RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (2 Viewers)

[Bracie Smathers]

LINK to video
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NFL Rookie Watch
@NFLRookieWatxh

Bijan Robinson’s balance is something ELSE
The Texas RB led all of college football in forced missed tackles last season with 104.
One of the best RB prospects the NFL Draft has seen in a WHILE.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

https://twitter.com/TheHQNerd/status/1625856018617090051

a Twitter thread of Bijan awesome.

I’ve seen it before but this move here is just sick.

https://twitter.com/thehqnerd/status/1625856032609275911?s=46&t=iO6TNXSZSMF_ACdvOL6ujg

Love the highlight but he does a little flare or wheel route into the flat totally uncovered until he has the ball in his hands and is moving forward, yes impressive juke but I doubt he will be that wide open when he hits the NFL.

I am a BR fan like many of you and would like to see where he lands before I get excited. I don't think he is a Top 5 talent though or worthy of a Top 5 pick but that's my opinion and means nothing since so many are sold on this guy already.

 

[Lehigh98]

He's now going RB1 and in the first round of some SF startup mocks.
He could run for 2,000 yards and cure cancer while doing it and I can't see how his value could get much higher.
At this point, I feel like if you can get that kind of value for him it's a mistake not to trade him / the 1.01 pick.
(But, as usual, I'll probably get excited by the hype, hold him, and regret it later)

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

https://twitter.com/TheHQNerd/status/1625856018617090051

a Twitter thread of Bijan awesome.

I’ve seen it before but this move here is just sick.

https://twitter.com/thehqnerd/status/1625856032609275911?s=46&t=iO6TNXSZSMF_ACdvOL6ujg

Love the highlight but he does a little flare or wheel route into the flat totally uncovered until he has the ball in his hands and is moving forward, yes impressive juke but I doubt he will be that wide open when he hits the NFL.

I am a BR fan like many of you and would like to see where he lands before I get excited. I don't think he is a Top 5 talent though or worthy of a Top 5 pick but that's my opinion and means nothing since so many are sold on this guy already.

Well sure, no RB gets picked top 5 in the NFL these days. That’s just the current landscape of the NFL.

I believe he is the top offensive talent in this draft, and that includes the QBs. There are simply no holes in his game.

Regarding the link I posted, that’s 1 play, and I was only commenting on the sudden juke - it was a nice move that resulted in a much bigger gain.

No, he won’t be that open all the time in the NFL, but knowing he can do things like that to extend plays & gain extra yardage just adds to his resume. He also has the ability to get skinny running between the tackles, has lateral moves and quick burst to get to the next level of the defense. He lacks top end speed but he’s plenty fast enough to break long TDs.

And he’s a beast to take down, has a sudden, wicked stiff-arm, and is a tackle breaking machine - 104 IIRC? Led all of college RBs.

He’s easily a top 5 offensive player for the 2023 draft, IMO. I don’t see landing spot as an issue, only a potential boost if it’s a good offensive line.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

don’t see landing spot as an issue, only a potential boost if it’s a good offensive line.

The fact that RBs are devalued sometimes helps them land to better teams later in the first round. Better teams tend to have better OLs.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

don’t see landing spot as an issue, only a potential boost if it’s a good offensive line.

The fact that RBs are devalued sometimes helps them land to better teams later in the first round. Better teams tend to have better OLs.

Eagles have 2 first round picks, think one of them is #10 overall and I think they are in a perfect spot.
Imagine if they could find a RB that would make running Hurts a thing of the past or just in times where is scrambling.
With the other skill players at all the positions, you're talking about a potential all time great offense. Something like the Rams with Warner.
It's scary how much better they could get in the short term. Eventually they will have to retool the aging OL but they are one of the best right now, exploit it!

And believe me I'm no Eagles fan but happy to stockpile their players in redraft.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

If Robinson falls somewhere past the Top 15 if that's possible, you start to open up the board to teams that might trade back up into the 1st round.
Some mock drafts have him falling past 20, that would put him on a pretty solid team.
There are so. many teams, even ones with RBs already that he would instantly make better.

