What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (2 Viewers)

he's going in the top 10. either by a trade-up, or to the Eagles, the Bears, Lions, texans, or falcons. I could see NE moving up to top 10 to get him.
he's another Barkley, another sure handed WR from the backfield, a beast to bring down can't miss prospect like Manning was to the QB ranks.
this guy is a better zeke elliott coming out of college. I'd also think the Bills are a dark horse to trade up here. imagine that guy on that team.
I agree with your comments on the talent.

I’m skeptical he’s a top 10 pick.

I’m thrilled that we’re just a few days away from finding out. :pickle:
 
For all the whinging and whining about positional need, I would love to see a running QB with a premier running back
In real football this is it. Philly would be very interesting to watch.
I believe every Eagles fan who tells me they won't take him. I do think he would help them win a title in the next few years more than any other guy they might take with their pick.
I'll be the contrarian. There are some narratives out there about the Eagles' thinking on RB's that I think are incorrect.
  1. They don't draft RB's early. This is technically true, however, they've shown that they value the position by taking Shady in the 2nd and Miles in the second. Also, its well known that they tried very hard to trade up to the top of the second round to grab Dalvin Cook and that year, there were rumors that if McCaffery dropped to them at 14 they would have taken him. There were also rumors last year that were very much in the convo for trading for McCaffery.
  2. Sirriani doesn't do the bell cow thing with RBs. I don't know why this is a thing. Last year Miles carried the ball 259 times while Scott and Gainwell split an additional 100 rushes. FWIW they were blowing teams out at the end of the year, otherwise I think Miles would have gotten closer to 300. In '21 Miles was hurt, so I'd call that an outlier year. I think Sirriani wants a 3-down back and no one will convince me that they think Penny is that guy, nor is Gainwell. They don't possess a guy currently that fits that role. Bijan definitely would.
Beyond the above, the Eagles lost the Super Bowl last year because their offense disappeared in the second half. They are acutely aware that defense does not win championships in today's NFL. To go punch for punch against Mahomes, Burrow, Allen you need to have a monster offense. They have monster talent at QB, WR, TE and an elite O-line. Adding Bijan would arguably make the Eagles offense the best in the league.

Drafting a RB at 10 (or trading back to like 15) and taking him is definitely a splurge, but the Eagles don't have a ton of dire needs. Most years I would doubt them drafting him, but this year I think they are looking at it as win-now mode. I think they'll take him. At 10 he's BPA.
 
Next Gen Stats @NextGenStats
Texas running back Bijan Robinson earned the highest overall draft score of any prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft (96).

Will Robinson be the first running back selected in the first 20 picks of the NFL Draft since Saquon Barkley was picked second overall in 2018?

Next Gen Stats @NextGenStats
Bijan Robinson is the only running back over the last two decades to earn a max-99 production score in the NGS Draft model.

@Bijan5Robinson | @TexasFootball
 

ESPN's Dan Graziano believes the Ravens could trade up and take Texas RB Bijan Robinson in the 2023 NFL Draft.​

If Robinson slides outside the top-ten picks on Thursday night, Graziano said he would watch the Ravens as "a possibility to move up for him. Baltimore is focused on adding playmakers in an attempt to show Lamar Jackson it's serious about bringing him back and building a better offense around him." There remains a possibility that Jahmyr Gibbs, not Robinson, will be the first running back taken on Thursday -- a somewhat stunning development that could send Robinson well down the draft board. It would be a curious use of first round draft capital for Baltimore after J.K. Dobbins exploded for 397 rushing yards in the 2022 season's final month (7.1 yards per carry). Wherever Robinson lands, he'll likely be a top-10 fantasy pick in 2023 redraft leagues.
RELATED:
SOURCE: ESPN.com
Apr 26, 2023, 9:18 AM ET
 

ESPN's Dan Graziano believes the Ravens could trade up and take Texas RB Bijan Robinson in the 2023 NFL Draft.​

If Robinson slides outside the top-ten picks on Thursday night, Graziano said he would watch the Ravens as "a possibility to move up for him. Baltimore is focused on adding playmakers in an attempt to show Lamar Jackson it's serious about bringing him back and building a better offense around him." There remains a possibility that Jahmyr Gibbs, not Robinson, will be the first running back taken on Thursday -- a somewhat stunning development that could send Robinson well down the draft board. It would be a curious use of first round draft capital for Baltimore after J.K. Dobbins exploded for 397 rushing yards in the 2022 season's final month (7.1 yards per carry). Wherever Robinson lands, he'll likely be a top-10 fantasy pick in 2023 redraft leagues.
RELATED:
SOURCE: ESPN.com
Apr 26, 2023, 9:18 AM ET
I would hate this so much.

I know FF writers like the landing spot. BAL is a mess.
 
It's hard not to feel that all the people considering Atlanta a realistic landing spot are very hopeful 1.01 owners in dynasty lol (and blurb writers looking for clicks). It makes 0 sense to me. They have needs all over the place, and some of their most dire needs are at the positions they will be in a prime spot to address at 1.08; namely pass rusher and CB. If Wilson or Carter fall they seem like no-brainer picks, and wouldn't be super surprised if they reached for VanNess. Plenty of top CBs there they could take their favorite of the bunch. Heck, I could see a case for another swing on QB if one falls, or even JSN seeing as they have no real WR behind London (30 yr old new to the team Mack Hollins as your WR2... woof). Meanwhile, they actually hit on a RB in the fifth round last year who showed up and came to play. Found money. They could certainly use RB depth, but again, this draft is perfect for them to do that at a value in the 3rd round or so. Not saying they couldn't make a bad decision and take Bijan, but it legit makes 0 sense looking at their current roster needs and what will be available for them in the draft. At least the Eagles taking him can be sold as a luxury pick; but the Falcons taking Bijan at 8 to me would be almost like GB taking Love in 2019 over Higgins/Pittman.
 
It's hard not to feel that all the people considering Atlanta a realistic landing spot are very hopeful 1.01 owners in dynasty lol (and blurb writers looking for clicks). It makes 0 sense to me.
It’s based on Vegas making them the odds on favorites.

Maybe don’t throw 1.01 shareholders or blurb writers under the bus - they’re just reading the Vegas tea leaves.
 

ESPN's Dan Graziano believes the Ravens could trade up and take Texas RB Bijan Robinson in the 2023 NFL Draft.​

If Robinson slides outside the top-ten picks on Thursday night, Graziano said he would watch the Ravens as "a possibility to move up for him. Baltimore is focused on adding playmakers in an attempt to show Lamar Jackson it's serious about bringing him back and building a better offense around him." There remains a possibility that Jahmyr Gibbs, not Robinson, will be the first running back taken on Thursday -- a somewhat stunning development that could send Robinson well down the draft board. It would be a curious use of first round draft capital for Baltimore after J.K. Dobbins exploded for 397 rushing yards in the 2022 season's final month (7.1 yards per carry). Wherever Robinson lands, he'll likely be a top-10 fantasy pick in 2023 redraft leagues.
RELATED:
SOURCE: ESPN.com
Apr 26, 2023, 9:18 AM ET
I would hate this so much.

I know FF writers like the landing spot. BAL is a mess.
Agreed. Not a fan.

Also what the hell does this mean: "There remains a possibility that Jahmyr Gibbs, not Robinson, will be the first running back taken on Thursday -- a somewhat stunning development that could send Robinson well down the draft board." Gibbs could go before Robinson. That would be shocking, but there are always a couple really surprising picks. But why would Gibbs going first "send Robinson well down the draft board"?
 
Also what the hell does this mean: "There remains a possibility that Jahmyr Gibbs, not Robinson, will be the first running back taken on Thursday -- a somewhat stunning development that could send Robinson well down the draft board." Gibbs could go before Robinson. That would be shocking, but there are always a couple really surprising picks. But why would Gibbs going first "send Robinson well down the draft board"?
Speculative nonsensical word salad?
 
It's hard not to feel that all the people considering Atlanta a realistic landing spot are very hopeful 1.01 owners in dynasty lol (and blurb writers looking for clicks). It makes 0 sense to me.
It’s based on Vegas making them the odds on favorites.

Maybe don’t throw 1.01 shareholders or blurb writers under the bus - they’re just reading the Vegas tea leaves.

No shade here, sorry if it came across like that. Believe me, I also hope for many things to happen in this draft that will benefit both my real and fake football teams. And many of them are even more unlikely to happen/ similarly don't make a lot of sense.

It just feels an overly simplistic and, for the parties mentioned at least, self-serving way to view the situation. Especially in the face of the actual facts of the situation. Drawing conclusions based on Vegas odds feels suspect for a litany of reasons. One example would be articles like this lol:

Will Levis' NFL draft odds soar after Reddit post links QB to Panthers

But, probably the biggest one is using Vegas odds as a basis for the Bijan to Atlanta argument doesn't take into consideration that odds are only partially based on the likelihood of a certain outcome. Sorry if I'm explaining a dynamic you already understand, but it's relevant to this conversation. A large factor that impacts odds shifting are where money is placed. Oversimplified: the more public money gets put on the Falcons to take Bijan at 1.08, the more Vegas will lower the odds. This doesn't necessarily mean they view it as more likely to happen now; it's just them cushioning the financial impact they will endure should that happen. The ultimate goal of a sports book is really to have an equal amount of money on both sides of every bet, as that's how the recognize the most (and safest) gains. So in some ways I think it's the tail wagging the dog here: where a bad public take gains steam, odds adjust to compensate for the financial impact, and then that adjustment is used out of context to further reinforce the initial bad take. Least that's how I'm reading it on this one.
 
It's hard not to feel that all the people considering Atlanta a realistic landing spot are very hopeful 1.01 owners in dynasty lol (and blurb writers looking for clicks). It makes 0 sense to me.
It’s based on Vegas making them the odds on favorites.

Maybe don’t throw 1.01 shareholders or blurb writers under the bus - they’re just reading the Vegas tea leaves.

No shade here, sorry if it came across like that. Believe me, I also hope for many things to happen in this draft that will benefit both my real and fake football teams. And many of them are even more unlikely to happen/ similarly don't make a lot of sense.

It just feels an overly simplistic and, for the parties mentioned at least, self-serving way to view the situation. Especially in the face of the actual facts of the situation. Drawing conclusions based on Vegas odds feels suspect for a litany of reasons. One example would be articles like this lol:

Will Levis' NFL draft odds soar after Reddit post links QB to Panthers

But, probably the biggest one is using Vegas odds as a basis for the Bijan to Atlanta argument doesn't take into consideration that odds are only partially based on the likelihood of a certain outcome. Sorry if I'm explaining a dynamic you already understand, but it's relevant to this conversation. A large factor that impacts odds shifting are where money is placed. Oversimplified: the more public money gets put on the Falcons to take Bijan at 1.08, the more Vegas will lower the odds. This doesn't necessarily mean they view it as more likely to happen now; it's just them cushioning the financial impact they will endure should that happen. The ultimate goal of a sports book is really to have an equal amount of money on both sides of every bet, as that's how the recognize the most (and safest) gains. So in some ways I think it's the tail wagging the dog here: where a bad public take gains steam, odds adjust to compensate for the financial impact, and then that adjustment is used out of context to further reinforce the initial bad take. Least that's how I'm reading it on this one.
It's true, the odds shift all the time, and move based on goofy rumors sometimes. But I tend to give decent credibility to large groups of people putting their money where their mouths are. Vegas odds require a grain of salt or two, for sure. Especially on props/futures that have many possible outcomes to choose from, or where one side has very heavy odds. If it's a two-way bet and the odds are something like -150/+140, I honesty consider the odds quite accurate. (I like to think, if those odds are where they are just because of some stupid people, wouldn't there be enough wealthy intelligent people who know where the odds should be, putting down the big bucks, and driving the odds back toward the appropriate spot? But maybe the stupid masses are overwhelming.) Regardless, like I said, on prop bets with 32 possible outcomes, the odds are going to be cut down a lot and not necessarily give an accurate depiction. But +250 vs +600 as the 2nd best odds is pretty stark. Granted, +250 is still far more likely not than so.

Eta: I like to say, to anyone who says Vegas odds are clearly wrong ... You're cleaning up right now putting bets down on the side you think is correct, right? I mean, obviously? The odds are so far off, after all. (Though I'm being sarcastic, sometimes that may even be true. The odds were heavy on Rodgers going to the Raiders a few weeks ago, then suddenly flipped to the Jets.)
 
Please no New England (as a Pollard owner with the 1.01 would not be thrilled with Dallas for this year)

Philly please #1 choice
Atlanta #2 choice I guess

Not really wanting Washington just because that team seems like a mess and bad offense and questionable QB.
 
Please no New England (as a Pollard owner with the 1.01 would not be thrilled with Dallas for this year)

Philly please #1 choice
Atlanta #2 choice I guess

Not really wanting Washington just because that team seems like a mess and bad offense and questionable QB.
With you on WAS, NEP as please god noooooooooo

I could live with PHI or ATL.

LAC/Cinci is livin the dream though. :wub:
 
Please no New England (as a Pollard owner with the 1.01 would not be thrilled with Dallas for this year)

Philly please #1 choice
Atlanta #2 choice I guess

Not really wanting Washington just because that team seems like a mess and bad offense and questionable QB.
With you on WAS, NEP as please god noooooooooo

I could live with PHI or ATL.

LAC/Cinci is livin the dream though. :wub:
Well I have Ekeler in a couple and Mixon in 3 dynasty leagues so while that be great for my 3 shares of 1.01 it would suck for my 2 shares of Ekeler and 2 shares of Mixon.

Just realized I only have 2 shares of Mixon and 3 of Dalvin. Lots of 2017 RB's all over my dynasty teams.
 
Well I have Ekeler in a couple and Mixon in 3 dynasty leagues so while that be great for my 3 shares of 1.01 it would suck for my 2 shares of Ekeler and 3 shares of Mixon.
If I happens I will try to temper my excitement on the forums out of respect for your tragic losses.
 
Well I have Ekeler in a couple and Mixon in 3 dynasty leagues so while that be great for my 3 shares of 1.01 it would suck for my 2 shares of Ekeler and 2 shares of Mixon.
If I happens I will try to temper my excitement on the forums out of respect for your tragic losses.
Don't see him going to Cincy not falling that far. Chargers I guess could happen but there seems to be a lot of momentum for Bijan to go top 20 even top 15 lately.

And I am pretty sure you wouldn't.
 
NFL Rookie Watch @NFLRookieWatxh
Many scouts and executives reportedly believe Bijan Robinson to the Falcons is looking “more and more” likely. Several scouts reportedly “don’t see a way” Robinson makes it out of the Top-10 with the Falcons, Bears, and Eagles bottoming out the first 10 picks. Robinson said in a recent interview that the QB he would want to play with “the most” is Jalen Hurts. Robinson is looking at potentially being the first RB selected in the Top-10 since Saquon Barkley
 

The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia believes the Bills could be an option for Texas RB Bijan Robinson if he ends up falling on Thursday evening.​

The Bills are sitting at No. 27. It seems unlikely Robinson falls that far — or even close to it — but teams have gradually become more disciplined with running backs. The Bills have also spent several years desperately searching for backfield solutions. They were short a playmaker or two in 2022. Even if it's just informed speculation, Buscaglia's thought seems plausible.
RELATED:
SOURCE: Joe Buscaglia on Twitter
Apr 27, 2023, 2:34 PM ET
 

The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia believes the Bills could be an option for Texas RB Bijan Robinson if he ends up falling on Thursday evening.​

The Bills are sitting at No. 27. It seems unlikely Robinson falls that far — or even close to it — but teams have gradually become more disciplined with running backs. The Bills have also spent several years desperately searching for backfield solutions. They were short a playmaker or two in 2022. Even if it's just informed speculation, Buscaglia's thought seems plausible.
RELATED:
SOURCE: Joe Buscaglia on Twitter
Apr 27, 2023, 2:34 PM ET
He’s not making it that far.

Some of these “reports” as we near the draft are getting a bit grating. No offense to @Faust of course.

Like wait, if a top 5 talent in the draft drops to 27, they’re in?

