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RB Joe Mixon, HOU (2 Viewers)

[scooter] said:
I said fantasy owners should consider replacing him, not the Bengals.

For example, I would have zero hesitation dropping Mixon for Cohen in a 10-12 team redraft league.
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Ok my mistake.

Talent evaluation is pretty individual, but at least to me even fantasy owners will have a very hard time finding a replacement more talented than Joe Mixon. This kid is in a fairly horrific fantasy situation (which we all knew when we drafted him) but I don't think talent is a problem.  If I were to list all of the NFL RBs who are more talented than Mixon I think that list is about 6 or 7 names long and Cohen--who I like--is nowhere close.  Your evaluation is clearly different.  This will all play out over time and if I've overvalued Mixon I'll be the first to admit it...

 
I still like Mixon over Hunt and would trade Hunt right now for Mixon + something. It's a perfect opportunity to make your team better. Smith will never hit Hunt like that in stride again for a long TD. Hunt is solid and in a good spot. I see flashes of special in Mixon that I don't see with Hunt. Again not saying Hunt is bad I just wasn't high on Mixon at first and then I watched his touches more closely in the preseason and now in the regular season and I like what I see. He'll be the RB to own in Cincy by week 8. 

 
Milkman said:
I still like Mixon over Hunt and would trade Hunt right now for Mixon + something. It's a perfect opportunity to make your team better. Smith will never hit Hunt like that in stride again for a long TD. Hunt is solid and in a good spot. I see flashes of special in Mixon that I don't see with Hunt. Again not saying Hunt is bad I just wasn't high on Mixon at first and then I watched his touches more closely in the preseason and now in the regular season and I like what I see. He'll be the RB to own in Cincy by week 8. 
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You didn't see flashes of special from Hunt last Thursday night? 

 
Concept Coop said:
You didn't see flashes of special from Hunt last Thursday night? 
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No. It's hard to say on here when they go off like that because people just want to LOL because OMG 40+ fantasy points but it's more complicated than that. Smith doesn't hit guys like that down the field ever and there was a bigger factor than Hunt's play that helped him go off like that. His name is Tyreek. 

I kill dynasty leagues making deals like My Hunt for your Mixon + Pryor.......

 
Milkman said:
No. It's hard to say on here when they go off like that because people just want to LOL because OMG 40+ fantasy points but it's more complicated than that. Smith doesn't hit guys like that down the field ever and there was a bigger factor than Hunt's play that helped him go off like that. His name is Tyreek. 

I kill dynasty leagues making deals like My Hunt for your Mixon + Pryor.......
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The long reception looked just like the routes and catches that got me excited about Mixon in college.  Hunt showed a very well rounded game, with power, quickness, patience and receiving ability.  It's not just about the raw numbers.  The kid looked really damn good.  Another poster made this comp, but it fits--is Devonte Freeman special?  And a comp for what I see as Mixon's floor--is Lamar Miller special?

Since we're making fake trades, here's my fake counter: Mixon for Hunt + Cohen.  

 
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[scooter] said:
Here's the difference between David Johnson and Joe Mixon: when a 3rd round rookie (with an ADP of 142) fails to beat out a 3-time Pro Bowl RB on a 13-win-team, it's not considered to be a sign that the rookie isn't going to be a good NFL player.

But when a 2nd round rookie (with an ADP of 45) fails to beat out a couple of mediocre RBs on a mediocre team, it should be considered to be a VERY troubling sign. And if the rookie averages just 2.7 YPC in his first 2 games, then fantasy owners should seriously consider replacing him with someone who shows more talent and more potential.

BTW, Johnson averaged 3.97 YPC before taking over as the feature back in Arizona, and he had 7 touchdowns despite only touching the ball 54 times on offense! Johnson was productive as a backup, Mixon (so far) is not.
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I think your pointing your aim at the wrong target.   Marvin Lewis's teams have historically been reluctant to play a newcomer over a vet.   This was referenced often leading up to this season in regards to Mixon's chances.   I still think he's a very special back and will force more playing time as things progress (or regress in terms of the team itself).   Hill has looked decent for short yardage situations, considering the line's ineptitude.   I think Bernard is getting used wrong and that Mixon should be getting a share of those snaps.  

 
Those are some pretty random comparisons. I don't see a lot of parallels between those players.

