RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (1 Viewer)

[BobbyLayne]

Bijan Robinson is an exception to #1 in that he’s a special talent.

If Barry Sanders, Ladanian Tomlinson, or Jim Brown came out in this draft, one would give serious consideration to taking them in the 1st round. I’m not saying Bijan is Tomlinson, but he’s closer to the greats than he is to the last 4-5 years worth of prospects, so you take that risk with him.

Turns out even this argument falls on its face. From a WAR perspective, only P and K would see less of a difference between average replacement and a HoF RB.

Think about that. Elite Offball LB or G have greater impact.

Teams are still welcome to ignore the analytics. Steelers chose to draft a pass catching RB over a badly needed OL. But even if Najee turned out to be Barry or Edge, it was still the wrong move.

They say never say never, 100% words are…oh wow, turns out this one actually is true. You literally should never draft a RB in the first.

I look at it this way. Wanna sell tickets, draft an exciting RB. Those guys ARE exciting to watch. If you want to win championships, it is literally the least efficient use of Draft Capital. Presuming you don’t have a 1st round grade on any punters, kickers or long snappers.

 

[Faust]

2023 NFL Draft prospect profile - Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

 

[Faust]

ESPN's Todd McShay: I have Bijan Robinson as the No. 2 overall player in this draft

McShay: 'Dallas is obsessed' with drafting RB; trading up for Bijan Robinson 'wouldn't shock me'

 

[travdogg]

Bijan Robinson is an exception to #1 in that he’s a special talent.

If Barry Sanders, Ladanian Tomlinson, or Jim Brown came out in this draft, one would give serious consideration to taking them in the 1st round. I’m not saying Bijan is Tomlinson, but he’s closer to the greats than he is to the last 4-5 years worth of prospects, so you take that risk with him.

Turns out even this argument falls on its face. From a WAR perspective, only P and K would see less of a difference between average replacement and a HoF RB.

Think about that. Elite Offball LB or G have greater impact.

Teams are still welcome to ignore the analytics. Steelers chose to draft a pass catching RB over a badly needed OL. But even if Najee turned out to be Barry or Edge, it was still the wrong move.

They say never say never, 100% words are…oh wow, turns out this one actually is true. You literally should never draft a RB in the first.

I look at it this way. Wanna sell tickets, draft an exciting RB. Those guys ARE exciting to watch. If you want to win championships, it is literally the least efficient use of Draft Capital. Presuming you don’t have a 1st round grade on any punters, kickers or long snappers.

This is an interesting post, because as an analytic guy, I half agree. RB has one of the lowest actual values of any position, however, an elite one still has value, and should sometimes be picked in the first round in my opinion.

I think what the issue is, is the assumption that there are 32+ good players in every draft. All things being equal, yeah, a RB who isn't any better at his position than another position player probably isn't going to be a wise investment. But I think an elite RB certainly beats a mediocre OL, or a below average QB.

I think the idea should be draft good players, preferrable at the most valuable positions, but don't pass on great RB's for average players otherwise. I think Bijan should go probably somewhere in the 24-32 range, but I 100% believe he'll go much higher, I'd be shocked if didn't go top-10, and that probably is a mistake.

The Steelers taking Najee was bad on 2 fronts, 1) because he was never an elite prospect (I thought he was a 3rd round caliber guy personally) and 2) because there were better players at more valuable positions.

I would slightly disagree that RB is less valuable than G or LB, with the caveat that it has to be RBs who are major weapons in the passing game. Its the reason I had no problem with the 49ers trading for CMC. Those types are closer to WRs in value in my opinion. The same way TEs are not typically worth as much as WRs, but someone like Kelce sure is.

 

[Faust]

NFL Rumors @nflrums
Bijan Robinson told the Philadelphia Eagles you're not just getting a running back but a game changer.

https://twitter.com/nflrums/status/1649423789271273472?s=21

NFL on ESPN @ESPNNFL
.@mspears96 thinks the Eagles shouldn't pass up the "porterhouse" Bijan Robinson at No. 10

"All year we talked about how ... how in the hell do you stop the Philadelphia Eagles. I think [Bijan Robinson] would make them more unstoppable."

https://twitter.com/espnnfl/status/1648432968980107267?s=21

NFL on ESPN @ESPNNFL
Should Bijan Robinson break the mold of not drafting a RB in the top of the draft?

"I worked in [the Eagles] organization for two years ... and if there's such thing as less than a zero percent chance that it happens, that is the case there in Philadelphia." —@MoveTheSticks

https://twitter.com/espnnfl/status/1649166069745999879?s=21

 

[massraider]

Uggh.

Analytic draft Twitter has just collectively decided that it is OK, after all, to draft Bijan in the first round.

 

[menobrown]

Uggh.

Analytic draft Twitter has just collectively decided that it is OK, after all, to draft Bijan in the first round.

He was always a round one player, it's a matter of should a team draft him when they have a first round graded player at another position that is available? My answer for the most part remains no, or at least not what I would do.

