RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (2 Viewers)

[TripItUp]

Pierce is not a zone runner...he's in a bad scheme fit. It's not like all of a sudden he became a bad runningback.

His salary is so low that the Texans don't mind keeping him around as a backup, but I don't believe he'll match his rookie season efficiency until he's in an offense that matches his skillset.

 

[Ilov80s]

Pierce is not a zone runner...he's in a bad scheme fit. It's not like all of a sudden he became a bad runningback.

His salary is so low that the Texans don't mind keeping him around as a backup, but I don't believe he'll match his rookie season efficiency until he's in an offense that matches his skillset.

I think he was really overrated going into last season. He runs really hard but that alone is not a recipe for long term success.

 

[TripItUp]

I think he was really overrated going into last season. He runs really hard but that alone is not a recipe for long term success.

I disagree. What he showed his rookie season was exceptional and certainly not a fluke. He's just not a zone runner. It's the wrong scheme for him. He'd be a much better fit with the Cowboys or Chargers(as examples)

 

[Ilov80s]

I think he was really overrated going into last season. He runs really hard but that alone is not a recipe for long term success.

I disagree. What he showed his rookie season was exceptional and certainly not a fluke. He's just not a zone runner. It's the wrong scheme for him. He'd be a much better fit with the Cowboys or Chargers(as examples)

That’s fair and I guess why there are always buyers and sellers. I’ve never seen it with Pierce.

 

[Faust]

@32BeatWriters
“Two days and two checked boxes for Dameon Pierce. See hole, hit hole. That’s the charge for Pierce and it was the result he delivered. Today’s nice run was better than yesterday’s as he showcased decisiveness and burst and no defender was near him for nearly 10 yards.”

via @Cody_Stoots
houfootball.com/p/11-observati…

x.com

x.com

 

[Ray_T]

I think he was really overrated going into last season. He runs really hard but that alone is not a recipe for long term success.

I disagree. What he showed his rookie season was exceptional and certainly not a fluke. He's just not a zone runner. It's the wrong scheme for him. He'd be a much better fit with the Cowboys or Chargers(as examples)

this. hes a scheme RB in the wrong Scheme.

bad news for him.

 

[Ilov80s]

I think he was really overrated going into last season. He runs really hard but that alone is not a recipe for long term success.

I disagree. What he showed his rookie season was exceptional and certainly not a fluke. He's just not a zone runner. It's the wrong scheme for him. He'd be a much better fit with the Cowboys or Chargers(as examples)

this. hes a scheme RB in the wrong Scheme.

bad news for him.

He will be 26 by the time he hits FA, with RB shelf life, his outlook is pretty bad for dynasty.

 

[TripItUp]

He will be 26 by the time he hits FA, with RB shelf life, his outlook is pretty bad for dynasty.

shelf life is more based on carries than age...wouldn't be surprised if he resurfaces as a fantasy starter again.

 

[Ilov80s]

He will be 26 by the time he hits FA, with RB shelf life, his outlook is pretty bad for dynasty.

shelf life is more based on carries than age...wouldn't be surprised if he resurfaces as a fantasy starter again.

I don't think teams are going to be very excited to sign and give a big role to a 26 year old RB who hasn't produced in 3 years. Now that takes some projection because who knows how 2024 and 2025 play out but I don't think he is currently on a trajectory that lands him as a consistent fantasy starter again. Maybe a placeholder for a developing rookie or a back-up to an injured back or part of a Dillon/Jones type split backfield.

 

[Ray_T]

He will be 26 by the time he hits FA, with RB shelf life, his outlook is pretty bad for dynasty.

shelf life is more based on carries than age...wouldn't be surprised if he resurfaces as a fantasy starter again.

I don't think teams are going to be very excited to sign and give a big role to a 26 year old RB who hasn't produced in 3 years. Now that takes some projection because who knows how 2024 and 2025 play out but I don't think he is currently on a trajectory that lands him as a consistent fantasy starter again. Maybe a placeholder for a developing rookie or a back-up to an injured back or part of a Dillon/Jones type split backfield.

he may not be ideally suited to zone blocking but that doesnt mean he cant learn. its not necessarily doom and goom but its not looking great

 

[foxco]

All I feel about Pierce is doom and goom unfortunately.

 

[menobrown]

Keep hope alive....

Year 1 Dameon Pierce might be back. He’s looked explosive and decisive.

x.com

x.com

 

[King of the Jungle]

Keep hope alive....

Year 1 Dameon Pierce might be back. He’s looked explosive and decisive.

x.com

x.com

I am not giving up on him as I think he has a decent starter kit if he improves in some areas. Good buy low in dynasty for those that have higher roster limits imo. Well ahead of his brother Alex in potential.

 

[nittanylion]

Late pick in large roster/deep bench redraft Leagues, drafting now, I think he's a sharp investment - low risk/potential moderate-to-high return.

It's early in the League year. He seems to be a step ahead of last year, in this system in which he's somewhat of a square peg in a round hole.

IMHO, he's, at worst, a systems-RB, who, in the system he fits, fits quite well.

My National Contest partner is pretty plugged in to the Cowboys. He's told me more than once, that since this League year got underway, there has been very low-key, but repetitive dialogue, enough to call it 'smoke', between the Cowboys and Texans about Pierce. According to him, they are very gently trying to pry Pierce away from the Texans before his market might steam up when training camps begin and public scrutiny picks up.

Where it's cheap enough, I'm grabbing him and Khalil Herbert both, with the same scenario in mind.

 

[DonFue]

Cowboys makes too much sense.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

IMHO, he's, at worst, a systems-RB, who, in the system he fits, fits quite well.

I’d read not long ago that he was not a good fit for the system, and struggled to be a 1 cut and go runner in zone schemes.

Reportedly that is why he struggled, why Singletary took over, & why they went out and traded for, then spent $$$ on signing Mixon.

I don’t mind him as a late round insurance policy / zero RB build, but I’d keep expectations relatively low.

My National Contest partner is pretty plugged in to the Cowboys. He's told me more than once, that since this League year got underway, there has been very low-key, but repetitive dialogue, enough to call it 'smoke', between the Cowboys and Texans about Pierce. According to him, they are very gently trying to pry Pierce away from the Texans before his market might steam up when training camps begin and public scrutiny picks up.

this sounds a bit like wishful thinking. Why wouldn’t it have already happened? Dallas went out and reunited with a 28 y/o Zeke, and they have Dowdle.

In May, SI proposed a potential deal of Pierce to the Cowboys - then a bunch of sites like heavy dot com, and others copycatted that article. Then none of them ever spoke of it again. That slow news day is probably where that “smoke” is coming from.

I’m skeptical that happens. Buzz is that Pierce put on some muscle this offseason and is impressing at camp, and the Texans let Singletary walk. Their depth chart behind Mixon is the unexciting duo of Dare Ogunbowale & Jawhar Jordan - both JAGs, who wouldn’t be able to help much if Mixon were to miss time.

So I doubt the Texans would want to move off of the relatively cheap and potentially talented Pierce.

Possible, but unlikely.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Cowboys makes too much sense.

SI certainly thought so in May in this extremely speculative article

NFL Rumors: Dallas Cowboys Could Pursue Houston Texans RB Dameon Pierce

Should the Cowboys try to trade for the Texans' 24-year-old running back?

www.si.com

I doubt it happens.

 

[Jayded]

Everything about him sounds better out of camp. It's as if he needed the full year for the scheme to really sync in.

I do think he's a dynasty buy-low candidate as I just have a hunch that the Texans are going to trade him at some point (and my other hunch is because they're going to want to get Jawhar Jordan on the field as Mixon's backup).

 

[TripItUp]

Everything about him sounds better out of camp. It's as if he needed the full year for the scheme to really sync in.

I do think he's a dynasty buy-low candidate as I just have a hunch that the Texans are going to trade him at some point (and my other hunch is because they're going to want to get Jawhar Jordan on the field as Mixon's backup).

he is 100% a buy low...just look at the comments in this thread these past few days.

 

[TheWinz]

Everyone's saying Dameon is a buy low, but I disagree. He is nothing more than a complete handcuff. He holds absolutely no value as long as Mixon is healthy. You may as well be drafting Trey Sermon. Mixon is a 3 down stud who has 19 touches a game for his career. Why would he cede touches to Dameon?

