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RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Fell yesterday in drafts from the 1/2 turn to 2.3 and 2.4. I was able to acquire him for Pacheco and drop from 3.9 to 4.4 and two other late round swaps. Hopefully good news breaks so I can consider his handcuff at a reasonably expensive price rather than insanely expensive.
Minor discount, but still interesting to see play out.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Campbell said in morning presser “I think we’re going to be fine “
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
[Colton Pouncy] Dan Campbell says he thinks the Lions will be fine re: injuries to Terrion Arnold, Ennis Rakestraw Jr. and Jahmyr Gibbs. Carlton Davis III is dealing with a hamstring injury. Says there’s a good chance Hendon Hooker plays this weekend. Lighter practice today.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Soo ... "Lions will be fine" because Gibbs is fine? Or Lions will be fine because they have Montgomery?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I can help, I’m fluent in DudeLookHeyMan
“He’s fine.”
TRANSLATION
short term, not serious, will heal , won’t impact game preparation, player won’t miss any time
“We’re going to be without him for awhile, it doesn’t look good. Shoot man, I feel so bad for him, I mean dang you put in months of hard and preparation then something like this happens? But listen, he’s a grinder, he’s already talking about how he’s gonna come be stronger than ever. That’s what I love about him, you can’t keep him down no matter how much adversity he faces. You just can’t, man. That’s how he’s built”
TRANSLATION
Player is either going on IR or just suffered a season ender.
Deamon
Footballguy
He said this???
eighsse2
Footballguy
No, I think that was an example translation.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Per Dan Campbell today, should be back at practice on Sunday
Assuming good health, is this still a 50/50 split? Or do they plan to increase Gibbs' workload?
I think Montgomery has a high cap number next year with nothing guaranteed, which might mean he'll be let go after this season. Do they want to see if Gibbs can handle being a featured back?
I think Montgomery has a high cap number next year with nothing guaranteed, which might mean he'll be let go after this season. Do they want to see if Gibbs can handle being a featured back?
Chaka
Footballguy
No.
They don't need to see that now. Montgomery has legitimate value to the Lions offense, they wouldn't relegate him just to see if Gibbs can handle more.
eighsse2
Footballguy
I expect more opportunities for Gibbs and fewer for Montgomery. But I don't expect those changes to be large numbers. 60-40 is my hopeful guess as a Gibbs owner.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think they would bring in a veteran replacement for Montgomery. I think they view Gibbs more as a weapon than a traditional back. I could see someone like Najee, Javonte or Chubb signing with Detroit.
Yes, they are trying to expand Gibbs role which will include his workload. His lack of availability has been an issue per Ben Johnson in working on ways to utilize him more.
And yes, of course Gibbs will be a feature back. Does it mean he'll be getting 20 carries a game? No but I think he can eventually be a 280-300 touch player, that's a feature back to me.
zoonation
Footballguy
I love Gibbs the player. Supreme game breaking talent. Still don't like him for fantasy relative to draft cost. I don't see the Lions doing anything different with their backs than they did last year given how effective it was. Why would you?
Gibbs is going to be boom/bust this year and that is not what I want in an RB1.
Gibbs is going to be boom/bust this year and that is not what I want in an RB1.
Would you prefer Gibbs or Etienne?
For that matter, would you prefer Gibbs or Montgomery?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Talent is like water, over time it wins.
PPG Season Long
If you think 2023 was the peak and he won’t be better in Y2 and even if he is the coaches won’t change their usage, not sure anything I say will help you make a good decision in your best interests.
PPG Season Long
- Gibbs 16.14 (9th)
- Monty 14.66 (15th)
- Gibbs 9th
- Monty 16th
If you think 2023 was the peak and he won’t be better in Y2 and even if he is the coaches won’t change their usage, not sure anything I say will help you make a good decision in your best interests.
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eighsse2
Footballguy
Your emoji rebus promoted your like reaction to a love reaction.WaterTalent is like water, over time it wins.
PPG Season Long
Crank Score (consistency calculator)
- Gibbs 16.14 (9th)
- Monty 14.66 (15th)
The single largest delta for RBs is Y1 to Y2. Age 22 season, broke out at 18. Elite playmaker on a Top 5 offense with #1 OL.
- Gibbs 9th
- Monty 16th
If you think 2023 was the peak and he won’t be better in Y2 and even if he is the coaches won’t change their usage, not sure anything I say will help you make a good decision in your best interests.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Your emoji rebus promoted your like reaction to a love reaction.WaterTalent is like water, over time it wins.
PPG Season Long
Crank Score (consistency calculator)
- Gibbs 16.14 (9th)
- Monty 14.66 (15th)
The single largest delta for RBs is Y1 to Y2. Age 22 season, broke out at 18. Elite playmaker on a Top 5 offense with #1 OL.
- Gibbs 9th
- Monty 16th
If you think 2023 was the peak and he won’t be better in Y2 and even if he is the coaches won’t change their usage, not sure anything I say will help you make a good decision in your best interests.
happy the typo didn’t distract you
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Damn that is one big water faucet.
Chaka
Footballguy
Inconsistent? He started slow and missed two games. In his last 11 games he averaged 13 carries, 3.5 receptions (4.8 targets/game) 92 yards and a TD per game. He scored in 8 of 11 games.
That's before adding another 238 yards and 3 TDs in three playoff games.
He was the definition of consistent.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
MCDC update on Gibbs (video)
BIRDGANG52
Footballguy
I drew 1.09 in one of my more serious leagues and am considering him there. It's one of those, if I don't take him at #9 he might not be there at #16 type of things.
nittanylion
Footballguy
Love Gibbs. Gibbs to the moon!
Problem for me is that I love Monty, also, and I can't see how he doesn't compromise Gibbs ceiling.
I don't think anyone touches a full season of CMC...however a full season of Breece, Bijan Barkley, Taylor, Henry, and, if I squint my eyes real hard,.maybe Jacobs...could come close, and if CMC gets dinged and misses time, I think they all could compete for overall RB1...
...but as long as Monty is there, getting his, I have a very hard time including Gibbs in that conversation...
...and it just kills me because I'm enamored with the possibility of an unencumbered Gibbs ceiling.
In most of the Nat'l High Stakes Contests, with significant investment $$$ at stake, I just can't draft him at his ADP, and my bankroll isn't big enough to have experimental throwaway Teams like some of the 'name' gamers do.
It makes me sad.
Problem for me is that I love Monty, also, and I can't see how he doesn't compromise Gibbs ceiling.
I don't think anyone touches a full season of CMC...however a full season of Breece, Bijan Barkley, Taylor, Henry, and, if I squint my eyes real hard,.maybe Jacobs...could come close, and if CMC gets dinged and misses time, I think they all could compete for overall RB1...
...but as long as Monty is there, getting his, I have a very hard time including Gibbs in that conversation...
...and it just kills me because I'm enamored with the possibility of an unencumbered Gibbs ceiling.
In most of the Nat'l High Stakes Contests, with significant investment $$$ at stake, I just can't draft him at his ADP, and my bankroll isn't big enough to have experimental throwaway Teams like some of the 'name' gamers do.
It makes me sad.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
We can't see how Gibbs can return the value to justify his ADP. OK....
Could we imagine a world in which Gibbs plays 17 games? Because if he did that last year and maintained the same PPG pace, he would have scored 274.4. RB4
But only 17 RBs managed 200+ touches and played 17 games.
Let's say he misses 2 games again, but scores the same PPT (points per touch.) No improvement from Y1 to Y2, but he's just the same guy. He had 234 touches last year. That's 15.6 per game. If we increase his touches to 17.67, and keep the points per touch the same, - 1.03 - he would score 274.1, RB4.
We can't justify his ADP....because we can't see him staying healthy....or because we can't imagine a world in which his usage increases 2 touches per game?
Is it because only 4 RBs average more than 1 point per touch? He was one of them, along with CMC, Mostert and Achane. Why would he decline? I'm not aware of any data that shows early breakout, high draft capital, efficient RBs decline Y2 from Y1. Same HC, same offense, same offensive coordinator, same QB WR1 RB2 TE1. Offensive line - replaced Jonah Jackson with an upgrade, Kevin Zeitler. There's a reason they are the #1 line in the NFL. The coach is committed to running the ball.
Explain to me why taking Gibbs at RB6 is not green light all the way?
| Rushing | Receiving | Fantasy | ||||||||
Player | Team | G | Att | Yard | TD | Target | Rec | Yard | TD | FPts | FPts/G |
1. Christian McCaffrey | SF | 16 | 272 | 1,459 | 14 | 83 | 67 | 564 | 7 | 391.3 | 24.5 |
2. Breece Hall | NYJ | 17 | 223 | 994 | 5 | 95 | 76 | 591 | 4 | 288.5 | 17.0 |
3. Travis Etienne | JAC | 17 | 267 | 1,008 | 11 | 73 | 58 | 476 | 1 | 278.4 | 16.4 |
4. Rachaad White | TB | 17 | 272 | 990 | 6 | 70 | 64 | 549 | 3 | 267.9 | 15.8 |
5. Raheem Mostert | MIA | 15 | 209 | 1,012 | 18 | 32 | 25 | 175 | 3 | 267.7 | 17.8 |
6. Joe Mixon | CIN | 17 | 257 | 1,034 | 9 | 64 | 52 | 376 | 3 | 265.0 | 15.6 |
7. Kyren Williams | LAR | 12 | 228 | 1,144 | 12 | 48 | 32 | 206 | 3 | 253.0 | 21.1 |
8. Bijan Robinson | ATL | 17 | 214 | 976 | 4 | 86 | 58 | 487 | 4 | 246.3 | 14.5 |
9. Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 15 | 182 | 945 | 10 | 71 | 52 | 316 | 1 | 242.1 | 16.1 |
10. Derrick Henry | TEN | 17 | 280 | 1,167 | 12 | 36 | 28 | 214 | 0 | 238.1 | 14.0 |
11. James Cook | BUF | 17 | 237 | 1,122 | 2 | 54 | 44 | 445 | 4 | 232.7 | 13.7 |
12. Alvin Kamara | NO | 13 | 180 | 694 | 5 | 86 | 75 | 466 | 1 | 227.0 | 17.5 |
17. David Montgomery | DET | 14 | 219 | 1,015 | 13 | 24 | 16 | 117 | 0 | 205.2 | 14.7 |
Could we imagine a world in which Gibbs plays 17 games? Because if he did that last year and maintained the same PPG pace, he would have scored 274.4. RB4
But only 17 RBs managed 200+ touches and played 17 games.
Let's say he misses 2 games again, but scores the same PPT (points per touch.) No improvement from Y1 to Y2, but he's just the same guy. He had 234 touches last year. That's 15.6 per game. If we increase his touches to 17.67, and keep the points per touch the same, - 1.03 - he would score 274.1, RB4.
We can't justify his ADP....because we can't see him staying healthy....or because we can't imagine a world in which his usage increases 2 touches per game?
Is it because only 4 RBs average more than 1 point per touch? He was one of them, along with CMC, Mostert and Achane. Why would he decline? I'm not aware of any data that shows early breakout, high draft capital, efficient RBs decline Y2 from Y1. Same HC, same offense, same offensive coordinator, same QB WR1 RB2 TE1. Offensive line - replaced Jonah Jackson with an upgrade, Kevin Zeitler. There's a reason they are the #1 line in the NFL. The coach is committed to running the ball.
Explain to me why taking Gibbs at RB6 is not green light all the way?
psychobillies
Footballguy
Let's also remember that DC said very clearly going into the season last year that they were going to ease him in because he was a rookie. They wanted him to have legs for the playoffs. He wasn't lying.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
He talked about that in the off-season. First 6 games - you may recall the Shark Pool was freaking out in this thread every week - he was playing too fast. Just flying into the hole without waiting for the play to develop, not seeing where the seam would be, bouncing outside. Beginning with the blowout in Baltimore, he started running with more patience. He exploded on MNF the next week vs the Raiders.
“Man, I’m excited about next year, because we’re going to have that version of Jah right from the get go.”
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
My big concern is that with an improving defense, the Lions might just salt away more games by grinding, and Monty seems better suited to that.
Otherwise I don’t disagree that Gibbs can be a top 5 PPR back, if he stays healthy.
But… he also already has a hammy tweak. And those can flare up.
So yeah - 1. Game script, 2. Health
Selecting him also likely means passing up an AJB or ARSB, and I’d rather have them, but that’s more a personal preference & team build kinda thing. So while I won’t try to convince you not to take him at RB6, I wouldn’t take him ahead of some of the WR.
Again, those are yellow lights, not red.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
1,132 and 13 TDs over just 14 games
This RB likely would have gone over 250 carries had he stayed healthy for all 17 games, he missed a full 3 weeks
Of course I'm talking about Monty at the RB-1B we'll call it now.
They pay him an avg salary of $6M at RB, they could draft a RB in the 3rd or 4th, cost them a lot less and they all seem to believe in what Monty brings to the offense.
Do you see Monty being fazed out this season? The 2 RBs make one of the strongest RB tandems in the NFL
I see big things for Gibbs and love him on the 1/2 turn where I scooped him up in 10 team redrafts. I never really had to make a choice when I wasn't in a position to take him but I am prepared in some of my more serious redrafts, you know the ones that hold them either the night prior to kickoff or during the actual TNF kickoff game, I am prepared to take him higher than his ADP if I feel boxed in during the 1st round. I have a couple RBs I like at Gibbs level or tier. I put Saquon in that tier and I have a couple others but Gibbs should improve on his numbers. He started off pretty slow as I recall, Monty was getting a lot of work early in the season and then was injured.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Users who are viewing this thread
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-After Midnight on a Tuesday, I'd say the interest level is HIGH on Gibbs, don't think you'll have to twist many arms of those with late 1st round picks that zero in on him.
Would you take Gibbs over Hall or Bijan? These are the questions that will decide many leagues
They can't all be Top 5
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Because Jameson Williams is going to be eating at his trough.
Please @me if you reply because I'll be headed back to the Jameson thread.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Appreciate the thoughtful reply. I'll try to match that in kind, but also.....more importantly....I want to ensure that I understand what you mean by rephrasing it - please correct me if necessary - and offering my perspective.
One concern you have is the Lions will shift their offense once they are in the lead because they want to milk the clock.
I am curious how many Detroit games you have watched out of their last 30. I chose that point - Halloween 2022 - because they haven’t lost two games in a row since. Ben Johnson does not become conservative because they’re ahead. He is probably the most unpredictable Offensive Coordinator in the league. They’ll run on 3rd and long, they’ll keep passing whilst leading because they absolutely will not take the foot off the gas. Go look at the play logs in the box scores from comfortable wins (they won by 14 Weeks 3-6 (4x), by 12 week 8, by 25 week 15, by 10 Week 18. Show the sequence in the 3rd/4th quarter that supports your supposition.
You are uncertain about his ability to stay healthy.
I can think of two ways to think about this; 1) how is his durability compared to other RBs around him, and 2) what is his injury?
- CMC
- Breece
- Bijan
- Saquon
- JT
- Kyren
- King Henry
- Achane
- ETN
Per Draft Sharks:
- 11/28/2020 - as a true freshman, Gibbs injured his left shoulder vs. Duke in 2020 while attending Georgia Tech. He subsequently missed the remainder of the season (2 games.)
- 11/12/2022 - Gibbs sprained his ankle in November 2022 vs. Ole Miss while attending Alabama. He went on to miss the next game but returned later that season.
10/6/202210/6/2023 Gibbs' hamstring flared up shortly before Week 5 vs. the Panthers. He subsequently sat out the contest and missed two games (weeks 5-6) in total. He played the remaining 11 games + 3 playoff games without incident.- 8/12/2024 Gibbs sustained a Thigh Hamstring Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1 - same general injury as 2023, though we have no indication if it’s the same leg or how the severity compares. But when suffering a similar injury last year, he returned to play in 16 days. Campbell said he’ll be back at practice next Wednesday - August 28, 16 days after getting hurt at the Monday night practice.
Chance of Injury in 2024
62.6%% chance misses at least 2 quarters
Chance of Injury per Game
5.6%1- 17√1-% Inj/Season
Projected Games Missed 2024
1.40Durability
5.00Ability to produce despite relatively minor injuries. 5 being most durable.
FWIW, HSG, I have him ranked behind St Brown and AJ Brown in full PPR.
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BlackCrowes
Footballguy
12 indoor games, i like that
@Chicago, @SF in the playoffs, don't like that.
@Chicago, @SF in the playoffs, don't like that.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Either Bama played a whole lot of games in 2022 or the second 2022 is 2023. Either way you point stands.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
First, I did specifically say that I believed DET’s defense would continue to improve, and that could lead to more games being salted away.
Pointing to last year would do nothing to substantiate my theory about what could happen this year with an improved defense.
I might be wrong. Maybe DET’s defense will regress, and games will be closer or they’ll be playing from behind. I concede that as a possibility.
Gibbs is also a little undersized. It was a concern coming into the NFL, and he missed 3 games last year. So it’s a concern. How much more or less likely he is to be hurt than that list you posted is a different question than the one I was answering.
I’m not making any definitive statements here - but you specifically asked for possible reasons Gibbs “isn’t a green light all the way”, and I gave you a few.
Those are my reasons.
But like I said - I see them as “yellow light” not “red light” reasons. I would draft Gibbs early to mid 2nd and hope for the best. He’s a talented dude in a good situation.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
14?
9 at home
@ ARI, DAL, MIN, HOU, IND
Oh
12 during the FF regular season, plus first round; the the two games on grass. The semi-finals will be the lone cold weather game, FF Championship week at the opponent they scored 31 on the road 7 months ago.
Anyway, fair points, I weigh playoffs schedules heavily. If you don’t think the Lions offense can score on anyone you should probably be out on them this year.
Chaka
Footballguy
It's a great question but you don't even need to play that mental exercise. Just look at his last 11 games last season, 14 if you include the playoffs, and you can see that he was a monster.
David Montgomery played in all but two of those games.
His ADP seems easily justifiable.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
This is faulty logic. There is no guarantee that a drafted back will be as good as Montgomery, no matter where he is drafted.
zoonation
Footballguy
Would still rather have Gibbs than Etienne.
WIth Etienne, I see another explosive guy who can do it all on a good offense, but will get 5 more touches a game including GL. If not for Montgomery, it would be no contest. But Montgomery still exists.
Chaka
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
IDK Etienne had great volume but his efficiency was terrible.
In my league from weeks 1-17 Etienne scored 0.2 more points per game than Gibbs. Over the last 11 games Gibbs outscored Etienne by 3.6 ppg.
A lot of overthinking going on in here. Gibbs is a top 5 fantasy running back, plain and simple. Why are we making this hard?
ChiefD
Footballguy
Interesting you chose Packers colors.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
FTP
green means go
HSG says the light is yellow (caution)
fun fact: Patrick Mahomes has never beaten Jared Goff or a Dan Campbell coached team
green means go
HSG says the light is yellow (caution)
fun fact: Patrick Mahomes has never beaten Jared Goff or a Dan Campbell coached team
