Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The point someone made was that they cut him.
that seems like a different point than he’s still there.
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RB David Johnson, Retired (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Biabreakable
- Start date
that seems like a different point than he’s still there.
Jayded
Footballguy
As a Texans fan that resembles the article above (not over it yet) I’ll offer a few points I considered during my draft this year:
1. The Texans didn’t draft a RB
2. They had Duke last year and still signed Hyde and still criminally underused Duke
3. The fan base is still mad about the trade
With the above, I’m buying DJ this year. He’s being drafted in RB3 territory and is exactly where I got him. I think the lynchpin for me is the Texans HAVE to be right about him in flipping Hopkins for him. So, they will have to give him every opportunity to show the trade isn’t as awful as we all think it was. That screams touches and DJ has the talent to crush his ADP if, yes big if, he can stay healthy.
1. The Texans didn’t draft a RB
2. They had Duke last year and still signed Hyde and still criminally underused Duke
3. The fan base is still mad about the trade
With the above, I’m buying DJ this year. He’s being drafted in RB3 territory and is exactly where I got him. I think the lynchpin for me is the Texans HAVE to be right about him in flipping Hopkins for him. So, they will have to give him every opportunity to show the trade isn’t as awful as we all think it was. That screams touches and DJ has the talent to crush his ADP if, yes big if, he can stay healthy.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Where do you see him going as an rb3? Every draft I have done and all the ADP's I see have him as a top 50ish pick and rb 18 to 24.
Jayded
Footballguy
Depends on dynasty and redraft but I play more in dynasty. Many dynasty rankings have his ADP more in the 80-100 range.
Main point is still many seem so focused on Johnson not being equal to Hopkins that I think he’s undervalued for the opportunity he’s almost going to have to get based on what they gave up to get to him.
Catbird
Footballguy
I think the trade hapened because BOB didn't like DeAndre or how much of a team leader he was and really didn't want to have to bring him back for what he has earned in a new contract. Others facing that issue weren;t going take on Hopkins and that big salary coming up AND give away a lot additionally in player value. I think DJ was the highest profile player the Texans could get back - because his last year was so obismal that AZ would give him in the deal as that cleared salary they would need to sign Nuc. I'm sure the Texans will give DJ every chance to be the guy. A very good runner who can catch is a lot harder to defend than a mediocre runner who can catch. The question is whether the DJ who shows up is at least a good shadow of his former self and able to fill the role, or the washed up, over-the-hill RB he looked like last season. I fear its the latter.
Milkman
Footballguy
I'm not in love with this spot for DJ but it's not bad and has the potential to be great.
2016 DJ was truely amazing. He is basically a pro bowl level WR and a good RB all in one. That was a magical year that brought me a title and probably a lot of other owners a title. One of the best years a RB has ever had but I think 2016 DJ is gone forever.
Having said that, he's still going to get all the carries he can handle and he was great last year through 6-7 games. I mean like top 5 RB in the league good. He's in line for 230+ carries easy. Carlos Hyde ran for 1k behind this line. Why not DJ? The GL is DJ's as well so he has a double digit TD ceiling. So all's good right?
Here's the problem (well small problem):
Duke Johnson.
Duke Johnson isn't going to take all the 3rd down work but he's going to take some. He's not great but decent and he's established. It's going to cap DJ's upside a bit and in an area that he's maybe the best in the league at. There is a chance that DJ pushes Duke off the field completely but it will probably take half the year if it even happens. So it's tough to see DJ with more than 50 receptions and more likely he gets 30ish.......
If he stays healthy. (Big if at this point)
Rushing 240-1000-8 (with lead the league in rushing TD upside)
Receiving 31-270-1
Would anybody be upset getting that from a 3rd round pick?
2016 DJ was truely amazing. He is basically a pro bowl level WR and a good RB all in one. That was a magical year that brought me a title and probably a lot of other owners a title. One of the best years a RB has ever had but I think 2016 DJ is gone forever.
Having said that, he's still going to get all the carries he can handle and he was great last year through 6-7 games. I mean like top 5 RB in the league good. He's in line for 230+ carries easy. Carlos Hyde ran for 1k behind this line. Why not DJ? The GL is DJ's as well so he has a double digit TD ceiling. So all's good right?
Here's the problem (well small problem):
Duke Johnson.
