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RB Damien Harris, BUF (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Fariq
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
From the drafts I have seen, I doubt you will get either guy in either spot. I was in a draft last week and Harris went in the 10th (before all the press) and Michel in the 11th. My son was just in a draft yesterday and he went in the 9th. My other son drafted the other night (here in NE) and he went in the 8th.
I also forgot to mention in my opus that Harris did not get heavy usage in college. He averaged 9 carries and 1 reception per game. I don't really know if that matters or not, but if they plan to use him early and often, his body is not used to that.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The offense was ungood last year and they still ranked 8th in passing yards and 18th in rushing yards. A case can be made that this year's offense could be better than last year . No AB and JG craziness, Sanu not brought in mid-season and then immediately getting hurt, Asiasi is better than any TE last year, Harry (probably) not hurt to start the season, Edelman in better shape (probably) than the way he ended last season. Should have a healthier OL and better blocking. Certainly a more mobile QB. In summary, I think the offense will do better than most people expect. BB and JM are pretty good at what they do . . . or so I've been told. The problem is they won't focus on anyone in particular, which is great for real football but lousy for pretend football.
pantherclub
Footballguy
This is from an article in the Athletic:
"Damien Harris is probably the biggest mover at the position in the last few weeks, moving up a handful of rounds to a current ADP of 105 overall — and climbing each day and with each glowing report that he looks to be the leader of the Patriots backfield in camp. His stock is soaring and will be in the double digits real soon."
So I am a day out and he is going in the 8th in big money leagues. I believe I am still right that if you want him you need to burn a 7th on him. Possibly 6th in the next weeks drafts.
"Damien Harris is probably the biggest mover at the position in the last few weeks, moving up a handful of rounds to a current ADP of 105 overall — and climbing each day and with each glowing report that he looks to be the leader of the Patriots backfield in camp. His stock is soaring and will be in the double digits real soon."
So I am a day out and he is going in the 8th in big money leagues. I believe I am still right that if you want him you need to burn a 7th on him. Possibly 6th in the next weeks drafts.
groin pains
Footballguy
I never thought I would keep him in the 7th round of my 14 team keeper league. Although, with the anticipated RB scarcity, it may be a no brainer.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Eight or nine teams may be starting different quarterbacks this year. Does that mean we should throw out the results and roles of all the players on each of those teams? IMO, with BB and JM returning, the tendencies still carry over. It would be different if there was a whole new coaching staff.
yellowdog
Footballguy
None of those 8 or 9 teams are replacing Tom Brady. I get your point. I'm just saying it's something to consider.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
BB and JM have done a very good job adjusting to the personnel on the team each year. I am sure they will do things differently this year than in other years. IMO, they will return to a mindset offensively as they did when Brady was new and they won several titles (based mostly on a strong running game, strong defense, and timely passing). That seems like that would be an option based on the current roster. I do think they will run the call a lot, but they haven’t generally used one guy like CMC pretty much ever. I suppose there is a chance they give one guy 80% of the touches, but I wouldn’t think that is a very likely outcome.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Since you are a fan would you agree that BB and JM will strongly want to set up a heavy running game based on not trusting Newton early on and the lack of competent wr's? Or how do you feel they will adjust to losing Brady?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I don't think NE "lost" Brady, I think they "moved on" from Brady. If they really wanted him, he'd still be there. I believe Brady was not a positive for NE last year (that has been debated in other threads) and this year's offense could be better than last year's based on health alone (they had a TON of injuries on offense last season). Put another way, their defense won a ton of games and Brady was along for the ride. Brady's numbers were just plain bad over the last half of the season. Was that the talent level on offense? Was it Brady? All I know is, the offense did better when a bunch of pieces were injured and not playing early in the year than when everyone came back . . . and that's when Brady's numbers were terrible. My opinion that the offense could be better this year was prior to a whole bunch of players opting out, and I do think that will hurt them quite a bit.
As I already mentioned, I see similarities between the 2020 Patriots and 2001 Patriots. I also think BB saw what Carolina did to shorten games by successfully burning clock with extended drives. So yes, I do see a lot of running plays and short passing routes (they don't really have a ton of deep threats) and a couple of deep passes more to keep defenses honest. NE over the years has been at or near the top in terms of pace of play and number of plays run, and I think they will intentional ease the throttle down.
However, I think they will mix in passing plays and they won't shy away from having Cam throw the football even out of the gate . . . the passing plays will get more sophisticated as the season goes on . . . but they are in a much different place than in prior seasons. IMO, teams will have no idea what to expect early on. As was said, the Patriots have a 20 year history playing with Brady, so whatever they do now will be somewhat unpredictable and the NE offense will have some element of surprise.
