Magic 8 Ball says very doubtful.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Magic 8 Ball says very doubtful.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, he’ll be listed as what he was drafted as.
Deebo doesn’t get RB, so Bijan probably won’t get WR.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Lynn Bowden went from RB to WR, I think his second year. But I would certainly hope that wouldn't happen with Bijan, and couldn't really see it being possible. Dual designation would be fine, of course, but I kind of doubt that happens.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Well deserved hype IMO.
It’s a little odd that when a generational talent comes around, some folks reaction seems to be saying they’re overrated.
That would also seem premature.
After all, we have a LOT of film on Bijan. Several years worth in fact. He’s been performing at a top level since high school, and he hasn’t missed a beat at any level.
At present there is a plethora of evidence supporting the hype. And that he landed on the runningest team with a coach who’s going to make him the centerpiece of the offense would seem to justify even more hype.
Interestingly there is zero evidence supporting the contention that he’s overhyped.
A part of me finds it hilarious they are so excited to use their top 10 drafted RB split out wide as a WR when they rarely ever used their top 10 drafted WR or top 10 drafted TE in such a capacity this past year.
Edit: And I don’t mean that as a knock on Bijan, more expressing frustration with the coaching staff for fantasy purposes.
Edit: And I don’t mean that as a knock on Bijan, more expressing frustration with the coaching staff for fantasy purposes.
Last edited:
Da Franchise
Footballguy
I put that on Mariota as much as anything. Ridder wasn’t any better but maybe with an off-season he can…just kidding. He sucks.
The good news is having watched Heinicke for the last couple years I can promise you he will push up the production for skill players across the board if he gets to start at any point. He’s just a journeyman type starter/excellent back up in real life but for fantasy purposes he’s good enough to move the chains and get the ball to his playmakers which is a massive improvement compared to last year. Our guys won’t feast with him but they’re not gonna starve either.
I wonder how committed the Falcons are to Ridder because with the lack of quality in that division Atlanta should be relevant all season. Wouldn’t at all be surprised if Heinicke comes in mid season and closes out the year. In fact that’s what I’m expecting.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m expecting ATL to suck enough to draft a good QB next year.
I’m not sure Heineke YOLO’ing his way to 7 wins is good for ATL long-term.
He might get some run though, I concede that.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Not saying it’s good long term, just what I think is most likely. That division will very likely go down to the wire and be won with 8 or 9 wins. And Arthur Smith needs to put wins on the board at some point in his tenure, last thing he needs is a step back since they won 7 last two years, so he’s motivated to squeeze every drop that he can out of them. An 8 or 9 win season takes a lot of twists and turns so if Ridder struggles but they are in the race, seems to me he’s not going to hesitate to look for a spark, which is exactly the type of QB Heinicke is. He gives an offense a little shock, but that goes away pretty quickly and then he’s just treading water every week.
Falcons actually have a pretty good roster. I’m not sure they could lose their way to a top 2 pick regardless of who they play at QB. They’re too solid not to eek out 5 or 6 wins with that schedule. And I think they’re a bit better than that, too. They’re basically the Lions to me, minus the average to slightly above average QB play.
Can you show me some game film from the NFL?
You're taking him top 3 over more proven backs?
I would take him in redraft over every rb minus CMC. I can understand people wanting Ekeler over him, I just see some regression coming there. Bijan is immensely talented and I really see a Saquon-like rookie season coming from him. I don’t see him catching 90 balls, but I could certainly see 65-70, and I think he’ll rush for more yards than Saquon did.
In dynasty he’s comfortably my rb1. Sometimes in fantasy you just have to plant flags, and Bijan’s talent coupled with the draft capital and situation he’s fell into just screams fantasy monster for me. Others may disagree, but that’s what makes this game fun.
Wow.I would take him in redraft over every rb minus CMC. I can understand people wanting Ekeler over him, I just see some regression coming there. Bijan is immensely talented and I really see a Saquon-like rookie season coming from him. I don’t see him catching 90 balls, but I could certainly see 65-70, and I think he’ll rush for more yards than Saquon did.
