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RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (2 Viewers)

It's not entirely like that. But sometimes it's just obvious. Rb taken in the 20s, that's the 1.01 in most drafts, definitely this one. No need to overthink it. 
 In most cases I would absolutely agree. but not in 2019 where the rb group isnt elite at the top. 

In 2018 Freeman was going before many other RBs taken higher in the NFL draft. I don't recall it being such a scandal to do so. And I still think Freeman will have a better fantasy career than Michel and Penny... 

I dont think it's so unreasonable to take the rb4 over the rb1... you're talking about taking WR9 over WR3. According to the logic in the Butler thread, Deebo is "practically" a 1st round NFL pick. 

In the end I think 2 RBs come out of these top 4 as fantasy relevant. Henderson being the better of the two. I would not waste 1.1 on a player I'm convinced will bust

 
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If I can find the guy who loves Jacob's and trade him the 1.01, I do that. Nbd. That's preferable even. But I think it's just silly to take Henderson there, or even my guy Sanders. Maybe I'm not understanding correctly your position on the subject either.


I appreciate these comments a lot.  I understand where you’re coming from here - ADP should impact actions somewhat because you don’t want to reach a long ways.  But then the question becomes how far should you move down and still have certainty that you’ll get your guy?

Let’s say that you’re willing to be foolish and crazy and completely disregard Coop’s rigid insistence, and instead believe that Henderson will be a better FF producer than Jacobs or any other RB in this draft and is the best RB in the draft this year.  How far do you then trade down and still have certainty that you’ll be able to get him?  Is 1.08 too far?  This year, I believe so.  Drafts are all over the board.  How about 1.05?  Is there surety there?  If so, what happens if the owners of 1.02 to 1.05 are not interested in trading?  Well, according to Coop you are supposed to let the guy who in your judgment may be the best FF RB producer in the draft go elsewhere and either trade down further and let Henderson go elsewhere while accepting a lesser player; or just draft the guy who you think isn’t the best RB and is a bust candidate in the draft at 1.01.

My point is that if you do your vetting, both internally and through sounding boards that you consider reliable and knowledgeable, and you still think Henderson is the best guy on the board, then yeah - you take the plunge and reach for him.  Better that and trying to pluck value later in the draft in the event he does bust than to just go status quo and take a lesser guy to watch the guy you thought was a stud blow up on someone else’s team.  

If you watch the teams that are more successful in the NFL draft make their picks, that’s what they do.  Let the common “knowledge” be damned and go get the guys they think are players, ignore when the “draft experts” roast them for reaching, and get their last laugh in the end.  And even when they do make mistakes up high, which happens to every team, they always seem to reap a couple of gems down low when other teams are drafting guys they’ll end up cutting 5 months later.

IMO, it’s a lot more fun when you’re doing your homework and building your team with your guys than it is just adhering to some dogmatic practice or plugging measurables and college data into some formula that misses half the time or more - because there’s no way to quantify guys who are just football players above all else, or who carry a ton of heart, instinct and football IQ onto the field.

 
If I felt Henderson was for sure going to have a better career than Jacobs I would still trade down and take Henderson at a spot where I am fairly certain I would be able to get him.

If I miss him and someone takes him higher than expected, so be it, that's a chance I am willing to take.  Maximizing value is an incredible asset over the life of a dynasty team.

When you HAVE to get "your guy", that is poor team management over the long term IMO.   

 
If I felt Henderson was for sure going to have a better career than Jacobs I would still trade down and take Henderson at a spot where I am fairly certain I would be able to get him.

If I miss him and someone takes him higher than expected, so be it, that's a chance I am willing to take.  Maximizing value is an incredible asset over the life of a dynasty team.

When you HAVE to get "your guy", that is poor team management over the long term IMO.   
I completely agree, that is the most reasonable way to go about it in most cases. What about this scenario-

You hold 1.1 and you want to trade down to take Henderson later. Gurley owner picks at 4, and is set at WR but not RB. No one wants to trade down unless it's pick 7-8. In most cases early this is the sweet spot to take Henderson, but not anymore, and in this case Gurley owner is drafting 4 and Henderson has gone as high as 4 at least from what I've seen on this board.

So do you stay at 1.1 and take your RB2 (Sanders) or RB4 (Jacobs), or do you take the top guy on your board? Sometimes you're forced to get "your guy" because you have no other option.

 
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I appreciate these comments a lot.  I understand where you’re coming from here - ADP should impact actions somewhat because you don’t want to reach a long ways.  But then the question becomes how far should you move down and still have certainty that you’ll get your guy?