Duke Johnson isn't going to take all the 3rd down work but he's going to take some. He's not great but decent and he's established. It's going to cap DJ's upside a bit and in an area that he's maybe the best in the league at. There is a chance that DJ pushes Duke off the field completely but it will probably take half the year if it even happens. So it's tough to see DJ with more than 50 receptions and more likely he gets 30ish.......
If he stays healthy. (Big if at this point)
Rushing 240-1000-8 (with lead the league in rushing TD upside)
Receiving 31-270-1
Would anybody be upset getting that from a 3rd round pick?
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az_prof
Footballguy
That seems like a reasonable projection. In my 1 pt ppr league that would equate to 212 fantasy points and in 2019 would place him at RB18, between Kenyon Drake and James White.
Would anybody be upset getting that from a 3rd round pick? Well, basically that production equals an average RB2. Drafting him in the third you are probably taking him as your RB2. So, he doesn't hurt you but he doesn't help you.
But here is the downside to taking him there.
1) There is not much upside; in other words, unless Houston completely shelves Duke it is hard to see him doing much better than this. So RB18 is near his ceiling.
2) There is a real chance of the downside happening; he gets hurt again or Duke plays well enough to get a larger split or his body really has degraded to the point that he isn't a very good runner anymore.
On the positive side, you can back him up with Duke pretty cheaply--maybe in the 11th or 12th rounds.
Bottom line: getting him in the third is not good value but if you can get him in the fourth I would be all over that.
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Milkman
Footballguy
That's fair but I don't think you're not accounting for his TD ceiling. If everything breaks right he could have 15 TDs. That's a good offense with a good/great QB. His ceiling is still top 8ish RB......imo......
jm192
Footballguy
15 seems incredibly optimistic IMO. Especially with a mobile QB loke Watson stealing goal line TD’s
kutta
Footballguy
I would be shocked with 31 receptions. As you said, he’s. Pro bowl level WR. I could see them mixing Duke in here and there, but I think DJ is going to get every chance to be the 3 down back there.
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Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah I see that as possible too but with no training camp it's going to take a while. Longer than normal. He is the best receiving back in the league when healthy imo but he's had no time with Watson.
Milkman
Footballguy
jm192
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
Is it? What other RB have a 15 TD ceiling? I agree there are more but I wouldn't neccesarily say it's a lot.It’s the ceiling for a lot of people
McCaffrey
Saquon
Fournette
Kamara
Jones
Zeke
Mixon
Chubb
Cook
Conner
I might be missing someone.
jm192
Footballguy
I don’t see Johnson sniffing 15 TD’s. I don’t agree that’s his ceiling. He’s done it once in his career. Watson isn’t helping that effort.
If you’re simply saying “he could do it,” sure. So can 20 RB’s.
I don’t put Johnson in the group you listed above. I also don’t think Fournette belongs.
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah people hated Derrick Henry before he popped too. Meh fair enough. I agree with you that it's unlikely but I do see a path to 15 TDs for DJ pretty easily. He just has to stay healthy. He's better than Hyde so projecting he'll do better than Hyde is not out of the question.
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msudaisy26
Footballguy
Boston
Footballguy
Agreed...the Hopkins factor is a real football issue, he needs to be looked at on his own for fantasy...BOB took a ton of heat for this deal, gotta believe he does everything possible to put him in a position to have a big year.
Milkman
Footballguy
Right so two big questions.
Does DJ stay healthy?
Does the houston offense continue to be good enough to support a top RB?
They were 13th in yards a game last year. I wouldn't want them dropping much.. ...
jm192
Footballguy
This isn’t before Johnson popped. Johnson popped in 2016. We’ve seen multiple injuries since then.
Henry may hit 15 TD’s as he’ll get 325+ touches. Johnson likely doesn’t hit 300.
”Easy path” and “15 TD’s” rarely go together. If you feel strongly he can get to 15 TD’s, you should take him 2nd round.
Milkman
Footballguy
jm192
Footballguy
Yes.
I think 1,000 rushing yards and a receiving boost is reasonable. I think 10 TD’s is more his ceiling. 6-8 more reasonable
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bostonfred
Footballguy
If he had an easy path to 15 touchdowns he should be an early first round pick.mjm192 said:
He's not, because people are overreacting to his injury history. His adp will rise dramatically as we get to august, and go from being a huge value pick to a risk/reward.
