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RB Ezekiel Elliott, LAC (4 Viewers)
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candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
What do you guys think his value in dynasty? The value chart has him at 21 points here on FBG. In terms of draft capital, what would you give up or accept? I am a new Dynasty team owner, I just purchased one on FFPC and I am looking to possibly move Zeke in a combo trade.
Possibility - Zeke, Locket and Pittman Jr for Singletary, St Brown and 2.06/2.10 round picks. The chart has me at about -5 points here on FBG. An added 2.11 pick, which is possible, would get me pretty even in terms of points, but it seems a bit much, thoughts?
Like I said, I am new at this and just wondering about the thoughts of the crowd, thanks in advance.
Possibility - Zeke, Locket and Pittman Jr for Singletary, St Brown and 2.06/2.10 round picks. The chart has me at about -5 points here on FBG. An added 2.11 pick, which is possible, would get me pretty even in terms of points, but it seems a bit much, thoughts?
Like I said, I am new at this and just wondering about the thoughts of the crowd, thanks in advance.
FairWarning
Footballguy
I don’t play dynasty but Elliott will break your heart. I want young fresh legs for my RB. I was always high on St Brown and they will be losing a lot.
candian fantasy guy said:
Dynasty is all about getting as many top-end players as possible. Dynasty winning teams are usually more stacked than season long winning teams since there is more time to build great teams.
With that being said, I doubt Singletary, ASB, or whatever is available at 2.06/2.10 will be championship level players - Dont fall victim to recency bias re: ASB and Singletary. Zeke and Lockett were players you could win championships with, and Pittman could become one with a better QB. If you're trying to rebuild and get younger I'd look to move Zeke and Lockett for a 2022/2023 1st (maybe more depending on where the first is).
jm192
Footballguy
candian fantasy guy said:
The Zeke value train is off the tracks and heading for a cliff.
I think this is one where you want to sell even if you have to take a loss on value.
I don't like Singletary or St Brown a ton. Certainly not enough to give Locket and Pittman in addition to Zeke to get them.
I would shop Zeke a little bit higher initially. Sometimes people fall in love with names in fantasy sports. And someone close to winning a title may give more than expect for Ezekiel Elliott.
If you can't get any bigger bites, I would aim for someone like Batemen and the 2nds, Toney and the 2nd's. Maybe Jeudy/Aiyuk.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
Thanks guys, I was just offered the 1.09 for Zeke. I might hit accept on this one , thoughts?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
foxco
Footballguy
jm192
Footballguy
This.
If they're acquiring Zeke to try to contend now, they may think not having to pay until 2023 is a better deal for them. Or may just not mind giving that price for Zeke. Definitely worth countering.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
We countered a few offers back and forth, I ended up accepting Zeke for 1.09, Rex Burkhead and K Vaughn.
Thanks for the chatter
Thanks for the chatter
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
joey
Footballguy
Not my trade offer but…
I take any human being who plays football who has a pulse at 1.9
as a Zeke owner in 1 league, I’d probably take any 1st rounder even in this “weaker” 2022 rookie class.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I wish the Zeke owner in my league were as reasonable. Now I’m rebuilding but when I was a player away last year he was wholly unreasonable in his demands.Not my trade offer but…
I take any human being who plays football who has a pulse at 1.9
as a Zeke owner in 1 league, I’d probably take any 1st rounder even in this “weaker” 2022 rookie class.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
Best player available or possibly use it to get another player, dunno. I’m just glad to have had moved him for anything reasonable.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
joey
Footballguy
Yeah, if you’re 1 player away and Zeke is performing mid-season, you send a first. But if you’re middling, building up, or total tear down/rebuild, I think you take any first for him and run.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
This is why Dallas won't be winning anything anytime soon. I'm happy to watch them under achieve year after year.
rockaction
Footballguy
Whatever the case may be for more playing time for the more dynamic open-field runner in Pollard, their inside the twenty stats aren't even remotely close by efficiency standards. I don't have the link, but it was glaring. Expect to see plenty of Zeke in scoring opportunities next year. It'll be the same thing as this year. He'll be healthier, too.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Even though I think Zeke is on the decline, this statement is more of a general statement about running backs. It is such a detriment to fantasy football how quickly RBs fall off the cliff. You can never get comfortable with your RB room. If I had a son in high school and he was a great football player, I would steer him to another position. I'm starting to believe that it is better to construct your fantasy football team (start 1qb leagues) around stud wide receivers, tight ends, & qbs, and roster middle tier RBs. It's a lot cheaper to replenish them.
