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RB D'Onta Foreman, CLE (1 Viewer)

Looks like Foreman might be their best runner. He's got a Henry vibe to him.

Always liked his raw ability. It's possible Foreman could become their feature back when he gets up to speed.

 
Looks like Foreman is easily their best runner as things stand right this minute, but there’s a lot more to it, obviously. Just depends on if Peterson improves as he gets acclimated to the NFL again and if they develop trust in Foreman as he learns the playbook.

AP has the advantage now as a hyper-experienced vet. McNichols seems locked into the pass-catching/COP role.

 
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I second Football Jones's take. Easily their most spry and largest back. It doesn't even seem close. Of course, I rostered him so I'm biased, but he really did look like the best and I think I have an ability to be honest about guys I roster. 

 
rockaction said:
I second Football Jones's take. Easily their most spry and largest back. It doesn't even seem close. Of course, I rostered him so I'm biased, but he really did look like the best and I think I have an ability to be honest about guys I roster. 
Click to expand...


Third! Agreed. Ideally rostered as a fantasy playoff dice roll. It may take a few weeks for the Titans to feel comfortable with him. I can't blame them for rolling with Peterson initially. The Titans situation is good enough for Foreman to excel even if/when he gains the lead role and his passing down duties remain limited.

 
Yea he looked like a rocket compared to Peterson.  He is either going to take over the primary roll or at least keep the backfield a 3 headed monster.

Part of me thought he even looked a little like Henry on some plays

 
killface said:
Yea he looked like a rocket compared to Peterson.  He is either going to take over the primary roll or at least keep the backfield a 3 headed monster.

Part of me thought he even looked a little like Henry on some plays
Click to expand...
Peterson didn't look good until his last few carries. Maybe it's rust. Foreman did look better.

 
I haven't seen any of this game but just looking at the stats Foreman has the most carries and he also has 2 receptions for 48 yards which will make for some decent points from this game.

 
Biabreakable said:
I haven't seen any of this game but just looking at the stats Foreman has the most carries and he also has 2 receptions for 48 yards which will make for some decent points from this game.
Click to expand...


I watched some of the second half.  For transparency, I do own one share of Foreman.

Like last week, he looked like the RB with the most burst.  That said, this was a tough game to evaluate RB play as the Saints' strong rush defense played as advertised.  During the time I watched, Foreman was hit frequently after gaining 2-3 yards.  He did a good job of falling forward but didn't break a ton of tackles.

He gained most of his receiving yards on a screen pass.  It was a well-designed play, and Foreman played his role well by staying in the backfield feigning pass protection before rolling left to make the catch and run.  It wasn't a play that would make you say "he's amazing," but he seemed to execute the various demands of a screen play correctly.

In my small sample, Peterson was the goal-line back, although that did come after Foreman's long catch and run.

Tennessee has played two straight strong run defenses but has the easiest strength of schedule remaining.  Houston next week will offer an interesting look at what the run game can do.

I'm intrigued by the potential, especially with the schedule remaining.

 
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rschroeder1 said:
I watched some of the second half.  For transparency, I do own one share of Foreman.

Like last week, he looked like the RB with the most burst.  That said, this was a tough game to evaluate RB play as the Saints' strong rush defense played as advertised.  During the time I watched, Foreman was hit frequently after gaining 2-3 yards.  He did a good job of falling forward but didn't break a ton of tackles.

He gained most of his receiving yards on a screen pass.  It was a well-designed play, and Foreman played his role well by staying in the backfield feigning pass protection before rolling left to make the catch and run.  It wasn't a play that would make you say "he's amazing," but he seemed to execute the various demands of a screen play correctly.

In my small sample, Peterson was the goal-line back, although that did come after Foreman's long catch and run.

Tennessee has played two straight strong run defenses but has the easiest strength of schedule remaining.  Houston next week will offer an interesting look at what the run game can do.

