RB J.K. Dobbins, LAC (2 Viewers)

[Da Franchise]

I’m fully aware there’s a lot of folks who will never side with the worker in any kind of situation like this so I’m not going to spend anymore time arguing it.

That's not the case here at all - and it's a little disingenuous using that tactic here. I can surely sympathize with the players, especially RBs that tend to get screwed over - the issue here is Dobbins hasn't earned a pay day yet. Barkly and Jacobs have a strong case. Dobbins doe not.

Sorry, didn’t see this. That’s cool if you’re not one of the “He’S uNdEr CoNtRaCt” bros…there are many though and I’m not interested in having that pointless discussion. To your point, it all depends on what he’s asking for, but there is a needle that could be threaded here that is good for both team and player and they should aim to get something worked out. If he’s smart he’s aiming well below what Barkley/Jacobs are looking for. He certainly doesn’t deserve what they deserve. If that’s what he wants, I’ll change my stance, but as long as it’s a reasonable ask, like 2-3 years for $4M AAV with some real guaranteed $$, it makes sense.

 

[Faust]

Jordan Schultz @Schultz_Report
J.K. Dobbins is one of the premier young RBs in the NFL. Not only is he second in the league in YPC (5.9) since 2020, he was flat-out dominant down the stretch of last season - even without Lamar Jackson. IMO, the #Ravens should absolutely pay him. This offense has a chance to be sensational, and Dobbins will be an integral component.

https://twitter.com/schultz_report/status/1669489743501852672?s=21

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm expecting a breakout year from Dobbins. He's far enough removed from his injuries, so unless there is a setback, he's definitely someone I'm trying to get right now. He started to show this in the latter part of 2022. I expect the same thing from Breece Hall in 2024 that I do from Dobbins in 2023. I'm hoping for the same from Javonte 'Williams, but I'll have to see the same improvement for Williams that I saw from Dobbins in the latter part of 2022.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Not everything needs to be a hard stance, I understand the player and organization’s side. Dobbin’s wants financial security to perform his job and the organization most likely wants to make sure he is able to stay healthy and produce before committing. I think it the organizations right to decide who deserves what as well. If Baltimore does not want to commit that is their choice. They could try to find a trade partner with one of the other 31 teams if Dobbin’s decides he is not willing to play without an extension. Fan’s trying to decide what players ”deserve“ may not have the whole story (health, attitude, etc). I hope that he is healthy and Baltimore commits to him because I think he has the talent to put some massive numbers.

 

[travdogg]

I'm expecting a breakout year from Dobbins. He's far enough removed from his injuries, so unless there is a setback, he's definitely someone I'm trying to get right now. He started to show this in the latter part of 2022. I expect the same thing from Breece Hall in 2024 that I do from Dobbins in 2023. I'm hoping for the same from Javonte 'Williams, but I'll have to see the same improvement for Williams that I saw from Dobbins in the latter part of 2023.

There's a poor man's Nick Chubb to Dobbins game. Same high YPC profile, and lack of receiving production. It sure looked like Dobbins explosiveness had returned by year's end, though the hard cuts and powering forward weren't there yet.

I don't really see him as a worse option than Etienne or Walker, but while they are gone by round 4, Dobbins might last another round or 3, due to his injury history. If he can separate from Gus and not cede too much to Lamar. there's a low-end RB1 ceiling.

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm expecting a breakout year from Dobbins. He's far enough removed from his injuries, so unless there is a setback, he's definitely someone I'm trying to get right now. He started to show this in the latter part of 2022. I expect the same thing from Breece Hall in 2024 that I do from Dobbins in 2023. I'm hoping for the same from Javonte 'Williams, but I'll have to see the same improvement for Williams that I saw from Dobbins in the latter part of 2022.

There's a poor man's Nick Chubb to Dobbins game. Same high YPC profile, and lack of receiving production. It sure looked like Dobbins explosiveness had returned by year's end, though the hard cuts and powering forward weren't there yet.

I don't really see him as a worse option than Etienne or Walker, but while they are gone by round 4, Dobbins might last another round or 3, due to his injury history. If he can separate from Gus and not cede too much to Lamar. there's a low-end RB1 ceiling.

