RB Dalvin Cook, DAL (4 Viewers)

[Bracie Smathers]

Hmmn, I wonder if Dalvin would be interested in being reunited with his former OC when both were with the Vikings when he led the league in rushing?
A coach who is in the playoffs and who lost his star RB in the 2nd game this year?
https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/12/16/vikings-run-game-dolphins-kevin-stefanski-mike-zimmer

https://www.vikings.com/news/kevin-stefanksi-offensive-coordinator-minnesota-vikings

https://www.startribune.com/vikings...nski-has-found-offensive-blueprint/564138772/
--------------------------------
When Nick Chubb was the starter the first two games the top rusher for the Cleveland Browns averaged exactly 106 yards per game.
The first 7 games after Nick Chubb went down the top rusher for the Cleveland Browns averaged 62.8 yards a game.
The last 7 games the team's top rusher has averaged 43.7 yards a game.
Hmmn, a playoff team, his former OC when he led the league in rushing, with an apparent need for a top RB?

First team that popped in my mind. I have zero idea how the relationship was when he left. Zero. Would be a decent fit if they left on good terms

Add, I 'think' the Browns have had success with another cast off from the Jets at QB this year if I'm not mistaken.

 

[Wingnut]

Four-time Pro Bowl RB Dalvin Cook will sign for the playoffs with the Baltimore Ravens; per his agency @LAASportsEnt

The Jets paid Cook $6.8 million this season and now he will get a chance to pursue a Super Bowl appearance with the Ravens.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1743029200057970881?t=gh93N1IC8PDMZ6KWWiH8Yw&s=19

 

[General Malaise]

Imagine the Ravens with an IN PRIME Dalvin Cook and Melvin Gordon toting the rock?

Would be neat if both guys scored in the playoffs.

Just a reminder that the shelf life of a RB is SHORT!

 

[IHEARTFF]

Pretty sure I did not post it anywhere but was thinking Ravens made a ton of sense

 

[irish eyes]

Did anyone actually watch him try to run this year, he's done.

 

[menobrown]

Did anyone actually watch him try to run this year, he's done.

He was really bad at the beginning of the season but I thought was starting to show a lot better on his limited chances later. Not easy getting into a groove on a new team with a crappy QB and OL on limited chances but I though he was coming around.

 

[rockaction]

I thought was starting to show a lot better on his limited chances later

We agree again. I've seen much worse in the way of talent hold down a job. If Zeke isn't totally cooked, then Dalvin isn't.

 

[NYRAGE]

I thought was starting to show a lot better on his limited chances later

We agree again. I've seen much worse in the way of talent hold down a job. If Zeke isn't totally cooked, then Dalvin isn't.

Cook just needs a little shove from the QB or a rocket strapped to his back to make that first move through the hole. Once he gets moving, he's not that bad. Hopefully he doesn't get Lamar killed the way he was "blocking" for the Jets.

 

[Bankerguy]

Any chance he plays this week?

How do we see this backfield playing out?

 

[General Malaise]

Any chance he plays this week?

How do we see this backfield playing out?

I've heard he isn't going to play. Also heard that since he's not playing, Baltimore doesn't have to pay him. The NFL pays players for the playoffs, so really, Baltimore has a free roll on him. Smart.

 

[Bankerguy]

Any chance he plays this week?

How do we see this backfield playing out?

I've heard he isn't going to play. Also heard that since he's not playing, Baltimore doesn't have to pay him. The NFL pays players for the playoffs, so really, Baltimore has a free roll on him. Smart.

Gonna be pretty hard to play in the playoffs cold with no work? No?

 

[FarFromHome]

Any chance he plays this week?

How do we see this backfield playing out?

I've heard he isn't going to play. Also heard that since he's not playing, Baltimore doesn't have to pay him. The NFL pays players for the playoffs, so really, Baltimore has a free roll on him. Smart.

Gonna be pretty hard to play in the playoffs cold with no work? No?

I don't think so. Not for a RB. If I were to guess, id bet they will give him 5 designed runs a game.

 

[travdogg]

Any chance he plays this week?

How do we see this backfield playing out?

I've heard he isn't going to play. Also heard that since he's not playing, Baltimore doesn't have to pay him. The NFL pays players for the playoffs, so really, Baltimore has a free roll on him. Smart.

Gonna be pretty hard to play in the playoffs cold with no work? No?

I don't think so. Not for a RB. If I were to guess, id bet they will give him 5 designed runs a game.

Its possible I'm being pessimistic, but I think he's likely behind both Gus and Hill. Might not even be active at all.

I think this was a risk free trial/insurance policy. Ala Fournette in Buffalo.

 

[FarFromHome]

Any chance he plays this week?

How do we see this backfield playing out?

I've heard he isn't going to play. Also heard that since he's not playing, Baltimore doesn't have to pay him. The NFL pays players for the playoffs, so really, Baltimore has a free roll on him. Smart.

Gonna be pretty hard to play in the playoffs cold with no work? No?

I don't think so. Not for a RB. If I were to guess, id bet they will give him 5 designed runs a game.

Its possible I'm being pessimistic, but I think he's likely behind both Gus and Hill. Might not even be active at all.

I think this was a risk free trial/insurance policy. Ala Fournette in Buffalo.

You could absolutely be correct. Hard to say.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Any chance he plays this week?

How do we see this backfield playing out?

I've heard he isn't going to play. Also heard that since he's not playing, Baltimore doesn't have to pay him. The NFL pays players for the playoffs, so really, Baltimore has a free roll on him. Smart.

Agree. He is a hedge against a fluke injury. The Ravens get to work him out for a couple of weeks and, if something freaky happens, they will activate him for their playoff game. He's behind Gordon (who has been there all season).

 

[FarFromHome]

Any chance he plays this week?

How do we see this backfield playing out?

I've heard he isn't going to play. Also heard that since he's not playing, Baltimore doesn't have to pay him. The NFL pays players for the playoffs, so really, Baltimore has a free roll on him. Smart.

Agree. He is a hedge against a fluke injury. The Ravens get to work him out for a couple of weeks and, if something freaky happens, they will activate him for their playoff game. He's behind Gordon (who has been there all season).

Gotta think the second be actually puts a ravens practice jersey on he passes Gordon on the depth chart.

 

[General Malaise]

Any chance he plays this week?

How do we see this backfield playing out?

I've heard he isn't going to play. Also heard that since he's not playing, Baltimore doesn't have to pay him. The NFL pays players for the playoffs, so really, Baltimore has a free roll on him. Smart.

Agree. He is a hedge against a fluke injury. The Ravens get to work him out for a couple of weeks and, if something freaky happens, they will activate him for their playoff game. He's behind Gordon (who has been there all season).

Gotta think the second be actually puts a ravens practice jersey on he passes Gordon on the depth chart.

I dunno, man. Ravens do things differently and Gordon did just score. Iirc, Gordon's issues in Denver had more to do with fumbles on a crappy team than physical decline. We just haven't really seen him much since they cut him.

Cook looked like he aged 10 years overnight for the Jets but he is a smart football player who can do a lot of things right and that's Ravens' football to a tee (sp?).

 

[travdogg]

Any chance he plays this week?

How do we see this backfield playing out?

I've heard he isn't going to play. Also heard that since he's not playing, Baltimore doesn't have to pay him. The NFL pays players for the playoffs, so really, Baltimore has a free roll on him. Smart.

Agree. He is a hedge against a fluke injury. The Ravens get to work him out for a couple of weeks and, if something freaky happens, they will activate him for their playoff game. He's behind Gordon (who has been there all season).

Gotta think the second be actually puts a ravens practice jersey on he passes Gordon on the depth chart.

I dunno, man. Ravens do things differently and Gordon did just score. Iirc, Gordon's issues in Denver had more to do with fumbles on a crappy team than physical decline. We just haven't really seen him much since they cut him.

Cook looked like he aged 10 years overnight for the Jets but he is a smart football player who can do a lot of things right and that's Ravens' football to a tee (sp?).

I wouldn't say he aged overnight. he's been on a clear decline since 2021.

His base stats have been very misleading as 1200 yards at 4.5 YPC sounds solid, but he was basically breaking a couple long runs that skewed it, and his advanced stats (such as yards over expected) were well below average.

This season has been very predictable in my opinion. Cook has been a bottom-3 RB in the NFL by almost any metric, in addition to having ball control issues this season. Truth be told, on an A-F scale, at this point Cook is probably a D-.

 

[Faust]

Free-agent RB Dalvin Cook remains confident ahead of next opportunity: 'I'm still that guy'

 

[ffmail4me]

Free-agent RB Dalvin Cook remains confident ahead of next opportunity: 'I'm still that guy'

 

[JohnnyU]

Free-agent RB Dalvin Cook remains confident ahead of next opportunity: 'I'm still that guy'

He’s delusional

 

[ffmail4me]

Free-agent RB Dalvin Cook remains confident ahead of next opportunity: 'I'm still that guy'

He’s delusional

He's one of the D's, either drunk, delusional, or dumb.