 

[bostonfred]

2023 NFL draft: A running back in Round 1? Why Bijan Robinson is risky

It's behind a paywall but I get ESPN+ for now, so Barnwell's article -- in addition to the Kevin Cole and Jakob Sanderson article and Twitter feed he mentions within the article -- are all must reads. They're about surplus value and how much you lose by taking an RB in the first round. It's a piece that's well thought-out, and uses new numbers to show that RBs are even further deflated in value than we commonly assumed. It's not a fun piece if you back RBs in the NFL (and I do), but it's really worth a read. All three articles/Twitter feeds are worthy of a long look (Barnwell's, Cole's, and Sanderson's). I'm not sure I understand the math or the new statistics; but what they're arguing is meritorious of debate.

I believe there’s a world where both of these statements are true:
1. It’s a mistake in todays NFL to take a RB in the 1st round. In general they have shorter shelf/life at a position with an abundance of options where a smart team can mix and match skill sets to situations.

2. Bijan Robinson is an exception to #1 in that he’s a special talent.

If Barry Sanders, Ladanian Tomlinson, or Jim Brown came out in this draft, one would give serious consideration to taking them in the 1st round. I’m not saying Bijan is Tomlinson, but he’s closer to the greats than he is to the last 4-5 years worth of prospects, so you take that risk with him.

The game has changed quite a bit, but what hasn’t changed is the need to convert 3rd down, short yardage, GL, and to have a versatile back who can be a receiving threat.

Whether a team addresses this with 1 player or multiple is the question.

In the case of a special talent, I believe it’s worth the risk. But maybe that’s why I’m not an NFL GM. (In addition to being a talentless hack, of course)

lol

A few things to discuss here.

1. Let's say Seattle wants Bijan at 1.5. They would not only use that pick to get him, but pay him about 33 million over the next 4 years. For 8 million a year, you can get the top running back on the free agent market most years. The franchise tag for running backs is about ten million. You could trade for Henry, dalvin or ekeler right now and pay them about 10 million a year. In other words, if you prioritize rb and see bijan as a sure thing to produce stud numbers, you have to use the 1.5 pick to get a 2 million a year savings on the position.

2. Certainty is valuable. But the franchise tag at defensive end, defensive tackle or linebacker is about 20 million a year. Quarterback is 32. If Bijan were 100 percent certain to return 2 million a year in savings, and the dt/de/lb was 25 percent likely to return 12 million a year in savings, which one is more valuable?

3. There are currently 31 edge rushers making 8 million a year or more. So even if you're not getting an elite, Tomlinson/ Peterson/ whatever, you're probably getting a guy worth his salary.

4. At running back, peak Derrick Henry got a 4 year, 50 million extension. The top defensive linemen make more than 50 million in two years. The top quarterbacks get that in one. It's easy to imagine Bijan not being great for 4 straight years. Think Trent Richardson bust or saquon injuries. You could end up getting one elite year - worth 2 million in cap savings - and then massively overpaying for a guy for 3 of his 4 other years. If you only get one good year out of a pass rusher you paid 4 years, 32 million for, you're not even mad.

5. It's absurdly hard to get top pass rushers without spending a first round pick on them, and usually an early first. When they become free agents they rarely change teams if they're elite, and when they do it's usually because of their high salary. The top running backs include some barkey/zeke/ Gordon types, but also include Henry (2nd), cook (2nd), ekeler (undrafted), Taylor (2nd) and more.

6. Hall of fame running backs are awesome, but they don't necessarily win. Tomlinson didn't win a superbowl. Neither did Peterson. Or Thurman. Or Barry. Or zeke. Or Henry. Or Barkley. In fact, so you want to know the last time a first round pick at running back won a superbowl? It was Clyde Edwards-Helaire. And he had nothing to do with it.

As a gm I would definitely consider Bijan a first round pick. As a fan I'd be excited to watch him. But he's not a guy I'm excited to draft

 

[Ilov80s]

If Barry Sanders , Ladanian Tomlinson , or Jim Brown came out in this draft, one would give serious consideration to taking them in the 1st round. I’m not saying Bijan is Tomlinson, but he’s closer to the greats than he is to the last 4-5 years worth of prospects, so you take that risk with him.

Bijan is awesome but can we stop pretending like Breece Hall doesn't exist.

 

[Ilov80s]

Bijan

Bijan due to Taylor's ankle issues/surgery. I'd rather have the healthy guy, and ankle injuries worry the ever-living out of me.

Same reason I think Bijan is the RB1 in dynasty over Breece. Injury.

I do not, however, based on college stats and film alone, believe he's better than either of those backs.

When all three are healthy, give me Taylor.

I am so mad Breece hurt his knee. He was going to have have 1800/12 from scrimmage at least...on a crap offense.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I would slightly disagree that RB is less valuable than G or LB, with the caveat that it has to be RBs who are major weapons in the passing game.

From a Wins Above Replacement perspective, OLB & G are more valuable. I’m not arguing you should always take one of those ahead of RB. But in terms of players who have impact above average replacement level, QB, WR, CB, S, TE, DE, DT, LB, G, T, and C have historically been more impactful than RB.

Which frankly kind of sucks. I love RBs. I wish the data was wrong.

 

[Ilov80s]

I would slightly disagree that RB is less valuable than G or LB, with the caveat that it has to be RBs who are major weapons in the passing game.

From a Wins Above Replacement perspective, OLB & G are more valuable. I’m not arguing you should always take one of those ahead of RB. But in terms of players who have impact above average replacement level, QB, WR, CB, S, TE, DE, DT, LB, G, T, and C have historically been more impactful than RB.

