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RB D’Andre Swift, CHI (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
The injuries are already piling up. He's not the biggest guy. He missed the first part of last season with some sort of hip/leg injury and then later got a concussion. That's on top of the shoulder injury he got in college.
He might be good this year in redraft but he just has a short term vibe about him in dynasty.
He might be good this year in redraft but he just has a short term vibe about him in dynasty.
zamboni
Footballguy
Hard to compare with Gibson because unlike Swift, he's pretty much got the backfield to himself. Both have the talent, but Gibson (at least right now) has the better situation/opportunity.
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Tanner9919
Footballguy
good fantasy RBs don't come from bad teams. Swift is up against it. Lions are awful. Downgrading the QB position from Stafford to Goff isn't ideal.
first time HC, new coaching staff of mostly first timers at coordinator positions. Lions history of ineptitude being worse than the Jets at everything they do. Jets being the gold standard of stupidity and fecklessness.but Detroit tops them and has for decades.
I'll have no piece of the Lions in 2021.
first time HC, new coaching staff of mostly first timers at coordinator positions. Lions history of ineptitude being worse than the Jets at everything they do. Jets being the gold standard of stupidity and fecklessness.but Detroit tops them and has for decades.
I'll have no piece of the Lions in 2021.
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zamboni
Footballguy
The Lions organization sucked for 60 years. That changed when Sheila Ford Hemp took over last year. Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes have put together an outstanding coaching staff, executed an excellent draft and are quietly building a damn good football team which is going to surprise people sooner rather than later.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Red Alert!!!
Just remember, Anthony Lynn couldn't identify that Justin Herbert was better than Tyrod Taylor last year.
Just remember, Anthony Lynn couldn't identify that Justin Herbert was better than Tyrod Taylor last year.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Good fantasy RBs do not come from bad teams for the most part. Just looked at a study done on FantasyPros, IIRC. They found that running backs on good teams have a much more likely chance to score highly than backs on bad teams.
Actually, here it is. Mike Tagliere wrote the article. His is the block of text I've quoted after the link. The chart is his, as is the analysis. The reason I've provided the link is that he also does so for receivers and tight ends in the article. This is just about running backs.
https://www.fantasypros.com/2020/07/what-does-team-scoring-mean-to-fantasy-football/
July 10, 2010
Fantasy Pros
"The research behind this study goes through the last eight years of data on the top 36 running backs and wide receivers, top 24 quarterbacks, and top 12 tight ends, which gives us a rather large sample size of 288 running backs and wide receivers, 192 quarterbacks, and 96 tight ends. This is based on a per-game basis, as injuries can severely impact fantasy outcomes at year’s end. I’ve also eliminated those who played in less than four games, as that small of sample size can skew the final results. Let’s go position-by-position, as the results were significant at certain positions.
RUNNING BACKS
RB Finish # of Players Top 6 Off. Top 12 Off. Top 18 Off. Top 24 Off. Bottom 10
Top-6 48 39.6% 70.8% 85.4% 95.8% 6.3%
Top- 12 96 32.3% 60.4% 76.0% 90.6% 11.4%
Top-18 144 29.2% 52.8% 70.1% 86.8% 8.8%
Top-24 192 24.0% 44.3% 64.1% 81.3% 23.4%
Top-30 240 22.5% 42.9% 62.5% 80.4% 23.8%
Top-36 288 22.9% 43.4% 62.2% 80.6% 25.0%
This chart tells a story, and it’s that team-scoring matters a lot to running backs. Let’s do the math here: There are 32 teams in the NFL. The top-12 teams make up just 37.5 percent of the league, yet somehow, 70.8 percent of top-six running backs have come from those teams. To simplify the information, a running back is twice as likely to finish as a top-six running back if he’s on a top-12 scoring offense.
Christian McCaffrey was the third player in the last eight years to finish as a top-six running back while on a team outside the top-18 in scoring, highlighting just how unrepeatable that season is/was. Him and Saquon Barkley are the only players over the last three years who’ve been able to crack the top-six while on a team that’s outside the top-15 scoring teams. Bottom line – if you’re looking for breakout elite production, start scoping out the high-scoring teams.