 

[JohnnyU]

Free-agent RB Dalvin Cook remains confident ahead of next opportunity: 'I'm still that guy'

He’s delusional

He's one of the D's, either drunk, delusional, or dumb.

Animal House - Fat, drunk and stupid

...is no way to go through life, son. From John Landis' 1978 film, "Animal House." Dean Wormer was played by the late John Vernon. The late Stephen Furst pla...

www.youtube.com

 

[massraider]

Just watched his 2023 carries.

Legs/speed is gone.

 

[brewer]

Just watched his 2023 carries.

Why?

 

[Loipz]

Just watched his 2023 carries.

Why?

Maybe on a smoke break. There wasn’t that many carries

 

[massraider]

Just watched his 2023 carries.

Why?

He's on a dynasty roster of a rebuilding team, and I thought maybe I might throw a late round pick at the owner, but maaybee I will dig up some YouTube first and eeewwwww

He's the same age as Kamara, but for whatever reason, has lost all his juice. There's a run for the Jets, at about 36 seconds, the corner is sealed off, not a defender in sight. Anyone running 4.55 or better has 20 yards, minimum. Cook didn't have the wheels, and you could tell he knew it.

 

[Hankmoody]

Offfer him to the Henry owner and hope for a moment of weakness

 

[travdogg]

Just watched his 2023 carries.

Why?

He's on a dynasty roster of a rebuilding team, and I thought maybe I might throw a late round pick at the owner, but maaybee I will dig up some YouTube first and eeewwwww

He's the same age as Kamara, but for whatever reason, has lost all his juice. There's a run for the Jets, at about 36 seconds, the corner is sealed off, not a defender in sight. Anyone running 4.55 or better has 20 yards, minimum. Cook didn't have the wheels, and you could tell he knew it.

Cook had been losing it for 2 years before the wheels finally fell off last year. All the signs were there though. The receiving especially fell off a cliff.

I think its 50-50 he's on a roster week 1.

 

[Biabreakable]

Just watched his 2023 carries.

Why?

He's on a dynasty roster of a rebuilding team, and I thought maybe I might throw a late round pick at the owner, but maaybee I will dig up some YouTube first and eeewwwww

He's the same age as Kamara, but for whatever reason, has lost all his juice. There's a run for the Jets, at about 36 seconds, the corner is sealed off, not a defender in sight. Anyone running 4.55 or better has 20 yards, minimum. Cook didn't have the wheels, and you could tell he knew it.

I am a huge fan of Cook but I agree with your observations here. He just doesn't seem to have that burst and acceleration he used to have.

The example you give makes that obvious. Cook should be able to beat the defender to the corner but he doesn't. He doesn't even really try. Instead he sets up to try to sidestep the tackle attempt.

It's very apparent to me on some of the inside runs as well. He used to be able to hit those creases and get to the 2nd level.

 

[Tau837]

Just watched his 2023 carries.

Why?

He's on a dynasty roster of a rebuilding team, and I thought maybe I might throw a late round pick at the owner, but maaybee I will dig up some YouTube first and eeewwwww

He's the same age as Kamara, but for whatever reason, has lost all his juice. There's a run for the Jets, at about 36 seconds, the corner is sealed off, not a defender in sight. Anyone running 4.55 or better has 20 yards, minimum. Cook didn't have the wheels, and you could tell he knew it.

Cook had been losing it for 2 years before the wheels finally fell off last year. All the signs were there though. The receiving especially fell off a cliff.

I think its 50-50 he's on a roster week 1.

Given his years in the NFL, isn't it true that his full season salary is guaranteed if he is on a roster for week 1? If true, I suspect it is less than 50%, unless he is willing to take a minimum salary with incentives, minimizing the dead cap if the team releases him after week 1.

 

[Faust]

Free-agent RB Dalvin Cook hopes to join team for training camp: 'I'm ready to roll'

 

[FarFromHome]

This thread got bumped and people will click on it thinking we have new info. We don't.

I just wanted to say I think we have one landing spot that would give him a tiny value. Have people seen the practice videos of Zeke? He has to be better then that? Right? Or is the consensus he is just done? I will say more then any position when the rb career is over it comes fast. Shaun Alexander comes to mind. Maybe I'm just trying to something for nothing. Is fantasy nerds always love something for nothing. Ha ha

 

[Gerghaus]

This thread got bumped and people will click on it thinking we have new info. We don't.

I just wanted to say I think we have one landing spot that would give him a tiny value. Have people seen the practice videos of Zeke? He has to be better then that? Right? Or is the consensus he is just done? I will say more then any position when the rb career is over it comes fast. Shaun Alexander comes to mind. Maybe I'm just trying to something for nothing. Is fantasy nerds always love something for nothing. Ha ha

He's done. The end of the road happens fast for RB's. Alexander is just one of many that disappeared overnight.