I'm not too worried about Edwards, but yes, Lamar hogs the ball running, so that is a concern. Dobbins will have to maximize his opportunities for sure. I think you will see a spry Dobbins this year.

 

[TripItUp]

Love Dobbins' value...great buy low right now.

 

[Rookiefever]

Hopefully he toughs it out and plays even if he doesn’t get another contract. I’m hoping he stays healthy all year and if so he should warrant a better contract than the one he’d sign today. He may be overplaying his hand a bit here. He’s certainly not resetting the rb market with a contract now.

 

[Faust]

The Athletic's Jeff Zrebiec writes, "It's been clear that [Todd] Monken has prioritized playing at a faster pace, getting the backs involved in the passing game and executing in the red zone," at Ravens minicamp.​

In four seasons under former offensive coordinator Greg Roman, the Ravens ranked dead last in running back targets per game (3.4). While some of this can be pinned on Lamar Jackson's rushing and his ability to escape the pocket rather than dumping it down, the Ravens' decision not to target running backs has been glaringly obvious. J.K. Dobbins, who is in the midst of a minor contract dispute with the team, would be the biggest beneficiary of an uptick in targets as it stands right now, while Justice Hill and rookie UDFA Keaton Mitchell could also be factored into the receiving game. Dobbins is currently being drafted as a low-end RB2 in PPR leagues but could easily outperform that draft slot if more targets materialize in what should be a potent offense.
SOURCE: The Athletic
Jun 19, 2023, 2:05 PM ET

 

[Chaka]

It sucks to be a RB, that's for sure.

But after when Lamar went down during the Denver game Dobbins really stepped up and carried that team. He put up 459 rushing on 70 carries (6.6 y/a) over the next 5 games, including the playoffs (the Ravens rested everyone important in week 18). Against the Bengals in the playoffs he went 13-62-0 with 4 receptions for 43 yards and a score.

Gus Edwards played well enough too over that stretch with 46-261-0 with one catch for 13 yards. But he wasn't nearly as consistent game over game and it was Dobbins that the team turned to when it was all on the line for them.

It's a tough case for a raise, or an extension but the Ravens don't need to break the bank to do right by him.

 

[Da Franchise]

He’s on his rookie deal. They can’t give him a raise even if they want to. This is about securing an extension that will provide paychecks even if he tears his knee up again this year. He’s using what little leverage he has- his availability this year to a contending team- to secure his future.

In other words, he’s taking the position that $1.39M is not worth risking his entire future for unless some guaranteed money gets booked for 2024/2025.

Whether he holds that stance into training camp as fines and penalties begin to mount is a different story. He might be bluffing. Hopefully, the Ravens do the right thing and give him a reasonable deal.

 

[King of the Jungle]

He’s on his rookie deal. They can’t give him a raise even if they want to. This is about securing an extension that will provide paychecks even if he tears his knee up again this year. He’s using what little leverage he has- his availability this year to a contending team- to secure his future.

In other words, he’s taking the position that $1.39M is not worth risking his entire future for unless some guaranteed money gets booked for 2024/2025.

Whether he holds that stance into training camp as fines and penalties begin to mount is a different story. He might be bluffing. Hopefully, the Ravens do the right thing and give him a reasonable deal.

Can you explain how the Ravens are “doing the wrong thing” if they do not offer him a reasonable extension?

 

[Da Franchise]

He’s on his rookie deal. They can’t give him a raise even if they want to. This is about securing an extension that will provide paychecks even if he tears his knee up again this year. He’s using what little leverage he has- his availability this year to a contending team- to secure his future.

In other words, he’s taking the position that $1.39M is not worth risking his entire future for unless some guaranteed money gets booked for 2024/2025.

Whether he holds that stance into training camp as fines and penalties begin to mount is a different story. He might be bluffing. Hopefully, the Ravens do the right thing and give him a reasonable deal.

Can you explain how the Ravens are “doing the wrong thing” if they do not offer him a reasonable extension?

Can you explain why they are doing the right thing by not?

 

[rockaction]

Can you explain why they are doing the right thing by not?

Because he hasn't really earned it.

And nobody needs to be reminded in small caps large caps that he is indeed under contract and agreed to play in the NFL -- which is not a monopolistic league -- with a CBA bargained for by its employees totally legally under U.S. law.

