RB Dameon Pierce, Free Agent (6 Viewers)

[titusbramble]

I would think there's some team that needs somebody down the stretch that they pick him up. But sure glad I got out in spring of 2024 for a third

 

[Lansdowne]

Fourth round contract and yet he cleared waivers.

And this is why draft capital matters when considering RBs in rookie drafts. Pierce played like he was shot out of a cannon through the first 10 weeks of his rookie season, ranking 5th in rushing yards and the RB14 overall in fantasy during that time. His production then took a nose dive for his final four games of that season before suffering a season-ending ankle sprain.

The following season they brought in Singletary for veteran depth. Week 8 of that season Pierce suffers another ankle sprain, Singletary takes over as the starter, plays much better than Pierce had been playing and never looked back. Texans then trade for Mixon in 2024 and Pierce is on the roster bubble.

As an NFL RB you will get replaced in a hurry, and that especially goes for RBs that teams didn’t invest significant draft capital in. Even if you played well (see James Robinson). NFL teams (justifiably so) hesitate to trust RBs they didn’t take in the first two rounds, so they’ll go and find another guy just in case. Let’s stay with the Texans here because they’re an interesting case study.

In 2008 they drafted Steve Slaton in the 3rd round. He replaced Ahman Green, who got injured Week 1, and had a great rookie season, finishing RB12 overall in fantasy. The following year, he underperformed and was benched halfway through the season. Late in the season an undrafted rookie named Arian Foster emerged from the practice squad and introduced himself to the world with two stellar performances to end the season. He looked promising, but the sample size was small, and the Texans elected to draft a RB in the 2nd round in 2010 (Ben Tate). It looked like Tate was going to be the handpicked guy over Foster but Tate suffered a season-ending injury during the preseason. Foster responded by leading the NFL in rushing yards and TDs as the overall RB1 in fantasy. Kubiak insisted on getting return on investment in Tate and used him as part of a 2-man tandem with Foster in 2011, but otherwise Foster held his own and remained the man in that backfield until the wheels came off his age 29 season. But it took Foster being an undeniably elite performer to keep his job. He’s an extreme outlier.

Dameon Pierce only had a good 2+ month run his rookie season and that’s it. I remember the concerns of his draft profile, being viewed as a committee RB since he never had workhorse duty in 4 years at Florida. Never ran for 100 yards in a college game, rarely had double digit carries in a game. 4th round NFL draft capital seemed aggressive for the Texans. Still got enough hype that I saw him go 1st round at the end of my rookie draft. Just glad I wasn’t the one who made that mistake.

Maybe something to think about for those of you Cam Skattebo dynasty owners out there. A guy the Giants took in the 4th round a year after their 5th round rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. had a nice season for himself. Would it really be that surprising if the Giants replaced them both with a new RB next offseason? They didn’t invest a lot in either guy. Pierce is a cautionary tale of how quickly RBs can go cold and be replaced, whether it’s performance or injury related. It’s actually kind of interesting he lasted on the roster this long.

What you wrote here is an outstanding argument for a NFL team to not use a Day 1 or Day 2 pick on a RB. I tend to trust systems more than I do draft capital.

Yeah my biggest thing with NFL teams doing it is RBs have a short shelf life and, if they’re elite, will often price themselves out to the point of being allowed to walk in free agency or be traded. Elite QBs and WRs almost never make it to free agency, they are either extended with the team that drafted them or traded and then extended with their new teams. The Panthers rewarded Chuba Hubbard for his excellent play last season with a contract extension, only to see Rico Dowdle, who they got for much cheaper, come in and Wally Pipp him midseason. If your run blocking system is strong, even average talents will have success in it.

For fantasy purposes though it’s smart to target RBs who NFL teams took in the first two rounds, because they typically get more opportunities and longer leashes. Teams that passed on talent at more premium positions are going to want that return on investment. Players still need to perform but it takes longer for a 1-2 round RB to be replaced than someone drafted later as a dart throw. For example Clyde Edwards-Helaire was trash and it took until halfway through his third season for the Chiefs to finally replace him. I know I’m arguing against myself by citing a 1st round bust but just goes to show how much more wiggle room RBs with high draft capital have.

 

[Bri]

Fourth round contract and yet he cleared waivers.

And this is why draft capital matters when considering RBs in rookie drafts. Pierce played like he was shot out of a cannon through the first 10 weeks of his rookie season, ranking 5th in rushing yards and the RB14 overall in fantasy during that time. His production then took a nose dive for his final four games of that season before suffering a season-ending ankle sprain.

The following season they brought in Singletary for veteran depth. Week 8 of that season Pierce suffers another ankle sprain, Singletary takes over as the starter, plays much better than Pierce had been playing and never looked back. Texans then trade for Mixon in 2024 and Pierce is on the roster bubble.