I don't think the WRs are incompetent, I just don't think they are all that athletic. IF they can get defenses out of position, then guys like Sanu can get more open than last year. I am guessing that Cam can develop Harry into a red zone threat. White will still see a lot of dump off passes. I think Asiasi will show signs that he can be a decent NFL tight end. Edelman seems to think he can get on the same page with Cam as he did with TB12 (which I am not buying . . . but he should still see a lot of targets). So I think there will be opportunities for these guys (but I don't think Cam is as accurate as Brady was).
So IMO, there could be a bunch of contributors offensively that individually don't look that great production wise, but add everyone together and it will add up to a decent team total. Multiple players with 300, 400, 500, 600 yards of offense starts to add up, but those types of numbers don't make for many fantasy starters.
As for reports coming out of camp, Gunner Olszweski has been said to be lighting things up. Is anyone talking him up as a potential fantasy star this year? That's why I tend to take things with a grain of salt when it comes to training camp updates. Let's see what happens over the next two weeks with regard to Michel and Miller before we dub Harris as a fantasy starting RB. If people feel strongly he will end up being "the guy" and NE will feed him the ball all season, by all means, draft him as you see fit.
rockaction
Footballguy
I think people are hoping themselves into the wrong conclusion. I just seriously doubt this has legs.
Doug B
Footballguy
I think yellowdog is on to something, though I don't think it's a tipping-point thing. Just another data point. The NE offense has to be pretty different this season -- Brady and Newton have different strengths as QBs.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
There are lots of guys in that range I like more. Don't get me wrong I don't think it would be a bad pick per se, I'm just going a different direction.pantherclub said:
pantherclub
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
If it ends up having legs ... what would we be looking for now to see it coming?
...
Anarchy, one thing probably influencing many opinions about Harris' prospects is a lack of belief in Michel and Miller. I do appreciate the counter-argument -- that BB and JM, as a matter of philosophy, may still feed multiple RBs even if one RB really does end up looking a lot better than the others.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Prescience. You'd be wayyy ahead of the game. I have him in dynasty so I'm hoping it happens. I've got absolutely no axe to grind with any potential success of his.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
No not really but some good PPR backs in that range. I'm looking at WRs mostly. QB if I have waited. Maybe TE in my TE premium leagues. There is zero chance I'd take Harris over a Hurst or Herndon available there.
But truly I get it and I don't think he is a bad target there at all. I am just skeptical. Rooting for him to win the job though.
Doug B
Footballguy
So all right. All anyone's talking about, so far as I've seen, is taking an educated guess about Harris based on perceived opportunity and two teammates on the PUP list at the same position. I know Michel just came back, but foot injuries sometimes are tricky to fully overcome. Lamar Miller has been out of football for a year -- does he just show up and pick right back up where he left off in 2018? I know ACLs are more recoverable than they once were, but still.
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pantherclub
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Harris literally could not get on the field last year, and the same guys are coming back (with the exception of Miller being added and Bolden opting out). I don't think the other players got worse and there wasn't really a pre-season to speak of (sort of like time stopped and then they finally started prepping for the season). Last year Jacobi Meyers was the guy lighting up camp and people were drafting him as the next big thing in NE. I try to avoid the hype coming out of NE camp every year because things rarely turn out the way things are getting hyped or reported.
BB has not shown that with a stable of healthy backs that he will ride one guy (at least not in the past 15 years). Blount had a big season a few years ago when Lewis was beat up and limited. White had a big season a couple of years ago, but that was due to a freakish amount of TD (not a big workload). Michel has literally started every season with some sort of recovery from an injury, a surgery, or some type of boo boo . . . and yet for some unknown (or illogical) reason, they have stuck with him. While he has just recently returned to practice, he has been at the stadium doing all sorts of rehab and workouts for weeks if not months by this point. It's not like he's been on the couch watching Korean League baseball.
If they opt to cut Miller (definitely an option . . . but why sign him in the first place if he both couldn't practice and they didn't have an interest in using him) and Michel is injured (always a possibility) or isn't very good (also in the running for options), that still leaves White and Burkhead to contend with.
Maybe Harris is SO MUCH BETTER than everyone else . . . but if that were the case, why was Harris inactive almost every game last season? IMO, Harris has earned the right to be "in the mix" at running back to start the season. IMO, he will earn more snaps if he does really well, the other guys look horrible, or guys start missing games from injuries. However, I am not prepared to go with "he is starting at the top of the pyramid and everyone else is just going to stand on the sideline and watch" as his outlook.
Again, worth a flyer or worth a mid round pick, but with each day that passes he is going earlier and earlier.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
pantherclub
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Was talking TE premium in that example. But to be fair the last time I looked they were in the same range. I'm sure Harris is climbing.
Doug B
Footballguy
I think I see the crux of our mild disagreement. You might be thinking of Michel and Miller as "back in action, ready to go". I am thinking of them as "limited at best, and potentially prone to reinjury".
