probably not worth a ton of energy going back and forth about the 28th RB.

fair enough....Allen rushed I think 92 times for 204 yards...a 2.2 YPC average his senior year....I don't think anybody really saw 631 yards coming his rookie year in NFL...?....did you..?...that's almost as much as he had his entire college career...I think yards per carry actually do matter if assessing whether a guy is a "running QB" or not.....to me he most certainly "wasn't" in college but then once he got to the NFL he has become one...I guess we can disagree....

but back to Eck...I mean yeah he may be in the low 20's in most rankings right now, but talking about this **** is why this site even exists....dude went from an undrafted player to a top 5 fantasy pick pretty quickly....he may end up being the starter/getting the most work once the season hits.....they went and got him....and becomes an instant start/possible league winner/changer if Rob gets hurt....heck he is already being ranked by FBG over at least 4 "starters" at 28....in a 12 team league he is a top 4 RB3....with injuries etc. at RB, those guys matter...and many times worth the "energy" when it comes to winning or losing your leagues...

 

[Alex P Keaton]

he's been doubted his whole life and now (understandably) it's the fantasy community's turn....coming off a down year....a decent deal, but somewhat of a "prove it" deal on a new team with another capable back (like Gordon back in the day?)....he has generally responded to the doubters and "prove it" type situations in the past....all the way back to coming out of high school when every college team (except one) wanted him to switch to defense....obviously an injury to either him or Robinson probably vaults the other into instant start status....but I feel Eck can still be a flex/RB3 type in PRR as the floor, with possibility (depending on how the offense looks/shakes out between now and the start of season) a mid to lower end RB2...if you have two solid/decent RB's rostered and one gets hurt and you got to start two, you could probably do worse then Eck....think he could be decent value at ADP...

But how much do you envision Daniels checking it down?

I keep reading the PPR/pass catching points. I see a rookie QB that excels at running, and don't envious a lot of dump offs. While Ekeler excels as a pass catcher, are the opportunities going to be enough to give him 50+ catches?

I think trying to predict Daniels propensity to check down vs "taking off" at the NFL level and in this offense (at this point) might kinda be a waste of time and not something to base your drafting or not of Eck on...I think many are "assuming" he will take off instead of checking down, and then the others are assuming he will check down a lot cause he is a rookie, etc....maybe a better way to look at is how much will there be "designed" check downs so to speak....Eck and Rob can both catch so I feel it would be safe to assume whether Daniels takes off or not....designed passes to the RB will be part of the game plan....it probably would be stupid not to make it part of the plan if you bring in a guy like Eck where that is the strength of his game.....and the WR/TE room there isn't really one of the best in the league at this point....

It's based on logic/past performance of the archetype. Running QB's tend to run when immobile QB's dump it off. Sometimes they'll still dump it off...but the running ability replaces many of those RB pass opportunities.

Josh Allen's top receiving back didn't hit 40 receptions his rookie year
Kyler Murray's top receiving back didn't hit 40 receptions his 1st year.
Lamar's top running back his 2nd year (1st full time year as starter) had 26 receptions.
Hurts 1st year as the full time starter, Gainwell topped the list at 33 receptions.

Running quarterbacks replace a fair amount of dump off opportunities with scrambles. It's just fact.
Could Daniels be the outlier that doesn't do that? Maybe.

But projecting Ekeler to get 50 receptions from a running QB feels like a lofty bar. Maybe I'll be wrong. I'll certainly let you have him in drafts.

just conversation, but your first guy....Josh Allen.... averaged just over 3 yards a carry in college (716 on 235 attempts last two years) ....he wasn't exactly a "running QB" coming out of college....especially compared to Daniels who in his senior season alone averaged over 8 yards a carry (1134 on 135) ....so narratives sometimes change....to be fair, I didn't look at the others....

lol....fwiw...Clay has Eck right at exactly 50 receptions on 68 targets...so 50 may be about right once other projections come out closer to the season...

1. Allen ran for 631 yards his rookie year in the NFL. I would argue that someone that has over 100 rushes/season in college is a running QB regardless of their yards per carry.

2. I said way up thread that I've seen several places projecting 50 receptions. I just don't follow the thinking. 70 targets from a rushing QB seems like a lofty projection unless you think he's throwing it 600 times on the year. And I don't see that. That was the point of the conversation. That there seems to be a disconnect in the projections and the situation. Maybe I'll be the one in the wrong. It just seems completely opposite of logic. Any other time we have a mobile QB, we talk about how their RB's probably wont' see a ton of passing work.

FBG has him at RB28. It's probably not worth a ton of energy going back and forth about the 28th RB.

fair enough....Allen rushed I think 92 times for 204 yards...a 2.2 YPC average his senior year....I don't think anybody really saw 631 yards coming his rookie year in NFL...?....did you..?...that's almost as much as he had his entire college career...I think yards per carry actually do matter if assessing whether a guy is a "running QB" or not.....to me he most certainly "wasn't" in college but then once he got to the NFL he has become one...I guess we can disagree....

but back to Eck...I mean yeah he may be in the low 20's in most rankings right now, but talking about this **** is why this site even exists....dude went from an undrafted player to a top 5 fantasy pick pretty quickly....he may end up being the starter/getting the most work once the season hits.....they went and got him....and becomes an instant start/possible league winner/changer if Rob gets hurt....heck he is already being ranked by FBG over at least 4 "starters" at 28....in a 12 team league he is a top 4 RB3....with injuries etc. at RB, those guys matter...and many times worth the "energy" when it comes to winning or losing your leagues...