He catches the ball well, although he has competition. He is likely to get over 15 touches a game, and could get closer to 20 based on his career usage, the Texans investment in him, and Duke's career usage. He has little competition for goal line carries, and has had good success as both a runner and receiver in that area.
He's 28 and has had seemingly unrelated injuries - but he's had a lot of them. So you need to have quality depth to go with him.
But at his current price, you can have him as your rb2. That's not going to last. It never does. Every single year this happens.
There are a few reasons for this. One, it's early, and running back situations are still unstable. One guy might think he can wait and take Jonathan Taylor, the other thinks he can wait longer and take Mack. Rb looks deep in the spring, but it looks different in the fall.
Another reason is that the supposed rb depth makes people consider receivers earlier than in August drafts. Right now, receiver seems to dry up quicker than it does in later drafts. The opportunity to get a stud rb1, wr1s and still pick up strong backs later in the draft. If you hit, it's a great strategy. But it only works while your sleepers are still sleeping.
Lastly, the dynasty drafters are in full force. Website adp is getting influenced by rookie drafts, pushing up guys like ceh and taylor, but then a lot of those football junkies are doing best ball leagues to pass the time, and they are in love with youth. That always pushes the risky vet down.
If you are the type of guy who does a million best ball drafts for cheap money,this is the time to load up on shares of those later round backs with stud potential. Johnson is definitely one of them. If you're risk averse, you won't win spring best balls, because somebody will be the one to get that game winner in the 6th.
Milkman
Footballguy
DJ's a sneaky top 10 RB for me but I understand why people are fading him. His injury history is weird too. The wrist was a fluke in 2017 but last year he ran into a pile and he came out holding that wrist. It didn't look like anything but then he was basically done for the year. They said he had an ankle injury and clearly he wasn't running right but there wasn't a lot if info on what was wrong with him.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Obviously he's a much better receiver but I'm not sure Hyde isn't a better runner. Part of the problem is they have Duke as well and Johnson cant stay healthy.Milkman said:
nightmare
Footballguy
David Johnson in 3 FFPC 28 round best ball drafts. draft #1 pick 3.04 RB 21, draft #2 pick 4.02 RB20, draft #3 Pick 3.10, RB24.
The top 4 rookies start to fall hard in round 3-4, Helaire, Taylor, Swift and Akers. Johnson and L Bell are the last two "starters" that
get drafted. After that it's the RBBC guys. By starter i mean RBs that are looking at 200-220 carries or better. C Akers is part of
the starters. D Swift is just on the front side of the RBBC group.
Usually, this early you could get some steals at RB. Unless Swift and J.K Dobbins are anointed starters, their is not many steals.
The top 4 rookies start to fall hard in round 3-4, Helaire, Taylor, Swift and Akers. Johnson and L Bell are the last two "starters" that
get drafted. After that it's the RBBC guys. By starter i mean RBs that are looking at 200-220 carries or better. C Akers is part of
the starters. D Swift is just on the front side of the RBBC group.
Usually, this early you could get some steals at RB. Unless Swift and J.K Dobbins are anointed starters, their is not many steals.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
But it hasn't been since 2016 that he's had success. In 2018 he was RB11 and had 940/7 and 50/440/3 on a team that was good enough to earn the #1 overall and draft Kyler. He's only one year removed from that and he's a "young" 28 with not as many miles as most 28 year olds have. An "easy" path to 15 TD's is laughable but repeating double digits is very realistic and 15 is within a standard deviation or two from there. Playing on a better team with a much better QB that could feed him in the passing game we could see a bounce-back in the passing numbers. Teams don't play a guy like Duke Johnson just because he's good at something - this is the NFL they are all good at something. He has to be better than everyone else to get the role. David Johnson is playing on 3rd down as long as he's healthy period. I don't do projections but if I did I would be something like 225/900/8 and 60/500/5 for a top 10-ish finish.jm192 said:
I'm not nearly as afraid of his health as most are. When he doesn't play you don't take a donut you start someone else and lose a couple PPG but when he does he can put up RB1 numbers. Gimmie that in the 3rd all day long.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Last year he was running like some one with a bad ankle and jacked up back (he was so tentative in his movements) - if those things are healed up he should be fine. I no longer own him in dynasty and will likely avoid in redraft, but there is surely a scenario where he's healthy and productive. BOB has to use him to justify trading away Hopkins.
jm192
Footballguy
The 2016 comment was a response to "people didn't like Henry before he popped." Johnson isn't some guy that just hasn't shown it yet. It's not a situation where "Oh, you'll see how good he is."
I don't think Duke Johnson takes all of the 3rd down work. But I think he'll take some of it. Also, Johnson has NEVER hit 5 receiving TD's. He's hit 500 receiving yards once in his career. I just don't envision a guy at 28, coming off an injury plagued season having career high in receiving TD's and topping a yardage mark he's hit once.
To clarify, depending on where he goes, I'm probably going to have some shares of Johnson.
But I think realistically you're looking at 275-280 touches, 900-1000 rushing yards, 400 receiving yards, 8-10 Total TD's--assuming 16 games.
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voiceofunreason
Footballguy
I think Duke having more points then him at the end of the year is more possible then many would like to believe. And I do own him in a dynasty league so I’m happy being wrong. But he hasn’t averaged over 3.7 ypc in 3 years or hit a thousand yards rushing. When the only thing a rb has going for him is touches, a lot of bad things can happen.
The only real hope is that he didn’t care after getting paid and now he’ll try because he’s close to a new contract again. My money is on him not liking getting beat up and he’s ready to ride off into the sunset. He looks done to me.
Of all the positions in the game RB is the one where desire to play and the love of your team mean the most.
Touches and opportunity are given at an early age and guys wear down fast. Mentally they wear down faster.
DJ doesn't strike me as a guy who has the heart or the desire any more. Let's look at Frank Gore who has a pure will to win that took him and his team's on and on. As a coach that's what I want in a RB .
I don't envisage good things at all for DJ.
Touches and opportunity are given at an early age and guys wear down fast. Mentally they wear down faster.
DJ doesn't strike me as a guy who has the heart or the desire any more. Let's look at Frank Gore who has a pure will to win that took him and his team's on and on. As a coach that's what I want in a RB .
I don't envisage good things at all for DJ.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I strongly disagree with this take, but i understand where it's coming from.
Johnson played hurt and started a game where he had multiple injuries, then was replaced by Edmunds who told the media that Johnson was a warrior and playing more hurt than anyone knew. Edmunds had a great game but got hurt and then Johnson came back and played hurt again. Everyone who watched him said he looked terrible - the debate is whether he looked worse because he was hurt or because he's done.
He's entering his age 28 season and there's a real risk that he's done in the sense that he continues to get hurt. That's fair. His body might be breaking down. The argument against that is that his injuries have not related. It's not 3 injuries to the same knee. He's had a wrist, ankle, and then i think it's some kind of back and some kind of lower leg injury last year but it seems to be unclear.
People also point to his best year and say he hadn't done that since. But they had their third string quarterback and badly injured line one year, were the worst team in the NFL another, and then last year he played a million ambassadors with a rookie quarterback and no offensive linemen and was asked to block linemen on top of getting more snaps as a running back.
I won't argue with anyone who says he's not good anymore, as long as they've considered all the facts. But I don't agree that lack iof heart or will to win is the issue.
I do agree he's a risk though. There's just a lot of good reasons to think a change of scenery might help him this year. Boom/bust.
Milkman
Footballguy
What was DJ before he got hurt?
People don't realize he was top 5ish RB through 5-6 weeks.
kutta
Footballguy
To @Milkman's point above. After 6 weeks, DJ was RB5 in PPR (the same as Drake was after he started). He got hurt in week 7. His weekly scoring was:
25.70
7.40
18.50
22.90
19.60
27.20
So it wasn't like he had one huge outlier week. He was pretty consistently scoring well. The only RB's ahead of him were McCafffery, Cook, Ekeler, and Chubb.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I wasn't pointing out that the team was bad last year. They had kyler murray last year, who they took with the first overall pick because they were bad in 2018.
They have had absurd injuries at quarterback and offensive line before last year, and those inarguably hurt Johnson.
Johnson had 613 total yards and 5 touchdowns while catching 30 passes in his first 6 games last year before getting hurt. He averaged over 4 ypc up to that point despite playing the ravens and seahawks in 2 of those six games.
When we talk about him being injury prone, or wearing down, it begs the question, is he a greater injury risk than most? Does he deserve the no heart label? Or is there a reason he was taking a beating, and did that change?
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/snap-counts/rb.php
Through 6 weeks, Johnson was 2nd in the NFL in RB snap count to McCaffrey.
He did this while playing in a spread offense which means he did not have extra blockers, and he had to block defensive linemen.
He did this while averaging 18 touches a game.
2018 he was 6th in the NFL in rb snap count.
Tough workload plus bad line and QB play and a system that relies on him to block... I think the narratives that he's done or injury prone or breaking down or played badly are all a bit misguided.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Here are the TEAM running back totals in HOU since Watson got there.
2019: 342-1530-8 rushing, 55-461-3 receiving (397 total touches and 11 total TD)
2018: 367-1471-7 rushing, 50-380-2 receiving (417 total touches and 9 total TD)
2017: 396-1491-6 rushing, 67-605-3 receiving (463 total touches and 9 total TD)
Johnson has averaged 12.6 carries, 3.4 receptions, and .77 TD per game over his career. That projects to 256 touches in a season.
I'm struggling to see how Johnson could get to 15 total TD unless he basically takes on a giant workload and the Texans hardly use their other backs. As it is, the trend has been for them to use their RBs less (not more), although injuries likely had something to do with that.
Milkman
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
If the offensive system HOU runs does not support many TD's by running backs, I don't think we can just project DJ for way more TDs. Over the past 3 seasons, HOU RB have scored 29 total TD. By comparison, the Patriots group of RB scored 68 TD and the Saints RB group scored 66 in that time.
This will be Johnson's age 29 season. Here were the YPC numbers for ARI RB since 2017 (minimum 100 carries):
Kenyan Drake 5.23
Chase Edmonds 4.26
David Johnson 3.61
Kerwynn Williams 3.55
Adrian Peterson 3.47
Of the 96 RB with at least 100 total carries across 2017-2019, Johnson ranked tied for 82nd in YPC. Maybe he has more in the tank than I am giving him credit for, but I am not sure his YPC is going to start going up dramatically at age 29. Also, Johnson over the last 3 seasons has scored 16 total TD in 30 games played. Bottom line, I would be very surprised if David Johnson started scoring TD at a rate double than he has been scoring the past 3 seasons.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
As others have said, it's pretty easy to come up with extreme ceilings for pretty much anyone on any team "if everything works out perfectly." Here were the # of RB that scored 15 total TD over the last decade (starting with 2010): 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0, 3, 1, 3, 4 = 17 total times. The point being, even in perfect storm outcomes, very few RB get to 15 TD in a season.
Ceilings and crazy upside predictions aside, what would you suggest would be a reasonable projection for this upcoming season for Johnson without crazy things happening (ie, every other RB on the team is hurt for the season and can't play . . . or suddenly the OL features 5 HOF players)?
Milkman
Footballguy
No it's not. I even named the guys with that same ceiling. Look if you thought I was projecting him to score 15 TDs "you" misread what I wrote. If you think it's easy to give a bunch of guys a 15 TD ceiling then you effectively agree with me.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I don’t personally think Johnson has a ceiling of 15 TD this year. I think he is a fraction of his old self, he is not going to keep other backs off the field, the system is the same, and the offense went backwards by trading Hopkins. But you didn’t post a projection, so I am not sure what you think will actually happen.
I think those YPC numbers aren't really relevant at all. Drake and Edmonds were healthy and in an offense that was in full swing with Kyler Murray, most of Johnson was with Rosen/Bradford, in a completely disfunctional offense called by incompetent coaches. Johnson was a solid RB1 last season before he got hurt last year. He was RB6 I believe. That was mostly due to his pass catching skill, but is that going anywhere? He's a FAR better pass catcher than any RB the Texans have had since Arian Foster, and they are likely to target the RB position more with Hopkins gone.Anarchy99 said:
I'm not a huge Johnson fan, though I think he's a solid RB2, who is likely to be drafted later than he should be based on being burned by him recently.
Faust
MVP
Are We Sleeping on David Johnson, Todd Gurley, and Le’Veon Bell? (2020 Fantasy Football)
I can buy a set of nearly bald tires for my vehicle at a price that is a considerable discount from new tires; however, that doesn’t mean that I feel safe relying on those tires.
I can buy a set of nearly bald tires for my vehicle at a price that is a considerable discount from new tires; however, that doesn’t mean that I feel safe relying on those tires.