That said, I do agree with you about camp darlings. We go through the same thing in New Orleans every year (UDFA WR Emmanuel Butler was getting drafted in local leagues last year, and he ended up on the practice squad). But Harris shouldn't be getting drafted just because he's getting "'first team reps" (he should be, he's one of the last vets standing) or because he rips off a 65-yd camp TD in shorts-&-shells. He should be getting drafted because of his apparent opportunity as a 2-down back with upside -- again, no Bolden and potentially limited Michel and Miller.
I realize James White and Burkhead are still around, and I do like White. But there still seems to be an open door for Harris. I do believe that even Harris' proponents realize that Harris hasn't walked through that door yet.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Jacobi Meyers got first team reps last year. Gunner Olszweski is getting first team reps this year. BB often doesn't push his actual starters to preserve them for the season. IMO, he is giving Harris extended reps because he didn't play much at all (and was not very active in practice either) last year. BB knows what he has with White and Burkhead, so no need to stress them in practice. He knows what he has in Michel (who is two days back to practice). They obviously can't play Miller as he is not yet activated. Just because a player is getting first team reps in NE does not automatically equate to that player getting a big workload, a lot of snaps, or a higher spot on the depth chart.
One year they had an UDFA that ultimately ended up in Arizona (DJ Foster) that was tearing it up in camp. Had multiple long TD runs and receptions. Looked incredible in practice and preseason games. Started getting first team reps. He ended up playing 3 games and getting 8 total touches. Then he was released and ended up on the Cardinals. Bottom line, IMO it is absolutely impossible to tell if Harris is in line for a juicy steak or a half eaten PB and J sandwich this year.
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pantherclub
Footballguy
^good to know thanks
Doug B
Footballguy
Just finished a 10-round keeper draft (12 teams x 6 keepers, 16-man rosters). It's close to standard scoring and no PPR ... but I took Harris in the 2nd (my 8th player), and Herndon went undrafted. 21 TEs are rostered.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I put the one dynasty share OTB a couple days ago. Trying to package with one of my WR for a 1st but no takers yet. I do have an offer of a 2nd in my box, though and will probably just take it.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
My point in all of this is that drafting Harris where the draft winds are taking him comes with both a leap of faith and a decent possibility that things don't play out as planned. If people are ok with that, then have at it. But should things NOT turn out the way they hope, those same people will chirp at the end of the season about how there was no way of knowing that Harris would not be a star and they were duped.
I tried 100 times last offseason to explain to people that no way, no how should people draft Sony Michel based off of his insane post season numbers (336/6) and he was the most overvalued RB on the board. His ADP was like 10 or 11. IIRC, I actually had him pegged for 6 or 7 total TD on the season, and I caught flack for that because he scored that in three games! Three PLAYOFF games at that!
Again, I side with those that say Michel should not get the amount of touches he does and someone else should take over. Who knows if that happens and who knows if Harris would be the primary beneficiary should BB finally come to that conclusion. IMO, Harris should be a better fit with what I think NE will try to run for an offense this year. But I haven't won as many Super Bowls as BB has.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Another good post. I am in no way predicting he is going to be a star or blow up, I am simply drafting him under the assumption that he may be starting for the pats and I am getting him in round 7/8. A starting RB in those rounds is extreme value and allows you to be a bit creative up top. Like go wr/wr/wr or something a bit against the grain
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I just drafted Michel as the 45th RB off the board in a 0 PPR league with some really specialized rules and scoring requirements. Harris was still available. (What makes things very atypical is it is a total points league where every player on you roster counts every week and there are no roster moves the entire season.) In this case, to me, it seemed more likely Michel would get enough touches to outproduce Harris on the season. Time will tell . . .
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pantherclub
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh lort.
I’d just like to say, I will not be drafting any Pats RBs this year in redraft.
That backfield is fool’s gold. Every time the FF community convinces themselves they know the answer, BB changes the question.
Love the news for my prospects of getting a shiny nickel for Michel in dynasty at some point. Hate this news for every other conceivable reason.
I’m out.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Sold Harris for a future 2nd (not a good team). Please remove my white star. JK.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Feed the hype that be.
10 New England Patriots training camp takeaways: Damien Harris hype train bursts out of the station, N’Keal Harry struggles
Cam Newton averaged around 500 rushing yards and about 6 TDs over the past five years including last year when he barely saw the field. Brady averaged about 40 yards and 1.5 TDs over the past five years. Mickey-D and BB started using Tom in-close at the goal the past two years.
They were using an octogenarian HOF QB at the GL, they are going to use Cam's legs so add him to a crowded backfield.
White is going to keep the 3rd down back role.
I like to go back and see if their are over looked RBs who got drafted and Harris WAS one of those till the hype wave hit.
IF you can get him cheap then he's a perfect turn-around back to trade when he has a big game and NE RBs will have sporadic big games.