Hunt had a couple nice runs in week one, but not any better than plays Mixon has made in the preseason/regular season. His two really long gains came on a pass down the middle where he was wide open and a sweep around the edge where Kelce obliterated the only potential tackler. It's not like he was doing Adrian Peterson one man army stuff. He had one nice run around the edge where he made a guy miss, but his big gainers were not really "earned" yards based on his individual talent. They were more playcalling/context.

 
Concept Coop said:
The long reception looked just like the catches that got me excited about Mixon in college.  Hunt showed a very well rounded game, with power, quickness, patience and receiving ability.  It's not just about the raw numbers.  The kid looked really damn good.  Another poster made this comp, but it fits--is Devonte Freeman special?  And a comp for what I see as Mixon's floor--is Lamar Miller special?
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Freeman is a thorn in my side haha but I can't get them all right and I'll never like prospects like him ever.....when the exception hits like Freeman did i'll just lose that value....give me all the big backs that can move like small backs that I can fit on my roster though and Mixon fits that description......I hope he stays buried and I'll just keep trading for him everywhere. 

 
EBF said:
Those are some pretty random comparisons. I don't see a lot of parallels between those players.

Hunt had a couple nice runs in week one, but not any better than plays Mixon has made in the preseason/regular season. His two really long gains came on a pass down the middle where he was wide open and a sweep around the edge where Kelce obliterated the only potential tackler. It's not like he was doing Adrian Peterson one man army stuff. He had one nice run around the edge where he made a guy miss, but his big gainers were not really "earned" yards based on his individual talent. They were more playcalling/context.
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Miller was a physical freak who never played up to those traits, in large part due to his lack of vision, feel, and patience.  I see that as Mixon's floor. (But again, I really like Mixon.)

Take out both of the huge plays, Hunt still looked really good.  The guy showed an awsome jumpcut, he displayed more power than I expectd, he was patient and decisive, showed a nasty stiffarm, good hands--and he doesn't fumble and makes people miss at an elite clip.  He looked like a legit 3 down NFL RB on his first crack at it. 

 
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Bengals fired OC Ken Zampese.

The move reminds of Buffalo's post-Week 2 firing of OC Greg Roman in 2016, which didn't exactly have great results. Roman was the fall guy for the Bills' inept defense. This is different from that standpoint, though. Zampese's offense was completely inept in each of the first two games, failing to show any ability to compensate for obviously-deficient offensive line play, using a wholly ineffective three-way RBBC that somehow, inexplicably still employs Jeremy Hill, and failed to get A.J. Green the ball on a consistent basis. The Bengals have played two (home!) games and scored zero touchdowns. Whereas Roman's firing was questionable, this one is 100-percent deserved.
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Bengals promoted QBs coach Bill Lazor to offensive coordinator.

It's a move that shows support for Andy Dalton, replacing fired OC Ken Zampese in favor of Dalton's position coach. Lazor's hands were tied as a short-lived OC with the Dolphins, but he was also working under offensive-minded Joe Philbin, whose affinity was for passing at all costs. At his core, Lazor's roots reside with Joe Gibbs and Chip Kelly. We would expect him to focus on feeding A.J. Green and weed Jeremy Hill out of the RBBC
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You'd expect the offense to be simplified, Dalton back to throwing 40-45 times a game regardless of game script, and maybe FINALLY no more Hill "ceremonial start".

 
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socrates said:
Can Bill Lazor block?  Honestly, any OC is handicapped with that OL.
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From a fantasy prospective, I bought Mixon as a low RB2 with upside.  I just want to see him start getting 15+ touches per game as a starting RB should.  If Hill is weeded out and they start using Bernard in proper situational downs, I think Mixon can put up good RB2 numbers even with a bad line.

 
The Frankman said:
You'd expect the offense to be simplified, Dalton back to throwing 35-40 times a game, and maybe FINALLY no more Hill "ceremonial start".
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Hard to look worse than Zampese, but I liked the Lazor hire when he was brought in.   He didn't step into a very good position to succeed in Miami and has been well respected by many prior to that.   Still, I think this team is a mess from the top down. 

 
Lazor was in Miami and supposed to take that O to new heights under Philbin. Getting rid of any Zampeze is a good thing but I'm skeptical of Lazor. Not 100% certain but I think he's the guy that called 4 pass plays from the 1 yard line in Miami.