I'm intrigued by the potential, especially with the schedule remaining.
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I own him as well...and agreed with all above 👍

 
rschroeder1 said:
I watched some of the second half.  For transparency, I do own one share of Foreman.

Like last week, he looked like the RB with the most burst.  That said, this was a tough game to evaluate RB play as the Saints' strong rush defense played as advertised.  During the time I watched, Foreman was hit frequently after gaining 2-3 yards.  He did a good job of falling forward but didn't break a ton of tackles.

He gained most of his receiving yards on a screen pass.  It was a well-designed play, and Foreman played his role well by staying in the backfield feigning pass protection before rolling left to make the catch and run.  It wasn't a play that would make you say "he's amazing," but he seemed to execute the various demands of a screen play correctly.

In my small sample, Peterson was the goal-line back, although that did come after Foreman's long catch and run.

Tennessee has played two straight strong run defenses but has the easiest strength of schedule remaining.  Houston next week will offer an interesting look at what the run game can do.

I'm intrigued by the potential, especially with the schedule remaining.
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Thank you for sharing your observations.

I did watch the highlights of the game which showed Foremans 2 receptions but no runs. I agree with your comments about the screen pass.

I am mostly happy to see Foreman looking healthy after that achilles injury. He showed some good burst I thought and maybe the same player I became interested in prior to the injury.

 
Will with cub on IR and gronk or. I had 2 open slots on my roster.

I picked him up. I also grabbed Kmet in bye as right now Knox and Gronk are killing me.

I will likely need to drop 2 players this coming week.

Choices are Foreman vs Drake in standard. Who is the better hold ROS?

 
ghostguy123 said:
So is Foreman the RB to own here the rest of the way?
Click to expand...
Maybe.

Peterson really has looked meh...when he actually gets the ball.  They seemed to fake to him a lot early on.

I have ADP and am likely cutting him from the squad and for a 2nd D rather than going after Foreman.

 
If there is a RB worth owning it's for sure Foreman. A 3 headed rotation makes any of them hard to like using but as we've seen this year attrition happens.

 
rschroeder1 said:
Here's another perspective on Foreman with a negative evaluation of his performance today.  I am not familiar at all with this advanced stat.  The analysis continues in the thread beyond the first tweet, including two videos from Matt Waldman.

https://twitter.com/ThomasGower/status/1460055001489940481
Click to expand...
RYOE? Run yards over expected?

So someone looks at the all 22 sees the hole open and decides where the RB should have gone and how many yards he would have gained?

 
Chaka said:
RYOE? Run yards over expected?

So someone looks at the all 22 sees the hole open and decides where the RB should have gone and how many yards he would have gained?
Click to expand...
Yeah, you have to take a metric like that with a HUGE grain of salt.

The yardage part is probly better off scrapped. Even determining where the RB should've gone is subjective, IMO.

 
Chaka said:
RYOE? Run yards over expected?

So someone looks at the all 22 sees the hole open and decides where the RB should have gone and how many yards he would have gained?
Click to expand...


Most of these "advanced" metrics are pretty stupid and worthless, IMO.

 
Football Jones said:
Yeah, you have to take a metric like that with a HUGE grain of salt.

The yardage part is probly better off scrapped. Even determining where the RB should've gone is subjective, IMO.
Click to expand...
The bigger concern is the the lack of broken tackles. I'm not sure I've seen him get more than 1-2 yards after initial contact. He gets hit, stops his feet, and falls down 90% of the time. I'm seeing a lot of yardage that is scheme/run blocking based. There's very little where he is adding value to the run plays.

As for Rushing Yards over Expected, I don't know what that metric is but rushing analytics has gotten decently advanced. A couple of European scientists (who knew nothing of American football) won the Big Data Bowl a couple years ago with a rushing prediction model that was eerily accurate. That is, it could very eerily predict what yardage would be given the parameters of a play. Its voodoo, but voodoo that works. 

You can read more here: https://www.sportperformanceanalysis.com/article/how-the-nfl-developed-expected-rushing-yards-with-the-big-data-bowl

"For example, when a player takes 29 yards from a run, if the model calculated an expected yardage gain of 25 yards for that run given the spacing the running back had at the handoff, that player should only get credited for having achieved 4 yards above the average. This new way for interpreting a 29 yards run would not have been possible unless a model successfully conditioned its probability calculation based on the space available to the running back to determine whether that player has performed above or below expectation."

It sounds like analytical nonsense, but it did an impressive job in predicting rushing yards in 2019. 

One of the fascinating lessons is what mattered to determining expected yardage: the location of the defenders, the routed distance between defenders and the ball carrier, the routed speed of the defenders and ball carrier, the routed distance between all offensive players and all defensive players, and the routed speed of all offensive players and all defensive players.

What rushing attacks have success? Those that cause defenders to wrong foot, those that create space in the running game (vs. crowding the LoS hello Jon Gruden), etc.

edit: I probably wasn't entirely clear on how the Big Data Bowl worked. These models didn't predict past rushing results, they predicted future rushing results (I think Week 5 on in the 2019 season). So this model used, I believe the first half second of a play, to accurately predict how many yards would be gained. 

What mattered in the model:

* Player position
* Ballcarrier speed at handoff
* Direction players were heading 

What didn't matter:
* Score
* Surface
* Down and distance
* Team
* Running back

So simply, what determined how many yards an RB was going to gain at the handoff was determined by where he was running, his speed, and the direction and proximity of the defenders in front of him.

A fun example of how well this worked. There were 5 runs they predicted that would gain 20 yards and... those 5 plays averaged 19.2 yards.

This tells us a lot of really interesting things. Motion matters! Don't run against stacked boxes! RB matters much less than scheme. 

 
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Football Jones said:
Yeah, you have to take a metric like that with a HUGE grain of salt.

The yardage part is probly better off scrapped. Even determining where the RB should've gone is subjective, IMO.
Click to expand...
Waldman's videos were decent. I can see the argument he makes although I am unsure if, like he said, ADP is able to make that cut anymore.

 
rschroeder1 said:
I'm starting him out of necessity, but you really couldn't dream up a better matchup than this one.
Click to expand...


That's pretty much the only reason I'm starting him. Hopefully he gets most of the touches and he's playing the Texans.

 
voiceofunreason said:
That's pretty much the only reason I'm starting him. Hopefully he gets most of the touches and he's playing the Texans.
Click to expand...
With Cordell hurt Foreman was the next man up ,but i wasn't comfortable so i traded for AJ Dillon . I feel much better waiting a little longer to see if Foreman can take over that backfield 

 
btemp said:
The bigger concern is the the lack of broken tackles. I'm not sure I've seen him get more than 1-2 yards after initial contact. He gets hit, stops his feet, and falls down 90% of the time. I'm seeing a lot of yardage that is scheme/run blocking based. There's very little where he is adding value to the run plays.

As for Rushing Yards over Expected, I don't know what that metric is but rushing analytics has gotten decently advanced. A couple of European scientists (who knew nothing of American football) won the Big Data Bowl a couple years ago with a rushing prediction model that was eerily accurate. That is, it could very eerily predict what yardage would be given the parameters of a play. Its voodoo, but voodoo that works. 

You can read more here: https://www.sportperformanceanalysis.com/article/how-the-nfl-developed-expected-rushing-yards-with-the-big-data-bowl

"For example, when a player takes 29 yards from a run, if the model calculated an expected yardage gain of 25 yards for that run given the spacing the running back had at the handoff, that player should only get credited for having achieved 4 yards above the average. This new way for interpreting a 29 yards run would not have been possible unless a model successfully conditioned its probability calculation based on the space available to the running back to determine whether that player has performed above or below expectation."

It sounds like analytical nonsense, but it did an impressive job in predicting rushing yards in 2019. 

One of the fascinating lessons is what mattered to determining expected yardage: the location of the defenders, the routed distance between defenders and the ball carrier, the routed speed of the defenders and ball carrier, the routed distance between all offensive players and all defensive players, and the routed speed of all offensive players and all defensive players.

What rushing attacks have success? Those that cause defenders to wrong foot, those that create space in the running game (vs. crowding the LoS hello Jon Gruden), etc.

edit: I probably wasn't entirely clear on how the Big Data Bowl worked. These models didn't predict past rushing results, they predicted future rushing results (I think Week 5 on in the 2019 season). So this model used, I believe the first half second of a play, to accurately predict how many yards would be gained. 

What mattered in the model:

* Player position
* Ballcarrier speed at handoff
* Direction players were heading 

What didn't matter:
* Score
* Surface
* Down and distance
* Team
* Running back

So simply, what determined how many yards an RB was going to gain at the handoff was determined by where he was running, his speed, and the direction and proximity of the defenders in front of him.

A fun example of how well this worked. There were 5 runs they predicted that would gain 20 yards and... those 5 plays averaged 19.2 yards.

This tells us a lot of really interesting things. Motion matters! Don't run against stacked boxes! RB matters much less than scheme. 
Click to expand...
Thanks for sharing! That was super interesting. 

Foreman has always reminded me a bit of Ron Dayne. He's a big dude, but defenders could just sweep the leg every single time. But every once in a while, they'll hit for that 40 yd TD run. I could see Foreman having a game against the Texans like Dayne did against the Cowboys back in Thanksgiving 2005.

 
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Something tells me AP isn't done just yet.

The snaps and touches have been fairly equal. Don't see why that would change. And AP still seems to be the goal line guy.

Both could be good plays against HOU.

 
btemp said:
The bigger concern is the the lack of broken tackles. I'm not sure I've seen him get more than 1-2 yards after initial contact. He gets hit, stops his feet, and falls down 90% of the time. I'm seeing a lot of yardage that is scheme/run blocking based. There's very little where he is adding value to the run plays.

As for Rushing Yards over Expected, I don't know what that metric is but rushing analytics has gotten decently advanced. A couple of European scientists (who knew nothing of American football) won the Big Data Bowl a couple years ago with a rushing prediction model that was eerily accurate. That is, it could very eerily predict what yardage would be given the parameters of a play. Its voodoo, but voodoo that works. 

You can read more here: https://www.sportperformanceanalysis.com/article/how-the-nfl-developed-expected-rushing-yards-with-the-big-data-bowl

"For example, when a player takes 29 yards from a run, if the model calculated an expected yardage gain of 25 yards for that run given the spacing the running back had at the handoff, that player should only get credited for having achieved 4 yards above the average. This new way for interpreting a 29 yards run would not have been possible unless a model successfully conditioned its probability calculation based on the space available to the running back to determine whether that player has performed above or below expectation."

It sounds like analytical nonsense, but it did an impressive job in predicting rushing yards in 2019. 

One of the fascinating lessons is what mattered to determining expected yardage: the location of the defenders, the routed distance between defenders and the ball carrier, the routed speed of the defenders and ball carrier, the routed distance between all offensive players and all defensive players, and the routed speed of all offensive players and all defensive players.

What rushing attacks have success? Those that cause defenders to wrong foot, those that create space in the running game (vs. crowding the LoS hello Jon Gruden), etc.

edit: I probably wasn't entirely clear on how the Big Data Bowl worked. These models didn't predict past rushing results, they predicted future rushing results (I think Week 5 on in the 2019 season). So this model used, I believe the first half second of a play, to accurately predict how many yards would be gained. 

What mattered in the model:

* Player position
* Ballcarrier speed at handoff
* Direction players were heading 

What didn't matter:
* Score
* Surface
* Down and distance
* Team
* Running back

So simply, what determined how many yards an RB was going to gain at the handoff was determined by where he was running, his speed, and the direction and proximity of the defenders in front of him.

A fun example of how well this worked. There were 5 runs they predicted that would gain 20 yards and... those 5 plays averaged 19.2 yards.

This tells us a lot of really interesting things. Motion matters! Don't run against stacked boxes! RB matters much less than scheme. 
Click to expand...
That is very interesting. Thanks for posting. I'd seen it elsewhere on the NFL.com site but couldn't really delve into it because I don't think I understood it as well as you did. 

 
kyoun1e said:
Something tells me AP isn't done just yet.

The snaps and touches have been fairly equal. Don't see why that would change. And AP still seems to be the goal line guy.

Both could be good plays against HOU.
Click to expand...
I don't believe in any of the Tenn RBs, but if I had to, it would be ADP.  I simply don't trust Foreman to do a lot.

 
For me it probably depends on if CEH comes back (I have Darrel Williams).  If CEH is out then it's an easy call, if CEH is in then I may be starting Foreman.

 
JohnnyU said:
I don't believe in any of the Tenn RBs, but if I had to, it would be ADP.  I simply don't trust Foreman to do a lot.
Click to expand...
Interesting.  My eyes tell me that Foreman looks more explosive than ADP and should receive the most touches for the Titans.  

 
kyoun1e said:
Something tells me AP isn't done just yet.

The snaps and touches have been fairly equal. Don't see why that would change. And AP still seems to be the goal line guy.

Both could be good plays against HOU.
Click to expand...
Absolutely possible. ADP could still be rounding back into form and he is someone that has earned the right to not be dismissed. Foreman isn't lighting the world on fire for sure but Peterson has looked even worse.

 
DocHolliday said:
Interesting.  My eyes tell me that Foreman looks more explosive than ADP and should receive the most touches for the Titans.  
Click to expand...


I was listening to an ex-NFL GM a few days after his MNF debut two weeks ago and in his opinion he thought Foreman looked like a better RB  then AP but what was interesting to me was he said that Foreman was a "really, really, really" talented RB and to underline the word "really". Said something along the lines of Foreman just has never cared, has never worked hard or taken his craft seriously enough. Thought it was an interesting take.

 
menobrown said:
Said something along the lines of Foreman just has never cared, has never worked hard or taken his craft seriously enough. Thought it was an interesting take.
Click to expand...


That is interesting and pretty aggressive lacking further elaboration.   

Honest question, if Foreman climbs to the top of the Titans committee, has any RB with a ruptured Achilles managed to do that (become the top rusher on his respective team)?   I haven't followed his career too closely, but wasn't his time in Houston a pretty quick ascension that was derailed by the injury? 

 
sushinsky4tsar said:
That is interesting and pretty aggressive lacking further elaboration.   

Honest question, if Foreman climbs to the top of the Titans committee, has any RB with a ruptured Achilles managed to do that (become the top rusher on his respective team)?   I haven't followed his career too closely, but wasn't his time in Houston a pretty quick ascension that was derailed by the injury? 
Click to expand...


All I remember about his time in Houston was him breaking off a long run on the play he got hurt. Owned him a few non-dynasty leagues and was watching the run thinking I might finally have something tangible at RB to put in my lineups and just like that he was done.

As for the achilles issue we've really not seen a ton of RB's suffer achilles injuries in last few years so the argument about RB's not being able to recover is more TBD for me. We certainly have seen other positions and players in other sports recover like nothing. So achilles naysayers might say "show me the RB who fully recovered from achilles" and for me it's more along the lines of "show me the RB who in recent memory never recovered from his achilles". Arian Foster is only one I can recall and at that point in his career he was 29 and I'm not sure willing or able to put in the work needed to return.

 
JohnnyU said:
Not sure "explosive" is the word I would use for Foreman.
Click to expand...
I cannot argue with that!   ADP looks slower though but he may just be rusty.  I don’t own either RB at the moment.  I may have to choose one of them as a desperation play this week though.  Yes.  My team sucks.  

 
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