 

[Anarchy99]

Here's how different the RB landscape is going back only TWO YEARS AGO . . .

01 - Ekeler (LAC) - Now with WAS. Current ADP RB31.
02 - CMC (SFO) - Still lighting it up in SFO. ADP RB1.
03 - Jacobs (LVR) - Now with GBP. Current ADP RB12.
04 - Henry (BAL) - Now with BAL. Current ADP RB8.
05 - Barkley (NYG) - Now with PHI. ADP RB6.
06 - Chubb (CLE) - Currently rehabbing. Return date unknown. ADP RB35.
07 - Jones (GBP) - Now with MIN. ADP RB18.
08 - Stevenson (NE) - ADP RB20.
09 - Pollard (DAL) - Now with TEN. ADP RB29.
10 - Cook (MIN) - Unsigned / free agent.
11 - Mixon (CIN) - Now with HOU. ADP RB15.
12 - Harris (PIT) - ADP RB24.
13 - Williams (DET) - Now with NOS. ADP RB80.
14 - Fournette (TBB) - Unsigned / free agent.
15 - Sanders (PHI) - Now with CAR. ADP RB75.

Of the Top 15 RB from 2022, only 4 are on the same team, only 5 are still considered Top 15 RB, and 7 of them are no longer thought to be Top 25 RB.

 

[pinkstapler]

Here's how different the RB landscape is going back only TWO YEARS AGO . . .

01 - Ekeler (LAC) - Now with WAS. Current ADP RB31.
02 - CMC (SFO) - Still lighting it up in SFO. ADP RB1.
03 - Jacobs (LVR) - Now with GBP. Current ADP RB12.
04 - Henry (BAL) - Now with BAL. Current ADP RB8.
05 - Barkley (NYG) - Now with PHI. ADP RB6.
06 - Chubb (CLE) - Currently rehabbing. Return date unknown. ADP RB35.
07 - Jones (GBP) - Now with MIN. ADP RB18.
08 - Stevenson (NE) - ADP RB20.
09 - Pollard (DAL) - Now with TEN. ADP RB29.
10 - Cook (MIN) - Unsigned / free agent.
11 - Mixon (CIN) - Now with HOU. ADP RB15.
12 - Harris (PIT) - ADP RB24.
13 - Williams (DET) - Now with NOS. ADP RB80.
14 - Fournette (TBB) - Unsigned / free agent.
15 - Sanders (PHI) - Now with CAR. ADP RB75.

Of the Top 15 RB from 2022, only 4 are on the same team, only 5 are still considered Top 15 RB, and 7 of them are no longer thought to be Top 25 RB.

In other words, unless they are Barkley/Hall/Bijan level elite, probably not worth investing a high dynasty pick in RB? Feels like the not only is the life span shorter, but the misses are bigger. Look how many in that top 15 weren't even 1st round dynasty picks to begin with.

Appreciate this breakdown. It's one of those things that despite "knowing", it's still shocking to see written out like this.

 

[travdogg]

This thread got bumped and people will click on it thinking we have new info. We don't.

I just wanted to say I think we have one landing spot that would give him a tiny value. Have people seen the practice videos of Zeke? He has to be better then that? Right? Or is the consensus he is just done? I will say more then any position when the rb career is over it comes fast. Shaun Alexander comes to mind. Maybe I'm just trying to something for nothing. Is fantasy nerds always love something for nothing. Ha ha

Zeke>Cook at this point. Zeke can still block and catch, Cook hasn't shown he can. I don't think Cook would make the roster over Dowdle/Freeman.

I think the best (and really only realistic) scenario for Cook is getting a backup spot behind an elite RB, with spotty backups, for the vet minimum. Somewhere like Indy behind Taylor to COMPETE with Trey Sermon and Evan Hull.

 

[KellysHeroes]

droppable

 

[Ilov80s]

Here's how different the RB landscape is going back only TWO YEARS AGO . . .