 

[ghostguy123]

Eagles would sure be interesting. Pick 10 is probably too high, but as a fairly cheap luxury pick for the next 4 years?? Hmmmmmm

 

[menobrown]

Eagles have 2 first round picks, think one of them is #10 overall and I think they are in a perfect spot.
Imagine if they could find a RB that would make running Hurts a thing of the past or just in times where is scrambling.
With the other skill players at all the positions, you're talking about a potential all time great offense. Something like the Rams with Warner.
It's scary how much better they could get in the short term. Eventually they will have to retool the aging OL but they are one of the best right now, exploit it!

And believe me I'm no Eagles fan but happy to stockpile their players in redraft.

It's almost rare to see a mock that does not have the Eagles taking a RB in round one and I think part of that reason is the their 2 #1's, Sanders FA status and idea they are a team short on needs and can afford a luxury pick.

The one item I would push back on in this team may not be as short on needs as many assume. They actually have a massive amount of key FA's especially hitting their defense. On offense they got Sanders, Seumalo and Kelce's status unknown, past that just some depth-some key depth like Minshew but depth. But their defense is hit hard I think 7 or 8 starters from their SB on the defensive side plus some key reserves. Put this another way PFF had a top 100 list of FA's the Eagle's had 7 defensive players as FA's in that top 100 which does not include depth like Cox, Suh, Linval Joseph.

I know Roseman is great with the cap but I am just saying this team might be opening up a lot more holes then people realize and might need to reconstruct majority of their defense. I'd personally be surprised if they stayed at 10 and chose Bijan.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Eagles would sure be interesting. Pick 10 is probably too high, but as a fairly cheap luxury pick for the next 4 years?? Hmmmmmm

Also, the Eagles can likely trade down a few spots, add a couple more picks for next year and still get Robinson perhaps in the 15-18 range and his yearly salary would come down quite a lot from say 10th overall. Lot of ways they can run the Draft with 10 and 30 going into things. Detroit at 6 and 18 is a big player this year as well.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Eagles would sure be interesting. Pick 10 is probably too high, but as a fairly cheap luxury pick for the next 4 years?? Hmmmmmm

Imagine him falling to them with their 2nd pick at the end of the 1st.

Would other teams really let that happen? Man.

 

[menobrown]

Would other teams really let that happen?

I know we have FA to fill some holes and the draft order can change but it's very hard for me to believe that once you hit the Chargers spot at 21 that they, Baltimore, Dallas, Buffalo and Cincy would all pass.

From what I've gathered it seems like most teams are going to hover in a 15-20 range for players they grade as first round players, belief is it's going to be a little lower then most years. My guess is if he's not part of that group, once teams have players they no longer have first round grades on, at that point he'll become much harder for teams to pass, especially those with any kind of RB need. So it's difficult for me to see him lasting till 31.

 

[Lehigh98]

Eagles would sure be interesting. Pick 10 is probably too high, but as a fairly cheap luxury pick for the next 4 years?? Hmmmmmm

Imagine him falling to them with their 2nd pick at the end of the 1st.

And then they pass and the Chiefs take him... CEH 2!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Eagles would sure be interesting. Pick 10 is probably too high, but as a fairly cheap luxury pick for the next 4 years?? Hmmmmmm

Imagine him falling to them with their 2nd pick at the end of the 1st.

And then they pass and the Chiefs take him... CEH 2!

Cmon. He would be good enough to make up for the CEH pick. Bijan on the chiefs - i would need a moment. And a moist towelette.

 

[JoeJoe88]

Eagles would sure be interesting. Pick 10 is probably too high, but as a fairly cheap luxury pick for the next 4 years?? Hmmmmmm

Imagine him falling to them with their 2nd pick at the end of the 1st.

And then they pass and the Chiefs take him... CEH 2!

There’s no comparison between Bijan and CEH.

The Chiefs simply got bamboozled by CEH. He's a slow, unathletic running back that is a decent pass catcher that got propelled into the first round because he was on a historically good college offense. Which is why he's been reduced to the bench in favor of 30 year-old Jerick McKinnon and a 7th round rookie. Imagine if the Chiefs had taken Taylor instead.

I don’t think it happens, but as someone who owns the 1.01 I would lose my mind(in a good way) if Bijan landed in KC.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don’t think it happens, but as someone who owns the 1.01 I would lose my mind(in a good way) if Bijan landed in KC.

Same.

ETA: I would be sad for my Pacheco share. But at least I’d have my own handcuff.

