-jb-
Footballguy
Isn't that koetters mo? Mjd caught a boatload of screens. Not sure about sidelines tho
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RB Doug Martin, Free Agent (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Quez
Footballguy
Yes, the first thing my BIL(Atl fan) said when we got him was "get ready for screen passes"
Grahamburn
Footballguy
The personnel is eerily similar to Atlanta's.
Heep
Footballguy
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
Have had this little jerk the last 2 years. Hate him, a lot, but he looks really good.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
He looks great, but I don't trust their line. It looks good tonight, but it looked atrocious last week.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
good gawd
he really had about 6 carries and 35 yards which aint bad .... the big gainer was a disaster by the DEF and Winston sniped the TD ( get used to that )
oh he's a good RB to have .... RB1 ? no RB2? maybe .... maybe
he really had about 6 carries and 35 yards which aint bad .... the big gainer was a disaster by the DEF and Winston sniped the TD ( get used to that )
oh he's a good RB to have .... RB1 ? no RB2? maybe .... maybe
TartanLion
Footballguy
Excellent news. Hopefully he can keep it up.
althepostman
Footballguy
The big gainer was martin making people look stupid.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
I mean I like Martin ok .... but he gained 5-19 no catches week 1
week 2 preseason he busts a 30 yard run that was a 3 yards gain and the DEF didn't tackle and he got to the 1 and Winston sniped the TD
that screams resurrected career and RB1 and 2nd round drafting doesn't it ?
ya'll crack me up
week 2 preseason he busts a 30 yard run that was a 3 yards gain and the DEF didn't tackle and he got to the 1 and Winston sniped the TD
that screams resurrected career and RB1 and 2nd round drafting doesn't it ?
ya'll crack me up
Fantasysports1
Footballguy
I don't get Doug. What changed? The fact that he is in better shape? Now he has a QB?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
He is healthy?Fantasysports1 said:
The Bucs offensive line maybe isn't the worst in the league this year?
FWIW I thought Martin looked decent against the Vikings who were controlling the LOS pretty well. Martin still had some nice moves that can cause defenders to over pursue. Mike Zimmer was talking about the defense needing to stay disciplined and that they would work on that.
I haven't seen the Bucs game from tonight yet.
Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
He's always been talented. His rookie year numbers didn't happen by accident and not many guys have accomplished what he did his rookie year.
Then he had health issues horrible online and poor QB play.
Now he's healthy and the bell cow in no real time share which is pretty rare in today's NFL.
I have no reason to think if he stays healthy he won't be a strong RB1. He's been there before and I fully expect him to be back.
Then he had health issues horrible online and poor QB play.
Now he's healthy and the bell cow in no real time share which is pretty rare in today's NFL.
I have no reason to think if he stays healthy he won't be a strong RB1. He's been there before and I fully expect him to be back.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Stealthycat said:
He simply looks like a different player. Or the same player he was his rookie season. Who knows what happened? It was probably a combination of injury, abysmal offense, and lack of desire on Martin's part. Maybe he lost some desire because he was banged up and the offense was abysmal?Stealthycat said:
The long run was a great play by Martin. He waited for his blocking, got small along the sideline, broke a tackle, and then made the safety miss with a nice move to the inside.
We've seen it a million times with RB's. They have a nice long run to the 1, they're gassed, and then someone else ends up with the TD. What you should be noticing is Martin received the carry right after his run. He's obviously going to be the goalline back for an offense that looks improved.
If you drafted early and already had him before last night you're very happy. I imagine he goes in the first 4 rounds of drafts now.
Hard to say definitively that he looks like a different player, i.e. LeVeon Bell from year 1 to 2. And while saying his rookie year happened by accident would be taking it too far, we can say that his rookie year was a fluke. Most of his points came in two games and there have been several in depth articles which explain that his rate of big plays was not sustainable when compared to his middling rate of success per play.
My take on Doug has always been that he's not very talented, but he's very athletic. By that I mean, he's not going to make something out of nothing, but if you give him a hole, he's big (220+) and he's quick (agility score < 11.0). If you don't, he'll run into the backs of his offensive linemen or get tackled immediately. He won't be forcing a lot of missed tackles, but he'll hit a hole quickly if it is available.
If the offensive line is improved and Koetter does give him ample opportunities with screen passes (where he's pretty good), Doug should still be a value in the 5th round. Sims will steal third down snaps, but as long as Doug is getting his receptions on 1st and 2nd down, that's ok. Sims is not a threat to steal early down work as the guy is just a terrible runner. Rainey is good, but he seems entrenched as a backup. I think he's the guy to grab as the handcuff here if you have the roster space.
