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RB Giovani Bernard, TB (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Kleck
- Start date
Boom reported that Hill was in a sling this morning. Hard to believe that Hill is training in full if this is the case.
Regardless, this seems like a Gio game. IF Hill is healthy they'll try and slow down the game, but I'm guessing they fail here and fall behind. This would open the door for Gio in catchup mode.
If Hill isn't healthy, Gio is a RB2 for sure.
Regardless, this seems like a Gio game. IF Hill is healthy they'll try and slow down the game, but I'm guessing they fail here and fall behind. This would open the door for Gio in catchup mode.
If Hill isn't healthy, Gio is a RB2 for sure.
CentralPA
Footballguy
they will most likely be playing catch up so you're right, Gio, regardless of Hill's status, should still be a RB2 most likely in PPR.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
In PPR you have to play Gio this week. New England gives up a lot of receptions to RBs. Even if Hill plays chances are he's not going to be fully healthy and Gio will get more carries.
I agree with a previous poster, I'm not sure I'll ever draft him again unless something changes. This is a lot like the Deangelo/Jstew situation in Carolina years back- good luck figuring it out until one ultimately leaves or gets hurt. Gio can be "the guy," but Hill just doesn't have the health history or even the frame to be "the guy." Of course that's me with my rose colored glasses on sitting at my desk at work saying this...
I agree with a previous poster, I'm not sure I'll ever draft him again unless something changes. This is a lot like the Deangelo/Jstew situation in Carolina years back- good luck figuring it out until one ultimately leaves or gets hurt. Gio can be "the guy," but Hill just doesn't have the health history or even the frame to be "the guy." Of course that's me with my rose colored glasses on sitting at my desk at work saying this...
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
What I'd be more curious about is if he took contact during practice. You can run with a football holding your arm in the "sling position" and not really do anything to damage your shoulder. Taking a hit, block, going to the ground is a different story.
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
Possible scenario:
It was sore and he had been instructed to wear a sling. Saw the trainers this morning, they tried it out, found that practicing wouldn't damage it further, and he put on the pads. It's probably a pain thing here.
Bengals homer take...
I wouldn't be surprised at all if Gio is ready to go Week 1. By all accounts, his recovery is going extremely well and is ahead of schedule. It's been compared to the first time Leon Hall tore his achilles by some Bengals insiders/media. Hall too had a surprisingly fast/successful recovery and was ready Week 1. Doesn't seem like PUP is even being talked about, so even worst case scenario seems to be that they ease him back in through September.
I think the pecking order is going to be Mixon, Gio and then Hill. If Mixon is what the Bengals seem to think he is, I wouldn't even be shocked if Hill ends up being a healthy scratch many weeks due to not playing special teams (#4 back Cedric Peerman is the ST captain). They'll keep Hill around for the final year of his deal as injury insurance, but I don't think he's much in their plans.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if Gio is ready to go Week 1. By all accounts, his recovery is going extremely well and is ahead of schedule. It's been compared to the first time Leon Hall tore his achilles by some Bengals insiders/media. Hall too had a surprisingly fast/successful recovery and was ready Week 1. Doesn't seem like PUP is even being talked about, so even worst case scenario seems to be that they ease him back in through September.
I think the pecking order is going to be Mixon, Gio and then Hill. If Mixon is what the Bengals seem to think he is, I wouldn't even be shocked if Hill ends up being a healthy scratch many weeks due to not playing special teams (#4 back Cedric Peerman is the ST captain). They'll keep Hill around for the final year of his deal as injury insurance, but I don't think he's much in their plans.
Appreciate the homer take and agree that Gio will be ready to go week one.
I am a man on an island here with this opinion however and that opinion is Hill will enter camp being afforded every chance to retain his role. I know, you don't agree, other people I've had this discussion with don't agree with me which is why again I say I am a man on an island with this opinion.
I got a few reasons I feel this way. Marvin has traditionally taken rookies along slowly when he's had the chance, this is a draft and develop franchise. He's also shown a strong loyalty if you will to veterans. I recall Gio's rookie season when he was the top RB taken in the draft and they gave BGE a heavy workload despite him stinking. I think we even saw this last season with a struggling Hill not ceding work to Burkhead until he was able to go. I know they were not pleased with Hill last season or really the last two seasons but I think he'll be given a chance in camp to retain his role, a chance anyway.
I also think that the off the field stuff will come into play with Mixon just a little. I just feel like they are going to take him along slowly next year and allow him to get acclimated before putting to much on his plate. This of course is pure speculation on my part and if all he ever did was that one instance he's not got "off the field" issues but when I hear people talk about having a plan in place for him, as Marvin did, I'm not sure if he meant on or off the field but in general I just feel like I'm picking up a sense they understand one mess up by him will get blown out of proportion and they are handling him a little extra careful. I just think they want to make sure he's in a good place and well acclimated before putting to much on him early.
Long term I don't think Hill is in their plans in the least but to me I'm not so quick to assume Mixon is going to be a Bell or DJ type workhorse because as we've seen the last few years this team likes to use a RBBC, even before Hill/Gio. Mixon has the skill set for it to be sure, just not sure that is how this current staff will use him so I think Gio has a shot of retaining his normal role this year and beyond. If they do opt to make Mixon a Bell type RB it brings into question if Gio will be worth the $3.1m and $3.4m he is due in 2018 and 2019.
None of what I'm saying is meant to knock Mixon. I had him as my 4th rated rookie in drafts and on pure talent I had him as the top player and I did draft him some leagues but my expectation for 2017 is tempered and consequently I think Gio will still have use as that solid but unspectacular 11-13 PPG PPR RB3 type.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I agree they go slowly with Mixon. There's little reason to rush him in and depending on his pass pro that might even be a bad idea. Most rookie hit some sort of wall and Lewis is thinking playoffs so he's going to want to pace things. He's not threatened with job security at this point so he may as well make sure the rookie can handle it. Even if he does get early reps he'll end up pacing him for the long haul. I expect things to look a lot like David Johnson's rookie year.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Hill has been a pretty effective goal line and short yardage option. I wonder if they might still use him in that capacity?Dan Hindery said:
I think Mixon and Bernard can be effective in that role as well. Just looking at what they have done though, and I don't think Hill has been bad at converting these types of plays.
I still really like Giovanni Bernard, he is a talented player. He is going into his 5th season now however and two 2nd round RB have been added since he was. Rb usually have their best years in their first six seasons. Time for Bernard to have a great season is running out, and seems unlikely in the near future due to his contract extension and the other players the Bengals have at the position.
I don't think anything is set in stone, so you may end up being right. But I think there are some things working pretty strongly against Hill and in favor of Mixon. The first is that the Bengals offense became very predictable in terms of run/pass last year based upon whether Hill was in the game or not. He struggled running out of shotgun and didn't add much in the passing game. The talk in the weeks leading up to the draft is that they wanted a RB who was equally effective as a receiver and runner so they could keep him out there and not be so predictable. I think that's especially true this season as they know they have some issues on the OL and want to have that quick strike pass threat at RB to keep defenses honest. They also know they need somebody who might be able to make the first guy miss and create on his own, something that isn't Hill's forte.menobrown said:
I think the real turning point for Hill was in the 2nd Steelers game last year when the Bengals had a goal line play blocked up pretty well and Hill just had to power through the LB (Timmons I believe) for the final half yard. He got knocked back like he was 170 pounds. I know the Bengals radio guy who is very clued in on the team's thinking and tied to the coaching staff brought that play up multiple times as an example of something that happened too often and basically was saying (paraphrasing) if he can't make that type of play for the team, then he doesn't have value because he's not a speed guy or receiver. Maybe Hill shows up to camp and starts running guys over and playing tough and retains his role as the short yardage guy, but I don't think he's viewed as the "incumbent" for that based upon how disappointed they were with him last year.