 

[Tanner9919]

from the videos I've seen, he is what pundits call him the best RB since Barkley and maybe even better. so many runs you watch he *might* go outside but runs inside and accelerates to ludicrous speed in a nanosecond. I love that he is not a bounce it outside guy, he's a between the tackles killer. if i'm the bears I'm considering him #1 overall.they can run the crap out of the ball against anyone, imagine that offense with this rb?! wow. I bet at least 4 teams try to trade up ahead of Eagles to get him in top 10.
this kid is going to be a better marshall faulk. even Kiper has glowing words about him. others have noticed the marshall faulk reference. this kid is going to be special, probably a better Barkley, a Nick Chubb with Edgerin James' hands. probably the best player in the draft and there's likely no comparison.

 

[Faust]

Daniel Jeremiah 2023 NFL Mock Draft 2.0: Bijan Robinson to Bucs at No. 19 Overall

The biggest reason why the Bucs might actually draft Texas RB Bijan Robinson

 

[TampaMike19]

Daniel Jeremiah 2023 NFL Mock Draft 2.0: Bijan Robinson to Bucs at No. 19 Overall

The biggest reason why the Bucs might actually draft Texas RB Bijan Robinson

This team is in desperate need to add youth to the WR room as well as add speed and youth to the front 7. RB should not be taken by any means necessary.

Signed,
A biased Rachaad White owner

 

[ghostguy123]

from the videos I've seen, he is what pundits call him the best RB since Barkley and maybe even better. so many runs you watch he *might* go outside but runs inside and accelerates to ludicrous speed in a nanosecond. I love that he is not a bounce it outside guy, he's a between the tackles killer. if i'm the bears I'm considering him #1 overall.they can run the crap out of the ball against anyone, imagine that offense with this rb?! wow. I bet at least 4 teams try to trade up ahead of Eagles to get him in top 10.
this kid is going to be a better marshall faulk. even Kiper has glowing words about him. others have noticed the marshall faulk reference. this kid is going to be special, probably a better Barkley, a Nick Chubb with Edgerin James' hands. probably the best player in the draft and there's likely no comparison.

Looks like someone owns the 1.01

 

[Birdie048]

OK... Asking a question on Wear & Tear regarding a Premier RB like Bijan Robinson. Yes, I own 1.01 pick (12 Team 1 QB PPR)
College stats have him at ~600 touches over 3 years.
Reports (no reliable data I have found) indicate high volume usage in High School (as expected for his caliber player)
Some data looks like >600 touches in high school .

By comparison a few "high volume RB" college touches:
Jahmyr Gibbs - almost 500 touches
Zeke Elliot - over 650 touches
Derrick Henry - over 650 touches
JK Dobbins - almost 800 touches

Some of the recent write up have him "showing some tread wear" and I am not in agreement. His usage is not exorbitant or excessive for a Junior coming into NFL Draft
So, does >1200 touches appear as a negative? Or more of a "development" of his skill and strength?
Thoughts on early "Wear & Tear" for Bijan?

Updated RB names ... by apologies

 

[fred_1_15301]

from the videos I've seen, he is what pundits call him the best RB since Barkley and maybe even better. so many runs you watch he *might* go outside but runs inside and accelerates to ludicrous speed in a nanosecond. I love that he is not a bounce it outside guy, he's a between the tackles killer. if i'm the bears I'm considering him #1 overall.they can run the crap out of the ball against anyone, imagine that offense with this rb?! wow. I bet at least 4 teams try to trade up ahead of Eagles to get him in top 10.
this kid is going to be a better marshall faulk. even Kiper has glowing words about him. others have noticed the marshall faulk reference. this kid is going to be special, probably a better Barkley, a Nick Chubb with Edgerin James' hands. probably the best player in the draft and there's likely no comparison.

Taking a RB (regardless of how good he might be) # 1 overall is ludicrous. The Bears have tons of needs and already have an excellent running QB. Getting a stud RB would seem to be pretty damn low on their list of priorities. And why would they draft him at 1? They could easily trade down and get him later.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

from the videos I've seen, he is what pundits call him the best RB since Barkley and maybe even better. so many runs you watch he *might* go outside but runs inside and accelerates to ludicrous speed in a nanosecond. I love that he is not a bounce it outside guy, he's a between the tackles killer. if i'm the bears I'm considering him #1 overall.they can run the crap out of the ball against anyone, imagine that offense with this rb?! wow. I bet at least 4 teams try to trade up ahead of Eagles to get him in top 10.
this kid is going to be a better marshall faulk. even Kiper has glowing words about him. others have noticed the marshall faulk reference. this kid is going to be special, probably a better Barkley, a Nick Chubb with Edgerin James' hands. probably the best player in the draft and there's likely no comparison.