01 - Ekeler (LAC) - Now with WAS. Current ADP RB31.
02 - CMC (SFO) - Still lighting it up in SFO. ADP RB1.
03 - Jacobs (LVR) - Now with GBP. Current ADP RB12.
04 - Henry (BAL) - Now with BAL. Current ADP RB8.
05 - Barkley (NYG) - Now with PHI. ADP RB6.
06 - Chubb (CLE) - Currently rehabbing. Return date unknown. ADP RB35.
07 - Jones (GBP) - Now with MIN. ADP RB18.
08 - Stevenson (NE) - ADP RB20.
09 - Pollard (DAL) - Now with TEN. ADP RB29.
10 - Cook (MIN) - Unsigned / free agent.
11 - Mixon (CIN) - Now with HOU. ADP RB15.
12 - Harris (PIT) - ADP RB24.
13 - Williams (DET) - Now with NOS. ADP RB80.
14 - Fournette (TBB) - Unsigned / free agent.
15 - Sanders (PHI) - Now with CAR. ADP RB75.

Of the Top 15 RB from 2022, only 4 are on the same team, only 5 are still considered Top 15 RB, and 7 of them are no longer thought to be Top 25 RB.

In other words, unless they are Barkley/Hall/Bijan level elite, probably not worth investing a high dynasty pick in RB? Feels like the not only is the life span shorter, but the misses are bigger. Look how many in that top 15 weren't even 1st round dynasty picks to begin with.

Appreciate this breakdown. It's one of those things that despite "knowing", it's still shocking to see written out like this.

If you mean in a dynasty start-up, I would mostly agree. If we are talking rookie drafts, I think players who spent high rookie picks on Dalvin, Mixon, Chubb, Jacobs, Henry, ETN, Walker are happy with their picks. The shelf life is for sure less but also a higher chance of getting a real difference maker for single season runs. Jonathan Taylor is a good example. He has missed some time and it's been frustrating but when he plays, he is significantly improving your chances of winning,

As to so many of the top scorers not being 1st roud picks, the 2022 top WR scorers saw Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Amon Ra, Lockett and McLaurin all finish as top 15 ppr scorers. I don't believe any of those guys were being taken 1st round in their rookie drafts.

 

[rockaction]

In other words, unless they are Barkley/Hall/Bijan level elite, probably not worth investing a high dynasty pick in RB? Feels like the not only is the life span shorter, but the misses are bigger. Look how many in that top 15 weren't even 1st round dynasty picks to begin with.

Appreciate this breakdown. It's one of those things that despite "knowing", it's still shocking to see written out like this.

It’s nice research but a slightly arbitrary cut-off. Conner and Kamara were 16 and 17, and there were others like Etienne and Walker, who were 18th and 20th. Breece Hall would have easily been a top ten guy but tore his ACL. David Montgomery was 24th, and D. Singletary, Swift, Mostert, were 22, 24, and 25 respectively.

The top fifteen that year might have been an outlier.

 

[Anarchy99]

The top fifteen that year might have been an outlier.

Fine. Let's go back one more season and expand the window to the Top 30 instead.

Top 30 RBs from 2021:
01 - Taylor (IND) - ADP RB5
02 - Ekeler (LAC) - Now with WAS. Current ADP RB31.
03 - Harris (PIT) - ADP RB24.
04 - Mixon (CIN) - Now with HOU. ADP RB15.
05 - Conner (ARI) - ADP RB21.
06 - Fournette (TBB) - Unsigned / free agent.
07 - Elliott (DAL) - ADP RB39.
08 - Gibson (WAS) - Now with NEP. ADP RB50.
09 - Kamara (NOS) - ADP RB16.
10 - Patterson (ATL) - Now with PIT. ADP RB108
11 - Jones (GBP) - Now with MIN. ADP RB18.
12 - Jacobs (LVR) - Now with GBP. Current ADP RB12.
13 - Chubb (CLE) - Currently rehabbing. Return date unknown. ADP RB35.
14 - Harris (NEP) - Retired.
15 - Swift (DET) - Now with CHI. ADP RB23.
16 - Cook (MIN) - Unsigned / free agent.
17 - Williams (DEN) - ADP RB30.
18 - Gordon (DEN) - Unsigned / free agent.
19 - Singletary (BUF) - Now with NYG. ADP RB34.
20 - Montgomery (CHI) - Now with DET. ADP RB19.
21 - Williams (KCC) - Unsigned / free agent.
22 - Henry (TEN) - Now with BAL. Current ADP RB8.
23 - Dillon (GBP) - ADP RB67.
24 - Robinson (JAC) - Now with NOS. ADP not in Top 114 RBs.
25 - Gaskin (MIA) - Now with MIN. ADP not in Top 114 RBs.
26 - Mitchell (SFO) - ADP RB58.
27 - Henderson (LAR) - Unsigned / free agent.
28 - Pollard (DAL) - Now with TEN. ADP RB29.
29 - Carter (NYJ) - Now with ARI. ADP RB105.
30 - Barkley (NYG) - Now with PHI. ADP RB6.