FWIW, PFF ranked the line pretty low overall, but did rank them 10th in run blocking last year. Maybe they looked good in the 2nd half while they were trailing, but I didn't see a lot of holes in the first half of the few Bucs games I watched last year.
My take on Doug has always been that he's not very talented, but he's very athletic. By that I mean, he's not going to make something out of nothing, but if you give him a hole, he's big (220+) and he's quick (agility score < 11.0). If you don't, he'll run into the backs of his offensive linemen or get tackled immediately. He won't be forcing a lot of missed tackles, but he'll hit a hole quickly if it is available.
If the offensive line is improved and Koetter does give him ample opportunities with screen passes (where he's pretty good), Doug should still be a value in the 5th round. Sims will steal third down snaps, but as long as Doug is getting his receptions on 1st and 2nd down, that's ok. Sims is not a threat to steal early down work as the guy is just a terrible runner. Rainey is good, but he seems entrenched as a backup. I think he's the guy to grab as the handcuff here if you have the roster space.
FWIW, PFF ranked the line pretty low overall, but did rank them 10th in run blocking last year. Maybe they looked good in the 2nd half while they were trailing, but I didn't see a lot of holes in the first half of the few Bucs games I watched last year.
Bucs' Doug Martin recapturing rookie-season form:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000515763/article/bucs-doug-martin-recapturing-rookieseason-form
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000515763/article/bucs-doug-martin-recapturing-rookieseason-form
bostonfred
Footballguy
After Martin's rookie year the big debate was how much to consider his monster game - 25 carries for 251 yards and 4 touchdowns. The words cherry pick were used a lot. I'm going to cherry pick a little differently, now that we have a slightly larger body of work.
In the 10 games where Doug Martin averaged 4.5 per carry, they fed him the rock, to the tune of 225 carries for 1403 yards and 8 tds. Very, very good.
The problem is the other 23 games, when he's had 345 carries for 1001 yards and 6 tds. That's terrible. 44 yards and .25 touchdowns per game. And it's not for lack of volume - he's still getting 15 carries per game during this stretch. Not quite the 22.5/game he gets when he's running well, but still a pace for 240 on the year.
So the question with Doug Martin isn't whether he capable of having a good game, like he was last night. It's how likely he is to do it. His rookie season he had seven good games in 16 games played. Since then, he's had three of 17.
At best, you're getting a lot of volatility. He had eight games last year alone with 83 carries for 230 yards. That's so, so bad. How do you put a guy like that in your starting lineup to get his 14/96 and 19/108 games?
What you really need is for him to raise his floor, not his ceiling. Seeing him break a tackle and turn a 3 yard run into 30 speaks more to his ceiling than his floor. Him getting hit early is more meaningful in that sense than him breaking the tackle. It's like a microcosm of his career - a play that usually stinks but turned out really good.
I'd take a flier late - he's still a young 3 down back in his contract year - but I'm not drafting him planning to put him in my starting lineup each week. Pass.
In the 10 games where Doug Martin averaged 4.5 per carry, they fed him the rock, to the tune of 225 carries for 1403 yards and 8 tds. Very, very good.
The problem is the other 23 games, when he's had 345 carries for 1001 yards and 6 tds. That's terrible. 44 yards and .25 touchdowns per game. And it's not for lack of volume - he's still getting 15 carries per game during this stretch. Not quite the 22.5/game he gets when he's running well, but still a pace for 240 on the year.
So the question with Doug Martin isn't whether he capable of having a good game, like he was last night. It's how likely he is to do it. His rookie season he had seven good games in 16 games played. Since then, he's had three of 17.
At best, you're getting a lot of volatility. He had eight games last year alone with 83 carries for 230 yards. That's so, so bad. How do you put a guy like that in your starting lineup to get his 14/96 and 19/108 games?
What you really need is for him to raise his floor, not his ceiling. Seeing him break a tackle and turn a 3 yard run into 30 speaks more to his ceiling than his floor. Him getting hit early is more meaningful in that sense than him breaking the tackle. It's like a microcosm of his career - a play that usually stinks but turned out really good.
I'd take a flier late - he's still a young 3 down back in his contract year - but I'm not drafting him planning to put him in my starting lineup each week. Pass.
Fantasysports1
Footballguy
I still don't trust him as my RB 2 but if the other guys like Ameer, Murray are taken, I might have to take him. Doug over Jonathan Stewart? I still like Spiller because I think he is not really injury prone and in PPR has good upside.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
exactly
pre-season hype .... don't buy it, don't get caught up in it .....
I don't think you know what you are talking about. It appears Doug will almost certainly be a two down back. Sims seems to have the 3rd down gig locked up. However, Koetter likes to throw the ball to the running back* (RBs averaged 112 rec/year during his three seasons in ATL) so Doug could easily still catch 50+ passes which would help ease the pain during his 19/60 rushing weeks.
*Funny that Dodds' projections seem to totally ignore the change in OC. He seems to be pretty much just looking at last year - only projecting 62 RB rec. Good thing I put little to no stock in those projections.
I like the Spiller suggestion above. His stock is going down while Doug's is going way up. In the last week or two Spiller has slipped one round while Doug has jumped up two rounds. Take what the draft gives you. But if you get Doug in the 5th, and maybe even the 4th, he'll probably still outperform his ADP if he stays healthy.
Shutout
Footballguy
I'm not buying it. I will disclaim that I have ALWAYS been down on Martin.
He was impressive last night but the Bengals were in a fog last night and I suspect they were really anticipating trying to focus on Winston's coming out party at home.
Yeah, the runs looked good but I simply don't think we are going to see that type of style all year and I don't expect the Bucs to be in the game position to allow that kind of play calling consistently.
He was impressive last night but the Bengals were in a fog last night and I suspect they were really anticipating trying to focus on Winston's coming out party at home.
Yeah, the runs looked good but I simply don't think we are going to see that type of style all year and I don't expect the Bucs to be in the game position to allow that kind of play calling consistently.
BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
but he looked fast ...he was breaking tackles and running hard...im on board until proven otherwise
Grahamburn
Footballguy
It's not impossible to turn a career around. Marshawn Lynch. Cedric Benson. Thomas Jones.
People have their biases and ignore players for whatever reasons. I bet a lot of posters here have been burned by Doug Martin in the last couple years. Take advantage of that bias while you can.
People have their biases and ignore players for whatever reasons. I bet a lot of posters here have been burned by Doug Martin in the last couple years. Take advantage of that bias while you can.
I'm right there with you. I was once ridiculed for saying Blount was a better RB than Martin (I still believe it to be true). However, I'd challenge you to consider situation here. The current OC lobbied for Martin to not be traded and has installed him as the unquestioned starter. This OC likes to throw the ball to the RB. The offensive line should be somewhat improved. The QB situation should at least be no worse than last year. And last but not least, who are you going to draft instead? I like the Spiller option listed above but no one else in the 5th round or later has a clearer path to touches than Martin. He could easily end up with 200 carries and 50 receptions... plus goal line carries. You don't have to be good to put up RB2 numbers with that kind of workload.
I've never drafted the guy, but sometimes the pendulum swings too far for me to ignore. This year I'm open to drafting him him, but my advice is: don't draft him on talent or hype. Draft him based on situation.
Koetter arguably didn't have a decent RB in his 3 years in ATL. His first year he had a broken down, stone handed Michael Turner. His second year he had an old, injured SJax, and his third year he still had SJax. The notable backups include Snelling (glorified FB), Quiz (plodding small RB), and Freeman (sub-par in every way). Yet, they still averaged 325 rushes and 112 receptions per year. In 2012, Turner had 223 rushes and 30 targets. 97 targets went to Snelling and Quiz. In 2013, SJax only played 12 games, but if you extrapolate them, you get 208 rushes and 65 targets - about what I'm expecting for Martin this year. In 2014, SJax played 15 games, but was on pace for 203 carries. That year the 134 targets were spread pretty evenly among five players, though (all five got between 14-40 targets). Also notable, the goal line back never had less than 6 TDs in a season.
althepostman
Footballguy
Disregarding everything else just watch his replays from this year and then go watch his replays from last years preseason. He is just a different runner. The explosiveness and acceleration, cutting, powering v through tackles... I think that injuries really did a number on him and he looks fully healthy now.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I didn't think I was going to like where you were going with this post, but the bolded is dead-bang on. A couple pre-season games isn't going to be enough to convince me the floor is high enough, no matter how impressive. Unless he's there a lot later than current ADP suggests he's an easy pass for me.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I never really get the volatility argument. There aren't any players who are locks for 100+ yards and a TD every week. The ones who are close go in the top 5 picks. If he's still going in the 5th round and mid to late 20's of RB's he's a value. I doubt he will go that late in drafts this weekend after yesterday.
