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RB Derrius Guice, Free Agent (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Dawg Pound 69
Footballguy
Schefter's report made no sense. Guice's injury came before Love's. So to say they drafted Love in case Guice isn't ready ? Guice will be ready well before Love. Love's injury was a big enough concern that many teams had him completely off their draft boards.
Raptors409
Footballguy
Loved him last year. Want to trade for him but the owner has a death grip. If his price is fair in redraft, I'd love to scoop up WRs early and take him as a RB2 later on.
tkrull
Footballguy
Raptors409
Footballguy
Expanding on this thought. I had him in the Nick Chubb territory as far as talent goes. Guice was never a burner from my estimation. I think he gives us 10 touchdowns this year, barring injury. Washington is going to give him every chance to be "the guy". We will find out if he has the physical makeup to be "the guy". Risk reward.
Ted Stickles
Footballguy
Choo Choo! All aboard!
-OZ-
Footballguy
That's the rub. I like him enough, but I expect to see more Byrce Love in the second half (seeing if he can replace Thompson), making this a three headed monster potentially.
Potentially, this is new Orleans light. But with two Kamaras.
TripItUp
Footballguy
I wouldn't expect Love to eat into Guice's opportunities. I see AP as the bigger threat in 2019. Love has a long road back.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
skinfanjon
Footballguy
There's a good chance we red-shirt Love on IR. AP and Thompson for however long he stays healthy are the bigger concerns. Not to mention the first half of the schedule is absolutely brutal.
Guice should become a better fantasy option as the season goes along. He's a hold in dynasty for me. Mid season target in redraft if he's too expensive on draft day.
Guice should become a better fantasy option as the season goes along. He's a hold in dynasty for me. Mid season target in redraft if he's too expensive on draft day.
TripItUp
Footballguy
skinfanjon
Footballguy
The prevailing thought is we drafted Love to be Guice's backup next year. Thompson is a 29 year old free agent. AP is what, 34? Fighting father time.
I think it was a wasted pick personally.
I think it was a wasted pick personally.
If they'd spent a 2nd-rounder I'd agree, but a mid-4th? 90% of 4th-rounders will be out of the league before their rookie deals are up anyway ... you might as well take the chance that a guy with 1st-round talent can beat the injury odds. It worked out pretty well for the Niners with Frank Gore.
Personally it's exactly the kind of strategy more teams should be employing with their mid-rounders IMO.
In redraft, I agree that I wouldn't bother with him unless your league has multiple dedicated IR spots. The odds are good he'll start the season on PUP and most owners will be too impatient to hold him on the bench for a half-season or more.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Wasted pick has more to do with my opinion of the player than strategy of spending mid rounders on backups. Would have much rather seen a lineman or corner there instead of that particular player.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Never liked him. Straight line speed guy that seems to be a minus in the passing game. A lot like Ronald Jones imo. The injury and unavailability only make it worse.
...by the dynasty community. A month ago Harmon and Butler were seen as some of the best WRs in college football by the dynasty community.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Don't like Love at all. I don't see him as a threat to Guice one bit. Maybe as a COP type guy but all he has is straight line speed. That's it. And it was exposed in 2018
Even if he didn't tear his ACL, I'm not sure he goes much higher than he did in the draft. Maybe round 3
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
I can say this for the Steelers... 4th round players are "misses" at a very high rate for the 'Burgh. In the last 12 years and 12 players drafted in 4th, only Martavis Bryant was any good what-so-ever. 8.3%.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Sebowski
Footballguy
Seemed super low to me too, but I don't know aot of these guys. Someone with more time/knowledge help us out here.
4th round history
-OZ-
Footballguy
90% "out of the league" is a bit high but usually you're not missing out on much.Hankmoody said:
2015: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2015/draft.htm
It would be generous to say there are 7 relevant players taken in the 4th. A few good players.
Mike Davis and Buck Allen are good examples of the most realistic upside one should expect from a 4th rounder: part time contributor with some degree of fantasy relevance if enough injuries occur.
That being said, if a guy from a small school goes in the 4th, I perk up a bit more, but that does not describe Bryce Love.
