The kid has talent but you have to agree that he is on a shorter leash than another player with no video on record. For example I have to believe that if Ezekiel Elliott had this kind of tape from 3-4 years ago we wouldn't be talking about a 6 game suspension, we would be talking about him getting kicked out of the league forever.
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RB Joe Mixon, HOU (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
matuski
Footballguy
Like he has been for the last 3 (or 4?) years.
And no - nobody has any rope these days if a video comes out of you smashing a girl's face.
He wouldn't have been on the OK football team nor even in the draft if the incident were recent.
You're misunderstanding what I'm saying. Of course if any NFL player smashes a girls face on video they're likely out of the league in a heartbeat. But players fail drug tests, get dui's, get caught with weed, get into fights...basically they do stupid ##### that's not nearly as bad as smashing a woman's face. But when they generally have a clean record and a great reputation to begin with they get a little slap o the wrist or suspension. When joe mixon does one of those bonehead moves he will likely be in hot water with his team and the league. And the fans.
matuski
Footballguy
I never said there wasn't a risk either.. to be clear.
I said it was overstated. I stand by that.
That's the risk. One slip up and he could never see the FL again. I rolled he dice tat he doesn't eff up.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
No, not like anyone. If Mixon pushes a waitress at a bar, he's done. If Deshaun Watson pushes a waitress at a bar, it will be called a "miscommunication" with an apology and a significant donation to the pocketbook of her choice and Goodell will suspend him to the bejesus belt.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
You're surprised? I think the minute he was drafted everyone knew Hill was the top of the depth chart...
chad in Indy
Footballguy
I was surprised that he is listed 3rd on depth chart. I never have understood a coach's incumbent approach. Andy Reid did the same thing w Jamaal Charles early in Charles' career. Not saying this is apples to apples, but Hill is a RB who won't win you a game, just won't lose it.
dnurk
Footballguy
I think coaches have to list veterans over rookies in the depth chart until the rookie "earns it." It's about commanding the respect of the whole team. MIxon is going to be awesome but has earned nothing in the NFL yet. Coach is going to make him prove it.
I think you can look at the preseason as a good indicator at what will happen. HIll does get the start but Mixon is in early and often. Kid is just too good to not get a big percentage of the touches.
I think you can look at the preseason as a good indicator at what will happen. HIll does get the start but Mixon is in early and often. Kid is just too good to not get a big percentage of the touches.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Third but really second because Gio is out...
I don't take much stock into who is the starter and who isn't. At the end of the day who is producing. Mixon could stay as the RB2 all season but get more carries than Hill. The starter is just who lines up on the first play in the backfield...
FWIW I agree, Hill won't win games.
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
If Bengals' OL doesn't pan out. It certainly poses a lot of questions for their offensive identity after playing dink-dunk offense last year.
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Moonshine
Footballguy
Unproven rookie behind a potentially porous OL competing for touches with two entrenched veterans. Could easily be a bust, but his potential is still RB1 status, so the risk was worth it for me.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I haven't seen much hype unless it was tempered with "bad O-line, 2 productive vets in front of him, risk of LT suspension" thrown in. He was clearly the 4th-6th rookie RB off the board depending on when your draft was held. ADP of 42 / RB 19 more or less held the same or slid a few spots over the last month.
For a guy some services ranked the #1 RB prospect coming out of h.s., seems pretty measured. He has a better skill set than either incumbent and can fulfill the role of pounder or pass catcher. Whether Marvin Lewis is confident using him as a 3-down back is debatable. He gave Gio a lot of touches as a rookie and Hill has 21 TDs in his first two years so I don't think you can say won't trust a rookie RB.
From my perspective, Hill seems like a plodder & Bernard doesn't look like himself coming off ACL. But I have no doubt all three will be part of the RBBC. I believe talent will win out but it might take a month or two to feel confident starting Mixon as your RB2. I'm not flexing him week 1, want to see how it shakes out.
EBF
Footballguy
I would imagine that he'll be at least a FF RB2 by the middle of October, if not sooner. That may be a conservative estimate. His ceiling is RB1 numbers from week 1 onward. He played on the first series in the third preseason game, so don't read too much into that "Hill is the starter" stuff. We know what Hill is and so do the Bengals, which is they took Mixon. Cincy might not have a good OL, but they're a good offense overall and Mixon can catch passes, which helps increase his floor quite a bit.