 
That OC change cannot be anything but better than what we have seen. From a 3 way committee on a horrid offense to almost anything has to have improvement written into to it. 

 
It escalated my plans to trade for Mixon definitely, Just had to deal away D. Thomas and Chris Carson for Christian McCaffery and Joe Mixon. Not sure if the owner received the news but its done. All in for better or worse!

 
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Milkman said:
No. It's hard to say on here when they go off like that because people just want to LOL because OMG 40+ fantasy points but it's more complicated than that. Smith doesn't hit guys like that down the field ever and there was a bigger factor than Hunt's play that helped him go off like that. His name is Tyreek. 

I kill dynasty leagues making deals like My Hunt for your Mixon + Pryor.......
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If you're a Mixon owner you have to hold unless you can get someone of similar talent in a better situation. I can't see trading Mixon and Pryor for Hunt. If I were to move Mixon for Hunt I'd expect to have another player put in the deal with Hunt. You kill dynasty leagues because you play with people that aren't very experienced (at least that's how you make it sound).

 
wait, Lazor was the QB coach and is now the OC? so the guy responsible for the poor QB play in the first place is now the guy calling the plays and running the offense??? this is going to be a fun train wreck to watch..

you guys should've headed the warnings about Mixon, Hill..the line was an issue. the coaching staff was an issue. Dalton was an issue. and yet you're all STILL hanging on to Mixon like he's some sort of super hero who'll swoop in and  save the day..the lights are on,the gate is down, but the train ain't comin'.

he has zero trade value, he's been badly outplayed by Gio Bernard, and he's 3rd on the depth chart. now he has a worse OC calling plays ..

his stats in Miami show that Lazor's offenses ranked dead last, 32nd in rush attempts, 23 in rush yards, 16 in rush TDs in 2015. in 2014, they were 22nd in att, 12th in yards, 14th in TDs.

he was hired as QB coach because he was lousy at OC, it should be considered a demotion. so now that same incapable coach has been elevated to OC and no one sees a problem with it??

Mixon's stats should get (far) worse, not better..

someone would actually consider trading Hunt for Mixon and Pryor?! wow. 

 
He's definitely a hold and anbench stash for now until further notice.  You can't trade him BC you won't get good value for him.  You can't play him BC of his situation and the team situation RT now.  

 
Man if they hire Gruden (pure wishing) his value will quadruple. With Lewis I'm guessing this team is going to quit. 

 
Jello_Biafra said:
If you're a Mixon owner you have to hold unless you can get someone of similar talent in a better situation. I can't see trading Mixon and Pryor for Hunt. If I were to move Mixon for Hunt I'd expect to have another player put in the deal with Hunt. You kill dynasty leagues because you play with people that aren't very experienced (at least that's how you make it sound).
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The deal I used was just quickly put together. The point is Hunt's value is probably as high as it's ever going to be. If you don't believe Hunt is an elite talent and you have a player you feel is an elite talent (mixon I'm still on the fence with) with suppressed value you can try to trade Hunt for that player + something and a lot of times short sighted owners will go for it. 

 
Tanner9919 said:
wait, Lazor was the QB coach and is now the OC? so the guy responsible for the poor QB play in the first place is now the guy calling the plays and running the offense??? this is going to be a fun train wreck to watch..

you guys should've headed the warnings about Mixon, Hill..the line was an issue. the coaching staff was an issue. Dalton was an issue. and yet you're all STILL hanging on to Mixon like he's some sort of super hero who'll swoop in and  save the day..the lights are on,the gate is down, but the train ain't comin'.

he has zero trade value, he's been badly outplayed by Gio Bernard, and he's 3rd on the depth chart. now he has a worse OC calling plays ..

his stats in Miami show that Lazor's offenses ranked dead last, 32nd in rush attempts, 23 in rush yards, 16 in rush TDs in 2015. in 2014, they were 22nd in att, 12th in yards, 14th in TDs.

he was hired as QB coach because he was lousy at OC, it should be considered a demotion. so now that same incapable coach has been elevated to OC and no one sees a problem with it??

