As a Lions fan, I want Jamaal to see 175+ touches. I want our most talented back to still be healthy at the end of his rookie deal.It's almost like Lynn is trying to make Swift lose ADP so he can snag him late...Im still buying
Agreed. With all the effort that goes into a game plan, how often do NFL teams just say we'll "play it by ear".A former RB as head coach trying to foster competition and excellence in that room. Seems par for the course. Wish I could get him in the 3rd like a lot of people have been able to.
Carolinas WR3(Samuel) was better than any WR on Detroit by a wide margin.Mark Football said:. Just like McCaffrey was Carolinas only weapon
Passionate write-up. Curious though, are you a Lions fan?Mark Football said:Ok, I'm going to help everyone out here. You are going to want to get this guy, especially in dynasty. He is about to get huge. If there is someone worried about Jamal Williams/Gurley as being a threat to his production then great! You can get a discount. If not don't worry about it, pay the price. I see his path as that of McCaffreys. And yes I'm saying he's the next McCaffrey. They had the same amount of carries their rookie years but McCaffrey doubled Swift up in catches. In McCaffreys second year he had 100 more carries and 30 more catches. I see that for Swift easy. Then McCaffreys third year he reached 287 carries and 116 catches. Now I don't see that many carries but I do think 230 is reasonable to go along with 80 to 90 catches. McCaffreys tds went up from 7 to 13 to 19 in that span as well. I see an incremental increase for Swift in this department also, but tds are hard to predict. Plus Carolinas record got worse the better McCaffrey did. 11-5, 7-9, then 5-11. Which is good news because Detroit is awful. But Swift is Detroits only weapon. Just like McCaffrey was Carolinas only weapon. And their skill sets are the same. I'm excited. I hope this can convince some to invest in this guy. You won't regret it.
I think we should all listen to a guy who's last name is "Football".Passionate write-up. Curious though, are you a Lions fan?
He should have a podcast called " Football Talking Football ".I think we should all listen to a guy who's last name is "Football".
:subscribe:He should have a podcast called " Football Talking Football ".
I like it all but I'm seeing more Kamara if things go well then CMC. I think the carries is where he'll fall a little short, at least that would plan of Lions staff, just really think they are not trying to run him into the ground while they rebuild.Mark Football said:Ok, I'm going to help everyone out here. You are going to want to get this guy, especially in dynasty. He is about to get huge. If there is someone worried about Jamal Williams/Gurley as being a threat to his production then great! You can get a discount. If not don't worry about it, pay the price. I see his path as that of McCaffreys. And yes I'm saying he's the next McCaffrey. They had the same amount of carries their rookie years but McCaffrey doubled Swift up in catches. In McCaffreys second year he had 100 more carries and 30 more catches. I see that for Swift easy. Then McCaffreys third year he reached 287 carries and 116 catches. Now I don't see that many carries but I do think 230 is reasonable to go along with 80 to 90 catches. McCaffreys tds went up from 7 to 13 to 19 in that span as well. I see an incremental increase for Swift in this department also, but tds are hard to predict. Plus Carolinas record got worse the better McCaffrey did. 11-5, 7-9, then 5-11. Which is good news because Detroit is awful. But Swift is Detroits only weapon. Just like McCaffrey was Carolinas only weapon. And their skill sets are the same. I'm excited. I hope this can convince some to invest in this guy. You won't regret it.
Don't think I'm comfortable with an "only weapon argument". I'd rather see a diverse offense than a predictable one bound to lead to injury.Mark Football said:Ok, I'm going to help everyone out here. You are going to want to get this guy, especially in dynasty. He is about to get huge. If there is someone worried about Jamal Williams/Gurley as being a threat to his production then great! You can get a discount. If not don't worry about it, pay the price. I see his path as that of McCaffreys. And yes I'm saying he's the next McCaffrey. They had the same amount of carries their rookie years but McCaffrey doubled Swift up in catches. In McCaffreys second year he had 100 more carries and 30 more catches. I see that for Swift easy. Then McCaffreys third year he reached 287 carries and 116 catches. Now I don't see that many carries but I do think 230 is reasonable to go along with 80 to 90 catches. McCaffreys tds went up from 7 to 13 to 19 in that span as well. I see an incremental increase for Swift in this department also, but tds are hard to predict. Plus Carolinas record got worse the better McCaffrey did. 11-5, 7-9, then 5-11. Which is good news because Detroit is awful. But Swift is Detroits only weapon. Just like McCaffrey was Carolinas only weapon. And their skill sets are the same. I'm excited. I hope this can convince some to invest in this guy. You won't regret it.