Looks like someone owns the 1.01

Me, with the 1.01 in 2 leagues, reading through that post

 

[smbkrypt24]

OK... Asking a question on Wear & Tear regarding a Premier RB like Bijan Robinson. Yes, I own 1.01 pick (12 Team 1 QB PPR)
College stats have him at ~600 touches over 3 years.
Reports (no reliable data I have found) indicate high volume usage in High School (as expected for his caliber player)
Some data looks like >600 touches in high school .

By comparison a few "high volume RB" college touches:
Jahmyr Gibbs - almost 500 touches
Zeke Elliot - over 650 touches
Travis Henry - over 650 touches
DJ Dobbins - almost 800 touches

Some of the recent write up have him "showing some tread wear" and I am not in agreement. His usage is not exorbitant or excessive for a Junior coming into NFL Draft
So, does >1200 touches appear as a negative? Or more of a "development" of his skill and strength?
Thoughts on early "Wear & Tear" for Bijan?

are travis and DJ correct or are those goofs? Derek and JK?

 

[Birdie048]

Sorry ... It was on the fly while on a Conference call ... for work ...

JK Dobbins - almost 800 touches
Derrick Henry - > 650 touches ...

 

[menobrown]

Thoughts on early "Wear & Tear" for Bijan?

Personally would not worry about it in the least. He'll be 21 next season and any impact from high college usage is probably years away. In 4-5 years no one will remember or care about his college workload so for me if I had Bijan I'd go into with viewpoint of hoping enjoying the next 4-5 years and then moving him before his age 25/26 season.

 

[Faust]

Bijan Robinson Draft and Combine Prospect Profile (NFL.com)

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Bijan Robinson Draft and Combine Prospect Profile (NFL.com)

This stands out to me:

“He has to eat. The more carries he gets, the more damage he does. I know it’s not popular, but I would draft him in the first round and just get him the rock as much as I possibly could. He’s a much tougher runner than Saquon (Barkley) was coming out.” -- Personnel executive for NFC team

I’ve watched a ton of Bijan & Saquan alike, and I’m inclined to agree. Saquan doesn’t exactly shy away from contact, but he doesn’t break contact like Bijan either. Robinson straight shakes off tackles.

Whether he can do that at the NFL level is TBD, but 104 broken tackles in 2022 is no joke.

 

[Rookiefever]

My gut tells me this guy lands in Detroit with their second pick if they don’t trade their picks. He’s a difference maker. And… lately. Detroit only targets difference makers high in the draft. I can’t envision a scenario where they take the third/fourth option at other positions when he’s still on the board. It seems they go after bpa and not team needs. Granted they needed every position not long ago.

Also this would be a top 2-3 landing spot for him imo.

 

[Faust]

Daniel Jeremiah: Bijan Robinson Ranked Top-5 Player by NFL Teams Entering 2023 Draft

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

My gut tells me this guy lands in Detroit with their second pick if they don’t trade their picks. He’s a difference maker. And… lately. Detroit only targets difference makers high in the draft. I can’t envision a scenario where they take the third/fourth option at other positions when he’s still on the board. It seems they go after bpa and not team needs. Granted they needed every position not long ago.

Also this would be a top 2-3 landing spot for him imo.

I would love the landing spot so so soooooo much, but for the 1st year where he'd presumably be in a committee with Swift.

But come 2024, BOOM!

 

[Faust]

My gut tells me this guy lands in Detroit with their second pick if they don’t trade their picks. He’s a difference maker. And… lately. Detroit only targets difference makers high in the draft. I can’t envision a scenario where they take the third/fourth option at other positions when he’s still on the board. It seems they go after bpa and not team needs. Granted they needed every position not long ago.

Also this would be a top 2-3 landing spot for him imo.

I would love the landing spot so so soooooo much, but for the 1st year where he'd presumably be in a committee with Swift. trample over an injured Swift in training camp on his way to seizing the starting job.

But come 2023 Week 1 2024, BOOM!

FIXED.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

FIXED.

You shoulda fixed the BOOM! date too.

 

[Faust]

FIXED.

You shoulda fixed the BOOM! date too.

I was working on that part as a follow up....lol

I made those edits with the subject matter expertise from having Swift on my roster last season.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

It's starting to get crowded in Detroit. In addition to Swift there is the very real chance they also bring back the guy who scored 17 TDs last year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It's starting to get crowded in Detroit. In addition to Swift there is the very real chance they also bring back the guy who scored 17 TDs last year.

I see that isn’t either/or, which bodes extremely well for Bijan Robinson, if he lands there.

 

[Birdie048]

I am wondering if the rumors of Bijan to Motor City are based on the same rumors that Swift is on the market for trade capita? Not sure where I read it

 

[Leroy Hoard]

It's starting to get crowded in Detroit. In addition to Swift there is the very real chance they also bring back the guy who scored 17 TDs last year.

I see that isn’t either/or, which bodes extremely well for Bijan Robinson, if he lands there.

it would be a great landing spot for sure. Excellent OL and an offense built around the running game.

 

[Rookiefever]

It's starting to get crowded in Detroit. In addition to Swift there is the very real chance they also bring back the guy who scored 17 TDs last year.

I agree. Crowded for sure. That said, I wouldn’t hesitate to put bijon in my top ten rbs for redraft even if swift and Williams stayed put. He would excel with with 50% of the lions Rb touches imo. I would anticipate a larger amount of rb touches as well

 

[Leroy Hoard]

It's starting to get crowded in Detroit. In addition to Swift there is the very real chance they also bring back the guy who scored 17 TDs last year.

I agree. Crowded for sure. That said, I wouldn’t hesitate to put bijon in my top ten rbs for redraft even if swift and Williams stayed put. He would excel with with 50% of the lions Rb touches imo. I would anticipate a larger amount of rb touches as well

Yes but still hard to see the Lions drafting him into that situation with a first round pick.

 

[massraider]

I'm not against taking a RB in the 1st round, full stop. In general I think you don't want to build your team taking safeties, guards, linebackers in the 1st round, but:

I think there are times when a good team is on the clock in the late 1st, and if the only 1st round grade you have is a back, I think it's a fine play. We read draft people telling us you can get good backs in the 4th, and that's true, but if you pass on BIjan for a bad player, whom you didn't rank close to BIjan, was it really "good process", as the guys from PFF would say? I don't think so.

But I dunno if a 1st round RB should be in DET's playbook. I fell like DET should be getting by at RB, and focusing elsewhere.

 

[menobrown]

I agree. Crowded for sure. That said, I wouldn’t hesitate to put bijon in my top ten rbs for redraft even if swift and Williams stayed put.

I sure would.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I agree. Crowded for sure. That said, I wouldn’t hesitate to put bijon in my top ten rbs for redraft even if swift and Williams stayed put.

I sure would.

If they take Bijan, I doubt they bring back Williams.

Also, IMO Williams played himself into a bigger payday than perhaps he deserves. He's due for some regression, and his 17 TDs might have some team sniffing around to overpay him.

Not that I begrudge Williams - he earned it. But IMO the Lions would be better off going younger if they're paying a RB rather than older. Williams was a nice story on the 2022 Lions. I doubt he repeats his success in 2023 if they are the ones who overpay him for his 2023 success.

If they do sign Williams, and run Swift into the ground because they have no intentions of keeping him, then it doesn't make sense to draft Bijan.

So again, I see it as an if/then, not a C - all of the above. That, to me, is a highly unlikely scenario.

 

[menobrown]

If they take Bijan, I doubt they bring back Williams.

The problem is any potential Williams re-signing would take place long before the draft when the Lions would not know if they'd actually have Bijan available to them as someone they might opt to draft.

 

[smbkrypt24]

Just in here to say I finally won a lottery share of Bijan. 1 for 3 in my leagues did I win the 1.01 (with 3+ shots out if 6). Very excited and a reason I traded a lot of assets to get more lottery picks this year.

 

[massraider]

The problem is any potential Williams re-signing would take place long before the draft when the Lions would not know if they'd actually have Bijan available to them as someone they might opt to draft

I think this is valid, but now I wonder if Williams is one of the backs who get caught up in the glut of decent backs there are this year.

