It's hard not to feel that all the people considering Atlanta a realistic landing spot are very hopeful 1.01 owners in dynasty lol (and blurb writers looking for clicks). It makes 0 sense to me.
It’s based on Vegas making them the odds on favorites.
Maybe don’t throw 1.01 shareholders or blurb writers under the bus - they’re just reading the Vegas tea leaves.
No shade here, sorry if it came across like that. Believe me, I also hope for many things to happen in this draft that will benefit both my real and fake football teams. And many of them are even more unlikely to happen/ similarly don't make a lot of sense.
It just feels an overly simplistic and, for the parties mentioned at least, self-serving way to view the situation. Especially in the face of the actual facts of the situation. Drawing conclusions based on Vegas odds feels suspect for a litany of reasons. One example would be articles like this lol:
Will Levis' NFL draft odds soar after Reddit post links QB to Panthers
But, probably the biggest one is using Vegas odds as a basis for the Bijan to Atlanta argument doesn't take into consideration that odds are only partially based on the likelihood of a certain outcome. Sorry if I'm explaining a dynamic you already understand, but it's relevant to this conversation. A large factor that impacts odds shifting are where money is placed. Oversimplified: the more public money gets put on the Falcons to take Bijan at 1.08, the more Vegas will lower the odds. This doesn't necessarily mean they view it as more likely to happen now; it's just them cushioning the financial impact they will endure should that happen. The ultimate goal of a sports book is really to have an equal amount of money on both sides of every bet, as that's how the recognize the most (and safest) gains. So in some ways I think it's the tail wagging the dog here: where a bad public take gains steam, odds adjust to compensate for the financial impact, and then that adjustment is used out of context to further reinforce the initial bad take. Least that's how I'm reading it on this one.