RB Derrick Henry, BAL (5 Viewers)

[Ministry of Pain]

At Henry's YPC and Raven YPC averages, and considering their O line is a little worse this year,

Ravens haven’t had a back close to Henry since Ray or Jamal. Henry hasn’t had a OL this good… ever?

But 270 carries seems reasonable. Ravens averaged 4.9 ypc last year. 1300/15 seems a fair estimate.

Yeah, 1300 is his ceiling IMO. And this is banking that he gets back to close to 5 YPC which he hasn't done in over three years. Yes, I know TEN sucked, but he's also 3 years older and there are other stats to suggest a bit of a decline since then.

1500+ yards is what you should be predicting if he were in his prime and he didn't have a running QB taking 100+ carries.

What stats indicate a decline? His % of runs over 15 yards was the highest its been since 2019. His YAC/att was pretty close to his career average, and well above the NFL average. He was 9th in YAC/att and 6th in % of runs over 15 yards. Only CMC, Hall, Achane, and Warren were more efficient rushers than Henry last season.

I think its more likely Henry tops 5.0 YPC than he is to be down at 4.2 again. There is plenty of evidence that shows mobile/running QBs enhance YPC by at least .5 YPC. Most of that sample size is guys not in Henry's league.RBs can fall off fast, but Henry has shown nothing to suggest that he'll do it yet, unlike guys like Zeke and Cook who showed all telltale signs.

I think there's a solid case for Henry as RB2 behind only CMC. Not saying that's where I have him ranked, but its not hard to see that outcome.

Admittedly most of his declines can be mostly attributed to TEN being bad, but it’s hard to imagine there isn’t at least some slowdown from 3 years ago.

But that’s not my main argument. We can assume he hasn’t lost a step. The main variable here is still the number of carries he can realistically get.

I have him at 4.5 YPC right now. A marked improvement from Gus Edwards 4.1 and his best in years. Still can’t get him close to 1500+ yards.

To get to 1500+ yards, he would need at least 5 YPC with 300 carries. I just don’t see where all these carries are coming from.

300/17 games...18 carries a game? Do you think he will ever see 20 carries in a game this entire season? If he does that a handful of times, then he only needs 14-15 in most of the others
It's not that far fetched

I think the Ravens will use him plenty early in the season, as they start figuring out where they stack in the Playoff seeding, I can see Henry getting a rest or a made up injury on a specific cupcake week in Nov/Dec if that's on the schedule somewhere. They will want him to be somewhat fresh for the Playoffs but when a RB has 250+ carries on a season, how can you expect your RB to be truly be fresh so I also don't put much stock into this Grimm Fairytale we like to spin in here.

I appreciate you Scores, not gonna play tug o war over this, very happy if I land Henry in Rd 2 this year as my RB1 with a stud WR in the 1st, 3rd and a very strong entry as my WR3 in Rd 4 when all the top WRs are getting picked left and right. Come back in Rounds 5-9 where the value at RB seems to land.

What I meant is your POV is natural and I'm sure others feel like you do

 

[JoeJoe88]

I don’t think Keaton’s play last year was fluky and I do believe he’ll be heavily involved in the offense by mid-season.

Double digit tds I see as obtainable for The King, but I’d have a tough time putting him much north of 1200 rushing yards.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Running Backs in NFL History that Derrick Henry is likely to pass in 2024
He currently sits around 9,500 yds rushing over his career

Chris Johnson
Clinton Portis
Ricky Williams
Ottis Anderson
Marshawn Lynch
Eddie George
Jamal Lewis sits at No 25 overall in rushing history, same Ravens that Henry is now running the ball for.

 

[Scoresman]

At Henry's YPC and Raven YPC averages, and considering their O line is a little worse this year,

Ravens haven’t had a back close to Henry since Ray or Jamal. Henry hasn’t had a OL this good… ever?

But 270 carries seems reasonable. Ravens averaged 4.9 ypc last year. 1300/15 seems a fair estimate.

Yeah, 1300 is his ceiling IMO. And this is banking that he gets back to close to 5 YPC which he hasn't done in over three years. Yes, I know TEN sucked, but he's also 3 years older and there are other stats to suggest a bit of a decline since then.

1500+ yards is what you should be predicting if he were in his prime and he didn't have a running QB taking 100+ carries.

What stats indicate a decline? His % of runs over 15 yards was the highest its been since 2019. His YAC/att was pretty close to his career average, and well above the NFL average. He was 9th in YAC/att and 6th in % of runs over 15 yards. Only CMC, Hall, Achane, and Warren were more efficient rushers than Henry last season.

I think its more likely Henry tops 5.0 YPC than he is to be down at 4.2 again. There is plenty of evidence that shows mobile/running QBs enhance YPC by at least .5 YPC. Most of that sample size is guys not in Henry's league.RBs can fall off fast, but Henry has shown nothing to suggest that he'll do it yet, unlike guys like Zeke and Cook who showed all telltale signs.

I think there's a solid case for Henry as RB2 behind only CMC. Not saying that's where I have him ranked, but its not hard to see that outcome.

Admittedly most of his declines can be mostly attributed to TEN being bad, but it’s hard to imagine there isn’t at least some slowdown from 3 years ago.

But that’s not my main argument. We can assume he hasn’t lost a step. The main variable here is still the number of carries he can realistically get.

I have him at 4.5 YPC right now. A marked improvement from Gus Edwards 4.1 and his best in years. Still can’t get him close to 1500+ yards.

To get to 1500+ yards, he would need at least 5 YPC with 300 carries. I just don’t see where all these carries are coming from.

300/17 games...18 carries a game? Do you think he will ever see 20 carries in a game this entire season? If he does that a handful of times, then he only needs 14-15 in most of the others
It's not that far fetched

I think the Ravens will use him plenty early in the season, as they start figuring out where they stack in the Playoff seeding, I can see Henry getting a rest or a made up injury on a specific cupcake week in Nov/Dec if that's on the schedule somewhere. They will want him to be somewhat fresh for the Playoffs but when a RB has 250+ carries on a season, how can you expect your RB to be truly be fresh so I also don't put much stock into this Grimm Fairytale we like to spin in here.

I appreciate you Scores, not gonna play tug o war over this, very happy if I land Henry in Rd 2 this year as my RB1 with a stud WR in the 1st, 3rd and a very strong entry as my WR3 in Rd 4 when all the top WRs are getting picked left and right. Come back in Rounds 5-9 where the value at RB seems to land.

What I meant is your POV is natural and I'm sure others feel like you do

I see 300 carries as an absolute max considering Lamar Jackson exists and how it all fits into Baltimores total team carries. And then he needs to hit near career highs to hit the 1500+ or 1600 rushing yards people are saying is possible.

And this isn’t even taking into account how Baltimore over the last few seasons have been wanting to pass more.

 

[Bri]

He’s gonna go off this year .. he’s a steal at his current ADP… double digit TD’s and 1500+ yards

When people post crazy projections like this it makes me wonder if they remember Lamar Jackson still exists.