Even moving beyond the elite tier of running backs and extending it to the top-12 at the position, we say top-12 scoring offenses (again, just 37.5 percent of the league) produce 60.4 percent of the RB1s. If you can predict which teams will finish top-12 in scoring, you can likely identify which running backs should be in your first few rounds. Of the 96 running backs who’ve been RB1s over the last seven years, just 11 of them have come from bottom-10 scoring offenses. Players going near RB1 territory who I’m concerned about because of this include Austin Ekeler, Le’Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Melvin Gordon, and Josh Jacobs.
The primary takeaway from running backs is that team-scoring absolutely matters, and it should factor into your drafting process. If you know a running back is extremely talented but on a horrible offense, you must understand that it’s very unlikely he finishes inside RB1 territory, and even more rare for him to finish top-six at his position. A 6.3 percent chance, to be clear. If you’re on the clock and are left deciding between two running backs, go with the one who has the better quarterback, as his offense is likely to score more points. This process helped us find Aaron Jones and Chris Carson last year." - Mike Tagliere
Actually, here it is. Mike Tagliere wrote the article. His is the block of text I've quoted after the link. The chart is his, as is the analysis. The reason I've provided the link is that he also does so for receivers and tight ends in the article. This is just about running backs.
https://www.fantasypros.com/2020/07/what-does-team-scoring-mean-to-fantasy-football/
July 10, 2010
Fantasy Pros
"The research behind this study goes through the last eight years of data on the top 36 running backs and wide receivers, top 24 quarterbacks, and top 12 tight ends, which gives us a rather large sample size of 288 running backs and wide receivers, 192 quarterbacks, and 96 tight ends. This is based on a per-game basis, as injuries can severely impact fantasy outcomes at year’s end. I’ve also eliminated those who played in less than four games, as that small of sample size can skew the final results. Let’s go position-by-position, as the results were significant at certain positions.
RUNNING BACKS
RB Finish # of Players Top 6 Off. Top 12 Off. Top 18 Off. Top 24 Off. Bottom 10
Top-6 48 39.6% 70.8% 85.4% 95.8% 6.3%
Top- 12 96 32.3% 60.4% 76.0% 90.6% 11.4%
Top-18 144 29.2% 52.8% 70.1% 86.8% 8.8%
Top-24 192 24.0% 44.3% 64.1% 81.3% 23.4%
Top-30 240 22.5% 42.9% 62.5% 80.4% 23.8%
Top-36 288 22.9% 43.4% 62.2% 80.6% 25.0%
This chart tells a story, and it’s that team-scoring matters a lot to running backs. Let’s do the math here: There are 32 teams in the NFL. The top-12 teams make up just 37.5 percent of the league, yet somehow, 70.8 percent of top-six running backs have come from those teams. To simplify the information, a running back is twice as likely to finish as a top-six running back if he’s on a top-12 scoring offense.
Christian McCaffrey was the third player in the last eight years to finish as a top-six running back while on a team outside the top-18 in scoring, highlighting just how unrepeatable that season is/was. Him and Saquon Barkley are the only players over the last three years who’ve been able to crack the top-six while on a team that’s outside the top-15 scoring teams. Bottom line – if you’re looking for breakout elite production, start scoping out the high-scoring teams.
Even moving beyond the elite tier of running backs and extending it to the top-12 at the position, we say top-12 scoring offenses (again, just 37.5 percent of the league) produce 60.4 percent of the RB1s. If you can predict which teams will finish top-12 in scoring, you can likely identify which running backs should be in your first few rounds. Of the 96 running backs who’ve been RB1s over the last seven years, just 11 of them have come from bottom-10 scoring offenses. Players going near RB1 territory who I’m concerned about because of this include Austin Ekeler, Le’Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Melvin Gordon, and Josh Jacobs.
