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RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (1 Viewer)

I'm deciding, in a one-player keeper league, whether to trade for Gibbs or Taylor before the draft. Rush TD-heavy scoring, non PPR league. Thoughts?
 
I'm deciding, in a one-player keeper league, whether to trade for Gibbs or Taylor before the draft. Rush TD-heavy scoring, non PPR league. Thoughts?
In that format, I’d lean JT given it’s a non-PPR.

I concur

though JT will be 26 in January, Jah doesn’t turn 23 until March

more likely than not to get a few more seasons out of Gibbs

we’ve probably seen Taylor’s peak

we probably have not seen Gibbs peak

if it’s a win now thing, go for it, the scoring format probably favors the Colts RB
 
We can't see how Gibbs can return the value to justify his ADP. OK....

Rushing​
Receiving​
Fantasy​
Player
Team
G
Att
Yard
TD
Target
Rec
Yard
TD
FPts
FPts/G
1. Christian McCaffrey​
SF​
16​
272​
1,459​
14​
83​
67​
564​
7​
391.3​
24.5​
2. Breece Hall​
NYJ​
17​
223​
994​
5​
95​
76​
591​
4​
288.5​
17.0​
3. Travis Etienne​
JAC​
17​
267​
1,008​
11​
73​
58​
476​
1​
278.4​
16.4​
4. Rachaad White​
TB​
17​
272​
990​
6​
70​
64​
549​
3​
267.9​
15.8​
5. Raheem Mostert​
MIA​
15​
209​
1,012​
18​
32​
25​
175​
3​
267.7​
17.8​
6. Joe Mixon​
CIN​
17​
257​
1,034​
9​
64​
52​
376​
3​
265.0​
15.6​
7. Kyren Williams​
LAR​
12​
228​
1,144​
12​
48​
32​
206​
3​
253.0​
21.1​
8. Bijan Robinson​
ATL​
17​
214​
976​
4​
86​
58​
487​
4​
246.3​
14.5​
9. Jahmyr Gibbs​
DET​
15​
182​
945​
10​
71​
52​
316​
1​
242.1​
16.1​
10. Derrick Henry​
TEN​
17​
280​
1,167​
12​
36​
28​
214​
0​
238.1​
14.0​
11. James Cook​
BUF​
17​
237​
1,122​
2​
54​
44​
445​
4​
232.7​
13.7​
12. Alvin Kamara​
NO​
13​
180​
694​
5​
86​
75​
466​
1​
227.0​
17.5​
17. David Montgomery​
DET​
14​
219​
1,015​
13​
24​
16​
117​
0​
205.2​
14.7​

Could we imagine a world in which Gibbs plays 17 games? Because if he did that last year and maintained the same PPG pace, he would have scored 274.4. RB4

But only 17 RBs managed 200+ touches and played 17 games.

Let's say he misses 2 games again, but scores the same PPT (points per touch.) No improvement from Y1 to Y2, but he's just the same guy. He had 234 touches last year. That's 15.6 per game. If we increase his touches to 17.67, and keep the points per touch the same, - 1.03 - he would score 274.1, RB4.

We can't justify his ADP....because we can't see him staying healthy....or because we can't imagine a world in which his usage increases 2 touches per game?

Is it because only 4 RBs average more than 1 point per touch? He was one of them, along with CMC, Mostert and Achane. Why would he decline? I'm not aware of any data that shows early breakout, high draft capital, efficient RBs decline Y2 from Y1. Same HC, same offense, same offensive coordinator, same QB WR1 RB2 TE1. Offensive line - replaced Jonah Jackson with an upgrade, Kevin Zeitler. There's a reason they are the #1 line in the NFL. The coach is committed to running the ball.

Explain to me why taking Gibbs at RB6 is not green light all the way?
1,132 and 13 TDs over just 14 games
This RB likely would have gone over 250 carries had he stayed healthy for all 17 games, he missed a full 3 weeks
Of course I'm talking about Monty at the RB-1B we'll call it now.
They pay him an avg salary of $6M at RB, they could draft a RB in the 3rd or 4th, cost them a lot less and they all seem to believe in what Monty brings to the offense.

Do you see Monty being fazed out this season? The 2 RBs make one of the strongest RB tandems in the NFL
I see big things for Gibbs and love him on the 1/2 turn where I scooped him up in 10 team redrafts. I never really had to make a choice when I wasn't in a position to take him but I am prepared in some of my more serious redrafts, you know the ones that hold them either the night prior to kickoff or during the actual TNF kickoff game, I am prepared to take him higher than his ADP if I feel boxed in during the 1st round. I have a couple RBs I like at Gibbs level or tier. I put Saquon in that tier and I have a couple others but Gibbs should improve on his numbers. He started off pretty slow as I recall, Monty was getting a lot of work early in the season and then was injured.

This is faulty logic. There is no guarantee that a drafted back will be as good as Montgomery, no matter where he is drafted.
You missed my point but we also agree I think
I'm saying they pay Monty about $6M per year and if they could get away with a 3rd or 4th, they'd do it but they can't
And that's why I think he will be involved a lot in Year 2 of his deal, easily could see 240-250 carries, doesn't catch the ball as often as Gibbs.
I don't think we will ever see the Lions offense not feature 2RB or rely strictly on just 1 guy
 
Deepak Chona, MD writes an injury report for Fantasy Pros. This is what he wrote about Gibbs today:

RB hamstring injuries average 2-3 weeks. Reports suggest Gibbs intends to return at ~2, which would confirm relatively mild severity. Don’t expect much of a performance dip by the time Week 1 starts, but he does carry ~20% re-injury risk through the first half of the season.
 
Top 12 ppr RB next year, top 5 dyno RB heading into 2024.

If I am wrong I will self impose a 3 month ban for this account.
This prediction was pretty darn good

It was, but it was the popular opinion before the season last year. He was being drafted in the 3rd round last year in high stakes draft between rb 10 and 15.
It was not the popular opinion a) when it was posted in here, b) on this board. There was real debate in here about Gibbs. Check out pages 8-16 of this thread.
 
Hope you’re right everyone, because picking 1.07 in my NFFC rotoworld online championship tonight I went JJ ~> Gibbs.

I’ve done a lot of mocks. That’s the latest I’ve seen him go.
:wub:

I know, I know. Nobody cares about my FF team.
 
Top 12 ppr RB next year, top 5 dyno RB heading into 2024.

If I am wrong I will self impose a 3 month ban for this account.
This prediction was pretty darn good

It was, but it was the popular opinion before the season last year. He was being drafted in the 3rd round last year in high stakes draft between rb 10 and 15.
It was not the popular opinion a) when it was posted in here, b) on this board. There was real debate in here about Gibbs. Check out pages 8-16 of this thread.

I traded away Addison for him while he was hurt (WKs 5-6); he scored all 10 of TDs and had his best games post-trade (& this red hot player thread turned into crickets.)

:championship:
 
Top 12 ppr RB next year, top 5 dyno RB heading into 2024.

If I am wrong I will self impose a 3 month ban for this account.
This prediction was pretty darn good

It was, but it was the popular opinion before the season last year. He was being drafted in the 3rd round last year in high stakes draft between rb 10 and 15.
It was not the popular opinion a) when it was posted in here, b) on this board. There was real debate in here about Gibbs. Check out pages 8-16 of this thread.

I traded away Addison for him while he was hurt (WKs 5-6); he scored all 10 of TDs and had his best games post-trade (& this red hot player thread turned into crickets.)

:championship:
I care about your FF team, buddy.
:wub:
 
Deepak Chona, MD writes an injury report for Fantasy Pros. This is what he wrote about Gibbs today:

RB hamstring injuries average 2-3 weeks. Reports suggest Gibbs intends to return at ~2, which would confirm relatively mild severity. Don’t expect much of a performance dip by the time Week 1 starts, but he does carry ~20% re-injury risk through the first half of the season.
Thought for sure that said Deepak Chopra :lmao:
 
I'm taking JT over him. Richardson has been a disaster meaning JT is going to get a lot of work.
If Richardson’s a big enough disaster that means not a lot of scoring opportunities for JT in the red zone. And when they do get there, Richardsons running in some of those.
 
I'm taking JT over him. Richardson has been a disaster meaning JT is going to get a lot of work.

I'm picking at 1.09 and essentially that's the decision I'm going to be making myself, however, I am leaning Gibbs and hoping somehow Taylor or Barkley are waiting for me at 2.04.

12 team league.
 
I'm taking JT over him. Richardson has been a disaster meaning JT is going to get a lot of work.
If Richardson’s a big enough disaster that means not a lot of scoring opportunities for JT in the red zone. And when they do get there, Richardsons running in some of those.
Gibbs has to share a backfield with a fantastic GL runner. He also has to share with LaPorta and ARSB.

JT is going to get as much work as he can. Richardson will have his moments and I don't see him being as much of a threat as Hurts near the GL.
 
I'm taking JT over him. Richardson has been a disaster meaning JT is going to get a lot of work.

I'm picking at 1.09 and essentially that's the decision I'm going to be making myself, however, I am leaning Gibbs and hoping somehow Taylor or Barkley are waiting for me at 2.04.

12 team league.
Neither will be there. I have them JT, Gibbs, Barkley and I live in Detroit.
 
I'm taking JT over him. Richardson has been a disaster meaning JT is going to get a lot of work.

I'm picking at 1.09 and essentially that's the decision I'm going to be making myself, however, I am leaning Gibbs and hoping somehow Taylor or Barkley are waiting for me at 2.04.

12 team league.
Neither will be there. I have them JT, Gibbs, Barkley and I live in Detroit.

You're probably right. In that case I would go best WR available. I wouldn't be crazy about going RB/RB in 2024 anyways, but if there's some kind of slippage I'd be down to have any combination of those players as the best two players on my team.

I'd have to go WR/WR with picks 3/4 but I think there's definite value in and around that range.
 
I'm taking JT over him. Richardson has been a disaster meaning JT is going to get a lot of work.

I'm picking at 1.09 and essentially that's the decision I'm going to be making myself, however, I am leaning Gibbs and hoping somehow Taylor or Barkley are waiting for me at 2.04.

12 team league.
Neither will be there. I have them JT, Gibbs, Barkley and I live in Detroit.

You're probably right. In that case I would go best WR available. I wouldn't be crazy about going RB/RB in 2024 anyways, but if there's some kind of slippage I'd be down to have any combination of those players as the best two players on my team.

I'd have to go WR/WR with picks 3/4 but I think there's definite value in and around that range.
Actually, mocking a RB in round 1 has left me with better teams I feel. Even going RB-RB seems pretty solid this year.

Good luck
 
Hope you’re right everyone, because picking 1.07 in my NFFC rotoworld online championship tonight I went JJ ~> Gibbs.

I’ve done a lot of mocks. That’s the latest I’ve seen him go.
:wub:

I know, I know. Nobody cares about my FF team.
I snagged him at 1.12 in my long-time league with friends last week and was quite happy about it.
 
Hope you’re right everyone, because picking 1.07 in my NFFC rotoworld online championship tonight I went JJ ~> Gibbs.

I’ve done a lot of mocks. That’s the latest I’ve seen him go.
:wub:

I know, I know. Nobody cares about my FF team.
I snagged him at 1.12 in my long-time league with friends last week and was quite happy about it.
That’s most typically where I’ve seen him go.

Occasionally 1.11, sometimes he’ll make it to 2.02

Never seen him go later except when I got him there. To say I’m extremely happy to land 2x 1st round players at 1.07 would be an understatement. lol
 
think i'm drafting both Gibbs and Montgomery
It's not always advisable or possible depending on your draft position. If you draft 2 RBs early, a WR or 2 might the next best players and then Montgomery may have been drafted. Are you willing to draft Montgomery a little early?
I don’t hate it but I don’t love it. If that’s BPA I’ll do it. It’s a BYE-week killer, but there’s upside too.

That said, I had a chance to have Gibbs (2.06) & Monty, and the team 1 pick before me took Monty, so I landed Stevenson instead. I feel better for the diversity, and had them in the same tier. If they’d both made it to me I’d probably have taken Stevenson anyway.
 
I don’t hate it but I don’t love it. If that’s BPA I’ll do it. It’s a BYE-week killer, but there’s upside too.

That said, I had a chance to have Gibbs (2.06) & Monty, and the team 1 pick before me took Monty, so I landed Stevenson instead. I feel better for the diversity, and had them in the same tier. If they’d both made it to me I’d probably have taken Stevenson anyway.
I took Gibbs & Pacheco early (1.14, 2.01) but missed out on both Monty and Stevenson. I got Ford as my 3rd RB expecting him to be serviceable early; missed out on Chubb who went a little later. To get Monty, I would've had to sacrifice a good WR.
 
Eric Woodyard
#Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs tells ESPN that he’s ready to go for Week 1. Said he feels about 98-100% after tweaking his hamstring during camp while running routes. “I’m good, just had a little tweak,” he said. Gibbs said he’s “more confident overall” entering Year 2.
 
Drafted yesterday. 12 teams, I had pick 11. When my pick was up 7 WR's were gone. Barkley & Gibbs were available and I took Barkley. I was hoping for AJ Brown on the comeback but he went along with J Taylor so I took Gibbs. RB-RB reminded me of the good old days.
 
The hamstring was not a factor, but I took Henry at 2.03 over Gibbs in one league. Not my usual style but I kept visualizing all of the goal line goodness.
I was surprised I had my choice but Kelce, Allen, MHJ were the preceding 3 picks.
 
@BobbyLayne

Is Craig Reynolds the clear backup to Gibbs & Monty or does the rookie Vaki have an honest chance to leapfrog him?

I don’t know.

Probably Reynolds for the foreseeable future. Between 6 games at Utah last year when he was a 2-way player + the preseason, Sione has less than 150 offensive snaps.

It’s comical how little experience he has. But they like him a lot. He’s gonna suit up every week because he’s a core special teamer. Not sure he’s ready for anything more than a limited package tailored to his current abilities.

I also don’t think either him or Reynolds will see an uptick if only one RB is hurt. We have 5 games of data from last year - if 1A is out, 1B becomes a bell cow, and vice versa. They're only going to lean heavily on Jah & Monty.
 
The hamstring was not a factor, but I took Henry at 2.03 over Gibbs in one league. Not my usual style but I kept visualizing all of the goal line goodness.
I was surprised I had my choice but Kelce, Allen, MHJ were the preceding 3 picks.

I’m a lions homer and I took Henry 1.11 and garret wilson 2.02 in a non-PPR redraft. Gibbs went a few picks later

I really wanted him this year, but in that format I just couldn’t pull the trigger
 
The hamstring was not a factor, but I took Henry at 2.03 over Gibbs in one league. Not my usual style but I kept visualizing all of the goal line goodness.
I was surprised I had my choice but Kelce, Allen, MHJ were the preceding 3 picks.

I’m a lions homer and I took Henry 1.11 and garret wilson 2.02 in a non-PPR redraft. Gibbs went a few picks later

I really wanted him this year, but in that format I just couldn’t pull the trigger
I had the option between them in my PPR draft and I opted for Jahmyr. I don't love the split time but I love, love, love the offensive line particularly when compared to Henry's.

Gibbs also went before Henry in the FBG Home League. Gibbs RB5 @ 1.10, Saquon (me) RB6 @ 2.01, Etienne RB7 @ 2.04, Jacobs RB8 @ 2.06, Henry RB9 2.07
 
It's been a great past few Gibbs days for me.

I once had him ranked as high as 9 but for past few week's he's settled in at 11. One of my biggest frustrations of drafting season is I could not land him in round two. Was about 40 drafts into the season and not one single time was he available to me in round two which again was particularly frustrating to me because I'd maybe picking like 4 and he'd last till 2.7, then I'd be picking 10 and he'd go 2.2. That kind of thing.

Then a few days ago out of the 8 spot he made it to me at 2.5. I was super happy but then it got better when last night he made it to me at 2.8. Which is close to as late as he's gone in this entire contest which has about 15,000 teams.

The recurring hammy issues are not to be taken lightly, but not sure I've been more pleased with anything this entire drafting season.
 
The hamstring was not a factor, but I took Henry at 2.03 over Gibbs in one league. Not my usual style but I kept visualizing all of the goal line goodness.
I was surprised I had my choice but Kelce, Allen, MHJ were the preceding 3 picks.

I’m a lions homer and I took Henry 1.11 and garret wilson 2.02 in a non-PPR redraft. Gibbs went a few picks later

I really wanted him this year, but in that format I just couldn’t pull the trigger
I had the option between them in my PPR draft and I opted for Jahmyr. I don't love the split time but I love, love, love the offensive line particularly when compared to Henry's.

Gibbs also went before Henry in the FBG Home League. Gibbs RB5 @ 1.10, Saquon (me) RB6 @ 2.01, Etienne RB7 @ 2.04, Jacobs RB8 @ 2.06, Henry RB9 2.07

Yeah PPR id give the nod to Gibbs
 
Through 2 games, he has 124 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. I expect him to get at least 25 carries apiece in the next two games.
 
Outsnapped Montgomery 53 to 30 yesterday. I'm sure that had at least a little something to do with not playing with a lead yesterday. But encouraging nonetheless
 

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