RB Joe Mixon, HOU (1 Viewer)

[Big Nate]

About a good of a sunset send off as Mixon owners could have received. Wish I owned a share as this is a boost in value imo.

I agree that this is as good of a landing spot as he could have had. As a Mixon owner I'm pretty happy with this as things could have gone south. Now I'm not sure about a boost in value. Each year with aging RBs things seem to slow down. For me I would say if he equals his recent production I will be happy.

I don't expect a boost in production and he's a year old so not sure his dynasty value is really boosted much. The difference is now maybe you can trade him to a RB needy team where before things were up in the air.

If you are contending and have him you can be pretty happy if you can plug him in your RB2 spot or even a flex spot and get decent production.

 

[JoeSteeler]

Any recent trades?

 

[pinkstapler]

Any recent trades?

Not very recent, but I moved him last off season for a 2024 2nd and a 2025 2nd. Was a bit of an undersell at the time, but I was flush with RBs and eager to move on from an older one I felt was in decline getting by on very high usage (not to mention some of the off the field drama and potential legal issues were still undecided). IMO his averages and even tape continued looking pedestrian/inefficient, but pedestrian averages on 300+ touch counts, lots of work in the passing game, all red zone work, and no backfield competition still landed him as a top 10 RB lol.

Nevertheless I was happy to have gotten out a year early with 2 higher value picks than a year late and nothing. But now that he landed in the Texan's offense, and also got paid pretty darn well considering the state of the RB market, who knows. I do think he'll need to maintain a very high touch count (and also not fall off the cliff) to repeat another top 10 season. I would probably value him around a single mid 2nd this year in a deeper draft class, but wouldn't pay it unless I was in RB need and a serious contender. I think a lot of rookie drafts you could land Corum/Benson/Brooks with that pick this year and get younger with similar talent.

 

[smbkrypt24]

Any recent trades?

traded him for a 2025 1st and 2nd. Both very late picks

 

[Big Nate]

Any recent trades?

traded him for a 2025 1st and 2nd. Both very late picks

I feel that is a very good return you got for him due to his age. Even if he has a good year, his age will catch up at some point.

I'm still torn, ride him one more year and try to run it back or get something for him now. I don't see me getting even a 1st at this point but maybe at the start of the season when people need to plug the RBs into their starting spots.

 

[Buckna]

Was offered McLaurin for him in one league, but passed. McL is worth more IMO but I already own him in multiple other leagues and hoping to move Mixon for someone/something younger as this is a rebuilding team

 

[Loipz]

Yeah if anyone’s giving a 1+2 for mixon at this point you gotta take that and run

 

[JoeSteeler]

Appreciate the replies.

 

[TheWinz]

Since sharing the backfield with Giovani Bernard as a rookie in 2017, Mixon has been a true workhorse. In 83 games from 2018 thru 2023, he racked up 1646 touches, averaging 19.8 touches per game. In that same span, the other CIN RB's combined for 462 touches, averaging 5.6 touches per game. I know lots of people are saying he lost a step last year, but did he ever really have one? Heck, Jerome Bettis, Christian Okoye, Brandon Jacobs, and Ironhead Heyward all have longer carries to their names. When you consider his career YPC is barely over 4, you have to wonder why CIN rode him for 7 years. I think one of the answers is that they trusted him, and he is decent in all aspects of the game.

Now, I don't know how HOU plans to divvy up the RB touches, but it was quite telling how fast Devin Singletary took the lead role from Dameon Pierce, and there has to be a reason behind that. I am not a dynasty player, but would love to have Mixon as my RB3 for 2024, and if I am light at RB, perhaps even a RB2.

Mixon - born 24 July 1996, 1854 touches
McCaffrey - born 7 June 1996, 1806 touches

 

[pinkstapler]

Since sharing the backfield with Giovani Bernard as a rookie in 2017, Mixon has been a true workhorse. In 83 games from 2018 thru 2023, he racked up 1646 touches, averaging 19.8 touches per game. In that same span, the other CIN RB's combined for 462 touches, averaging 5.6 touches per game. I know lots of people are saying he lost a step last year, but did he ever really have one? Heck, Jerome Bettis, Christian Okoye, Brandon Jacobs, and Ironhead Heyward all have longer carries to their names. When you consider his career YPC is barely over 4, you have to wonder why CIN rode him for 7 years. I think one of the answers is that they trusted him, and he is decent in all aspects of the game.