Don’t college QBs have yards-lost-on-sacks count against their rushing yardage and stats?

 

[Jail]

The 2019 AZ numbers are probably our best predictor since it's the same OC with a running rookie QB in Murray.

I am not the best at this, so if someone can crunch the numbers better please do. By my count I see 103 targets and 76 receptions to 3 different RBs. So, if Eck can be the primary pass catcher 50 rec seems reasonable.

 

[Ray_T]

he's been doubted his whole life and now (understandably) it's the fantasy community's turn....coming off a down year....a decent deal, but somewhat of a "prove it" deal on a new team with another capable back (like Gordon back in the day?)....he has generally responded to the doubters and "prove it" type situations in the past....all the way back to coming out of high school when every college team (except one) wanted him to switch to defense....obviously an injury to either him or Robinson probably vaults the other into instant start status....but I feel Eck can still be a flex/RB3 type in PRR as the floor, with possibility (depending on how the offense looks/shakes out between now and the start of season) a mid to lower end RB2...if you have two solid/decent RB's rostered and one gets hurt and you got to start two, you could probably do worse then Eck....think he could be decent value at ADP...

But how much do you envision Daniels checking it down?

I keep reading the PPR/pass catching points. I see a rookie QB that excels at running, and don't envious a lot of dump offs. While Ekeler excels as a pass catcher, are the opportunities going to be enough to give him 50+ catches?

I think trying to predict Daniels propensity to check down vs "taking off" at the NFL level and in this offense (at this point) might kinda be a waste of time and not something to base your drafting or not of Eck on...I think many are "assuming" he will take off instead of checking down, and then the others are assuming he will check down a lot cause he is a rookie, etc....maybe a better way to look at is how much will there be "designed" check downs so to speak....Eck and Rob can both catch so I feel it would be safe to assume whether Daniels takes off or not....designed passes to the RB will be part of the game plan....it probably would be stupid not to make it part of the plan if you bring in a guy like Eck where that is the strength of his game.....and the WR/TE room there isn't really one of the best in the league at this point....

It's based on logic/past performance of the archetype. Running QB's tend to run when immobile QB's dump it off. Sometimes they'll still dump it off...but the running ability replaces many of those RB pass opportunities.

Josh Allen's top receiving back didn't hit 40 receptions his rookie year
Kyler Murray's top receiving back didn't hit 40 receptions his 1st year.
Lamar's top running back his 2nd year (1st full time year as starter) had 26 receptions.
Hurts 1st year as the full time starter, Gainwell topped the list at 33 receptions.

Running quarterbacks replace a fair amount of dump off opportunities with scrambles. It's just fact.
Could Daniels be the outlier that doesn't do that? Maybe.

But projecting Ekeler to get 50 receptions from a running QB feels like a lofty bar. Maybe I'll be wrong. I'll certainly let you have him in drafts.

just conversation, but your first guy....Josh Allen.... averaged just over 3 yards a carry in college (716 on 235 attempts last two years) ....he wasn't exactly a "running QB" coming out of college....especially compared to Daniels who in his senior season alone averaged over 8 yards a carry (1134 on 135) ....so narratives sometimes change....to be fair, I didn't look at the others....

lol....fwiw...Clay has Eck right at exactly 50 receptions on 68 targets...so 50 may be about right once other projections come out closer to the season...

1. Allen ran for 631 yards his rookie year in the NFL. I would argue that someone that has over 100 rushes/season in college is a running QB regardless of their yards per carry.

2. I said way up thread that I've seen several places projecting 50 receptions. I just don't follow the thinking. 70 targets from a rushing QB seems like a lofty projection unless you think he's throwing it 600 times on the year. And I don't see that. That was the point of the conversation. That there seems to be a disconnect in the projections and the situation. Maybe I'll be the one in the wrong. It just seems completely opposite of logic. Any other time we have a mobile QB, we talk about how their RB's probably wont' see a ton of passing work.

FBG has him at RB28. It's probably not worth a ton of energy going back and forth about the 28th RB.

fair enough....Allen rushed I think 92 times for 204 yards...a 2.2 YPC average his senior year....I don't think anybody really saw 631 yards coming his rookie year in NFL...?....did you..?...that's almost as much as he had his entire college career...I think yards per carry actually do matter if assessing whether a guy is a "running QB" or not.....to me he most certainly "wasn't" in college but then once he got to the NFL he has become one...I guess we can disagree....

but back to Eck...I mean yeah he may be in the low 20's in most rankings right now, but talking about this **** is why this site even exists....dude went from an undrafted player to a top 5 fantasy pick pretty quickly....he may end up being the starter/getting the most work once the season hits.....they went and got him....and becomes an instant start/possible league winner/changer if Rob gets hurt....heck he is already being ranked by FBG over at least 4 "starters" at 28....in a 12 team league he is a top 4 RB3....with injuries etc. at RB, those guys matter...and many times worth the "energy" when it comes to winning or losing your leagues...

Don’t college QBs have yards-lost-on-sacks count against their rushing yardage and stats?

I could be wrong(and someone please correct me if I am wrong) , but my understanding is it only counts as negative rush yards if it looks like the QB's apparent intent was to run with the football. if he was running to try to get away from the pass rush that still counts as a sack and no negative rush yards.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

he's been doubted his whole life and now (understandably) it's the fantasy community's turn....coming off a down year....a decent deal, but somewhat of a "prove it" deal on a new team with another capable back (like Gordon back in the day?)....he has generally responded to the doubters and "prove it" type situations in the past....all the way back to coming out of high school when every college team (except one) wanted him to switch to defense....obviously an injury to either him or Robinson probably vaults the other into instant start status....but I feel Eck can still be a flex/RB3 type in PRR as the floor, with possibility (depending on how the offense looks/shakes out between now and the start of season) a mid to lower end RB2...if you have two solid/decent RB's rostered and one gets hurt and you got to start two, you could probably do worse then Eck....think he could be decent value at ADP...

But how much do you envision Daniels checking it down?

I keep reading the PPR/pass catching points. I see a rookie QB that excels at running, and don't envious a lot of dump offs. While Ekeler excels as a pass catcher, are the opportunities going to be enough to give him 50+ catches?

I think trying to predict Daniels propensity to check down vs "taking off" at the NFL level and in this offense (at this point) might kinda be a waste of time and not something to base your drafting or not of Eck on...I think many are "assuming" he will take off instead of checking down, and then the others are assuming he will check down a lot cause he is a rookie, etc....maybe a better way to look at is how much will there be "designed" check downs so to speak....Eck and Rob can both catch so I feel it would be safe to assume whether Daniels takes off or not....designed passes to the RB will be part of the game plan....it probably would be stupid not to make it part of the plan if you bring in a guy like Eck where that is the strength of his game.....and the WR/TE room there isn't really one of the best in the league at this point....

It's based on logic/past performance of the archetype. Running QB's tend to run when immobile QB's dump it off. Sometimes they'll still dump it off...but the running ability replaces many of those RB pass opportunities.

Josh Allen's top receiving back didn't hit 40 receptions his rookie year
Kyler Murray's top receiving back didn't hit 40 receptions his 1st year.
Lamar's top running back his 2nd year (1st full time year as starter) had 26 receptions.
Hurts 1st year as the full time starter, Gainwell topped the list at 33 receptions.

Running quarterbacks replace a fair amount of dump off opportunities with scrambles. It's just fact.
Could Daniels be the outlier that doesn't do that? Maybe.

But projecting Ekeler to get 50 receptions from a running QB feels like a lofty bar. Maybe I'll be wrong. I'll certainly let you have him in drafts.

just conversation, but your first guy....Josh Allen.... averaged just over 3 yards a carry in college (716 on 235 attempts last two years) ....he wasn't exactly a "running QB" coming out of college....especially compared to Daniels who in his senior season alone averaged over 8 yards a carry (1134 on 135) ....so narratives sometimes change....to be fair, I didn't look at the others....

lol....fwiw...Clay has Eck right at exactly 50 receptions on 68 targets...so 50 may be about right once other projections come out closer to the season...

1. Allen ran for 631 yards his rookie year in the NFL. I would argue that someone that has over 100 rushes/season in college is a running QB regardless of their yards per carry.

2. I said way up thread that I've seen several places projecting 50 receptions. I just don't follow the thinking. 70 targets from a rushing QB seems like a lofty projection unless you think he's throwing it 600 times on the year. And I don't see that. That was the point of the conversation. That there seems to be a disconnect in the projections and the situation. Maybe I'll be the one in the wrong. It just seems completely opposite of logic. Any other time we have a mobile QB, we talk about how their RB's probably wont' see a ton of passing work.

FBG has him at RB28. It's probably not worth a ton of energy going back and forth about the 28th RB.

fair enough....Allen rushed I think 92 times for 204 yards...a 2.2 YPC average his senior year....I don't think anybody really saw 631 yards coming his rookie year in NFL...?....did you..?...that's almost as much as he had his entire college career...I think yards per carry actually do matter if assessing whether a guy is a "running QB" or not.....to me he most certainly "wasn't" in college but then once he got to the NFL he has become one...I guess we can disagree....

but back to Eck...I mean yeah he may be in the low 20's in most rankings right now, but talking about this **** is why this site even exists....dude went from an undrafted player to a top 5 fantasy pick pretty quickly....he may end up being the starter/getting the most work once the season hits.....they went and got him....and becomes an instant start/possible league winner/changer if Rob gets hurt....heck he is already being ranked by FBG over at least 4 "starters" at 28....in a 12 team league he is a top 4 RB3....with injuries etc. at RB, those guys matter...and many times worth the "energy" when it comes to winning or losing your leagues...

Don’t college QBs have yards-lost-on-sacks count against their rushing yardage and stats?

I had to look it up because I wasn't 100% sure, but here's what I found:

Yes, in college football, sacks are counted as negative rushing yards for both the player and their team in official statistics. This is different from the NFL, where sacks are not counted in the quarterback's rushing or passing yardage, but are instead counted as part of the team's passing yardage.

Didn't realize it was counted against passing yardage in the NFL. Learn something new every day!

 

[jm192]

The 2019 AZ numbers are probably our best predictor since it's the same OC with a running rookie QB in Murray.

I am not the best at this, so if someone can crunch the numbers better please do. By my count I see 103 targets and 76 receptions to 3 different RBs. So, if Eck can be the primary pass catcher 50 rec seems reasonable.

That's the best argument for it I've heard, and it may come to pass.