Which frankly kind of sucks. I love RBs. I wish the data was wrong.

It won't happen but there should really be a caveat to the CBA to help RBs and LBs. Maybe some kind of tackle and broken tackle bonus?

 

[BobbyLayne]

I would slightly disagree that RB is less valuable than G or LB, with the caveat that it has to be RBs who are major weapons in the passing game.

From a Wins Above Replacement perspective, OLB & G are more valuable. I’m not arguing you should always take one of those ahead of RB. But in terms of players who have impact above average replacement level, QB, WR, CB, S, TE, DE, DT, LB, G, T, and C have historically been more impactful than RB.

Which frankly kind of sucks. I love RBs. I wish the data was wrong.

It won't happen but there should really be a caveat to the CBA to help RBs and LBs. Maybe some kind of tackle and broken tackle bonus?

Jack Campbell about to be a 2nd rounder & I’m not sure there’s a role for him. 15-20 years he would be called the next Jack Lambert / Brian Urlacher with a top half of the first round grade. Now it’s like “Big thumper, eh…well you like a football player, we’ll figure it out. Probably.”

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

2023 NFL draft: A running back in Round 1? Why Bijan Robinson is risky

It's behind a paywall but I get ESPN+ for now, so Barnwell's article -- in addition to the Kevin Cole and Jakob Sanderson article and Twitter feed he mentions within the article -- are all must reads. They're about surplus value and how much you lose by taking an RB in the first round. It's a piece that's well thought-out, and uses new numbers to show that RBs are even further deflated in value than we commonly assumed. It's not a fun piece if you back RBs in the NFL (and I do), but it's really worth a read. All three articles/Twitter feeds are worthy of a long look (Barnwell's, Cole's, and Sanderson's). I'm not sure I understand the math or the new statistics; but what they're arguing is meritorious of debate.

I believe there’s a world where both of these statements are true:
1. It’s a mistake in todays NFL to take a RB in the 1st round. In general they have shorter shelf/life at a position with an abundance of options where a smart team can mix and match skill sets to situations.

2. Bijan Robinson is an exception to #1 in that he’s a special talent.

If Barry Sanders, Ladanian Tomlinson, or Jim Brown came out in this draft, one would give serious consideration to taking them in the 1st round. I’m not saying Bijan is Tomlinson, but he’s closer to the greats than he is to the last 4-5 years worth of prospects, so you take that risk with him.

The game has changed quite a bit, but what hasn’t changed is the need to convert 3rd down, short yardage, GL, and to have a versatile back who can be a receiving threat.

Whether a team addresses this with 1 player or multiple is the question.

In the case of a special talent, I believe it’s worth the risk. But maybe that’s why I’m not an NFL GM. (In addition to being a talentless hack, of course)

lol

A few things to discuss here.

1. Let's say Seattle wants Bijan at 1.5. They would not only use that pick to get him, but pay him about 33 million over the next 4 years. For 8 million a year, you can get the top running back on the free agent market most years. The franchise tag for running backs is about ten million. You could trade for Henry, dalvin or ekeler right now and pay them about 10 million a year. In other words, if you prioritize rb and see bijan as a sure thing to produce stud numbers, you have to use the 1.5 pick to get a 2 million a year savings on the position.

2. Certainty is valuable. But the franchise tag at defensive end, defensive tackle or linebacker is about 20 million a year. Quarterback is 32. If Bijan were 100 percent certain to return 2 million a year in savings, and the dt/de/lb was 25 percent likely to return 12 million a year in savings, which one is more valuable?

3. There are currently 31 edge rushers making 8 million a year or more. So even if you're not getting an elite, Tomlinson/ Peterson/ whatever, you're probably getting a guy worth his salary.

4. At running back, peak Derrick Henry got a 4 year, 50 million extension. The top defensive linemen make more than 50 million in two years. The top quarterbacks get that in one. It's easy to imagine Bijan not being great for 4 straight years. Think Trent Richardson bust or saquon injuries. You could end up getting one elite year - worth 2 million in cap savings - and then massively overpaying for a guy for 3 of his 4 other years. If you only get one good year out of a pass rusher you paid 4 years, 32 million for, you're not even mad.

5. It's absurdly hard to get top pass rushers without spending a first round pick on them, and usually an early first. When they become free agents they rarely change teams if they're elite, and when they do it's usually because of their high salary. The top running backs include some barkey/zeke/ Gordon types, but also include Henry (2nd), cook (2nd), ekeler (undrafted), Taylor (2nd) and more.

6. Hall of fame running backs are awesome, but they don't necessarily win. Tomlinson didn't win a superbowl. Neither did Peterson. Or Thurman. Or Barry. Or zeke. Or Henry. Or Barkley. In fact, so you want to know the last time a first round pick at running back won a superbowl? It was Clyde Edwards-Helaire. And he had nothing to do with it.

As a gm I would definitely consider Bijan a first round pick. As a fan I'd be excited to watch him. But he's not a guy I'm excited to draft

I certainly wouldn’t advocate anyone taking Bijan over an elite pass rusher and have said as much more than once.

