So I was looking around for any articles that may have been written about Elliot and his decline due to workload.
I haven't found much. If any of you have please share that here.
I did come across
this article talking about Elliots workload in 2018 which brings up the 400 touches in a season threshold as a possible sign of a player getting the ball too much.
Zeke's 381 touches in 2018 was a career high, and he has topped 1,000 career touches through his first three seasons.
Zeke averaged 25.6 touches per game in 2018. He played in 15 games, but sat out the regular-season finale in order to rest for the playoffs. If Zeke had played in the 16th and final game of the 2018 regular season and taken his normal workload, he would have topped 400 touches.
In NFL history, a player has reached 400 or more touches in a single season 43 times. Three different Cowboys have reached 400-plus touches in a season: Murray in 2014; Emmitt Smith four times (1991, 1992, 1994, 1995); and Herschel Walker (414 touches in 1988).
While there is no question that Zeke has carried more than his fair share of the load through his first three NFL seasons, the numbers show that Zeke's load has not been as heavy as those carried by running backs of previous NFL generations.
Here's the NFL's top-10 list - most touches (single season):
1. James Wilder, Tampa Bay: 492 (1984)
2. Larry Johnson, Kansas City: 457 (2006)3. Eddie George, Tennessee: 453 (2000)4. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego: 451 (2002)5. Edgerrin James, Indianapolis: 450 (2000)6. DeMarco Murray, Dallas: 449 (2014)7. Marcus Allen, Oakland 447: (1985)8. Ricky Williams, Miami 442: (2003)9. Eric Dickerson, Los Angeles Rams: 441 (1983)10. Emmitt Smith, Dallas 439: (1995)
This caused me to wonder what happened to the players following the 400 touch season. First we need a sample size. I figured lets look at the 43 times a RB has had 400 or more touches and what the careers for those players was like, since Elliot was on pace for that many in 2018.
James Wilder had a 2nd 400 touch season after his record setting 492 touches in 1984. He never played 16 games again after those two seasons. But he also was 28 years old by then. He didnt touch the ball nearly that much in his first 3 seasons in the league. So it wasn't a large total workload in his career causing him to wear down.
Larry Johnson is kind of weird because he had to play 2nd fiddle to Priest Holmes his first couple years in the league. Similar to Wilder he had two very high touch seasons then didn't see that volume again in his career, but he was also 28 years old by then.
Eddie George had 352 touches or more every season. His yards per touch declines after his high touch season in 2000 but he continues having high volume until he is 30 before falling off.
LaDainian Tomlinson starts his career with 398 touches and continues to have near 400 every season until he is age 29 where performance drops and then opportunity drops at age 30.
Edgerrin James starts his career with 431 touches then 450 touches his 2nd season. He has a knee injury and only plays 6 games his 3rd season He has 6 more seasons with over 300 touches including a 400 touch season at age 27 and two more good seasons after that. His performance falls off his age 30 season.
DeMarco Murray split time his first two seasons before a 270 touch then 449 touches at age 26. He goes to the Eagles as a free agent and only has 237 touches at age 27. He goes to the Titans and has 346 touches at age 28 Then 223 touches splitting with Henry at age 29 before he retires.
Marcus Allen Allens career is kind of weird because he splits carries with Bo Jackson and others along the way. We see the age curve afffecting his performance after he turns 28 but he is able to revive his career at age 33 and does similarly well to his earlier seasons until age 36.
Ricky Williams he had 3 high volume seasons from age 24 to 26 before taking a year long vacation to avoid suspension. He comes back for a year but then does get suspended for the 2006 season. Revives his career at age 31 and has a 276 touch season at age 32. Maybe those seasons off helped Williams play well later on in his career? He does do it past the usual age threshold.
Eric Dickerson starts his career with a 441 touch season. He has 3 more 400 touch seasons in his career and he does not decline in performance until his age 30 season.
Emmitt Smith the energizer bunny RB. You do see decline in Smiths performance from age starting at 31 years old but he keeps on chooglin until he is 35.
Jamal Anderson Anderson only has one 400 touch season and he had a serious injury following that year. His career is one of the example people would point to as far as the 400 touch threshold being a risk. He still has a good year following the injury at age 28.
Steven Jackson only had one season over 400 touches. Is a steady performer for most of his career though before performance declining at age 30.
Gerald Riggs has 3 high volume seasons age 24 to 26 Opportunities decline after that point.
Barry Foster has one 400 touch season. He splits time with other RBs the next two years and does not play after age 26.
Walter Payton has his first 400 touch season at age 25 has another one at age 30. Performance declines at age 33 but they were also splitting carries between him and Neal Anderson his last season in the league.
Duece McCallister has a 400 touch season at age 25 (I am seeing this a lot) Has a decent season following that but gets injured at age 27 but comes back for a decent year at age 28. Gets injured again and fades out after that.
Terrell Davis Similar to Riggs he has 3 high volume seasons in a row age 24 to 26. Gets injured following that at age 27 and tries to come back but is just never the same again.
Hershel Walker He only had 400 touches once at age 26. He started his career with the USFL and does not enter the NFL until age 24.
Jamal Lewis only has one 400 touch season but he is high volume his whole career before declining at age 30.
Curtis Martin First 400 touch season at age 25 then another one at age 31 before we see a decline in his performance at age 32. He has 412 touches 3 different times.
Tiki Barber Has his first 400 touch season at age 30. He has 3 seasons in a row of 2k total yards from scrimmage before retiring.
Marshall Faulk He only has one 400 touch season at age 25. He misses games later on in his career but peformance doesn't really decline until his age 32 season.
Chris Johnson Only has one 400 touch season at age 24. Has a 380 touch season following that. We see decline in his opportunity at age 29 and he is pretty much done by age 31.
LeVeon Bell has a 400 touch season at age 25. Misses the following year with contract dispute. Then sent to the Jets where he was not as good.
Ahman Green has a 400 touch season at age 26 Has a good season following this then an injured year then another good year at age 29 before he declines.
Ricky Watters has one 400 touch season at age 27 but he had 399 the year before at age 26. He has a strong career up until his age 32 season.
Christian McCaffrey has one 400 touch season at age 23. He got injured this year and so adds weight to the decline in performance after a 400 touch season idea.
Thurman Thomas has one 400 touch season. Many good years we start to see decline at age 31.
Thats all of them I think. Of course some guys who are close but not quite hitting 400. There are only 28 RB to ever have 400 touches. The other 15 times it has happened was because these players were able to do that multiple times.
i am going to look at this further but the main thing I see happening here is a RB earns huge workload early on in their careers. So focusing on younger RB is a good way to try to put yourself in position for such a monster season.
Almost every player on this list has had good long careers and they far exceed the 1800 rushing attempts that has been talked about as a point where these players decline. I will look at that for this sample later on. Maybe I find some other number where the players decline in performance. I don't know.
For the most part these RB are having long careers as well though if it doesn't get shortened by an injury as I think is the case for TD Jamal Anderson.
When Elliot was on pace for 400 touches it was his age 23 season. He will be 26 next July.
I was just looking at total yards from scrimmage and there are 42 times that a RB has had 2k combined yards in the sample.
Elliot has one of them in 2018. The other RB who had a 2k season at age 23 were Christian McCaffrey, Steven Jackson, Eric Dickerson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Emmitt Smith.
Edge did it at 21 and 22 years old.