Now, I don't know how HOU plans to divvy up the RB touches, but it was quite telling how fast Devin Singletary took the lead role from Dameon Pierce, and there has to be a reason behind that. I am not a dynasty player, but would love to have Mixon as my RB3 for 2024, and if I am light at RB, perhaps even a RB2.

Mixon - born 24 July 1996, 1854 touches
McCaffrey - born 7 June 1996, 1806 touches

I'd say the bolded is nail on the head. I think the only thing he is really below average at is protecting the QB. Meanwhile he excels at protecting the ball and not putting up negative plays. Again, kinda low bar of expectations, but in a high powered offense that doesn't need a RB to make explosive plays to win; those two things wind up very high on a coaches priority list. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if Mixon wound up an RB1 or very close again this year if he gets the touches. Likely a value pick in redraft, and to those in dynasty competing for a ship.

 

[Faust]

Texans GM Nick Caserio on RB Joe Mixon trade: 'We're glad he's here hopefully for a few more years'

 

[GregR]

Now, I don't know how HOU plans to divvy up the RB touches, but it was quite telling how fast Devin Singletary took the lead role from Dameon Pierce, and there has to be a reason behind that.

Pierce was struggling to adjust to the outside run, zone blocking scheme. He was struggling to make the reads necessary in it, compared to the power gap scheme the year before. Whether he can be better with a year of familiarity is anyone's guess.

 

[jm192]

The offense will be quite a bit better than what he was working with last year.
Going from a backup QB to Stroud will help.

That being said, he's been around 4 ypc for the last 5 seasons. I don't think we see a huge efficiency jump.

Will they use him AS heavily? Singletary only got 216 rushes. Mixon has been running around 250+ most of his time in Cincy. Texans lost 8 games last year. If they're playing ahead more, they may very well run the ball more.

I'm gonna guess he's around 240 carries give or take 10. At around 4 yards per carry, he's gonna land at 960 rushing yards. He's averaged 8 TD's the last 2 years. I think that's a reasonable number to expect with how good the Houston offense is. Maybe 1 or 2 more.

He's a very good pass catching back. But Stroud didn't throw to the RB's a ton in 2023. I'm gonna guess around 2 catches per game. That's a little better than what Singletary did. Now they have Nico who morphed into a star, Diggs, Dell out of the slot. There may just not be a ton of RB looks in the passing game. Around his average of ~7.3 ypr. He's been good for 2-3 passing TD's each of the last 2 years.

Say...

240 for 960 and 9
36 for 263 yards, 2 touchdowns

1223 yards, 11 touchdowns.

I'm debating between Kamara/Achane/Mixon for RB13-15. But I'm starting to think that's the exact order.

 

[travdogg]

I'm debating between Kamara/Achane/Mixon for RB13-15. But I'm starting to think that's the exact order.

I'd probably have Kamara at the bottom of that trio, but I'm viewing Achane as multiple tiers better than Mixon/Kamara. I see those guys as 5th round types, Achane makes sense in round 2 to me, not that you'll have to take him that high. But I can see things breaking right for Achane as an RB1 pretty easily, I have a hard time seeing that for Mixon/Kamara, unless they have massive TD outlier seasons like Mixon had in 2021, and Kamara had in 2020.

Also just think NO offense has nowhere near the upside of the Mia/Hou offenses.

 

[jm192]

I'm debating between Kamara/Achane/Mixon for RB13-15. But I'm starting to think that's the exact order.

I'd probably have Kamara at the bottom of that trio, but I'm viewing Achane as multiple tiers better than Mixon/Kamara. I see those guys as 5th round types, Achane makes sense in round 2 to me, not that you'll have to take him that high. But I can see things breaking right for Achane as an RB1 pretty easily, I have a hard time seeing that for Mixon/Kamara, unless they have massive TD outlier seasons like Mixon had in 2021, and Kamara had in 2020.

Also just think NO offense has nowhere near the upside of the Mia/Hou offenses.

I agree the offense is better. And I may come around to Achane being higher. We're still really early in the process.

