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RB Chase Edmonds, TB (5 Viewers)

Twitter jumped on possibility of a DJ trade with these signings, but speculation is all.  I think the contract is way too big to unload.

 
I am thinking he is not playing on Sunday. I don't know his long term prognosis but, as I said in my earlier post, I would be scared if I were a DJ owner.  

 
Buck Bradcanon said:
Twitter jumped on possibility of a DJ trade with these signings, but speculation is all.  I think the contract is way too big to unload.
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That would be a huge surprise, I mean could he even pass a physical right now? Who would want that contract, and the likely high 2nd round(at least) pick that it would cost?

yoman said:
I am thinking he is not playing on Sunday. I don't know his long term prognosis but, as I said in my earlier post, I would be scared if I were a DJ owner.  
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I think he's pretty certain to be out Sunday. I don't think signing Morris and Zenner tells us anything beyond that. One or both those guys can be easily cut when Johnson is healthy. 

 
zamboni said:
Depends on DJ's health. When/if he is healthy, one or both of those guys will almost certainly go back to their living rooms.
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This is a helpful indicator. As long as they are on the team it is probably unlikely DJ will play. Once they cut one of them it could mean he is on his way back. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
I have heard the former may actually be a possibility
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Really, how did it get this bad?  He went from being banged up but possibly playing to potential IR. Is it from the initial injuries or did he do something to make it worse in the couple snaps he played?

 
skinsrule05 said:
Really, how did it get this bad?  He went from being banged up but possibly playing to potential IR. Is it from the initial injuries or did he do something to make it worse in the couple snaps he played?
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Just what I've heard from personal friends closer to the situation than I am. 

We often see this with star players in a lost season. It's a bit early for that though. 

 
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skinsrule05 said:
Wow, DJ must be really banged up.

When they sign these guys is it week to week or did they just lock in for the rest of the season?
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Veterans signed before week 1 have their contracts guaranteed for the season week 1.

Veterans signed after week 1 can be cut at pretty much any time. 

 
I finally got a big boy offer for Edmonds in one of my leagues. The DJ owner in a mandatory 2 RB dynasty with TE-premium scoring offered me Ertz straight up. On paper this is a snap call, but I turned it down. Drinking the Kool-Aid big time. :ph34r:

I'm hoping he's the next Priest Holmes and not the next Branden Oliver.

 
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I got offered Chase AND DJ for my Lev Bell. I haven't hit accept because I'm worried about the guy's sanity. Is this as bad a trade for him as it sounds to me? Why haven't I clicked accept yet? 

 
Absolutely Nothing said:
I got offered Chase AND DJ for my Lev Bell. I haven't hit accept because I'm worried about the guy's sanity. Is this as bad a trade for him as it sounds to me? Why haven't I clicked accept yet? 
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Lev Bell is a volume monster who hasn't regressed to his mean of expected points yet. His touches have come with eight or even nine in the box. This guy thinks he's actually selling high and buying low. 

 
Absolutely Nothing said:
I got offered Chase AND DJ for my Lev Bell. I haven't hit accept because I'm worried about the guy's sanity. Is this as bad a trade for him as it sounds to me? Why haven't I clicked accept yet? 
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Eh. Bell is about to hit a smoother stretch of the season and many would rather have those points tied up in just one roster spot than potentially two, and if DJ gets healthy, not knowing who is the better start or if both are flexes or what. With Bell you at least feel like you can plug him in and he'll get the majority of the touches every week. I can see it.

 
I think people tend to forget Johnson came into the league as an older rookie.   He will be 28 in a few months.   

So after this season, here comes his age 29 season.....and I honestly believe he will become harder to move.   Better to move a guy early than late, and I think that time is near

 
Absolutely Nothing said:
I got offered Chase AND DJ for my Lev Bell. I haven't hit accept because I'm worried about the guy's sanity. Is this as bad a trade for him as it sounds to me? Why haven't I clicked accept yet? 
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Actually this post just gave me the idea to offer up DJ and Chase for Bell.  Hope he takes it.  Bell's schedule is way easier and there's no WDIS headache to deal with.

 
skinsrule05 said:
Wow, DJ must be really banged up.

When they sign these guys is it week to week or did they just lock in for the rest of the season?
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At this point contracts are not guaranteed, unless specifically stated (which seems unlikely)- these guys are going paycheck to paycheck. Zenner was just signed and released after one game with New Orleans.

