RB BUST RATE AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO DRAFT POSITION (1 Viewer)

[Jedimaster21]

I have seen many throw out bust rates based on the round a RB is drafted. I believe that around 40% of first rounders, 65% of 2nd rounders, and 70% of third rounders end up falling short of expectations (statistically). But I have a couple of questions surrounding these statistics.

1. How is the label of "bust" determined? Is it based on career yards, or whether the player stays in the league for a certain period of time?

2. Secondly, this is the deepest RB class I can remember. There is no Reggie Bush or Peterson, but there are at least 4 first round talents, and up to 5 more that could be considered 1/2 rounders. These statistics are based on the prospects that come out every year, and are aggregate. So I'm sure that different years impact those bust percentages in different ways. Last year we had second round picks of Irons, Henry, and Brandon Jackson. Do people see a difference in talent between prospects like that and Rice, C. Johnson, Charles, and Kevin Smith?

I basically just wanted to start a discussion about how good this draft class is at the RB position. IMO, due to the depth and talent level of this class, I think it is very likely that we are looking at a lower percentage of busts out of this class than the statistics would show. Thoughts?

 

[Cookiemonster]

I have seen many throw out bust rates based on the round a RB is drafted. I believe that around 40% of first rounders, 65% of 2nd rounders, and 70% of third rounders end up falling short of expectations (statistically). But I have a couple of questions surrounding these statistics. 1. How is the label of "bust" determined? Is it based on career yards, or whether the player stays in the league for a certain period of time? 2. Secondly, this is the deepest RB class I can remember. There is no Reggie Bush or Peterson, but there are at least 4 first round talents, and up to 5 more that could be considered 1/2 rounders. These statistics are based on the prospects that come out every year, and are aggregate. So I'm sure that different years impact those bust percentages in different ways. Last year we had second round picks of Irons, Henry, and Brandon Jackson. Do people see a difference in talent between prospects like that and Rice, C. Johnson, Charles, and Kevin Smith? I basically just wanted to start a discussion about how good this draft class is at the RB position. IMO, due to the depth and talent level of this class, I think it is very likely that we are looking at a lower percentage of busts out of this class than the statistics would show. Thoughts?

I also believe that the depth this class provides itself will also push many backs later than they should normally go. How many mocks have you seen that say "_______ needs to be replaced, but __ is a bigger need so they may try to get their RB in the 2nd or 3rd. Besides that, this draft is pretty well stocked for OT and CB in the 1st round and those two positions are not as deep and are harder to get elite guys at. Teams need more OTs and CBs than RBs and those two are therefore almost as marquee as QB, about equal to DE.

 

[EBF]

I think the talent's been overrated a bit. This group will probably only yield 3-5 long term starters and a handful of minor contributors.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I think the talent's been overrated a bit. This group will probably only yield 3-5 long term starters and a handful of minor contributors.

What more do you want from one draft class? There are 32-50 "starting RBs in a year and a little less than 10 years to full #1 RBs career. Those percentages work out right. So if 3 or 4 are full-time starters, 2 or 3 are sometime starters and another 1 or 2 in RBBC w/ a Sammy Morris and Earnest Graham thrown in there we could concider this a better than standard draft class. I think you have likely starters in McFadden, Stewart and Mendenhall. Probable Starter in Rice. RBBC Felix Jones and Chris Johnson and you probably get a couple bright years out of Forte and K.Smith. Likely the best class in over a decade, maybe two and you think it's overrated? Every year has their late-round gem it seems like, and I think you can count on one of those guys this year too.

 

[EBF]

I think the talent's been overrated a bit. This group will probably only yield 3-5 long term starters and a handful of minor contributors.

What more do you want from one draft class? There are 32-50 "starting RBs in a year and a little less than 10 years to full #1 RBs career. Those percentages work out right. So if 3 or 4 are full-time starters, 2 or 3 are sometime starters and another 1 or 2 in RBBC w/ a Sammy Morris and Earnest Graham thrown in there we could concider this a better than standard draft class. I think you have likely starters in McFadden, Stewart and Mendenhall. Probable Starter in Rice. RBBC Felix Jones and Chris Johnson and you probably get a couple bright years out of Forte and K.Smith. Likely the best class in over a decade, maybe two and you think it's overrated? Every year has their late-round gem it seems like, and I think you can count on one of those guys this year too.

I only see two RB's who are likely to ever amass 250+ carries. That's Stewart and Mendenhall. McFadden will make an early impact and probably eventually become a major contributor for the team that drafts him. That said, it's important to remember that first round RB's bust about 25-30% of the time. So if we trust history, that means only two of these three first rounders will have sustained value. Most of this year's second tier backs lack the size you look for in a featured runner. Ray Rice, Felix Jones, Chris Johnson, and Jamaal Charles will be first day draft picks, but I think those guys project as RBBC types and not starters. So while one or two of them might emerge and become a Westbrook type, I would temper my expectations of the group as a whole. They're not much different from the likes of Julius Jones, Jerious Norwood, Vernand Morency, Brian Calhoun, Ryan Moats, and Tatum Bell. Matt Forte, Tashard Choice, and Kevin Smith have the size you look for in a featured back, but do they have the talent? Maybe. Maybe not. They're not special athletes on paper. Historical odds say probably only one of them will become a long-term success. So in the end, after you factor in the inevitable injury casualties, you're probably looking at 2-3 studs, 1-2 spot starters, 1-2 RBBC guys, and 1 second day steal. Probably only 3-5 backs who will really make a big impact on your dynasty FF team. A good class, but nothing extraordinary. Comparable to the 2006 group. Probably not as good as the 2001 class.