I do see the other replies.

Years ago, Tom Coughlin was brilliant and no one talks of it but he played 4 DE and they rocked on D. On offense, big Brandon Jacobs played the first Q then big Ward, then a combo in the third. In the fourth Q, Ahmad Bradshaw was absurd. He was too fast n shifty for a tired beat up defense to chase. His average was ridiculous some weeks. It may not show for the season but certain weeks were shocking.

Henry needing so many carries to get rolling often reminds me of Coughlin's Giants all wrapped in one guy. Random D- Steelers or Packers should hold up just fine but then there goes Henry for a sixty yard run and somehow took their pride in the fourth. How do you predict that?

This very Ravens team was stout but they often bent to his will. Harbaugh spoke of this and he IS going to wear some teams down. I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens brought in Hunt or Cook. Maybe add a FB. Yep there's no way they'll all be active or even make the team but he's determined to set a beast mode or smashmouth mindset in camp.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

At Henry's YPC and Raven YPC averages, and considering their O line is a little worse this year,

Ravens haven’t had a back close to Henry since Ray or Jamal. Henry hasn’t had a OL this good… ever?

But 270 carries seems reasonable. Ravens averaged 4.9 ypc last year. 1300/15 seems a fair estimate.

Yeah, 1300 is his ceiling IMO. And this is banking that he gets back to close to 5 YPC which he hasn't done in over three years. Yes, I know TEN sucked, but he's also 3 years older and there are other stats to suggest a bit of a decline since then.

1500+ yards is what you should be predicting if he were in his prime and he didn't have a running QB taking 100+ carries.

What stats indicate a decline? His % of runs over 15 yards was the highest its been since 2019. His YAC/att was pretty close to his career average, and well above the NFL average. He was 9th in YAC/att and 6th in % of runs over 15 yards. Only CMC, Hall, Achane, and Warren were more efficient rushers than Henry last season.

I think its more likely Henry tops 5.0 YPC than he is to be down at 4.2 again. There is plenty of evidence that shows mobile/running QBs enhance YPC by at least .5 YPC. Most of that sample size is guys not in Henry's league.RBs can fall off fast, but Henry has shown nothing to suggest that he'll do it yet, unlike guys like Zeke and Cook who showed all telltale signs.

I think there's a solid case for Henry as RB2 behind only CMC. Not saying that's where I have him ranked, but its not hard to see that outcome.

Admittedly most of his declines can be mostly attributed to TEN being bad, but it’s hard to imagine there isn’t at least some slowdown from 3 years ago.

But that’s not my main argument. We can assume he hasn’t lost a step. The main variable here is still the number of carries he can realistically get.

I have him at 4.5 YPC right now. A marked improvement from Gus Edwards 4.1 and his best in years. Still can’t get him close to 1500+ yards.

To get to 1500+ yards, he would need at least 5 YPC with 300 carries. I just don’t see where all these carries are coming from.

300/17 games...18 carries a game? Do you think he will ever see 20 carries in a game this entire season? If he does that a handful of times, then he only needs 14-15 in most of the others
It's not that far fetched

I think the Ravens will use him plenty early in the season, as they start figuring out where they stack in the Playoff seeding, I can see Henry getting a rest or a made up injury on a specific cupcake week in Nov/Dec if that's on the schedule somewhere. They will want him to be somewhat fresh for the Playoffs but when a RB has 250+ carries on a season, how can you expect your RB to be truly be fresh so I also don't put much stock into this Grimm Fairytale we like to spin in here.

I appreciate you Scores, not gonna play tug o war over this, very happy if I land Henry in Rd 2 this year as my RB1 with a stud WR in the 1st, 3rd and a very strong entry as my WR3 in Rd 4 when all the top WRs are getting picked left and right. Come back in Rounds 5-9 where the value at RB seems to land.

What I meant is your POV is natural and I'm sure others feel like you do

I see 300 carries as an absolute max considering Lamar Jackson exists and how it all fits into Baltimores total team carries. And then he needs to hit near career highs to hit the 1500+ or 1600 rushing yards people are saying is possible.

And this isn’t even taking into account how Baltimore over the last few seasons have been wanting to pass more.

They can wish/desire to pass all they want but they went out and signed one of the greatest RBs in the NFL over the last 6 years
When Henry was running for over 5 yds a carry, he had a tremendous OL and he now arrives at one fo the current best according to PFF

Gimme some box scores you predict when we open the papers on Monday Morning with our pencils and scratch pads


This isn't quite like CMC joining the Niners but it's an incredible landing spot for a guy that runs like Henry runs.
He's going to have some massive open holes to run through and if the Ravens ever figure out the passing game, all bets are off
What would that do if teams actually put 6-7 in the box vs Henry and the Ravens OL.
Maybe Henry can't quite book it 50-60 yds untouched but I'm sure he can chunk it for 20-25 yds a couple times a game when the opp is there.
Henry is a weapon not an albatross for the Ravens

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Derrick Henry Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Derrick Henry. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

Just so we all know what we are discussing, I know Scores is up on these stats but some might not have looked at the entire body of work.
He wasn't abused a lot when he first started, Rookie season and Year 2 wasn't overly used

378-349-303 in 3 of the last 5 seasons, 1 was cut down short because he went on the Madden cover

 

[Scoresman]

Derrick Henry Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Derrick Henry. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

Just so we all know what we are discussing, I know Scores is up on these stats but some might not have looked at the entire body of work.
He wasn't abused a lot when he first started, Rookie season and Year 2 wasn't overly used

378-349-303 in 3 of the last 5 seasons, 1 was cut down short because he went on the Madden cover

How many of those 3 seasons did he have a QB take 140-150 carries?

 

[menobrown]

Curtis Martin had like 1600 rushing yards at 31 years old … Henry is gonna be battery ram mode …Tennessee is meh to the last few years

If you notice the only RB of this age who had a season like that in that in about the last 15 years was Peterson's age 30 season. I don't think anyone else has hit 1,200 that was over 30 since then, for sure no one over 31 other then AP's big year since 2009.

But it was much more common in the era you referenced with Curtis. Tiki threw down a monster 1,800 yard season at Henry's age and then over 1,600 at age 31. Thomas Jones in the same era came in at over 1,400 yards at age 31.

But like I said since then it's incredibly rare with zero seasons of 1,500 for 30+ year old RB's though we do have an extra game and AP was close but that was one season really unlike any other RB of a similar age for pure rushing production.

I've been contending for years around here that RB's and WR's are aging worse then they used to though I can't exactly quantify why.

Is Henry an outlier? He seems to be in many ways so I'd say yes, but people need to understand when you are predicting 1,500 plus you are predicting something that has not been done by a RB his age in 15 years, though again AP got close enough it's like splitting hairs to me.

For me I am conceding that Henry is in fact an outlier when I predict him in the range of 255 for around 1,200. I'm basically predicting the second best rushing season for the last 15 years for a RB his age AND I'm still under consensus opinion on him a little.

