RB D’Andre Swift, CHI (1 Viewer)

[cdclopper]

What's everyone thinking with Swift and new improved Chicago offense ?

Ordinary because of his talent, but useful because of his offense and lack of competition. He's not a priority, but if he makes it to ~rb30 he makes sense.

RB30 is very low for a starting RB, maybe bellcow. Or perhaps it's about right. Idk.

There's 32 teams and majority of them will employee some kind of committee. Say what you will about Swift's skills, I won't argue with you, but based off the pre-season he's going to be a 60-80% snap share running back. As average as he has been in the NFL, the Bears don't have anybody else. Which is kind of sad.

 

[Chaka]

What's everyone thinking with Swift and new improved Chicago offense ?

Ordinary because of his talent, but useful because of his offense and lack of competition. He's not a priority, but if he makes it to ~rb30 he makes sense.

Personally, I'm bullish on Swift and I honestly, I am surprised his talent came into question. It's always seemed his issues were related to playing through pain. I don't know I have ever heard any questions about his skill.

Now that Brian Robinson has been traded it seems clear that Ben Johnson is comfortable with his RB room as is. Looking at the depth chart I see Roschon Johnson, Royce Freeman, Travis Homer, Brian Brittain and the rookie scatback.

Looking at that roster I expect Swift, who is getting $8 mil this season, to be heavily, heavily utilized. He played 16 snaps against the Chiefs and saw the ball 8 times.

I expect him to be pulled in short yardage, including goalline plunges, but he has a legitimate three down skill set and not much of a rotation behind him.

The Bears offensive tackles are questionable but they massively upgraded all three interior o-line spots and, on paper, they landed the most coveted offensive minded HC of, maybe the last three HC hiring cycles (a coach very familiar with Swift from Detroit).

IMO Swift feels like a safe floor guy who has big time upside.

FTR: Yes, I do have a potential bias, he ishl on my FBG League Uno team. I traded Jonathan Taylor and Jerry Jeudy for Ladd & Swift.

Few things in no particular order:

*Part of one's ability is their availability
*Rushing YPC over expectation (takes into account blocking, defensive front, etc) minimum of 90 carries 2024: D’Andre Swift was dead last in the NFL-0.69
*D'Andre Swift played for Ben Johnson in 2022 and net a career low in carries / game
*In that 2022 season he played behind the 9th best run blocking OL, ranked 1st in yards before contact per attempt, 19th in rushing YPC over expectation, and his best elusive rating of his career - 16th
*In 2023 in Philly he ran behind the 3rd best run blocking OL, ranked 4th in yards before contact per attempt, 37th in rush YPC over expectation, and his elusive rating dropped to 43rd - is it a coincidence this happened when he had 121 more touches?
*Then of course there's the infamous 2021 season when he was deployed as a committee back all season only to have circumstances thrust him into a feature role - he lasted a game and a half and the narrative you eluded to has followed him since

He's...fiiiiiiine. But no more than that. It'll take QB luck for him to do much more than the peak he's demonstrated to this point, which is an ordinary RB2 that can be a solid glue piece to navigate bye weeks when he's healthy, but he's not going to be a difference maker come December.

All fine points for sure. Personally, when it comes to metrics like "over expectation" I start to tune out. I think they are unproven, over hyped and designed to sell product.

Swift has been uneven and maybe he can't sustain a feature back workload. Then again he has also been available for 73 or 83 games (88%). Jonathan Taylor, who was drafted six spots after Swift, has seen 286 more touches than Swift over five seasons (57/season) has played in 67 of 83 games (81%).

Over the last two seasons Swift has played in 33 of 34 games with 529 touches, Taylor has played in 24 of 34 with 509 touches.

I AM NOT SAYING SWIFT>TAYLOR. IMO Taylor is the better RB. Full stop.

Just that the availability argument for Swift may be a little more myth than reality and maybe people should consider it more when talking about Taylor who may not be able to handle the workload he is being given.

 

[MAC_32]

What's everyone thinking with Swift and new improved Chicago offense ?

Ordinary because of his talent, but useful because of his offense and lack of competition. He's not a priority, but if he makes it to ~rb30 he makes sense.

RB30 is very low for a starting RB, maybe bellcow. Or perhaps it's about right. Idk.