https://twitter.com/32beatwriters/status/1402439993075945472?s=21NFL Beat Writers @32BeatWriters
“Not sure I’ve seen a defensive answer for either D’Andre Swift or Jamaal Williams in coverage. They’re both too smooth & too quick in their routes to handle. That’s a great sign for the offense,but also something def. coaches have to be hoping improves on their side of the ball”
In-house Lions beat writer Tim Twentyman reports D'Andre Swift and Jared Goff are "building a nice rapport, especially on option routes."
Per Twentyman, "Swift's ability to catch the football in space, put his foot in the ground, make one cut and then get to full speed in a couple steps stood out this week." We would hope Swift is looking good in padless practices, while we wouldn't expect someone employed by the team to report something negative. It is nevertheless important to remember the sky isn't falling in Swift-land after a spring's worth of panic over Jamaal Williams' role. This is going to be a two-man backfield, but play-maker Swift is still oozing upside in what will be a run-based offense.
SOURCE: detroitlions.com
Jun 12, 2021, 2:02 PM ET
Thanks for the post BL.
- Staley is on Swift's case a lot. In his grill, explaining to him what he's doing wrong, and again, praising JW during practice. There's a lot of that, it's a high energy, intense environment rn, very much unlike previous years OTAs. Like night and day compared to the prior regime. I'm not saying D'Andre can't do anything right, but as it stands right now, he's not drawing many compliments from the HC or AHC/RBs assistant.
I think that's a good call.Thanks for the post BL.
My impression of this part is that Williams is the coaches example of what they want their players to do and to be like. He is already there.
They have higher expectations of Swift so the criticism and coaching is all about trying to get him there. Jamaal Williams is already maxed out. Giving him a hard time isn't going to help him become a better player.
Fair enough. The point I was trying to make (and probably didn't communicate correctly) is that just because Swift may be the most talented weapon on the team, it doesn't mean that Lynn and Campbell will use him as much as fantasy owners would like.That is all fair to point out about the coach. Ballage is a terrible RB and some one else always deserves the ball more than he does. That said Ekeler not the best RB for those dive plays and I can sort of see why he might do that. Those plays do set up other aspects of the offense.
As far as rational coaching goes, the statement presupposes that we are rational or at least more rational than the coaches, and in Blooms case I think he has always been more of a go with your gut over data type of person. So its kind of funny coming from him. Its also arrogant to think we actually know more of the ins and outs of these teams better than their coaches do.
Oh of course.Fair enough. The point I was trying to make (and probably didn't communicate correctly) is that just because Swift may be the most talented weapon on the team, it doesn't mean that Lynn and Campbell will use him as much as fantasy owners would like.
The 2019 Chargers RB group led the entire NFL in PPR fantasy scoring in 2019.Think I’m steering away from Anthony Lynn. Could be wrong, but feel like Melvin Gordon (and his ill-advised holdout) is what discovered Ekeler, not Lynn. 2019, that offense was humming - Gordon comes back, grinds to a halt. Then last year...continued to fart around with lesser talents (Kelley/Ballange).
Just doubt there is parabolic upside here. Lynn caps it.
I think what limits Swift's upside is the fact that even if Williams were to get hurt, I think it's highly unlikely that Lynn would use him as a three-down back. I think he'd give someone else carries, no matter who that was or how ineffective they might be. As I said above, I do like Swift and will buy if the price isn't too high, but I do agree with TDW that his upside is capped, especially when you consider that the offense as a whole will be limited and is highly unlikely the reach the heights that the Chargers did.The 2019 Chargers RB group led the entire NFL in PPR fantasy scoring in 2019.
They were also third in 2018 and dropped to 10th last year which is not that bad considering Ekeler missed 10 games and the other RB's on the team are not much.
The 2018 and 2019 seasons the Chargers RB group went over 30 fantasy points a game, if you split that 50/50 between two RB's most years that would put both of them in the 10-15 range.
I'll take some of that cap.
I see this a lot. I drafted him in dynasty knowing he’d probably never be a super high volume back. I figured the passing game is where most of his value would come from, but he showed to be a good runner and was effective at the goal-line. I do think Jamal will get a decent amount of snaps and so I agree his ceiling is almost surely capped. I’ve always priced that into his value. In ppr leagues I still project him in the RB 10-12 range so still a RB1. Like any RB, he has his injury risks as well.I think what limits Swift's upside is the fact that even if Williams were to get hurt, I think it's highly unlikely that Lynn would use him as a three-down back. I think he'd give someone else carries, no matter who that was or how ineffective they might be. As I said above, I do like Swift and will buy if the price isn't too high, but I do agree with TDW that his upside is capped, especially when you consider that the offense as a whole will be limited and is highly unlikely the reach the heights that the Chargers did.
I see him in more of the 15-20 range, with guys like Sanders, Montgomery, Carson, CEH, and Dobbins (I'd put him at the top of that tier with Carson and CEH) but behind guys like Ekeler, Akers, Gibson, and Mixon. In any case, we're splitting hairs. I hear what you're saying that the limited usage is generally baked into his ADP and it's not hard to imagine a scenario where he's the RB10 or so. I'd just feel a lot better about him at the end of the 3rd than I would at the end of the 2nd/beginning of the 3rd.I see this a lot. I drafted him in dynasty knowing he’d probably never be a super high volume back. I figured the passing game is where most of his value would come from, but he showed to be a good runner and was effective at the goal-line. I do think Jamal will get a decent amount of snaps and so I agree his ceiling is almost surely capped. I’ve always priced that into his value. In ppr leagues I still project him in the RB 10-12 range so still a RB1. Like any RB, he has his injury risks as well.
Not sure James Robinson is going away or Etienne is that good, but appreciate the ranks. My gut says Swift disappoints as Jamaal Williams takes more of the workload than anticipated. Lion’s are finally “aware”…and know they are not going anywhere this season. This in my belief leads to more of a split backfield than what is expected.Interesting stuff talking about where Swift should be ranked compared to the other RBs. While 10 to 20 might seem like a pretty large variance we might not be talking about a difference more than 2 points per game here. 2 points per game is a difference between winning and losing, don't get me wrong but as far as projections go its a similar neighborhood.
I decided to try to rank the top 20 RB for the 2021 season just based on the order that I would select them and lets see where Swifts ends up.
CMC
Cook
Kamara
Taylor
Chubb
Elliot
Barkley
Etienne
Henry
A Jones
Swift
Dobbins
Gibson
Eckeler
CEH
Mixon
N Harris
Montgomery
Akers
Sanders
I may have forgotten someone. Almost forgot Barkley.
I bolded the 3 players who are my main targets for this season because of their price and upside to outperform ADP.
I dont think Robinson is going away either but I think ETN is too good for him to have much more action than William's will.Not sure James Robinson is going away or Etienne is that good, but appreciate the ranks. My gut says Swift disappoints as Jamaal Williams takes more of the workload than anticipated. Lion’s are finally “aware”…and know they are not going anywhere this season. This in my belief leads to more of a split backfield than what is expected.
RB33 (81 overall) at FantasyPros, but still being taken after several roster clogger turds (Fournette/Ronald Jones, James Connor, David Johnson) he should outperform.I was curious so I took a gander at current ADP info.
These are mock drafts but it looks like ETN is being massively under rated by the community who participates in these.
I mean these people are taking AJ Dillon and Devin Singletary before ETN.
Sorry thats very very wrong and I am going to take advantage of this as much as I can.
Yeah real drafts very different than the mock drafts.In FFPC dynasty startups ETN is going as RB16, Swift as RB8. In FBG redrafts ETN is going RB22 and Swift RB16. FWIW.
But yet not a top 32 back according to PFF. 1100 and 60 are closer to his ceiling. You can't put up 1500 and 85 in a 60/40 shared backfield.As a Lions fan, I want Jamaal to see 175+ touches. I want our most talented back to still be healthy at the end of his rookie deal.