When I'm setting my expectations/rankings I just feel a lot more comfortable playing the odds instead of trying to forecast something that has technically not happened in 15 years and again saying all that I'm predicting him to have what I think would amount to the second best rushing season of a RB in the last 15 years. That's as high as I'm willing to go and I'll feel good playing the odds.

 

[travdogg]

I don’t think Keaton’s play last year was fluky and I do believe he’ll be heavily involved in the offense by mid-season.

Double digit tds I see as obtainable for The King, but I’d have a tough time putting him much north of 1200 rushing yards.

Even if his play wasn't fluky (and the sample size was SO small) he's not likely playing at all until mid-season (if at all) and its no guarantee he hasn't lost some explosiveness. I found Mitchell's play impressive, but just like with Jordan Mason, its hard to know just how much is "small sample size theater" and how much is "this guy is really good."

They can wish/desire to pass all they want but they went out and signed one of the greatest RBs in the NFL over the last 6 years
When Henry was running for over 5 yds a carry, he had a tremendous OL and he now arrives at one fo the current best according to PFF

Gimme some box scores you predict when we open the papers on Monday Morning with our pencils and scratch pads


This isn't quite like CMC joining the Niners but it's an incredible landing spot for a guy that runs like Henry runs.
He's going to have some massive open holes to run through and if the Ravens ever figure out the passing game, all bets are off
What would that do if teams actually put 6-7 in the box vs Henry and the Ravens OL.
Maybe Henry can't quite book it 50-60 yds untouched but I'm sure he can chunk it for 20-25 yds a couple times a game when the opp is there.
Henry is a weapon not an albatross for the Ravens

It is a little interesting to me, that people can be down on Henry, but high on Barkley or Jacobs, when Henry is a better runner than those guys, and Henry went to the best situation of those guys, and I say that being happy to draft any of those 3.

 

[menobrown]

nd he now arrives at one fo the current best according to PFF

The revamped OL is actually one of my concerns and PFF actually ranks them 26th for the upcoming season.

 

[Scoresman]

I don’t think Keaton’s play last year was fluky and I do believe he’ll be heavily involved in the offense by mid-season.

Double digit tds I see as obtainable for The King, but I’d have a tough time putting him much north of 1200 rushing yards.

Even if his play wasn't fluky (and the sample size was SO small) he's not likely playing at all until mid-season (if at all) and its no guarantee he hasn't lost some explosiveness. I found Mitchell's play impressive, but just like with Jordan Mason, its hard to know just how much is "small sample size theater" and how much is "this guy is really good."

They can wish/desire to pass all they want but they went out and signed one of the greatest RBs in the NFL over the last 6 years
When Henry was running for over 5 yds a carry, he had a tremendous OL and he now arrives at one fo the current best according to PFF

Gimme some box scores you predict when we open the papers on Monday Morning with our pencils and scratch pads


This isn't quite like CMC joining the Niners but it's an incredible landing spot for a guy that runs like Henry runs.
He's going to have some massive open holes to run through and if the Ravens ever figure out the passing game, all bets are off
What would that do if teams actually put 6-7 in the box vs Henry and the Ravens OL.
Maybe Henry can't quite book it 50-60 yds untouched but I'm sure he can chunk it for 20-25 yds a couple times a game when the opp is there.
Henry is a weapon not an albatross for the Ravens

It is a little interesting to me, that people can be down on Henry, but high on Barkley or Jacobs, when Henry is a better runner than those guys, and Henry went to the best situation of those guys, and I say that being happy to draft any of those 3.

I’m not down on Henry. I like Henry more than Jacobs and Barkley.

Doesn’t mean he’ll have 300+ carries and 1500 yards rushing.

 

[Ray_T]

Curtis Martin had like 1600 rushing yards at 31 years old … Henry is gonna be battery ram mode …Tennessee is meh to the last few years

If you notice the only RB of this age who had a season like that in that in about the last 15 years was Peterson's age 30 season. I don't think anyone else has hit 1,200 that was over 30 since then, for sure no one over 31 other then AP's big year since 2009.

But it was much more common in the era you referenced with Curtis. Tiki threw down a monster 1,800 yard season at Henry's age and then over 1,600 at age 31. Thomas Jones in the same era came in at over 1,400 yards at age 31.

But like I said since then it's incredibly rare with zero seasons of 1,500 for 30+ year old RB's though we do have an extra game and AP was close but that was one season really unlike any other RB of a similar age for pure rushing production.

I've been contending for years around here that RB's and WR's are aging worse then they used to though I can't exactly quantify why.

Is Henry an outlier? He seems to be in many ways so I'd say yes, but people need to understand when you are predicting 1,500 plus you are predicting something that has not been done by a RB his age in 15 years, though again AP got close enough it's like splitting hairs to me.

For me I am conceding that Henry is in fact an outlier when I predict him in the range of 255 for around 1,200. I'm basically predicting the second best rushing season for the last 15 years for a RB his age AND I'm still under consensus opinion on him a little.

When I'm setting my expectations/rankings I just feel a lot more comfortable playing the odds instead of trying to forecast something that has technically not happened in 15 years and again saying all that I'm predicting him to have what I think would amount to the second best rushing season of a RB in the last 15 years. That's as high as I'm willing to go and I'll feel good playing the odds.

some valid points.

I wasnt one of the guys out there predicting that, but a 1000 yard rushing season with a large # of TD isnt out of the question. and for his ADP that might be good enough.

 

[travdogg]

I’m not down on Henry. I like Henry more than Jacobs and Barkley.

Doesn’t mean he’ll have 300+ carries and 1500 yards rushing.

I wasn't calling you out, you were just in the reply chain. I've just seen a lot of that around the internet, perhaps because Henry got the smallest contract, or due to age reasons, but its stuck out to me.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Derrick Henry Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Derrick Henry. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

Just so we all know what we are discussing, I know Scores is up on these stats but some might not have looked at the entire body of work.
He wasn't abused a lot when he first started, Rookie season and Year 2 wasn't overly used

378-349-303 in 3 of the last 5 seasons, 1 was cut down short because he went on the Madden cover

How many of those 3 seasons did he have a QB take 140-150 carries?

Good question and I would counter that with this...
So Henry is going to see a steep reduction in his number of carries changing teams but Lamar Jackson will not budge an inch from his usual number of carries?
Perhaps the Ravens would like to lighten the load for LJ so he can focus more on his passing game. (I have no proof of this - I'm not invited to the coaches meetings)

But it's a good question. I don't think they have had anyone quite like Henry since Jackson was drafted.
Ravens are likely to win 11-12 games this year, would you not agree? They likely will be nursing leads in the 2nd Half, not saying that's where they want to run henry into the ground but even in tight football games with 3-7 pt leads entering the 4th Q, you want to run the football and milk that clock down, Henry IMHO is one of the best you could have taking hand offs there.