My concern is the whole "everyone has a plan until you get punched in the mouth." It's great to say we're going to utilize the RB in the passing game--but a lot of the mobile rookie QB's have taken off when the pressure comes or the 1st couple of options aren't open.

But maybe Kliff designs several running back passes.

 

[Payne]

I'm not even worried about the checkdowns, I just think Robinson is the better RB.
He is younger, better built for the workload and has shown he can catch just fine.

 

[menobrown]

Here's the career percentage of targets that went to the RB position among recent QBs selected in the NFL Draft, per
@TruMediaSports

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twitter.com

 

[Faust]

Commanders' Austin Ekeler aims to reclaim role as top fantasy running back

 

[Faust]

@32BeatWriters
“How much Ekeler eats into Robinson’s usage depends on how the veteran, who has over 1,400 career touches, holds up physically.

The ex-Los Angeles Charger averaged a career-low 3.5 yardsper carry last season following a Week 1 ankle injury. Ekeler offers Daniels a viable safety valve capable of turning a swing pass into a chain-moving reception. Projecting eight to 12 touches per game seems fair for now.”

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[Payne]

@32BeatWriters
“How much Ekeler eats into Robinson’s usage depends on how the veteran, who has over 1,400 career touches, holds up physically.

The ex-Los Angeles Charger averaged a career-low 3.5 yardsper carry last season following a Week 1 ankle injury. Ekeler offers Daniels a viable safety valve capable of turning a swing pass into a chain-moving reception. Projecting eight to 12 touches per game seems fair for now.”

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Robinson still a massive steal

 

[ratbast]

His ceiling is 50/50 with BRob Jr. who doesn’t get the respect he deserves.

 

[Faust]

Jeff Mueller
Several reports on Austin Ekeler looking very explosive, quick in his first Washington camp.
Decent chance his 2023 season was hindered by his high ankle sprain and he returns as a PPR threat in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense.

Currently RB41 in ADP

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[Faust]

@32BeatWriters
“He looked relatively quick bursting through the line — again, no tackling allowed. Ekeler showed off his receiver chops near the goal line on a man-beater route. The offensive line allowed pass rushers to work up the field. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels patiently backpedaled before finding Ekeler alone near the goal line for a touchdown.”

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[Payne]

@32BeatWriters
“He looked relatively quick bursting through the line — again, no tackling allowed. Ekeler showed off his receiver chops near the goal line on a man-beater route. The offensive line allowed pass rushers to work up the field. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels patiently backpedaled before finding Ekeler alone near the goal line for a touchdown.”

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Robinson becoming an even better value.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Observations:

• Last year, Ekeler's ADP was in the RB2/3 overall range. An unquestioned 1st round pick. An epically disappointing season ensued which has the FF community feeling like the RB skills/effectiveness decline has begun.
  • Was it age or injury that sapped his effectiveness
  • Why did LAC not pursue? Ekeler is a conditioning freak
• Adam Peters (GM)/Dan Quinn (HC) are 2024 hires
  • Between Brob and Ekeler, Ekeler is 'their' guy. 2 yr $10M
  • This is not to say he'll replace BRob...at Quinn's peak as ATL's HC, he featured a two-headed backfield of Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman
• At his peak, Ekeler was an efficiency monster. This peak was evident as recently as 2022.
• While BRob showed improved receiving skills in 2023, particularly in 2H23, Ekeler has historically been an incorporated part of the passing game and this shows up throughout his career
  • Since 2019, Ekeler has averaged over 5 receptions and 40 YPG with 24 receiving TD's.
• WAS top 2 WR's are McLaurin & Dotson...so having a threat instead of an option in the passing game might be what WAS is looking to incorporate in 2024.

This isn't meant to disparage BRob. But as it relates to high value situation for RB's

• Ekeler would appear to be the preferred receiving option
• As recently as 2022, Ekeler led the NFL in rushing efficiency in the red zone per PFF.

IMO, if 2023 was a function of injury and not decline...I'd think that Ekeler's production will not be at the RB3 /4 level where he's being drafted today.

 

[Tau837]

Observations:

• Last year, Ekeler's ADP was in the RB2/3 overall range. An unquestioned 1st round pick. An epically disappointing season ensued which has the FF community feeling like the RB skills/effectiveness decline has begun.
  • Was it age or injury that sapped his effectiveness
  • Why did LAC not pursue? Ekeler is a conditioning freak
• Adam Peters (GM)/Dan Quinn (HC) are 2024 hires
  • Between Brob and Ekeler, Ekeler is 'their' guy. 2 yr $10M
  • This is not to say he'll replace BRob...at Quinn's peak as ATL's HC, he featured a two-headed backfield of Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman
• At his peak, Ekeler was an efficiency monster. This peak was evident as recently as 2022.
• While BRob showed improved receiving skills in 2023, particularly in 2H23, Ekeler has historically been an incorporated part of the passing game and this shows up throughout his career
  • Since 2019, Ekeler has averaged over 5 receptions and 40 YPG with 24 receiving TD's.
• WAS top 2 WR's are McLaurin & Dotson...so having a threat instead of an option in the passing game might be what WAS is looking to incorporate in 2024.

This isn't meant to disparage BRob. But as it relates to high value situation for RB's

• Ekeler would appear to be the preferred receiving option
• As recently as 2022, Ekeler led the NFL in rushing efficiency in the red zone per PFF.