While I think Achane takes on a bigger role in 2024, I think Mostert is still a big part of what they're wanting to do. I worry about the workload. And while I certainly appreciate the "he doesn't need 20 touches to succeed" argument, Achane's success last year was in large part thanks to ridiculous--seemingly unsustainable efficiency. I don't think he's able to maintain nearly 8 yards per touch. I don't think he's going to maintain 1 touchdown per game. I also worry at his size, he's going to be more prone to injury and missing time than other guys.

In the Kamara thread I shared: He finished as RB 14 while playing in 13 games. Over a full 17 games, he would have been the RB2 overall. A big part of that is the ridiculous passing game usage. Carr is back. Kubiak comes from being the passing coordinator for SF--where CMC got 5 targets and 4+ receptions per game. I liked Kendre Miller coming out. I'm just not sure they're prepared to use him a lot. This could be Kamara's last year in NO. I fully expect they'll get everything they can out of him. He only had 6 touchdowns. He doesn't need a crazy TD number to be a RB1.

 

[menobrown]

The offense will be quite a bit better than what he was working with last year.
Going from a backup QB to Stroud will help.

Maybe better but I was listening to a podcast a few days ago and they were saying Mixon was RB6 in expected points last year, I assume using a half point PPR model. Was Hayden Winks on Underdog and I don't listen to that podcast often or know exactly how he comes to that data point but seems like he's simply leaving one favorable situation for another one but consensus opinon seems to be that he went from the outhouse to the penthouse.

 

[Big Nate]

The offense will be quite a bit better than what he was working with last year.
Going from a backup QB to Stroud will help.

That being said, he's been around 4 ypc for the last 5 seasons. I don't think we see a huge efficiency jump.

Will they use him AS heavily? Singletary only got 216 rushes. Mixon has been running around 250+ most of his time in Cincy. Texans lost 8 games last year. If they're playing ahead more, they may very well run the ball more.

I'm gonna guess he's around 240 carries give or take 10. At around 4 yards per carry, he's gonna land at 960 rushing yards. He's averaged 8 TD's the last 2 years. I think that's a reasonable number to expect with how good the Houston offense is. Maybe 1 or 2 more.

He's a very good pass catching back. But Stroud didn't throw to the RB's a ton in 2023. I'm gonna guess around 2 catches per game. That's a little better than what Singletary did. Now they have Nico who morphed into a star, Diggs, Dell out of the slot. There may just not be a ton of RB looks in the passing game. Around his average of ~7.3 ypr. He's been good for 2-3 passing TD's each of the last 2 years.

Say...

240 for 960 and 9
36 for 263 yards, 2 touchdowns

1223 yards, 11 touchdowns.

I'm debating between Kamara/Achane/Mixon for RB13-15. But I'm starting to think that's the exact order.

I like the attempt at the breakdown and your thinking behind it. Always like see what people think the projections could be and something realistic rather than if they smash and hit their ceiling.

Having said that I do wonder about CIN run blocking and schemes. Perine with 100 carries only had a 4.15 ypc. Chase Brown in his limited time last year only had a 4.07 ypc. I'd watch CIN try to run the ball and it didn't really matter who the RB was it just wasn't great.

Maybe Mixon just does Mixon things like you said and plods around his average but maybe there is some room for improvement from him. I was never really impressed with how CIN ran the ball - didn't matter who they tried at RB.

 

[cheese]

The biggest thing about Mixon is his durability. Hes started over 50 games the last 3 seasons. Plenty of better RBs out there that will be more explosive, but at the end of the day Mixon will finish in the top 10 RBs with 1k yards mostly by winning the battle of attrition and accumulating 17 weeks of points.

 

[Apple Juice]

Plus he has always dominated touches and is versatile catching the ball. No matter what the defense is doing he has avenues to contribute and therefore rarely puts up duds. After Cincy moved on from a broken down Burrow last year Mixon scored at least one TD in 8 out of 10 games to finish the season.