Updated summary: Only 9 guys are on the same team, only 4 guys are still considered Top 15 RBs, with 19 of them no longer ranked in the Top 25. The lifespan for RBs generally has getting shorter, there are fewer of them that stay relevant past 30 (now maybe even 28), and they still get dinged and miss time. Not sure there is much fantasy owners can do about that part. Fantasy teams still need to roll out RBs in their starting lineups, and you still need RB scoring to win. That doesn't necessarily mean RBs aren't good, it just means they can miss a lot of time.

 

[rockaction]

Fine. Let's go back one more season and expand the window to the Top 30 instead.

Yep. I don’t think anybody would argue with your premises as you just listed them. The only thing constant at RB is change.

 

[pinkstapler]

Here's how different the RB landscape is going back only TWO YEARS AGO . . .

01 - Ekeler (LAC) - Now with WAS. Current ADP RB31.
02 - CMC (SFO) - Still lighting it up in SFO. ADP RB1.
03 - Jacobs (LVR) - Now with GBP. Current ADP RB12.
04 - Henry (BAL) - Now with BAL. Current ADP RB8.
05 - Barkley (NYG) - Now with PHI. ADP RB6.
06 - Chubb (CLE) - Currently rehabbing. Return date unknown. ADP RB35.
07 - Jones (GBP) - Now with MIN. ADP RB18.
08 - Stevenson (NE) - ADP RB20.
09 - Pollard (DAL) - Now with TEN. ADP RB29.
10 - Cook (MIN) - Unsigned / free agent.
11 - Mixon (CIN) - Now with HOU. ADP RB15.
12 - Harris (PIT) - ADP RB24.
13 - Williams (DET) - Now with NOS. ADP RB80.
14 - Fournette (TBB) - Unsigned / free agent.
15 - Sanders (PHI) - Now with CAR. ADP RB75.

Of the Top 15 RB from 2022, only 4 are on the same team, only 5 are still considered Top 15 RB, and 7 of them are no longer thought to be Top 25 RB.

In other words, unless they are Barkley/Hall/Bijan level elite, probably not worth investing a high dynasty pick in RB? Feels like the not only is the life span shorter, but the misses are bigger. Look how many in that top 15 weren't even 1st round dynasty picks to begin with.

Appreciate this breakdown. It's one of those things that despite "knowing", it's still shocking to see written out like this.

If you mean in a dynasty start-up, I would mostly agree. If we are talking rookie drafts, I think players who spent high rookie picks on Dalvin, Mixon, Chubb, Jacobs, Henry, ETN, Walker are happy with their picks. The shelf life is for sure less but also a higher chance of getting a real difference maker for single season runs. Jonathan Taylor is a good example. He has missed some time and it's been frustrating but when he plays, he is significantly improving your chances of winning,

As to so many of the top scorers not being 1st roud picks, the 2022 top WR scorers saw Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Amon Ra, Lockett and McLaurin all finish as top 15 ppr scorers. I don't believe any of those guys were being taken 1st round in their rookie drafts.

Yeah that's fair. I used the dreaded word "elite" when I really shouldn't have. Realistically, to me at least, most years there are 1-2 RBs who feel worth that first round draft pick; maybe another one squeeks in the end of the 1st round pending some good circumstances or a weaker WR class. But outside that, it feels like the percentages lean towards a better outcome when taking a WR. Obviously can point out outliers, and seeing that everyone's evaluation process is different, MMV.

Over the past 4-5 years (small sample size for sure), I've had a lot better luck putting higher draft stock into WR, and taking a scattershot approach at RB through the mid rounds. Also has felt easier to trade for RBs in recent years. Not top ones of course; but when I've identified a few guys I like and maybe miss on, or was just late on, it's been relatively cheap buying guys like Mattison, Pollard, Rhamondre, Kyren, most 49ers back ups haha. Plenty of less successful guys I've added to various teams too of course. But at the low cost, it doesn't feel team breaking to miss. And sometimes all you really need is that RB2/3 plug in for 8-10 points to carry you if the rest of your team is stacked. No name backups at RB also feel more likely to get a chance, and better odds to produce to me over no name backups at WR too when injuries start popping up.

 

[Ilov80s]

Here's how different the RB landscape is going back only TWO YEARS AGO . . .