IMO, if 2023 was a function of injury and not decline...I'd think that Ekeler's production will not be at the RB3 /4 level where he's being drafted tODAY.

Ekeler averaged 6.4 targets per game from 2019-2023. How many is he likely to get in the WAS offense? Is it expected that Daniels will check down a lot as opposed to just tucking and running?

 

[FarFromHome]

At his 11th round ADP sure feels like I'll have a few Ekelers on my rosters.

 

[Payne]

Keep pushing down Robinson. Music to my ears.

 

[barackdhouse]

The market is dramatically wrong about one of these two RBs. And probably moderately wrong about the other.

By week 2 there will be a narrative "why didn't we see this coming?"

I think Brian Robinson is the big steal but Ekeler feels like very good value also. This is one of the top ambiguous backfields to target. Heavily. Though I do think the week 14 bye has role in their ADP in tourneys like FPC and Main Event and so forth where week 14 is the championship round. But ADP across the other 100ks of drafts elsewhere mirrors that pattern so I think it's just a huge market gap.

Brian Robinson is my highest rostered RB in BestBall through 120 drafts at 38% and 45 shares. So far his ADP is still egregiously absurd but it's hard to stay healthy and not overdraft him.
Ekeler is the answer to that and I need to get more. Through 120 drafts he is at 7% and 8 shares and that is too low.

I can get on board with saying his 2023 decline was more about the high ankle sprain than the age. He will fill a 3rd down and receiving role that has value. He'll get some carries but Robinson is going to dominate touches IMO and he is also capable of catching his own 25-35 balls. And I think 90% of goal to go carries will go to Robinson. He has double digit TD upside and easy 225+ carries.

 

[barackdhouse]

projections:

Robinson: 225/1100/12 + 30/240/2 248 PPR - good enough for RB7 last year - ADP in July BB drafts has him going at RB30 at 9.06 (n=215 drafts)
Ekeler: 120/500/3 + 50/450/4 187 PPR - good enough for RB22 last year (one behind where Robinson actually finished) - ADP in July BB drafts is RB33 at 10.01 (n=212)

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Observations:

• Last year, Ekeler's ADP was in the RB2/3 overall range. An unquestioned 1st round pick. An epically disappointing season ensued which has the FF community feeling like the RB skills/effectiveness decline has begun.
  • Was it age or injury that sapped his effectiveness
  • Why did LAC not pursue? Ekeler is a conditioning freak
• Adam Peters (GM)/Dan Quinn (HC) are 2024 hires
  • Between Brob and Ekeler, Ekeler is 'their' guy. 2 yr $10M
  • This is not to say he'll replace BRob...at Quinn's peak as ATL's HC, he featured a two-headed backfield of Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman
• At his peak, Ekeler was an efficiency monster. This peak was evident as recently as 2022.
• While BRob showed improved receiving skills in 2023, particularly in 2H23, Ekeler has historically been an incorporated part of the passing game and this shows up throughout his career
  • Since 2019, Ekeler has averaged over 5 receptions and 40 YPG with 24 receiving TD's.
• WAS top 2 WR's are McLaurin & Dotson...so having a threat instead of an option in the passing game might be what WAS is looking to incorporate in 2024.

This isn't meant to disparage BRob. But as it relates to high value situation for RB's

• Ekeler would appear to be the preferred receiving option
• As recently as 2022, Ekeler led the NFL in rushing efficiency in the red zone per PFF.

IMO, if 2023 was a function of injury and not decline...I'd think that Ekeler's production will not be at the RB3 /4 level where he's being drafted tODAY.

Ekeler averaged 6.4 targets per game from 2019-2023. How many is he likely to get in the WAS offense? Is it expected that Daniels will check down a lot as opposed to just tucking and running?

Likely not...but I'm not anticipating a return to pre-23 form when he was an unquestioned RB1.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

projections:

Robinson: 225/1100/12 + 30/240/2 248 PPR - good enough for RB7 last year - ADP in July BB drafts has him going at RB30 at 9.06 (n=215 drafts)
Ekeler: 120/500/3 + 50/450/4 187 PPR - good enough for RB22 last year (one behind where Robinson actually finished) - ADP in July BB drafts is RB33 at 10.01 (n=212)

Brian Robinson Jr. Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Brian Robinson Jr.. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

Where do we send sympathy cards for you?
797-2TD
733-5TD in 15 STARTS last year

Ekeler's Resume...
1550/11TD and 92 receptions...how is D.C's Wide Receivers doing these days?
1558/20TD and 70 receptions
1637/18TD and 107 receptions...you did tout BRob's receiving skills, right? I did read that as a talking point on why Robinson is on a **** ton of your rosters for Redraft '24 or are we talking Dynasty because as I recall you are heavy dynasty player and I'm NOT

I'm sure they will just force feed Brian Robinson
I'll take the OVER on Ekeler and the UNDER on BRob all day every day and 3 ways to Sunday my friend
And you know I love your energy around here but we're gonna butt heads on this one and you seem way too confident IMHO so i thought I might show you a blind spot here.

They're paying Ekeler starting RB money, BRob is in Year 3 of his rookie deal...$500K maybe?

Good Luck!

 

[Brunell4MVP]

Ekeler is gonna be the main man IMO.

