Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I trade up.
Gibbs isn’t Bijan, nor do I see him as a great fit to replace Mixon, unless they bring in a bruiser to split carries.
I’m sure folks will disagree here as well.
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RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Gibbs isn’t Bijan, nor do I see him as a great fit to replace Mixon, unless they bring in a bruiser to split carries.
I’m sure folks will disagree here as well.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He’s not in the NFL yet, so I guess we’ll have to wait.
Interesting thought experiment - who would you bet on having a better season in 2023, JT or Bijan?
rockaction
Footballguy
Bijan due to Taylor's ankle issues/surgery. I'd rather have the healthy guy, and ankle injuries worry the ever-living out of me.
Same reason I think Bijan is the RB1 in dynasty over Breece. Injury.
I do not, however, based on college stats and film alone, believe he's better than either of those backs.
When all three are healthy, give me Taylor.
rockaction
Footballguy
Amazing how Dobbins's injury and usage in Baltimore preclude us from ever discussing him in this rarefied air. He was electric at tOSU. Sad.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Agree here. Dobbins was special prior to the knee. Gives me concern for JaWill as well.
rockaction
Footballguy
Gives me a ton of concern for JaWill. Dobbins aced him a bit in terms of talent and speed, and look what's happened to Dobbins. Serious Javonte worries.
rockaction
Footballguy
That's interesting. Mike Ditka might agree with you there.
How does Bijan compare to Josh Jacobs drafted 1.24 in 2019? Jacobs wasn't that fast, 4.64, but powerful, patient, good vision, good hands. And now all pro.
If a team waits too long on Bijan, they'll get scooped and there won't be another comparable all around back until .... much later.
If a team waits too long on Bijan, they'll get scooped and there won't be another comparable all around back until .... much later.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
IMO Bijan blows away Jacobs as a prospect. Faster, shiftier, better lateral movement, better burst, same strength & YAC, but also more elusive. Also a better, more fluid receiver.
Bijan just ran a 4.46 at 215 LBs.
I like Jacobs. He’s a very good pro RB. He’s not close to Robinson.
rockaction
Footballguy
To many -- including myself -- Jacobs was drafted too highly given his profile. That was a Gruden and Mayock special. But I'm coming around to the postulation that most any back in the first round is too high.
I do think Jacobs has been an excellent professional back, one who was ironically unlocked after the coaches and GM that drafted him were fired.
I think Bijan is a better back, though, Faust's post notwithstanding. I think their physical profiles are very different. No disrespect to that post, but I'm not too sure that's a good comparison.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I still think Edgerrin James is a better comp. Edge was 6’ 220, and ran a sub 4.4, but other than the .8 seconds difference watching film on Bijan reminds me of James.
Regardless I’d rather not see Penny’s name. lol
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don’t love any of those comps, tbh. No offense to Faust of course.
deAnkelo maybe - IIRC he wasn’t as strong of a runner, nor did he break tackles like Bijan. Also 5’9 V’s 5’11. DW ran a 4.4 though.
Ryan Matthews might actually be the best comp on that list. 4.45, 6’ 218 - also a pretty elusive & also powerful runner IIRC.
Hook'em. Agreed.... I have been a little confused with the worshipping of Bijan and the simultaneous lack of love for Roschon. Bijan always looked really good, but not THAT good (getting the hall of fame nod before he is drafted). The offense didn't miss a beat when Roschon subbed in.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That doesn’t mean Roschon = Bijan
Dude ran a 4.59, then a 4.65 40
Good burst and some power, but he’s nowhere near the prospect Bijan is.
No it doesn't (we've gone around this track already). But his production, without looking, on a per carry basis I'm betting near identical. Bijan's big plays were bigger, but Roschon had plenty long runs as well... just not the home run speed.
