RB Jerick McKinnon, KC (7 Viewers)

[Football Jones]

I didn't look, but if my memory is correct, didn't the 9ers have a bunch of picks this year?

If so, I'm REALLY surprised their plan going in wasn't to take advantage of the strong RB class & get one of the top guys (& forego giving a relatively big contract to McKinnon).

To do that, I'm thinking Shanahan had to be sky-high on McKinnon & talked Lynch out of doing anything else. I'm sure he pounded the table for McKinnon, but he also did that for Williams the year before. Sometimes HCs aren't nearly as good at evaluating talent as they are coaching it.

It'll be interesting to see what they have in McKinnon & Williams.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

If they really thought they had something in Williams they wouldn't have paid McKinnon.

Freeman caught 4.1 passes a game under Shanahan, so Barrows' estimate of 70 receptions isn't crazy if McKinnon plays the whole season.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'm really leery of McKinnon making a big impact. The 9ers seem to be doing things right, but signing McKinnon to that kind of a contract, especially with an outstanding rookie RB class coming out is VERY questionable, IMO.

They had more cap room then they could have spent and identified McKinnon as the type of RB that would fit their offense. When you use a draft pick on a RB, there is an opportunity cost as well - you can't draft another player that could help your team. All of the good RBs were gone by the end of Round 2 - so the Niners would have needed to spend a quality pick to get one they liked. It's not as simple as you suggest.

 

[menobrown]

The team has significant "outs" after year-1 and year-2.  That's why they had to give up the 12 million in guarantees.

When his numbers were released I broke it down and way I saw his contract was basically a 2 year $18M deal with a team option for next two years.  I did not see it was a one year deal because he'd have to be dreadful since the dead money would $6M to cut him before April 1, 2019 and his salary is $3.75M.

If so, I'm REALLY surprised their plan going in wasn't to take advantage of the strong RB class & get one of the top guys (& forego giving a relatively big contract to McKinnon).

It makes total sense to me.

First on the money, see above. The 49'ers are loaded with cap space, his money is a non-issue.

Second consider what McKinnon does well and what we're hearing about him, his pass catching ability. Then I'll refer back to something that Dirk Koetter said in a post draft interview when he was discussing Ronald Jones. He was asked about Rojo's receiving ability and he said that he could catch simple RB routes but he was a work in progress in passing game and then went on to say that is how he viewed most RB's in this class and said only 1-2 RB's in this class did he not consider a work in progress in the passing game.

 

[Football Jones]

They had more cap room then they could have spent and identified McKinnon as the type of RB that would fit their offense. When you use a draft pick on a RB, there is an opportunity cost as well - you can't draft another player that could help your team. All of the good RBs were gone by the end of Round 2 - so the Niners would have needed to spend a quality pick to get one they liked. It's not as simple as you suggest.

They would have to spend a 2nd, but there are advantages to drafting a younger RB on his rookie contract.

While we don’t know if the rookie will hit, McKinnon is in the same boat. In fact, a top rookie might have an edge with McKinnon not breaking out since being in the league (which can be a negative sign).

I thought where they took Pettis was a great chance to get a top RB prospect. Like I said, Shanahan had to be absolutely sky-high on McKinnon to go the route they did.

Interesting move. I’m curious to see how it plays out.

 

[zeeshan2]

Evan Silva✔@evansilva

Multiple #49ers beat writers noted Jerick McKinnon's highly active passing-game role on Day 1 of OTAs. @mattbarrows suggested McKinnon could catch 70+ balls this year: http://amp.sacbee.com/sports/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/article211662339.html?__twitter_impression=true …

6:53 PM - May 22, 2018

 

[Dr. Octopus]

While we don’t know if the rookie will hit, McKinnon is in the same boat. In fact, a top rookie might have an edge with McKinnon not breaking out since being in the league (which can be a negative sign).

McKinnon came into the league as a converted QB - albeit as a college QB in a pseudo wildcat based offense. I think he did show signs of breaking out last season and looked really good - but then the team turned back to Lat Murray (who is a decent back in his own right).  

Pettis wasn't really on my radar as a prospect so it seemed like a reach at the time, but maybe they really liked him and who knows how other teams felt.

I still think you're missing the larger point though - you thinking the Niners overspent is irrelevant since signing him did not cost them the opportunity of signing some one else since they are flush with cap space - and they provided an out for themselves if he does not work out. They take a minimal cap hit by cutting him next year.

 

[chinawildman]

Why is it that whenever people talk about RBs in the passing game, they kinda just assume that if they can catch and pass block, they'll be great in the receiving game?

When we talk about receivers the ability to run crisp consistent routes and get separation is valued equally if not higher than just having great hands, yet this distinction is never considered when talking about RBs. There's a difference to RBs that just catch dump offs and ones that are actually used like WRs. I think McKinnon will likely fall in the latter group.

 

[menobrown]

Why is it that whenever people talk about RBs in the passing game, they kinda just assume that if they can catch and pass block, they'll be great in the receiving game?

When we talk about receivers the ability to run crisp consistent routes and get separation is valued equally if not higher than just having great hands, yet this distinction is never considered when talking about RBs. There's a difference to RBs that just catch dump offs and ones that are actually used like WRs. I think McKinnon will likely fall in the latter group.

This is what I was referencing a few posts up when I referenced what Dirk Koetter said about Ronald Jones and receiving ability of RB's in this draft class. 

 

[Football Jones]

The most interesting thing to me is how high Shanahan must be on McKinnon to go the route they did, irregardless if there’s an out.

That’s a good sign McKinnon will be given a big opportunity, which is half the battle in FF. I have serious doubts about him taking advantage of it, though.

 

[zeeshan2]

Would you rather have Mckinnon or Henry going forward?

 

[Jello_Biafra]

Would you rather have Mckinnon or Henry going forward?

Henry

 

[menobrown]

Would you rather have Mckinnon or Henry going forward?

Mckinnon

 

[Football Jones]

Henry by a mile, IMO.

 

[ZWK]

McKinnon in PPR, Derrick Henry in non-PPR. I expect McKinnon to catch about 40 more passes than Henry.

 

[the lone star]

Not a big believer in McKinnon tbh, but he will be a lead back under a coach that has done well with RBs. In redraft, that's worth at worst a 5th round pick I think.

 

[Raback]

Would you rather have Mckinnon or Henry going forward?

McKinnon by a fair amount 

 

[Ace08]

Not a big believer in McKinnon tbh, but he will be a lead back under a coach that has done well with RBs. In redraft, that's worth at worst a 5th round pick I think.

5th round pick?  Then in other words you hate him and he won't be on any of your teams.

On FF Calculator PPR mocks homeboy is going in the 2nd and 3rd round on the regular.  Seeing as he has no perceived competition that price will only rise the closer we get to the season.

 

[the lone star]

5th round pick?  Then in other words you hate him and he won't be on any of your teams.

On FF Calculator PPR mocks homeboy is going in the 2nd and 3rd round on the regular.  Seeing as he has no perceived competition that price will only rise the closer we get to the season.

I did say at worst. He might not have a lot of competition, but Shanny did like Breida and Williams last year. Let's see what happens. I might take him in the 3rd, but probably not the 2nd. Depends on who is available and how many teams are playing.

 

[Ace08]

I did say at worst. He might not have a lot of competition, but Shanny did like Breida and Williams last year. Let's see what happens. I might take him in the 3rd, but probably not the 2nd. Depends on who is available and how many teams are playing.

That's fine but at this point you'd be lucky to get him in the 3rd of a 12 man ppr.  The third round pretty much represents the absolute best case scenario.  There is zero chance he gets out of the 3rd round

 

[the lone star]

That's fine but at this point you'd be lucky to get him in the 3rd of a 12 man ppr.  The third round pretty much represents the absolute best case scenario.  There is zero chance he gets out of the 3rd round

Yeah, it all depends on who else is there. I like his standing for this year, but I was never too impressed with him in Minny. I usually go RB and WR rounds 1 and 2, and depending on who is there in round 3, I could maybe still snag a decent TE, which has been key in the redraft leagues that I play in. Same with QB.

 

[Chaka]

Would you rather have Mckinnon or Henry going forward?

Travis?

 

[Biabreakable]

Travis?

Pretty sure he means Derrick Henry not Travis me so horny.

eta - Its a tough choice. I tend to agree with ZWK on this one. Henry in standard McKinnon in PPR.

 

[Chaka]

McKinnon flashed quite a bit in his first two seasons but Derrick Henry has flashed easily as much, if not more, in his first two seasons. While he hasn't had nearly as many targets, his catch % is actually a tad better than McKinnon's with a significantly better y/r, he also has a better career rushing Y/A. I expect that would even out with higher volume, as frequently happens.

However, one glaring difference is the offensive line in front of each player. Tennessee has easily a top 5 offensive line and you could make a strong argument for them in the top spot going into 2018. You cannot say the same about San Francisco despite the high pick on the tackle from ND.

New coaching staff.in Tennessee is the only x-factor IMO.  

 

[Chaka]

Henry can catch.

 

[Biabreakable]

McKinnon flashed quite a bit in his first two seasons but Derrick Henry has flashed easily as much, if not more, in his first two seasons. While he hasn't had nearly as many targets, his catch % is actually a tad better than McKinnon's with a significantly better y/r, he also has a better career rushing Y/A. I expect that would even out with higher volume, as frequently happens.

However, one glaring difference is the offensive line in front of each player. Tennessee has easily a top 5 offensive line and you could make a strong argument for them in the top spot going into 2018. You cannot say the same about San Francisco despite the high pick on the tackle from ND.

New coaching staff.in Tennessee is the only x-factor IMO.  

It is possible Dion Lewis stays healthy which would limit Henrys opportunities as a receiver most likely.

I think there a more x factors than you mentioned, and as far as that goes there are more x factors that none of us are aware of or will imagine.

 

[Chaka]

It is possible Dion Lewis stays healthy which would limit Henrys opportunities as a receiver most likely.

I think there a more x factors than you mentioned, and as far as that goes there are more x factors that none of us are aware of or will imagine.

Lewis could stay healthy, Breida could also be a factor. There is no question in Tennessee about who the goal line back is, which cannot be said about San Francisco.

And, again, the Tennessee offensive line is vastly superior going into 2018. It's not even close or up for debate.

HOWEVER, that being said there are always examples of great lines going into a season dramatically underperforming (Hello 2017 Oakland Raiders) and seemingly mediocre to baf lines rising well above projections (withess 2017 Minnesota Vikings). But more often than not it's smart to bet on the o-line that projects to be vastly superior.

 

[Biabreakable]

I agree the Titans have a better offensive line than the 49ers.

The things you mention, such as goal line opportunities, run blocking, these things matter more in standard scoring leagues while catching a lot of passes matters more in PPR leagues.

 

[Chaka]

There are a total of 80 regular season starts for every offensive line (16x5). Tennessee is returning 78 of those starts (153 of 160 from the past two seasons). That kind.of.lime cohesion is a dream scenario, the only other teams in the same realm are Pittsburgh, Philadelphia,  Dallas and Oakland (the cautionary tale, but I would still bet on a big rebound from them this season). 

SanFrancisco, while adding the consensus best tackle in the draft  (Robert Gallery was a once in a generation tackle once upon a time) is  returning 41 of 80 starts from last year and only the only returning starters from 2016 is Joe Staley.  That's medi

I am a big believer in offensive line cohesion, Tennessee has it in spades (only elite lines see this level of year-to-year cohesiveness) San Francisco not so much.

Again that is not to say the SF line can't or won't outperform, or even approximate the level we should expect from Tennessee but if you are a betting man you should go all in on Tennessee.

 

[Chaka]

I agree the Titans have a better offensive line than the 49ers.

The things you mention, such as goal line opportunities, run blocking, these things matter more in standard scoring leagues while catching a lot of passes matters more in PPR leagues.

Henry can catch. Better lines are equally important in standard and PPR leagues.

 

[Biabreakable]

Henry can catch.

Of course he can, but not when Dion Lewis is doing that.

Better lines are equally important in standard and PPR leagues.

TD matter in both formats as well, but they matter more in a relative sense in standard leagues.

I have no idea why you are arguing about this when it is just common sense.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Henry can catch. Better lines are equally important in standard and PPR leagues.

Being able to catch is only half the battle.

 

[Chaka]

Of course he can, but not when Dion Lewis is doing that.

TD matter in both formats as well, but they matter more in a relative sense in standard leagues.

I have no idea why you are arguing about this when it is just common sense.

1) Common sense is typically not common.

2) My issue is with the default assumption that Lewis caps Henry, in any format, more than Breida caps McKinnon. With very few exceptions every RB is capped by the presence of other RBs on the team. I think the impact of Lewis vs Breida on Henry and McKinnon will be negligible at best.  Henry has the look of a legitimate every down running back, the only question mark is having a new coaching staff. We have no idea what Vrabel wants to do and his history in New England makes a bizarro RB situation very real.  However he hired Matt LaFleur as his OC, he was the OC for the Rams last season and the QB coach, on the same staff with Kyle Shanahan, in Atlanta in 2014-2015 all of which bodes very well for Henry.

 

[Chaka]

Being able to catch is only half the battle.

Well, here's to hoping that Henry conquers that pesky "knowing" half soon.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

1) Common sense is typically not common.

2) My issue is with the default assumption that Lewis caps Henry, in any format, more than Breida caps McKinnon. With very few exceptions every RB is capped by the presence of other RBs on the team. I think the impact of Lewis vs Breida on Henry and McKinnon will be negligible at best.  Henry has the look of a legitimate every down running back, the only question mark is having a new coaching staff. We have no idea what Vrabel wants to do and his history in New England makes a bizarro RB situation very real.  However he hired Matt LaFleur as his OC, he was the OC for the Rams last season and the QB coach, on the same staff with Kyle Shanahan, in Atlanta in 2014-2015 all of which bodes very well for Henry.

You are underselling Dion Lewis who not only had "the look of a legitimate every down running back" but was a legitimate every down back during the second half of the season for the team that represented the AFC in the Super Bowl. The Titans liked him enough to sign him for $5MM a year with $11.5MM guaranteed. To think that his usage will be negligible seems a little misguided. I do think Henry is very likely to see more carries than Lewis, but to think Lewis will just be a spell back and not at least be part of a RBBC (where he would surely see 3rd down work) just seems like wishful thinking from a Henry owner from an outside perspective of some one that owns neither.

Meanwhile you have McKinnon who signed a four year $30MM contract with $15.7MM guaranteed and is one of the highest paid RBs in the league. I like Breida a bit but he was an UDFA and isn't likely to significantly threaten a guy who was specifically sought out by a HC because he was the perfect fit for his offense and a GM that backed up the truck to sign him.

Money isn't everything when you are in the heat of battle on the field but to act like it has no significance is a bit naïve as well.

 

[Chaka]

You are underselling Dion Lewis who not only had "the look of a legitimate every down running back" but was a legitimate every down back during the second half of the season for the team that represented the AFC in the Super Bowl. The Titans liked him enough to sign him for $5MM a year with $11.5MM guaranteed. To think that his usage will be negligible seems a little misguided. I do think Henry is very likely to see more carries than Lewis, but to think Lewis will just be a spell back and not at least be part of a RBBC (where he would surely see 3rd down work) just seems like wishful thinking from a Henry owner from an outside perspective of some one that owns neither.

Meanwhile you have McKinnon who signed a four year $30MM contract with $15.7MM guaranteed and is one of the highest paid RBs in the league. I like Breida a bit but he was an UDFA and isn't likely to significantly threaten a guy who was specifically sought out by a HC because he was the perfect fit for his offense and a GM that backed up the truck to sign him.

Money isn't everything when you are in the heat of battle on the field but to act like it has no significance is a bit naïve as well.

I did not say Lewis' usage would be negligible. I said the impact has on Henry vs the impact Breida has on McKinnon would be negligible.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I did not say Lewis' usage would be negligible. I said the impact has on Henry vs the impact Breida has on McKinnon would be negligible.

The same logic can be used to address your nuanced words.

 

[chinawildman]

This is what I was referencing a few posts up when I referenced what Dirk Koetter said about Ronald Jones and receiving ability of RB's in this draft class. 

Yea. As a niners fan I was initially pretty ho hum about getting McKinnon since in my mind at the time he and Brieda were basically the same guy (they even went to the same school). But I think I could be underestimating McKinnon's game without the ball in his hands.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I did not say Lewis' usage would be negligible. I said the impact has on Henry vs the impact Breida has on McKinnon would be negligible.

I'm failing to see the distinction.

 

[Chaka]

You are underselling Dion Lewis who not only had "the look of a legitimate every down running back" but was a legitimate every down back during the second half of the season for the team that represented the AFC in the Super Bowl. The Titans liked him enough to sign him for $5MM a year with $11.5MM guaranteed. To think that his usage will be negligible seems a little misguided. I do think Henry is very likely to see more carries than Lewis, but to think Lewis will just be a spell back and not at least be part of a RBBC (where he would surely see 3rd down work) just seems like wishful thinking from a Henry owner from an outside perspective of some one that owns neither.

Meanwhile you have McKinnon who signed a four year $30MM contract with $15.7MM guaranteed and is one of the highest paid RBs in the league. I like Breida a bit but he was an UDFA and isn't likely to significantly threaten a guy who was specifically sought out by a HC because he was the perfect fit for his offense and a GM that backed up the truck to sign him.

Money isn't everything when you are in the heat of battle on the field but to act like it has no significance is a bit naïve as well.

I play in one redraft league and we haven't drafted yet. I own neither ATM and owned both last season along with Hyde and Breida. I am not coming from a position of bias for either.

 

[Chaka]

I'm failing to see the distinction.

It's a rather large distinction.

Let me see if I can state it with more clarity.

A) The difference between how much Breida caps McKinnon and how much Lewis caps Henry will be negligible.

In other words

B) Breida will cap McKinnon about as much as Lewis will cap Henry.

IMO, of course.

Neither of those is a statement about how much usage an individual RB will see in 2018.

 

[tkrull]

McKinnon flashed quite a bit in his first two seasons but Derrick Henry has flashed easily as much, if not more, in his first two seasons. While he hasn't had nearly as many targets, his catch % is actually a tad better than McKinnon's with a significantly better y/r, he also has a better career rushing Y/A. I expect that would even out with higher volume, as frequently happens.

However, one glaring difference is the offensive line in front of each player. Tennessee has easily a top 5 offensive line and you could make a strong argument for them in the top spot going into 2018. You cannot say the same about San Francisco despite the high pick on the tackle from ND.

New coaching staff.in Tennessee is the only x-factor IMO.  

and D.Lewis.

 

[Chaka]

and D.Lewis.

Asked and answered.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Asked and answered.

As was yours.  One guy is facing the challenge of a UFDA.  The other might lose touches to a guy who was highly productive last year and was rewarded with $11.5M in guaranteed money.  Gee, which guy would you rather have to battle for touches?

 

[Aunt Jemima]

It's a rather large distinction.

Let me see if I can state it with more clarity.

A) The difference between how much Breida caps McKinnon and how much Lewis caps Henry will be negligible.

In other words

B) Breida will cap McKinnon about as much as Lewis will cap Henry.

IMO, of course.

Neither of those is a statement about how much usage an individual RB will see in 2018.

pretty sure your opinion on this is not the majority opinion, Dion Lewis >> Breida. You can argue in Tennessee who the actual starter is and who is the better overall rb (different skillsets). You cannot make that argument in SF

 

[Chaka]

pretty sure your opinion on this is not the majority opinion, Dion Lewis >> Breida.

Why do people think I am comparing talent or volume? I am comparing the impact two players will have on two other players.  Lewis is one of the most entertaining backs to watch in the game.  He clearly oozes talent and his production matches.  I would feel a lot better about him if he hadn't missed 24 games over the past four seasons but I absolutely love his talent. It's even possible that he goes all Fred Taylor or DeMarco Murray after missing significant time early in his career and go on to multiple 16 game seasons and I sincerely hope that happens.

But I am not comparing his talent vs any other RB.

 

[Chaka]

You cannot make that argument in SF

Why not? Is McKinnon some kind of world beater now? He has averaged 3.6 YPC on his last 300 carries. 3.8 ypc behind the same line that Latavius Murray ran for 3.9 ypc and Dalvin Cook ran for 4.8 ypc. And Latavius was running on a bad wheel for half the season.

McKinnon got paid, good for him. But the only thing that proves in May is that his agent is a top talent. Nothing about him or his contract guarantees he won't be in a 50:50 timeshare from the jump. And nothing Breida did on the field last season should dispel that notion either.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Why do people think I am comparing talent or volume? I am comparing the impact two players will have on two other players.  Lewis is one of the most entertaining backs to watch in the game.  He clearly oozes talent and his production matches.  I would feel a lot better about him if he hadn't missed 24 games over the past four seasons but I absolutely love his talent. It's even possible that he goes all Fred Taylor or DeMarco Murray after missing significant time early in his career and go on to multiple 16 game seasons and I sincerely hope that happens.

But I am not comparing his talent vs any other RB.

Ok.  The rest of us see all those criteria (not just talent - the whole picture) as primary reasons why Lewis is more of a threat to Henry's usage......than Breida is to McKinnon's usage. 

Why don't you see Lewis as more of a threat to Henry's usage?

 

[Chaka]

Ok.  The rest of us see all those criteria (not just talent - the whole picture) as primary reasons why Lewis is more of a threat to Henry's usage......than Breida is to McKinnon's usage. 

Why don't you see Lewis as more of a threat to Henry's usage?

I really think I have been quite clear about that.

A few points for clarity:

I think Lewis>>>Breida

I think Henry>>>McKinnon

I think Tennessee offensive line>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>San Francisco offensive line

I think Lewis will be on more of a snap count than Breida, Henry and McKinnon

When you put it all together I think Lewis will have about as much impact on Henry as Breida will have on McKinnon. And I think what that amounts to fantasy wise is Henry >>>> McKinnon in all formats. It may also be fair to say Lewis >>> McKinnon in all formats too.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

slowly backs away....