Mixon's stats should get (far) worse, not better..

someone would actually consider trading Hunt for Mixon and Pryor?! wow. 
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How exactly can his stat line get FAR worse than 0 offensive TDs in 2 home games? If you had actually watched any of the actual plays you would have surely noticed that even with those putrid stats Mixon has looked really good as a runner, making guys miss and showing great patience, taking what yards he can get. Additionally, he looks like he'll be very durable.

 
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Tanner9919 said:
wait, Lazor was the QB coach and is now the OC? so the guy responsible for the poor QB play in the first place is now the guy calling the plays and running the offense??? this is going to be a fun train wreck to watch..

you guys should've headed the warnings about Mixon, Hill..the line was an issue. the coaching staff was an issue. Dalton was an issue. and yet you're all STILL hanging on to Mixon like he's some sort of super hero who'll swoop in and  save the day..the lights are on,the gate is down, but the train ain't comin'.

he has zero trade value, he's been badly outplayed by Gio Bernard, and he's 3rd on the depth chart. now he has a worse OC calling plays ..

his stats in Miami show that Lazor's offenses ranked dead last, 32nd in rush attempts, 23 in rush yards, 16 in rush TDs in 2015. in 2014, they were 22nd in att, 12th in yards, 14th in TDs.

he was hired as QB coach because he was lousy at OC, it should be considered a demotion. so now that same incapable coach has been elevated to OC and no one sees a problem with it??

Mixon's stats should get (far) worse, not better..

someone would actually consider trading Hunt for Mixon and Pryor?! wow. 
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I play dynasty so I tend to take a longer term focus but even for redraft the overreactions in this thread are incredible. Freaking out now is like asking a girl out on a date and then screaming in her face if she doesn't give you a handy j within the first 5 minutes. Patience boys, trust in your pre-draft evaluation and let things unfold a little.

I can't guarantee than Mixon will return his aggressive redraft ADP value but his production WILL get better and most likely a lot better 

 
Any homers or anyone else have anything to add on Mixon in ppr redraft?

He surprisingly showed up on the wire in one of my leagues this wk. I'm struggling with how much to bid. I could use rb help..who couldn't I guess :)

 
Magic_Man said:
Apparently, his value is high in dynasty. The Mixon owner offered him to me for Zeke straight up. No thank you.
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Haha, no it's not. His value would be high if you saw someone accept that trade. Making a ridiculous offer doesn't mean his value is that high. I could offer Higgins to the Julio owner...

But I'm surprised people are surprised by this slow start (and what I still expect will be a bad season). Even good RBs need some sort of offensive line and the Cincy line is awful. People who are in dynasty leagues should be carefully testing the waters with the Mixon owners in their leagues. Don't offend the owners or bug the crap out of them, but let it be known you're interested in case they get frustrated. Don't let someone else steal your buy low. But also don't expect anything out of him this season if you do acquire him. You just gotta hope Cincy sees the light and signs some OL this offseason.

Same plan could apply to Ross if you're a Ross believer. A deep threat on a team without an offensive line is a nonfactor. 

 
Mixon looks like the best RB on that team. It's ridiculous that the Bengals keep running out the plodding Hill, then going to a seemingly random rotation based on instructions from a ouija board. 

Hopefully with the new OC they'll start to feature Mixon. I've got no shares of that backfield mess, but as an AJG owner it sure would be nice to see the Bungles get their backfield running with some level of competence and efficiency - would help take a little pressure off of Dalton and make the entire offense less predictable. Constantly being in 2nd and long and 3rd and long because of Hill's 2 yards and a cloud of dust isn't helping anyone. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Mixon looks like the best RB on that team. It's ridiculous that the Bengals keep running out the plodding Hill, then going to a seemingly random rotation based on instructions from a ouija board. 

Hopefully with the new OC they'll start to feature Mixon. I've got no shares of that backfield mess, but as an AJG owner it sure would be nice to see the Bungles get their backfield running with some level of competence and efficiency - would help take a little pressure off of Dalton and make the entire offense less predictable. Constantly being in 2nd and long and 3rd and long because of Hill's 2 yards and a cloud of dust isn't helping anyone. 
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I expect that to be the case soon enough, but it really hasn't yet.  Hill has a yard on Mixon's YPC.  Mixon's been "2(.6) yards and a cloud of dust" himself.  

 
Concept Coop said:
I expect that to be the case soon enough, but it really hasn't yet.  Hill has a yard on Mixon's YPC.  Mixon's been "2(.6) yards and a cloud of dust" himself.  
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This is hard to look at in a vacuum with numerous carries for Mixon being when the game was under two minutes, down multiple scores and the Bengals were just trying to go home.

 
I actually just had someone OFFER for Mixon in a short bench league which surprised me.

I was going to drop White or Mixon in a PPR league Sunday for a DST.

I got offered Hyde for Tate and my choice of White/Mixon

I'm not sure who I'd rather keep.

 
Concept Coop said:
Fair enough--and I do think he's more talented than Hill.  But he simply hasn't done anything to put Hill on the bench yet.  
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Yeah. I don't think any three of the RBs have had a fair shot to get into a game flow.  Plus, the rotation feels like it's been determined pregame, regardless of the situation. Oh, 3 and out, sorry Joe, that was your series. You gotta wait 4 more series now. 

 
chad in Indy said:
Yeah. I don't think any three of the RBs have had a fair shot to get into a game flow.  Plus, the rotation feels like it's been determined pregame, regardless of the situation. Oh, 3 and out, sorry Joe, that was your series. You gotta wait 4 more series now. 
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That's been the biggest issue.

we know Hill will continue to look the same (or worse) if you give him 15+ touches. Because he did last year.

we don't know if Mixon will bust a big run or wear down a defense if given 15+ touches because he's getting 1-2 carries here and there with no rhyme or reason to it. 

But for now this is truly a RBBC from hell. You've got Bernard as a 3rd down back, who's inexplicably been brought in for short yardage conversions; and Mixon/Hill splitting 1st & 2nd down duties on a rotation that gives neither a chance to build up a head of steam. 

Worst designed rushing offense I've seen in a while. 

 
I guess I am in a minority of still being optimistic about Mixon's and Bengals in general. I believe Mixon workload is increasing (so too does the chance of a big play). Public opinion is now coercing changes until they find what works best. This all points to an upward swing with the team in general. Counterpoint is they "give up"? AJ speaking out and New OC are catalysts for a team that believes they can still compete plus as someone else already pointed out it shows they still care. I think buying low now on the Bengal skill positions will be very much a lesson in hindsight when the season is done with. But what do I know, I'm 0-2.

 
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Concept Coop said:
I expect that to be the case soon enough, but it really hasn't yet.  Hill has a yard on Mixon's YPC.  Mixon's been "2(.6) yards and a cloud of dust" himself.  
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Apart from the last game, when he had the most carries and nearly twice the YPC of the other backs.

Mixon has looked fine so far. Almost every week (including preseason) he's making moves and cuts that a lot of backs couldn't make to get extra yards. It doesn't really show in the YPC, but the sample size isn't huge and it only takes one big run to flip that. We haven't seen him get into the second level and really do some damage yet, but I'm sure it's coming.

Hard to say whether he'll have redraft value. I took him in my redraft league knowing that it might take him a few weeks to get moving, but that the payoff could be huge. He's already leading the team in carries after two weeks, but you'd like to see it be a higher % of the total and you'd like to see the Bengals offense do much better. They've been surprisingly awful so far in all facets. They are dead last in the NFL in points per game. I don't really see that lasting all season with the weapons they have, so I'm sure the big games are coming for some of their star players.

 
Hartliner said:
I guess I am in a minority of still being optimistic about Mixon's and Bengals in general. I believe Mixon workload is increasing (so too does the chance of a big play). Public opinion is now coercing changes until they find what works best. This all points to an upward swing with the team in general. Counterpoint is they "give up"? AJ speaking out and New OC are catalysts for a team that believes they can still compete plus as someone else already pointed out it shows they still care. I think buying low now on the Bengal skill positions will be very much a lesson in hindsight when the season is done with. But what do I know, I'm 0-2.
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If only it was that simple for bad teams to get good...everyone would be good

 
EBF said:
Apart from the last game, when he had the most carries and nearly twice the YPC of the other backs.
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If you want to cut the sample size in half--sure.  He was the most effective back last week and the least effective back the week before.  If I'm a Bengals fan, I want Mixon with the ball in his hands; certainly ahead of Hill--I get it.  I just think if we're going to talk about how Hill is a plodding bum, it's fair to point out that Mixon has yet to distance himself from--and is actually getting outgained per carry by--said bum.

 
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