The primary takeaway from running backs is that team-scoring absolutely matters, and it should factor into your drafting process. If you know a running back is extremely talented but on a horrible offense, you must understand that it’s very unlikely he finishes inside RB1 territory, and even more rare for him to finish top-six at his position. A 6.3 percent chance, to be clear. If you’re on the clock and are left deciding between two running backs, go with the one who has the better quarterback, as his offense is likely to score more points. This process helped us find Aaron Jones and Chris Carson last year." - Mike Tagliere
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Good fantasy backs do come from bad teams if that back can catch and is in ppr. If you have a ppr back on a bad team they can be great.
Good data from Rock above. I don't expect top 6 from Swift, but also don't think Detroit will be bottom 10 in scoring. Their offensive line was 13th last year by PFF and should be better in 2021 with Sewell. Goff isn't terrible, especially when given time. Swift will be a challenge to grade come draft time.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This is great work rockaction thanks for sharing. Something I have wondered about at times but never bothered to dig into further. Thanks for doing that.
rockaction
Footballguy
Hey Biabreakable, I just found the article. Mike Tagliere of Fantasy Pros wrote it and compiled all the data. I'll make it more prominent up front. He's credited at the end.
eta* By" just found" it, I mean I read it what feels like ages ago. I just didn't add anything to his text or data. That's apparent now.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Ah I have read his work before! Good stuff. Thanks for sharing.
In regards to Swift where do we think the Detriot offense might be in 2021?
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facook
Footballguy
Bottom 10. Maybe bottom 5.
Better than Houston. Chicago if Dalton starts all year, NE if Cam starts all year, Jets with all their rooks...Detroit is in that group.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I don't know if they will be that bad. The north did not play good defense last season at all and I don't know if that is going to change much.
Just looking at some basic defensive and offensive stats Detroit was dead last in points allowed tied for last in yards per play allowed and the most 1st downs allowed.
Under these circumstances Detroit was 20th in points scored, 15th in yards per play 17th in first downs by passing and 8th in first downs by running. So a middle of the road offense.
Although Detroits defense will likely again be bad I don't know that it will be the worst again in 2021 and any improvement on that side of the ball should enable them to at least be an average offense I would think.
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facook
Footballguy
They may not be. Ultimately the crux of how good an offense the Lions have will come down to how much Goff actually relied on McVay to read the defense and get them in the right play. I'm of the opinion that Goff is a doofus and is going to fail horribly without that OC in his ear until :15 on the play clock. If I'm wrong, they could be middle of the pack with a strong run game and play action passing.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I added some information to my post above as far as where Detroit was as a defense and offense last season.
There are a lot of changes here though and I for one and not sure that Goff is an improvement over Stafford. I kind of doubt that he is. So that might be a downgrade.
facook
Footballguy
Yep, my opinion is HUGE downgrade, along with a significant downgrade at WR. O Line is better, so running game should be as well. But again if Goff is as bad as I think they will be awful. If he's quite a bit better than I think, they could be as good as mediocre.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Good stuff, but as a poker player I'm telling you those %s are huge.
So ~1/16 bottom 10 teams (6.3%) will have a top 6 RB if I'm reading this right. So perhaps every 3 seasons there will be 2 of these RBs.
If our expectations are tempered and we'd be happy with a top 12 finish then that is 1/9 (11.4%) so 1 relevant top 12 RB every year. That doesn't seem as ####ty to me as the article implies. Not great but one RB1 every year. And 2 or 3 (total) that are top 24.
I almost always favor better offenses when deciding between what I consider to be similar RBs. And if it is a truly crappy offense I often avoid, so it isn't like I disagree with the take here. But Swift is going to get 90+ targets. He has massive top 12 upside. And there is no lock that Detroit is a bottom 10 offense.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I was surprised to find that Detroit had the 8th most first down rushing the ball last season. I think that is a promising sign for Swift.
I tend to agree with you though that the QB and WR play wont be as good even though Golladay only played in 5 games last season, they did lose Marvin Jones who led their team in targets last year.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Yes to all of these. I was just weighing in on the side debate. James Robinson was RB4 Wks 1-16 last year in Half PPR. It happens.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Certainly a lot of question marks. New regime, new QB, cleared out all the talent from the WR room. Two journeyman on the outside and a 4th round rookie in the slot. Goff has been to more Pro Bowls than Stafford and won 3 playoff games in four years; 0 in twelve for Matthew. But everyone is convinced he’ll never play well again.
