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RB Doug Martin, Free Agent (2 Viewers)

I'd prefer they keep him.  Assuming he's working out like he's going to play in 2017.  They don't have to actually make a decision on him until he's set to come back from suspension.  Draft someone, re-sign Quizz, they have Sims.  With Doug in the fold you have a pretty dynamic backfield if all hands are on deck and some depth if they aren't.

Doug at $7M is better than Peterson or Charles at $5M+, in my opinion, unless they're trying to have the fanciest names on their IR roster.

 
 

Doug Martin completed his rehab stint in February.
Martin checked into rehab shortly after testing positive for Adderall, which triggered a four-game PED suspension. He met with Buccaneers coach Dirk Koetter and GM Jason Licht before the Combine and was reportedly in good spirits. Following rehab, Martin was expected to train in California in preparation for OTAs. It's unclear if Martin factors into the Bucs' long-term plans, but he won't cost them any money during his suspension.

 
 
Source: Tampa Bay Times 
Mar 19 - 9:14 AM
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Roy Cummings of Florida Football Insiders reports suspended RB Doug Martin is expected to attend the start of Bucs offseason workouts on Monday.

After completing rehab stemming from his four-game drug suspension, Martin is "all good," according to Cummings. Martin recently posted an inspirational photo on his Twitter account with a caption reading, "Never forget your past, it's the foundation that built your existence and the secret to your future." As all of the guaranteed money in his contract was voided by the suspension, Martin's roster spot in Tampa Bay remains a 2017 question mark.

 
 
Source: Florida Football Insiders
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NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports the Bucs passed on a running back at No. 19 overall partly because Doug Martin has been "the most impressive player thus far" at offseason workouts in Tampa Bay.

Okay. Teams have done close to zero actual football work to this point in the offseason programs, but Martin reportedly is in great shape following his stint in rehab. He's still suspended for the first three games of the year, and the Bucs could easily address the running back spot on Friday evening. Taking TE O.J. Howard at No. 19 had more to do with an elite talent falling into their lap.

 
 
Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter
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This fits the Martin pattern.  Plays lights out with money on the line, sucks otherwise.  With TB able to void his guaranteed money, he's playing lights out.

 
Maybe McNichols will add a little pressure to Martin.  He's been one of the "rookie sleeper favorites" on some draftnik boards.

 
Martin can be released at any time with no cap hit. His salary in 2017 is $5.7M and goes up to $6.75M in 2018 and $7M in 2019-20. Assuming he carries his strong performance throughout offseason/preseason, I think he plays in 2017. If McNichols looks good, I expect Martin would then be released after 2017, and McNichols stands to become the primary RB in an explosive offense. Strong dynasty value for McNichols IMO, not so clear for Martin, since it is impossible to know where he will play in 2018.

 
 

Jameis Winston expects a bounce back year from suspended RB Doug Martin.
"One name that’s going to shock…Doug Martin," Winston said. "He looks incredible. The way he’s bursting and just being so explosive. It really shows his resilience and how well he's prepared this offseason." This falls in line with comments from GM Jason Licht. Martin was one of the biggest post-draft winners with the Bucs only adding Jeremy McNichols in the fifth round. Despite some offseason rumblings, the Bucs look committed to Martin as their starter.

 
 
Source: Pewter Report 
May 10 - 7:16 PM
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Doug Martin appears to be working as the first-team running back at OTAs.
Martin being atop the depth chart is not a surprise considering how much praise he has garnered for his work this offseason. Things can change, but for now it looks like the Bucs are committed to Martin as their starter once he is able to return Week 4. Jacquizz Rodgers was second through the line behind Martin with Charles Sims third. Fifth-rounder Jeremy McNichols will also have a role to play.

 
 
Source: Roy Cummings on Twitter 
May 23 - 11:25 AM
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Just Win Baby said:
Martin can be released at any time with no cap hit. His salary in 2017 is $5.7M and goes up to $6.75M in 2018 and $7M in 2019-20. Assuming he carries his strong performance throughout offseason/preseason, I think he plays in 2017. If McNichols looks good, I expect Martin would then be released after 2017, and McNichols stands to become the primary RB in an explosive offense. Strong dynasty value for McNichols IMO, not so clear for Martin, since it is impossible to know where he will play in 2018.
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He is a good receiver who has some all around game, but McNichols goes down really easy to all kinds of tackles. He just gets blasted some times which makes me wonder how that is going to work when defenders are much faster and more physical.