Let’s say that you’re willing to be foolish and crazy and completely disregard Coop’s rigid insistence, and instead believe that Henderson will be a better FF producer than Jacobs or any other RB in this draft and is the best RB in the draft this year.  How far do you then trade down and still have certainty that you’ll be able to get him?  Is 1.08 too far?  This year, I believe so.  Drafts are all over the board.  How about 1.05?  Is there surety there?  If so, what happens if the owners of 1.02 to 1.05 are not interested in trading?  Well, according to Coop you are supposed to let the guy who in your judgment may be the best FF RB producer in the draft go elsewhere and either trade down further and let Henderson go elsewhere while accepting a lesser player; or just draft the guy who you think isn’t the best RB and is a bust candidate in the draft at 1.01.

My point is that if you do your vetting, both internally and through sounding boards that you consider reliable and knowledgeable, and you still think Henderson is the best guy on the board, then yeah - you take the plunge and reach for him.  Better that and trying to pluck value later in the draft in the event he does bust than to just go status quo and take a lesser guy to watch the guy you thought was a stud blow up on someone else’s team.  

If you watch the teams that are more successful in the NFL draft make their picks, that’s what they do.  Let the common “knowledge” be damned and go get the guys they think are players, ignore when the “draft experts” roast them for reaching, and get their last laugh in the end.  And even when they do make mistakes up high, which happens to every team, they always seem to reap a couple of gems down low when other teams are drafting guys they’ll end up cutting 5 months later.

IMO, it’s a lot more fun when you’re doing your homework and building your team with your guys than it is just adhering to some dogmatic practice or plugging measurables and college data into some formula that misses half the time or more - because there’s no way to quantify guys who are just football players above all else, or who carry a ton of heart, instinct and football IQ onto the field.
Completely agree. It's always advisable to try trading back a bit but that's not always possible. I'd rather be wrong with the player I like best on my team than be right but someone else has him b/c I didn't want to "reach" a few spots higher. 

 
Talent + Opportunity
I had Henderson ranked ahead of Jacobs pre-draft, but you have to admit no one truly knows how the "talent" part will project and the "opportunity" heavily favors Jacobs at this point based on draft capitol expended and competition. We are all just assuming Gurley's workload gets scaled back but even a "hobbled" Gurley is a bigger hurdle for playing time than Doug Martin. Heck Malcom Brown is better than Martin at this point.

Like I said I ranked Henderson over Jacobs, pre-draft and while I have not been in position to make a choice, I'd probably have to play the odds and reluctantly go with Jacobs if I was in that position. 

 
I would call it the NFL FO community making me take Jacobs. I have Deebo Samuel and Marqise Brown ahead of Dk Metcalf, which goes against rookie ADP set be the FF community. 
Jacobs and Brown are not the best examples.  All we know is that one of 32 front offices liked them better than Deebo and Metcalf... ot that the FO community was high on Jacobs,

For me, it is easier to factor in the collective wisdom of front offices with guys that fall.  All 32 teams had multiple opportunities to drsft a guy like Butler and did not, plus many of them took other receivers.  That says a lot about how they value Butler.  But some offices never even had a shot at Jacobs to show us what they thought of him.

 
I had Henderson ranked ahead of Jacobs pre-draft, but you have to admit no one truly knows how the "talent" part will project and the "opportunity" heavily favors Jacobs at this point based on draft capitol expended and competition. We are all just assuming Gurley's workload gets scaled back but even a "hobbled" Gurley is a bigger hurdle for playing time than Doug Martin. Heck Malcom Brown is better than Martin at this point.

Like I said I ranked Henderson over Jacobs, pre-draft and while I have not been in position to make a choice, I'd probably have to play the odds and reluctantly go with Jacobs if I was in that position. 
This is exactly my position on the matter.

People are making "Henderson v. Jacobs" into a binary choice when it's nothing of the sort. In reality, you could trade down to 1.08 and the Gurley owner may decide that Malcolm Brown got that extension for a reason and pass on him. Or he may be trying to go for broke in 2019 and decides Sanders offers better short-term value. Or you could stay at 1.01, take Jacobs, and even in a not-overly-rosy scenario where he at least holds down the lead role, flip him for a piece(s) far more valuable then Henderson (recall that after just such a rookie season, Trent Richardson was commanding multiple high-1sts).

By taking Jacobs at 1.01 or by trading down, a lot of things could go right. By standing on principle and taking Henderson 1.01, a lot of things have to go right. That's the difference.