 

[menobrown]

Everything about him sounds better out of camp. It's as if he needed the full year for the scheme to really sync in.

I do think he's a dynasty buy-low candidate as I just have a hunch that the Texans are going to trade him at some point (and my other hunch is because they're going to want to get Jawhar Jordan on the field as Mixon's backup).

Read a sterling camp write up on him today, was as good a report as one could hope to see,

I still cant say I put a ton of value on him in dynasty because I play in shorter bench leagues but I sure want to try and hold on where I can. I have been spending late teen round redraft picks on him. I’m hoping for a trade but that price is fine for a pure handcuff, especially on this offense.

 

[Major]

Everyone's saying Dameon is a buy low, but I disagree. He is nothing more than a complete handcuff. He holds absolutely no value as long as Mixon is healthy. You may as well be drafting Trey Sermon. Mixon is a 3 down stud who has 19 touches a game for his career. Why would he cede touches to Dameon?

I think the upside revolves around him getting traded to a better situation.

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

Everyone's saying Dameon is a buy low, but I disagree. He is nothing more than a complete handcuff. He holds absolutely no value as long as Mixon is healthy. You may as well be drafting Trey Sermon. Mixon is a 3 down stud who has 19 touches a game for his career. Why would he cede touches to Dameon?

He is old.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Really seems to be carrying a high burn factor. HIs drop off was not only noticeable to his owners, but across leagues and the Texans acquisition of Mixon only serves to accentuate that.

But I'll be targeting him late for a couple of reasons:

1. Age has been mentioned, but I am someone who believes it's not the age of the RB in terms of predicting decline that is as important as workload. And I think that level is in the 1500 career carry area. So I feel like there is a level of confidence I have that Mixon won't have an efficiency resurgence.
2. Let's just think about 2022 and what the Texans did at the RB position. They brought in a dependable if unspectacular veteran in Devin Singletary to 'share' the RB workload. His annual production to that point in his career was 674 snaps/season and 1075 YFS. But I think the plan all along was to have a two-headed RBBC. And in weeks 1-7 befor Singletary took over the RB1 role, he was averaging 24 snaps/game. So there is a pretty sizable role here for Pierce to be able to seize in what profiles to be a prolific offense.
3. Yes, perhaps this is not the best scheme for Pierce. But this guy showed out as an NFL RB his rookie year and it's not implausible to think that a year learning and resetting to provide the type of running style Slowik/Ryans are looking for is at work here.

Right now, I'm seeing Pierce in the RB50's range...that just seems excessively low.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Everything about him sounds better out of camp. It's as if he needed the full year for the scheme to really sync in.

It’s also “best shape of his life SZN”, so… I take camp reports with a grain of salt,

As I said above, I can’t see HOU trade him with only Dare + Jawhar behind Mixon.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He is old.

Mixon just turned 28. He’s not Methuselah.

 

[menobrown]

Everyone's saying Dameon is a buy low, but I disagree. He is nothing more than a complete handcuff. He holds absolutely no value as long as Mixon is healthy. You may as well be drafting Trey Sermon. Mixon is a 3 down stud who has 19 touches a game for his career. Why would he cede touches to Dameon?

He is old.

Bengals wanted to move on from him because of his lack of explosive plays, was not about money. He's basically going to give you Najee Harris type production, hover around 4 yards per carry and rarely break a big play, which depending on the metric you rely on he might be worse at doing then even Najee.

I think the upside revolves around him getting traded to a better situation.

Agree that's the upside, but for sure think there is a non-zero chance he has very usable value even if Mixon remains perfectly healthy.

 

[TheWinz]

Everyone's saying Dameon is a buy low, but I disagree. He is nothing more than a complete handcuff. He holds absolutely no value as long as Mixon is healthy. You may as well be drafting Trey Sermon. Mixon is a 3 down stud who has 19 touches a game for his career. Why would he cede touches to Dameon?

He is old.

He still has a few 300 touch seasons in him. It will not be some sort of 1A/1B thing in Houston. Mixon has been a top-12 touch per game RB every year since he took over as starter in 2018. Just like Joey Tribbiani with food, he doesn't share!