01 - Ekeler (LAC) - Now with WAS. Current ADP RB31.
02 - CMC (SFO) - Still lighting it up in SFO. ADP RB1.
03 - Jacobs (LVR) - Now with GBP. Current ADP RB12.
04 - Henry (BAL) - Now with BAL. Current ADP RB8.
05 - Barkley (NYG) - Now with PHI. ADP RB6.
06 - Chubb (CLE) - Currently rehabbing. Return date unknown. ADP RB35.
07 - Jones (GBP) - Now with MIN. ADP RB18.
08 - Stevenson (NE) - ADP RB20.
09 - Pollard (DAL) - Now with TEN. ADP RB29.
10 - Cook (MIN) - Unsigned / free agent.
11 - Mixon (CIN) - Now with HOU. ADP RB15.
12 - Harris (PIT) - ADP RB24.
13 - Williams (DET) - Now with NOS. ADP RB80.
14 - Fournette (TBB) - Unsigned / free agent.
15 - Sanders (PHI) - Now with CAR. ADP RB75.

Of the Top 15 RB from 2022, only 4 are on the same team, only 5 are still considered Top 15 RB, and 7 of them are no longer thought to be Top 25 RB.

In other words, unless they are Barkley/Hall/Bijan level elite, probably not worth investing a high dynasty pick in RB? Feels like the not only is the life span shorter, but the misses are bigger. Look how many in that top 15 weren't even 1st round dynasty picks to begin with.

Appreciate this breakdown. It's one of those things that despite "knowing", it's still shocking to see written out like this.

If you mean in a dynasty start-up, I would mostly agree. If we are talking rookie drafts, I think players who spent high rookie picks on Dalvin, Mixon, Chubb, Jacobs, Henry, ETN, Walker are happy with their picks. The shelf life is for sure less but also a higher chance of getting a real difference maker for single season runs. Jonathan Taylor is a good example. He has missed some time and it's been frustrating but when he plays, he is significantly improving your chances of winning,

As to so many of the top scorers not being 1st roud picks, the 2022 top WR scorers saw Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Amon Ra, Lockett and McLaurin all finish as top 15 ppr scorers. I don't believe any of those guys were being taken 1st round in their rookie drafts.

Yeah that's fair. I used the dreaded word "elite" when I really shouldn't have. Realistically, to me at least, most years there are 1-2 RBs who feel worth that first round draft pick; maybe another one squeeks in the end of the 1st round pending some good circumstances or a weaker WR class. But outside that, it feels like the percentages lean towards a better outcome when taking a WR. Obviously can point out outliers, and seeing that everyone's evaluation process is different, MMV.

Over the past 4-5 years (small sample size for sure), I've had a lot better luck putting higher draft stock into WR, and taking a scattershot approach at RB through the mid rounds. Also has felt easier to trade for RBs in recent years. Not top ones of course; but when I've identified a few guys I like and maybe miss on, or was just late on, it's been relatively cheap buying guys like Mattison, Pollard, Rhamondre, Kyren, most 49ers back ups haha. Plenty of less successful guys I've added to various teams too of course. But at the low cost, it doesn't feel team breaking to miss. And sometimes all you really need is that RB2/3 plug in for 8-10 points to carry you if the rest of your team is stacked. No name backups at RB also feel more likely to get a chance, and better odds to produce to me over no name backups at WR too when injuries start popping up.

I think you are generally right with the caveat of these are really small samples and each class is different. But definitely a big lesson that RB ranks can change real fast. Najee vs ETN after Y1 vs now is a big example. Tony Pollard from August 23 to now is another. And those examples are separate from guys like Javonte who suffer horrible injuries or Dalvin who just soft of age out.

 

[pinkstapler]

Here's how different the RB landscape is going back only TWO YEARS AGO . . .

01 - Ekeler (LAC) - Now with WAS. Current ADP RB31.
02 - CMC (SFO) - Still lighting it up in SFO. ADP RB1.
03 - Jacobs (LVR) - Now with GBP. Current ADP RB12.
04 - Henry (BAL) - Now with BAL. Current ADP RB8.
05 - Barkley (NYG) - Now with PHI. ADP RB6.
06 - Chubb (CLE) - Currently rehabbing. Return date unknown. ADP RB35.
07 - Jones (GBP) - Now with MIN. ADP RB18.
08 - Stevenson (NE) - ADP RB20.
09 - Pollard (DAL) - Now with TEN. ADP RB29.
10 - Cook (MIN) - Unsigned / free agent.
11 - Mixon (CIN) - Now with HOU. ADP RB15.
12 - Harris (PIT) - ADP RB24.
13 - Williams (DET) - Now with NOS. ADP RB80.
14 - Fournette (TBB) - Unsigned / free agent.
15 - Sanders (PHI) - Now with CAR. ADP RB75.

Of the Top 15 RB from 2022, only 4 are on the same team, only 5 are still considered Top 15 RB, and 7 of them are no longer thought to be Top 25 RB.