I got him in my redraft league and I think he's value at his ADP. Also bullish in dynasty. He can be a top 3-5 overall dynasty pick in a year or two. Not saying it's guaranteed, but he has that type of potential.
I got him in my redraft league and I think he's value at his ADP. Also bullish in dynasty. He can be a top 3-5 overall dynasty pick in a year or two. Not saying it's guaranteed, but he has that type of potential.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Polish Hammer
made of glass
Did Mixon have any injury issues in college?
OU#1
Footballguy
He got dinged a couple times but nothing major. More durable than Perine was, but Perine is a brusier so that's a little more expected.
Joe hasn't had a clean record since his punching incident. He threw a temper tantrum with a university cop over a parking ticket, and Stoops made him sit out a game because of it. I think he's a bit of a head case and I don't foresee him being perfect. However, I don't see him making another major mistake. People forget how young he was when the punch incident happened....not saying that's a valid excuse, but people seem to make better decisions as they get older.
Sir Psycho
Footballguy
Ben VolinVerified account @BenVolin 49m49 minutes ago
More
More 2017 NFL predictions: Patriots: 12-4
MVP: Russell Wilson
DPOY: Joey Bosa
Offensive Rookie: Joe Mixon
Defensive Rookie: Reuben Foster
More
More 2017 NFL predictions: Patriots: 12-4
MVP: Russell Wilson
DPOY: Joey Bosa
Offensive Rookie: Joe Mixon
Defensive Rookie: Reuben Foster
chad in Indy
Footballguy
Judging from the game so far, Mixon is gonna a have a tough time getting playing time w/o an injury to Hill or Gio. Sucks.
Gopher State
Footballguy
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![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Mixon could end up leading the team in snaps and touches if the game script works in his favor, but his workload will be difficult to predict week to week.
I don't think this will be the case. Marvin Lewis is not Bellichick or Sean Payton where RB usage is basically random week to week.
IMO Lewis is just old school wants Mixon to earn more carries with his performance during actual games....this was clearly not the case in week one. Once Mixon emerges and gains Lewis' trust, he will ride him increasingly more and more. It will have nothing to do with game script.
I don't think this will be the case. Marvin Lewis is not Bellichick or Sean Payton where RB usage is basically random week to week.
IMO Lewis is just old school wants Mixon to earn more carries with his performance during actual games....this was clearly not the case in week one. Once Mixon emerges and gains Lewis' trust, he will ride him increasingly more and more. It will have nothing to do with game script.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I only have one share of Mixon but I did not like what I saw in the brief glimpse this week. It's not so much the stat line as it is that his problem looked like EXACTLY what every scout mentioned they were most worried about with him (for those that were willing to read the scouting reports past the part about the punch of course).
Simply put, when there wasn't a gaping hole available right in front of him he looked completely lost and like he didn't know what to do. One carry in particular he kind of got the ball and just stood there dumbfounded. It was really weird to watch. There weren't huge holes there, but there were holes and Hill/Bernard had no problem finding them to at least pick up a few yards at a time.
Simply put, when there wasn't a gaping hole available right in front of him he looked completely lost and like he didn't know what to do. One carry in particular he kind of got the ball and just stood there dumbfounded. It was really weird to watch. There weren't huge holes there, but there were holes and Hill/Bernard had no problem finding them to at least pick up a few yards at a time.
Dizzy
Footballguy
Clearly CIN staff would like Mixon to takeover. 2nd round RBs are usually expected to come in and contribute if not be "the man"
Shouldn't have been difficult to unseat Hill... he's good, but nothing special... actually much closer to just good (than special) IMO.
I haven't been following Mixon to date, but how has he looked in pass protection/blitz pickup? Outside of ball security this is usually the final gate to pass through for a rookie RB to get more snaps.
Shouldn't have been difficult to unseat Hill... he's good, but nothing special... actually much closer to just good (than special) IMO.
I haven't been following Mixon to date, but how has he looked in pass protection/blitz pickup? Outside of ball security this is usually the final gate to pass through for a rookie RB to get more snaps.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
In a short bench league (4 spots) 12 team, I'm not sure I'll be able to hold all season. Hopefully he shows something tonight in his limited touches.