As an NFL RB you will get replaced in a hurry, and that especially goes for RBs that teams didn’t invest significant draft capital in. Even if you played well (see James Robinson). NFL teams (justifiably so) hesitate to trust RBs they didn’t take in the first two rounds, so they’ll go and find another guy just in case. Let’s stay with the Texans here because they’re an interesting case study.

In 2008 they drafted Steve Slaton in the 3rd round. He replaced Ahman Green, who got injured Week 1, and had a great rookie season, finishing RB12 overall in fantasy. The following year, he underperformed and was benched halfway through the season. Late in the season an undrafted rookie named Arian Foster emerged from the practice squad and introduced himself to the world with two stellar performances to end the season. He looked promising, but the sample size was small, and the Texans elected to draft a RB in the 2nd round in 2010 (Ben Tate). It looked like Tate was going to be the handpicked guy over Foster but Tate suffered a season-ending injury during the preseason. Foster responded by leading the NFL in rushing yards and TDs as the overall RB1 in fantasy. Kubiak insisted on getting return on investment in Tate and used him as part of a 2-man tandem with Foster in 2011, but otherwise Foster held his own and remained the man in that backfield until the wheels came off his age 29 season. But it took Foster being an undeniably elite performer to keep his job. He’s an extreme outlier.

Dameon Pierce only had a good 2+ month run his rookie season and that’s it. I remember the concerns of his draft profile, being viewed as a committee RB since he never had workhorse duty in 4 years at Florida. Never ran for 100 yards in a college game, rarely had double digit carries in a game. 4th round NFL draft capital seemed aggressive for the Texans. Still got enough hype that I saw him go 1st round at the end of my rookie draft. Just glad I wasn’t the one who made that mistake.

Maybe something to think about for those of you Cam Skattebo dynasty owners out there. A guy the Giants took in the 4th round a year after their 5th round rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. had a nice season for himself. Would it really be that surprising if the Giants replaced them both with a new RB next offseason? They didn’t invest a lot in either guy. Pierce is a cautionary tale of how quickly RBs can go cold and be replaced, whether it’s performance or injury related. It’s actually kind of interesting he lasted on the roster this long.

What you wrote here is an outstanding argument for a NFL team to not use a Day 1 or Day 2 pick on a RB. I tend to trust systems more than I do draft capital.

Yeah my biggest thing with NFL teams doing it is RBs have a short shelf life and, if they’re elite, will often price themselves out to the point of being allowed to walk in free agency or be traded. Elite QBs and WRs almost never make it to free agency, they are either extended with the team that drafted them or traded and then extended with their new teams. The Panthers rewarded Chuba Hubbard for his excellent play last season with a contract extension, only to see Rico Dowdle, who they got for much cheaper, come in and Wally Pipp him midseason. If your run blocking system is strong, even average talents will have success in it.

For fantasy purposes though it’s smart to target RBs who NFL teams took in the first two rounds, because they typically get more opportunities and longer leashes. Teams that passed on talent at more premium positions are going to want that return on investment. Players still need to perform but it takes longer for a 1-2 round RB to be replaced than someone drafted later as a dart throw. For example Clyde Edwards-Helaire was trash and it took until halfway through his third season for the Chiefs to finally replace him. I know I’m arguing against myself by citing a 1st round bust but just goes to show how much more wiggle room RBs with high draft capital have.

No no makes total sense. I get it. I agree.

 

[Lansdowne]

Fourth round contract and yet he cleared waivers.

And this is why draft capital matters when considering RBs in rookie drafts. Pierce played like he was shot out of a cannon through the first 10 weeks of his rookie season, ranking 5th in rushing yards and the RB14 overall in fantasy during that time. His production then took a nose dive for his final four games of that season before suffering a season-ending ankle sprain.

The following season they brought in Singletary for veteran depth. Week 8 of that season Pierce suffers another ankle sprain, Singletary takes over as the starter, plays much better than Pierce had been playing and never looked back. Texans then trade for Mixon in 2024 and Pierce is on the roster bubble.

As an NFL RB you will get replaced in a hurry, and that especially goes for RBs that teams didn’t invest significant draft capital in. Even if you played well (see James Robinson). NFL teams (justifiably so) hesitate to trust RBs they didn’t take in the first two rounds, so they’ll go and find another guy just in case. Let’s stay with the Texans here because they’re an interesting case study.