Hill also faces a bit of a roster crunch for the 45-man active list. As mentioned above, the #4 RB Peerman is the special teams captain. So the Bengals in recent years have usually only had 3 active RBs with Peerman as one of the 4. I've seen some fantasy analysts on twitter saying they think Hill could be cut. I think there's very little chance of that. But IMO there is a pretty good chance that if Mixon/Gio stay healthy that Hill is mostly marginalized and it's a 2-man RBBC and not a 3-man. Bengals haven't been a team that uses 3 RBs on offense.
massraider
Footballguy
I have a big roster IDP dynasty team, and am not sure Gio is worth a roster spot.
Tau837
Footballguy
I was wondering about that possibility. They could save almost $1M in 2017 cap room by releasing him. Could they put that to better use than RB insurance who might not be active on gamedays? Not sure.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Better use than insurance against Bernard coming off a torn up knee and a rookie that's never played a snap and is one bad moment away from never seeing a field? Um, no.
His base salary is $880k with a $50K workout bonus, he's not getting cut at that cost. As someone who owns a piece of this trio in a few leagues I'd love to see him traded but that seems unlikely as well because why I'll never know entire mechanism of compensatory formula I'd think if he'd only bring back something in 5th-7th round range in a trade and for that cost they'd rather keep for year on the cheap and get possible compensatory pick.
This is not a Hill thread but in my IMO he's basically the same guy as Spencer Ware and Perine as a talent. He was overrated early on in his career, he's not special in anyway but I do disagree with the notion he is a poor goal line runner, he's just a solid RB who is below average in the passing game but I don't think he's trash now and that's his value so to me he is now underrated. Not worth a lot mind you, but I think of some value to roster.
Sorry just noticed this question and honesty I don't know the answer. I indicated this coaching staff, from what I've seen, likes to use a RBBC so while Mixon has the skill set to be that guy I'm not sure that's the teams goal, at least while Marvin is the guy.
When I've suggested this to people off this board the main counter they bring up, and one I agree with, is that the Bengals have just not had a RB as talented as Mixon. Again I agree with that point but still not sure that is how the Bengals intend to use him, as a 350+ total touch kind of guy.
And yes it seems crazy to suggest that any coach would ever use Bell or DJ in anything that looked remotely like a RBBC or to get away from that terminology something more like a 240-272, 15-17 touch per game kind of player. We've seen cases of it however and last one comes to mind for me was how Chip used Demarco. Gio is a quality third down/COP running mate so what I can answer is I don't think as long as Gio is healthy and a member of the Bengals Mixon will see a DJ/Bell type workload. Quite likely more than what is seen as a traditional RBBC, more than Hill was used, enough to be an easy RB1, but I tend to think something more like around 280-300 touches a season when it becomes Mixon/Gio and Hill is totally out of the picture.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
perfect time to BUY Gio
Mixon is a bust, Mixon punches another woman, Mixon gets in trouble for anything and then what? JHill sucked last year. Gio is a valuable RB to buy right now IMO
Mixon is a bust, Mixon punches another woman, Mixon gets in trouble for anything and then what? JHill sucked last year. Gio is a valuable RB to buy right now IMO
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Remains to be seen. He is likely worth more than Hill as far as that goes.
If you are talking about deep rosters, there is some point where Bernard is worth more than mystery box rookie or whatever else you might roster instead.
steelers1080
Footballguy
I don't know, Jeremy Hill is younger, not coming off major knee surgery, and has performed better the last 3 years, at least with end of the year stats.
I don't think they cut or trade Hill with only a rookie and Gio coming off surgery. More likely is they slowly work Mixon in to the rotation. Lewis doesn't typically like to throw rookies into the fire, he usually eases them in.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The Bengals gave Bernard a contract extension. He is part of their long term plans. I don't see age as being a factor in this, when neither Hill or Bernard are old.
As far as Hill performing better than Bernard, I would say that is debatable. Hill hasn't been injured as much, but Bernard doing more for the offense when he was in there than HIll in my opinion.