 

[TripItUp]

Right now, I'm seeing Pierce in the RB50's range...that just seems excessively low.

It is, I think some don't quite understand the concept of "buy low."

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Right now, I'm seeing Pierce in the RB50's range...that just seems excessively low.

It is, I think some don't quite understand the concept of "buy low."

I sent an offer of a future 3rd on the team I have Mixon. Mostly out of boredom.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

NFL Rushing Attempts Career Leaders (since 1933) | Pro-Football-Reference.com

1. Emmitt Smith (4,409), 2. Walter Payton (3,838), 3. Frank Gore (3,735), 4. Curtis Martin (3,518), 5. Jerome Bettis (3,479),

www.pro-football-reference.com

Career carries- active players:

Zeke- 2,065 (overall #40)
Henry- 2,030 (overall #42)
MelGo- 1,593 (#72)
Mixon- 1,571 (#77)
Latavius Murry 1,560
Dalvin Cook 1,349
Kamara 1,315
Jacobs 1,305
CMC 1,297
Chubb 1,238
Barkley 1,201
Aaron Jones 1,177
Fournette 1,144
Conner 1,125
Hunt 1,030
Jamaal Williams 1,021
Ekeler 990

Injuries can really turn these old guys to dust in an instant. With Zeke it was an MCL sprain two years ago but other than that he's been pretty durable.

Mixon doesn't seem like a Zeke or Henry type of guy in terms of the overall build durability. Could be wrong but he strikes me as the kind of guy that could end up more like a MelGo who hangs around being useful but not compelling. Lots of other really good backs on this list that turned to dust way before Mixon's number of carries.

 

[Biabreakable]

Everyone's saying Dameon is a buy low, but I disagree. He is nothing more than a complete handcuff. He holds absolutely no value as long as Mixon is healthy. You may as well be drafting Trey Sermon. Mixon is a 3 down stud who has 19 touches a game for his career. Why would he cede touches to Dameon?

He is old.

He still has a few 300 touch seasons in him. It will not be some sort of 1A/1B thing in Houston. Mixon has been a top-12 touch per game RB every year since he took over as starter in 2018. Just like Joey Tribbiani with food, he doesn't share!

He split with Perine in college.

 

[Biabreakable]

1500 touches at 300 per season is 5 seasons worth of full time work. The RB will be getting old by the time they touch the ball that much anyways.

I dont see anything magic about 1500 besides the RB being good enough to get those touches.

 

[TheWinz]

I can see wanting to buy low if you have Mixon, or if you think he will be traded, but does he really have standalone value for 2024 if he stays in HOU?

 

[TripItUp]

Cowboys makes too much sense.

would be amazing

 

[TheWinz]

Everyone's saying Dameon is a buy low, but I disagree. He is nothing more than a complete handcuff. He holds absolutely no value as long as Mixon is healthy. You may as well be drafting Trey Sermon. Mixon is a 3 down stud who has 19 touches a game for his career. Why would he cede touches to Dameon?

He is old.

He still has a few 300 touch seasons in him. It will not be some sort of 1A/1B thing in Houston. Mixon has been a top-12 touch per game RB every year since he took over as starter in 2018. Just like Joey Tribbiani with food, he doesn't share!

He split with Perine in college.

He hasn't split with anyone since taking over in the NFL. Here are the RB2's in CIN since 2018:
2018 - Giovani Bernard - 91 touches
2019 - Giovani Bernard - 83 touches
2020 - Giovani Bernard - 28 touches in the 6 games before Mixon got hurt
2021 - Samaje Perine - 82 touches
2022 - Samaje Perine - 85 touches in the 14 games Mixon played
2023 - Chase Brown - 58 touches

 

[menobrown]

I can see wanting to buy low if you have Mixon, or if you think he will be traded, but does he really have standalone value for 2024 if he stays in HOU?

Yes I think it's possible even if Mixon remains healthy.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Mixon doesn't seem like a Zeke or Henry type of guy in terms of the overall build durability.

6’1, 220 is prototypical feature back build, no?

Mixon missed 0 games last year & was 13th in the NFL in rushing yards with 932, and had 51 receptions, good for 10th in the NFL. Overall PPR RB7. And that was mostly with Browning under center facing stacked boxes.