 

[barackdhouse]

projections:

Robinson: 225/1100/12 + 30/240/2 248 PPR - good enough for RB7 last year - ADP in July BB drafts has him going at RB30 at 9.06 (n=215 drafts)
Ekeler: 120/500/3 + 50/450/4 187 PPR - good enough for RB22 last year (one behind where Robinson actually finished) - ADP in July BB drafts is RB33 at 10.01 (n=212)

you did tout BRob's receiving skills, right? I did read that as a talking point on why Robinson is on a **** ton of your rosters for Redraft '24 or are we talking Dynasty because as I recall you are heavy dynasty player and I'm NOT

I was talking about best ball and I actually did say that in the original post as well as in the ADP I'm referencing here.

It's fine that you are higher on Ekeler, it's not a crazy opinion. And if you actually read what I wrote before replying you'd see that I acknowledged I need to get more of him. My projections are simply one end of the range of estimates, and on the other end is where your take comes in. And you may very well be right about the split.

But just please try and read before you respond. I left absolutely zero ambiguity that I was talking about best ball. And it drives me crazy when people miss that **** and then reply anyway. No biggie but it's a systemic problem around here.

And as for dynasty no I'm down to 8 teams now (from a peak 3 years ago of 37) and have sort of my normal portfolio of redraft leagues, mostly the $350 FPCs and a main event or two, along with my home leagues. Most all of that hasn't even been drafted yet and it represents around 3/4 of my annual budget. So these 120 best ball teams are something that I treat sort of like a mass mock-drafting exercise but with real money on the line (that I've profited off meagerly but consistently the last couple years but in the big tourneys I'm at least taking dart throws at huge prizes) and where I learn just a ton of information when I go into this late August/early September drafting season where most of my money goes.

TLDR moving my portfolio from dynasty ->>> best ball over the last couple years.

But, to be fair here is my rostership in redraft and dynasty ATM:

haha ok so now looking I have 0 shares of Robinson in dynasty - he is a guy I faded because I was a heavy Gibson stan - I have Robinson in 2/9 FPCs I've drafted so far
Ekeler - 0 dynasty shares. He was too premium of a cost for me to ever acquire when he was a Charger - I have him in 1/9 FPCs

Neither player on my Scott Fish Bowl team so I guess 20% and 10% respectively.

 

[Tau837]

Ekeler's Resume...
1550/11TD and 92 receptions...how is D.C's Wide Receivers doing these days?
1558/20TD and 70 receptions
1637/18TD and 107 receptions...you did tout BRob's receiving skills, right? I did read that as a talking point on why Robinson is on a **** ton of your rosters for Redraft '24 or are we talking Dynasty because as I recall you are heavy dynasty player and I'm NOT

Such cherry picking. You picked out Ekeler's best 3 seasons -- 2019, 2021, 20222 -- while ignoring 2020 and 2023. Come on, man.

 

[barackdhouse]

thing is, for me , the ADP area these guys are going in is the same area that there are around a thousand other names I like a lot. those rounds from like 7 to 13 are just stupid deep this year IMO. I would have more Robinson and Ekeler if not for wanting to get other guys in those spots. and of course the best ball approach of stacking influences a lot of the individual rostership trends.

I don't necessarily have a lot of Jayden Daniels but I have some McLaurin/Dotson/Robinson combos for example.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

projections:

Robinson: 225/1100/12 + 30/240/2 248 PPR - good enough for RB7 last year - ADP in July BB drafts has him going at RB30 at 9.06 (n=215 drafts)
Ekeler: 120/500/3 + 50/450/4 187 PPR - good enough for RB22 last year (one behind where Robinson actually finished) - ADP in July BB drafts is RB33 at 10.01 (n=212)

you did tout BRob's receiving skills, right? I did read that as a talking point on why Robinson is on a **** ton of your rosters for Redraft '24 or are we talking Dynasty because as I recall you are heavy dynasty player and I'm NOT

I was talking about best ball and I actually did say that in the original post as well as in the ADP I'm referencing here.

It's fine that you are higher on Ekeler, it's not a crazy opinion. And if you actually read what I wrote before replying you'd see that I acknowledged I need to get more of him. My projections are simply one end of the range of estimates, and on the other end is where your take comes in. And you may very well be right about the split.

But just please try and read before you respond. I left absolutely zero ambiguity that I was talking about best ball. And it drives me crazy when people miss that **** and then reply anyway. No biggie but it's a systemic problem around here.

And as for dynasty no I'm down to 8 teams now (from a peak 3 years ago of 37) and have sort of my normal portfolio of redraft leagues, mostly the $350 FPCs and a main event or two, along with my home leagues. Most all of that hasn't even been drafted yet and it represents around 3/4 of my annual budget. So these 120 best ball teams are something that I treat sort of like a mass mock-drafting exercise but with real money on the line (that I've profited off meagerly but consistently the last couple years but in the big tourneys I'm at least taking dart throws at huge prizes) and where I learn just a ton of information when I go into this late August/early September drafting season where most of my money goes.

TLDR moving my portfolio from dynasty ->>> best ball over the last couple years.

But, to be fair here is my rostership in redraft and dynasty ATM:

haha ok so now looking I have 0 shares of Robinson in dynasty - he is a guy I faded because I was a heavy Gibson stan - I have Robinson in 2/9 FPCs I've drafted so far
Ekeler - 0 dynasty shares. He was too premium of a cost for me to ever acquire when he was a Charger - I have him in 1/9 FPCs

Neither player on my Scott Fish Bowl team so I guess 20% and 10% respectively.

