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RB Javonte Williams, DAL (2 Viewers)

I will say this, despite that it sort of mutes my fantasy team and has all year. Gordon is a better route runner and receiver of the football right now. Williams is fine, but not as talented in that respect. Gordon tends to find the holes in the defense for checkdowns a little better than Williams does. I don't think we're seeing Gordon go anywhere.

 
rockaction said:
I roster Williams now, and I don't think he's displacing Gordon at the beginning, nor towards the end. As long as Gordon stays healthy, which is a big if, the job seems likely his unless I'm massively underestimating Williams. I don't know. I see Gordon as a faster player with a more traditional running back build.

We shall see. Hope I'm wrong.
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Not sure if this is a victory lap because I can't believe I typed the last sentence of the first paragraph. Wonder what I was thinking?

Nonetheless, this appears to be correct.

 
rockaction said:
Not sure if this is a victory lap because I can't believe I typed the last sentence of the first paragraph. Wonder what I was thinking?

Nonetheless, this appears to be correct.
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As has been said, it was obviously going to be a 50-50 timeshare this year. 
 

The question is the future. 

It seems unlikely that Gordon re-signs in Denver. We have seen enough of Javonte to know they’ll likely move on from Gordon and make Williams the lead back. So the question is how big of a lead back is Williams as far as percentage of RB touches. Who do they plan to use to complement him?
 

 
ryno1980 said:
As has been said, it was obviously going to be a 50-50 timeshare this year. 

The question is the future. 

It seems unlikely that Gordon re-signs in Denver. We have seen enough of Javonte to know they’ll likely move on from Gordon and make Williams the lead back. So the question is how big of a lead back is Williams as far as percentage of RB touches. Who do they plan to use to complement him?
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If I was privy to that info, I'd be on Patreon and likely charging for it. Become my Patreon patron, fantasy football lover!
 

 
rockaction said:
If I was privy to that info, I'd be on Patreon and likely charging for it. Become my Patreon patron, fantasy football lover!
 
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Yeah, I wasn’t asking you the literal question. We don’t know who it will be. Pretty likely it won’t be Gordon though.

 
ryno1980 said:
Yeah, I wasn’t asking you the literal question. We don’t know who it will be. Pretty likely it won’t be Gordon though.
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Heh. I know. I was just in my own headspace about Twitter and becoming a member of every fantasy guy's Patreon or subscription candidate.

I don't know if he'll return. I used to think definitely not, now I'm not as sure.

 
Broncos Briefs: Rookie Javonte Williams’ big plays put him in same category as featured NFL tailbacks
 

Excerpt:

Broncos running back Javonte Williams is taking full advantage of his carry share arrangement with Melvin Gordon.

Williams enters Sunday night’s game at Kansas City with 117 carries (25th in the NFL) for 568 yards (18th), but is tied for sixth among tailbacks in carries of at least 10 yards (20).

Williams’ average of one 10-yard gain per 5.9 rushes is second-best among the group.

The top six: Indianapolis’ Jonathan Taylor (34 10-yard carries/one every 6.1), Cleveland’s Nick Chubb (29/5.2), Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook (26/6.6), San Francisco’s Elijah Mitchell (23/6.2), Cincinnati’s Joe Mixon (21/9.9) and Tennessee’s Derrick Henry (20/10.9).

Williams is the only one of the tailbacks who hasn’t started at least one game. Taylor, Chubb, Cook, Mixon and Henry have started every one of their games and Mitchell has started seven of his eight games.
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ignatiusjreilly said:
I had the same thought, but then I saw something about how he's missed every Wednesday practice all season
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Thats not true at all

The Broncos list him with shoulder and hip injuries. He was on the injury report with the shoulder injury the past two weeks but had full participation in all six of those practices in Weeks 11 and 12.
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jobarules said:
Gordon missed practice again today. Fangio says hes 50/50 for this week's game.
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Definitely making my decision for my flex...letting Pollard stay on the bench as long as Zeke is a go...now its between Barkley and Javonte.  If Gordon sits...firing up Javonte big time.

Funny that I started the year with Aaron Jones, Barkley, Christ Carson and Gaskin...and my 2 RBs and flex this week could be guys I have picked up or made movies for in Eli Mitchell, Mattison, and Javonte.

 
jobarules said:
Gordon missed practice again today. Fangio says hes 50/50 for this week's game.
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Eyebrows definitely raised.

Stinks that Denver doesn't play until Sunday night. I might consider subbing him in for Saquon, but I would need to know by the time the Giants kick off at 1.

It would be super convenient if Gordon could sit out the Detroit game next week, when I have a couple guys on bye. Anyone have the pull to make that happen?

 
ignatiusjreilly said:
Eyebrows definitely raised.

Stinks that Denver doesn't play until Sunday night. I might consider subbing him in for Saquon, but I would need to know by the time the Giants kick off at 1.

It would be super convenient if Gordon could sit out the Detroit game next week, when I have a couple guys on bye. Anyone have the pull to make that happen?
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If Denver insists on playing him with these injuries, they might do it for you

 
This makes it sound like he will be out?  Not official yet but..

Kyle Newman

⁦‪@KyleNewmanDP⁩

#Broncos RB Melvin Gordon not practicing for third straight day, setting up rookie Javonte Williams to own the carries for first time all year on Sunday in KC. Mike Boone will be secondary RB

12/3/21, 1:04 PM
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Question now is, assuming we don't get any additional information by Sunday morning, do I start him over Saquon? I hadn't even really considered the question because I just assumed Gordon would be playing, but now I'm giving it serious thought.

 
If Gordon is out are we really confident that Boone won't simply slide into Javonte's role and we'll continue to see roughly a 50:50 split?

 
Broncos RB Javonte Williams set to get 'bulk' of workload vs. Chiefs with Melvin Gordon (hip) doubtful

Excerpt:

The news thrusts Williams into a full-time role with veteran Mike Boone serving as the backup. Fangio noted Williams would "get the bulk" of the workload Sunday against Kansas City.

A second-round pick out of North Carolina, Williams has shown flashes of playmaking ability while working in a rotation with Gordon. The rookie makes quick cuts in tight space, owns vision to find the hole and provides power at the point of contact.

Williams has earned 568 rushing yards and two TDs on 117 carries, with 27 catches for 193 yards and a score.

The rookie has forced 42 missed tackles (second-most in the NFL behind Jonathan Taylor) and averaged 3.57 yards after contact per attempt, sixth-best among backs with at least 43 carries, per Pro Football Focus.

With the Broncos wanting to play keep away from Patrick Mahomes and the high-powered Chiefs offense Sunday, Williams will play a vital role for the Broncos against their division rival.
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I’m the engineer and the conductor on the Javonte Williams hype train this weekend.

Choo-Choo!

 
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Chaka said:
If Gordon is out are we really confident that Boone won't simply slide into Javonte's role and we'll continue to see roughly a 50:50 split?
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Can't see that happening. They know Javonte is a stud. The reason they're giving Gordon so much work is that he's a free agent after the sign who they have no intentions on resigning. Plus, he's still an effective back. So they're getting free usage and don't care about wearing down his tread.  But Boone isn't in either of the others' league. Not saying he won't see the field. But I could easily see 20 touches for Williams.

 
Quakertown Tom said:
Can't see that happening. They know Javonte is a stud. The reason they're giving Gordon so much work is that he's a free agent after the sign who they have no intentions on resigning. Plus, he's still an effective back. So they're getting free usage and don't care about wearing down his tread.  But Boone isn't in either of the others' league. Not saying he won't see the field. But I could easily see 20 touches for Williams.
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I’m not sure this makes sense.

They know Javonte is a stud, but they’re giving   Gordon so much work b/c they don’t care about wearing down his tread.  Presumably to save wear on Javonte’s tread?

But now that Gordon might be out, they are no longer concerned about saving wear on Javonte’s tread?  Or they do care about saving wear on Boone’s tread?  
🤔

 
Because Boone isn’t even close to Gordon in any universe and Javonte is already equal if not better to Gordon. 

Gordon plays because he’s being paid and he is performing well. Having two backs that are competent and can do it all is greater than one. No reason for Gordon not to play. Hes a good player but he's not in the future plans unless it's a serious discount 

 
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Broncos are in the playoff hunt...unless Boone is better than I think he is gotta believe Javonte gets a very healthy uptick in touches this week.

 
This is J Williams opportunity to shine even more with more upticks. I'm in. He starts in two leagues, on DraftKings, and we also play against him this week in a big money league. I am fully expecting a 20 point game. 

 
This is a huge game in regards to his ADP next season IMO. If he goes off as many of us believe he will, this kid is at worst a 2nd round pick next year IMO. He’s flashed all year in small doses and this is our first chance to see him carry the load. Excited to see what he can do! 

 
ffmail4me said:
This is a huge game in regards to his ADP next season IMO. If he goes off as many of us believe he will, this kid is at worst a 2nd round pick next year IMO. He’s flashed all year in small doses and this is our first chance to see him carry the load. Excited to see what he can do! 
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But if he does not it shouldn't damn him.  It's just one game.

I'm excited though.   I have had him on my bench all season waiting for this.  I need him to play well badly

 
Chaka said:
If Gordon is out are we really confident that Boone won't simply slide into Javonte's role and we'll continue to see roughly a 50:50 split?
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I'd be surprised by that. No doubt Boone will have a role(he's got some ability) but in a big divisional game with playoff implications, I'd expect closer to about 70-30 in Williams favor. Boone isn't Gordon, and also hasn't been a part of the offense every week. 

I'm not expecting Javonte to suddenly get 30 carries, but I'm not too worried about Boone. I'd put the over/under for touch counts at 22 for Williams and maybe 8 for Boone, unless the Chiefs take a massive lead early and Denver abandons the run. 

 
I’m kicking myself hard for dealing him for Woods. Got 1 week out of Woods, lost CMC & now I’m down to Mixon, Henderson (ugh) and Chubba next week.

Because of course Gordon got hurt right after I dealt Williams.

You’re welcome. 

 
need2know said:
But if he does not it shouldn't damn him.  It's just one game.

I'm excited though.   I have had him on my bench all season waiting for this.  I need him to play well badly
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Doubtful. I think Williams will be a stud. 

The only concerning thing is whether the Broncos can keep it close enough to lean on the run. If this game gets away from them,  it’ll be hard to see Williams having a huge game. 

 
JohnnyU said:
he will probably get minimal play.  He is useless to everyone except the Williams owner and may be useless to him in most leagues.
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I ma not suggesting anyone grab Boone and certainly not start him. Gordon is very likely back next week.

My question is how much volume does Boone siphon off? I am trying to establish an o/u for Javonte's opportunities this week.

Gordon & Williams average 30 opportunities/game over the last five games (27.5 on the season).

So what do we think the o/u is for Javonte's opportunities and Boone's opportunities?

Is 20 & 10 reasonable? Seems a little high for Boone but I am hesitant to give any RB a 20+ opportunity o/u.

Is this the kind of game, on paper, that leads to more or fewer RB opportunities? Boone seems to be a fine rusher but a very limited receiver out of the backfield, that suggests more than a normal amount (for Den RBs) of targets for Javonte in a game where they should have to put up a lot of points to keep pace. Is five a reasonable o/u for Javonte's targets? Den RBs average 6.4 targets/game over the last five.

Mentally I keep coming to 17 carries & 5 targets for Javonte and maybe 5-8 opportunities for Boone.

 
Here's my projection...

Sum up JW and Gordon's pts for the year, calculate their combined avg ppg and multiply by .8 to account for Boone.

I'll be back after doing the math

16.8 pts in 0.5 ppr

 
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jobarules said:
Here's my projection...

Sum up JW and Gordon's pts for the year, calculate their combined avg ppg and multiply by .8 to account for Boone.

I'll be back after doing the math

16.8 pts in 0.5 ppr
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Add his extreme explosiveness and keeping him in if riding the hot hand and I see 20 points. 

 
jobarules said:
Here's my projection...

Sum up JW and Gordon's pts for the year, calculate their combined avg ppg and multiply by .8 to account for Boone.

I'll be back after doing the math

16.8 pts in 0.5 ppr
Click to expand...


Solid back of the napkin estimate, I like it.

But gotta hope for a positive game script. I am still a believer in the talent on their D but probably a bit much to expect Teddy to hang with Patrick. Is he even close to 100%? Barely got through last week. Their WRs & Fant have been underperforming. Hoping it all comes together for them, I don’t think the Chiefs D is very good.

A lot of things have to go right for Javonte to have another peak game - last week was tremendous but totally different dynamics at play in this game. Most of those things are beyond his direct control. No question he is an incredible runner. I don’t think casual fans realize how many jaw dropping runs he has had this year.

 
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