 
I completely agree, that is the most reasonable way to go about it in most cases. What about this scenario-

You hold 1.1 and you want to trade down to take Henderson later. Gurley owner picks at 4, and is set at WR but not RB. No one wants to trade down unless it's pick 7-8. In most cases early this is the sweet spot to take Henderson, but not anymore, and in this case Gurley owner is drafting 4 and Henderson has gone as high as 4 at least from what I've seen on this board.

So do you stay at 1.1 and take your RB2 (Sanders) or RB4 (Jacobs), or do you take the top guy on your board? Sometimes you're forced to get "your guy" because you have no other option.
I would trade down to 7 or 8 and take the chance the Gurley owner doesn't go way above henderson's ADP.

If he does take Henderson at 4, oh well, cause chances are I got a decent deal to move down, and I will just make do with the picks/players I get in the deal.

 
Jacobs and Brown are not the best examples.  All we know is that one of 32 front offices liked them better than Deebo and Metcalf... ot that the FO community was high on Jacobs,

For me, it is easier to factor in the collective wisdom of front offices with guys that fall.  All 32 teams had multiple opportunities to drsft a guy like Butler and did not, plus many of them took other receivers.  That says a lot about how they value Butler.  But some offices never even had a shot at Jacobs to show us what they thought of him.
Keep in mind NFL teams draft guys who they think will make their team better, not necessarily the guys they think will have the best fantasy stats..  shocking I know.

 
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I would trade down to 7 or 8 and take the chance the Gurley owner doesn't go way above henderson's ADP.

If he does take Henderson at 4, oh well, cause chances are I got a decent deal to move down, and I will just make do with the picks/players I get in the deal.
Yeah that's where we disagree. In a draft where I might like 6 or 7 guys total, and only 1 RB, I'd rather grab my guy. especially if I need a RB. If I didnt have a need for RB depth maybe I'd take this route. Every dynasty owners needs are different 

 
Yeah that's where we disagree. In a draft where I might like 6 or 7 guys total, and only 1 RB, I'd rather grab my guy. especially if I need a RB. If I didnt have a need for RB depth maybe I'd take this route. Every dynasty owners needs are different 
I dont draft for need.  I also never need to get "my guy".

Knowing my limitations on predicting the careers of players has allowed me to make numerous value deals that many people might not make, and it has helped my teams tremendously along the way.  

The more value I have on my team the more I am able to grab "my guys" when they are available to me at market value.

 
I completely agree, that is the most reasonable way to go about it in most cases. What about this scenario-

You hold 1.1 and you want to trade down to take Henderson later. Gurley owner picks at 4, and is set at WR but not RB. No one wants to trade down unless it's pick 7-8. In most cases early this is the sweet spot to take Henderson, but not anymore, and in this case Gurley owner is drafting 4 and Henderson has gone as high as 4 at least from what I've seen on this board.

So do you stay at 1.1 and take your RB2 (Sanders) or RB4 (Jacobs), or do you take the top guy on your board? Sometimes you're forced to get "your guy" because you have no other option.
Everyone has their own strategy, but my one of my own is never to bypass value/opportunity in order to secure a backup.

I -like- Henderson, but not at 4.  There's guys who have a clearer path to starting and production that I would rather have, at least in the short term.  If the Gurley owner is hurting at RB, he's far better off taking a projected starter on a different team rather than banking on a single starter's worth of production from two players (and a super-premium draft pick).

 
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I would trade down to 7 or 8 and take the chance the Gurley owner doesn't go way above henderson's ADP.

If he does take Henderson at 4, oh well, cause chances are I got a decent deal to move down, and I will just make do with the picks/players I get in the deal.
My stance exactly. If you prefer Henderson to Jacobs - great, trade back and get value; trade out and get value - but get value. 

If you trade back and are sniped, take the next guy on your board. But falling in love with a single guy in a class, to the point where you’re reaching 5-10 premium spots - that seems like a bad bet to me.

I’m guilty of using it, but “get your guy” is cliche and bad advice more often than not. Get value. 

Edit: If you’re truly stuck, take your guy, I guess. But make sure you’re truly stuck. 

 
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This is exactly my position on the matter.

People are making "Henderson v. Jacobs" into a binary choice when it's nothing of the sort. In reality, you could trade down to 1.08 and the Gurley owner may decide that Malcolm Brown got that extension for a reason and pass on him. Or he may be trying to go for broke in 2019 and decides Sanders offers better short-term value. Or you could stay at 1.01, take Jacobs, and even in a not-overly-rosy scenario where he at least holds down the lead role, flip him for a piece(s) far more valuable then Henderson (recall that after just such a rookie season, Trent Richardson was commanding multiple high-1sts).

By taking Jacobs at 1.01 or by trading down, a lot of things could go right. By standing on principle and taking Henderson 1.01, a lot of things have to go right. That's the difference.