I don't think they cut Hill either, really no reason for them to do so, especially at this point in time. I do respect Dan's opinion about Hill as more tuned in to the Bengals than I am. He is saying that Hills roles in the offense may have all dried up, which would make Hill a back up only. Bernard when healthy should still have a role in the offense as a COP/Backup.
Not sure about Lewis use of rookies. Makes sense that it would take time for Mixon to earn the coaches trust in certain areas, such as pass protection and ease the rookie in slowly. That is the way it goes with most coaches. The rookie RB who hits the ground running is more an exception to this than the other way around.
As far as Mixon goes Samajae Perine did more heavy lifting as a pass protector than Mixon who was usually sent out on a pass route. Not saying Mixon can't block because he can. Just pointing out that Mixon was not getting as many reps as a pass blocker and that may be something that takes time for him to earn the coaches trust with him in that assignment. If Bernard is a better blocker than Mixon, then Bernard may still have a significant role in that area.
There is a long history of Lewis using 2 RB in tandem. One is more the between the tackles power RB role who gets 220 rushing attempts over the season with a handful of targets in the passing game. The 2nd RB gets 100 or so rushing attempts but more targets in the passing game.
Mixon can do both, but in a scenario where Mixon and Bernard are the main RB, that first role goes to him and the 2nd role remains Bernard.
If the RB pair were Hill and Mixon then HIll would get the 1st role (maybe in reduced opportunity) and Mixon would have the receiving role, which would leave nothing for Bernard.
I think a Mixon/Bernard combination makes more sense than a Hill Mixon combination and Bernard is under a long term contract while Hill isn't.
As far as Hill performing better than Bernard, I would say that is debatable. Hill hasn't been injured as much, but Bernard doing more for the offense when he was in there than HIll in my opinion.
I don't think they cut Hill either, really no reason for them to do so, especially at this point in time. I do respect Dan's opinion about Hill as more tuned in to the Bengals than I am. He is saying that Hills roles in the offense may have all dried up, which would make Hill a back up only. Bernard when healthy should still have a role in the offense as a COP/Backup.
Not sure about Lewis use of rookies. Makes sense that it would take time for Mixon to earn the coaches trust in certain areas, such as pass protection and ease the rookie in slowly. That is the way it goes with most coaches. The rookie RB who hits the ground running is more an exception to this than the other way around.
As far as Mixon goes Samajae Perine did more heavy lifting as a pass protector than Mixon who was usually sent out on a pass route. Not saying Mixon can't block because he can. Just pointing out that Mixon was not getting as many reps as a pass blocker and that may be something that takes time for him to earn the coaches trust with him in that assignment. If Bernard is a better blocker than Mixon, then Bernard may still have a significant role in that area.
There is a long history of Lewis using 2 RB in tandem. One is more the between the tackles power RB role who gets 220 rushing attempts over the season with a handful of targets in the passing game. The 2nd RB gets 100 or so rushing attempts but more targets in the passing game.
Mixon can do both, but in a scenario where Mixon and Bernard are the main RB, that first role goes to him and the 2nd role remains Bernard.
If the RB pair were Hill and Mixon then HIll would get the 1st role (maybe in reduced opportunity) and Mixon would have the receiving role, which would leave nothing for Bernard.
I think a Mixon/Bernard combination makes more sense than a Hill Mixon combination and Bernard is under a long term contract while Hill isn't.
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I think the idea that Marvin Lewis doesn't play rookies is a little bit overblown. Especially when it comes to a position like RB. Hill had his career high in touches as a rookie (249). So did Gio Bernard (226).
You usually have a pretty good idea about which rookies are going to play a lot and which aren't right after the draft. Like last year they drafted CB William Jackson in the 1st and it was kind of a given that he'd come in as the 4th or 5th CB and might not play much. But they took Tyler Boyd in the 2nd and the starting slot WR job was basically his from the day he was drafted.