And when the passing game is not clicking which is often in Baltimore despite their desire to throw the ball down field consistently, but when it fails, far too easy to turn around and hand off with that OL blocking in front of him. We are talking about John Harbaugh here, IMHO a very conservative "grounded" steady minded Head Coach that's been in this league a long time

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Curtis Martin had like 1600 rushing yards at 31 years old … Henry is gonna be battery ram mode …Tennessee is meh to the last few years

If you notice the only RB of this age who had a season like that in that in about the last 15 years was Peterson's age 30 season. I don't think anyone else has hit 1,200 that was over 30 since then, for sure no one over 31 other then AP's big year since 2009.

But it was much more common in the era you referenced with Curtis. Tiki threw down a monster 1,800 yard season at Henry's age and then over 1,600 at age 31. Thomas Jones in the same era came in at over 1,400 yards at age 31.

But like I said since then it's incredibly rare with zero seasons of 1,500 for 30+ year old RB's though we do have an extra game and AP was close but that was one season really unlike any other RB of a similar age for pure rushing production.

I've been contending for years around here that RB's and WR's are aging worse then they used to though I can't exactly quantify why.

Is Henry an outlier? He seems to be in many ways so I'd say yes, but people need to understand when you are predicting 1,500 plus you are predicting something that has not been done by a RB his age in 15 years, though again AP got close enough it's like splitting hairs to me.

For me I am conceding that Henry is in fact an outlier when I predict him in the range of 255 for around 1,200. I'm basically predicting the second best rushing season for the last 15 years for a RB his age AND I'm still under consensus opinion on him a little.

When I'm setting my expectations/rankings I just feel a lot more comfortable playing the odds instead of trying to forecast something that has technically not happened in 15 years and again saying all that I'm predicting him to have what I think would amount to the second best rushing season of a RB in the last 15 years. That's as high as I'm willing to go and I'll feel good playing the odds.

Is he worth a Mid-Late 2nd in redrafts, yes or no?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

There is a reason the heavyweights are piling in here on the Sat night prior to a lot of camps getting ready to open...why is there so much interest here both ways?
Ask yourself

-Because most think he can still get it done and when you add in great coaching, leadership, front office, those guys know what they're doing.
Baltimore could have signed a half dozen different FA RBs that all seemed to jump teams this past off season, why Henry?
Does he fit like a glove for what they want? Will he help them get over the hump and to the next level?
He played in a AFCC about 3 years ago, got a little taste of it. I'm sure he would like to get back there and be on a team that could be heavily favored partly because of his presence.

30 yrs old, gulp!

 

[Ray_T]

Curtis Martin had like 1600 rushing yards at 31 years old … Henry is gonna be battery ram mode …Tennessee is meh to the last few years

If you notice the only RB of this age who had a season like that in that in about the last 15 years was Peterson's age 30 season. I don't think anyone else has hit 1,200 that was over 30 since then, for sure no one over 31 other then AP's big year since 2009.

But it was much more common in the era you referenced with Curtis. Tiki threw down a monster 1,800 yard season at Henry's age and then over 1,600 at age 31. Thomas Jones in the same era came in at over 1,400 yards at age 31.

But like I said since then it's incredibly rare with zero seasons of 1,500 for 30+ year old RB's though we do have an extra game and AP was close but that was one season really unlike any other RB of a similar age for pure rushing production.

I've been contending for years around here that RB's and WR's are aging worse then they used to though I can't exactly quantify why.

Is Henry an outlier? He seems to be in many ways so I'd say yes, but people need to understand when you are predicting 1,500 plus you are predicting something that has not been done by a RB his age in 15 years, though again AP got close enough it's like splitting hairs to me.

For me I am conceding that Henry is in fact an outlier when I predict him in the range of 255 for around 1,200. I'm basically predicting the second best rushing season for the last 15 years for a RB his age AND I'm still under consensus opinion on him a little.

When I'm setting my expectations/rankings I just feel a lot more comfortable playing the odds instead of trying to forecast something that has technically not happened in 15 years and again saying all that I'm predicting him to have what I think would amount to the second best rushing season of a RB in the last 15 years. That's as high as I'm willing to go and I'll feel good playing the odds.

Is he worth a Mid-Late 2nd in redrafts, yes or no?

I think yes.

mostly because he will get all the goal line touches Gus Edwards had and maybe one or two that Lamar took himself in the past.

if he gets the 13 TD gus Got he only needs to get close to 1000 yards to be worth the pick. I think he can do that behind this line. Line he had last year was not anywhere close to the line he will be running behind this year, so even if he slows down a half step, I think the Line will make up for that.

 

[Ray Barboni]

There is a reason the heavyweights are piling in here on the Sat night prior to a lot of camps getting ready to open...why is there so much interest here both ways?
Ask yourself

-Because most think he can still get it done and when you add in great coaching, leadership, front office, those guys know what they're doing.
Baltimore could have signed a half dozen different FA RBs that all seemed to jump teams this past off season, why Henry?
Does he fit like a glove for what they want? Will he help them get over the hump and to the next level?
He played in a AFCC about 3 years ago, got a little taste of it. I'm sure he would like to get back there and be on a team that could be heavily favored partly because of his presence.

30 yrs old, gulp!

If there’s anyone that can put together a top 8-10 RB season at age 30, King Henry has to be on that list.

Hard to predict anything after this season for him, but I’m very. Bullish on him first year in Baltimore.

Edit to add “at age 30”

 

[Scoresman]

Derrick Henry Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Derrick Henry. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

Just so we all know what we are discussing, I know Scores is up on these stats but some might not have looked at the entire body of work.
He wasn't abused a lot when he first started, Rookie season and Year 2 wasn't overly used

378-349-303 in 3 of the last 5 seasons, 1 was cut down short because he went on the Madden cover

How many of those 3 seasons did he have a QB take 140-150 carries?

Good question and I would counter that with this...
So Henry is going to see a steep reduction in his number of carries changing teams but Lamar Jackson will not budge an inch from his usual number of carries?
Perhaps the Ravens would like to lighten the load for LJ so he can focus more on his passing game. (I have no proof of this - I'm not invited to the coaches meetings)

But it's a good question. I don't think they have had anyone quite like Henry since Jackson was drafted.
Ravens are likely to win 11-12 games this year, would you not agree? They likely will be nursing leads in the 2nd Half, not saying that's where they want to run henry into the ground but even in tight football games with 3-7 pt leads entering the 4th Q, you want to run the football and milk that clock down, Henry IMHO is one of the best you could have taking hand offs there.

And when the passing game is not clicking which is often in Baltimore despite their desire to throw the ball down field consistently, but when it fails, far too easy to turn around and hand off with that OL blocking in front of him. We are talking about John Harbaugh here, IMHO a very conservative "grounded" steady minded Head Coach that's been in this league a long time

Lamar would have to budge a lot to give Henry the number of carries needed to hit the lofty projections some are claiming here.