It makes for an easier discussion.  But in the end, whichever performs better in accumulating FF stats was the better pick at equivalent draft capital.  By taking Jacobs 1.01 and having him put up pedestrian stats is just as big a difference maker on your team as the same thing happening with Henderson.  Theoretically you ought to be able to maintain higher overall draft capital with a wait for Henderson, but beyond pick 1.03/1.04 there’s no guarantee he’s there to be drafted.  If he’s your guy and you’re sitting at 1.01, you’re going to need a draft partner in the next 3 picks and then there’s still no lock one of the others doesn’t grab Henderson.  You’re looking at current expectations when you make your conclusion.  

What happens if Jacobs is pedestrian and Henderson turns into Kamara2.0 or Gurley ends up limited or worse with the allegedly arthritic knee?  Then who would have been the better choice at 1.01?  That’s not everything going right for Henderson while everything goes wrong for Jacobs - that could be a very real and reasonable perception of future events by someone drafting in FF this year.

.

 
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My stance exactly. If you prefer Henderson to Jacobs - great, trade back and get value; trade out and get value - but get value. 

If you trade back and are sniped, take the next guy on your board. But falling in love with a single guy in a class, to the point where you’re reaching 5-10 premium spots - that seems like a bad bet to me.

I’m guilty of using it, but “get your guy” is cliche and bad advice more often than not. Get value. 

Edit: If you’re truly stuck, take your guy, I guess. But make sure you’re truly stuck. 
I think this is a more reasonable discussion to have, but I think in a draft year where I'm not convinced there is much value, I'll take the guys high on my board. Of course I want to trade down, but that isnt always an option. In my main league I traded down from 3 to 6 and from 6 to 8, ending up with picks 7-10 which is exactly where I wanted to be. Netted me Deebo and Ebron as a result. No regrets as I still got my guys. I may not be as lucky in other drafts but I guess I can read the scenario when it presents itself 

 
Any of you guys who got Henderson in late 1st or early 2nd tried to use the increasing recent buzz to try and make deals for guys who went in the 5-8 range in those drafts?

 
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Any of you guys who got Henderson in late 1st or early 2nd tried to use the increasing buzz to try and make deals for guys who went in the 5-8 range in those drafts?


I got him at 2.01 in a 14 teamer by trading up from 2.04.  But I also believe he’s the best RB in this draft and have no interest in trading into players that went in that range.  I’m comfortable being in the minority with my valuation and holding.

 
Any of you guys who got Henderson in late 1st or early 2nd tried to use the increasing recent buzz to try and make deals for guys who went in the 5-8 range in those drafts?
5-8 is about the range he went in most of my drafts, heck he went 4 in one of them, the last league I own Gurley and was planning to take him at 7.

I got him twice, at pick 10 and 12.  Since the pick 12 was just two days ago I'm pretty sure his value has not changed in that league. The league I got him at 10 was close to two weeks ago, Damian Williams was in that draft because this league had a terrible rule which has since changed were waivers ended after week 13 so really as rookie #9.  In that league and most TE premium leagues I would turn him into Harry,  Jacobs, Sanders, Montgomery, Hock and Fant if I could but that's it and in non-TE premium leagues I'd take him over the Iowa's. In other words in FFPC he is my 8th ranked player in a vacuum and in single PPR he is number 6.

 
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IMO, it’s a lot more fun when you’re doing your homework and building your team with your guys than it is just adhering to some dogmatic practice or plugging measurables and college data into some formula that misses half the time or more - because there’s no way to quantify guys who are just football players above all else, or who carry a ton of heart, instinct and football IQ onto the field.
I can agree in the fun of doing your homework. I love this part of the year and the months leading up to now. I enjoy the methodical research, having opinions, watching film and all that stuff. 

But what would I be doing it all for, if not to make the best decision at the draft? Falling in love with a player, a mistake I've made before and learned from, I wont do again. I now approach the draft as an actuary, leaving emotion out of it. Trying to figure out the best thing to do, to me is the best part. Even if I'm acknowledging my own ignorance. 

 
Bronco Billy said:
What happens if Jacobs is pedestrian and Henderson turns into Kamara 2.0 or Gurley ends up limited or worse with the allegedly arthritic knee?  Then who would have been the better choice at 1.01?  That’s not everything going right for Henderson while everything goes wrong for Jacobs - that could be a very real and reasonable perception of future events by someone drafting in FF this year.
Anything could happen. Elijah Holyfield could wind up being the best RB in this draft class. You have to look at what's most likely to happen within the (extremely broad) range of outcomes these 21- and 22-year-olds possess.