 
Telling you what's gonna happen because that's about the way me season is going with Juju, Thielen, DJ and Co....

Last week, DJ is game time, I started him, Edmonds on my bench. This week, gonna start Edmonds, DJ on my bench and DJ will go off.....LOL....tough season this year....man I need a drink.

 
Sasgaard said:
Telling you what's gonna happen because that's about the way me season is going with Juju, Thielen, DJ and Co....

Last week, DJ is game time, I started him, Edmonds on my bench. This week, gonna start Edmonds, DJ on my bench and DJ will go off.....LOL....tough season this year....man I need a drink.
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And finally Arizona's Twitter account will troll everyone with a bunny holding a sign saying "You should've played DJ"

 
What is a good approximate value for Edmonds in a PPR dynasty league?

I think you can't rely on any of the dynasty rankings, because they haven't taken into account his recent success.  He seems like the real deal, looking explosive running the ball.  I'm not sure what DJ's contract is beyond this year, and whether there is any chance Edmonds could be the guy going forward.

Teams trying to acquire him will say "he's only playing because DJ has been hurt," while guys selling him will say "He looks like a future RB1."

But if you have a team in need of a re-build, would you think it better to take a more proven commodity or pick, or hold him hoping he has earned himself a bigger role for the future?  I don't know that I would trade him for a 1st from a contender, as he's young enough and demonstrated he can play in the league, and 1st rounders are still 50/50 as far as "hitting."

 
Tornacl said:
What is a good approximate value for Edmonds in a PPR dynasty league?
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Responses are likely to be all over the map because he's still such an unknown quantity that almost any outcome for his career is plausible.

One big game doesn't conclusively prove anything about his future, so it's hard to assess whether he's a Chris Carson/Arian Foster/Willie Parker/Priest Holmes or just a Tre Mason/Spencer Ware/Branden Oliver/Quentin Griffin. Is he a guy who will endure over time or just a flash in the pan? There have been a lot of the latter and not many who have made the jump to reliable FF asset. My sincere take at the moment:

1. David Johnson is overrated. I'm sorry, but that's the sense I get from reading this thread. Too much weight is being given to things that happened years ago, and not enough emphasis is being placed on his recent form. He's looked mediocre all year and I think his superstar status is more fragile than name brand value alone would dictate. With that being the case, the immediate opportunity here may be better than we've initially believed. 

2. Chase Edmonds is underrated. I was bullish on him as a draft prospect and I thought he looked decent last year, but this year he has seemingly taken a step forward and even before his breakout game there were signs that he was on the cusp. He's looked bigger and quicker than I would've expected, and some of his individual runs and plays have been very impressive. Given that he was a small school guy who had injury problems in his final college season, his late 4th round draft slot in 2018 can perhaps be explained beyond him just being mediocre. I think there's a chance that he will not only be solid, but exceptional. He reminds me a little bit of Tiki Barber, Priest Holmes, or Brian Westbrook in size, play style, and skill set.

So where's the reasonable middle ground when you're trying to assign a reasonable value? For me, he has already shown enough that I wouldn't take a 2nd round rookie pick. Those are good picks, but the hit rate is going to be around 35% long-term and I think he's probably more likely to provide value than a random 2nd rounder now that he has shown some big hints of competence. On the other hand, an early first seems like an overpay since there's still a considerable risk that he'll fade into JAG territory over time.

For me, that suggests that he's worth a late 1st right now. If he flops and he's an irrelevant backup in 12-15 months, you'll be annoyed that you didn't exit right now. On the other hand, if this is the next Priest Holmes or Arian Foster and you let him walk for a modest profit at the first sign of his value exploding, you will also be kicking yourself. Either outcome is possible, but I see enough special qualities that I wouldn't want to get rid of him lightly.

As I may have said before, the fact that few people were onto Edmonds until very recently and that most of his dynasty/redraft owners likely acquired him for a pittance is going to have them treating him like found money and being happy to turn a "profit" off any modest trade package they receive for him. I'd caution against that because, while the risk of long-term irrelevance is considerable, there's also a chance that you just lucked into a top 10-15 PPR back and if you're not getting offered something substantial then there may be a lot more upside in holding.

 
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EBF said:
Responses are likely to be all over the map because he's still such an unknown quantity that almost any outcome for his career is plausible.