For the record, I do have Lamar getting fewer carries. It makes sense. But not to the point where I can say 1500+ yards is a reasonable outcome for Henry.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Curtis Martin had like 1600 rushing yards at 31 years old … Henry is gonna be battery ram mode …Tennessee is meh to the last few years

If you notice the only RB of this age who had a season like that in that in about the last 15 years was Peterson's age 30 season. I don't think anyone else has hit 1,200 that was over 30 since then, for sure no one over 31 other then AP's big year since 2009.

But it was much more common in the era you referenced with Curtis. Tiki threw down a monster 1,800 yard season at Henry's age and then over 1,600 at age 31. Thomas Jones in the same era came in at over 1,400 yards at age 31.

But like I said since then it's incredibly rare with zero seasons of 1,500 for 30+ year old RB's though we do have an extra game and AP was close but that was one season really unlike any other RB of a similar age for pure rushing production.

I've been contending for years around here that RB's and WR's are aging worse then they used to though I can't exactly quantify why.

Is Henry an outlier? He seems to be in many ways so I'd say yes, but people need to understand when you are predicting 1,500 plus you are predicting something that has not been done by a RB his age in 15 years, though again AP got close enough it's like splitting hairs to me.

For me I am conceding that Henry is in fact an outlier when I predict him in the range of 255 for around 1,200. I'm basically predicting the second best rushing season for the last 15 years for a RB his age AND I'm still under consensus opinion on him a little.

When I'm setting my expectations/rankings I just feel a lot more comfortable playing the odds instead of trying to forecast something that has technically not happened in 15 years and again saying all that I'm predicting him to have what I think would amount to the second best rushing season of a RB in the last 15 years. That's as high as I'm willing to go and I'll feel good playing the odds.

Is he worth a Mid-Late 2nd in redrafts, yes or no?

I think yes.

mostly because he will get all the goal line touches Gus Edwards had and maybe one or two that Lamar took himself in the past.

if he gets the 13 TD gus Got he only needs to get close to 1000 yards to be worth the pick. I think he can do that behind this line. Line he had last year was not anywhere close to the line he will be running behind this year, so even if he slows down a half step, I think the Line will make up for that.

I could never compare Henry to Gus Edwards
I think some of you might want to take a step back
You are way over selling last year's stats and the offense vs what it looks like now with Derrick Henry back there
And I'm not making fun of anyone, but it's difficult to debate when folks have pigeon holed themselves with last year's stats

It's a common problem in Redraft, just load the stats from last year and assume they all hit about the same
I think everyone should take a fresh look at the layout here.

And I could say the SAME for a half dozen RBs that all changed teams

I like ALL of THEM!!! Almost all of them - Jacobs, Pollard, Barkley, gimme some more gimme some more more more!!!

 

[Ray_T]

Curtis Martin had like 1600 rushing yards at 31 years old … Henry is gonna be battery ram mode …Tennessee is meh to the last few years

If you notice the only RB of this age who had a season like that in that in about the last 15 years was Peterson's age 30 season. I don't think anyone else has hit 1,200 that was over 30 since then, for sure no one over 31 other then AP's big year since 2009.

But it was much more common in the era you referenced with Curtis. Tiki threw down a monster 1,800 yard season at Henry's age and then over 1,600 at age 31. Thomas Jones in the same era came in at over 1,400 yards at age 31.

But like I said since then it's incredibly rare with zero seasons of 1,500 for 30+ year old RB's though we do have an extra game and AP was close but that was one season really unlike any other RB of a similar age for pure rushing production.

I've been contending for years around here that RB's and WR's are aging worse then they used to though I can't exactly quantify why.

Is Henry an outlier? He seems to be in many ways so I'd say yes, but people need to understand when you are predicting 1,500 plus you are predicting something that has not been done by a RB his age in 15 years, though again AP got close enough it's like splitting hairs to me.

For me I am conceding that Henry is in fact an outlier when I predict him in the range of 255 for around 1,200. I'm basically predicting the second best rushing season for the last 15 years for a RB his age AND I'm still under consensus opinion on him a little.

When I'm setting my expectations/rankings I just feel a lot more comfortable playing the odds instead of trying to forecast something that has technically not happened in 15 years and again saying all that I'm predicting him to have what I think would amount to the second best rushing season of a RB in the last 15 years. That's as high as I'm willing to go and I'll feel good playing the odds.

Is he worth a Mid-Late 2nd in redrafts, yes or no?

I think yes.

mostly because he will get all the goal line touches Gus Edwards had and maybe one or two that Lamar took himself in the past.

if he gets the 13 TD gus Got he only needs to get close to 1000 yards to be worth the pick. I think he can do that behind this line. Line he had last year was not anywhere close to the line he will be running behind this year, so even if he slows down a half step, I think the Line will make up for that.

I could never compare Henry to Gus Edwards
I think some of you might want to take a step back
You are way over selling last year's stats and the offense vs what it looks like now with Derrick Henry back there
And I'm not making fun of anyone, but it's difficult to debate when folks have pigeon holed themselves with last year's stats

It's a common problem in Redraft, just load the stats from last year and assume they all hit about the same
I think everyone should take a fresh look at the layout here.

And I could say the SAME for a half dozen RBs that all changed teams

I like ALL of THEM!!! Almost all of them - Jacobs, Pollard, Barkley, gimme some more gimme some more more more!!!

are you suggesting Edwards is better than Henry? just asking.

my logic is surrounding the quality of the line Henry had in Tennessee. PFF ranks their line at #30 out of 32 teams currently. I dont see how this situation is worse for Henry. and he was able to run for 1100 yards last year.

I do think he can score all the TD's gus got. I dont expect the yardage to improve and might slip a bit. but I do think the TD will be there. And thats why I like Henry at a 2nd round ADP.

while there is the chance his yardage improves, Im not betting on that. but if it does, I would consider that a nice bonus.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Curtis Martin had like 1600 rushing yards at 31 years old … Henry is gonna be battery ram mode …Tennessee is meh to the last few years

If you notice the only RB of this age who had a season like that in that in about the last 15 years was Peterson's age 30 season. I don't think anyone else has hit 1,200 that was over 30 since then, for sure no one over 31 other then AP's big year since 2009.

But it was much more common in the era you referenced with Curtis. Tiki threw down a monster 1,800 yard season at Henry's age and then over 1,600 at age 31. Thomas Jones in the same era came in at over 1,400 yards at age 31.

But like I said since then it's incredibly rare with zero seasons of 1,500 for 30+ year old RB's though we do have an extra game and AP was close but that was one season really unlike any other RB of a similar age for pure rushing production.

I've been contending for years around here that RB's and WR's are aging worse then they used to though I can't exactly quantify why.

Is Henry an outlier? He seems to be in many ways so I'd say yes, but people need to understand when you are predicting 1,500 plus you are predicting something that has not been done by a RB his age in 15 years, though again AP got close enough it's like splitting hairs to me.

For me I am conceding that Henry is in fact an outlier when I predict him in the range of 255 for around 1,200. I'm basically predicting the second best rushing season for the last 15 years for a RB his age AND I'm still under consensus opinion on him a little.