If you drafted on 8/1 like I did you're super excited to get him for $6 in your $200 12 team auction with your league-mates cackling "overpay!" Now they're all trying to trade for him.
If you drafted on 8/1 like I did you're super excited to get him for $6 in your $200 12 team auction with your league-mates cackling "overpay!" Now they're all trying to trade for him.
This. Bostonfred wants Marshawn Lynch production at Joique Bell ADP. Either that or he thinks this is 2013 and Martin is coming off the board at 1.02.
According to FFcalc he's the RB23 today. Last year, RB23 in standard scoring finished with a combined 855 yards and 6 TDs. I know we don't want RB23 scoring for the guy we take as the 23rd RB, so last year's RB15 put up 1109/9 and RB17 put up 1207/5. I think those are easily attainable numbers for him given the system and his competition for touches.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Maybe you can help me with one of my nagging questions about doing this. I don't think that preseason strength of schedule (based on last year's finishes) are particularly useful. Now perhaps numberfire's "signature statistic" has a way to account for this, but what I really want to know is if it has been possible in the past to look at SoS matchups going into Week 1 and 2 with any reliability.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I try to use it more as a qualifier in breaking ties between close players.
It sounds like he's just taking rankings from last year, which can be somewhat enlightening, but it's probably much more difficult to truly pin down which defenses will be great. The Lions were #1 against the run last year? Well, they kind of had a big loss to their defensive line that Miami poached for theirs.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Here's a graph that a reddit user put together to compare 2014 pre-season to actual SOS: http://i.imgur.com/t9fPLlF.png
Here is a link to the thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/2qr1nn/looking_backwards_2014_strength_of_schedule/cn8q9lb
This is just comparing one season, but you can see that Oakland had the most difficult projected SOS and the most difficult actual SOS. Other teams were also very close from their perceived to actual. But then you had teams like Dallas that jumped 14 spots to the easiest actual schedule.
The problem with the perceived SOS for Tampa Bay this preseason is that it's underrating all of the NFCS teams due to how crappy the division was last year. I think you would have to assume that there is no improvement in the Atlanta, Carolina or New Orleans defenses, to assume that the Bucs will end up with the easiest schedule against the run. Their schedule does look like cake though. I think it is almost a guarantee that they end up with a top 5 easiest schedule. Not sure about #1 though.
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Thanks!
This shows that 13 of the perceived 16 easiest schedules actually finished the year with in the top 16 easiest schedule. It's certainly not the best metric to sort by but I will definitely throw this into the toolbox when comparing similar players.
I give very little weight to their signature statistic. I haven't looked closely in a while, but I recall it being pretty dumb. Basically, everyone knows and accepts that TDs vary wildly, yet they play a pretty huge role in their NEP statistic. Also, they use NEP/snap sometimes which pretty much just inflates that stat for players who play limited snaps but get targeted a lot when they do play. Martavis Bryant is a good example - the guy only played situationally but got targets and TDs when he was in the game so their statistic indicates he's going to be awesome. But if he plays every snap and his TDs come back to earth... well it's just not going to extrapolate like their "signature statistic" implies.tangfoot said:
Keep in mind that I believe (although I could've skimmed it incorrectly) the article was talking about SoS against the run rather than actual NFL SoS. The SoS against the run probably bounces around similarly, but I figured it was worth noting the difference.TwinTurbo said:
Quez
Footballguy
Looks great running tonight, but is looking terrible blocking. The Jameis INT, Martin missed the blitz. Another play he blocked Jameis instead of the defender. Missed on another block on a defender up the middle.
This is nothing new for Martin. He has always sucked at blocking, but if he can't protect Jameis he will end up being a 2 down back.
This is nothing new for Martin. He has always sucked at blocking, but if he can't protect Jameis he will end up being a 2 down back.
Fantasy Football Dilemmas: Doug Martin confident, dangerous and worth the risk
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/fantasy-football-today/25284651/fantasy-football-dilemmas-doug-martin-confident-dangerous-and-worth-the-risk
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/fantasy-football-today/25284651/fantasy-football-dilemmas-doug-martin-confident-dangerous-and-worth-the-risk
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Manster
Footballguy
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Pass on Martin and draft Sims instead, you'll be quite pleased.