I'm not saying Roschon = Bijan, I'm saying Bijan might not be the prospect he is being propped up to be. Either Roschon is better than he is getting credit for, or there is at least some credit needing to be given to the system/oline.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
Roschon in the 4th instead of Bijan in the 1st behind an OL like the Eagles makes a lot of sense.
Agreed, with the caveat that Jacobs also has improved as a pro. Certainly 2019 Jacobs wasn't as good as 2023 Bijan, but I'd bet against Bijan ever having as good of a season as 2022 Jacobs. Which isn't a knock by any means, as 2,000 yard, 12 TD seasons are pretty rare at the RB position these days, as they require bell cow status, and almost prefect circumstances to occur. The only times they have happened in the last decade are:
2014 DeMarco Murray, on 449 touches.
2014 Le'Veon Bell, who had 854 receiving yards.
2016 David Johnson, who had 879 receiving yards.
2017 Todd Gurley, who had 788 receiving yards.
2018 Saquon Barkley, who had 91 catches
2019 Christian McCaffrey, who had 1,005 receiving yards
2020 Derrick Henry, who had 378 carries
2021 Jonathan Taylor, who averaged 5.5 per carry and had 372 touches
2022 Josh Jacobs on 393 touches.
Side note about Jacobs, if the Raiders hadn't taken him, there is a very good chance he wouldn't have been a 1st round pick that year.
I think Bijan is the best RB prospect since Barkley in 2018, but that doesn't mean he'll ever be as productive as anyone on this list, even if he's as good or better as a player. RB is so dependent on team. I've long thought Aaron Jones is one of the best RBs in the NFL, but GB never gives him even 300 touches, so his production has never fully matched his ability, even if I'd argue he's a better player than half the guys on this list.
Also, that whole thing about Bijan being the best prospect since Barkley, I think speaks more to the lack of truly great RB prospects than Bijan being a generational talent. I think CMC, Zeke, Gurley, and in my minority opinion, Dalvin Cook, were better prospects when they came out. I was never a huge fan of Fournette or Gordon when they came out, but they were probably comparable prospects, as was Penny arguably.
rockaction
Footballguy
Roschon, in my opinion, is getting a lot of credit. He might be a Day Two guy if you listen to certain draftniks and Rotounderworld (Player Profiler and offshoots). They're all-in on Roschon. I'm not, personally, but he is getting that credit in certain circles.
Guy runs nothing like Bijan, though, IMO. Bijan, IMO, is worlds better. Bijan's movement in his lower body (that curvilinear movement Waldman talks about) is sick. His long speed is very good. Roschon has neither of those things, really.
That might bolster your argument about the offensive line. All I know is I see one back that's excellent and one back that I think is merely above-average. If Roschon did that well behind that line, maybe it is the line. Or maybe it's the competition they faced. And maybe Bijan did indeed benefit from said line or competition.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
in lock step on. 
You probably missed it, but we have been around this block.
I agree Bijan is better. I 100000% see Bijan as this years #1 rookie fantasy pick.
I strongly disagree with the Sammy Watkins level hype.... and like I predicted Watkins would end up more like Crabtree than Andre Johnson - I think Bijan is a strong NFL RB, a clear #1. I don't think he is "worlds better" - else I would have expected to see something different than what I saw watching every UT game ever with few exceptions. They are way different talents, way different stylistically, way different on where they come from - If I recall Roschon was recruited to be a QB at UT.
I posted somewhere that the hype gives a narrative of BJ <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Roschon and I see it mor elike BJ<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Roschon
rockaction
Footballguy
Nope, saw it. They're not really comparable backs.
TartanLion
Footballguy
Going back to a discussion that’s been mentioned in the last two pages I still believe taking a top level RB in the 2nd half of the 1st round is a very good idea, despite RBs overall value plummeting in recent.
1. You probably have to, to get the player
2. You get the 5th year option
3. You can then tag once or twice at the higher price without committing to more than a year at a time.
It sucks for top level RBs that they just can’t get the big cheddar these days like they deserve but the Barkley/Jacobs mould of how to do things seems like the best way.