As a prospective buyer in redraft, "we'll go with the hot hand" does not deter me. Williams is a good all around back who does a lot of things well, but D'Andre dwarfs him in the talent department. He'll be very efficient with his 250-275 touches this year and I feel pretty confident 1.3-1.4K 8 TDs and 65 receptions are his floor. Could easily see him approach 1500 and 85 (TDs are variable, who knows.)
I see Swift as better than all the tier 3 guys, but not quite the level of the tier 2 guys.RB33 (81 overall) at FantasyPros, but still being taken after several roster clogger turds (Fournette/Ronald Jones, James Connor, David Johnson) he should outperform.
I think James Robinson will still be the RB1 but I expect Etienne to produce in the same (or better) efficient manner Swift did as a rookie. He'll line up all over and be very active in the passing game from the start, and his rushing load will probably increase as the season goes along. But who knows with their HC, anything is possible.
WRT Swift, I have him in the 4th Tier:
Tier 1
RB1 Christian McCaffrey
RB2 Dalvin Cook
Tier 2
RB3 Alvin Kamara
RB4 Saquon Barkley
RB5 Derrick Henry
RB6 Ezekiel Elliott
Tier 3
RB7 Aaron Jones
RB8 Austin Ekeler
RB9 Nick Chubb (very unlikely I'll own him, everyone has him higher)
RB10 Jonathan Taylor (see above)
Tier 4
RB11 Joe Mixon (likely will be dropping lower over the summer)
RB12 Cam Akers
RB13 Antonio Gibson
EB14 D'Andre Swift (has the most upside in this Tier IMO)
Tier 5
RB 15 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
RB16 Najee Harris (will probably move him up over the summer)
RB17 J.K. Dobbins
RB18 Chris Carson
I know a lot of people will say Montgomery or maybe even Hunt belong in this tier but I'll be focusing on my WR2/3/4 after this list is depleted. Obviously no one can say with certainty, you have to adjust according to what's actually being taken, but my expectation for my redrafts is roughly 10 RBs will go Round 1 and another 4-6 in Round 2 and Round 3 each. If form holds, I want nothing to do with the running back dead zone we often see in Rounds 4-7 because you are better off taking WRs who hold more value in PPR.
Quite a few articles out there on the hit rate of drafting RBs versus WRs in Rounds 4-7. Google Is your friend. Basically, the opportunity cost of taking timeshare RBs in those rounds is missing out on consistent producers at WR. The replacement level RBs found in say back half of Round 7b and Rounds 8-10 are basically the same hit rate as the RBs people chase in Rounds 4-7a. In general, RBs ranked RB19-30 preseason hit about as often as the guys ranked RB31-42. The hit rate on WR13-24 and WR25-36 is much higher.
Again, don't get locked into a certain strategy, be flexible and react to what your leaguemates are doing on draft day.
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My expectation (and I've been drafting against the same guys for decades) is I'll take an RB in the 1st and *maybe* the 2nd if one falls, then load up on WRs. We start 3 WR and have a W/R/T Flex, 2 RBs, 1 TE, full PPR. If I get one RB who is getting 65% of the workload I'm always better off grabbing as many Top 36 WRs as I can find.
I also wait on QB and TE, bc I can always stream those or one will emerge on the WW. Never draft a K or a DST bc nobody knows who is going to be good for FF at those two in late August and the replacement level I find on the WW will produce as good or better than anyone I draft.
Yes, and I've been getting ETN in the 4th round of redrafts predominantly. Even snuck into the early 5th on me once.Yeah real drafts very different than the mock drafts.
Swift at 8 might actually be too high in my opinion but not by much.
RB 16 for ETN is much more reasonable than those mock drafts.
Thats good to know.Yes, and I've been getting ETN in the 4th round of redrafts predominantly. Even snuck into the early 5th on me once.
The link takes you to this thread.Waldman breakdown
Uploaded today Matt finds a few flaws in Swift’s Pass Pro and receiving skills but also highlights things he likes - good stuff
The link takes you to this thread.
Nitpicking at its finest.