Imma file that under “N” for “no ****, Sherlock.”
 

The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia believes the Bills could be an option for Texas RB Bijan Robinson if he ends up falling on Thursday evening.​

The Bills are sitting at No. 27. It seems unlikely Robinson falls that far — or even close to it — but teams have gradually become more disciplined with running backs. The Bills have also spent several years desperately searching for backfield solutions. They were short a playmaker or two in 2022. Even if it's just informed speculation, Buscaglia's thought seems plausible.
RELATED:
SOURCE: Joe Buscaglia on Twitter
Apr 27, 2023, 2:34 PM ET
He’s not making it that far.

Some of these “reports” as we near the draft are getting a bit grating. No offense to @Faust of course.

Like wait, if a top 5 talent in the draft drops to 27, they’re in?

Imma file that under “N” for “no ****, Sherlock.”
Gibbs, however, could be incredible for them, and far more likely.
 

The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia believes the Bills could be an option for Texas RB Bijan Robinson if he ends up falling on Thursday evening.​

The Bills are sitting at No. 27. It seems unlikely Robinson falls that far — or even close to it — but teams have gradually become more disciplined with running backs. The Bills have also spent several years desperately searching for backfield solutions. They were short a playmaker or two in 2022. Even if it's just informed speculation, Buscaglia's thought seems plausible.
RELATED:
SOURCE: Joe Buscaglia on Twitter
Apr 27, 2023, 2:34 PM ET
He’s not making it that far.

Some of these “reports” as we near the draft are getting a bit grating. No offense to @Faust of course.

Like wait, if a top 5 talent in the draft drops to 27, they’re in?

Imma file that under “N” for “no ****, Sherlock.”
Not to mention Jerry Jones must have fallen asleep in the war room.

There is a real chance he goes top 10.
 

NFL Network's James Palmer reports the Eagles' interest in Texans RB Bijan Robinson "is real."​

Known for building from the trenches out, Robinson would be an out of character pick for Eagles GM Howie Roseman, though he would also be an in-character pick for a team that believes its roster is already complete. The Eagles would certainly be justified in believing so after nearly hoisting the Lombardi in February. The Eagles' backfield is also in flux after letting Miles Sanders walk and replacing him with an aging (for a running back) and injury-prone Rashaad Penny. Robinson would be a scary fit in one of the league's most dangerous rushing attacks.
RELATED:
SOURCE: James Palmer on Twitter
Apr 27, 2023, 3:23 PM ET
 
Just acquired the 1.1, hoping Arthur Smith and the Falcons take him. Might not be the absolute #1 spot for his value but it will avoid some possible land mines.
 

Falcons selected Texas RB Bijan Robinson with the No. 8 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.​

Woe to your Tyler Allgeier best ball shares. Robinson (5’11/215) enters the league as one of the most complete packages you will ever see at the running back position. Wildly productive for inconsistent Longhorns teams, Robinson piled up 3,410 yards rushing in only three seasons, averaging 6.3 yards per carry and scoring 33 touchdowns on the ground. He was equally explosive as a receiver, tacking on a 60/805/8 line and averaging 13.4 yards per grab. 8.0 is considered a good mark for a runner. An off-the-charts athlete whose 9.85 relative athletic score (out of 10.0) is one of the highest of all time for a running back, Robinson’s timed speed of 4.46 is elite for his size. In the open field, Robinson combines canny instincts with rare agility. Robinson is the definition of “cuts on a time,” requiring no “gather steps” to change direction. Also a tackle-breaker — he broke PFF’s college record — Robinson is just as capable of blowing through tackles as going around them. To top it all off, Robinson will play his entire rookie season at only 21 years old. A true three-down wunderkid with the athletic profile to stack big plays and dole out punishment, Robinson should be an RB1 for years to come in fantasy.
Apr 27, 2023, 9:14 PM ET


Falcons select Texas RB Bijan Robinson with No. 8 overall pick in 2023 NFL Draft
 
The question I’ll be looking to answer is how much Allegier and CPatt are going to siphon this year. He’s going to be amazing on any team, just wonder about his short term ceiling there and with RBs, *everything* is short term.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top