My feeling is he goes in the 17-22 range, once all the premium edge rushers, DBs, and OL are off the board, and possibly behind the 1st 2 receivers.

I agree with all of your points otherwise.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Bijan

Bijan due to Taylor's ankle issues/surgery. I'd rather have the healthy guy, and ankle injuries worry the ever-living out of me.

Same reason I think Bijan is the RB1 in dynasty over Breece. Injury.

I do not, however, based on college stats and film alone, believe he's better than either of those backs.

When all three are healthy, give me Taylor.

I am so mad Breece hurt his knee. He was going to have have 1800/12 from scrimmage at least...on a crap offense.

As a shareholder I couldn’t agree more.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If Barry Sanders , Ladanian Tomlinson , or Jim Brown came out in this draft, one would give serious consideration to taking them in the 1st round. I’m not saying Bijan is Tomlinson, but he’s closer to the greats than he is to the last 4-5 years worth of prospects, so you take that risk with him.

Bijan is awesome but can we stop pretending like Breece Hall doesn't exist.

Hall is a very good RB. He exists. He thinks therefor he am? Not sure what kind of existential crisis is going on here.

 

[Ilov80s]

If Barry Sanders , Ladanian Tomlinson , or Jim Brown came out in this draft, one would give serious consideration to taking them in the 1st round. I’m not saying Bijan is Tomlinson, but he’s closer to the greats than he is to the last 4-5 years worth of prospects, so you take that risk with him.

Bijan is awesome but can we stop pretending like Breece Hall doesn't exist.

Hall is a very good RB. He exists. He thinks therefor he am? Not sure what kind of existential crisis is going on here.

You said Bijan was closer to Barry than he is to Breece!

 

[travdogg]

Bijan

Bijan due to Taylor's ankle issues/surgery. I'd rather have the healthy guy, and ankle injuries worry the ever-living out of me.

Same reason I think Bijan is the RB1 in dynasty over Breece. Injury.

I do not, however, based on college stats and film alone, believe he's better than either of those backs.

When all three are healthy, give me Taylor.

I am so mad Breece hurt his knee. He was going to have have 1800/12 from scrimmage at least...on a crap offense.

Super hot take: I think Breece Hall getting hurt was maybe the best thing that could have happened to him dynasty value wise.

I think had he stayed healthy teams would have done a much better job shutting him down as the year went on, him getting hurt when he was peaking, I think makes it seem like he was gonna be better than he was. I don't think he was any better than Kenneth Walker, Walker just had to deal with defensive adjustments, and wearing down a bit. If he'd gotten hurt after the Chargers game, I wonder if the narrative would be higher for him?

Personally, I'd take Bijan over Taylor or Hall, injuries or not. I just think he's a bigger talent.

 

[Ilov80s]

Bijan

Bijan due to Taylor's ankle issues/surgery. I'd rather have the healthy guy, and ankle injuries worry the ever-living out of me.

Same reason I think Bijan is the RB1 in dynasty over Breece. Injury.

I do not, however, based on college stats and film alone, believe he's better than either of those backs.

When all three are healthy, give me Taylor.

I am so mad Breece hurt his knee. He was going to have have 1800/12 from scrimmage at least...on a crap offense.

Super hot take: I think Breece Hall getting hurt was maybe the best thing that could have happened to him dynasty value wise.

I think had he stayed healthy teams would have done a much better job shutting him down as the year went on, him getting hurt when he was peaking, I think makes it seem like he was gonna be better than he was. I don't think he was any better than Kenneth Walker, Walker just had to deal with defensive adjustments, and wearing down a bit. If he'd gotten hurt after the Chargers game, I wonder if the narrative would be higher for him?

Personally, I'd take Bijan over Taylor or Hall, injuries or not. I just think he's a bigger talent.

I am glad you recognize that you could boil nickel with this take.

 

[massraider]

I expect there are a couple teams who are very comfortable with a list of guys in the first, and if they miss out on them, they will happily pivot to a top 5 talent in the draft.

This devaluing of the position has way over corrected. People are hoping their team takes the 4th cornerback over an insane talent because positional value.

There are a lot of ways to build a winning team, but in the playoffs, eventually you need your studs to make big plays. Bijan can be a stud. And the best backs are still drafted day 1 and 2

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If Barry Sanders , Ladanian Tomlinson , or Jim Brown came out in this draft, one would give serious consideration to taking them in the 1st round. I’m not saying Bijan is Tomlinson, but he’s closer to the greats than he is to the last 4-5 years worth of prospects, so you take that risk with him.

Bijan is awesome but can we stop pretending like Breece Hall doesn't exist.

Hall is a very good RB. He exists. He thinks therefor he am? Not sure what kind of existential crisis is going on here.

You said Bijan was closer to Barry than he is to Breece!

Oh. Ok, well, that’s just like, my opinion, man.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I expect there are a couple teams who are very comfortable with a list of guys in the first, and if they miss out on them, they will happily pivot to a top 5 talent in the draft.

This devaluing of the position has way over corrected. People are hoping their team takes the 4th cornerback over an insane talent because positional value.

There are a lot of ways to build a winning team, but in the playoffs, eventually you need your studs to make big plays. Bijan can be a stud. And the best backs are still drafted day 1 and 2

Exactly this.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I expect there are a couple teams who are very comfortable with a list of guys in the first, and if they miss out on them, they will happily pivot to a top 5 talent in the draft.

This devaluing of the position has way over corrected. People are hoping their team takes the 4th cornerback over an insane talent because positional value.

There are a lot of ways to build a winning team, but in the playoffs, eventually you need your studs to make big plays. Bijan can be a stud. And the best backs are still drafted day 1 and 2

Exactly this.

Positional value aside, the consensus two highest grades in this draft should be Jalen Carter and Bijan Robinson

 

[Grahamburn]

FMIA: Snyder’s Long Goodbye, and the First-Round Case for Bijan Robinson

Excerpts:

All the anti-Bijan-Robinson-in-the-first-round folks, hear this: There’s this reticence to pick a running back in the first round because he might not be around for a second contract. Fact is, most first-round picks don’t sign second contracts. Per overthecap.com, 31 percent of first-round picks from 2011-’14 signed second contracts with teams, and well under half the players from 2011 to 2019 (the last year we’d be able to figure if first-rounders got second contracts) re-signed.

One other Bijanism. His college coach, Steve Sarkisian, told me Robinson could be a slot receiver, regularly, in the NFL. I’ve got the clip to convince you. “I probably made a couple of receivers on our team mad last season,” Sarkisian said, “but he had the best hands on our team.”

The Case for Bijan​

I seem to be in the minority on this: I don’t think teams, particularly teams that are in contention and would be significantly improved with a great offensive weapon, should be overly concerned with whether a rookie will be around long enough to sign a second contract. That’s partially because the majority of first-round picks do not sign second contracts with teams anyway. From 2011 to 2014, in fact, per overthecap.com, only 38 percent of the top 10 picks signed second deals with teams, and just one-third of those picked 11 through 20 re-signed with teams.

That brings me to Robinson, the talented Texas back. He’s a great runner, first. But watch this clip (this link is set to begin right at 3:00, on the exact play I want you to see) of a deep route run out of the slot by Robinson to see his versatility and hands—and to see why his college coach, Steve Sarkisian, thinks Robinson could be a full-time receiver if that’s how a team wanted to use him.

My point: If you only had Robinson for five years—four years plus exercising the fifth-year option as a first-round pick—and he played behind the kind of offensive line in, say, Philadelphia, are you telling me he wouldn’t be worth the pick? Not to fixate on Philly, but two of the last four top picks (Jalen Reagor, Andre Dillard) didn’t work out anyway. The average first-contract cap number for Robinson in Philadelphia would be $5.5 million. But let’s not stick to Philly. Go to mid-round, and pick 18, where Detroit would certainly be in contention to draft Robinson. His cap number in the first four years as the 18th pick: $2.8 million, $3.5 million, $4.2 million, $4.8 million … between 1 and 3 percent of your cap each year.

I asked Sarkisian if he thought Robinson was an exception to the rule about taking running backs high in the draft. “I definitely think he is,” he said. “Bijan is not your typical first- or second-down back. He’s not your typical third-down back. He is an every-down back who can run between the tackles, can make people miss on the perimeter, is extremely difficult to get on the ground in space, and can run routes like receivers. He can catch the ball like a receiver. I think the game of the NFL is really fit for his skill set, maybe to some degree a little better than college quite frankly.”

I asked him which teams have been sniffing around Robinson in pre-draft phone calls. “It’s so hard to gauge because, for instance, I was at Alabama, and I recruited Bryce Young and coached him for a year, so there are questions about Alabama guys,” Sarkisian said. “But you gotta remember: Lots of teams never let you know what they’re thinking. I was with Al Davis in Oakland for a year, and he never called the people he knew he was going to draft.”

And how’d that work out for old Al?!

 

[Grahamburn]

Want the Bucs to get this guy. I know it’s not the best from a team building perspective but who cares football should be fun and he’d be a blast to watch. And with Evans and Godwin should make for an excellent offense if they can get decent QB play.

Not that this applies to Bijan necessarily, but when was the last time one of these “generational RBs” paid off in the win department?

Revisionist history with Saquon, Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette.. Losses, injuries, hold outs, big contracts, released, traded.

The argument for RB early can really only be made for a team with an open 3-year championship window. Get over the hump luxury. Eagles. Bills.

He’d be wasted on the Bucs. Fun, sure. But we got a taste of what consistent winning feels like and I’d rather not go back to Cadillac Williams over Aaron Rodgers kinds of decisions.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Bijan

Bijan due to Taylor's ankle issues/surgery. I'd rather have the healthy guy, and ankle injuries worry the ever-living out of me.

Same reason I think Bijan is the RB1 in dynasty over Breece. Injury.

I do not, however, based on college stats and film alone, believe he's better than either of those backs.

When all three are healthy, give me Taylor.

I am so mad Breece hurt his knee. He was going to have have 1800/12 from scrimmage at least...on a crap offense.

Super hot take: I think Breece Hall getting hurt was maybe the best thing that could have happened to him dynasty value wise.

I think had he stayed healthy teams would have done a much better job shutting him down as the year went on, him getting hurt when he was peaking, I think makes it seem like he was gonna be better than he was. I don't think he was any better than Kenneth Walker, Walker just had to deal with defensive adjustments, and wearing down a bit. If he'd gotten hurt after the Chargers game, I wonder if the narrative would be higher for him?

