RB Jerick McKinnon, KC (1 Viewer)

[ZWK]

It's looking more and more likely that AP isn't going to be back with the Vikings. So how high do we view McKinnon as a lead dog? Can he even be a lead back? He sure has the athleticism for it, and his rookie season was pretty nice with flashes. 4.8 YPC on 113 attempts is not the largest sample size, but I think it's enough to at least project him as a good RBBC guy for this year.

I see McKinnon putting up Gio Bernard type numbers. In my ppr league Gio avg ppg was rb10 (lower on total points due to playing only 13 games) Project Gio over 16 and he would have had 206 carries and 53 touches. That is almost exactly what I expect from McKinnon this yr.

Gio averaged 4.0 per carry and 8.1 per catch. McKinnon averaged 4.8 and 5.0. Clearly McKinnon needs to improve his yards per catch, but that isn't hard to imagine with his athletic ability. He should be great in space and clearly showed some of that skill with 4.8 per carry

I see this comparison a lot but the two have little in common other than height. McKinnon is a much better runner and athlete than Gio. He also doesn't have the receiving skills that Bernard has. He may gain them in time but he's very raw as a receiver still. Gio is really a Sproles type back whereas I believe McKinnon is effective on early downs and could turn into a 3 down back.

Gio has been one of the best receiving backs in the NFL over the past 2 years. Over 40% of his yards from scrimmage have come in the passing game (including playoffs).

McKinnon was one of the worst receiving backs in the NFL last year. According to PFR, he had 3.3 yards per target, which was last in the NFL among all players (at any position) with 25+ targets.

 

[Faust]

Jerick McKinnon wants to start if A.P. doesn't return

 

[Zyphros]

It's looking more and more likely that AP isn't going to be back with the Vikings. So how high do we view McKinnon as a lead dog? Can he even be a lead back? He sure has the athleticism for it, and his rookie season was pretty nice with flashes. 4.8 YPC on 113 attempts is not the largest sample size, but I think it's enough to at least project him as a good RBBC guy for this year.

I see McKinnon putting up Gio Bernard type numbers. In my ppr league Gio avg ppg was rb10 (lower on total points due to playing only 13 games) Project Gio over 16 and he would have had 206 carries and 53 touches. That is almost exactly what I expect from McKinnon this yr.

Gio averaged 4.0 per carry and 8.1 per catch. McKinnon averaged 4.8 and 5.0. Clearly McKinnon needs to improve his yards per catch, but that isn't hard to imagine with his athletic ability. He should be great in space and clearly showed some of that skill with 4.8 per carry

I see this comparison a lot but the two have little in common other than height. McKinnon is a much better runner and athlete than Gio. He also doesn't have the receiving skills that Bernard has. He may gain them in time but he's very raw as a receiver still. Gio is really a Sproles type back whereas I believe McKinnon is effective on early downs and could turn into a 3 down back.

I tend to agree with you. I wasnt trying to compare the 2 on style or skill set. I was just using Gio as an example of the type of usage I expect McKinnon to get.

I own both rbs and gio is consistently valued higher. Personally, I prefer McKinnon. I will probably trade gio but there is no way I would trade McKinnon because his perceived value is way too low imo

In regards to his perceived value I agree, McKinnon is a much cheaper option if his owner is willing to give him up. He's one of my favorite buys right now, but I can guarantee that his value will skyrocket up pretty quick if AP gets traded. That's obvious though.

 

[FUBAR]

It's looking more and more likely that AP isn't going to be back with the Vikings. So how high do we view McKinnon as a lead dog? Can he even be a lead back? He sure has the athleticism for it, and his rookie season was pretty nice with flashes. 4.8 YPC on 113 attempts is not the largest sample size, but I think it's enough to at least project him as a good RBBC guy for this year.

I see McKinnon putting up Gio Bernard type numbers. In my ppr league Gio avg ppg was rb10 (lower on total points due to playing only 13 games) Project Gio over 16 and he would have had 206 carries and 53 touches. That is almost exactly what I expect from McKinnon this yr.

Gio averaged 4.0 per carry and 8.1 per catch. McKinnon averaged 4.8 and 5.0. Clearly McKinnon needs to improve his yards per catch, but that isn't hard to imagine with his athletic ability. He should be great in space and clearly showed some of that skill with 4.8 per carry

I see this comparison a lot but the two have little in common other than height. McKinnon is a much better runner and athlete than Gio. He also doesn't have the receiving skills that Bernard has. He may gain them in time but he's very raw as a receiver still. Gio is really a Sproles type back whereas I believe McKinnon is effective on early downs and could turn into a 3 down back.

Gio has been one of the best receiving backs in the NFL over the past 2 years. Over 40% of his yards from scrimmage have come in the passing game (including playoffs).

McKinnon was one of the worst receiving backs in the NFL last year. According to PFR, he had 3.3 yards per target, which was last in the NFL among all players (at any position) with 25+ targets.

Interesting stat, one would reasonably assume that would improve as he develops experience as a RB.

 

[voiceofunreason]

It's looking more and more likely that AP isn't going to be back with the Vikings. So how high do we view McKinnon as a lead dog? Can he even be a lead back? He sure has the athleticism for it, and his rookie season was pretty nice with flashes. 4.8 YPC on 113 attempts is not the largest sample size, but I think it's enough to at least project him as a good RBBC guy for this year.

I see McKinnon putting up Gio Bernard type numbers. In my ppr league Gio avg ppg was rb10 (lower on total points due to playing only 13 games) Project Gio over 16 and he would have had 206 carries and 53 touches. That is almost exactly what I expect from McKinnon this yr.

Gio averaged 4.0 per carry and 8.1 per catch. McKinnon averaged 4.8 and 5.0. Clearly McKinnon needs to improve his yards per catch, but that isn't hard to imagine with his athletic ability. He should be great in space and clearly showed some of that skill with 4.8 per carry

I see this comparison a lot but the two have little in common other than height. McKinnon is a much better runner and athlete than Gio. He also doesn't have the receiving skills that Bernard has. He may gain them in time but he's very raw as a receiver still. Gio is really a Sproles type back whereas I believe McKinnon is effective on early downs and could turn into a 3 down back.

Gio has been one of the best receiving backs in the NFL over the past 2 years. Over 40% of his yards from scrimmage have come in the passing game (including playoffs).

McKinnon was one of the worst receiving backs in the NFL last year. According to PFR, he had 3.3 yards per target, which was last in the NFL among all players (at any position) with 25+ targets.

I'm surprised he was that bad, I thought he was more middle of the pack. He made a lot of progress from a division 2 qb though and I still have hope that he turns into the player that David Wilson was supposed to be.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I'd like to see someone chart those receptions. My recollection (possibly biased) is a lot of them were last-second dump offs to avoid a sack rather than called plays, and that McKinnon almost never got the ball in space.

 

[DropKick]

I think McKinnon is undervalued right now and is one of this offseason's best acquisition targets. As an example...Using DLF March ADP Hyde was picked at RB8 and McKinnon was RB24. If I could get McKinnon plus the value delta between rb24 and rb8 for Hyde....I would probably hurt myself due to moving so fast to hit the trade button..

WTF

Please tell me that's not a real thing now in FF

The term value delta or what it means? How can a difference in value not be a real thing in FF?

As a regular FF term

Sorry it bothers you so much

Put me in the "fewer terms" camp... People will interpret them differently, especially if they suggest some type of mathematical method. In this case, the valuation is highly subjective.

As far as McKinnon goes. I drafted him in dynasty last year and like his skill set. But his value could change significantly based on Peterson or what the Vikings do in the draft.

Apparently, you feel Jerick is undervalued at RB24 and I hope you're right. What do you think is a realistic "value delta" between RB8 and RB24 in terms of additional player(s) and or draft picks?

I typically evaluate a trade in terms of the best player. I prefer quality over quantity.... there are exceptions, especially when rebuilding. So, who would you want thrown into that deal?

 

[Biabreakable]

I'd like to see someone chart those receptions. My recollection (possibly biased) is a lot of them were last-second dump offs to avoid a sack rather than called plays, and that McKinnon almost never got the ball in space.

Here are some observations of his catching ability.There a GIFs of plays to accompany these comments in the link.

The vast majority of his routes are angle routes or simple three-yard checkdowns. He occasionally runs flare routes to the edge or shoot routes into the flat, but the Vikings seem to like him in the middle of the field right now. His route tree is naturally not developed even for a running back, but he’s able to run the limited routes he does and I fully expect his tree to expand with time.


As a route-runner, he’s been surprising. Though he doesn’t have much experience running any routes at all, much less ones with breaks, he has a lot of route-running capability. He’s incorporated head fakes, shoulder fakes and other kinds of deception, and he already has advanced release technique in-route despite never really having to get off the line of scrimmage as a receiver. He sinks his hips and uses proper plant technique.

There’s a significant difference between having the explosive capability to get out of breaks and having the right technique to get into the route, and it’s one of the reasons why Patterson isn’t getting open as often as he needs to be despite his short-area quickness. From his limited sample, so far it looks like McKinnon has the ability to incorporate that kind of technique. He has the ability to deceive in route, which is tough for running backs and shocking for a quarterback convert that didn’t really do it in college. I’m not sure where he got it, but it’s an astounding feature for him to have. Below is one of those instances, and with it he flew open against DeAndre Levy, Pro Football Focus’ third-best coverage linebacker.

You’ll notice he didn’t catch it. He has good hands technique most of the time, but it doesn’t quite work. He doesn’t cradle the ball through the catch, but he also has extraordinarily tiny hands. While I tend to dismiss hand size in a lot of cases (it’s overblown a lot), the extremes raise eyebrows and his are the smallest in the draft class. Still, he brings his hands together, attacks the ball and sees the ball into his hands. It’s good stuff and relatively advanced for someone with his experience.

That said, his route adjustments have been a little rough and he still has a very high drop rate. Something that doesn’t get caught in drop rates is incompletions he causes with incorrect route adjustments. Below, he slows up and causes an incompletion when he shouldn’t have.

At other times, his ability to read the defense has been very good and he’s sat in the holes of zones or option away from man coverage in order to create space and enable the passing game. It’s still something he’s working on, but it’s not as if he’s completely behind the eight-ball here.

But the reason he’s such an exciting receiving option wasn’t supposed to be advanced route-running skills or the kind of reliability that Danny Woodhead or Jacquizz Rodgers provides in the hands department. It’s his explosiveness and yards after the catch. YAC isn’t just about the ability to start from a standstill or vision, although both of those are critical.

It means feeling out where defenders are before the catch happens without losing focus on the ball and acting on those instincts. It needs to have a quick turnaround time (as a contrast, Asiata takes ages to spin after catching the ball when facing the QB), instant decisionmaking and great instincts for space. He certainly has all of that.

Next year, don’t be surprised him to line up on the line and run receiver routes even with the problems he’s displayed. We still need to see more of his footwork in those situations to really be confident about it, but he knows what to do with his hands and shoulders in order to get free of defenders.

 

[Bojang0301]

I feel like every time this guy is talked about he "surprises" people with his ability. He had the highest SPARQ score of the RB's last year. Not saying anyone should have expected his transition to be smooth but he's a hell of an athlete. Sometimes for superior athletes (see: Graham, Jimmy) all it takes is for a little game awareness for them to show up on the field. I'm buying even if AD returns this guy is a solid investment.

Edit to add: I'm really surprised there isn't a huge hype train for McKinnon. I mean Christine Michael has his own bandwagon railing for 1st round picks, maybe, to get a trade for him. This guy has that athleticism backed up with two 100 yd. games in an offense filled with a rookie QB, lost Patterson, raw Charles Johnson, no name TE's and it's his first season playing the position. Maybe that has a lot to do with it being his conversion from QB. Buy now before people start realizing what a gem this guy could be.

 

[DropKick]

I think McKinnon is undervalued right now and is one of this offseason's best acquisition targets. As an example...Using DLF March ADP Hyde was picked at RB8 and McKinnon was RB24. If I could get McKinnon plus the value delta between rb24 and rb8 for Hyde....I would probably hurt myself due to moving so fast to hit the trade button..

WTFPlease tell me that's not a real thing now in FF

The term value delta or what it means? How can a difference in value not be a real thing in FF?

As a regular FF term

Sorry it bothers you so much

Put me in the "fewer terms" camp... People will interpret them differently, especially if they suggest some type of mathematical method. In this case, the valuation is highly subjective.

As far as McKinnon goes. I drafted him in dynasty last year and like his skill set. But his value could change significantly based on Peterson or what the Vikings do in the draft.

Apparently, you feel Jerick is undervalued at RB24 and I hope you're right. What do you think is a realistic "value delta" between RB8 and RB24 in terms of additional player(s) and or draft picks?

I typically evaluate a trade in terms of the best player. I prefer quality over quantity.... there are exceptions, especially when rebuilding. So, who would you want thrown into that deal?

Good question. To proper quantify a "value delta, one must objectively weight all of the appropriate qualitative and quantitative differences between the two unknowns over a statistically valid time frame. We must then scrub the data to make sure we adjust any abnormalities and or error or ommisions, as well as determine the type of data we have. Is it a normal distribution or do we have skewed data?

Just messing with you .

It really is a good question. I am stuck between what I think the value difference is (thank God I didnt use delta and confuse that) and what the market will pay (ooops, by market I mean other owners ).

I think the difference is zero as I prefer McKinnon. I think normally the difference between rb8 and rb24 is somewhere around 1.06 (that is the 6th pick of the 1st round not a statistical result btw),but I think that all depends on the names at rb8 and rb24. In this case using the names, I seriously doubt anyone could get more that a late first or early 2nd....but that is just my view. I would love to hear other views.

After my analysis, the resulting correlation coefficient showed I couldn't use the model with any - statistically anyway - real degree of confidence... However, if I were explaining that to someone with no technical background, I would put it into layman's terms as a courtesy and ease of understanding.

Right now... I think most would value Hyde well above McKinnon given Hyde should be the lead back come September where there is more reason to expect some changes before then... So the names (and the unique situations) do matter.

I would think there are owners that would give a late first plus Jerick to upgrade to Hyde.

 

[Biabreakable]

DLF ADP

For the example of Carlos Hydes value compared to McKinnon. I do think the term delta is a good way to describe this difference in value.

Hyde is the 8th RB at an average of pick 30.33

McKinnon is the 24th RB at an average of pick 69.33

So this is a 39 pick difference in value. The cost of investment for Hyde is a mid range 3rd round pick in a start up compared to a late 5th round pick.

One could calculate the value based on historical VBD results. Which has been discussed somewhat in this thread. Here is another example of calculating these values. These evaluations are focused more on making a comparison of rookie pick values to established players. But could be used for evaluation of player for player trades as well.

It isn't clear to me what the expected value of pick 69 is compared to pick 30 so that could be the focus of another study or conversation.

Personally I do not really value Carlos Hyde any more than I do Jerick McKinnon. So if I could gain value by trading Hyde for McKinnon that is something I would pursue. The question is how much more value should the McKinnon buyer be able to reasonably expect in such an exchange? How much are those 39 draft spots worth?

I know when I have done start up dynasty drafts I always try to trade down to pick up additional picks, and that strategy has worked out very well for me.

 

[DropKick]

DLF ADP

For the example of Carlos Hydes value compared to McKinnon. I do think the term delta is a good way to describe this difference in value.

Hyde is the 8th RB at an average of pick 30.33

McKinnon is the 24th RB at an average of pick 69.33

So this is a 39 pick difference in value. The cost of investment for Hyde is a mid range 3rd round pick in a start up compared to a late 5th round pick.

One could calculate the value based on historical VBD results. Which has been discussed somewhat in this thread. Here is another example of calculating these values. These evaluations are focused more on making a comparison of rookie pick values to established players. But could be used for evaluation of player for player trades as well.

It isn't clear to me what the expected value of pick 69 is compared to pick 30 so that could be the focus of another study or conversation.

Personally I do not really value Carlos Hyde any more than I do Jerick McKinnon. So if I could gain value by trading Hyde for McKinnon that is something I would pursue. The question is how much more value should the McKinnon buyer be able to reasonably expect in such an exchange? How much are those 39 draft spots worth?

I know when I have done start up dynasty drafts I always try to trade down to pick up additional picks, and that strategy has worked out very well for me.

Despite the math... At the end of the day, it comes down to how the people in your league value the players in question. i will often give up more "value" in a deal to land the best player. I trust in my ability to mine a replacement via the draft, trade or free agency. The goal is to put the best team on the field.

 

[Biabreakable]

When I have traded down in start ups in the past I was not using a draft value chart to do so.

Usually what I would try to do is ask for an additional pick, either a rookie pick or later start up pick in exchange for moving down in the draft.

From the perspective of the best player wins the trade, a lot of people would see it that way and that is why they were willing to give me additional picks for the opportunity to move up and draft the best players at those draft spots.

I did not end up with teams best able to compete for a title right away by doing this. It was a calculated sacrifice of starter quality now for greater value in the future. I would focus the early picks I did make at QB and WR positions that tend to have longer careers. Through multiple trades like this I was able to control a large amount of rookie picks in the following season. The WR picks I made later in the draft, many of them developed into quality starters that I could use as trade bait or as starters later on. I would also move rookie picks for future rookie picks. With the idea of rookie picks being extra roster spots.

This type of strategy does not work as well in short roster leagues as ones with deeper rosters. The shorter the roster, the closer the league gets to a redraft league in my opinion.

 

[DropKick]

When I have traded down in start ups in the past I was not using a draft value chart to do so.

Usually what I would try to do is ask for an additional pick, either a rookie pick or later start up pick in exchange for moving down in the draft.

From the perspective of the best player wins the trade, a lot of people would see it that way and that is why they were willing to give me additional picks for the opportunity to move up and draft the best players at those draft spots.

I did not end up with teams best able to compete for a title right away by doing this. It was a calculated sacrifice of starter quality now for greater value in the future. I would focus the early picks I did make at QB and WR positions that tend to have longer careers. Through multiple trades like this I was able to control a large amount of rookie picks in the following season. The WR picks I made later in the draft, many of them developed into quality starters that I could use as trade bait or as starters later on. I would also move rookie picks for future rookie picks. With the idea of rookie picks being extra roster spots.

This type of strategy does not work as well in short roster leagues as ones with deeper rosters. The shorter the roster, the closer the league gets to a redraft league in my opinion.

As I read your post, I'm thinking "this depends a lot on roster size" since larger rosters can impact one's ability to replace players. So, we are in agreement here...

I've found that even with just over 200 roster players (no IDP), there are still good free agent finds. I'll also revisit the league's past drafts and see there have been many, many blown draft picks across the league. One startling observation is how few of the high picks - typically spent on rookie RBs - have panned out. Blame it on hype, over zealousness for the "next big thing" or even RB scarcity, but the reality is the draft pick is a lottery ticket, with large fluctuations in realized value.

Trading up or trading down can both be effective strategies. It depends a lot on your draft board and the depth of the draft class. For example, If you wanted AJ Green or Julio Jones in 2011, you needed a high pick. You may have got lucky later with a Randall Cobb but the drop-off after this elite tier was steep. Last year, maybe you weren't sold on Watkins (or his situation) or Evans (and possible character issues), or were high on Beckham (and thought his injury would help him drop), or just thought there were so many good options you'd rather have multiple picks.

Both approaches hinge on your confidence to use the picks effectively.

 

[Biabreakable]

Exactly DropKick.

Picks can be wrong or just bust for unforseen reasons. So accepting that, having 2 picks (or more) instead of one improves your odds of at least one of those picks (possibly more) panning out compared to your one pick.

For example lets look at ZWK's findings of success rate of players based on position and where they were drafted by the NFL.

rd 1 RB (58%)
rd 1 WR (46%)
rd 1 TE (44%)
rd 1 QB (36%)
rd 2 RB (29%)
rd 2 QB (27%)
rd 2 WR (22%)
rd 3 RB (20%)
rd 6 QB (14%) [this is a fluke]
rd 3 WR (14%)
rd 4 RB (13%)
rd 2 TE (11%)
rd 5 RB (10%)
rd 3 TE (8%)
rd 4 WR (8%)
rd 5 QB (6%)
rd 6 RB (6%)
rd 3 QB (6%)
rd 4 QB (5%)
rd 4 TE (4%)

Now lets say you are considering drafting Carlos Hyde who was a 2nd round RB (29% chance of decent fantasy career defined as 50+ cumulative VBD) but you could trade down to where McKinnon was drafted (20% chance of decent fantasy career defined as 50+ cumulative VBD) and gain a 1st round rookie pick the following season that you end up using on a 1st round WR (46% chance of decent fantasy career defined as 50+ cumulative VBD).

The result of your trade would be 29% to 66% odds of getting a decent player career. With the chance that both of the players you draft end up becoming useful players. That seems like a win as long as the roster size of your league allows you to roster those players and the free agent pool isn't so talented that you can frequently find players of this quality as free agents.

There is the opportunity cost of not being able to use the future draft pick to help you win this season, that should be considered, but you also are not having to use a roster spot for that future first so you can use that spot to pick up a free agent or make another 2 for 1 trade because of the free roster spot.

It is possible that McKinnon ends up outperforming Hyde over their careers as well despite having 9% less chance of doing so based on the draft position analysis and anything you gain in addition to McKinnon would be extra value.

No matter what you still have to make good picks, but the more picks or shots you can take I think increases your odds of making good picks, as long as the extra value gained isn't wasted because of roster constraints.

Sorry if this discussion has drifted too far from McKinnon. I think McKinnon will be an excellent RB capable of RB2 numbers in most fantasy formats. As it is right now I see McKinnon as about equal value to Hyde, but due to market inefficiency McKinnon can be had for a fraction of the price.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Vikings OC Norv Turner said Jerick McKinnon could have a limited role behind Adrian Peterson.

"Certain guys are going to contribute more than others and I’d assume Adrian would be that guy." McKinnon averaged 4.8 YPC in a committee with Matt Asiata last year, but the Vikings want to feature Peterson as their workhorse. McKinnon’s pass protection struggles prevent him from getting third down work, making him a low-volume change-of-pace option. Peterson played 74 percent of snaps in 2013.

Source: vikings.com

Jun 5 - 5:36 PM

 

[scott46984]

With AP back McKinnon is basically dead in redrafts other than as a handcuff. More value in dynasty obviously, but you're going to have to be willing to wait at least 1-2 years, and by then who knows what other RB's are on the Vikings. Could be one of those guys now that one has to hold until their rookie deal is done and see what team they end up with, guess it depends on your roster and how many guys you are able to stash/hold.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Vikings RBs coach Kirby Wilson believes the "sky is the limit" for second-year back Jerick McKinnon.

Even with Adrian Peterson back, Wilson expects SPARQ superstar McKinnon to play a key role in Minnesota's 2015 offense. "I think (McKinnon's) going to continue to improve and grow and mature, not only as an NFL starter-caliber runner, but as a premier, dynamic playmaker that you can count on every Sunday for X amount of plays," Wilson said. "And he showed flashes of that type of ability last year early on. So we're all extremely excited about the potential that he has and what he can bring and add to our offense." Wilson says the Vikings plan to monitor Peterson's snaps, ensuring McKinnon gets time on the field each week.

Source: NFL.com
Jun 12 - 2:07 PM

 

[Faust]

Now in background, McKinnon focused on being a 'three phase' player

 

[Faust]

Jerick McKinnon: I'd draft myself for fantasy football

 

[TheFanatic]

Jerick McKinnon: I'd draft myself for fantasy football

Thanks, Jerick, but I think I'll use the 1.1 on another back....

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

The Minneapolis Star-Tribune expects the Vikings to use Jerick McKinnon as "an occasional third-down back."

With Adrian Peterson locked into a workhorse role, the Vikings want McKinnon to be a bigger part of the passing game. McKinnon has made improvements in pass protection, but is unlikely to get consistent snaps on third downs. McKinnon doesn’t project as more than a high-upside stash behind Peterson.

Source: Minneapolis Star-Tribune
Jul 11 - 2:37 PM

 

[miqws]

Adrian Peterson, Vikings agree to restructure contract

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000502893/article/adrian-peterson-vikings-agree-to-restructure-contract

 

[loose circuits]

What is McKinnon's value?

Probably better to let him eat a roster spot and wait for the wheels to fall off Adrian at this point?

 

[Zyphros]

What is McKinnon's value?

Probably better to let him eat a roster spot and wait for the wheels to fall off Adrian at this point?

Exactly, although the AP wheels could be still last another 2-3 years. Not quite the same, but a little similar to the CMike situation.

 

[travdogg]

What is McKinnon's value?

Probably better to let him eat a roster spot and wait for the wheels to fall off Adrian at this point?

Exactly, although the AP wheels could be still last another 2-3 years. Not quite the same, but a little similar to the CMike situation.

That contract AP got is very easy to get put of. if Peterson lost a step sitting out a year, or gets injured, its completely possible McKinnon is the 2016 starter.

 

[Faust]

Opportunity to buy low in dynasty?

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Matt Vensel ‏@mattvensel 17h17 hours ago

Mike Zimmer is eager to see Jerick McKinnon pass-protecting in pads tomorrow. If McKinnon can do that well, he could earn a third-down role.

 

[cstu]

What is McKinnon's value?

Probably better to let him eat a roster spot and wait for the wheels to fall off Adrian at this point?

Exactly, although the AP wheels could be still last another 2-3 years. Not quite the same, but a little similar to the CMike situation.

That contract AP got is very easy to get put of. if Peterson lost a step sitting out a year, or gets injured, its completely possible McKinnon is the 2016 starter.

If he loses a step it will be due to his age, not that he wasn't able to play for 3.5 months. He played week 1 and the season wears guys down.

It's possible he could get injured, but barring that he'll be the starter again next year.

 

[ericttspikes]

Is McKinnon really the handcuff for AP this year or would he be just the 3rd down back to Asiata again if AP gets hurt? Asiata is an average RB, but surprisingly put up decent numbers last year, especially TDs.

 

[Biabreakable]

Is McKinnon really the handcuff for AP this year or would he be just the 3rd down back to Asiata again if AP gets hurt? Asiata is an average RB, but surprisingly put up decent numbers last year, especially TDs.

I believe so.

If Peterson were injured then Asiata might get more short yardage and goal line looks. The main thing McKinnon needs to do is improve his pass protection. I think a big part of why they had Asiata play as much as he did was because of his abilities there.

Peterson plays about 75% of the snaps when healthy.

 

[Jack White]

Is McKinnon really the handcuff for AP this year or would he be just the 3rd down back to Asiata again if AP gets hurt? Asiata is an average RB, but surprisingly put up decent numbers last year, especially TDs.

Once McKinnon got going last year, he supplanted Asiata as the main back.

Yes, Asiata still got snaps and touches, but McKinnon got more work until they shelved him near the end of the season.

 

[Biabreakable]

Luke Inman @Luke_Spinman

Uncle Norv just destroying Jerick McKinnon for blown assignment... You can hear the pain from two fields down

 

[ILUVBEER99]

betting on Mckinnon is betting on AD bombing this season. if AD produces he's the starting RB in MINN in 2016 also.

GL waiting on Mckinnon for 2017 or most likely 2018 production. Who knows what he'll be at that stage. At this point he holds very little value unless you think AD is going to flop this season.

 

[BigJim®]

The AP developments threw a wet blanket on McKinnon's immediate value. I don't see myself taking him in redraft at all but he's definitely a hold for me in dynasty. Seeing how AP goes about his business, including the trip to Texas for wokouts, it has to be great for a raw player like McKinnon. He impressed me as a rook, and was basically new to the RB position. If you bet on a guy's god given abilitiess vs. immediate situation, he makes a great stash and hold IMHO.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Jerick McKinnon - RB - Vikings

Jerick McKinnon rushed twice for two yards and caught a 13-yard pass in the Hall of Fame Game against Pittsburgh.

He made a guy miss and finished the run with some physicality on his 13-yard screen. McKinnon played with the first-team offense while Adrian Peterson was held out. Matt Asiata was the next back through Minnesota's rotation.

Aug 9 - 8:53 PM

 

[JFS171]

Price check on McKinnon - anyone bought or sold in dynasty?

Such a tricky situation for me. I'm a big fan of the kid's ability and talent, and I would assume McKinnon owners have to take some solace in the structuring of that contract. Vikings can exit after this year and owe Peterson nothing, or they can pay him $11MM in 2016 to play. Then they face the same decision again in 2017, only the figure is $18MM.

You have to think if Peterson plays up to the Peterson of old, then he's the starting RB again in 2016. Maybe they part ways in 2017, but maybe not... Viking for life sentiments and all, and I doubt Peterson is going to want to hang up the cleats at 32.

I was offered a late 1 in a 16 team league and I'm frankly torn. Part of me says to take the pick and run with it. Part of me wonders if I get a comparably talented player with a pick so late... and just what if Peterson isn't the same anymore? Father time is undefeated.

What are dynasty owners doing out there?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Price check on McKinnon - anyone bought or sold in dynasty?

Such a tricky situation for me. I'm a big fan of the kid's ability and talent, and I would assume McKinnon owners have to take some solace in the structuring of that contract. Vikings can exit after this year and owe Peterson nothing, or they can pay him $11MM in 2016 to play. Then they face the same decision again in 2017, only the figure is $18MM.

You have to think if Peterson plays up to the Peterson of old, then he's the starting RB again in 2016. Maybe they part ways in 2017, but maybe not... Viking for life sentiments and all, and I doubt Peterson is going to want to hang up the cleats at 32.

I was offered a late 1 in a 16 team league and I'm frankly torn. Part of me says to take the pick and run with it. Part of me wonders if I get a comparably talented player with a pick so late... and just what if Peterson isn't the same anymore? Father time is undefeated.

What are dynasty owners doing out there?

I like McKinnon, but I take a first in a heartbeat. As far as the bolded, of course you could (but doesn't mean you will) - McKinnon was a later second/third round pick last season in rookie drafts.

 

[Casting Couch]

Price check on McKinnon - anyone bought or sold in dynasty?

Such a tricky situation for me. I'm a big fan of the kid's ability and talent, and I would assume McKinnon owners have to take some solace in the structuring of that contract. Vikings can exit after this year and owe Peterson nothing, or they can pay him $11MM in 2016 to play. Then they face the same decision again in 2017, only the figure is $18MM.

You have to think if Peterson plays up to the Peterson of old, then he's the starting RB again in 2016. Maybe they part ways in 2017, but maybe not... Viking for life sentiments and all, and I doubt Peterson is going to want to hang up the cleats at 32.

I was offered a late 1 in a 16 team league and I'm frankly torn. Part of me says to take the pick and run with it. Part of me wonders if I get a comparably talented player with a pick so late... and just what if Peterson isn't the same anymore? Father time is undefeated.

What are dynasty owners doing out there?

I traded Tre Mason for McKinnon. I would grab him for a late first without hesitation. He passed the eyball test for me last year.

And like you say, "Father Time is undefeated". McKinnon's value only goes higher from here, imo.

 

[JFS171]

Last two posts have outlined the factions here... some are punting, some are buying and holding for dear life (though I think I'd buy pretty quickly for the cost of Tre Mason).

The fear as an owner, from my perspective, is that this turns into another Christine Michael situation. Who knows if Michael explodes in 2 years when Lynch moves on, IF Lynch moves on.... Same with McKinnon and Peterson

At least McKinnon doesn't have the injury resume of a Michael, but you could conceivably be waiting for 2018 here when he's a FA.

 

[Biabreakable]

At least Jet shows talent when he plays. He is a good player and will get some opportunity this season even if Peterson plays all 16 games.

Investing in McKinnon is a bit like making a bet against Peterson however and that isn't a bet I like to make.

 

[JFS171]

At least Jet shows talent when he plays. He is a good player and will get some opportunity this season even if Peterson plays all 16 games.

Investing in McKinnon is a bit like making a bet against Peterson however and that isn't a bet I like to make.

I would agree with that last part largely, although Peterson isn't expected to play at all in the preseason and left practice a few days ago after getting tangled up with a defender. Supposedly not serious, but he is 30... Injuries or ineffectiveness and Jerick becomes uber valuable.

And again I think about how easily they can walk away from Peterson next year if they want. $11MM for a RB isn't cheap.

 

[petenice15]

I handcuffed McKinnon by trading for Peterson this offseason.

 

[Dismattle]

26-60

Half of Peterson carries went for two yards or less. Peterson's only highlight was a 23-yard run in the second half.

I havnt watched much Vikings this Season..

(imho) AP is doing awesome.. much better than I anticipated

But,,

Are we still holding McKinnon for next Season...

Im figuring I cant be the only guy looking at the wire, and seeing (insert potential stud name) Artis-Payne/ Langford?

 

[Faust]

Jerick McKinnon re-emerges for diverse Vikings offense in win vs. Bears

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Jerick McKinnon rushed seven times for 89 yards and two touchdowns and caught 2-of-3 targets for eight yards in Sunday night's Week 16 win over the Giants.

McKinnon played only four first-half snaps before taking over late in the game. He vultured a TD and scored on a 68-yard run in mop-duty. Despite the big game, McKinnon will remain just a backup to Adrian Peterson in Week 17.

Dec 28 - 12:27 AM

 

[Hoss Style]

I've got limited spots in my Keeper League. McKinnon is on the bubble (I don't really want to let him go).

 

[BobbyLayne]

Vikings should dump that starter and go with TB & youth. They play better - well, TB plays better - when ADP isn't in the game.

Team is shackled with ADP for two more years. Team would be better off if they moved on now.

 

[dirtyjay]

I know McKinnon had a good game, but Peterson ran for a score and 100+ too.

But its possible Petersons wheels will come off next year.

 

[FUBAR]

Vikings should dump that starter and go with TB & youth. They play better - well, TB plays better - when ADP isn't in the game.

Team is shackled with ADP for two more years. Team would be better off if they moved on now.

Yes his salary is huge, one could argue he's overpaid. But ADP is still the best back in the game and should be right up there again next year. Fwiw, I have McKinnon in my 32 team league and it would be huge if Peterson were to move on. But it won't happen.