I play BB redraft as well, a lot.
I still wouldn't take BRob over Ekeler
I understand what you're saying,

Imagine if BRob slides back to around 6-7 yds a catch like his rookie year and those extra 5 TDs he caught last year, I'll take the under again on that.
Ekeler is like having a No 2 WR in your backfield, that's not BRob's calling card IMHO

I'm not the one that drafted him 40 times
But I also don't think Ekeler will hit his previous numbers, no way. But for where he is being drafted he seems like free money and he's not the only veteran RB that landed on anew team that I think will do very well. Someone brought up that RBs changing teams usually don't fare well but many of the ones in the off season are still in their prime. And I've never seen this many RB1 or starting RBs go to other teams in the off season, not this many anyways.

Good stuff

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Ekeler's Resume...
1550/11TD and 92 receptions...how is D.C's Wide Receivers doing these days?
1558/20TD and 70 receptions
1637/18TD and 107 receptions...you did tout BRob's receiving skills, right? I did read that as a talking point on why Robinson is on a **** ton of your rosters for Redraft '24 or are we talking Dynasty because as I recall you are heavy dynasty player and I'm NOT

Such cherry picking. You picked out Ekeler's best 3 seasons -- 2019, 2021, 20222 -- while ignoring 2020 and 2023. Come on, man.

"Resume"
I don't see anything close on the other guys sheet
And it's not like ancient history
"C'mon man"

 

[barackdhouse]

projections:

Robinson: 225/1100/12 + 30/240/2 248 PPR - good enough for RB7 last year - ADP in July BB drafts has him going at RB30 at 9.06 (n=215 drafts)
Ekeler: 120/500/3 + 50/450/4 187 PPR - good enough for RB22 last year (one behind where Robinson actually finished) - ADP in July BB drafts is RB33 at 10.01 (n=212)

you did tout BRob's receiving skills, right? I did read that as a talking point on why Robinson is on a **** ton of your rosters for Redraft '24 or are we talking Dynasty because as I recall you are heavy dynasty player and I'm NOT

I was talking about best ball and I actually did say that in the original post as well as in the ADP I'm referencing here.

It's fine that you are higher on Ekeler, it's not a crazy opinion. And if you actually read what I wrote before replying you'd see that I acknowledged I need to get more of him. My projections are simply one end of the range of estimates, and on the other end is where your take comes in. And you may very well be right about the split.

But just please try and read before you respond. I left absolutely zero ambiguity that I was talking about best ball. And it drives me crazy when people miss that **** and then reply anyway. No biggie but it's a systemic problem around here.

And as for dynasty no I'm down to 8 teams now (from a peak 3 years ago of 37) and have sort of my normal portfolio of redraft leagues, mostly the $350 FPCs and a main event or two, along with my home leagues. Most all of that hasn't even been drafted yet and it represents around 3/4 of my annual budget. So these 120 best ball teams are something that I treat sort of like a mass mock-drafting exercise but with real money on the line (that I've profited off meagerly but consistently the last couple years but in the big tourneys I'm at least taking dart throws at huge prizes) and where I learn just a ton of information when I go into this late August/early September drafting season where most of my money goes.

TLDR moving my portfolio from dynasty ->>> best ball over the last couple years.

But, to be fair here is my rostership in redraft and dynasty ATM:

haha ok so now looking I have 0 shares of Robinson in dynasty - he is a guy I faded because I was a heavy Gibson stan - I have Robinson in 2/9 FPCs I've drafted so far
Ekeler - 0 dynasty shares. He was too premium of a cost for me to ever acquire when he was a Charger - I have him in 1/9 FPCs

Neither player on my Scott Fish Bowl team so I guess 20% and 10% respectively.

I play BB redraft as well, a lot.
I still wouldn't take BRob over Ekeler
I understand what you're saying,

Imagine if BRob slides back to around 6-7 yds a catch like his rookie year and those extra 5 TDs he caught last year, I'll take the under again on that.
Ekeler is like having a No 2 WR in your backfield, that's not BRob's calling card IMHO

I'm not the one that drafted him 40 times
But I also don't think Ekeler will hit his previous numbers, no way. But for where he is being drafted he seems like free money and he's not the only veteran RB that landed on anew team that I think will do very well. Someone brought up that RBs changing teams usually don't fare well but many of the ones in the off season are still in their prime. And I've never seen this many RB1 or starting RBs go to other teams in the off season, not this many anyways.

Good stuff

well I tell you what one of the other BB strategies that many folks have offered but typically is avoided, is to draft both of them. And I've done it a couple times and don't mind doing it agian. Their ADP is nearly identical. If you're at one of the ends of the snake....I don't think it's such a bad idea to go that route sometimes. There isn't as much upside with two backs from the same team but it's also a lock. do that with one other backfield and then like say a hero RB or just one other solid 5th RB and you can really load up at other positions. But like I'm trying super fricking hard to say, I think Ekeler is a value. I like Brian more but that's ok man I get you.

The money paid to them has zero bearing whatsoever to me though because one is one a rookie contract and one was a proven FA commodity that was GOING to get paid something much higher than Robinson. Apples and oranges. They're both going to play a lot.

 

[TheWinz]

Such cherry picking. You picked out Ekeler's best 3 seasons -- 2019, 2021, 20222 -- while ignoring 2020 and 2023. Come on, man.

