The biggest concern for Williams and Carter is adjusted college competition. Many of the ACC defenses were bad, which could lead to over-rating. Williams broken tackle rate is amazing.
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RB Javonte Williams, DAL (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Zyphros
- Start date
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I have no idea about any kind of correlation between college and the pros in terms of whether a RB who breaks a lot of tackles in college will break a lot of tackles in the NFL or not. But it was suggested upthread that such a statistic might actually be considered a bad thing, as if breaking tackles suggests they couldn't *just* elude them in the first place.
Well, here are the top 10 RBs last year in the NFL in terms of broken tackles. Not sure how they did in college but this list is pretty impressive:
Henry 112
Cook 106
Kamara 87
Jacobs 84
Robinson 79
Chubb 78
Hunt 74
Davis 72
Zeke 69
Taylor 64
I have to give honorable mention to my boy Montgomery coming in at 11 and Gibson at 13. Every single name on this list is/was a top performer in FF or NFL.
Well, here are the top 10 RBs last year in the NFL in terms of broken tackles. Not sure how they did in college but this list is pretty impressive:
Henry 112
Cook 106
Kamara 87
Jacobs 84
Robinson 79
Chubb 78
Hunt 74
Davis 72
Zeke 69
Taylor 64
I have to give honorable mention to my boy Montgomery coming in at 11 and Gibson at 13. Every single name on this list is/was a top performer in FF or NFL.
The list should be adjusted for number of carries and receptions. Henry had almost 400 while Davis was around 225.
I read somewhere that the sheer number of broken tackles isn't quite indicative, but broken tackles rate can be.
From that perspective, Javonte was still best in college football with a 47% broken tackles rate.
So every time a guy went to tackle this dude, there was a 50/50 shot of succeeding lol
Marauder
Footballguy
I don't think that means much. It stands to reason that the RBs who get the most touches will have the most broken tackles.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
The point is that you can't say breaking tackles is a bad thing.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
The same data set can be sorted by juke rate, or broken tackles per attempt. On that metric:
Chubb, Kamara, Davis, Hunt, Dobbins, Cook, Moss, Henry, Gibson, Harris from 1st to 10th from 37.9% to 28.2%. Then Jacobs, Robinson and Gaskin. All studs except Moss and Harris but that *might* be about the way they're used. Dobbins needs the ball more.
Chubb, Kamara, Davis, Hunt, Dobbins, Cook, Moss, Henry, Gibson, Harris from 1st to 10th from 37.9% to 28.2%. Then Jacobs, Robinson and Gaskin. All studs except Moss and Harris but that *might* be about the way they're used. Dobbins needs the ball more.
nittanylion
Footballguy
Not to hijack, but...Mike Davis? After how things shook out in the NFL Draft, that guy has the potential to reallly outperform his ADP.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
nittanylion
Footballguy
I'm a Gordon owner in 14-Team $$$ Dynasty, Super Flex. We opted to punt the 2020 Season due to C19 (2020 would have been our 20th year, and we didn't want to mess with the integrity of the League/history, plus there's a boatload of $ on the line - not for everyone, but the decision worked for us).
As such, we held an NBA-style Draft Lottery in April to determine Rookie/UFA Draft order, and I lucked into the 1.02 and 2.01 (we held a separate lottery for each of the 5 rounds). So I have 2 and 15. I am very involved with everyone from 1.03 to 1.08 trying to gauge how far I can move down and still get JWilliams. I very much want the tandem. Love Gordon, and think he's still useful for a few Seasons, and think JW is the best back in this class, in the best potential situation. Hope I thread the needle. The way my guys Draft and the way our League scores, every QB is going in the 1st, just a matter of when.
As such, we held an NBA-style Draft Lottery in April to determine Rookie/UFA Draft order, and I lucked into the 1.02 and 2.01 (we held a separate lottery for each of the 5 rounds). So I have 2 and 15. I am very involved with everyone from 1.03 to 1.08 trying to gauge how far I can move down and still get JWilliams. I very much want the tandem. Love Gordon, and think he's still useful for a few Seasons, and think JW is the best back in this class, in the best potential situation. Hope I thread the needle. The way my guys Draft and the way our League scores, every QB is going in the 1st, just a matter of when.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Repeat after me, "Mike Boone is ZERO threat to take meaningful snaps away from anyone."
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I wouldn't call Melvin Gordon and Williams a crowded backfield. The other guys on that depth chart don't really apply.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Agreed totally in dynasty.
Redraft, Gordon might be a value (but yeah his value dropped)
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
What a terrible article.
1. Bringing up Denver RBs of the past relates more to the shanahan/kubiak coaching philosophy than having anything to do with playing in Denver.
2. Claiming “it’s easy to project Boone as the 3rd down back” is laughable. He has 9 career targets. Gordon on the other hand has been a competent receiver out of the backfield. I think the veteran Gordon makes a lot more sense on 3rd down, which could open up more work on early downs for Williams.
1. Bringing up Denver RBs of the past relates more to the shanahan/kubiak coaching philosophy than having anything to do with playing in Denver.