He will see the field this year and he will have a big game or two and his stock will rise.
Their is an opportunity provided you get him reasonably cheap.
10 New England Patriots training camp takeaways: Damien Harris hype train bursts out of the station, N’Keal Harry struggles
Chugga chugga chugga chugga choo choo
Cam Newton averaged around 500 rushing yards and about 6 TDs over the past five years including last year when he barely saw the field. Brady averaged about 40 yards and 1.5 TDs over the past five years. Mickey-D and BB started using Tom in-close at the goal the past two years.
They were using an octogenarian HOF QB at the GL, they are going to use Cam's legs so add him to a crowded backfield.
White is going to keep the 3rd down back role.
I like to go back and see if their are over looked RBs who got drafted and Harris WAS one of those till the hype wave hit.
IF you can get him cheap then he's a perfect turn-around back to trade when he has a big game and NE RBs will have sporadic big games.
He will see the field this year and he will have a big game or two and his stock will rise.
Their is an opportunity provided you get him reasonably cheap.
rockaction
Footballguy
Pretty solid work to get an early second. That's about his max value until a miracle happens.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
BTW, reports that Harris was getting all the first team reps since Michel returned have been debunked. They split first team reps the first couple of practices and Michel got all the first team reps yesterday.
Also there is definitely some embellishment going on in some of the media reports. The plays they have been running are whistled dead pretty quickly. If a guy breaks the line and gets to the second level, they call the play dead. The reporters want to call a play like that a 65 yard or 80 yard TD when guys on defense don’t pursue and are not going 100%. Even BB will say they are trying to teach guys positioning, containment, and reads at the same time. It’s not the same environment as a real game (and most of the time they are not full contact anyway).
The consensus among the beat guys is Harris has earned the right to be in the mix and has starter potential. I have not seen any local reporter anoint Harris as the starter. Most say he would be the starter if Michel and Miller can’t go.
Also there is definitely some embellishment going on in some of the media reports. The plays they have been running are whistled dead pretty quickly. If a guy breaks the line and gets to the second level, they call the play dead. The reporters want to call a play like that a 65 yard or 80 yard TD when guys on defense don’t pursue and are not going 100%. Even BB will say they are trying to teach guys positioning, containment, and reads at the same time. It’s not the same environment as a real game (and most of the time they are not full contact anyway).
The consensus among the beat guys is Harris has earned the right to be in the mix and has starter potential. I have not seen any local reporter anoint Harris as the starter. Most say he would be the starter if Michel and Miller can’t go.
pantherclub
Footballguy
I am definitely targeting him in the 8th. Maybe even 7th depending on how the draft is going but more than likely the 8th. Getting him as your RB 4 may be like winning the lottery if Michel goes down. Let him have a big game or two and then sell high.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I certainly don’t know what will happen, but I think they will start Week 1 with Michel as the two down back and White as the third down back. Harris will take over for Burkhead (who usually gets one drive each half for however long that drive lasts). If Harris does really well and Michel busts, then Harris would start getting more drives. If Harris misses blocking assignments or ad libs on runs, Burkhead will start taking snaps from Harris.
Last year, the group of TE’s in NE were so bad blocking that they would have been better off not even using a TE. They also had multiple OL and FB injuries. I agree that Michel wasn’t very good, but to pin it all on him would be ignoring a lot of factors.
So if the OL, TE, and FB spots can all block this year (and it sounds like they have been doing much better in camp), in theory, that should help Michel.
I think part of the reason some beat guys are really pushing for Harris is they don’t love Michel. But BB will not pay any attention to what they have to say.
pantherclub
Footballguy
^ good stuff
In my feeble little mind, the handful of times I watched the pats last year Sony looked terrible to me. He doesnt have the "it" factor. Just kindof a plodder in my mind but I appreciate your perspective.
In my feeble little mind, the handful of times I watched the pats last year Sony looked terrible to me. He doesnt have the "it" factor. Just kindof a plodder in my mind but I appreciate your perspective.
rockaction
Footballguy
I think it's because Michel looks like he's running in cement and apparently can almost tackle himself. He was that bad last year. I don't care about the line. I watched both Michel and Bell stink and have everyone use the line as an excuse. But other guys fared much better behind the same lines. He was just either hurt or washed last year.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I am not suggesting Michel looked good very often last year. There were plays where as you said he looked to tackle himself. But there were plenty of times he got hit in the backfield as soon as he touches the ball.
Burkhead did look better than Michel last year. White running the ball looked just as bad. Bolden looked a little better in his limited usage, but that might have stemmed from teams not expecting him to get the ball. We also don’t know the situations, so it’s a lot easier to get an 8 yard run on 3rd and 15.
That being said, given how mediocre the ground game was and how much unscary Michel looked, why was Harris inactive almost every game last year?
