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RB Doug Martin, Free Agent (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Instead the board has mods who will give you a warning for a lighthearted "your mom" quip directed at a troll.
Here's what JV got right and is still right on: Martin is inconsistent and hard to trust. He has been boom or bust. He had some great games so far with horrible games mixed in. I was big on Martin this year, and he' has validated my thoughts by looking very good at times. However, he has been frustrating to own.
The fact is, is that he pretty much looks like 2012 version, if not better, but there are two things in his way: Smith and Sims. Game flow can play a factor for him, but if he fumbles, like he did, he will be in the doghouse. There is some sort of love fest with Sims. Maybe it's because this regime drafted him and/or Sims reminds Smith of Matt Forte who Smith misses.
At this point, I would say Martin will finish as a top 12 running back. However, he will be inconsistent due to Sims and Smith. We all just gotta hope Martin goes on a tear the rest of the way since he's had a couple of bad games in a row. I'd probably recommend trading him and a solid receiver for a great running back if you can not stomach his inconsistent ways.
The fact is, is that he pretty much looks like 2012 version, if not better, but there are two things in his way: Smith and Sims. Game flow can play a factor for him, but if he fumbles, like he did, he will be in the doghouse. There is some sort of love fest with Sims. Maybe it's because this regime drafted him and/or Sims reminds Smith of Matt Forte who Smith misses.
At this point, I would say Martin will finish as a top 12 running back. However, he will be inconsistent due to Sims and Smith. We all just gotta hope Martin goes on a tear the rest of the way since he's had a couple of bad games in a row. I'd probably recommend trading him and a solid receiver for a great running back if you can not stomach his inconsistent ways.
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I've got no dog in the Doug Martin fight, but it seems to me that, if a poster's position is that a player performs inconsistently, that's the kind of point that can only be illustrated after multiple weeks. You look and see if the player had high variance, or consistent production over that longer period.
I'd expect at some point one of the partisans would actually run those numbers...instead, I see a guy getting mocked because he waited for a few weeks of up and down data to come back and claim confirmation of his hypothesis. Less than pointless, those posts.
How does Martin's week to week variance compare to that of others in the top 20 RBs? Does that give him a significantly greater chance of having a bad (say, <10 FP) week than his competitors, like Ivory or Miller?
This is a debate more easily resolved with actual numbers, than with walls-of-quotes punctuated by critiques of the posters' board appearance rate.
I'd expect at some point one of the partisans would actually run those numbers...instead, I see a guy getting mocked because he waited for a few weeks of up and down data to come back and claim confirmation of his hypothesis. Less than pointless, those posts.
How does Martin's week to week variance compare to that of others in the top 20 RBs? Does that give him a significantly greater chance of having a bad (say, <10 FP) week than his competitors, like Ivory or Miller?
This is a debate more easily resolved with actual numbers, than with walls-of-quotes punctuated by critiques of the posters' board appearance rate.
Tau837
Footballguy
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I appreciate the honesty from a Martin owner. I agree that he could and probably finish the season cumulatively as a top 12 rb--but yes--his weekly production is sparatic. Using fftodays weekly total stats--here is how Martin has ranked week to week in regards to his running back totals:
Week 1: RB 41
Week 2: RB 19
Week 3: RB43
Week4: RB 5
Week5: RB1
Week 6: Bye
Week 7: RB12
Week 8: RB24
Week 9: RB 34
The notion that his total points up to this point this season put him at RB6 is misleading because of the injury landscape of RBS this season. While he ranks as RB6 on the season---he's only delivered RB6 or better numbers 2 out of 8 weeks this season. His cumulative numbers are deceiving relative to his weekly numbers. My entire point on him is that he's a tough guy to start because you can never get a grasp of what to expect from him--and his weekly rankings paint a picture of that variance. If you were to average his weekly production ratings up this point--that would put him at Rb 22.38
Cumalitive stats=RB6
Avg weekly RB ranking: RB 22.38
Basically speaking--cumulatively he's been an RB1-----but if you look at him week to week--his average weekly ranking would put him at RB 22.38 (an RB3/flex in a 10 team league, and barely an RB2 in a 12 teamer).
Again, your selective application of your logic and facts weakens your argument.
If you were to apply this to all of the current top-12 RBs, only 1 would be a RB1 in a 12 team league based on your avg weekly RB ranking.