To me McNichols seems like a player who will be limited to space type of role, not that different than Sims or Rodgers. I don't see him being  consistently effective as an inside runner, so I would expect him to always be in some form of a time share, rather than a RB who could become the primary featured RB. like Martin.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Martin can be released at any time with no cap hit. His salary in 2017 is $5.7M and goes up to $6.75M in 2018 and $7M in 2019-20. Assuming he carries his strong performance throughout offseason/preseason, I think he plays in 2017. If McNichols looks good, I expect Martin would then be released after 2017, and McNichols stands to become the primary RB in an explosive offense. Strong dynasty value for McNichols IMO, not so clear for Martin, since it is impossible to know where he will play in 2018.
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That's making a big assumption that McNicohls is the RB of the future for the Bucs. Some reports have said he may not even make the team this year. They could restructure Martin, sign a FA, use a high draft pick at the position or a guy like Rodgers, Sims or Barber could be a one year stopgap. "Strong" dynasty value seems like a stretch. I got him in the late fourth round of one league (and thats generally where he went) - that's usually flyer territory.

 
With Martin suspended for the first three games I don't think there's any doubt that McNichols will "make the team." Once Martin comes back in week 4 the position will probably have already sorted itself out. 

 
Just Win Baby said:
Martin can be released at any time with no cap hit. His salary in 2017 is $5.7M and goes up to $6.75M in 2018 and $7M in 2019-20. Assuming he carries his strong performance throughout offseason/preseason, I think he plays in 2017. If McNichols looks good, I expect Martin would then be released after 2017, and McNichols stands to become the primary RB in an explosive offense. Strong dynasty value for McNichols IMO, not so clear for Martin, since it is impossible to know where he will play in 2018.
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That's putting the cart a bit before the horse.  You're not accounting for if Martin plays well.  Martin's salary isn't at all prohibitive if he plays well. They have Martin right where they want him.  Potential to make huge money but none of it is guaranteed now.  He has to work for everything and he's got a ton to lose.   Teams LOVE to have a good excuse to pay their RB, because that means they have a really good RB.  If he's earning that $6M salary the Bucs will be estatic.  Yes, if he stinks it up he's an easy cut at those numbers, but there's a lot still to play out first.

 
Grahamburn said:
With Martin suspended for the first three games I don't think there's any doubt that McNichols will "make the team." Once Martin comes back in week 4 the position will probably have already sorted itself out. 
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While I think you are likely right, I was basing it off these quotes:

 
Recovering from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder, Bucs rookie Jeremy McNichols "hopes" to be ready for training camp.
McNichols postponed his surgery until after the Combine and was given a four-month timetable. He sat out rookie camp and will be in a race to be fully healed by late July. At the Bucs' post-draft presser, coach Dirk Koetter didn't guarantee McNichols would make the final 53. Tampa Bay is deep in the backfield
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Bucs coach Dirk Koetter said fifth-round RB Jeremy McNichols will face "pretty good competition" to earn a roster spot.
When asked how he plans to use McNichols, Koetter noted the rookie has yet to make the team before adding the Bucs "like the group we have in place here." Doug Martin's three-game suspension gives McNichols a good shot to make the squad, but it is far from a given he jumps Jacquizz Rodgers or Charles Sims
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These quotes don't mean a whole lot of course, but it's not like a 5th round pick is a lock to make a roster spot, let alone be the heir apparent. That's the only real point I was trying to make. Last offseason, there was plenty of people that liked Peyton Barber as a prospect and he showed some flashes in game action and he's still there as well. Injuries will likely help sort all of this out of course, and McNichols himself needs to get healthy - sitting out rookie camp and OTAs certainly doesn't help him.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
That's making a big assumption that McNicohls is the RB of the future for the Bucs. Some reports have said he may not even make the team this year. They could restructure Martin, sign a FA, use a high draft pick at the position or a guy like Rodgers, Sims or Barber could be a one year stopgap. "Strong" dynasty value seems like a stretch. I got him in the late fourth round of one league (and thats generally where he went) - that's usually flyer territory.
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Sorry, I wasn't very clear. I meant strong value relative to cost.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
While I think you are likely right, I was basing it off these quotes:

 

 
These quotes don't mean a whole lot of course, but it's not like a 5th round pick is a lock to make a roster spot, let alone be the heir apparent. That's the only real point I was trying to make. Last offseason, there was plenty of people that liked Peyton Barber as a prospect and he showed some flashes in game action and he's still there as well. Injuries will likely help sort all of this out of course, and McNichols himself needs to get healthy - sitting out rookie camp and OTAs certainly doesn't help him.
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I agree with all this and will add I think Barber is the heir apparent or that rb isn't on the team yet. 

 
Doug Martin says he came out of drug treatment a "stronger person."

"It was a journey of self-development," Martin said. "I definitely turned a negative into a positive and I'm out here and I'm definitely a stronger person because of it." They're just words, but Martin's actions so far have appeared to match, as he's drawn raves from the Bucs for his offseason work. Once a cut candidate, Martin now appears likely to reclaim his starting job when he comes off suspension in Week 4.

 
 
Source: ESPN.com 
May 25 - 2:31 PM
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According to Joe Bucs Fan, Doug Martin looks "quicker" and "bulkier" this year.

"Looks like a guy who’s been pounding it in the weight room," wrote Joe Bucs Fan. ESPN Bucs reporter Jenna Laine also posted a clip on Twitter showing Martin with a bursting run around the left side, with Laine noting "powerful running" and "nice cuts." There is obviously no contact at minicamp this week, but all reports around a rejuvenated Martin have been positive since he left rehab. Now basically year-to-year on his deal, Martin seems out to prove he still has "it" after a rough 2016. He'll have RB2 appeal once his three-game ban runs dry.

Source: Joe Bucs Fan

Jun 13 - 10:14 PM
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Doug Martin said he lost two percent body fat this offseason.

Already known as the Muscle Hamster, Martin put on even more muscle this offseason by increasing the intensity of his workouts while cutting out carbs including Chinese food, which had been his guilty pleasure. Martin drew rave reviews at OTAs and should return to lead back status upon his return from a PED suspension. He'll be eligible to return against the Giants in Week 4.

Source: Jenna Laine on Twitter
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Granted I'm a cynic by nature...but I don't buy that report about him not getting his job back being guaranteed.  I believe it's a virtual certainty.

There would be absolutely zero reason for the coaches to come out and tell the media that if it WERE in fact the case.  I firmly believe coaches and front office types constantly feed the media what they WANT put out there....and I think it's pretty obvious they wanted that put out there as the proverbial "carrot" over Martin's head to make sure he's motivated and has his head on straight upon his return.

Hopefully this news drops Martin's ADP even lower.  I'd buy him as a #3 or #4 rb all day for the upcoming season.

 
buck naked said:
I believe his suspension was for Adderall, which I don't believe is a PED for muscle mass.
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Adderall is just the scapegoat used by players who get busted for any positive test since the NFL doesn't say what they tested positive for.  It's always the player/team/agent saying what the positive test was for and it's always Adderall.

 
I thought Adderall was treated as a PED in-season because it was used as a masking agent. Martin says he was using it recreationally, which is also not uncommon.

 
I am of the belief that Tampa needs a healthy Martin. They struggled at times on short yardage when he was out. The scat backs just cant move the pile. I'm grabbing him as a RB #3 if he's around and then hope to snag Darren McFadden later to offset Martin's suspension.

 
TripItUp said:
I love his value this year...just nabbed him in the 7th round as RB28 in the FFPC format.

This is an example of where ignoring the preseason is a mistake...you would have missed the value presented here.
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I actually like Martin as a value pick this season--and where you got him is a value draft position.   I have seen him go as high as the 4th and 5th rounds in some of my drafts---and I don't like the value nearly as much there.   I think he's a guy that will bring a team late 3rd-mid 4th round value--which I think makes him a very good bargain anytime late 5th/early 6th or beyond.  Nice job getting him where you did.  

 
Yeah, he definitely looks good. Given how much volume he'll see when he gets back his low-end RB3 price tag is essentially his floor. The opportunity cost is low as long as he stays in and around the 7th round. If he starts to rise I'll start to weigh his injury history and efficiency (or lack thereof) from previous seasons more heavily.

 
Certainly looking like a value pick right now if your team can navigate through the first three weeks of the season. As mentioned above though, another game or two like this and he might not be such a value anymore.

 
Drum beat keeps going all off seasons and he looked fantastic in the game this week.  I still really like him at his current ADP assuming  one can find a mediocre fill in for the first three weeks. Schedule looks pretty juicy as well.  Won't reach for him until the late 5th or early 6th round of a 12 team league but I like him there.  

 
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