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I tend to agree, except for the 1 non-PPR, non-TE required dynasty league I am in (been around for 20+ years so the setup is more nostalgic than adjusting for the times), where most years the owner with the best RB group wins and WRs have limited value.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I don't think he's done and I don't think his backup is a starter. I think his backup is the best in football and a fabulous complimentary back. (Not using his name helps illustrate)
I think the end of the road is now seen for Zeke and that stirs the pot. How long does he have as an elite back?
The Cowboys should draft a back this year or next depending on where they fall and how much they love a prospect.
It's not a rush at all just...it's coming.
In early underdogs Zeke is falling so he's gonna be a favorite if that keeps up.
If you don't watch the games you don't see hard earned yards versus pretty runs for 8-10 yards. I'd pull Zeke some and give him some rest to prolong his elite window. 1200 seems reasonable.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cowboys unload his backup if a good trade comes up. If some team incorrectly thinks he's a starter and defies the RB market, they need to take that. Don't forget RBs in the draft are easy to get and undervalued after round one.
The Boys have to be in a push for a Super; tweak things and add. They have some key free agents but they're definitely in win now mode before a window closes
I think the end of the road is now seen for Zeke and that stirs the pot. How long does he have as an elite back?
The Cowboys should draft a back this year or next depending on where they fall and how much they love a prospect.
It's not a rush at all just...it's coming.
In early underdogs Zeke is falling so he's gonna be a favorite if that keeps up.
If you don't watch the games you don't see hard earned yards versus pretty runs for 8-10 yards. I'd pull Zeke some and give him some rest to prolong his elite window. 1200 seems reasonable.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cowboys unload his backup if a good trade comes up. If some team incorrectly thinks he's a starter and defies the RB market, they need to take that. Don't forget RBs in the draft are easy to get and undervalued after round one.
The Boys have to be in a push for a Super; tweak things and add. They have some key free agents but they're definitely in win now mode before a window closes
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I am kind of shocked by how down people are on Elliot after he finished as RB 7 this season in PPR.
While EE will be 27 years old in the 2022 season and his best days are most likely behind him he still could provide another top 12 season this year and possibly in 2023 as well.
Before last season people were questioning if Elliot would be a top 12 RB and if he was washed up. Well he was a top 12 RB so no he wasn't.
While the nay sayers will eventually be right because rust never sleeps, it still seems premature to be expecting a decline.
While EE will be 27 years old in the 2022 season and his best days are most likely behind him he still could provide another top 12 season this year and possibly in 2023 as well.
Before last season people were questioning if Elliot would be a top 12 RB and if he was washed up. Well he was a top 12 RB so no he wasn't.
While the nay sayers will eventually be right because rust never sleeps, it still seems premature to be expecting a decline.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I agree with what you are saying, but as they say in dynasty circles, it is better to trade a year too early than a year too late. From what I've read that window is shrinking fast, if not barely open. Owners won't be able to get great value for him at this point, but could get good value I suppose. Otherwise, it's probably better for Zeke owners to ride him until the wheels fall off.
rockaction
Footballguy
If you view it from total points it's a more compelling case but I always viewed it more on points per game and then adjust a player up or down based on durability.
So for me Zeke has not been a top 12 RB since he was 24 back in 2019 but has been a high end RB2. Seems to me to have settled into being a really durable 15 PPG type of RB, which again is a really high end RB2 most years and he should get a bump for durability.
He's going around RB18-19 in FFPC drafts so I can get behind a case he's a solid redraft value.
But I absolutely think he's not nearly as explosive as he once was and 27 is basically ancient for RB's. In PPR the only RB older then 27 to finish top 20 last year was Henry. If you want to use total points you had Henry at 17 and Gordon at 20.
These RB's need to be sold when they are 25-26.
Zeke should be good for another 15'ish PPG season but then Dallas can move on from his contract and likely will. At which point he'll be a hard used 28 year old RB not assured of volume.