In dynasty he’s comfortably my rb1. Sometimes in fantasy you just have to plant flags, and Bijan’s talent coupled with the draft capital and situation he’s fell into just screams fantasy monster for me. Others may disagree, but that’s what makes this game fun.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The top rookie RBs that were first round picks in fantasy re-drafts have traditionally shown to be some of the safest first round picks:
- Trent Richarson (2012)
- Todd Gurley (2015)
- Zeke Elliot (2016)
- Kareem Hunt (2017)
- Saquon Barkley (2018)
- Nick Chubb (2018)
The only recent one that "busted" was CEH, and he wasn't even a total bust from a fantasy perspective that year, just not worth the first round pick status.
Trent Richardson eventually busted but he had a great rookie season from a fantasy perspective given his volume.
Not so much a wow, really the standard or if you will average ranking.Wow.I would take him in redraft over every rb minus CMC. I can understand people wanting Ekeler over him, I just see some regression coming there. Bijan is immensely talented and I really see a Saquon-like rookie season coming from him. I don’t see him catching 90 balls, but I could certainly see 65-70, and I think he’ll rush for more yards than Saquon did.
In dynasty he’s comfortably my rb1. Sometimes in fantasy you just have to plant flags, and Bijan’s talent coupled with the draft capital and situation he’s fell into just screams fantasy monster for me. Others may disagree, but that’s what makes this game fun.
In FFPC leagues he's RB2 since the draft. I agree and I might even push him over CMC whose workload from last season concerns me, not there yet over trust issues with the offense.
It's really not close in dynasty, without any doubt the largest gap between any position.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree with him. And it’s not even a “wow” moment. It’s just the logical pick.Wow.I would take him in redraft over every rb minus CMC. I can understand people wanting Ekeler over him, I just see some regression coming there. Bijan is immensely talented and I really see a Saquon-like rookie season coming from him. I don’t see him catching 90 balls, but I could certainly see 65-70, and I think he’ll rush for more yards than Saquon did.
In dynasty he’s comfortably my rb1. Sometimes in fantasy you just have to plant flags, and Bijan’s talent coupled with the draft capital and situation he’s fell into just screams fantasy monster for me. Others may disagree, but that’s what makes this game fun.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, I feel the same - CMC has a history of injury, some murkiness at QB, and heavy workloads would have me going Bijan over CMC as well.
Last edited:
eighsse2
Footballguy
Also could be noted (on the dynasty side of things) that all of the top non-rookie RB's this year have some serious dings on their value. So being "dynasty RB1" doesn't mean quite as much as it did when there was a David Johnson, or a Todd Gurley, or a younger, healthier Christian McCaffrey, etc.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s fair, but I do have Bijan as that caliber of back. He has his own style - but certainly the ability. That, plus the opportunity is tremendous.
At present it sure sounds like he’s going to be a hybrid rusher/receiver and could command ~30% of the team’s offensive touches?
There’s potential for fantasy greatness here.
Whether he delivers on that potential or not is TBD, but you have to bet on the upside. And the floor seems pretty safe as well.
eighsse2
Footballguy
No doubt, it would be very difficult to bet against the guy. But if those three guys -- or Adrian Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson, or whoever -- were in their prime and still young right now, I think Bijan would average below them all in dynasty startups, as he's technically an unknown in the NFL arena.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s fair.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
That’s what everyone taking him No. 1 was hoping for, the next Cordarrelle Patterson.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Just 12 more years and this investment will start to pay off!
Da Franchise
Footballguy
MCFootball123
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Back in the day, it was the best fantasy football magazine year in and year out - I have not read a fantasy football magazine in 10 years now though. Maybe they have a website?
Side note, man do I miss these days. I was thinking about this yesterday.
I started playing fantasy I think around 2009. Back before it completely exploded and everyone and their grandma had a fantasy football podcast, there was no better feeling than walking into the local grocery store in April or May and seeing that they had the new fantasy football magazines out. Reading that thing cover to cover hoping to acquire even the slightest edge over your leaguemates that didn’t take fantasy nearly as serious you did
Those were the days.
joey
Footballguy
Same…but 1994.
Always loved Fantasy Index. Was basically my introduction to fantasy football well over 20 years ago. More so than maybe anyone, they march to the beat of their own drum. Not saying they are the most accurate, but I for one, really appreciate someone having their own opinions, consensus ranks be damned.
Having said all that, if Bijan ends up RB13, something has gone terribly wrong for him either health wise, or Tyler Allgeier is playing at an all-pro level to keep his share. I wouldn't bet on either.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I did a study awhile back evaluating RB careers for all RB that were useful for fantasy football purposes at some point of their careers.