One big game doesn't conclusively prove anything about his future, so it's hard to assess whether he's a Chris Carson/Arian Foster/Willie Parker/Priest Holmes or just a Tre Mason/Spencer Ware/Branden Oliver/Quentin Griffin. Is he a guy who will endure over time or just a flash in the pan? There have been a lot of the latter and not many who have made the jump to reliable FF asset. My sincere take at the moment:

1. David Johnson is overrated. I'm sorry, but that's the sense I get from reading this thread. Too much weight is being given to things that happened years ago, and not enough emphasis is being placed on his recent form. He's looked mediocre all year and I think his superstar status is more fragile than name brand value alone would dictate. With that being the case, the immediate opportunity here may be better than we've initially believed. 

2. Chase Edmonds is underrated. I was bullish on him as a draft prospect and I thought he looked decent last year, but this year he has seemingly taken a step forward and even before his breakout game there were signs that he was on the cusp. He's looked bigger and quicker than I would've expected, and some of his individual runs and plays have been very impressive. Given that he was a small school guy who had injury problems in his final college season, his late 4th round draft slot in 2018 can perhaps be explained beyond him just being mediocre. I think there's a chance that he will not only be solid, but exceptional. He reminds me a little bit of Tiki Barber, Priest Holmes, or Brian Westbrook in size, play style, and skill set.

So where's the reasonable middle ground when you're trying to assign a reasonable value? For me, he has already shown enough that I wouldn't take a 2nd round rookie pick. Those are good picks, but the hit rate is going to be around 35% long-term and I think he's probably more likely to provide value than a random 2nd rounder now that he has shown some big hints of competence. On the other hand, an early first seems like an overpay since there's still a considerable risk that he'll fade into JAG territory over time.

For me, that suggests that he's worth a late 1st right now. If he flops and he's an irrelevant backup in 12-15 months, you'll be annoyed that you didn't exit right now. On the other hand, if this is the next Priest Holmes or Arian Foster and you let him walk for a modest profit at the first sign of his value exploding, you will also be kicking yourself. Either outcome is possible, but I see enough special qualities that I wouldn't want to get rid of him lightly.

As I may have said before, the fact that few people were onto Edmonds until very recently and that most of his dynasty/redraft owners likely acquired him for a pittance is going to have them treating him like found money and being happy to turn a "profit" off any modest trade package they receive for him. I'd caution against that because, while the risk of long-term irrelevance is considerable, there's also a chance that you just lucked into a top 10-15 PPR back and if you're not getting offered something substantial then there may be a lot more upside in holding.
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Well said!  Thanks for the insightful response!

 
EBF said:
Responses are likely to be all over the map because he's still such an unknown quantity that almost any outcome for his career is plausible.

One big game doesn't conclusively prove anything about his future, so it's hard to assess whether he's a Chris Carson/Arian Foster/Willie Parker/Priest Holmes or just a Tre Mason/Spencer Ware/Branden Oliver/Quentin Griffin. Is he a guy who will endure over time or just a flash in the pan? There have been a lot of the latter and not many who have made the jump to reliable FF asset. My sincere take at the moment:

1. David Johnson is overrated. I'm sorry, but that's the sense I get from reading this thread. Too much weight is being given to things that happened years ago, and not enough emphasis is being placed on his recent form. He's looked mediocre all year and I think his superstar status is more fragile than name brand value alone would dictate. With that being the case, the immediate opportunity here may be better than we've initially believed. 

2. Chase Edmonds is underrated. I was bullish on him as a draft prospect and I thought he looked decent last year, but this year he has seemingly taken a step forward and even before his breakout game there were signs that he was on the cusp. He's looked bigger and quicker than I would've expected, and some of his individual runs and plays have been very impressive. Given that he was a small school guy who had injury problems in his final college season, his late 4th round draft slot in 2018 can perhaps be explained beyond him just being mediocre. I think there's a chance that he will not only be solid, but exceptional. He reminds me a little bit of Tiki Barber, Priest Holmes, or Brian Westbrook in size, play style, and skill set.

So where's the reasonable middle ground when you're trying to assign a reasonable value? For me, he has already shown enough that I wouldn't take a 2nd round rookie pick. Those are good picks, but the hit rate is going to be around 35% long-term and I think he's probably more likely to provide value than a random 2nd rounder now that he has shown some big hints of competence. On the other hand, an early first seems like an overpay since there's still a considerable risk that he'll fade into JAG territory over time.