And yes, of course there's a value component at play as well. The 1.01 on average is worth maybe two 1.08's. If you're in the market for a new set of golf clubs and your choices were a $1,000 set or a $2,000 set ... even if you preferred the $1,000 set, would you really be willing to pay $2,000 for them?

 
Desperate for RB help and sitting on 1.03.  I like Henderson a lot.  Gurley owner (relatively new to dynasty) is at 1.04.  Wondering if I try to sell him on Henderson and move back one to pick up some more draft capital or just pull the trigger.  I really need help everywhere so I will probably try option A and then go with option B if I can't get anything of value out of Gurley owner.

 
Desperate for RB help and sitting on 1.03.  I like Henderson a lot.  Gurley owner (relatively new to dynasty) is at 1.04.  Wondering if I try to sell him on Henderson and move back one to pick up some more draft capital or just pull the trigger.  I really need help everywhere so I will probably try option A and then go with option B if I can't get anything of value out of Gurley owner.
That's also a good way to find out if he even wants Henderson.  If not move back even further and still get him

 
This whole thread makes me uncomfortable at 7.  Luckily the guy with Gurley traded his entire 2019 draft last season to get Barkley so I don't have to worry about him.

 
The guy with 1.1 had a terrible roster.  The guy who wanted Barkley needed one player to make it over the top (he won last year so it worked). Traded his whole 2018 and 2019 draft for 1.1, pretty much a godfather offer.

 
The guy with 1.1 had a terrible roster.  The guy who wanted Barkley needed one player to make it over the top (he won last year so it worked). Traded his whole 2018 and 2019 draft for 1.1, pretty much a godfather offer.
2 firsts, 2 seconds, etc from the best team in the league? Rookie draft fever, because that’s pretty poor.

 
Anything could happen. Elijah Holyfield could wind up being the best RB in this draft class. You have to look at what's most likely to happen within the (extremely broad) range of outcomes these 21- and 22-year-olds possess.

And yes, of course there's a value component at play as well. The 1.01 on average is worth maybe two 1.08's. If you're in the market for a new set of golf clubs and your choices were a $1,000 set or a $2,000 set ... even if you preferred the $1,000 set, would you really be willing to pay $2,000 for them?


Are you telling me right now that you know Jacobs is the $2k set and Henderson is the $1k set?  Before they’ve ever played a down in the NFL?  Give me the winner of the 2020 Superbowl please.  I’ll expect a warranty.  I’ll return the favor. I’ll warranty that Holyfield isn’t the $2k set.

 
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Traded his whole 2018 and 2019 draft for 1.1, pretty much a godfather offer.
Two 1sts and two 2nds is a ####### terrible offer, and it was last year as well.

Granted, I say this as someone who traded Rodgers and Hilton for 1.01 in a league last year.

 
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Are you telling me right now that you know Jacobs is the $2k set and Henderson is the $1k set?  Before they’ve ever played a down in the NFL?  Give me the winner of the 2020 Superbowl please.  I’ll expect a warranty.  I’ll return the favor. I’ll warranty that Holyfield isn’t the $2k set.
You didn't understand the analogy.  

 
Two 1sts and two 2nds is a ####### terrible offer, and it was last year as well.

Granted, I say this as someone who traded Rodgers and Hilton for 1.01 in a league last year.
That wasn't the offer. 2018 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th and 2019 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th.

 
You know what's worthless in this context? Taking a straight-line , upright running, undersized, backup RB #1 overall. He does have McVay though. G/L to the Darren Henderson truthers.

:pokey:

 
Man, it's bit difficult to gauge Henderson's value in rookie draft.  He goes anywhere between high 1.07 to low 2.08 in PPR league.  What's your take on this guy? 

 
Man, it's bit difficult to gauge Henderson's value in rookie draft.  He goes anywhere between high 1.07 to low 2.08 in PPR league.  What's your take on this guy? 
In a draft with 3 starting rbs (if you want to call Sanders starting) Henderson has Kamara upside in one of the NFLs best offenses behind a great rb who spent the playoffs on the sidelines with a mysterious injury and a potential arthritic knee. If you want a safe pick wait on him. If you want the chance to hit a home run grab him early.

Personally I'm buying at 7.

 
This will be a fun thread to bump
Yep.  I like Henderson.  Took him 7th in ffpc after Jacob's, Sanders, hockenson, harry, montgomery, Fant.   I actually had him ranked 7th and my entire top 6 went before my pick.   That never happens.

Will be fun if Gurley has issues.  Otherwise he will just be a COP backup.  That's just the truth of it.

 

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