EBF
Footballguy
I'm bullish. You want your head coach saying stuff like this:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2732978-joe-mixon-way-better-than-i-expected-says-marvin-lewis
I liked what I saw in the preseason and I think he's going to bust out eventually. Benching him in redraft though until he shows something.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2732978-joe-mixon-way-better-than-i-expected-says-marvin-lewis
I liked what I saw in the preseason and I think he's going to bust out eventually. Benching him in redraft though until he shows something.
flysack
Footballguy
Obviously there's a thousand league-specific factors to consider here...but my guess is that if Mixon was drafted anywhere near his ADP the owner was expecting RB2 fairly soon.
Depending on the owner's record and RB bench strength, if the RBBC situation doesn't change I'd start lobbing in offers after week 3....if Cincy loses tonight they could easily be 0-3 after Green Bay. Marvin Lewis could be getting real nervous in that scenario and he may be more inclined to look to the rookie to save their season.
Of course, the moment Mixon breaks out the buy low window will be closed so there's always that...
flysack
Footballguy
I own him in a dynasty league. It'd take a boatload of good to pry him until maybe a wretched performance through the first 10-12 weeks. If he's shown nothing and gets reduced playing time, I'd let him go. But who would want him by then anyway? So I won't be trading him this year no matter what. In for the ride.
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socrates
Footballguy
Good post.
I had Mixon as my number 3 rookie several weeks back, but I have to confess, I have him ranked for dynasty behind Cook and Hunt now (and behind Fournette, McCaffrey and Corey Davis). Is that too reactionary?
Hypothetically, if the Kareem Hunt owner offered you Hunt for Mixon and something, would you bite? What about Dalvin Cook? What if you were offered Kamara straight across for Mixon? Mixon's dynasty value certainly has not disappeared after one week, but it has arguably waned some from where it was only a few short weeks ago, when he was a top 3 rookie pick.
Hartliner
Footballguy
Yes, It is too reactionary IMO, remember its only 1 week we got a lot of season left. Its easy to forget that patience is the most important trait you can have with fantasy situations like these. Yes, we know Mixon is the best back, but he does have to prove it in a game. I have no doubt that the cream will eventually rise to the top but, we(coach and fans) need to see it first so they can justify bumping up his share. I was in the camp that said, Mixon was a third round talent and still see him as such but, you have to wait until it becomes clear.
If you own him you should get ready for a potentially long wait, but by week 5 I expect results. Best to try and buy him now for a Jstew or some other low end RB2 or RB3 to get a potential difference maker for this year. He's dynamite for redraft. Dynasty its even better yet.
socrates
Footballguy
Thanks for the response.
I absolutely agree that patience is necessary, especially when dealing with rookies. I am certainly not ready to write off Mixon. I still rate him as a potentially elite RB. I think it would be too reactionary to give up on Mixon.
Where would you rate Mixon (for dynasty purposes) among the likes of Fournette, McCaffrey, C. Davis, Hunt and Cook? Do Week 1 performances not factor in?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I am hoping the Mixon owner in my league gives up. He has late season darling written all over him. I may throw a few trade offers his way...
EBF
Footballguy
Wouldn't even consider it.
Way too reactionary IMO. Mixon smokes Hunt from a talent standpoint. Mixon looked good this preseason. Way too early to move the needle much.
The only guy who has really jumped up my board is Cohen and that's only because I was asleep at the wheel with him.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
FWIW, it took Zeke a couple weeks to wait for his holes last season. As a Cowboys fan, I remember being worried about him this time last season. Granted, Zeke didn't have those issues on this scouting report, but hopefully things slow for Mixon soon.
EBF
Footballguy
In redraft, I take Hunt just because the system and the opportunity.
In dynasty, I reject it without even thinking twice. If you think a guy is a rung higher from a talent standpoint, you don't let the short term term affect your assessment. One week in the NFL means literally nothing. The only thing you can say for Hunt is that if he puts together a strong season and Mixon is in RBBC, Hunt will have a higher startup value in the offseason even if he's not actually the better player. Doesn't in any way mean he'll have the better career #s when we look back 6-7 years down the line.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think Hunt has Michael Thomas potential, in that way. This time next year, he should be an easy sell, should you decide to cash in, as a 23 YO 3-down Andy Reid back. I absolutely respect your call, but have Hunt over Mixon right now--and it feels a lot like moving Thomas over Coleman last season.
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Crystalsteam99
Footballguy
That won't come close to happening until they do something about that offensive line......