Personally, I'd take Bijan over Taylor or Hall, injuries or not. I just think he's a bigger talent.

I am glad you recognize that you could boil nickel with this take.

What do you mean? Every knows nothing spikes a RBs value like a good ACL tear.

 

[rockaction]

What do you mean? Every knows nothing spikes a RBs value like a good ACL tear.

I roster him. That's a frustrating take to read. I'll give it this: Travdogg is certainly being counterintuitive. Other than that, I don't have much to say about it.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

What do you mean? Every knows nothing spikes a RBs value like a good ACL tear.

I roster him. That's a frustrating take to read. I'll give it this: Travdogg is certainly being counterintuitive. Other than that, I don't have much to say about it.

I hope Bijan blows out his knee in Week 4 - so I can trade him for an even bigger haul next off-season.

 

[Capella]

He’d be wasted on the Bucs. Fun, sure. But we got a taste of what consistent winning feels like and I’d rather not go back to Cadillac Williams over Aaron Rodgers kinds of decisions

Well they are picking at 19 this year, not 5. But I agree, they should take an Aaron Rodgers talent if he’s there.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What do you mean? Every knows nothing spikes a RBs value like a good ACL tear.

I roster him. That's a frustrating take to read. I'll give it this: Travdogg is certainly being counterintuitive. Other than that, I don't have much to say about it.

I hope Bijan blows out his knee in Week 4 - so I can trade him for an even bigger haul next off-season.

Please do not put this juju in the world.

 

[Grahamburn]

He’d be wasted on the Bucs. Fun, sure. But we got a taste of what consistent winning feels like and I’d rather not go back to Cadillac Williams over Aaron Rodgers kinds of decisions

Well they are picking at 19 this year, not 5. But I agree, they should take an Aaron Rodgers talent if he’s there.

And the logic applies to so many other positions as well outside of RB.

 

[rockaction]

I really want to ask the analytics guys a question, though. How circular is the logic that says that since a position is more valuable, you draft that position earlier to control its costs? What if your current valuations are wrong, and RBs really are responsible for wins that aren't attributed to them? Football is a game that is difficult to quantify. Can we be so sure in the methods that we devalue the RB position based on newer stats like WAR (football WAR, not baseball WAR) and other stats like it?

How can we be sure that we haven't really just botched the initial valuation and capital outlay?

Food for thought, anyway.

 

[Amused to Death]

McShay: 'Dallas is obsessed' with drafting RB; trading up for Bijan Robinson 'wouldn't shock me'

"anyone claiming they know what a team might do is probably getting played." - Eagles GM Howie Roseman

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I really want to ask the analytics guys a question, though. How circular is the logic that says that since a position is more valuable, you draft that position earlier to control its costs? What if your current valuations are wrong, and RBs really are responsible for wins that aren't attributed to them? Football is a game that is difficult to quantify. Can we be so sure in the methods that we devalue the RB position based on newer stats like WAR (football WAR, not baseball WAR) and other stats like it?

How can we be sure that we haven't really just botched the initial valuation and capital outlay?

Food for thought, anyway.

Sort of what I was getting at earlier - RB values are down because everyone agreed it’s a volatile position so teams don’t take RB early so RB values are down.

But at the same time, Bijan isn’t getting out of the 1st round, and he’s pretty universally considered one of the best 5 players in this draft.

And yes - it’s valuable to have elite pass rushers. No argument. And WAR or VORP or whatever metrics people want to use to justify it look good on paper, but in recent memory we’ve seen teams that were unable to control the clock with a run game get knocked out of the playoffs (happened to the Bills most recently, IIRC.

Meanwhile, the Eagles were unable to get pressure on Mahomes due to the field conditions in the SB. What some assumed to be a low scoring game due to great defenses/pass rush was a 38-35 shootout.

Having that elite bell cow back can be just as, if not more valuable than any other position. It’s the context that matters.

Just more food for thought.

To your point, I agree there’s quite a bit of circular reasoning on both sides of the “should a RB be taken early” discussion.

Teams are potentially willing to spend a top 10 pick on a Levis or ARich, but not on Bijan? Bijan’s floor is just so much higher than those guys. I understand drafting for ceiling, but at some point elite is elite.

As someone earlier said - you need weapons. Bijan is arguably the best offensive weapon in the 2023 draft.

 

[rockaction]

I still can't see taking an RB that early, though. Not given the current market. I'm just wondering when the market corrects. Can't keep trotting out converted linebackers at RB and expecting them to be pro-ready. Or can you, Allgeier and Javonte Williams? (Allgeier was actually a RB before linebacking then switched back to RB, best I can suss out.)

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I still can't see taking an RB that early, though. Not given the current market. I'm just wondering when the market corrects. Can't keep trotting out converted linebackers at RB and expecting them to be pro-ready. Or can you, Allgeier and Javonte Williams? (Allgeier was actually a RB before linebacking then switched back to RB, best I can suss out.)

I agree - I wouldn’t take a RB top 5, or even top 10.

But I could see where the Eagles might at 10, given their otherwise complete roster.

I guess they have to ask themselves if Penny/Gainwell can keep a Mahomes off the field in the next SB, or if they need Bijan to play ball control.

It’s a fascinating situation - is the 3rd or 4th best pass rusher more valuable to the Eagles (or any competitive team) than a Bijan.

I guess we’ll find out in about 5 days?

ETA: Eagles probably should take a CB since they need one, and there should be elite options on the board.

 

[travdogg]

What do you mean? Every knows nothing spikes a RBs value like a good ACL tear.

I roster him. That's a frustrating take to read. I'll give it this: Travdogg is certainly being counterintuitive. Other than that, I don't have much to say about it.

I think the subtext was lost on what I was saying. Obviously tearing an ACL isn't a good thing, but it hasn't seemed to hurt his fantasy value one bit, people are still talking about him as the #1 overall dynasty RB. I think that's because of what he was doing when he got hurt, which was unsustainable in my opinion, but its the last memory people have of him. that's why I brought up if Walker had gotten hurt after the Chargers game, if he had, the book on him, would be unstoppable big play machine who suffered an unfortunate injury.

Personally, I think Walker>Hall, and I think Bijan>either. I don't really see that as controversial. I just phrased it in that hot take way, because it really doesn't seem like Hall's trade value has suffered at all, and that feels wrong to me.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think the subtext was lost on what I was saying

No, it wasn’t. Can you at least admit that while going out on a “high note” may create some positive perception bias, but that has to at least be offset by him suffering an ACL tear?
I also think most rated Hall and Walker close together as prospects and still do now after their rookie seasons. Both looked very good.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Personally, I think Walker>Hall, and I think Bijan>either. I don't really see that as controversial

I don’t think anyone thinks this part is controversial. I guess that’s the disconnect.

 

[rockaction]

I don’t think anyone thinks this part is controversial. I guess that’s the disconnect.

I don't, but there was an awful lot of Breece love after that TD in Denver. I can see where Travdogg is coming from, but I just think that Hall wouldn't have been slowed and his value would be greater than or equal to Bijan's at this point.

And maybe that's what Travdogg is reacting to. People that would view it that way, not people like us who can totally see the Bijan>Walker>Hall ranking as something reasonable people can disagree upon.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Shooting up boards this weekend, top ten is on the table. People went from saying Detroit might take him at 18 to saying they’ll have to move up with their 2nd first rounder to get him.

Offense - 8th
Defense - 29th

Let’s not do that

 

[rockaction]

Should really crosspost from Travdogg's thread here. I'll go do it.

Hat tip: Obie Wan bringing data fire

In honor of my friends who work in higher ed. I feel it’s time for a full refresher on the "Runningbacks Don't Matter 101" course as teams ready for their next big exam next week. The data is overwhelming.

https://twitter.com/JoeyIckes/status/1649459088428859413

The studies on the running game go back to as early as 2011 when Brian Burke clarified just how inefficient running the ball was compared to passing.

https://slate.com/culture/2011/11/nfl-offense-running-for-three-yards-is-like-going-backwards.html

Then in 2014 Dr. Ed Feng looked at 10 years of data that showed that rushing efficiency contributed to only ~4.4% of the variance in wins, vs the passing game contributing ~62%

https://thepowerrank.com/2014/01/10/which-nfl-teams-make-and-win-in-the-playoffs/

Around 2017-2018 the data really cranked up on RBs themselves.

Josh Hermsmeyer looked at 10 years of rushing data, and found that two factors accounted for 96%(!) of rushing gains... Those two factors?

Field position, and # of defenders in the box...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...king-success-isnt-the-linemen-its-sean-mcvay/

Then Eric and George from PFF added to that study, finding that in addition to Josh's two factors, the actual run concept on a play moves the needle in rushing EPA more than the quality (determined by PFF grade) of the actual ball carrier.

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-are-nf...-replaceable-the-story-of-the-2018-nfl-season

Add that to the study by Ben Baldwin showing that RBs drafted in the top-20 are no better than the league average on a yards per carry basis. There’s also a nugget in here about RBs having the highest 1st rd bust rate of all offensive positions

Don’t do it. Like, ever.

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2018/2/2...uon-barkley-leonard-fournette-ezekiel-elliott

Since we know with these studies (and others) that running backs have very little influence on the success of a running game, and that running game success has little impact on winning games, the argument moves to the passing game.

Does a RB matter if he can be a pass catcher?

Well, in this study, Eric Eager (again) shows that passes thrown to RBs are the less efficient, less valuable, and less stable year over year, than targets to any other position.

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-pff-forecast-examines-value-of-coverage-and-receiving

• Ben Baldwin confirmed that study in this one, where his data showed that targets to RBs have about 1/4 of the EPA per play of targets to TE, and even less vs targets to WR, and a lower success rate (positive EPA) than targets to TE or WRs.
• The best catchers of the football are the players who play positions primarily geared toward, well, catching the football.

https://theathletic.com/1143546/201...-latest-nfl-craze-that-doesnt-make-any-sense/

The next question would be, what if a RB can line up as a wide receiver or in the slot on some plays. Does that change the equation?

Back to Eric and George at PFF... RBs lined up in the slot were far less efficient than WRs and TEs lined up in the slot.

What's the true value of a slot weapon in today's NFL market

PFF Data Scientists Dr. Eric Eager & George Chahrouri take a deeper look at how valuable a weapon from the slot is for NFL offenses, and how pivotal a slot receiver is to offensive success.

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-examining-the-value-of-offensive-slot-weapons

So if the running game itself doesn't help you win, the RB doesn't impact the running game, and regularly throwing to a RB is a losing proposition, maybe there are secondary benefits?

Maybe having a good RB & a good running game helps the play action game?

Well our friend Ben found that "teams don't need to run often -- or run well -- to set up play-action. Play-action works for teams that run frequently, infrequently, well, or poorly"

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/further-research-play-action-passing

Ok so then maybe a good running back and a good running game keeps the defense rested?

Well FBO did the work & found that "the main - and perhaps only - channel through which an offense can help a defense on a per-drive basis is through field position."

Defense and Rest Time

Do defenses really wear out over the course of a game? Do defenses benefit from long drives that give them more time to rest on the sideline? Guest columnist Ben Baldwin investigates.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/defense-and-rest-time

So in review of our review... Running backs don't help the running game, they're inherently inefficient in the passing game compared to WR's and TEs. They don't improve play action effectiveness, and they don't help your defense...

Additionally, drafting RBs high is not "safer" than other positions, and does not correlate to better production from the RB position.

You just can't legitimately justify the idea of spending premium (picks or $$) on the running back position, with any quantifiable measures.

 

[BobbyLayne]

You should never say never, unless the discussion is should we take an RB in the 1st. A HoF RB has less impact (over replacement level) than every position except punter and kicker.

 

[rockaction]

You should never say never, unless the discussion is should we take an RB in the 1st.

I'm crying, but the evidence seems to be in, and it seems to really support this declaration.

I just...I find it a little hard to believe, but I thought flat bats through contact in the zone and line drives were the bees knees until they figured out about looping swings and launch angles.

 

[BobbyLayne]

You should never say never, unless the discussion is should we take an RB in the 1st.

I'm crying, but the evidence seems to be in, and it seems to really support this declaration.

I just...I find it a little hard to believe, but I thought flat bats through contact in the zone and line drives were the bees knees until they figured out about looping swings and launch angles.

IKR - I love RBs and 19 years of FF + Billy & Barry conditioned me to believe it's such a fun position to watch. I'm not happy with what the data is telling me.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Want the Bucs to get this guy. I know it’s not the best from a team building perspective but who cares football should be fun and he’d be a blast to watch. And with Evans and Godwin should make for an excellent offense if they can get decent QB play.

Not that this applies to Bijan necessarily, but when was the last time one of these “generational RBs” paid off in the win department?

Revisionist history with Saquon, Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette.. Losses, injuries, hold outs, big contracts, released, traded.

The argument for RB early can really only be made for a team with an open 3-year championship window. Get over the hump luxury. Eagles. Bills.

He’d be wasted on the Bucs. Fun, sure. But we got a taste of what consistent winning feels like and I’d rather not go back to Cadillac Williams over Aaron Rodgers kinds of decisions.

You can really say this about any position other than QB. No single player can turn around a bad team other than a great QB. So beyond that, there's really a lot of outside forces at play as to whether a bad team with a high non-QB pick ends up turning it around eventually or not, but any non-QB is merely going to be a small piece of that.

I get the argument about shorter shelf life and a shorter prime, but a great RB can have just as large an effect on a team as a great OT or CB or WR or basically any non-QB position other than maybe elite pass rusher (though plenty of elite pass rushers on bad teams over the years as well).

 

[Faust]

Roob's Obs: Why I'm convinced it's Bijan in the 1st round

Cowboys Draft Bijan Robinson? 'He's Marshall Faulk!' - Keyshawn Johnson on Longhorns RB

Quandre Diggs calls Bijan Robinson the best player in the 2023 NFL draft

Is Bijan Robinson 'unique player' Eagles covet with No. 10 pick? Howie Roseman's intriguing answer opens door

Bijan Robinson Works Out with Cowboys' Micah Parsons - VIDEO: NFL Draft Tracker

 

[ghostguy123]

He's definitely going in the first round. Even if he has a gas mask bong video

 

[travdogg]

You should never say never, unless the discussion is should we take an RB in the 1st. A HoF RB has less impact (over replacement level) than every position except punter and kicker.

Even with that evidence, I'm gonna disagree about taking a RB in the first round. Its not the ideal position to take, but I think exceptions exist (there shouldn't have been a single 1st round RB between Barkley and Bijan imo) and passing on a great RB, doesn't mean you are adding a great (or even good) player elsewhere.

 

[BobbyLayne]

You should never say never, unless the discussion is should we take an RB in the 1st. A HoF RB has less impact (over replacement level) than every position except punter and kicker.

Even with that evidence, I'm gonna disagree about taking a RB in the first round. Its not the ideal position to take, but I think exceptions exist (there shouldn't have been a single 1st round RB between Barkley and Bijan imo) and passing on a great RB, doesn't mean you are adding a great (or even good) player elsewhere.

Correct. It’s just that result would have been the same if you took an average RB in the 3rd or 4th (in terms of WAR.)

Not arguing with ya, I’m cognizant he’s a great player - probably the 2nd best player in the entire draft. It sucks that Edge8 or OG2 is more valuable. I like RBs.