In 2008 they drafted Steve Slaton in the 3rd round. He replaced Ahman Green, who got injured Week 1, and had a great rookie season, finishing RB12 overall in fantasy. The following year, he underperformed and was benched halfway through the season. Late in the season an undrafted rookie named Arian Foster emerged from the practice squad and introduced himself to the world with two stellar performances to end the season. He looked promising, but the sample size was small, and the Texans elected to draft a RB in the 2nd round in 2010 (Ben Tate). It looked like Tate was going to be the handpicked guy over Foster but Tate suffered a season-ending injury during the preseason. Foster responded by leading the NFL in rushing yards and TDs as the overall RB1 in fantasy. Kubiak insisted on getting return on investment in Tate and used him as part of a 2-man tandem with Foster in 2011, but otherwise Foster held his own and remained the man in that backfield until the wheels came off his age 29 season. But it took Foster being an undeniably elite performer to keep his job. He’s an extreme outlier.

Dameon Pierce only had a good 2+ month run his rookie season and that’s it. I remember the concerns of his draft profile, being viewed as a committee RB since he never had workhorse duty in 4 years at Florida. Never ran for 100 yards in a college game, rarely had double digit carries in a game. 4th round NFL draft capital seemed aggressive for the Texans. Still got enough hype that I saw him go 1st round at the end of my rookie draft. Just glad I wasn’t the one who made that mistake.

Maybe something to think about for those of you Cam Skattebo dynasty owners out there. A guy the Giants took in the 4th round a year after their 5th round rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. had a nice season for himself. Would it really be that surprising if the Giants replaced them both with a new RB next offseason? They didn’t invest a lot in either guy. Pierce is a cautionary tale of how quickly RBs can go cold and be replaced, whether it’s performance or injury related. It’s actually kind of interesting he lasted on the roster this long.

What you wrote here is an outstanding argument for a NFL team to not use a Day 1 or Day 2 pick on a RB. I tend to trust systems more than I do draft capital.

Yeah my biggest thing with NFL teams doing it is RBs have a short shelf life and, if they’re elite, will often price themselves out to the point of being allowed to walk in free agency or be traded. Elite QBs and WRs almost never make it to free agency, they are either extended with the team that drafted them or traded and then extended with their new teams. The Panthers rewarded Chuba Hubbard for his excellent play last season with a contract extension, only to see Rico Dowdle, who they got for much cheaper, come in and Wally Pipp him midseason. If your run blocking system is strong, even average talents will have success in it.

For fantasy purposes though it’s smart to target RBs who NFL teams took in the first two rounds, because they typically get more opportunities and longer leashes. Teams that passed on talent at more premium positions are going to want that return on investment. Players still need to perform but it takes longer for a 1-2 round RB to be replaced than someone drafted later as a dart throw. For example Clyde Edwards-Helaire was trash and it took until halfway through his third season for the Chiefs to finally replace him. I know I’m arguing against myself by citing a 1st round bust but just goes to show how much more wiggle room RBs with high draft capital have.

No no makes total sense. I get it. I agree.

It’s cool, I was responding to Bronco Billy’s reply. The forum does a weird thing where it notifies you that your post was quoted even if it’s not a direct reply to it. Everyone on the quote chain gets notified. It’s a peeve of mine honestly but I don’t know any easy way to avoid it.

 

[JohnnyU]

I'll be surprised if he's not signed by Tuesday morning.

I don’t get it. If he’s good enough why was he erased by a team that could use the depth? I read somewhere the Texans scheme is made for Pierce. Maybe he would fit another team better.

 

[rockaction]

I actually agree with both sides and just want to say that the fantasy landscape no longer maps any sort of reality at the LB or RB positions, and once you start debating draft capital and what it means like you guys are; well, unless you’re horrendous at the eye test then welcome to the world of whim, randomness, and accepting those two things as non-determinative of your appraisals and talents as a fantasy player.

WR is the only holdout where you can almost count on your elite capital not getting trampled but then see Jacksonville this year with draft capital and extreme talent introduced to a new and foreign element in its ecosystem and the gypsy moths just felled the elms like it was redux, boys, and Main St. just changed forever all over again.

 

[menobrown]

I'll be surprised if he's not signed by Tuesday morning.

I don’t get it. If he’s good enough why was he erased by a team that could use the depth? I read somewhere the Texans scheme is made for Pierce. Maybe he would fit another team better.

Logistics.

Mid week, game-plans in place, you'd have to cut someone to make room for him and he'd likely not have a role. Teams are interested in him and he'll sign early next week, but might get signed to practice squad at first.

 

[Lansdowne]

I'll be surprised if he's not signed by Tuesday morning.

I don’t get it. If he’s good enough why was he erased by a team that could use the depth? I read somewhere the Texans scheme is made for Pierce. Maybe he would fit another team better.

When looking at scheme fits I look for teams who have coaches that coached the player in college. Two teams fit the bill for Dameon Pierce in this situation:

New Orleans Saints: Doug Nussmeier is their OC and was Pierce’s OC at Florida his freshman season

Washington Commanders: Brian Johnson is their assistant head coach and offensive pass game coordinator and was Pierce’s OC at Florida his senior season