Don't like the collective bargaining agreement and U.S. law? Change it. Until then, he's under contract and the whole point of the labor negotiations is the rookie salary pay scale vs. the veterans pay scale. Don't like it? Get the players better representation or have them more unified.

 

[Da Franchise]

And Yada, yada, yada, that’s why I said I’m not playing. Glad we jumped to the end.

 

[King of the Jungle]

And Yada, yada, yada, that’s why I said I’m not playing. Glad we jumped to the end.

Quit pushing a narrative you do not want to discuss then.

 

[Chaka]

Because he hasn't really earned it.

I'm not sure I agree. I contend Dobbins is the reason the Ravens were still able to make the playoffs after Lamar got hurt.

He performed at an impressive level, particularly as Huntley was completely mediocre over his first four starts and I don't think it's a coincidence his best game was against the Bengals when Dobbins caught 4-43-1.

The "earn it" argument is particularly insidious as it relates to RBs as the peak career span for the position is typically during their first contract. I think Dobbins has a legitimate argument that he has earned a reasonable extension.

 

[Da Franchise]

And Yada, yada, yada, that’s why I said I’m not playing. Glad we jumped to the end.

Quit pushing a narrative you do not want to discuss then.

It’s not a CBA thread. I’ll discuss Dobbins’ situation.

He’s obviously shown he’s good enough to deserve a contract in the NFL when healthy, so this idea that he hasn’t earned it is just wrong. He’s using the one point of leverage he has, his availability, to attempt to ensure he gets that contract regardless of…no…especially because of the injury risk he carries this year. He can choose not to play if he wants. The team can choose not to give him an extension if they want. There’s a good middle ground solution that’s good for team and player where Dobbins trades his potential of having a crazy season that lands him a big deal (relatively speaking) for the security of a modest deal (relatively speaking).

 

[Da Franchise]

Because he hasn't really earned it.

I'm not sure I agree. I contend Dobbins is the reason the Ravens were still able to make the playoffs after Lamar got hurt.

He performed at an impressive level, particularly as Huntley was completely mediocre over his first four starts and I don't think it's a coincidence his best game was against the Bengals when Dobbins caught 4-43-1.

The "earn it" argument is particularly insidious as it relates to RBs as the peak career span for the position is typically during their first contract. I think Dobbins has a legitimate argument that he has earned a reasonable extension.

Of course he has. The only reason he wouldn’t get one, either from the Ravens or another team as a UFA, is if he gets another serious injury. No one would legitimately argue he’s not a good enough player to deserve a contract.

 

[rockaction]

Of course he has.

J.K. Dobbins was a promising rookie who got hurt in what might have been his breakout year to continuing to have surgery up and through last year.

Regardless of whether you think the RB pay scale is "equitable," he's earned a lot less than most RBs who have completed their third year. Jonathan Taylor immediately comes to mind as somebody who was hurt at one point but has earned it. He went for over 1500 yards his second year. He has no second contract. Tell me why Dobbins deserves one. He's never rushed for over a thousand and his best year was his rookie year. I mean, your stance is really untenable, all things considered from a bird's-eye view.

eta* I had used stronger language but want to keep this dispassionate. I had said "ridiculous" instead of "really untenable," but see no need for that sort of castigation. Everyone can hold differing opinions.

 

[rockaction]

I also think every time this comes up we see positions carved out about performance that actually reflect the user's position on the CBA and the general power structure in the NFL. I'm trying to avoid that and make it an argument based on football. I'm not sure the two are severable, but I think @Da Franchise is wrong on both counts.

I also support amending the CBA for running backs, but I'm not sure how to do it so that it's fair for other players at other positions. It sets a dangerous precedent in the NFL to carve out a positional exception for contract structure. Believe me, there will be Rumsfeldian foreseen and unforeseen effects, not to mention things not foreseen that are unforeseen.

 

[Da Franchise]

Go ahead and point out where I discussed the CBA, or running back equity, or claimed he deserves the same as Taylor- which is a false equivalency anyway btw because Taylor hasn’t been injured to that degree, has performed much higher, and probably aims much higher for what he would accept on his next deal. If you can, I’ll apologize for taking the discussion off track. If you can’t, guess what that means.