(RB1) Freeman-avg weekly RB ranking=10.1
(RB2) Ingram-avg weekly RB ranking=14.3
(RB3) Miller-avg weekly RB ranking=22.5
(RB4) Peterson-avg weekly RB ranking=16.9
(RB5) Ivory-avg weekly RB ranking=16.7
(RB6) Martin-avg weekly RB ranking=22.4
(RB7) Woodhead-avg weekly RB ranking=20.2
(RB8) Gore-avg weekly RB ranking=23.9
(RB9) Forte-avg weekly RB ranking=14.6
(RB10) Gurley-avg weekly RB ranking=18.2
(RB11) Lewis-avg weekly RB ranking=15.7
(RB12) D Murray-avg weekly RB ranking=17.9
So what's your point exactly, that Martin is pretty much in the same boat as most other RBs?
bill bates hits hard
Footballguy
Can you guys stop fighting in here? It's incredibly selfish and shows what kind of person you are to subject everybody to this. Let's talk about the hamster.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
He doesn't like that nickname.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
If you look at Martin---the difference between his cumulative total ranking and his average weekly ranking is over 16 spots. The only player on that list that comes even close to that kind of difference between average weekly ranking and his season total is Gore. If you take into account that Gore basically gave away 2-3 touchdowns on the season--even he wouldn't be that close to Martin. The point is that the Martins week to week production relative to the top RBS varies greater than lots of the people on your list. His season totals don't reflect that. That was the only point I was making. I honestly don't understand the hostility towards an opinion. Seriously man-this is a fantasy football forum and it's disgusting how somebody with a counter point needs an army of people and an idiot hype man (you know who you are) mud-slinging him for no reason. I thought this was a forum where we disuss all opinions on Martin. If opposing opinions aren't welcome--then my bad. Regardless of if I end up wrong or right--the attitude of the Martin supporters in this thread has been nothing short of shameful.Edit---I just noticed that Miller also has that variance--so my apologies for missing him
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But you aren't willing to discuss any contrary opinions on Martin. People discussing the change in offense, OC, teammates, etc were (according to you) "making excuses." You discounted those opinions. Then, even when you pretend to acknowledge other facts, you discount them.
So, you don't apply your logic to other RBs, then when you do, you say their variance isn't as big as Martins (let's ignore ADP, Ivory, Woodhead having a variance of 13-that's "not even close" to Martin's), or saying "if you gave him a couple of TDs" (Gore), he wouldn't be close. Let's ignore the fact that there were a couple of occasions where Martin got stopped at the 1 & could have scored, or the long runs he had called back by penalty.
You want to act like you're the beacon of honest, unbiased discussion in this thread, when in reality, you are so tied to your flawed logic that you are guilty of the exact "crimes" you are accusing others of.
Bottom line-you were/are wrong about Martin. He is a RB1 right now, and barring injury, will be AT LEAST a RB2 this year. His variance is much the same as all the other top RBs. Your basis (that his last two years production outweighs his situation & changes around him) was wrong.
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jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
You can try to paint me however you want. The only thing that is obvious here is that no matter what I say--you and your little "hype men" will disagree. Just look at your own data. Most fantasy football leagues are not rotisserie style like baseball is. In fantasy baseball cumulative stats mean everything as it's based on season totals. In a head to head format--weekly consistency and weekly production means something. Saying that Martin is the sixth best RB in football right now is only partially true. It's true in regards to cumulative season totals. On a week to week basis--amongst the pool of RB's in the league--on average 21 random running backs outperformed him. Yes--even stud rb1's are not going to be RB12 or better week to week--but what weekly rankings can show is how "trustworthy" ones season totals are versus what their week to week production has been. If you have an RB that is ranked really great cumulatively as well as ranked as an RB12 on week to week average--you have an elite stud---ie Freeman. Look at your own list (just take a single second from mocking me--because this is a discussion forum--this is not a fight between you and I--and you are really trying to make it out to be one). Your own data shows that amongst those running backs Martin is basically tied for second worse in regards to where his average weekly ranking is. If you look at his cumulative ranking versus his average weekly ranking--he has the second greatest disparity. I've never said that Martin is not capable of big games. I've never said he's total garbage. I've said that he's a hard guy to own/start because he tends to have a really low floor and a really high ceiling. Your own numbers support that compared to the rest of the guys your list that this is absolutely true. That's all I'm saying--so can you please just turn the hostility off for a split second and comment on that in a civil manner.
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Why do you have such a persecution complex?jvdesigns2002 said:
With regards to the bolded, please show me one example of me mocking you, trying to "fight" with you, or being hostile. You won't be able to do it, because I haven't done so. But you get so defensive when someone disagrees with you (which is exactly what you are railing about) that you are imagining these things.