2. Claiming “it’s easy to project Boone as the 3rd down back” is laughable. He has 9 career targets. Gordon on the other hand has been a competent receiver out of the backfield. I think the veteran Gordon makes a lot more sense on 3rd down, which could open up more work on early downs for Williams.
rockaction
Footballguy
I roster Williams now, and I don't think he's displacing Gordon at the beginning, nor towards the end. As long as Gordon stays healthy, which is a big if, the job seems likely his unless I'm massively underestimating Williams. I don't know. I see Gordon as a faster player with a more traditional running back build.
We shall see. Hope I'm wrong.
We shall see. Hope I'm wrong.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
In the 9 games they played together last year, Gordon and Phillip Lindsay had 123 and 118 carries, respectively. The OC hasn't changed.
If Gordon shared so many carries with a guy the Broncos unceremoniously kicked to the curb, doesn't it stand to reason Gordon would share at least as many with a guy the Broncos traded up for in the 2nd round? ...who ostensibly is a better fit for Shurmur's system than Lindsay?
rockaction
Footballguy
Pookie? Isn't that a Garfield character? Pooky and Nermal. Yep, Pooky is Garfield's teddy bear. Why the #### I know this and not the basic plot to MacBeth will certainly go down as a character flaw the next time somebody takes my inventory.
Other great Pookies are...
list pls
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
This definitely thickens the plot. I sure hope he's not using that object that the new slang refers to.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
He keeps falling down the redraft boards. Got him at 6.10 yesterday. I've been actively avoiding him in the 5th (which I think is absurd value in it's own) because I took too much of him there already, but then he falls into the 6th and I have to. I'm a big believer but I am trying to diversify and I can't.
I think all it takes is that one blurb to gain a little traction and his fall will reverse course but I've been puzzled as to why he's been falling in the first place? I've noticed it in redrafts for certain and I had one dynasty rookie draft that started later then the previous 7, but just a week later. In the first 7 I think he went 5th in all, maybe 4th in one. Then a week later he goes all the way to pick 8. That's when i started trying to find out why he was falling and I never could come up with a reason.
Also agree that 5th round is plenty good value on it's own, passable value because other good players on the board possibly at positions of higher need but that value becomes very hard to pass as you get into the mid 6th or later. I took him at 6.6 a few days ago as my RB5(can start 4-FFPC) when I had no WR's on my team. Just could not pass that up.
My guess is give that blurb a few days to sink and mulling him in the 6th round will be a thing of the past.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Does anybody know how reliable Ryan O’Halloran is as a media source in Denver?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
He's no Cecil Lammey
Been around awhile, third year with the Denver Post. Covered the Washington Redskins for eight years at The Washington Times & the Jacksonville Jaguars for six years at The Florida Times-Union.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I love his redraft value, especially if you are willing to be patient. However, reports like this could change that. I think he lacks the name value that most rookies get that pushes them up redraft ADP. He’s got kind of a plain name, went to UNC which isn’t a traditional powerhouse, really broke out during the shortened disjointed covid season. He just might not quite be on the radar of the average redraft player quite as much as the typical highly drafted rookie historically has been.
zamboni
Footballguy
I'd be higher on him redraft-wise if it were a lesser proven talent than Gordon ahead of him right now. Gordon is no world beater, but he's been an underrated RB when he's been healthy - actually did pretty well last year when Lindsay became an afterthought.
Eventually this will be Wlliams' backfield when Gordon is gone after this year, but I think it might take some time for the rookie to supplant Gordon absent an injury.
Eventually this will be Wlliams' backfield when Gordon is gone after this year, but I think it might take some time for the rookie to supplant Gordon absent an injury.
lardonastick
Footballguy
My favorite rookie running back after Harris. He's in a great situation:
* Only Melvin Gordon in front of him and not much of note behind him.
* Defense should be much improved and game scripts should favor him.
* Solid (not great but not bad at all) offensive line.
* Lots of weapons around him to prevent teams from stacking the box too often.
Yes, the QB situation isn't ideal but I think he'll be used aggressively and I believe he'll represent one of the better values at the RB position. My projection:
220 carries, 968 yards, 7 touchdowns, 40 targets, 30 receptions, 0 touchdowns
* Only Melvin Gordon in front of him and not much of note behind him.
* Defense should be much improved and game scripts should favor him.
* Solid (not great but not bad at all) offensive line.
* Lots of weapons around him to prevent teams from stacking the box too often.
Yes, the QB situation isn't ideal but I think he'll be used aggressively and I believe he'll represent one of the better values at the RB position. My projection:
220 carries, 968 yards, 7 touchdowns, 40 targets, 30 receptions, 0 touchdowns
Ostro
Footballguy
Hey you guys...
S.T.F.U.
My draft probably isn't gonna happen until the middle of August. I have 1.04, so he should be there... but it would help if you guys... ya know.... S.T.F.U. Let's just delete this thread until the middle of September. Okay? thanks.
edit - fixed the ####
S.T.F.U.
My draft probably isn't gonna happen until the middle of August. I have 1.04, so he should be there... but it would help if you guys... ya know.... S.T.F.U. Let's just delete this thread until the middle of September. Okay? thanks.
edit - fixed the ####
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Make sure we keep this on the first page for Ostro
