mcintyre1
Footballguy
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RB D’Andre Swift, CHI (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Ilov80s
Footballguy
A. What do Kevin Jones and RBs in the Schwartz era have to do with Swift? We are talking multiple GMs, scouting departments and coaches.
B. Also this idea that Swfit would be a backup on every other team is silly. Swift was a really talented prospect. Off the top of my head, I feel confident he would be the best RB on
Raiders, Seahawks, Texans, Cardinals, Bears, Falcons, Jets, Ravens, Bills, Pats, Rams, Eagles, 49ers, Bucs, Chiefs and Dolphins.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
To summarize where I'm at on Swift...
Great Talent
Terrible situation, don't have much confidence in the offense, meaning not enough TDs.
Don't trust him to stay healthy
For these reasons I'm fading at ADP, but if he slides I'd consider him...he just doesn't seem to be sliding much.
Great Talent
Terrible situation, don't have much confidence in the offense, meaning not enough TDs.
Don't trust him to stay healthy
For these reasons I'm fading at ADP, but if he slides I'd consider him...he just doesn't seem to be sliding much.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
Per Mike Clay's Projection Article
- Lions have the 3rd most difficult schedule
- Lions forecasted to be the 3rd lowest scoring team
- Lions defense forecasted to allow the most points
- Lions second to last in team power rankings
Provided he stays healthy, he’s one of the highest floor RB’s in the league due to his pass catching ability. Dude averaged 14.9ppg in ppr across 13 games, and did so on a TOTAL of 160 touches. That’s 1.21 points per touch. Guessing that’s up there with the elites. Can anyone confirm?
Anyways, he’s by far their best weapon. Love the value this year.
Anyways, he’s by far their best weapon. Love the value this year.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Natural ability tends to have that effect.
You seem like a guy who avoids risk and leans leans strong into high floors over high ceilings ten times out of ten. That can't be fun.
My Link
TripItUp
Footballguy
How much of a ceiling can Swift have with what almost all experts expect to be one of the worst offenses...he's going to have to catch a #### ton of passes AND stay healthy to make up for the lack of TDs.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Are you old enough to remember Barry Sanders? I understand that is an extreme example. But…
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
^ Barry Sanders is a stretch, but you can definitely be a good RB on a bad team and still be productive. I don't think the teams McCaffrey has played on have been all that great, but he still manages to produce (heavily in the passing game). I got him in the middle of the 4th round in Redraft and was ecstatic people were fading him to that point.
Barring injury - I think he produces beyond a 4th round selection.
Barring injury - I think he produces beyond a 4th round selection.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Fading a talented rb due to situation and saying you'd pick them in the 6th round are 2 very different things. He'll get the touches including a lot of catches. Unless there's another good rb on the roster situation doesn't usually make that drastic of a difference. I mean who's being drafted around him? Jacobs, Sanders, James Robinson, you think those guys are better? There's a handful of rbs that don't have major questions, that's how it always is. Injuries are a big concern for most backs but if he's healthy he's a solid rb2.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
How can anyone know if he will stay healthy or if he won’t stay healthy? It’s an exercise in futility trying to analyze that.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
How many years will the fallacy that good fantasy RBs can’t come from bad teams be repeated on this board? Its been disproven annually.
Banger
Footballguy
even if Swift is in the top 1/2 of RB talent in the NFL (which he's not) given this info plus the loss of Stafford for check down Goff (Stafford>>>>>Goff) and the worst WR crew I've ever seen...they are going to struggle to get first downs let alone touchdowns.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Dave Birkett
@davebirkett
1hFantasy alert: Lions coach Dan Campbell said on
@971theticketxyt
this morning that RB D'Andre Swift (and DL Michael Brockers) will be ready to go Week 1.
Dave Birkett
@davebirkett
1h
Swift did not play this preseason because of a groin injury and several Lions coaches have said they were worried about his early season workload. That always seemed like a nudge to get/keep him on the field. Still, good news for Lions that Swift is trending towards good work
@davebirkett
1hFantasy alert: Lions coach Dan Campbell said on
@971theticketxyt
this morning that RB D'Andre Swift (and DL Michael Brockers) will be ready to go Week 1.
Dave Birkett
@davebirkett
1h
Swift did not play this preseason because of a groin injury and several Lions coaches have said they were worried about his early season workload. That always seemed like a nudge to get/keep him on the field. Still, good news for Lions that Swift is trending towards good work
YoUnG GuNz
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
Swift is right around 15 for me in terms of talent...definitely ahead of guys like Chris Carson.
I'm very high on Javonte Williams and Trey Sermon, so if they continue to show well I could see Swift not being in the top 15 conversation...particularly if he can't stay on the field. This is a big year for him even though he's still 22.
I'm very high on Javonte Williams and Trey Sermon, so if they continue to show well I could see Swift not being in the top 15 conversation...particularly if he can't stay on the field. This is a big year for him even though he's still 22.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
What were James Robinson or David Montgomery's ceilings last year?
If a guy catches passes, then a bad offense doesn't necessarily limit his ceiling.
That's not to mention offenses randomly overperform all the time. The Browns and Bills were both bottom 7 in offense in 2019 and no one really projected them to make much of a leap in 2020.
Banger
Footballguy
agreed...Hunt is in there, Sanders. Swift is a decent back in an awful situation with injury concerns.
Banger
Footballguy
If the Lions take a leap this year I'm retiring from FF. Yes, RBs can produce great results on bad teams but they need to stay healthy and be the bell cow getting the vast majority of all RBs snaps in all situations. I'm not confident Swift is that guy.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Stay healthy for sure, and I agree with you Swift seems like a risk there as he always seems to be dealing with nagging injuries even dating back to George.
Bell cow I'm not sure is so necessary. Gibson did get hurt last year but prior to that he was RB5 through week 12 of the NFL season on the NFL's 30th ranked offense.
Banger
Footballguy
sure, if Swift can get a boat load of TDs then he won't have to be a bell cow but again, on this offense I don't see him getting close to double digit TDs.
electric Ape
Footballguy
You seem to have a traditional view of RBs. Highly efficient modern hybrid backs (think CMC and Kamara) are less constrained by game script and less dependent on TDs. I’m not saying that good game scripts and getting red zone opportunities don’t help their outlook because they absolutely do, but being on a bad team is just less if a death knell for this type of back. And in your earlier posts you’re saying playing with a check down charlie like Goff is bad for Swift but lots of dump offs and short passes can be PPR gold. What’s bad for back that catches passes is not a QB that profiles like Goff, it’s a playing with a QB that tucks the ball and runs vs checking down.Banger said:
It’s too early to conclusively say what Swift is after just 160 NFL touches but based on his 2020 tape I think at minimum we can say that being an “Alvin Kamara lite” is within Swift’s range of outcomes. I didn’t see anything close to Kamara’s contact balance on Swift’s tape last year and Swift’s top end speed looked possibly a bit disappointing but I did see a back that was A) highly effective in the passing game and B) very nifty in short spaces, some of Swift’s cuts are incredible.
I think it’s a mistake to focus so much on situation with Swift, the real key to his outlook is his play and I found his 2020 tape to be not perfect, but encouraging. He is a very talented player
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Good point on check down charlie QBs being better forr RBs that can catch the ball rather than QBs who run.
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Banger
Footballguy
I've done this a long time and realize there are multiple routes to RB success and that there aren't hard and fast rules. I just don't have a lot of confidence that he'll justify the cost this year. I don't think they'll move the ball up and down the field so I think his TD opportunities will be limited, he only had 20+ touches once and he struggles with injuries. I've been wrong before and could be off on him but there are just too many flags for me to comfortable at his draft cost. I'm more comfortable grabbing a solid WR there and loading up on guys like Javonte Williams/Sermon type players later in the draft.
Banger
Footballguy
the Jets, Broncos, Bengals, Jags, Eagles, Niners, Lions and Falcons finished last in their divisions and the Jags, Robinson (7th) were the only team with a top 10 back. Sure it can happen but losing <> fantasy success.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
If Mixon and Mostert weren’t injured that would likely be different. Melvin Gordon was good in fantasy last year. Swift was very good last year once he got started. Nobody was counting on anyone on the Jets or Falcons last year - they had no talent at the position
I’m not sure you’re saying a lot without breaking it down more.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I mostly agree with your premise but I think it is worth noting Kamara's TD rate his entire career is off the charts. Kamara catches a lot of passes and has a high floor but it's the TDs that put him into the elite tier. Despite never rushing for 1000 yards in a season, he has scored a TD on 6.4% of his NFL carries. That is 2% higher than what Derrick Henry did last year in his incredible 17 TD season.
A lot of that was the function of playing on a consistently great Saints offense who know how to maximize Kamara's talent.
Dizzy
Footballguy
We're going to have to agree to disagree on this one. Lots of productive fantasy RBs have played on bad teams... some for most of their career. Especially the "three down" backs that catch a lot of balls. You pray for garbage time with these guys.
zamboni
Footballguy
I agree with this. Which concerns me a bit with the shift from Brees to Winston. And if Taysom gets in there, IIRC we saw a drop in Kamara’s production.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
zamboni
Footballguy
It's not nice to joke with us like that.
ETA: here's the full quote from Duce Staley:
Asked before practice if Swift will be on a snap count in his first live action since January, Staley joked, "I’m very bad at counting reps."
"If he’s out there being productive, 'What number is it Duce?' 'Three.' It could be play 49," Staley said. "I don’t know how to take (a productive running back) off. I get caught up in the game, he’s going to get caught up in the game and every good player, every good running back that I know, anyway, once you start feeling it, you don’t want to pull him off. We can count the reps Monday."
https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2021/09/09/detroit-lions-dandre-swift-injury-week-1-san-francisco-49-ers/8258061002/
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greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
I drafted Jamaal Williams. I'm hoping for week 1 they split carries to ease him in and Jamaal gets a few lucky bounces so I can flip him to Swift's team for something of value, maybe even Swift 
In PPR, I think he's easily top 20 for sure. Could use another solid RB2/ flex guy. Have to watch the games and see how this one shakes out.
In PPR, I think he's easily top 20 for sure. Could use another solid RB2/ flex guy. Have to watch the games and see how this one shakes out. 
strong
Footballguy
he played in 43 out of 43 games at georgia.
you might want to pump the brakes on that "injury prone" label.
zamboni
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah seems like an anonymous tip came in saying 2 men tried to rob Swift on July 4th and Swift shot and killed one of the robbers. Philly PD have said Swift is not being investigated for any crimes.
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
It's cool to have an RB that shoots bad guys but I'd rather his groin be ok.