I went through a few years looking at 4th round to 7th round... only a few names stood out:
2016: out of 16 RBs - Jordan Howard (good rookie year, two meh years, all but forgotten by his 4th year), Alex Collins (half a good year)
2015: out of 10 RBs - Jay Ajayi (one good year)
2014: out of 12 RBs - Devonta Freeman (first real gem yet), James White (one trick RBBC pony in the perfect system)
2013: out of 19 RBs - Chris Thompson (part time RBBC guy), Latavius Murray (replacement level/backup talent), Rex Burkhead (RBBC guy, zero fantasy notable seasons), Spencer Ware (replacement level/backup talent), Theo Riddick (part time RBBC guy)
2012: out of 14 RBs - Lamar Miller (quite a few RB2 seasons on a ppg basis), Robert Turbin (just kidding!), Alfred Morris (same skill set and trajectory as Jordan Howard)
So out of this pool of 71 players, the only two guys that might challenge Guice for meaningful playing time would be Freeman (4.03) and Miller (4.02). The other guys that were mildly fantasy relevant either flamed out quickly or were RBBC receiving specialists - something Love is not, at least not right now.
About how I see him.skinfanjon said:
I did draft him yesterday at pick 4.8 in FFPC because I have Guice and think if he can grow in the passing game the idea behind drafting him is for him to take over COP/third down duties from Thompson in 2020. Seemed like a cheap enough cost to me to potentially own the entire backfield heading into 2020. I figure at least first 6 weeks if not whole season he should only be taking up an IR spot, not a roster spot. But even owning Guice I passed on him at 3.10 and 3.11 meanwhile I'm in other drafts were non-Guice owners are drafting him as soon as late second and usually in the third round, seems a bit high to me.
One drawback I had in drafting him is just wondering if he will ever be active or have an opportunity to show me he is worth keeping when cuts are due next off-season. Hard to know but since James Andrews did his ACL surgery I figure Skins have reason to think he is recovering well enough and tore his ACL on December 1 so he'll have a year out for at least a few weeks.
dipandglide
Footballguy
A lot of great college players don't transition well to the NFL. I love (no pun intended) that there are all these Love truthers drafting this guy in the late 2nd and early 3rd. It allows more of my guys to fall to me in the mid-late round
Gandalf
Footballguy
I feel like Guice is now being under valued. Some people jumping ship. Chris Harris ranked him #41 for 2019.
https://www.harrisfootball.com/rbranks-draft
I love Harris and what he does and I think this is more his way of punting the WAS RB situation. But still #41? Maybe I am taking a more long term perspective but I think he’s a good bit low in dynasty.
https://www.harrisfootball.com/rbranks-draft
I love Harris and what he does and I think this is more his way of punting the WAS RB situation. But still #41? Maybe I am taking a more long term perspective but I think he’s a good bit low in dynasty.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
I agree Harris has him too low even for redraft. (I hope that's a redraft ranking.) But his real life value is definitely higher.
Gandalf
Footballguy
I think this is just his way of saying he wants no part of the Washington running game in 2019. But if we look out a year from now, Guice might be poised to be approaching RB1 territory and he can be had for less than that. 12-18 months from now I think his value is much higher so buy now.
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
The owners of Guice spent high draft capital on him last year and don’t want to move him on the cheap in my situations. Not even sure what to offer at this point.
I’m hoping he starts the season off slow, and then is the time to go get him.
-OZ-
Footballguy
That's a steal. Makes my trade back in March of 1.03 (Harry) look like a bad overpay
cloppbeast
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
Possibly.
I'm not regretting my trade, just saying this one shows Guice can be had much cheaper.
Had this discussion last week in the trade thread but I think in different drafts he'd range from 1-5 but his ADP would be 1.2. I traded him last week along with a projected late 2020#2 for 1.2/2.2. FWIW I'd have held him for just the 1.2, he would be my #2 player.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
They are predicting 1100 yards total and 6-8 tds. That is about what I expect as well and don’t think it is a bad thing. Starts slow, finishes strong.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
hard to believe those stats dont put him into the top 24
ETA: that very well may not be enough... just glancing at those numbers I feel like I'd be pretty happy with that from my rb2. guess I'm a bit off on what it takes to be top 24
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Agreed. I just think it may be a tale of two halves for him. Similar to Chubb last year.Dr. Dan said:
