FALLER: RB J.K. DOBBINS, BALTIMORE RAVENS
Dobbins came out of Ohio State as a player who checked all of the boxes. He carried the ball 301 times for 2,003 yards and 21 scores while adding at least 20 receptions in all three of his collegiate seasons. He checked all of the boxes on film, as well.
From PFF's Mike Renner’s breakdown of him in the spring, “Dobbins has arguably the best vision in the class. … Dobbins is consistent with his pacing as he approaches the line of scrimmage, and he's decisive with his cuts.” The Ravens affirmed his talent by spending a second-round pick on him in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Since then, things have gone downhill for Dobbins. Even with Mark Ingram sidelined for the past two weeks, Dobbins has not assumed a three-down or even two-down role. He has split carries with Gus Edwards (27-27) evenly. Edwards, who did not have a reception on the year heading into Week 8, also saw just one fewer target than Dobbins (4 to 3) in those two games.
As a runner, Dobbins has shown nothing but excellence. His 3.6 yards after contact per attemptranks top five (min. 50 carries) among backs. His usage remains the problem. No level of efficiency will get Dobbins to an RB1 season if he continues to split his backfield with Edwards and Ingram, who is expected to return this week.
Dobbins’ unquestionable talent should win out in the long run, so it’s reasonable to buy the dip here. However, it’s not a guarantee that he ever moves beyond operating in a committee. Acquiring Dobbins in dynasty leagues is a high-upside, modest-floor move that is risky but worth the cost.