His window is short IMO and he's not a league winner. If I had a contending team with RB need I might pay like something in 10-12 range for him but right now looking at my teams I don't have one I'd actually do that at this time because I feel like I can only count on one year. If I I was shopping for a similar aged RB2 I'd rather buy someone like Kareem Hunt for less, a RB who has a lot more tread on his tires, looks more explosive to me right now and even in a split role has been fairly close to Zeke's fantasy production the last two years(to be fair not nearly as durable)
zamboni
Footballguy
As others have said, I think he can be valuable in redraft leagues because he's going to get the volume with his contract. I think it was JJ Zachiariason who wrote that once a RB hits 1500 carries, that's a big historical red flag.
efactor
Footballguy
Agree
While no longer a top 5 pick, going in the mid 3rd round in redraft is crazy. Was doing well until he got hurt last year and while he was supposed to miss time, he played through it. Can't question his toughness
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Insoxicated
IMO this is the crux....
He was a different back after the PCL injury :
Do you believe the injury was the primary reason for the drop in production?
He's being reported as "Completely healthy":
Do you believe he's back to 100%?
IF the answer to yes is both in your mind, then he presents solid value this year... barring a sizable shift in workload to Pollard.
Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Zeke is a league winner in the 4th round. Problem is, he will rise prior to most drafts in late August
Bayless points out that Zeke's rushing yards per game have gone down every year. It's kinda inevitable when you look at his carries per game, isn't it? It's pretty hard to average 100 yards a game on 13 carries.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Before i click on the link is that Skip Bayless?
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
I'm not sure on that (him rising in drafts come August). He's got that 'aging RB' stigma now along with a legitimate workload threat in Pollard, two things I don't think gets resolved between now and then in Zeke's favor in terms of him rising up draft boards.
But I agree...I'm a buyer. 100 YPG and 1 TD/game thru 5 games in 2021 prior to the knee holding him back suggests a healthy Zeke is still high level.
RB6 despite the things you mentioned. RB6. And he was hurt most of the year. I am all in if you grab an elite WR or Kelce/Andrews early
The Kerminator
Footballguy
I guess the question I have is does the 'aging RB' lead to the knee holding him back?
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Zeke feels like he's been in the league forever. He turns 27 next month. 3 days older than Kamara. 1.5 years younger than Derrick Henry. 1 year older than CMC and Joe Mixon. 3 (of 4) missed time with injuries last year (while Zeke played thru his).
I definitely understand the workload vs age argument, but I get the sense that Zeke is being discounted on aging/workload factors significantly more than his brethren.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Nailed it.
Zeke, to my recollection, has only miss 2 games to injury and 6 to that suspension awhile back. Do I think Zeke will ever have best RB upside? No, but he's a pretty reliable back with top 5 RB upside.
The Pollard effect isn't really a thing to me because I don't see Pollard ever being more than what he is, unless he is worked into the slot. I think Zeke is being underdrafted right now and I don't consider it a knock that he plays through many of his injuries.
But I do think Pollard being there and taking some work load is a benefit to the in season longevity of Zeke. So while many use Pollard as a reason to not draft Zeke he is actually a reason I like Zeke to have a high floor for the season even if it caps his top end upside. But since Zeke isn't being drafted as a top end RB anymore that high floor as your RB2 is quite valuable.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Absolutely agree! Just give me the guy who has a clear path to the goal line carries with proven record to handle 275+ carries and is almost guaranteed 1,000 yards. They're going to feed Zeke and they're in a weak division. Guy has a top 5 upside and a top 15 floor.
Right now everyone who is pro-Zeke or wants a reason to draft him has taken to citing or thinking of what he was before his knee injury. In a sense if not prorating those numbers at least seemingly assuming he's that level of player all season, if not for the knee injury. In other words that first 5 game guy is the real Zeke you get all year if he's healthy.
What I find myself questioning might be a flaw in that thought process is that it seems to give Elliot, obviously an older RB with a ton of use, a pass on age/wear and tear contributing to having naturally slow him down as the year progressed, healthy or not. As in maybe expecting early season Zeke to look that effective later in the season is expecting to much, assuming he's used heavily as those first 5 weeks when he's over a 70% snap count which is not that common these days.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
I've been getting him in the RB 20-24 area. I don't think there is too much thinking at that range. If he plays a full season he easily is a top 20-25 RB. In that range the only real question is do you like Ken Walker, Miles Sanders, Elijah Mitchell or Damien Harris better I suppose. I personally would rather roll with Zeke there.menobrown said:
