A poster said that as it relates to the seriousness of his injury he’d put little stock in the fact that Guice was walking around and laughing. You felt the need to reply to that poster and completely discount his reply, because clearly you knew better and sure seemed as dismissive as you could be. It came across poorly at the time and yes, it was the first thing I thought of when the news about his ACL tear was announced.
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RB Derrius Guice, Free Agent (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Cjw_55106
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Elevencents
Footballguy
100% accuracy with a physical exam? He is either high or way overconfident in his talents as a diagnostician.
No it wasn't. Trent was considered like Barkley and then you fell off a cliff. I recall doing a startup that year and only player taken in first 3 rounds was Trent. If people are introducing QB's as being top 5 in their class it's not a strong draft. Sorry.
I posted this earlier but Dr. Chao was on Sirius today and said he'd heard Redskins were surprised it was an ACL and that surprised him because he said he'd never not detected an ACL injury with an on the field medical exam.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
the best chance to get an accurate test is immediately following. after that chances are hamstrings are tight. sometimes the walk to the sideline is enough to get them right.
My BS meter goes sky high when someone says they've never had a false negative testing an ACL on the sideline.
the moment of injury itself is very minor. I think everyone was surprised
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
mechanism of injury seemed very mild and not indicative of an acl tear. then again. the angle I had in the video I posted didnt show the transverse plane at all, so I was basing my opinion below on 2 dimensions of motion only.
most people walk after an acl tear. in fact many people dont realize they tore it, and many continue to play. some adults don't have them repaired/replaced and function just fine.
at the time my biggest worry was a meniscus tear, mcl sprain, or a bone bruise. the first and 3rd would be more long term and more painful to walk on after. ACL is a shock as the mechanism of injury seemed mild.
think what you want about my credentials. doesn't matter to me in the slightest.
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Agree for RG3, but the hype around Andrew Luck was definitely at Saquon proportions, if not more. He was seen as a can’t-miss, best prospect since Peyton, QB for a decade. Having him as a dynasty top-5 didn’t really reflect low quality of the rest of the class.
If Luck was coming out this year with the same levels of press and anticipation I expect he’d be going in or ahead of the second tier of RBs.
matuski
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
matuski
Footballguy
Buddy/acquaintance of mine.. insists upon calling himself a doctor. I insist upon laughing every time he does.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
call him a chiroquackerBuddy/acquaintance of mine.. insists upon calling himself a doctor. I insist upon laughing every time he does.
he has a doctorate degree, yes, but their practice has zero science behind it. based off the concept of a vertebral subluxation, which doesnt exist
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matuski
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
the great news about Guice is that he will be a year out when he starts the season next year, so he will actually have enough time to properly rehab and let the acl integrate into the bone.
as someone who was actually counting on the 1.1 next year in my two new dynasty teams, I'm not terribly mad about this. disappointed to not see my new toy in action, and at this point dynasty guys still dont know exactly what they have with guice... but he is very young and still a promising career.
if I held 1.2 today (and where I got him at 1.3 in another league) I think I may still take him for long term plans. if I was close to competing then maybe I trade down for kerryon.
as someone who was actually counting on the 1.1 next year in my two new dynasty teams, I'm not terribly mad about this. disappointed to not see my new toy in action, and at this point dynasty guys still dont know exactly what they have with guice... but he is very young and still a promising career.
if I held 1.2 today (and where I got him at 1.3 in another league) I think I may still take him for long term plans. if I was close to competing then maybe I trade down for kerryon.
Casting Couch
Footballguy
A "Doctoral" degree should be earned through years of theory, and practical application.
I'm confident I could become a successful chiropractor in one or two days of tutelage. Tops.
mozzy84
Footballguy
I would think no one is going to take him with the 1.2. I would love it if they did but that’s not going to happen anymore.
Im thinking contending teams with late first round picks will be staring at him.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
All in on this. Interested to see where his dynasty ADP shakes out in the coming days.
This headline sums it up perfectly:
Derrius Guice the Latest Victim of the Preseason (Read: Meaningless) Football Injury
Derrius Guice the Latest Victim of the Preseason (Read: Meaningless) Football Injury
I disagree with this. How are teams supposed to evaluate their players without preseason games?
Steel Curtainrod
Footballguy
I would be all in on buying him if I didn't just take him 1.2 in a rookie draft hours before the game. I won't sell him unless I'm blown away by the offer. Thing that kills me the most is punting the season of evaluating my rb spots, as I'll know as little about him next year as I do today. I've finally accepted the fact that it's just a free additional high first for next season.
Edited to add; please stop drafting in early August. I know it was initially a measure to favor more astute/hard working owners, but the luck factor really mitigates any advantage. In fact, it just favors the lucky.
Edited to add; please stop drafting in early August. I know it was initially a measure to favor more astute/hard working owners, but the luck factor really mitigates any advantage. In fact, it just favors the lucky.
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az_prof
Footballguy
This is why his value will be dropping. We still don't know what kind of NFL back he is and he is now coming back from injury. Cook we had the advantage of seeing him in several regular season games and we knew he was good. Guice? He is now an undefined wild card. If you can win this year, you trade him for a player who has value this year. If you are not able to compete these year you hang onto him.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yep. A lot of these type of injuries happen in practice as well. There’s no solution other than to not play football.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
I think injuries will ultimately be the end of good football. we already see less and less kids getting into football because of injury concerns.
the game puts so much strain on the soft tissues, and as guys get bigger and hit harder, the body is going to eventually give away.
I do agree, the answer isnt less preseason games. I don't think there is a good answer. football is a sport where you are susceptible to injury, and nothing will change that. you can play another sport if you wish, and many are doing just that.
Crazysight
Footballguy
Ive seen this happen too often with ACLs over the years and supposed "sprains." My brother was the one who texted me about his injury update saying "oh good news, sprained MCL for Guice, avoided a catastrophy. Should be all that matters." Then i read the actual update myself that said he was also heading for an MRI to "confirm" the diagnosis, to which I thought "Oh god..."
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
1. it's weird seeing a Faust post that isnt a link. further evidence against you being a bot.
2. havent had any rookie drafts so I cant comment on that
3. I'm not a fan of penny or jones. Freeman I'm reconsidering. kerryon I like. chubb is an equal investment as Guice at this point. Michel is hurt as well, so hes behind. if I hold 1.2 my team is likely bad anyways, so holding a pick for 2019 isnt such a terrible thing. it sucks not playing with your new toy for a week though.
I imagine Guice is making it to 1.7-9 which I'd be very comfortable taking him. I'd have RBs ordered: Barkely, Michel, Kerryon, Freeman, Guice/Chubb. I'd think real hard about taking him 1.2, but I'd probably chicken out. I'd likely be looking to trade down and still get him around 1.6 or 1.7 if he made it. if not I'd be happy with chubb, freeman or kerryon
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Not a rookie draft but i was offered Guice for DJ Moore, which i rejected. Also offered Guice for both Miller and Gallup, which i also rejected. He had talked about maybe taking Miller or Gallup and Callaway but he decided he needed more.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Personally I think a lot of these guys overdo it in the weight room. The additional relentless exertion and strength in the muscles combined with the lack of healing time just puts too much strain on the tendons and ligaments. But I’m no doctor so I may just as well be full of BS.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Over Moore for me. I dont know about Gallup and Miller. One of those and Callaway for sure
To add to this and these are all different leagues. In all these leagues my team is heavy favorite or at worst heavy top 2 contender so my original thought was to try and upgrade my #1 next year but in only one of these leagues in only one of these leagues did both teams have #1's next year.
I offered someone Michel and 4th for Guice and Mack. Got instantly rejected, like within a minute. Made a new offer and said I shot high but let them know they can keep Mack so Michel for Guice straight. That offer stood for over 24 hours and I eventually pulled it, more on why in a bit.
Another league I offered Ronald Jones for Guice and a flip flop of 1st's next year for Guice. They said no.
Third league I offered up two deals, Michel in one and Jones in the other for Guice and a fairly minor second round pick upgrade next year, my second for theirs. Went over 24 hour, no response from an owner I frankly don't care much for and never responds to trade offers so I pulled the offers.
Key things to note:
*in all of those leagues I'm deep at RB and I'd label Michel or Jones as my RB5-RB6. Those teams are also fairly deep in general so should 2-3 of my RB's go down it would not be cause for panic so long as my WR's and TE's were relatively healthy. So to me when making those offers my thought process was I'm losing depth for a what I view as a long term upgrade.
*If those teams were thin at RB or thin with overall depth not sure I'd have offered any of those deals. Trying to answer @Faust question directly on where would I feel comfortable taking Guice requires context, how much do I need help right now being the main thing? If I need help now not so easy to take Guice high but on teams without a major need I'd honestly have him in no worse than top 4.
*I think I had a flaw, maybe several flaws, in my thought process on offering Guice for Jones and Michel straight up. Flaw #1: Just because I don't need a RB does not mean other teams won't and if not now eventually Flaw #2: Michel is getting dinged for injury and Jones for poor showing and both to some degree for lack of camp buzz. Their value in theory, barring a massive injury, likely can only increase so if I don't need to make a move today why not wait? Flaw #3: I made those offers after mulling over a question similar to the one Faust asked, where would I take Guice in a rookie dynasty draft. I was thinking on those teams, teams without immediate need, I'd take him 2 or 3 most likely. The flaw is this, I'm not limited to rookies when offering up Michel or Jones.
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I fell into this thought process too, although with a twist. I'm trying to move him to bad teams for "older" guys but those teams don't seem to realize they are bad. In one I offered Guice for Fitzgerald and McCoy and got rejected no counter. Guy was 2-11 last year, didn't have his 1st rounder this year, and has zero chance of contending yet he's worried about needing a starter. Another league I offered Guice for AJ Green - same result, and this is a league with contracts that expire and AJ Green only has two years left. Guice for DT and Crowell - nope. I'm about to start shopping for him now in leagues I don't own him at this rate.
I'm done trying to push him. I'll wait until someone's 2-5 and then make sure I get a lot more out of him than I originally asked.
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squistion
Footballguy
I'm at 1.11 too in a 15 keeper and I think that will also be my choice. I am in a quandary as to what to do. I may just punt and take Gesicki.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I had Moore as the #2 player after Barkley. Just my personal evaluation. Ended up trading dor Guice. Cost me Miller, Coutee, Akins and a future 2,3,4
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Its been 3 days since we found out Guice will miss the 2018 yet his FBGs rookie ranking hasn't changed. I tend to believe this is because most of dynasty staff haven't tweeked their rankings yet. Of the 3 who post comments, only one (Woods) has updated his notes to acknowledge the injury while the other 2 still comment on him being a major contributor this year.
Having said that, just about everyone in the dynasty community is aware of his injury. I'm looking for opinions on his long-term value and the likelihood of his return to pre-injury skills. Other high 1st rd rookie RBs may not contribute much this year as well. Chubb, Penny, Jones, Michel all have questions surrounding their impact for '18. So if you're not counting on major production from your 1st round rookie RB, how far do you drop Guice?
Having said that, just about everyone in the dynasty community is aware of his injury. I'm looking for opinions on his long-term value and the likelihood of his return to pre-injury skills. Other high 1st rd rookie RBs may not contribute much this year as well. Chubb, Penny, Jones, Michel all have questions surrounding their impact for '18. So if you're not counting on major production from your 1st round rookie RB, how far do you drop Guice?
I expect him to come back at 100%, but that may not be until at least November 2019, and more likely 2020. I do not believe that only a calendar year to come back to your prior self is a safe bet.
As of today, I have dropped him down to about RB5 from RB2 simply because a couple of the other guys will be able to be counted on for 2018. In terms of future outlook, I think he’s now behind Chubb and Kerryon for sure. I need to see more from the other rookies to move them ahead of him, and I really don’t like any of the WRs from this class to develop into a true WR1 ranking.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I see Guice as a minimally risky bet for 2019, but the good news is that he should be cleared for running before Washington finishes their season. this bodes well for him to condition this offseason and be ready to start the season without a delay that we would expect from someone who was hurt week 6 for example.
I see him as 100% as 100% can be by the start of the regular season next year. if hes got any rust it'll be from not having played in a full football game for over 18 months. that's always risky. theres always the chance he has some bit of a regression as some do after an acl tear, but we have nothing to compare him to so we will never know
the silver lining in all of this is that hes only 21 years old. next year he will be the same age as the top rookie rbs in your rookie draft. had he stayed in school he was possibly the first rb taken next year. so it's not like hes about to be 23 like Chubb. he has many years ahead of him
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Amused to Death
Footballguy
Dalvin Cook had the same injury, and is being drafted as RB9 this year. And his injury came in week 4. Guice will have a longer recovery time before next season starts. I have not been following Cook this offseason, how's he looked? Granted different position but Wentz tore his ACL and LCL in December and is hopeful to start week 1.
Now you think Guice is behind Chubb and Kerryon. If Guice was your #2 before the injury, why have you devalued him long-term?
Amused to Death
Footballguy
This is kinda how I'm looking at it. Dynasty is for long-term and if Guice was your #2 before the injury, the only reason I can see to knock him down is if you don't think he'll return to 100%. I get it, you get nothing from him this year. But how much confidence do people have that Chubb can be a contributor this year? I think Penny has a clearer path, but he has not been named the starter yet. And if he is, what's his work load going to be like if Carson's also in the picture? Looking ahead to '19, is KJohnson really going to be better than Guice? I think there's a good argument to leave Guice as your 1.02 if that's where you had him originally.