One could argue 2017, 2018, and 2020 were just as good. He just didn't have as many touches.
2017, 2018, 2020 combined he had 2430 total yards on 389 touches = 6.25 yards per touch
2019, 2021, 2022 combined he had 4745 total yards on 811 touches = 5.85 yards per touch

And yes, I am cherry picking by leaving the TD's off. I do think we can all agree 2023 was Eke's worst year thus far. Very curious to see how this plays out in WAS with Robinson.

 

[LawFitz]

One could argue 2017, 2018, and 2020 were just as good. He just didn't have as many touches.

First thought as I read this sentence was Jaylen Warren is going to rhyme this history at some point soon.

 

[LawFitz]

How we feeling about the Commando OL?

 

[ZADO]

How we feeling about the Commando OL?

Updated 2024 NFL offensive line rankings: Lions take top spot, led by Penei Sewell and Frank Ragnow

We rank all 32 NFL offensive lines ahead of the 2024 season, beginning with the Detroit Lions.

www.pff.com

 

[LawFitz]

How we feeling about the Commando OL?

Updated 2024 NFL offensive line rankings: Lions take top spot, led by Penei Sewell and Frank Ragnow

We rank all 32 NFL offensive lines ahead of the 2024 season, beginning with the Detroit Lions.

www.pff.com

27. Washington Commanders
The Commanders almost completely overhauled their offensive line, slotting in three new starters for 2024. Cornelius Lucas, a backup in recent years, is taking on the starting left tackle job, former Chiefs backup offensive lineman Nick Allegretti is expected to play at left guard and Tyler Biadasz, acquired in free agency, will start at center.

Sam Cosmi, who ranked fourth among guards in PFF grade in 2023, and Andrew Wylie represent the continuity on the right side of the line.

 

[Matheson]

I did a search and couldn't find anything about goal line work so far. I think maybe there's some conventional wisdom that Robinson is way bigger and seems like the guy.

Ekeler at times (early) in his career has come out at the goal line and at times (in his prime) has been among the best in the NFL at the goal line.

I don't think there's any debate Robinson gets more rush attempts overall but Ekeler has shown he can turn 8-10 rush attempts a game + 4-8 receptions a game + goal line work into pretty amazing production.

 

[Faust]

The Coachspeak Index
#Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury on the RB room:

“Austin Ekeler has been fantastic. I think there’s a narrative out there that maybe he lost a step, or something was off, and that couldn’t be further from the truth from what I’ve seen… [Brian Robinson], he’s a No. 1 back in this league, there’s no doubt.”

x.com

x.com

 

[BIRDGANG52]

I think he's cashed. If he looked good, the Redskins would be telling you about how awesome he is. Instead, they're telling you how awesome Brian Robinson is.

 

[Max Power]

I think his value bumps a bit with Dotson gone. If healthy he is the second best receiving option the team has right now. He should still be a very solid PPR play.

 

[travdogg]

I think he's cashed. If he looked good, the Redskins would be telling you about how awesome he is. Instead, they're telling you how awesome Brian Robinson is.

Could also argue the new staff just thinks highly of Robinson, and was surprised how awful Bienemy was as an OC being the most pass heavy offense in the NFL, with Robinson in the backfield.

I think Robinson has been really solid under the circumstances in his career, but Ekeler is unquestionably the better receiver.

I'm thinking something like a 55-45 split favoring Robinson. Robinson as a high-end RB3, and Ekeler as a low-end RB3, with either breaking into the RB2 range with an injury to the other.

 

[Payne]

Robinson is such a steal.

 

[cockroach]

Robinson is such a steal.

I was looking at him game log last night and he only had 1 or 2 bad games. Real solid 8-9 point floor with 25 point upside. Not sexy but a great guy to have on your roster.

 

[Faust]

Zach Selby
Kingsbury said Austin Ekeler still has some juice to him. Has worked hard ever since he joined the team

x.com

x.com

 

[Panda13]

I read Ekeler only had one carry and once reception through 3 quarters last week? Can any Commanders fans tune in or anyone who saw the game? I need a flex bad and I already have B-Rob as my rb2. My league does stupidly award return yards as equal to rushing yards (dumb). So because of this Ekeler still got over 13 pts last week. Is he a lock as the primary kick returner?

I did pick up Spears this week and Rotoballer has it as a plus matchup vs the Jets.

 

[ffmail4me]

I read Ekeler only had one carry and once reception through 3 quarters last week? Can any Commanders fans tune in or anyone who saw the game? I need a flex bad and I already have B-Rob as my rb2. My league does stupidly award return yards as equal to rushing yards (dumb). So because of this Ekeler still got over 13 pts last week. Is he a lock as the primary kick returner?

I did pick up Spears this week and Rotoballer has it as a plus matchup vs the Jets.

I would start Spears over Ekeler. Robinson is clearly the starting RB.

 

[Faust]

JP Finlay
Ekeler being evaluated for concussion.

x.com

x.com

 

[FarFromHome]

JP Finlay
Ekeler being evaluated for concussion.

x.com

x.com

Doh!

 

[FarFromHome]

Concussion. Short week. Gotta think Ekeler misses week 4

 

[TampaMike19]

Concussion. Short week. Gotta think Ekeler misses week 4

So was him being “cooked” exaggerated? Seems to have good efficiency metrics this year but maybe needed to not be the only guy in the backfield.