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RB Jamaal Williams, NO (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter SaintsInDome2006
- Start date
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
Well, we do have some info from March.
None of this sounds like they are talking about their starting running back.
https://m.packers.com/news/article/packers-have-plans-for-multi-positional-ty-montgomery-b6752e93-21bd-49db-9390-3fdf2d01c03c
“He’s a multi-positional player,” said McCarthy at the NFL Scouting Combine. “He’s a running back, but he gives us great flexibility to use him so many different ways. That won’t change.”
“(Montgomery) has had availability issues every year, but he’s established himself as a multiple-position player,” said McCarthy of Montgomery. “I think he’s really gotten better in his natural run instinct. Obviously what he can do in and out of the backfield is at a high level.
“The two young guys, they don’t have it figured out, either. They both had to fight through injuries to play. That’s why you need more than three running backs.”
“Ty is a very, very versatile player,” Gutekunst said. “I think having a guy like that (means) we can kind of plug him in where we need him. I thought he was an outstanding running back. Making that transition is not an easy one, and I thought he did it fairly quickly.”
bostonfred
Footballguy
I'm more interested in Williams with Rodgers than what Jones did without him. Jones seems to be more able to create on his own. I have already stipulated that Jones is a better runner. What I don't know is whether a healthy Williams playing with Rodgers is any good as a runner.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
It would be logical to assume that the defense will be less focused on stopping the run with Rodgers as the QB instead of Hundley. I don't think anyone thinks otherwise, but I suppose you never know. Seems pretty common sense to me.
When Rodgers was healthy he seemed to like having Jones in the line up. Jones played well either way.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Why do you keep posting about this, it's not relevant to anything in this thread. If you want someone to tell you to take it go post in the AC forum.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
It's definitely relevant to Williams as it is info on his current dynasty value or perceived value, but thanks for playing.Hankmoody said:
What's your point? Some more simple facts: Jamaal was drafted first, he was ahead of Jones on the depth chart throughout training camp and the beginning of the season. In week 4, when Ty got injured the first time, Jamaal was the 1st RB to take a snap and... wait for it... Aaron Jones was the third option in that game.PhantomJB said:
More simple facts: Jamaal got injured, but didn't miss a game. Jones proved more injury prone. Jones has been arrested and may face disciplinary action. Even when healthy, Jones only got a handful of snaps while Jamaal shouldered the load. Jamaal played 443 snaps to 236 for Jones.
Someone else posted that people are gaga over a guy with 3.6 ypc, but that's really not the case. People just want to predict who is going to start - nothing more, nothing less. I've already done several redrafts and I'm trying to combo Williams and Jones (sorry other guy who thinks Ty is still the starter - I think that's the longest shot out of all three right now and McCarthy's statements about Ty point to him being more OW than RB) but I'll let someone overbid me on Jones while I'm willing to pay a bit more than AAV for Williams.
And it's not because of his 3.6 ypc or a dislike of Jones or Montgomery. It's because I'm trying to read the tea leaves. I don't know how people can look at the 2nd half of last year and not predict Williams as the starter. I was wary of free agency and the draft, but now that those two things have passed, I feel pretty good about JW being the lead back. He doesn't have to be some sort of all world talent. Anybody with replacement level starter talent who leads the GB backfield in touches, including goal line, is going to have a lot of value. Bickering about ypc doesn't change anything. Besides, I guarantee you he does better than 3.6 with Rodgers behind center. Lacy held a lot of value as a rookie with 4.1 ypc. All Williams has to do is grind out tough yards, keep Rodgers clean, and provide a reliable outlet in the passing game - all things he proved capable of in his extended use last year. Jones has not shown an ability to do any of those three things (although I do think he's a plus pass catcher). Jones looks like the ideal CoP back, but fantasy football people love to extrapolate some small sample ypc numbers...
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
When was this? Jones was either injured during the game, out for the game, or listed as questionable on the injury report for every game from week 10 on except for week 15.
You're right that Williams is much more likely to be the starter, but I'm still probably more interested in Jones. Like you said a guy doesn't have to be particularly good to be a good fantasy player if he's Green Bay's starting running back. The problem is we've all been chasing guys that aren't particularly good but might be Green Bay's starting running back for the last 10 years, and ultimately if they're not very good Green Bay doesn't keep them as their starting running back very long.
I'm not talking about the remainder of Williams' rookie contract here. That is extremely generous as a ceiling, much less a floor. If Williams is the starter then that's great, maybe you get a solid fantasy RB2 for 8-16 games before he's replaced by the next dart throw draft pick. At least with Jones if he does win the job he might actually be a good enough runner to be a good player and hold on to the job, and do something special with it.
I guess in the end it comes down to aggressive vs. conservative fantasy owners. I'd rather a small chance that Aaron Jones is the next big thing than a pretty decent chance that Williams is the next short term fantasy RB2 who has the occasional spurt of fantasy relevance.
I don't put a ton of stock in injury reports, especially for the Packers. He didn't look hurt on his one carry in week 13.
I don't expect you to care about this, because I certainly don't care about anyone else's eyeball tests, but Jones looks like a poor man's Abdullah to me. And I'm an Abdullah fan so that's not a bad thing. I just don't see Abdullah's yards after contact with Jones (not something I expected from Abdullah, but he was in the top 5 during the first half of last year). If you watch Jones, he consistently goes down on first contact. I think JW's willingness to take on contact and ability to break tackles fits the GB game plan better than a guy who can make a DB miss on the occasion he gets to the 2nd level. And if Jones spends the next 3 years as a CoP back, nobody is going to make him a lead back in free agency. Even if he gets a shot, I don't think he's good enough to become the next big thing.
I think JW is more than safe for 16 games and if he is successful, he should get another year before they draft a potential replacement (remember dart throws don't always hit).
PhantomJB said:
The point is pretty simple, really.What's your point? Some more simple facts: Jamaal was drafted first, he was ahead of Jones on the depth chart throughout training camp and the beginning of the season. In week 4, when Ty got injured the first time, Jamaal was the 1st RB to take a snap and... wait for it... Aaron Jones was the third option in that game.
The poster claimed that the Packers chose Williams over Jones every single time and...wait for it...my post clearly proved that wasn't the case.
ZWK
Footballguy
Here is a summary of GB's running back rotation last year (updating a post I made during the season):
Weeks 1-3: Montgomery as the workhorse, occasionally spelled by Williams, with Jones buried on the depth chart
Week 4: Montgomery starts out as the workhorse but gets injured, Williams takes over as the workhorse and gets injured, Jones takes over as the workhorse
Weeks 5-7: Jones as the workhorse, occasionally spelled by Montgomery, with Williams buried on the depth chart
Week 8 bye
Week 9: committee mess with Jones leading in touches, Montgomery leading in snaps, and Williams involved a bit too
Week 10: Jones starts out as the workhorse but gets injured, Montgomery takes over as the workhorse and gets injured, Williams takes over as the workhorse
Weeks 11-12: Williams as the workhorse, occasionally spelled by Mays, with Jones & Montogmery out with injuries
Weeks 13-17: Williams as the workhorse, occasionally spelled by Jones, with Montgomery out with an injury
So each of the 3 backs was ahead of each of the others at some point (UPDATE: this is actually false - Williams was never ahead of Montgomery when both were active), and each had some time as the workhorse. Yet GB went with a single workhorse back rather than a committee for 15 out of 16 games (though in 2 other games the workhorse role changed mid-game due to injury). Williams ended the season as the workhorse, and had the most weeks in that role.
Weeks 1-3: Montgomery as the workhorse, occasionally spelled by Williams, with Jones buried on the depth chart
Week 4: Montgomery starts out as the workhorse but gets injured, Williams takes over as the workhorse and gets injured, Jones takes over as the workhorse
Weeks 5-7: Jones as the workhorse, occasionally spelled by Montgomery, with Williams buried on the depth chart
Week 8 bye
Week 9: committee mess with Jones leading in touches, Montgomery leading in snaps, and Williams involved a bit too
Week 10: Jones starts out as the workhorse but gets injured, Montgomery takes over as the workhorse and gets injured, Williams takes over as the workhorse
Weeks 11-12: Williams as the workhorse, occasionally spelled by Mays, with Jones & Montogmery out with injuries
Weeks 13-17: Williams as the workhorse, occasionally spelled by Jones, with Montgomery out with an injury
So each of the 3 backs was ahead of each of the others at some point (UPDATE: this is actually false - Williams was never ahead of Montgomery when both were active), and each had some time as the workhorse. Yet GB went with a single workhorse back rather than a committee for 15 out of 16 games (though in 2 other games the workhorse role changed mid-game due to injury). Williams ended the season as the workhorse, and had the most weeks in that role.
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Oh well in that case, congratulations on being pedantic. It makes zero difference in the actual discussion at hand, but you did catch him in a minor slip. The record has been updated to show that Jamaal Williams was briefly third in line after losing his spot due to injury. The fact remains that JW was ahead of Jones every step of the way - draft, OTAs, training camp, preseason, regular season - until injuries clouded the situation. Then he closed out the year as the workhorse, averaging over 20 touches per game for the last 8 games.
While everyone suffered injuries that season, Jones missed more time while playing fewer snaps than JW. He was also arrested. You really think he's going to leap frog JW in the offseason? Feels like wishful thinking to me.
I get it if people prefer Jones* as a player, but we're not trying to determine who is the better prospect. We're trying to determine who the Packers will elect to give the most touches to. The signs clearly point to JW. Nobody is saying he's a stone cold lock for the job, but it's silly to act like he's not the most likely.
*I obviously don't dislike Jones or I wouldn't be looking to handcuff JW with him in my redrafts.
Even if you like JW more than Drake, you should ask for more back. Drake has much more perceived value.
bostonfred
Footballguy
If you aren't sure if they should be in the same tier, consider this
1 - if my guy does well will he still be the starter next year? Long term?
2 - if my guy is in a committee, will he be the guy who gets catches and touchdowns?
3 - if my guy loses the starting job competition, will he still have trade value?
I like Williams but I lean slightly towards drake on those. I see drake as having a slightly better chance at 1 and 3, while Williams is slightly better on 2.
If you have them in the same tier and no way to distinguish between them, take the one with higher trade value. Shop drake around, ask for a little more than you think he's worth, and let your first counter be "what if I gave you Williams instead". If you're not comfortable with either one, try to bundle them with something to get someone you are comfortable with.
Personally I think drake has slightly higher trade value.
If you don't intend to trade either one, and really think they're 100% equal, then make the trade. You're always better off being known as a guy who makes fair trades, and the more "even" trades you make, the less people will remember you as the guy who won that trade that time.
You could also offer a counter, but I personally find the future goodwill more valuable than countering for Williams and a pick. I get a lot of trade offers.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I would take Drake fairly easily over any of the GB backs. Both Drake and JW finished last year as the workhorse. One looked serviceable and the other looked like he might actually be a good football player.
In a redraft league their value would be closer.
In a redraft league their value would be closer.
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Thank goodness the galaxy has an animated comic superhero who can run real fast to come to aid of people who make incorrect assertions.
Since you are super into being pedantic, I guess I should point out that Ninja Gaiden was a Nintendo game, not a comic.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
In Matt Waldman's 2017 RSP his top 2 Underrated RB Prospects were Williams and Jones
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
Casting Couch
Footballguy
Coach Mike McCarthy said the Packers will have a "running back by committee."
"We feel like we've got three guys that have all done, but they haven't done it over a long period of time," McCarthy said, "so I think it's just practical thinking from that position and realizing that it's a very demanding position." McCarthy did leave open the possibility of one player emerging as the clear option, but it sounds like all of Jamaal Williams, Ty Montgomery, and Aaron Jones will have a role to open the season, terrible news for each player's fantasy prospects. Perhaps someone emerges in camp, but this is shaping up as a situation to avoid.
"We feel like we've got three guys that have all done, but they haven't done it over a long period of time," McCarthy said, "so I think it's just practical thinking from that position and realizing that it's a very demanding position." McCarthy did leave open the possibility of one player emerging as the clear option, but it sounds like all of Jamaal Williams, Ty Montgomery, and Aaron Jones will have a role to open the season, terrible news for each player's fantasy prospects. Perhaps someone emerges in camp, but this is shaping up as a situation to avoid.
Boston
Footballguy
Smart move...all 3 look like they can play but it remains to be seen just how good each 1 is...play all 3 and if 1 starts to assert himself than he goes to the head of the line...
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Football Jones
Footballguy
As bad as we FFers want one to emerge, sometimes there's not a true feature back on the roster & the coaching staff prefers to specialize. Some coaches will make their best RB the bell cow regardless of how talented he is. There have been a ton of mediocre RBs who have produced in FF.
Sounds like the Packers are planning to go with a 3-headed RBBC & do the specialization thing. They each do different things well so at this point, I think we've got to assume it's going to be a mess.
I believe JW or Jones could emerge this season, but long-term, it's likely the Packers will go after a top rookie or FA in the near future.
Sounds like the Packers are planning to go with a 3-headed RBBC & do the specialization thing. They each do different things well so at this point, I think we've got to assume it's going to be a mess.
I believe JW or Jones could emerge this season, but long-term, it's likely the Packers will go after a top rookie or FA in the near future.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
GB has never used rbbc in the McCarthy era. except maybe for the fat lacy/starks year because they had no choice
I'll believe it when I see it
I'll believe it when I see it
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I don’t disagree at all but for right now I’m going to have to project an even split across the board. It’s a group whose risk and value are built into the current ADP they carry. If you can find a way to carry all three, more power to you. It’s worth it. Probably will be THE situation to put teams as clear front runners towards playoff contention.
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
I’ll still take Williams as the biggest of the 3 and likely goal line guy in what should be a high scoring offense. Monty can be dynamic but probably would benefit from limiting his touches. He’d be a great 3rd down back. That leaves jones as either the between the 20s guy or cop behind Williams, or earns the starting job.
After a little research it seems Monty is the biggest of the three, so I’m still posting but I don’t know wtf to make if that backfield. Makes me feel a little worse about moving MT for Reek/jw, so go jammal.
Conan Troutman
Footballguy
He never really got them healthy at the same point though. But I agree that McCarthy prefers a feature back or at least a clear order. Right now, I'd expect that to be Williams, as he's simply the best in pass pro and McCarthy can't afford Rodgers going down again, as his job is on the line this year as well. That said, if any of the other guys can improve in pass pro, all bets are off. Who knows, maybe Mays runs away with the job in camp.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm not sure that this is true. I guess it depends on how we define RBBC. Some of it is injury related but touches have been distributed between 2-3 RBs throughout McCarthy's tenure in Green Bay. The only seasons he used a workhorse back were 2013-2014 with Eddie Lacy, 2008-2009 with Ryan Grant and 2006 with Ahman Green- otherwise it looked like RBBCs every other season. And even when he used a workhorse, other backs were mixed in (naturally) and he still would give specialty backs like John Kuhn goal-line carries https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/2006.htm
So only 5 out of 12 seasons did he ride a workhorse back. Perhaps his ultimate desire would be to ride a workhorse, but I think it depends on his personnel. This season with three below average options (by NFL standards), all with different skill sets and strengths/weaknesses I can see him using all 3 unless one of them steps up and takes control (which is possible).
Is Rodgers injury related to pass protection? I may be remembering it wrong, but I recall it being on a play where Rodgers had time, he was just rolling ot and held onto it until the last possible second. More a fluke injury, than anything that was the fault of blocking.
Williams strikes me as the least talented of the trio, but he was the one who stayed healthiest. Just a gut feel, but if everyone stays healthy(when does that ever happen) that Williams is just a backup, and Jones starts, with Montgomery working as a 3rd down RB.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
That's how I remember it as well. Rodgers has very good (perhaps illegal if you google Packers holding) pass pro. But they can't hold guys off forever.
They were all healthy to start the season and Montgomery was getting close to 90% of the snaps.
Streetduck
Footballguy
The other two were also rookies who he had not seen play yet, this is a new year and any of the three could win the job.
I agree. I'm just casting doubt upon this idea that there will be a true RBBC. This discussion is predicated on one small amount of coach speak and he even left it open that one guy could emerge. I suspect he's just playing coy during the competition, but will eventually settle on one guy to get over 60% of the snaps. Probably closer to 80% if last year is any indication.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Yes, he has worked alternative backs in throughout his career. I don't necessarily call that RBBC. In the end, they've always had "their guy" that got the majority of the carries unless injury or being fat and ineffective was the issue.
I would call a full blown RBBC of each back getting 6-8 carries a game, rendering each meaningless from a fantasy perspective. Kind of like the Giants the last few years.
I specifically remember a quote last year around this time from the coaches (I think the RB coach) stating that they, especially McCarthy, don't want to use a RBBC and prefer 1 lead back.
I fully expect things to start out RBBC unless a RB claims the job in training camp. At this point, they can't say one back is going to be the guy because they don't know. At this point it truly is RBBC. I fully expect Ty Montgomery to be used in a lot of passing roles out of the slot/backfield when healthy and for one of the other two RBs to emerge as "the guy." Again, just going off of history. I don't expect McCarthy to change his philosophy... believe me, I've been wishing for it for years in other areas as have many GB fans.
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Conan Troutman
Footballguy
I'm not sure, but I don't think it matters. My point was that McCarthy will be extra careful to keep Rodgers healthy this year, especially when the games aren't that close. So unless the other guys improve, I think Williams will be the back he'll trust the most.
Yes to start the season, mainly because he was the veteran. Those weren't enough games and they came too early to draw any strong conclusions. But generally, I'd say that McCarthy prefers to have a go-to option, especially for the no-huddle offense, and likes to rotate the other guys in as he sees fit and isn't afraid to ride the hot hand. That he's talking about a committee in June doesn't mean much, just that that the competition is open and everyone will get his shot.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
I know that we have been debating on who will end up as the guy as RB for Packers in past months between Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones, and Ty Montgomery but here's a link that may be telling on Williams' exceptional pass-blocking ability.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I am sorry but those stats you pulled are VERY misleading.
- Average = actually is the NFL average so no complaints
- Not Good = WRONG
Of the NFL RBs who qualified for the list only 4 ranked lower which is the good number so in terms of NFL players who had the minimum number of carries to qualify for the list his numbers are FANTASTIC!.
- Almost like pass blocking is a LEARNED TRAIT = those are numbers for ONE GAME last year in week 11
- First 56 carries without breaking 10 yards impressive = Making a case with a negative stat that has to go back to worthless preseason stats is it isn't impressive at all
First 8 games
- 11 attempts or 1.375 rushes per game
- 34 yards
- Average per attempt - less than one yard per attempt or .32 yards per rush
Second half of the season - Last 8 games when he average more than 1.375 rushes per game
- 132 attempts
- 16.5 attempts per game
- 522 yards
- 3.95 yards per attempt
The 3.95 yards per carry isn't great but it was .02 yards off of LeSean McCoy's 3.97 yards per carry and .07 from LeVeon Bell's 4.02 yards per carry and his average per carry beat out seven other 'feature' backs last year who lead their team in rushing and was close to six others.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Most of what you wrote is wrong but justify it by your feels all you want. Btw the pass block rating was from COLLEGE, where he was both horrible in both advanced statistics rushing and blocking. You want Williams are a turd shuffling volume play, fine. Let’s let the rubber meet the road though and stop trying to justify him as a good back. He has one rush over 15 yards in his 153 carries last year. Good luck to the members of this board that continue to push the narrative that he’s good because some other bs narrative about pass blocking being the key to everything. Mike Tolbert is great at pass blocking, make sure you go add him to every one of your fantasy teams too.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Also, Le’veon Bell is the ultimate outlier and I have written about him previously. He’s the only back I could find who had as awful a rookie season as Williams in regards to not being able to breakaway at all. He also dropped 25 lbs after his first season (a fact I’m sure FBG weight lifters will deny as possible). Where is Williams supposed to go at 6’0 211 with an already bad BMI and middling measurables?
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Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Rob Kelley on 168 carries his rookie season (2016) had 9 rushes over 15 yds.
Samaje Perine on 175 carries his rookie season had 4 rushes over 15 yds.
Tion Green had 1 carry over 15 yards on 45 carries, less than the 56 Williams was at before he cracked 7 yards.
Mike Tolbert had 4 carries over 15 yards on 66 carries in 2017.
Matt Asiata, in 2016, had 4 carries of 15 yds or more on 121 carries.
Samaje Perine on 175 carries his rookie season had 4 rushes over 15 yds.
Tion Green had 1 carry over 15 yards on 45 carries, less than the 56 Williams was at before he cracked 7 yards.
Mike Tolbert had 4 carries over 15 yards on 66 carries in 2017.
Matt Asiata, in 2016, had 4 carries of 15 yds or more on 121 carries.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Most of what you linked is wrong and I never said Jamaal was a top back so don't put your words into my mouth and cop an attitude about it.
- Average - 32% of Jamaal Williams’ 153 carries gained 5+. The NFL average is 32%.
- Not Good - Everything I wrote is correct.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DZ4JI6JW4AA1DV9.jpg
Everyone can see the list and what I said is right. Jamaal is 5th from the bottom. The only NFL backs who qualified for the list who ranked better were LeVeon, Ingram, Kamara, and Zeke. He was FANTASTIC!
- Pass blocking - I mistakenly read from the link below so my bad.
- Real Next Gen Stats - come from week 11
FollowFollow @MattHarmon_BYB
Fewest average yards gained after defenders closed within 1 yard in Week 11
-------------------------------------------------
If you don't like Jamaal it means nothing to me. Don't make false claims on what I said and if you post a link and misinterpret it then people can correct you and they should.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
The JJ Zachariason link did support Williams as someone who can advance past the line of scrimmage. Fair enough, and my bad for reviewing it incorrectly. Still doesn’t take away from his plodding which is evidenced by his inability to breakaway. Digging up some advanced statistics his breakaway run rate was .7%, league average was 4.61%, his juke rate was 14%, league average 23.94% and his yards created per carry was .67, league average 1.27.
This is not a long term dynasty option to me and I’m not sure how comfortable I would be in redraft holding him specifically as a volume only play. When you hold him you are praying form some intangible, immeasurable characteristic props him up and is valued more so than two other backs who are better in most every statistical measurement available.
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Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Thank you for an excellent reply.
Jamaal isn't my personal preference for a RB. I prefer big-play break-away RBs and he is the opposite.
I used to go after only big--pay RB types but got burned after investing in smaller speedy guys who couldn't handle the load and/or got injured etc. I drafted Jamaal and then dropped him when he struggled but then picked him up again and he paid off for me last year. He wasn't great but he paid the bills after DJ got injured and other guys didn't come through.
I'm not high on him but I like having an insurance back like him in my dynasty fold.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Bumping this...
In the last week, we’ve heard rumblings that Williams could make that Year 2 jump. McCarthy has talked him up quite a bit. As a rookie, he graded out highly as a pass blocker which I suspect is a priority and he’s a good receiver out of the backfield.
Pass Blocking Chops...
He may not have ‘special running ability’...but he seems to do a lot of things well. Has the trust of Rodgers and the coaching staff. The #1 RB in GB should be pretty coveted commodity in FF, yet he’s going RB30. What am I missing?
In the last week, we’ve heard rumblings that Williams could make that Year 2 jump. McCarthy has talked him up quite a bit. As a rookie, he graded out highly as a pass blocker which I suspect is a priority and he’s a good receiver out of the backfield.
Pass Blocking Chops...
He may not have ‘special running ability’...but he seems to do a lot of things well. Has the trust of Rodgers and the coaching staff. The #1 RB in GB should be pretty coveted commodity in FF, yet he’s going RB30. What am I missing?
I think its all the rookie year yards per carry. I mean, I'm with you, I think he should be at least 5 spots higher, maybe 10. But I think people see that he had the lowest YPC out of the trio of him, Jones and Montgomery, and that those two needed to get hurt for Williams to get his shot, and assume he's not good, or long for the job.
Like you said, he's a good blocker, a good receiver, and he doesn't fumble, and perhaps most importantly hasn't been injury prone. The best ability is availability.