One of the things I learned from this was that the rookie season was the least productive on average out of these RB first six seasons.
So while a RB is more likely to be productive in their rookie season than other positions, and can be top 12 producers for FF as rookies, its still the least productive season of their first 6 seasons on average. So no matter how good the player is, I think it still makes sense to temper ones expectations. They are rookies after all and its still a big jump in level of competition from college to the pros that takes time for them to adjust to.
One of the things I learned from this was that the rookie season was the least productive on average out of these RB first six seasons.
So while a RB is more likely to be productive in their rookie season than other positions, and can be top 12 producers for FF as rookies, its still the least productive season of their first 6 seasons on average. So no matter how good the player is, I think it still makes sense to temper ones expectations. They are rookies after all and its still a big jump in level of competition from college to the pros that takes time for them to adjust to.
Keith1
Footballguy
They do have a website (their name dot com). Nothing great. It pales in comparison to FBG. That said, I get their annual magazine (I do a decent amount of flying in July and it makes for good reading on the plane). They do take a stand (so to speak) and do not simply follow the crowd when it comes to their rankings and analysis. IF you are buying a FF magazine, I think theirs is the one to get.
joey
Footballguy
Agreed entirely and I was thinking the same thing. If he’s drafted in his rookie season as a top 5 RB in the first round, and he finishes RB13, that is neither a bust nor shocking. I wish some of my recent 1st round picks finished top 13 (hello, 2022 Jonathan Taylor)
Dez
Footballguy
They are not, it is PPG projections and they list him with 16 starts but they also list him with the RBBC icon next to his name.
Dez
Footballguy
1994 was the first year I bought the Fantasy Index. I have every copy from 1994 to 2023 on my shelf (except for 2011 when they did not do a hard copy because of the lockout).Same…but 1994.
I really like the guy who is their main guy Ian Allen he is really nice guy I have emailed with him a while back for years back and forth and he even asked me to once look over his dynasty rankings before publishing the book one year.
He has always been low on rookies and has his own rankings that are nothing like ADP.
Good thing I didn't listen to his advice in 1998 he said Randy Moss was going to be a bust for dynasty. I traded up from pick 7 to 3 to snag Moss by #1 ranked overall dynasty ranked player in 1998 and he helped me win a lot of my 11 championships I have in this one dynasty league including 1998 when he scored 17 TD's.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I do miss Moss. FF hasnt really been the same for me since he retired.
The game was dominated by RB back then and a lot of leagues were not PPR yet back then. He was such a difference maker.
I won him in auction for a dynasty league we started that year, almost all Vikings fans. I had Marvin Harrison and Tory Holt as well. Terrell Davis, Eddie George.
That keague folded after 2 seasons. It was too complicated for most of the participants and there was huge disparity in the quality of the rosters.
But I had Moss on every team i ran for most of his career. Nothng will ever really be able to compare to that for me.
Anyhow yes FF index been around forever and its just ignorance to dismiss it because of how they rank anybody even if they end up being wrong. Their product one of the original ones before FF gained popularity. They are one of the reasons it did in the first place.
The game was dominated by RB back then and a lot of leagues were not PPR yet back then. He was such a difference maker.
I won him in auction for a dynasty league we started that year, almost all Vikings fans. I had Marvin Harrison and Tory Holt as well. Terrell Davis, Eddie George.
That keague folded after 2 seasons. It was too complicated for most of the participants and there was huge disparity in the quality of the rosters.
But I had Moss on every team i ran for most of his career. Nothng will ever really be able to compare to that for me.
Anyhow yes FF index been around forever and its just ignorance to dismiss it because of how they rank anybody even if they end up being wrong. Their product one of the original ones before FF gained popularity. They are one of the reasons it did in the first place.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Especially when you consider the offense and ? at QB. Atlanta could be a team that plays very slowly and struggles to score points. I wouldn't even be surprised to see them be cautious with Bijan-especially the 2nd half of the year if they fall out of the playoff hunt.
MCFootball123
Footballguy
I guess the other wild card is the way Arthur Smith has shown he will take a skill player in the top 5 and severely under-utilize him. Surely lightning won't strike twice.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Their schedule is soft though it’s gonna be nearly impossible to be out of the division hunt. I think Ridder is garbage but if (when) Heinicke gets the nod mid season, he will elevate that offense. He’s not good but he can keep it moving.