When I'm setting my expectations/rankings I just feel a lot more comfortable playing the odds instead of trying to forecast something that has technically not happened in 15 years and again saying all that I'm predicting him to have what I think would amount to the second best rushing season of a RB in the last 15 years. That's as high as I'm willing to go and I'll feel good playing the odds.

Is he worth a Mid-Late 2nd in redrafts, yes or no?

I think yes.

mostly because he will get all the goal line touches Gus Edwards had and maybe one or two that Lamar took himself in the past.

if he gets the 13 TD gus Got he only needs to get close to 1000 yards to be worth the pick. I think he can do that behind this line. Line he had last year was not anywhere close to the line he will be running behind this year, so even if he slows down a half step, I think the Line will make up for that.

I could never compare Henry to Gus Edwards
I think some of you might want to take a step back
You are way over selling last year's stats and the offense vs what it looks like now with Derrick Henry back there
And I'm not making fun of anyone, but it's difficult to debate when folks have pigeon holed themselves with last year's stats

It's a common problem in Redraft, just load the stats from last year and assume they all hit about the same
I think everyone should take a fresh look at the layout here.

And I could say the SAME for a half dozen RBs that all changed teams

I like ALL of THEM!!! Almost all of them - Jacobs, Pollard, Barkley, gimme some more gimme some more more more!!!

are you suggesting Edwards is better than Henry? just asking.

my logic is surrounding the quality of the line Henry had in Tennessee. PFF ranks their line at #30 out of 32 teams currently. I dont see how this situation is worse for Henry. and he was able to run for 1100 yards last year.

I do think he can score all the TD's gus got. I dont expect the yardage to improve and might slip a bit. but I do think the TD will be there. And thats why I like Henry at a 2nd round ADP.

while there is the chance his yardage improves, Im not betting on that. but if it does, I would consider that a nice bonus.

Maybe I misread, I am firmly supporting Henry this season and think he is more than just an upgrade over what the Ravens had previously that ended up on the Chargers

 

[FarFromHome]

I love Henry. I also think he is gonna have one more big rb1 year. I will say that when the rb cliff comes it crashes fast and hard. Hopefully it's not for a few years

 

[Ray_T]

Curtis Martin had like 1600 rushing yards at 31 years old … Henry is gonna be battery ram mode …Tennessee is meh to the last few years

If you notice the only RB of this age who had a season like that in that in about the last 15 years was Peterson's age 30 season. I don't think anyone else has hit 1,200 that was over 30 since then, for sure no one over 31 other then AP's big year since 2009.

But it was much more common in the era you referenced with Curtis. Tiki threw down a monster 1,800 yard season at Henry's age and then over 1,600 at age 31. Thomas Jones in the same era came in at over 1,400 yards at age 31.

But like I said since then it's incredibly rare with zero seasons of 1,500 for 30+ year old RB's though we do have an extra game and AP was close but that was one season really unlike any other RB of a similar age for pure rushing production.

I've been contending for years around here that RB's and WR's are aging worse then they used to though I can't exactly quantify why.

Is Henry an outlier? He seems to be in many ways so I'd say yes, but people need to understand when you are predicting 1,500 plus you are predicting something that has not been done by a RB his age in 15 years, though again AP got close enough it's like splitting hairs to me.

For me I am conceding that Henry is in fact an outlier when I predict him in the range of 255 for around 1,200. I'm basically predicting the second best rushing season for the last 15 years for a RB his age AND I'm still under consensus opinion on him a little.

When I'm setting my expectations/rankings I just feel a lot more comfortable playing the odds instead of trying to forecast something that has technically not happened in 15 years and again saying all that I'm predicting him to have what I think would amount to the second best rushing season of a RB in the last 15 years. That's as high as I'm willing to go and I'll feel good playing the odds.

Is he worth a Mid-Late 2nd in redrafts, yes or no?

I think yes.

mostly because he will get all the goal line touches Gus Edwards had and maybe one or two that Lamar took himself in the past.

if he gets the 13 TD gus Got he only needs to get close to 1000 yards to be worth the pick. I think he can do that behind this line. Line he had last year was not anywhere close to the line he will be running behind this year, so even if he slows down a half step, I think the Line will make up for that.

I could never compare Henry to Gus Edwards
I think some of you might want to take a step back
You are way over selling last year's stats and the offense vs what it looks like now with Derrick Henry back there
And I'm not making fun of anyone, but it's difficult to debate when folks have pigeon holed themselves with last year's stats

It's a common problem in Redraft, just load the stats from last year and assume they all hit about the same
I think everyone should take a fresh look at the layout here.

And I could say the SAME for a half dozen RBs that all changed teams

I like ALL of THEM!!! Almost all of them - Jacobs, Pollard, Barkley, gimme some more gimme some more more more!!!

are you suggesting Edwards is better than Henry? just asking.

my logic is surrounding the quality of the line Henry had in Tennessee. PFF ranks their line at #30 out of 32 teams currently. I dont see how this situation is worse for Henry. and he was able to run for 1100 yards last year.

I do think he can score all the TD's gus got. I dont expect the yardage to improve and might slip a bit. but I do think the TD will be there. And thats why I like Henry at a 2nd round ADP.

while there is the chance his yardage improves, Im not betting on that. but if it does, I would consider that a nice bonus.

Maybe I misread, I am firmly supporting Henry this season and think he is more than just an upgrade over what the Ravens had previously that ended up on the Chargers

no I was also suggesting Henry > gus the bus. but Gus got (I think) 13 TD last year.... (might have been 12, but dont shoot the messenger if I'm too lazy to look it up) and I'm suggesting if Henry Matches that (and he should) then he only needs to get 1000 yards to be worth the pick at his ADP. (due to the large # of TD) So even if he only gets 1000 yards (a negative 10% regression), hes actually not a terrible choice at his ADP. obviously you hope he does better but I think the projection I saw predicted 1100 yards rushing and around 12 TD and that placed him around #5 in their PPR rankings. I dont remember what the prediction was on his receiving but the last couple years hes gotten around 30 catches so hes not actually terrible that way. He's just not a stud in the pass game.

 

[Ilov80s]

I love Henry. I also think he is gonna have one more big rb1 year. I will say that when the rb cliff comes it crashes fast and hard. Hopefully it's not for a few years

I agree. My guess is this year he's not quite the super explosive player we've seen in the past but the Ravens offense creates big holes and lots of scoring chances. 1500 yards rushing and 15-20 TDs is where I see him ending up.

 

[ICON211]

Watching Henry over the years it seems to me that he is better when running with the QB under center and gets the ball when he is already moving toward the line of scrimmage. Handing him the ball while standing still next to the QB in shotgun went poorly a lot more often. The Ravens use a lot of shotgun. That's my only fear for him this year.

 

[RC94]

He's going to have 273 carries for 1217 yards and 11 TDs

 

[Alex P Keaton]

He's going to have 273 carries for 1217 yards and 11 TDs

No, he’s going to have 1219 yards

 

[Ilov80s]

Watching Henry over the years it seems to me that he is better when running with the QB under center and gets the ball when he is already moving toward the line of scrimmage. Handing him the ball while standing still next to the QB in shotgun went poorly a lot more often. The Ravens use a lot of shotgun. That's my only fear for him this year.