 

[rockaction]

Go ahead and point out where I discussed the CBA, or running back equity, or claimed he deserves the same as Taylor- which is a false equivalency anyway btw because Taylor hasn’t been injured to that degree, has performed much higher, and probably aims much higher for what he would accept on his next deal. If you can, I’ll apologize for taking the discussion off track. If you can’t, guess what that means.

You said "before the guys come in and claim he's under contract" and typed it in upper/lowercase letters, which we all know means you're trying to make the argument sound ridiculous and not up for debate. So it sounds like you specifically brought a line of argument up to either debate it or portend to settle it before it even happens. If it's the former, that's fine. That's what we do here. If it's the latter, you're self-imposing and setting the parameters of debate on a board you don't moderate.

I'll let you know what that means if you can't guess what that means.

There are things I think, and I think that:

1. Your claim that the CBA argument is stupid doesn't hold snuff
2. Your attempt to circumvent that discussion is poor form
3. I certainly won't hold it against you doing that once, but if it continues, I'll note it (whether that means whisker fiddles to you is up to you)
4. Even that said, Dobbins hasn't earned his contract with any significantly good performance, and I am willing to debate that point, too

 

[Da Franchise]

Please refer to previous post.

 

[rockaction]

Please refer to previous post.

Nothing about what I said deters from the conversation.

Absolutely nothing.

And you are falsely imputing to me a position I never took about Taylor. I never said you said Dobbins should receive Taylor-esque compensation.

And since one good turn deserves another, I'll refer you to my post with the four enumerated points should you need any more edification. Sounds like you really don't want a discussion at all. Sounds like you want to whine.

 

[rockaction]

That’s cool if you’re not one of the “He’S uNdEr CoNtRaCt” bros…there are many though and I’m not interested in having that pointless discussion

Wherever you go, there you are.

 

[Da Franchise]

That’s cool if you’re not one of the “He’S uNdEr CoNtRaCt” bros…there are many though and I’m not interested in having that pointless discussion

Wherever you go, there you are.

Please see previous previous post.

 

[rockaction]

Please see previous previous post.

Yeah, no. I have very little interest engaging you here today. Good day.

 

[Chaka]

Of course he has.

J.K. Dobbins was a promising rookie who got hurt in what might have been his breakout year to continuing to have surgery up and through last year.

Regardless of whether you think the RB pay scale is "equitable," he's earned a lot less than most RBs who have completed their third year. Jonathan Taylor immediately comes to mind as somebody who was hurt at one point but has earned it. He went for over 1500 yards his second year. He has no second contract. Tell me why Dobbins deserves one. He's never rushed for over a thousand and his best year was his rookie year. I mean, your stance is really untenable, all things considered from a bird's-eye view.

eta* I had used stronger language but want to keep this dispassionate. I had said "ridiculous" instead of "really untenable," but see no need for that sort of castigation. Everyone can hold differing opinions.

Taylor should be vying for a new contract prior to the start of this season. Particularly after an injury plagued down year.

 

[rockaction]

Taylor should be vying for a new contract prior to the start of this season. Particularly after an injury plagued down year.

I agree. He seems to want to test the market. I think he should see what he can get from the Colts in guarantees, because there's no guarantee he'll be around in a year. It's not a fun, glamorous position anymore.

 

[pinkstapler]

Of course he has.

J.K. Dobbins was a promising rookie who got hurt in what might have been his breakout year to continuing to have surgery up and through last year.

Regardless of whether you think the RB pay scale is "equitable," he's earned a lot less than most RBs who have completed their third year. Jonathan Taylor immediately comes to mind as somebody who was hurt at one point but has earned it. He went for over 1500 yards his second year. He has no second contract. Tell me why Dobbins deserves one. He's never rushed for over a thousand and his best year was his rookie year. I mean, your stance is really untenable, all things considered from a bird's-eye view.

eta* I had used stronger language but want to keep this dispassionate. I had said "ridiculous" instead of "really untenable," but see no need for that sort of castigation. Everyone can hold differing opinions.