You usually have a pretty good idea about which rookies are going to play a lot and which aren't right after the draft. Like last year they drafted CB William Jackson in the 1st and it was kind of a given that he'd come in as the 4th or 5th CB and might not play much. But they took Tyler Boyd in the 2nd and the starting slot WR job was basically his from the day he was drafted.
I don't think it's overblown. Hill got those touches in large part because Gio got hurt and Gio was the #1 RB taken in his class and was almost dead even on touches Benjarvus Green Ellis who was awful that season.
This is just how some coaches like to handle things. David Johnson was having a rookie season comparable to David Wilson until two injuries got him the playing time he needed to break out. I believe Marvin Lewis, Arians, John Fox are examples of these kind of coaches, coaches that would rather not rely to much on a rookie.
need2know
Footballguy
I think hill is basically third string this season or an insurance policy at RB. He will prob be gone after this season. The fact is the way the Bengals use their backs it's hard to count on them for weekly consistent production. I'm looking elsewhere this year in redraft
matttyl
Footballguy
He'll be an UFA after this year. Assuming Bell either signs a long term deal or is franchised, Hill is likely the top free agent RB under age 26 a year from now (well, him and Hyde). Fingers crossed one ends up in Indy or Green Bay.
Squintz82
Footballguy
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
Possibly over Diggs in the flex
Gio has talent and he'll have a world of opportunity if Mixon is out. He's fresh and he'll get all the work he can handle. Passing downs, early downs, goal line, game flow won't be as issue. I'm starting him in one league over Perine- whose game flow I'm worried about. And in another if Mixon is out he'll be in my lineup and I'll choose between Dion Lewis and Jamaal Williams for my second rb. McKinnon and Collins are on that team too but I easily have Gio above them.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
I have no data to back this up. I watched him Monday and he looked great. This is just my gut.
I’ve been playing fantasy long enough to feel like this has first round playoff bust written all over it. Shiny new toy that you want to plug in and dominate based on opportunity and you get a dud.
Again, I’ve owned Gio in the past and know what he can do. Weeks 7-12 with limited touches cannot be ignored. There’s something to be said about getting more volume this week if Mixon doesn’t go, but for some reason it just feels like a bust play to me.
I’ve been playing fantasy long enough to feel like this has first round playoff bust written all over it. Shiny new toy that you want to plug in and dominate based on opportunity and you get a dud.
Again, I’ve owned Gio in the past and know what he can do. Weeks 7-12 with limited touches cannot be ignored. There’s something to be said about getting more volume this week if Mixon doesn’t go, but for some reason it just feels like a bust play to me.
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
I agree with VikingFrog but my team is filled with busts. I think Gio may bust less. Home game is also a good thing.
Elevencents
Footballguy
Similar position. Leaning Gio over Burkhead, Hogan, McKinnon and Goodwin. Burkhead’s recent GL work is tempting tho.
I'm thinking a little differently...
Both PIT and CLE are Top 10 running defenses...my sense (hope) is the Cincy O-line has begun to gel over the last few games.
Mixon's > Gio but Gio is not a chump.
Steel Curtainrod
Footballguy
He's like the rusty old toy I picked in round 2 of a start up that I thought I would never play again...
wormburner
Footballguy
Wow, small world! Currently rolling with Freeman, Morris and Burkhead. If I knew now that Mixon was going to be out, I'd plug in Gio over Freeman. What does your crystal ball tell you about Mixon playing Sunday?
Steel Curtainrod
Footballguy
It tells me that in this world gone mad, if I bench free or Coleman and Mixon plays ill be starting Deion Lewis and one of McKinnon/Doug martin/tion green/kerwyn williams. I can almost live w that for the shot of gio I featuring
wormburner
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Bernard has been successful as a goal line RB before, he just didn't get many opportunities with Hill getting them all before.
The Bengals do have Brian Hill who was cut by the Falcons, so I suppose he gets activated if Mixon cannot play.
Hill is a bigger RB and that does seem to matter to the coaches. Doesn't mean they would trust him over Bernard in that role though.
I would guess Bernard.
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