He might be one of those backs who has to see how the draft shakes out. I don't necessarily think that, but wouldn't surprise me

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If they take Bijan, I doubt they bring back Williams.

The problem is any potential Williams re-signing would take place long before the draft when the Lions would not know if they'd actually have Bijan available to them as someone they might opt to draft.

Sure, but I would think if they sign Williams, they’ll be less likely to go Bijan unless he’s just their absolute slam dunk highest graded target.

That said, sure - it could be ugly in a hurry if they have all 3. But one would think the biggest snap count victim in that scenario would be Swift.

Would definitely cap Bijan’s upside for ‘23

Shouldn’t matter a bit for dynasty, but yeah - makes Bijan a less attractive target for redraft for sure if it shakes out like that.

 

[menobrown]

Sure, but I would think if they sign Williams, they’ll be less likely to go Bijan unless he’s just their absolute slam dunk highest graded target.

The bolded is probably only reason anyone is taking him in round one and they are picking right in range with that second pick in an area a lot of teams will run out of first round graded players. If they have resigned Williams it's probably not a lot of years or money and would possibly be malpractice level to that that contract steer off him if he's someone they'd have otherwise drafted.

Would definitely cap Bijan’s upside for ‘23

There is no way it would not while all 3 were healthy. If this scenario actually unfolded it would make sense that Swift is someone they'd look at trading since they'd just be letting him walk after the season. But they won't find a RB market until all the decent FA RB's have been signed, the draft is over and after those take place a team has some injuries and no other viable way to fix the position. So in-season/in-camp. Just would be bummer for redraft to immediately start hoping for a trade so Bijan can be totally set free.

Shouldn’t matter a bit for dynasty,

Agree, still 1.1 with ease. I own Swift on some teams so absolutely not pulling for this but if it went down it's the kind of thing that might open up a little discount buying window for the 1.1. But we are for sure getting ahead of ourselves and reality is when the FA market is concluded there are not likely to be a lot of wide open RB spots, you just like to see it a less crowded then if the Lions had all 3.

 

[menobrown]

The problem is any potential Williams re-signing would take place long before the draft when the Lions would not know if they'd actually have Bijan available to them as someone they might opt to draft

I think this is valid, but now I wonder if Williams is one of the backs who get caught up in the glut of decent backs there are this year.

He might be one of those backs who has to see how the draft shakes out. I don't necessarily think that, but wouldn't surprise me

Possible and let's be honest unless "I want 3 RB's to carry the load" Duce Staley loves him, and he might, no one else is going to want him as much as the Lions. In other words, I'm not expecting a robust market but my guess would be he'll be signed by someone, most likely the Lions.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Sure, but I would think if they sign Williams, they’ll be less likely to go Bijan unless he’s just their absolute slam dunk highest graded target.

The bolded is probably only reason anyone is taking him in round one and they are picking right in range with that second pick in an area a lot of teams will run out of first round graded players. If they have resigned Williams it's probably not a lot of years or money and would possibly be malpractice level to that that contract steer off him if he's someone they'd have otherwise drafted.

Would definitely cap Bijan’s upside for ‘23

There is no way it would not while all 3 were healthy. If this scenario actually unfolded it would make sense that Swift is someone they'd look at trading since they'd just be letting him walk after the season. But they won't find a RB market until all the decent FA RB's have been signed, the draft is over and after those take place a team has some injuries and no other viable way to fix the position. So in-season/in-camp. Just would be bummer for redraft to immediately start hoping for a trade so Bijan can be totally set free.

Shouldn’t matter a bit for dynasty,

Agree, still 1.1 with ease. I own Swift on some teams so absolutely not pulling for this but if it went down it's the kind of thing that might open up a little discount buying window for the 1.1. But we are for sure getting ahead of ourselves and reality is when the FA market is concluded there are not likely to be a lot of wide open RB spots, you just like to see it a less crowded then if the Lions had all 3.

I don’t disagree with any of your points.

Where I’m skeptical they take Bijan if they also sign Williams is they aren’t really a team with glaring weaknesses - which means any of WR, RB, OL, DL, DB could be potential targets. If a WR they love slips to them and Bijan also, they might feel they need a WR more.

Unless of course they’re planning for a post-swift future, in which case they smash pick Bijan like a dynasty owner at 1.01

I’ll give it a 12% chance.