Effectively .. 6 to 7 years of a top top level RB where you only pay a big annual salary once or twice and then you can be done with them.
@rockaction yes RotoUnderworld has Rochon ranked as 4th RB, they are all in on him.
Kendre Miller is my personal RB that I’m really high on, I think he might be 5th on their rankings as well
1. You probably have to, to get the player
2. You get the 5th year option
3. You can then tag once or twice at the higher price without committing to more than a year at a time.
It sucks for top level RBs that they just can’t get the big cheddar these days like they deserve but the Barkley/Jacobs mould of how to do things seems like the best way.
Effectively .. 6 to 7 years of a top top level RB where you only pay a big annual salary once or twice and then you can be done with them.
@rockaction yes RotoUnderworld has Rochon ranked as 4th RB, they are all in on him.
Kendre Miller is my personal RB that I’m really high on, I think he might be 5th on their rankings as well
Apparently you didn't see it, because I was clear in exactly the point that they are not comparable backs. Comparable in per carry stats, comparable in production when subbin in and out - but entirely different in every other way. I believe I used the term "way different" 3 times in the last post.... ????? You sure you "saw it"?
eta - whatever your issue was with em... I can only assure you again I am not him, and it makes these interactions about football players feel like you are taking it personally, which makes it weird.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Staaaahp again. Full stop. You just compared them. How are they now incomparable because they're different stylistically?
You need to really take a long, hard look at your own arguments and not worry about what I'm saying, but what you're saying.
I've CLEARLY and repeatedly laid out my postion. You are taking it here. Again - just weird.
Again for the cheap seats or the slow to learn - NOT the same, just not as wide a gap as the hype. Coming from a UT alumn that only watched or attended most every if not every game each player was in.
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rockaction
Footballguy
There's no misrepresentation.
Perhaps your argument just didn't make sense because you weren't clear in your writing, which is usually an indication the person isn't thinking clearly.
So it is with you. Good day.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Some of the RB rankings are just out of control. I saw Tank Bigsby RB4 in a ranking then RB21 in another. Zach Charbonnet is my RB3 and looking at Kendre Miler or Devon Achane as RB4/5
I like Roscoe Johnson but I doubt I get a chance to get him (early 3rd?).
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m looking at Israel hard at 3.01like this
rockaction
Footballguy
You'd better take him at 2.01. We'll see about the draft, but I have a feeling in non-SF leagues he's going to go in the mid-second at least.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Mine is a SF.
zamboni
Footballguy
I think that is an excellent point - teams are so gun shy about investing so much draft capital in a top RB, yet how many players that they draft instead don’t stick around long either. I think a smart team will go against the grain and we’ll see Bijan go in the teens.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
This reminds me of the theory on 5th year options being somewhat overrated with QBs since that the best ones sign extensions before they ever get to that 5th year (like Hurts) while the busts aren't having theirs picked up anyways.
In this case a solid 4-5 year window to start with gives a team lots of options as they go along.
I'm really starting to think Bijan is seen as one of the few "sure things" of the draft and could go as high as top-10 and maybe even top-6.
zamboni
Footballguy
That sounded preposterous a few months ago, but I could see top 10 now.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Betting-wise, for what it's worth, he's sitting at over/under 16 pick, but at -200 on the under. So it's tending in the direction of that possibility.
In my mock from the end of March, I had 18-30 as his range, I almost put to TB at #19 and ended up settling on NO at #29 (right before Kamara restructured naturally) but right now, I think anything from Arizona at #3, to Houston at #12 is his range.
I think any of Lions #6, Falcons #8, Bears #9, Eagles #10 are on the table.
Its not what I would do at all, I still think 20s is the proper range, but that doesn't seem to be where the wind is blowing, and honestly, I could see Gibbs sneaking into round 1 as well.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
“If” ’is doing some heavy lifting in this sentence.