Good point though I think having a QB who actually will threaten teams with the run could alleviate some of those issues.

 

[Ilov80s]

He's going to have 273 carries for 1217 yards and 11 TDs

No, he’s going to have 1219 yards

Ravens scored 26 rushing TDs last year. Lamar will get 4-8. I look at the RBs behind Henry and I don’t expect those guys to be stealing many TDs.

 

[-OZ-]

s as

Watching Henry over the years it seems to me that he is better when running with the QB under center and gets the ball when he is already moving toward the line of scrimmage. Handing him the ball while standing still next to the QB in shotgun went poorly a lot more often. The Ravens use a lot of shotgun. That's my only fear for him this year.

i assume monken is able to assess the strengths of his new star. Ok, second star.

 

[Tau837]

Watching Henry over the years it seems to me that he is better when running with the QB under center and gets the ball when he is already moving toward the line of scrimmage. Handing him the ball while standing still next to the QB in shotgun went poorly a lot more often. The Ravens use a lot of shotgun. That's my only fear for him this year.

Career splits:

• Snap type:
  • Shotgun: 376/1667/19 (4.4 ypc)
  • Under center: 1460/6948/62 (4.8 ypc)
• Run/pass option:
  • RPO: 41/185/3 (4.5 ypc)
  • Non-RPO: 1989/9317/87 (4.7 ypc)

You are correct about shotgun vs. under center, but these numbers make it seem that he was still good in shotgun. As has been pointed out, the rest of the offense (QB, targets, OL, scheme) also matters. It could be that running out of shotgun with Jackson is different than running out of shotgun with Tannehill.

 

[Scoresman]

He's going to have 273 carries for 1217 yards and 11 TDs

No, he’s going to have 1219 yards

Ravens scored 26 rushing TDs last year. Lamar will get 4-8. I look at the RBs behind Henry and I don’t expect those guys to be stealing many TDs.

I’d be careful using 26 as a baseline. It’s an obvious outlier when looking at earlier seasons. That said, double digit TDs do seem like a lock.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

He's going to have 273 carries for 1217 yards and 11 TDs

No, he’s going to have 1219 yards

I hope they borrow that passing play from Tennessee where he starts to run and then throws for 2 or a TD.

 

[Ray_T]

Watching Henry over the years it seems to me that he is better when running with the QB under center and gets the ball when he is already moving toward the line of scrimmage. Handing him the ball while standing still next to the QB in shotgun went poorly a lot more often. The Ravens use a lot of shotgun. That's my only fear for him this year.

its a different dynamic and the defense gets a step before the RB gets to take one. when the line is good, that isnt a problem, but when the line is bad, that kind of play can be.

and he ran behind a bad line last year.

while this line isnt a top 5 line, its better than what Henry had to work with last season and that's the important thing.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

He's going to have 273 carries for 1217 yards and 11 TDs

No, he’s going to have 1219 yards

Ravens scored 26 rushing TDs last year. Lamar will get 4-8. I look at the RBs behind Henry and I don’t expect those guys to be stealing many TDs.

BOOM!!!

 

[Cobbler1]

This thread has been a great read. I’ll add that the 4.1 YPC by Gus is a bit of an outlier in the Lamar era. Gus was over 5 YPC 4 straight years prior, JK Dobbins averaged 5.7 YPC for his career in Baltimore, even late career Mark Ingram averaged 5 YPC during his full season with Lamar. I’d be pretty surprised if Henry isn’t at or above 5 YPC.

Another variable though is how much you weigh the change from Greg Roman to Monken and its impact on the run game last year. Roman had many many flaws but he was a great run game coordinator and the rushing efficiency did seem to take a hit with him out even as the overall offense was much better. I think Henry is a perfect fit smashing up the middle with his power as Lamar threatens the defense on the edges so I have that winning out and Henry being a very efficient runner.

 

[Ray_T]

This thread has been a great read. I’ll add that the 4.1 YPC by Gus is a bit of an outlier in the Lamar era. Gus was over 5 YPC 4 straight years prior, JK Dobbins averaged 5.7 YPC for his career in Baltimore, even late career Mark Ingram averaged 5 YPC during his full season with Lamar. I’d be pretty surprised if Henry isn’t at or above 5 YPC.

Another variable though is how much you weigh the change from Greg Roman to Monken and its impact on the run game last year. Roman had many many flaws but he was a great run game coordinator and the rushing efficiency did seem to take a hit with him out even as the overall offense was much better. I think Henry is a perfect fit smashing up the middle with his power as Lamar threatens the defense on the edges so I have that winning out and Henry being a very efficient runner.

it helps when you have a QB that can run like Jackson can.

if he hands the ball off and runs to the right, someone needs to take that threat seriously or the defense gives up yards. that makes the RB's perform better than they should in this offense. while the line is better than it was in Tennessee its not by any means an all star line, yet the runners are getting YPC that is in line with that. Lamar is the only realistic explanation here unless you think all those RB's were all stars (Im pretty sure they were not)

 

[Da Franchise]

Curtis Martin had like 1600 rushing yards at 31 years old … Henry is gonna be battery ram mode …Tennessee is meh to the last few years

If you notice the only RB of this age who had a season like that in that in about the last 15 years was Peterson's age 30 season. I don't think anyone else has hit 1,200 that was over 30 since then, for sure no one over 31 other then AP's big year since 2009.

But it was much more common in the era you referenced with Curtis. Tiki threw down a monster 1,800 yard season at Henry's age and then over 1,600 at age 31. Thomas Jones in the same era came in at over 1,400 yards at age 31.

But like I said since then it's incredibly rare with zero seasons of 1,500 for 30+ year old RB's though we do have an extra game and AP was close but that was one season really unlike any other RB of a similar age for pure rushing production.

I've been contending for years around here that RB's and WR's are aging worse then they used to though I can't exactly quantify why.

I agree with your last thought there and my theory goes like this. The quality of athlete has been raised so much, both floor and ceiling, that when age catches up the impact is exacerbated. Between improvements in training, diet, and exercise, the table stakes athleticism is higher and the aging process therefore more noticeable and impactful.

A guy like Tyreek might actually defy this notion though. He’s so far up the scale that he can afford to lose a little and still be near the top. He’s in the 99th percentile though. Henry is a freak of nature obviously but I wouldn’t say his athleticism is that high. It was more like 89th percentile IMO but his frame and power was a force multiplier. If the athleticism slips to say low 80s, he’s still an effective runner because of other attributes, but he’s no longer able to do Superman type things.

Thats been my view on it for awhile now anyway.

 

[ghostguy123]

If people EXPECT 1500 yards and 10-12 TDs.............I'll be happy to trade him to that owner.
I mean sure, he might, but I personally do not see Henry all of a suddenly being MORE productive than he has been. lately.