There's 32 teams and majority of them will employee some kind of committee. Say what you will about Swift's skills, I won't argue with you, but based off the pre-season he's going to be a 60-80% snap share running back. As average as he has been in the NFL, the Bears don't have anybody else. Which is kind of sad.

I picked Pacheco and Swift at RB27 and 28 - Mason then Tracy went right after. Looking backwards the only RB's picked before him I wouldn't have are David Mongtomery, Aaron Jones, and both Pittsburgh RB's. Anyone else on your mind? That pick 75-80 zone (or ~90 in SF / 2 QB) is when I'm looking for one of these RB's, but I'm not particular which one. If healthy, all should be fine, and none should be great.

 

[MAC_32]

Just that the availability argument for Swift may be a little more myth than reality and maybe people should consider it more when talking about Taylor who may not be able to handle the workload he is being given.

Availability means more than just games played, for our game's purposes anyway - volume is king and he's not demonstrated he can handle a feature back workload. I understand why you isolated JT for example purposes, but what he did to finish 2024 is what separates dudes like him from guys like Swift. He's good for a banger or 2 early-mid season, but he peters out as the season progresses in every one since his rookie year.

 

[Chaka]

@MAC_32 to be clear, I am not dismissing over expectation and similar statistics, I am just hesitant to over apply them.

I try to think about what must be involved in calculating expectations on any given play and I have difficulty seeing a scenario where the calculations aren't driven by anything but subjective criteria.

The number of variables cannot be accounted for IMO.

They have value but I am not sure how much value.

 

[MAC_32]

@MAC_32 to be clear, I am not dismissing over expectation and similar statistics, I am just hesitant to over apply them.

I try to think about what must be involved in calculating expectations on any given play and I have difficulty seeing a scenario where the calculations aren't driven by anything but subjective criteria.

The number of variables cannot be accounted for IMO.

They have value but I am not sure how much value.

In a vacuum I don't disagree. In my mind there is little-to-no difference between 5th and...12th and the same is true between 25th and...32nd for any one advanced metric. When I use these data points it's to put together a larger picture. In Swift's case that larger picture aligns with both the eye test and how the NFL's valued him - he's ordinary. Monitor his usage and he can be perfectly adequate on all 3 downs in between the 20's.

 

[Chaka]

Just that the availability argument for Swift may be a little more myth than reality and maybe people should consider it more when talking about Taylor who may not be able to handle the workload he is being given.

Availability means more than just games played, for our game's purposes anyway - volume is king and he's not demonstrated he can handle a feature back workload. I understand why you isolated JT for example purposes, but what he did to finish 2024 is what separates dudes like him from guys like Swift. He's good for a banger or 2 early-mid season, but he peters out as the season progresses in every one since his rookie year.

I agree. I chose JT for two reasons: 1) I want to be open about about any potential bias I may have and 2) they were drafted so closely together, which makes them very good comps IMO.

I think I have been very clear that I think Taylor is a better RB.

The bottom line is Taylor has not been up to his workload the last the last two years. His timing was nice last year for sure (helped me win my main league) but it sure looks like he's being overused.

 

[Chaka]

@MAC_32 to be clear, I am not dismissing over expectation and similar statistics, I am just hesitant to over apply them.

I try to think about what must be involved in calculating expectations on any given play and I have difficulty seeing a scenario where the calculations aren't driven by anything but subjective criteria.

The number of variables cannot be accounted for IMO.

They have value but I am not sure how much value.

In a vacuum I don't disagree. In my mind there is little-to-no difference between 5th and...12th and the same is true between 25th and...32nd for any one advanced metric. When I use these data points it's to put together a larger picture. In Swift's case that larger picture aligns with both the eye test and how the NFL's valued him - he's ordinary. Monitor his usage and he can be perfectly adequate on all 3 downs in between the 20's.

No argument there. I think he's a little better than adequate but, I also view him as a three down guy who won't see a ton of short yardage stuff.

But, for 2025 he seems to be in one of the most secure positions for a RB. I see, literally zero competition for touches outside of workload management. I don't see a true 2 minute or six minute offense guy to steal opportunities, I don't see a better passing down option either.

The big knock, for me, is there are some bigger guys there right now (I should say "for now") in Roschon and Freeman who will probably get the short yardage stuff but, at his price point Swift looks like a great value.