As for the rest of your post, he isn't a hard guy to own/start. You drafted him to be a RB2; you start him. Some weeks he performs like a RB2, some weeks he performs like a RB1, some weeks he performs worse. That's the nature of those types of RBs. According to MFL's ADP (real drafts), these are the 4 RBs drafted right before him, and the 4 RBs drafted right after him: Abdullah, Ellington, Stewart, Foster, MARTIN, Yeldon, Blount, Ivory, Spiller. Of those 8, the only 1 I can say I'd prefer is Ivory, maybe Blount (and Ivory's health and NE's RB usage are both concerns).
You want to compare him to 1st/2nd round picks, when he was selected in the 5th round. Guess what, Julio Jones is doing better than Brandon Marshall, but given the fact that Marshall commanded a 5th round pick versus a 2nd for Jones, I'm happy with his production.
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SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Classic solid RB2, won't absolutely kill you by disappearing but can tally a high ceiling to win the day, what's not to like. Sims is not taking over.
Steeler
Footballguy
Can you guys take this bickering to PMs or something. It's hard to wade through the silliness to find any actual news.
I didn't see the game so I'm not sure how it played out. Early in the year I thought Doug would be hurt by certain game scripts (falling behind) but there were several games where they seemed to stick with Doug no matter the score. Did that change last week? Or was his usage pretty much the same as before the bye and he just had a bad game?
I didn't see the game so I'm not sure how it played out. Early in the year I thought Doug would be hurt by certain game scripts (falling behind) but there were several games where they seemed to stick with Doug no matter the score. Did that change last week? Or was his usage pretty much the same as before the bye and he just had a bad game?
shadyridr
Footballguy
He fumbled and dropped a pass. So they went to Sims. Who promptly fumbled himself. The weather as miserable. Rainy most of the game This regime has been trying to make Sims be a thing all along. But Martin is too good.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
All of this plus the Giants dominated the ball and Evans kept dropping passes on 3rd down which would have extended drives. Thus, giving Doug more opportunities for carries.
Swing 51
Footballguy
Yes. I suspect in most leagues scoring system Dallas is near the worst among giving up points to the RB. And early reports have Sean Lee doubtful for Sunday.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
The only thing I really don't like about Doug Martin is that week 15 matchup with the Rams.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
He should bounce back against Dallas. A decent matchup for him--a week after he was benched. I expect somewhere 100-120 yards from scrimmage range with a td. I've always said he has a low floor and a high ceiling--and my expecations are that he has a "high ceiling" week ths week.
timbrah_ho
Footballguy
Has this been asked yet -- Martin or Miller ROS?
Quez
Footballguy
I'm not sure why they went away from using Martin early in the game. He was having success, then they started using Sims. At one point I thought maybe he was hurt or something. Then he came back and ran well in the 2nd half. Maybe it's a strategy thing, or keeping him fresh??? Shicano had no problem running him 30x.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
My only gripe is them not getting Sims and Martin on the field at the same time more often. They should have schemed that in to the gameplan by now. Jameis could use a few more targets in the passing game.
They've been giving Sims every 3rd series and most of the two minute situations all season.
The bootleg for Winston was the perfect play call. It's the same thing they should have run against Washington.
shadyridr
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Great day already for Martin with 11 rushing attempts for 174 yards and not even to half time yet against the Eagles.
How do you get this many yards and not score?
How do you get this many yards and not score?
The General
Footballguy
Winston has a personal vendetta to make sure Doug doesn't get a TD ever.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
240 rushing yards now with 9 minutes to go.
Underachievers
Footballguy
Great sell high.
he's been a great sell high all season.
pantherclub
Footballguy
dude what?
shadyridr
Footballguy
I think he's poking fun at that dude that disappeared for weeks until last week and probably will disappear again. At least I hope.
Ned Ryerson
Footballguy
thecardiackid
Footballguy
you gotta think he's due for a 80 yd and 3 td type of game. and tb's schedule looks very nice coming up.
timbrah_ho
Footballguy
No TD? He's obviously droppable in redraft
Andrew74
Footballguy
"I don't think Doug came into the season thinking, hey, he wasn't wanted around here. It's the complete opposite of that." Love is delusional, trying to make himself feel better. He didn't want Martin, the OC had to stand up for him to keep him.
TB has a love affair with Sims, but it Martin stayed would it be bad? I've been waiting for him to leave but if Winston can become a consistently good QB and with the weapons they have on the offense, it might not be terrible.
mr roboto
Footballguy
Can you explain why? I bought him low this offseason in dynasty and have been very happy with his performance.
Monty Burns
Footballguy
because he might get a better opportunity with a different/better team is the thinking of some