In other words, unless they are Barkley/Hall/Bijan level elite, probably not worth investing a high dynasty pick in RB? Feels like the not only is the life span shorter, but the misses are bigger. Look how many in that top 15 weren't even 1st round dynasty picks to begin with.

Appreciate this breakdown. It's one of those things that despite "knowing", it's still shocking to see written out like this.

If you mean in a dynasty start-up, I would mostly agree. If we are talking rookie drafts, I think players who spent high rookie picks on Dalvin, Mixon, Chubb, Jacobs, Henry, ETN, Walker are happy with their picks. The shelf life is for sure less but also a higher chance of getting a real difference maker for single season runs. Jonathan Taylor is a good example. He has missed some time and it's been frustrating but when he plays, he is significantly improving your chances of winning,

As to so many of the top scorers not being 1st roud picks, the 2022 top WR scorers saw Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Amon Ra, Lockett and McLaurin all finish as top 15 ppr scorers. I don't believe any of those guys were being taken 1st round in their rookie drafts.

Yeah that's fair. I used the dreaded word "elite" when I really shouldn't have. Realistically, to me at least, most years there are 1-2 RBs who feel worth that first round draft pick; maybe another one squeeks in the end of the 1st round pending some good circumstances or a weaker WR class. But outside that, it feels like the percentages lean towards a better outcome when taking a WR. Obviously can point out outliers, and seeing that everyone's evaluation process is different, MMV.

Over the past 4-5 years (small sample size for sure), I've had a lot better luck putting higher draft stock into WR, and taking a scattershot approach at RB through the mid rounds. Also has felt easier to trade for RBs in recent years. Not top ones of course; but when I've identified a few guys I like and maybe miss on, or was just late on, it's been relatively cheap buying guys like Mattison, Pollard, Rhamondre, Kyren, most 49ers back ups haha. Plenty of less successful guys I've added to various teams too of course. But at the low cost, it doesn't feel team breaking to miss. And sometimes all you really need is that RB2/3 plug in for 8-10 points to carry you if the rest of your team is stacked. No name backups at RB also feel more likely to get a chance, and better odds to produce to me over no name backups at WR too when injuries start popping up.

I think you are generally right with the caveat of these are really small samples and each class is different. But definitely a big lesson that RB ranks can change real fast. Najee vs ETN after Y1 vs now is a big example. Tony Pollard from August 23 to now is another.

Yeah I've had some luck churning and burning these guys. Was able to get out from under most of them at a solid value gain; Pollard, Mattison, Kyren (we'll see if I should have held another year). Only one I'm still holding is Rhamondre who I actually drafted myself, but it was a later pick and I still have some hope for him to be a solid RB2/3 for a couple more seasons. This year the end of a lot of my dynasty benches are filled with cheap guys like Vidal, Irving, Guerendo, Laube; with last years cheap guys who jumped up in value Zack Moss and Zamir White looking like they can help float me now. My RB room hasn't looked too pretty on paper the last few years, but somehow I'm always middle of the pack at worst in RB scoring. I think it's also partially just because aside from those top 8-10 guys, they all score so similarly.

 

[FarFromHome]

Knowing when to keep and knowing when to dump these rb1 RBS is such a critical skill. Hate to say it but we might be at that point to consider cashing in on McCaffrey for those who own.

Took Dalvin with my last pick. After response from thread I just dumped him for Michael Wilson.

 

[BIRDGANG52]

Surprised no bump, allegedly he's visiting the Cowboys tomorrow.

 

[General Malaise]

Surprised no bump, allegedly he's visiting the Cowboys tomorrow.

He's cooked.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Surprised no bump, allegedly he's visiting the Cowboys tomorrow.

If anything, it’s a sign that Rico is the dude in DAL.

Zeke & Cook are just names on a jersey. Of
Course one of them could have a mini resurgence, but IMO it would just make all 3 unstartable.

 

[travdogg]

Surprised no bump, allegedly he's visiting the Cowboys tomorrow.

If anything, it’s a sign that Rico is the dude in DAL.

Zeke & Cook are just names on a jersey. Of
Course one of them could have a mini resurgence, but IMO it would just make all 3 unstartable.

I hate to defend Zeke, as I've always thought he was a little overrated, but he does 3 things really well still. GL rushing, pass blocking, and catching checkdowns. That will get him playing time, and I would guess the 1A job in Dallas. I'm expecting Zeke/Dowdle to be not unlike Zeke/Pollard 2-3 years ago, just much less productive.

I'm not sure Cook does anything well at this stage.