Strengths: Top 10 line with elite talent (3 first rounders), Hock, and Swift. #32 should see 80-90 targets and they’re committed to the run game, defense a/b improved but they’ll be playing from behind most weeks. I’m thinking 250-275 touches, and he can do a lot with his share of the load.
I’m hoping Jamaal gets 110-130 carries and catches 25-35 balls. He’s a good all around back and has a role.
Def two years away from being ready to fight for a playoff spot, Detroit is the most complete ongoing rebuild in the league. Not expecting them to compete but want to see them be a tough out.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Ironically enough one of the reasons I wasn't shy about blowing much of my WW budget on Robinson right before week 1 last year was because of how much I believed in a "better" Jax offense. Pfffft
facook
Footballguy
It probably warrants a thread of it's own: RB's from good Offenses vs RB's from bad Offenses.
There is definitely fodder here: good TEAM vs good OFFENSE. I think Cincy will radically improve, and I think once Burrow was lost Mixon was also "lost" so I am targeting Mixon cheap this year. They won't be a good TEAM but will be a good O. Chargers might be @ .500 but I want Ekeler. Aaron Jones is the poster child. WITH ARod he's top 8 or 9ish. Without ARod he's....what, low end RB2?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Thanks BL. Great to hear the home town perspective as you would know better than most of us.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I was thinking about this some more and I haven't looked up stats on this, but the Rams offense was at its best in large part because of them signing Andrew Whitworth and John Sullivan who are excellent pass protectors. Sullivan retired and they also let Saffold go in free agency and those downgrades along with Gurley not being his former self definitely had an effect on Goffs performance compared to prior to that.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
The decline of Gurley (2018-19 NFCCG onward) pretty much mirrors Goff going from young 2x Pro Bowler leading his team to the SB to looking fairly average. The popular narrative last season and this off-season is he only succeeded bc McVay would give him the read before the headset mic cuts out (15 seconds on the play clock.) Once DCs figured that out they started to disguise their looks and shifting late to confuse #16.
People acting like Jared is a no talent who won’t have a starting job after this year. He made very few splash plays last year. If you do a search on stathead.com (sorry no linky - subscription only) of QB plays over 40 yards last year, you’ll find not only did Goff have WAY LESS big plays, his percentage of big plays that were mostly YAC (short pass the WR turned into a long gainer) was much higher. He definitely lost his swagger over the last few years.
Is the reason bc he’s just not very good? That seems to be consensus rn. I’d venture that trading Cooks - who was often playing hurt in 2019 - also had a big effect. At any rate, whether he’s talented or not, the WR position group is a huge downgrade for him and for that reason alone it might be hard to see him excel the way he did in 2017 & 2018. There’s no alpha there atm; couple veteran journeymen, a 5th round second year guy who is thoroughly average, and a 4th round rookie who was the 17th WR off the board.
I know it’s the Swift thread but making a call on how effective Goff and the Lions offense will be in 2021 is a big part of the equation in trying to evaluate him. I think 1400 & 8 with 75 receptions is well within this range of outcomes. But there’s def a range of outcomes and I can see why people might not want him as their RB2 this year.
I’m buying but I’m the eternal optimist about the Lions.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
There is a really stupid little tidbit that has given me pause on Goff every since I came across it on Hard Knocks a couple years ago. They asked him whether the sun set in the west or the east and he didn't know. It's not that big a deal and I imagine lots of people nowadays don't know (that is sad), but the guy grew up in coastal California FFS. I've more or less hated him ever since. It's not fair but it's the truth.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
lol yeah I remember hearing that as well. Actually I remember several times watching games thinking I was wrong about him since then. I think he can bounce back in Detroit and agree the OL there is ready to help him do so.
Guy had a 36 on the Wonderlic and went to Cal-Berkeley
That is funny tho
Still, 36 isn't really anything special IMO, he majored in Sociology and didn't graduate*, and McVay was giving him the read 15 seconds before the mic cut off? Didn't know the sun sets in the west in California? Oy.
*I'm just kidding about that point, it's just funny to say it that way - true take without snark is I think he is better than people think. We'll see. I don't think he can be so bad that I'm worried about what will happen with Swift for FF. I think Swift is going too cheap right now so all I really see with Goff re:Swift is upside with a nice floor.
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
If we're going with Wonderlic scores & alma mater as a tiebreaker, we'll be taking Fitz as our QB1 and Wentz as the backup.
Among 2020 RB class:
- 30 - A.J. Dillon, Boston College
- 21 = Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin
- 21 = Clyde Edwards-Hellaire, LSU
- 17 = D’Andre Swift, Georgia
- 16 = J.K. Dobbins, Ohio State
- 12 = Antonio Gibson, Memphis
It's a terrible measure of success in the NFL, at best it might tell you a guy is functionally illiterate and might struggle with learning playbooks and systems (CJ Spiller and Vince Young come to mind.) Or identify a learning disability (Frank Gore.) Lots of guys with very average scores are incredible players. Brady, Rodgers, Stafford all had high scores (33/35/38), surprisingly Peyton was only 28. Very low correlation IME.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah that is ignorance on a level similar to that Miss America response about geography in 2007.barackdhouse said:
I don't remember that. I do remember hearing Greg Williams telling Jeff Fisher that Goffs throw looked like an NFL throw and I thought to myself, with these coaches he is doomed.
TZMarkie
Footballguy
barackdhouse said:
Let's be clear. Stupidity or lack of common sense is widespread/not just on the West Coast, and is found littered all across the USA.
Actually, in today's world, lets call it "lack of rudimentary intelligence".
All that said, you would think most NFL- ers know where the sun sets. Maybe he's not part of the "most" I'm referring to.
TZM
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I am thinking he maybe just had a brain fart at that moment which can happen to anybody.Let's be clear. Stupidity or lack of common sense is widespread/not just on the West Coast, and is found littered all across the USA.
Actually, in today's world, lets call it "lack of rudimentary intelligence".
All that said, you would think most NFL- ers know where the sun sets. Maybe he's not part of the "most" I'm referring to.
TZM
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TZMarkie
Footballguy
Sure.
And to be clear----- if I had that absolute smoke girlfriend parading around me like he did on Hard Knocks, I probably wouldn't be focusing on where the sun sets either.
TZM
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I do think spatial awareness is something that NFL players need to have but thankfully Goff does not play defense and is always pointed in the right direction unlike Jim Marshall.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
The ironic thing is that the easiest thing for a QB to do is dump it off to his swift RB.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I got interviewed by Balky yesterday for a pod that should release later this week and we talked about Hockenson/Swift/Goff a little bit. I'll tell you right now it isn't riveting. But we do talk Swift. And not Gibson BTW.
Sam Quentin
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
I could see buggering that East/West thing if my father hadn't repeated it incessantly since I was a child. Thank God he didn't transpose East and West like I always do. Can you imagine blurting out, with certainty, "The sun rises in the West and sets in the East"?
And the Wonderlic is hard. I've taken it. It's like the ASVAB. I sorta (sorta and just for comparison's sake) killed the LSAT and GRE, too, and found the Wonderlic much harder because it tests landed wisdom, and I didn't have much of that growing up as a child of the new curriculum in the '70s. The Wonderlic, of the three, was the most humbling. It's a weird thing. Scored all over the place on the ASVAB, too, IIRC, which is a weirder test of speed and older knowledge as well.
And the Wonderlic is hard. I've taken it. It's like the ASVAB. I sorta (sorta and just for comparison's sake) killed the LSAT and GRE, too, and found the Wonderlic much harder because it tests landed wisdom, and I didn't have much of that growing up as a child of the new curriculum in the '70s. The Wonderlic, of the three, was the most humbling. It's a weird thing. Scored all over the place on the ASVAB, too, IIRC, which is a weirder test of speed and older knowledge as well.