For me, that suggests that he's worth a late 1st right now. If he flops and he's an irrelevant backup in 12-15 months, you'll be annoyed that you didn't exit right now. On the other hand, if this is the next Priest Holmes or Arian Foster and you let him walk for a modest profit at the first sign of his value exploding, you will also be kicking yourself. Either outcome is possible, but I see enough special qualities that I wouldn't want to get rid of him lightly.

As I may have said before, the fact that few people were onto Edmonds until very recently and that most of his dynasty/redraft owners likely acquired him for a pittance is going to have them treating him like found money and being happy to turn a "profit" off any modest trade package they receive for him. I'd caution against that because, while the risk of long-term irrelevance is considerable, there's also a chance that you just lucked into a top 10-15 PPR back and if you're not getting offered something substantial then there may be a lot more upside in holding.
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Have you had a look at the Cardinals' schedule?  I'm hoping he isn't an irrelevant backup in 2 weeks.

 
No. 5/6 of my leagues are dynasty, so my main focus is whether or not he's a legit long-term back, not the immediate redraft outlook for the next month.

That being said, I tend to go talent > matchup in most cases because game scripts can be harder to predict than we think.

 
ESPN's Josh Weinfuss expects Chase Edmonds to maintain a "significant role" even when David Johnson (questionable, ankle) is fully healthy.

"I think David’s gonna get a few more touches just because he’s David Johnson," Weinfuss added. "But if he doesn’t produce, I don’t think Kliff Kingsbury would mind going with Edmonds if they start to win games and get in the playoff hunt. And they can do a lot of stuff on the field at the same time, with Johnson running more receiving routes." The Cardinals haven't ruled out Johnson for Sunday, but he's not expected to play after missing practice all week. Coming off a career Week 7, Edmonds would put some heat on Johnson's snaps if he has another strong game.

SOURCE: ESPN

Oct 26, 2019, 10:25 AM ET
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Well said, @EBF. That feels spot-on.

For another datapoint, I very seriously considered offering him in .5ppr dyno for Hollywood Brown (the brown owner had expressed strong interest) before eventually deciding to hold. I see Brown with a higher likelihood of long-term relevance but Edmonds with a higher chance of hitting the peak value of his assumed upside.

 
Sunday AND Thursday? Wow. Just got chase in a trade in one yesterday after getting him in another and playing him last week. Definitely a hopeful believer.. And I don’t think we’re just chase-ing

 
Dr. Dan said:
DJ also sitting Thursday
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Interesting, I thought maybe D. Johnson would return for Thursday night, but that will not be the case it seems. I do wonder if this will be only 2 games or more now...

Glad I have Chase.

 
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Good timing for me...with Lindsay and Breida not being reliable flex guys.

Tough matchup today and Im sure NO will be fired up with Brees returming.

 
sho nuff said:
Good timing for me...with Lindsay and Breida not being reliable flex guys.

Tough matchup today and Im sure NO will be fired up with Brees returming.
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Yeah, the match-up this week and next dampens the excitement. I am hoping he can at least catch a bunch of garbage time passes to pad the stats a bit. I am seeking a trade with the DJ team right now hoping I can get them to bite. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Yeah, the match-up this week and next dampens the excitement. I am hoping he can at least catch a bunch of garbage time passes to pad the stats a bit. I am seeking a trade with the DJ team right now hoping I can get them to bite. 
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I moved Chase to the DJ owner two days ago. I made an even swap for Tevin Coleman, being the Breida owner. I sold him on both of us locking down their respective RB situations.

 
I understand the scoring rules and roster makeup of each league will dictate the value of Edmonds, but what is fair compensation for him? He's at worst a flex moving forward. This is valuable insurance come playoff time and during bye weeks. We're halfway through the season but a lot can still happen. I was considering moving him to the DJ owner but looking at his roster, he has nothing, other than a WR1 that I may consider. I doubt people would give up a WR1 in a redraft for him and with the volatility of WRs in FF, it would be difficult to consider accepting anything less.

What are you guys looking for in return?

 
tricky92 said:
I moved Chase to the DJ owner two days ago. I made an even swap for Tevin Coleman, being the Breida owner. I sold him on both of us locking down their respective RB situations.
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Interesting. I think Tevin is a fair swap but I would I rather add something else and get a bigger target.

 
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