This is a good and fair point. I think the obvious counterpoint, though admittedly not as strong as it's based on assumption, if Dobbins was currently a FA he'd very likely get signed to a deal and have future guaranteed money past this season. Taking into account it could be the same exact money he's making now, just also promised for the next two years as well; I don't see how any reasonable, impartial person would really disagree with that. He proved to be recovered enough from the injury last season. And in general, when healthy, he's performed at a high enough level to get a (spit balling here) 3 year ~$4.2 mil, maybe $2.5 mil guaranteed contract. For the sake of "winning an online debate" I can see excuses out the woodwork, but really, it's hard not to believe. Obvious and likely valid counter to THAT is would that even make Dobbins happy? Again, speculation, but being reasonable myself, I'd guess probably not lol. So it all is a moot point really.

Franchise summed it up well that the Ravens don't have to give him anything. I don't think anyone is arguing that. And I wouldn't argue they should, at least not from a morality standpoint. But, the team is much better with Dobbins on it. And Dobbins missing time now will not help his performance in the season. That's it. So from there they can gamble he'll suck it up and play (a likely good odds gamble on their part), but then just deal with the repercussions of an unhappy and underprepared player. Obviously you can say that's Dobbins' own fault, but the team still is dealing with the fall out of it. Not a fun way to go about it, but it feels like publicly offering him a low extension with minimum guarantees and some incentive/performance based pay would be the smart play. It's far too easy for us to sit here and make hot take "tough decisions" when we won't ever feel the consequences of them. Even when we come from a place of fact ie "CBA says/contract says/RB market/injury". I can argue with myself the opposite points here as well, setting a bad precedent caving into player demands like this, they've also performed well enough without him on the field, the Gus Bus def has fuel in the tank yet, there are other FA rbs they could pick up for similar/negligibly more money than my fake contract above right now who have more proven track record (Cook/Hunt/Elliot). Just all that to say, I don't think it's a cut and dry easy call either way on this one. There will be some consequences regardless of how they choose to proceed here.

 

[rockaction]

I don't think it's a cut and dry easy call either way on this one.

This is what they call "getting to maybe" in law school. At least our professors pimped their book entitled that. It's when you see both sides of an argument and can argue each into the ground with no real firm resolution.

Kudos to you for seeing the issues and thinking about them in kind.

 

[pinkstapler]

I don't think it's a cut and dry easy call either way on this one.

This is what they call "getting to maybe" in law school. At least our professors pimped their book entitled that. It's when you see both sides of an argument and can argue each into the ground with no real firm resolution.

Kudos to you for seeing the issues and thinking about them in kind.

That's funny, it's the same title I was going to use for my book about the closest I will ever come to winning an argument with my wife. I guess instead I can go with my backup title of "Yes Dear"

Also I'm a fully admitted Dobbins apologist; so as much as I fight against it, blind optimism sometimes breaks through the walls of logic to convince me he'll still be a top 5 RB for a few seasons for me in dynasty.

 

[rockaction]

so as much as I fight against it, blind optimism sometimes breaks through the walls of logic to convince me he'll still be a top 5 RB for a few seasons for me in dynasty.

I'd personally like to see him do well and think there's a chance he hits like you'd like him to. He was such a good back coming out of Ohio State, and it's been a shame he didn't get used when he was healthy before suffering his injury.

 

[Ilov80s]

so as much as I fight against it, blind optimism sometimes breaks through the walls of logic to convince me he'll still be a top 5 RB for a few seasons for me in dynasty.

I'd personally like to see him do well and think there's a chance he hits like you'd like him to. He was such a good back coming out of Ohio State, and it's been a shame he didn't get used when he was healthy before suffering his injury.

Yeah I am personally rooting for him because I thought he was an awesome prospect coming out but I will continue to not touch him in fantasy.

 

[pinkstapler]

Much like his current decision to hold out, right or wrong, Dobbins has suffered from a chronic case of "poor timing" so far in his career. I think my best (selfish) hope, is that he gives up, goes to camp, balls out this season, and goes to another team as their RB1. It's hard to project him to a ceiling sharing a field with LJax. He'll be 25+, but then I can wrap myself in the warm cope blanket of "he has less wear and tear than your typical 25 yr old rb and could easily play high level till 28/29".

 

[Chaka]

Taylor should be vying for a new contract prior to the start of this season. Particularly after an injury plagued down year.