4.5 40, so he’s not what I would call “slow”. While he’s no ETN when it comes to elusiveness, he’s not a plodder out there either. He avoids contact, makes guys miss on direct hits (though looking into it last year wasn’t his best at this). He’s not a bruiser though he does fight for yards.

Over his 7 year career he’s only had 6 injuries of note, only 1 significant.

• 2017 concussion - missed 2 games
• 2017 sprained ankle (grade 1) - played following week
• 2018 - minor surgery to remove “loose particle” in his knee.
• 2020 - only year with significant missed time, Mixon sprained his foot & was placed on IR, missing the rest of the season.
• 2021 - low-grade ankle sprain, didn’t miss a game
• 2022 - concussion, missed 4th quarter of a game

None of those seem particularly concerning.

I do agree that as players age, their chances of bouncing back from injury quickly diminish, but Mixon has been pretty durable considering his workload.

And again, he’s coming off of a 2023 season where he didn’t miss a game. I don’t see why we wouldn’t put him in the Zeke or Henry category. Zeke’s had 8 injuries in 8 years, and Henry’s had 5 in 10 years. Mixon’s 6 in 7 is on par with those dudes, and he’s not exactly slight of frame.

I’m bullish on Mixon’s 2024 potential in the Texans offense. Could be some cheap TDs and more open lanes as compared to the 2023 Bengals, I’m not super concerned about injury - no more than any other RB anyway.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I can see wanting to buy low if you have Mixon, or if you think he will be traded, but does he really have standalone value for 2024 if he stays in HOU?

Yes I think it's possible even if Mixon remains healthy.

I actually agree - IF he’s actually improved in the zone blocking scheme as reported, there will be carries to go around. Mixon figures to have a ~70% snap count? (He was at 69 in CIN. Nice)

Singletary is gone - gotta figure Dare gets ~5% of the scraps, leaving 25% for Pierce?

If Mixon misses time, Pierce is IMO the unquestioned fill-in. And that seems like an offense that will be very productive, so potentially a lot of touches to be distributed.

 

[menobrown]

I can see wanting to buy low if you have Mixon, or if you think he will be traded, but does he really have standalone value for 2024 if he stays in HOU?

Yes I think it's possible even if Mixon remains healthy.

I actually agree - IF he’s actually improved in the zone blocking scheme as reported, there will be carries to go around. Mixon figures to have a ~70% snap count? (He was at 69 in CIN. Nice)

Singletary is gone - gotta figure Dare gets ~5% of the scraps, leaving 25% for Pierce?

If Mixon misses time, Pierce is IMO the unquestioned fill-in. And that seems like an offense that will be very productive, so potentially a lot of touches to be distributed.

Honestly that would be the lower end range of what I'd expect.

Even before Pierce got injured and played his way out of job he never hit a 60% snap count last year. To me that's more relative then what Mixon's usage was in Cincy.

There are other things that are on the table for Pierce to grow his role even more, not things I'd predict or expect, but it's in the legit world of possibility's. I'm sure not many people thought Miles Sanders would lose his job after seemingly getting guaranteed money to be the starting RB for two seasons. These things do happen or players perform so well they make it more like a RBBC.

But none of that should really matter to much now because in most leagues if you want Pierce you don't have to pay for any of those possibility's. I cut him in a dynasty league and then drafted him back in the 5th round. Don't imagine he cost much more then that to acquire, maybe different league settings and the such make him a third but you get the idea . I've drafted him in a few redrafts, 17th round or later as RB60 or later. His redraft ADP where I mainly play is RB64.He's going 4-5 rounds after other clear cut handcuffs. Going in the same range as RB's we are not sure are even the handcuff.

What I'm trying to say for that price, if all he is the pure backup with zero value so long as Mixon remains healthy I view him as a nice value. The rest is just a cherry on top. Putting yourself in position to benefit if he's traded or his or Mixons play forces him to have a bigger role. Those are things you really are not paying for right now, just free bonus.

 

[rockaction]

6’1, 220 is prototypical feature back build, no?

Too tall? Sounds darn good to me.

NFL has 5’10” and 218 lbs. That’s a 31.28 BMI

Obese!

(I’m kidding about the obesity.)

