I appreciate these comments a lot. I understand where you’re coming from here - ADP should impact actions somewhat because you don’t want to reach a long ways. But then the question becomes how far should you move down and still have certainty that you’ll get your guy?
Let’s say that you’re willing to be foolish and crazy and completely disregard Coop’s rigid insistence, and instead believe that Henderson will be a better FF producer than Jacobs or any other RB in this draft and is the best RB in the draft this year. How far do you then trade down and still have certainty that you’ll be able to get him? Is 1.08 too far? This year, I believe so. Drafts are all over the board. How about 1.05? Is there surety there? If so, what happens if the owners of 1.02 to 1.05 are not interested in trading? Well, according to Coop you are supposed to let the guy who in your judgment may be the best FF RB producer in the draft go elsewhere and either trade down further and let Henderson go elsewhere while accepting a lesser player; or just draft the guy who you think isn’t the best RB and is a bust candidate in the draft at 1.01.
My point is that if you do your vetting, both internally and through sounding boards that you consider reliable and knowledgeable, and you still think Henderson is the best guy on the board, then yeah - you take the plunge and reach for him. Better that and trying to pluck value later in the draft in the event he does bust than to just go status quo and take a lesser guy to watch the guy you thought was a stud blow up on someone else’s team.
If you watch the teams that are more successful in the NFL draft make their picks, that’s what they do. Let the common “knowledge” be damned and go get the guys they think are players, ignore when the “draft experts” roast them for reaching, and get their last laugh in the end. And even when they do make mistakes up high, which happens to every team, they always seem to reap a couple of gems down low when other teams are drafting guys they’ll end up cutting 5 months later.
IMO, it’s a lot more fun when you’re doing your homework and building your team with your guys than it is just adhering to some dogmatic practice or plugging measurables and college data into some formula that misses half the time or more - because there’s no way to quantify guys who are just football players above all else, or who carry a ton of heart, instinct and football IQ onto the field.