I agree. He seems to want to test the market. I think he should see what he can get from the Colts in guarantees, because there's no guarantee he'll be around in a year. It's not a fun, glamorous position anymore.

Which is why I don't fault Dobbins for testing the waters now instead of waiting until after this year. Particularly seeing what happened to Dalvin and Ekeler already and watching Jacobs & Barkley's contracts unfold.

He hasn't done as much as Taylor and he shouldn't be seeking as much (although his per touch efficiency is stupid good). But he was great as a rookie and he carried the Ravens to the playoffs last year after Lamar was injured.

It wouldn't be a bad business for the Ravens to offer him some kind of ~$4mil/year extension.

 

[rockaction]

It wouldn't be a bad business for the Ravens to offer him some kind of ~$4mil/year extension.

No, it wouldn't. And I'd do that if I were the Ravens GM and I knew his medicals were intact. (Who better to know?) But I'm speculating that Dobbins wouldn't take a four million dollar extension. I think he'll be asking for more money than that, though I have no concrete way of knowing. That figure strikes me as a low one, and I doubt the two sides would have that much difficulty getting a deal done if that number were the amount he was actually seeking.

 

[Chaka]

It wouldn't be a bad business for the Ravens to offer him some kind of ~$4mil/year extension.

No, it wouldn't. And I'd do that if I were the Ravens GM and I knew his medicals were intact. (Who better to know?) But I'm speculating that Dobbins wouldn't take a four million dollar extension. I think he'll be asking for more money than that, though I have no concrete way of knowing. That figure strikes me as a low one, and I doubt the two sides would have that much difficulty getting a deal done if that number were the amount he was actually seeking.

Of course, I throw the contract numbers out there without much thought TBH. The way I see it is if Ekeler = $6 mil then Dobbins = $4 mil-ish.

Florio floated the idea of RBs carving out their own separate union. It'll never happen, which Florio acknowledges, but the way the position is being treated I wouldn't blame them for trying. Particularly as the restriction on paying any player is entirely arbitrary. Frankly, the NFL as an institution is deeply un-American in its ethos and practices.

 

[Chaka]

I understand why Dobbins will probably end up "betting on himself" this season but, if he can get $3.5-$4.5 per year on a 3-4 year extension now the smart move would be to take that money.

 

[rockaction]

Florio floated the idea of RBs carving out their own separate union.

I don't think that would be legal.

Frankly, the NFL as an institution is deeply un-American in its ethos and practices.

All the sports leagues are. And they've been helped by the justice system. What other professions tell eighteen year-olds they can't work for a living? It's insane, actually, the contortions that labor lawyers and judges have gone through to keep the leagues form being a true labor market.

 

[Da Franchise]

It wouldn't be a bad business for the Ravens to offer him some kind of ~$4mil/year extension.

No, it wouldn't. And I'd do that if I were the Ravens GM and I knew his medicals were intact. (Who better to know?) But I'm speculating that Dobbins wouldn't take a four million dollar extension. I think he'll be asking for more money than that, though I have no concrete way of knowing. That figure strikes me as a low one, and I doubt the two sides would have that much difficulty getting a deal done if that number were the amount he was actually seeking.

Pretty sure $4m is the exact AAV I floated awhile back and these points pinkstapler is making are very much in line with what I was saying. We seem to be in agreement on a middle ground solution. Not sure why you were insisting I debate things I said up front I wasn’t interested in debating, or more accurately don’t have the energy to debate, but that’s cool.

 

[rockaction]

Not sure why you were insisting I debate things I said up front I wasn’t interested in debating, or more accurately don’t have the energy to debate, but that’s cool.

I think maybe when somebody jumps into a conversation like I did, one can miss some of the previous points made.

I also think the two (Dobbins salary and the rookie pay scale under the CBA) are inseparable. That's also why it needs to be addressed. I wasn't even trying to debate you substantively because I also take a pretty pro-RB view of things, especially considering I'm a fantasy footballer. It's just that the reality of the situation and what the organization does is going to be potentially predicated on the desire to avoid a precedent set by extending a rookie running back before his first contract is over.

 

[Chaka]

Obviously you can say that's Dobbins' own fault,

I don't see any argument for that. Because he was good at football so he pursued it as a career is the closest I can come to laying "blame" on Dobbins. "Gee, I'm really good at something but I guess I can't make a long term career out of it so I should do something else." is not a great argument. $5.7 million dollars at 22 years old isn't screw you money. Particularly with the long yerm health considerations. ETA: but it's far too good of a head start to pass upon.

The fault is entirely the arbitrary salary system the NFL forces onto the players. We can pretend the union has equal footing in negotiations but that is patently false. 23 year old millionaires with a 4 year career window will always lose against 80 year old billionaire oligarchs and their offspring who were born on 3rd base and think they hit a triple.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think he'll be asking for more money than that, though I have no concrete way of knowing. That figure strikes me as a low one, and I doubt the two sides would have that much difficulty getting a deal done if that number were the amount he was actually seeking.

That's the main point those pretending anyone that disagrees with him "is against employees" is missing. It's also in Dobbin's best interest to go out and prove he's healthy and can be productive. If Dobbins was only looking for an extension near the veteran minimum the Ravens would jump all over that. He's NOT a free agent, so what he could make right now on the open market is irrelevant. The Ravens have no incentive to pay a guy with Dobbins' track record anything significant right now and if he wants to hold out, Fournette and Elliot could come in cheaply and produce in a committee with Edwards. I doubt it gets to that point, as Dobbins' agent has to know realistically it's in Dobbins best interest to showcase himself for the Ravens or for free agency next offseason.

If Dobbin gets out there and puts up 1,200 yards and 6-7TDs on the ground, his leverage rises and he's in far better position to get paid.

 

[pinkstapler]

It wouldn't be a bad business for the Ravens to offer him some kind of ~$4mil/year extension.

No, it wouldn't. And I'd do that if I were the Ravens GM and I knew his medicals were intact. (Who better to know?) But I'm speculating that Dobbins wouldn't take a four million dollar extension. I think he'll be asking for more money than that, though I have no concrete way of knowing. That figure strikes me as a low one, and I doubt the two sides would have that much difficulty getting a deal done if that number were the amount he was actually seeking.

Pretty sure $4m is the exact AAV I floated awhile back and these points pinkstapler is making are very much in line with what I was saying. We seem to be in agreement on a middle ground solution. Not sure why you were insisting I debate things I said up front I wasn’t interested in debating, or more accurately don’t have the energy to debate, but that’s cool.

Maybe just because it could appear that in saying that, especially without expounding on the why, you were trying to pigeon hole any response into a target easier to knockdown? I'm sure that's not what was happening; but any kinds of discussion like these on msg boards will suffer from a lack of clarity and have gaps filled in by assumptions. It's why I err on the side of long-winded explanations. It can be annoying, for me to feel like I have to overexplain, and to readers who want brevity; but it can help prevent the misunderstandings which all too often then turn into a more heated thing with some hard feelings. Good example I've found myself in is backing out of discussions that fall into "stat battles". Just backing away saying I don't do them could easily come off as "hey this guys arguments fall to hell when confronted with statistical facts! and then he runs away!", when in reality I'll explain (what feels like doesn't need explaining sometimes) that stats can be found and manipulated to back all kinds of arguments, often times even opposing sides of the same argument. And then it tends to get perceived much better, and result in some better discussion. Or at least a discussion that remains on the actual point, rather than the minutiae of the details.

 

[Da Franchise]

Not sure why you were insisting I debate things I said up front I wasn’t interested in debating, or more accurately don’t have the energy to debate, but that’s cool.

I think maybe when somebody jumps into a conversation like I did, one can miss some of the previous points made.

I also think the two (Dobbins salary and the rookie pay scale under the CBA) are inseparable. That's also why it needs to be addressed. I wasn't even trying to debate you substantively because I also take a pretty pro-RB view of things, especially considering I'm a fantasy footballer. It's just that the reality of the situation and what the organization does is going to be potentially predicated on the desire to avoid a precedent set by extending a rookie running back before his first contract is over.

The rookie pay scale and CBA are what they are. There’s not much to discuss. I’m not sure why more RBs haven’t held out to force an extension heading into year 4 (going from memory but I can’t recall it happening much) but WRs have done so effectively in several instances.

I just double checked the penalty for holding out is $40k per day, although for players on rookie deals the fines can be waived. So there seems to be a path here where Dobbins can push the issue and it makes sense for the Ravens to keep him happy if he’s being reasonable in terms of the ask.

 

[pinkstapler]

Obviously you can say that's Dobbins' own fault,

I don't see any argument for that. Because he was good at football so he pursued it as a career is the closest I can come to laying "blame" on Dobbins. "Gee, I'm really good at something but I guess I can't make a long term career out of it so I should do something else." is not a great argument. $5.7 million dollars at 22 years old isn't screw you money.

The fault is entirely the arbitrary salary system the NFL forces onto the players. We can pretend the union has equal footing in negotiations but that is patently false. 23 year old millionaires with a 4 year career window will always lose against 80 year old billionaire oligarchs and their offspring who were born on 3rd base and think they hit a triple.

Oh I agree, just playing both sides again. Politics aside, it's similar to the "systemic issue" vs. "personal accountability" arguments. Realistically, both are at play. The system is screwing Dobbins, meanwhile what is he doing to get what he wants within the parameters of that system. And is what he's doing going to help/hurt him in the short term? What about the long term? It's a complicated scenario with a lot of unknown variables.

I don't think it's fair to hit him with a "pull yourself up by your bootstraps" argument. But I also don't think it's realistically fair to expect the Ravens to act outside their own personal interests based on what's been collectively agreed to. It'd be like expecting Amazon to not utilize every loophole in the tax code they can to pay as little as possible every year. Easy to morality shame them, but I think the vast majority of people finding themselves in a similar situation would be doing the same thing and making up some mental gymnastics about how "well this is different".

 

[Da Franchise]

I think he'll be asking for more money than that, though I have no concrete way of knowing. That figure strikes me as a low one, and I doubt the two sides would have that much difficulty getting a deal done if that number were the amount he was actually seeking.

That's the main point those pretending anyone that disagrees with him "is against employees" is missing. It's also in Dobbin's best interest to go out and prove he's healthy and can be productive. If Dobbins was only looking for an extension near the veteran minimum the Ravens would jump all over that. He's NOT a free agent, so what he could make right now on the open market is irrelevant. The Ravens have no incentive to pay a guy with Dobbins' track record anything significant right now and if he wants to hold out, Fournette and Elliot could come in cheaply and produce in a committee with Edwards. I doubt it gets to that point, as Dobbins' agent has to know realistically it's in Dobbins best interest to showcase himself for the Ravens or for free agency next offseason.

If Dobbin gets out there and puts up 1,200 yards and 6-7TDs on the ground, his leverage rises and he's in far better position to get paid.

I didn’t say anyone who disagrees with me is against the employees. I said there is a faction that won’t ever agree with the employee in such a situation and that’s still true. I’m not pretending anything and I’m not being disingenuous as you or someone else said before. In fact, quite the opposite.

Hunt, Fournette and Elliott aren’t as good as a healthy Dobbins, and the latter two are kind of redundant to Gus. Cook is closer to Dobbins and might be a viable replacement if the money were equal, but if the money is similar why go through all that trouble. Just work it out with the younger Dobbins.

Your last couple lines are definitely true; he would be in a better position if he has a productive year. Flip side of that coin is he’s a torn ACL or Achilles away from being a fringe NFL player that has to wait until training camp to get a 1 year deal. If I’m Dobbins, having already gone through multiple surgeries and recovery, I’m willing to sacrifice the possibility of being in that stronger position for a more modest guarantee now.

And from the Ravens point of view, they expect to be contenders. Sure, they can refuse to engage him, but then they have a roster problem to fix. So if he’s being reasonable, it makes some sense to get it locked up. If he’s not being reasonable, they can tell him to pound sand. We can’t know what the number is right now but it strikes me as a situation where the player is likely to act reasonably given what he’s been through the last two years. Perhaps I’m wrong about that. We will likely hear some numbers at some point.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I didn’t say anyone who disagrees with me is against the employees.

your exact quote was this:

I’m fully aware there’s a lot of folks who will never side with the worker in any kind of situation like this so I’m not going to spend anymore time arguing it.

If you want to now argue semantics, I'm out, but knock yourself out.