That seems okay and right in line with an average NFL RB. Just did some searching and reading. Interesting articles.

ALL CREDIT GOES TO BRAINY BALLERS FOR THEIR WORK HERE (I am in no way affiliated with that site; it just came up in a search, but it was worthy of a post, I think):

Weight:

NFL Running Backs: Does Weight Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis

Discover the impact of weight on NFL running backs. Explore correlations between weight and performance for your favorite players.

brainyballers.com

Height:

NFL Running Backs: Does Height Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis

Discover the impact of height on NFL running backs' production. Uncover the specific height range linked to increased on-field performance.

brainyballers.com

BMI

NFL Running Backs: Does BMI Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis

Discover the correlation between BMI and success for NFL running backs. Explore the impact of BMI on production and the 2024 rookie RB class.

brainyballers.com

 

[The Frankman]

Texans signing another vet runner doesn't help Pierce, though Akers is kinda washed coming off a second ACL tear.

 

[rockaction]

second ACL tear.

I take no joy in correcting this, but I should. It's his Achilles (it apparently does not need an apostrophe) tendon that he tore, not his ACL. It’s the second time he’s torn one; however, the first time he tore one, it was his right leg/calf/foot, and this one is in his left leg/calf/foot.

I do not know the severity of the injury he just suffered, nor do I know the significance of putting leg/calf/foot in slashes. I just did that to narrow down the area of the injury from “leg” to calf and foot, which is where Achilles tendon injuries generally happen. The article did specify “Achilles,” by the way.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/texans/article/running-back-cam-akers-signs-19587744.php

 

[The Frankman]

second ACL tear.

I take no joy in correcting this, but I should. It's his Achilles (it apparently does not need an apostrophe) tendon that he tore, not his ACL. It’s the second time he’s torn one; however, the first time he tore one, it was his right leg/calf/foot, and this one is in his left leg/calf/foot.

I do not know the severity of the injury he just suffered, nor do I know the significance of putting leg/calf/foot in slashes. I just did that to narrow down the area of the injury from “leg” to calf and foot, which is where Achilles tendon injuries generally happen. The article did specify “Achilles,” by the way.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/texans/article/running-back-cam-akers-signs-19587744.php

... do you hate Akers?

 

[rockaction]

... do you hate Akers?

He’s a loathsome fellow? I kid, of course. He’s probably a fine individual no matter what (and I’ve had such a long offseason I almost forgot the name of the coach of the Rams) Sean McVay says.

But nicely played, Frankman. That was gracious.

On a more serious note, if he comes back from two Achilles injuries, then it is going to be something I’m pretty sure we have never seen before from an RB. One Achilles was a death knell to a career in years past; two is an extraordinarily unfortunate and potentially insurmountable injury that befell Akers.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Right now, I'm seeing Pierce in the RB50's range...that just seems excessively low.

It is, I think some don't quite understand the concept of "buy low."

I sent an offer of a future 3rd on the team I have Mixon. Mostly out of boredom.

Offer accepted. I am now a Pierce shareholder.

 

[menobrown]

Texans signing another vet runner doesn't help Pierce, though Akers is kinda washed coming off a second ACL tear.

Actually if they think Akers can still play at all he's very familiar with the system and it can in fact help Pierce by increasing the chances of the Texans feeling free to move him if a decent offer materializes.

 

[BIRDGANG52]

He's worth a few shares. I think he's better than Mixon and if Mixon were to get hurt, he has huge upside in that offense. Texans gave Mixon the big deal, so I expect him to be the guy, but I don't think there's a large talent disparity between these two guys.

 

[gbill2004]

He's worth a few shares. I think he's better than Mixon and if Mixon were to get hurt, he has huge upside in that offense. Texans gave Mixon the big deal, so I expect him to be the guy, but I don't think there's a large talent disparity between these two guys.

Pierce is not a good receiver.

 

[Gold Fox]

He's worth a few shares. I think he's better than Mixon and if Mixon were to get hurt, he has huge upside in that offense. Texans gave Mixon the big deal, so I expect him to be the guy, but I don't think there's a large talent disparity between these two guys.

If he's gotten better than last year, then it's not showing up in pre-season games. I don't see it.