 

[Scoresman]

If people EXPECT 1500 yards and 10-12 TDs.............I'll be happy to trade him to that owner.
I mean sure, he might, but I personally do not see Henry all of a suddenly being MORE productive than he has been. lately.

He should net out to being more productive and more efficient. 10-12 TDs are easily in range. But once people go up to 1500 rushing yards, I start to wonder where all the extra carries to make this happen are going to come from.

I have Henry at 275/1,265/12. I feel like that's close to ceiling yardage, but he could easily get more TDs than that. This projection makes him my RB4.

This puts Baltimore at a team YPC of 4.9, matching last year. Pretty generous considering a potentially worse offensive line.

 

[kutta]

If people EXPECT 1500 yards and 10-12 TDs.............I'll be happy to trade him to that owner.
I mean sure, he might, but I personally do not see Henry all of a suddenly being MORE productive than he has been. lately.

He should net out to being more productive and more efficient. 10-12 TDs are easily in range. But once people go up to 1500 rushing yards, I start to wonder where all the extra carries to make this happen are going to come from.

I have Henry at 275/1,265/12. I feel like that's close to ceiling yardage, but he could easily get more TDs than that. This projection makes him my RB4.

This puts Baltimore at a team YPC of 4.9, matching last year. Pretty generous considering a potentially worse offensive line.

You keep harping on more carries but won’t entertain the possibility that maybe Henry is MUCH better than previous RBs this team has had and ends up with a much higher YPC.

I’ll agree with you that 1500 rushing yards is at the very high end, but the only path there isn’t more carries.

 

[Scoresman]

If people EXPECT 1500 yards and 10-12 TDs.............I'll be happy to trade him to that owner.
I mean sure, he might, but I personally do not see Henry all of a suddenly being MORE productive than he has been. lately.

He should net out to being more productive and more efficient. 10-12 TDs are easily in range. But once people go up to 1500 rushing yards, I start to wonder where all the extra carries to make this happen are going to come from.

I have Henry at 275/1,265/12. I feel like that's close to ceiling yardage, but he could easily get more TDs than that. This projection makes him my RB4.

This puts Baltimore at a team YPC of 4.9, matching last year. Pretty generous considering a potentially worse offensive line.

You keep harping on more carries but won’t entertain the possibility that maybe Henry is MUCH better than previous RBs this team has had and ends up with a much higher YPC.

I’ll agree with you that 1500 rushing yards is at the very high end, but the only path there isn’t more carries.

So at 275 carries, that's 5.5 YPC. That's an enormous jump from recent history and would be his career best.

Considering he's 30 and we don't even know how much worse Baltimore's O line will be this year, I'm not banking on that much of an efficiency jump. Is there a small outside chance it could happen, sure. But it doesn't seem reasonable to project that.

You could combine the two and go 300 carries at 5 YPC, but that many carries starts to become unlikely with Lamar there. Even without Henry, the amount of run plays they ran was so far and above the league average.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

1800 yds and 15+ TDs
5+ yds a clip, he will run over people after he discovers new wide open holes with an improved OL, this man is a borderline HoF RB right now
I think he knows what to do when they hand him the ball

New day in Baltimore with Henry running the football
They finally unseat the Chiefs on their way to a Super Bowl appearance in 2024

Henry was not signed or brought in to just fill in for Gus Edwards.
He is a perfect 2nd Round RB, there are others I like in the 2nd. but he's
There's a forecast for you

Boom! Boom! Boom!

 

[greenmountaingoat]

He's one of the reasons why drafting at the 1/2 turn seems like a disadvantage. Somebody's going to end up with ARSB and the king and good luck to the rest of the league.

 

[kutta]

If people EXPECT 1500 yards and 10-12 TDs.............I'll be happy to trade him to that owner.
I mean sure, he might, but I personally do not see Henry all of a suddenly being MORE productive than he has been. lately.

He should net out to being more productive and more efficient. 10-12 TDs are easily in range. But once people go up to 1500 rushing yards, I start to wonder where all the extra carries to make this happen are going to come from.

I have Henry at 275/1,265/12. I feel like that's close to ceiling yardage, but he could easily get more TDs than that. This projection makes him my RB4.

This puts Baltimore at a team YPC of 4.9, matching last year. Pretty generous considering a potentially worse offensive line.

You keep harping on more carries but won’t entertain the possibility that maybe Henry is MUCH better than previous RBs this team has had and ends up with a much higher YPC.

I’ll agree with you that 1500 rushing yards is at the very high end, but the only path there isn’t more carries.

So at 275 carries, that's 5.5 YPC. That's an enormous jump from recent history and would be his career best.

Considering he's 30 and we don't even know how much worse Baltimore's O line will be this year, I'm not banking on that much of an efficiency jump. Is there a small outside chance it could happen, sure. But it doesn't seem reasonable to project that.

You could combine the two and go 300 carries at 5 YPC, but that many carries starts to become unlikely with Lamar there. Even without Henry, the amount of run plays they ran was so far and above the league average.

They averaged 5.2 YPC as a team in 2022. And the RB’s they’ve had haven’t exactly been superstars. There’s a real possibility that Henry blows the 4.9 YPC out of the water.
It’s hard to use his “career best” as a barometer. The Ravens and Titans have been in different universes offensively the past few years.

 

[Scoresman]

Ok, now we're up to 1,800 yards. Here's my rushing projection for the entire Baltimore team. Tell me where there is wiggle room to give Derrick a bigger slice of the pie.

Lamar 130/715/5 - This is a 12% reduction in carries due to Henry's presence.

Henry 275/1,265/12 - 275 carries is about equal to Edwards AND Hill's carries last year combined.
Hill 60/276/3 - 30% reduction in carries from last year.
Mitchell 50/225/1

Other 30/135/0 - Last year, backs not names Edwards, Hill, or Jackson had 111 carries. I'm projecting this reduces to 80.

Team Total 553/2,672/22 - 553 carries is already tops in the NFL by 35 carries. Hard to project more.

 

[kutta]

He's one of the reasons why drafting at the 1/2 turn seems like a disadvantage. Somebody's going to end up with ARSB and the king and good luck to the rest of the league.

Thats why I like the middle draft slots this year (1.06-1.08). I can take ASRB there and grab Barkley or Henry in the second.

 

[kutta]

Ok, now we're up to 1,800 yards. Here's my rushing projection for the entire Baltimore team. Tell me where there is wiggle room to give Derrick a bigger slice of the pie.

Lamar 130/715/5 - This is a 12% reduction in carries due to Henry's presence.

Henry 275/1,265/12 - 275 carries is about equal to Edwards AND Hill's carries last year combined.
Hill 60/276/3 - 30% reduction in carries from last year.
Mitchell 50/225/1

Other 30/135/0 - Last year, backs not names Edwards, Hill, or Jackson had 111 carries. I'm projecting this reduces to 80.

Team Total 553/2,672/22 - 553 carries is already tops in the NFL by 35 carries. Hard to project more.

Give him 5.5 YPC and there ya go!