 

[Faust]

Texans lean on Joe Mixon to fill in missing piece of offense

 

[Faust]

Cody Stoots
Joe Mixon said he worked out as hard as he ever has this offseason getting ready for his role. He called his role unique in the offense. He seems ready to be near the tops in carries. #Texans

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[Faust]

The Coachspeak Index
#Texans HC DeMeco Ryans on Joe Mixon’s abilities in the passing game:

“Joe as a receiving running back, that’s what sets him apart. Everybody understands the running game, how physical he is and how he’s able to gain yards even when it’s not blocked well… But he has really good hands out of the backfield and he’s a guy that if it’s not open down the field, we can check the ball down and he’s a reliable guy who can get us explosives in the passing game as well.”

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[BIRDGANG52]

I think he's going to have a lousy year. Not everyone is going to meet or exceed projections. I think he's in for a bad time. From what I recall, that o-line didn't block that well last year. Damien Pierce averaged 2.9 YPC after averaging 4.3 YPC the year before. You could probably average 2.9 YPC if you tried your hardest, lol.

That to me is reason to be concerned that a guy who was traded for a 7th rounder is going to come in and change life in Houston. Damien Pierce didn't just somehow get worse. Devin Singletary had the worst YPC in his career behind that o-line last year. I don't know if they did anything to improve their o-line, but both Houston RB had the lowest YPC of their careers last year behind that line and Joe Mixon averaged a ho, hum 4.0 YPC in Cincinatti. If I am wrong, please correct me, but it would seem to me that Joe Mixon is going to be dragged into some kind of YPC blackhole in Houston.


The passing game should be good and there may be ample redzone opportunities which I would expect Mixon to be the guy. If he score 8 - 10 touchdowns, then it won't matter if he only averages 3.6 YPC, right? I just don't think the 7th Round Pick he was traded for is going to show up and change life. I would pencil him into do exactly what Singletary did last year, with potentially more touches. Where that puts him relative to his ADP, I don't know because he is firmly on my DND list.

 

[Big Nate]

I think he's going to have a lousy year. Not everyone is going to meet or exceed projections. I think he's in for a bad time. From what I recall, that o-line didn't block that well last year. Damien Pierce averaged 2.9 YPC after averaging 4.3 YPC the year before. You could probably average 2.9 YPC if you tried your hardest, lol.

That to me is reason to be concerned that a guy who was traded for a 7th rounder is going to come in and change life in Houston. Damien Pierce didn't just somehow get worse. Devin Singletary had the worst YPC in his career behind that o-line last year. I don't know if they did anything to improve their o-line, but both Houston RB had the lowest YPC of their careers last year behind that line and Joe Mixon averaged a ho, hum 4.0 YPC in Cincinatti. If I am wrong, please correct me, but it would seem to me that Joe Mixon is going to be dragged into some kind of YPC blackhole in Houston.


The passing game should be good and there may be ample redzone opportunities which I would expect Mixon to be the guy. If he score 8 - 10 touchdowns, then it won't matter if he only averages 3.6 YPC, right? I just don't think the 7th Round Pick he was traded for is going to show up and change life. I would pencil him into do exactly what Singletary did last year, with potentially more touches. Where that puts him relative to his ADP, I don't know because he is firmly on my DND list.

Tunsil was hurt last year. He had his knee cleaned up this offseason and will be a boost to their O-line.

Mixon is better than Pierce and Singletary.

What does a 7th round pick matter with production on the field?

HOU added Diggs to their already good passing attack. Defenses will have their hands full trying to stop the passing attack leaving more room for Mixon to work. Their offense will have lots of opportunities to score TDs. Mixon flirts with 10+ TDs (total) each year. Mixon can also catch passes (50+ receptions the past 2 years). 82% catch rate and the coaching staff recently singing his praises catching out of the backfield.

Mixon is currently going in the 4th and sometimes 5th round. As long as Mixon is healthy he should get the majority (60-65%) of the workload as he can play on all 3 downs.

Depending how your first 3-4 rounds of the draft go (WR heavy, maybe a QB or TE mixed in) Mixon is fine for being your RB1 that you snag in the 4th/5th. Veteran player that the coaches love and trust. Stroud will be happy having a vet RB that he can count on.

My only concern is his hammy and that it could linger if he doesn't take care of it. Coaching staff seem to be taking it slow so that is good.

Mixon has finished as an RB1 (top 12) 5 of the past 6 seasons. Only season he didn't was when he only played 6 games. He's currently going off the board in drafts around RB15-17. Seems like a good price for a starting RB depending how your draft starts and if you need an RB.

 

[BIRDGANG52]

I think he's going to have a lousy year. Not everyone is going to meet or exceed projections. I think he's in for a bad time. From what I recall, that o-line didn't block that well last year. Damien Pierce averaged 2.9 YPC after averaging 4.3 YPC the year before. You could probably average 2.9 YPC if you tried your hardest, lol.

That to me is reason to be concerned that a guy who was traded for a 7th rounder is going to come in and change life in Houston. Damien Pierce didn't just somehow get worse. Devin Singletary had the worst YPC in his career behind that o-line last year. I don't know if they did anything to improve their o-line, but both Houston RB had the lowest YPC of their careers last year behind that line and Joe Mixon averaged a ho, hum 4.0 YPC in Cincinatti. If I am wrong, please correct me, but it would seem to me that Joe Mixon is going to be dragged into some kind of YPC blackhole in Houston.


The passing game should be good and there may be ample redzone opportunities which I would expect Mixon to be the guy. If he score 8 - 10 touchdowns, then it won't matter if he only averages 3.6 YPC, right? I just don't think the 7th Round Pick he was traded for is going to show up and change life. I would pencil him into do exactly what Singletary did last year, with potentially more touches. Where that puts him relative to his ADP, I don't know because he is firmly on my DND list.

What does a 7th round pick matter with production on the field?

Generally speaking, there is a correlation between talent and draft pick compensation.

A 7th round pick is about as low as it gets without cutting a player outright. When the league says they'd rather cut a guy or have a useless 7th rounder for him, it usually means that the road is coming to an end for that player. Texans are only paying $5,000,000 for this guy this year and Bengals didn't even want to pay that. The guy they took in the 2nd Round they decided they would rather ship away for a 7th Rounder than pay $5,000,000.


Dalvin Cook in New York is a good parallel. Everyone was telling me until they were blue in the face that Cook only got cut due to not wanting to take a pay cut and that he was "still a good RB". Then he hits the field and it's revealed that the old RB had lost a step and was totally cashed.

 

[Payne]

I think he's going to have a lousy year. Not everyone is going to meet or exceed projections. I think he's in for a bad time. From what I recall, that o-line didn't block that well last year. Damien Pierce averaged 2.9 YPC after averaging 4.3 YPC the year before. You could probably average 2.9 YPC if you tried your hardest, lol.

That to me is reason to be concerned that a guy who was traded for a 7th rounder is going to come in and change life in Houston. Damien Pierce didn't just somehow get worse. Devin Singletary had the worst YPC in his career behind that o-line last year. I don't know if they did anything to improve their o-line, but both Houston RB had the lowest YPC of their careers last year behind that line and Joe Mixon averaged a ho, hum 4.0 YPC in Cincinatti. If I am wrong, please correct me, but it would seem to me that Joe Mixon is going to be dragged into some kind of YPC blackhole in Houston.


The passing game should be good and there may be ample redzone opportunities which I would expect Mixon to be the guy. If he score 8 - 10 touchdowns, then it won't matter if he only averages 3.6 YPC, right? I just don't think the 7th Round Pick he was traded for is going to show up and change life. I would pencil him into do exactly what Singletary did last year, with potentially more touches. Where that puts him relative to his ADP, I don't know because he is firmly on my DND list.

Defenses this year will plan to stop the pass. Especially now that they added Diggs. Should open up running lanes and underneath passes.

Mixon, Jacobs and Walker are all guys I am targeting.

 

[Big Nate]

I think he's going to have a lousy year. Not everyone is going to meet or exceed projections. I think he's in for a bad time. From what I recall, that o-line didn't block that well last year. Damien Pierce averaged 2.9 YPC after averaging 4.3 YPC the year before. You could probably average 2.9 YPC if you tried your hardest, lol.

That to me is reason to be concerned that a guy who was traded for a 7th rounder is going to come in and change life in Houston. Damien Pierce didn't just somehow get worse. Devin Singletary had the worst YPC in his career behind that o-line last year. I don't know if they did anything to improve their o-line, but both Houston RB had the lowest YPC of their careers last year behind that line and Joe Mixon averaged a ho, hum 4.0 YPC in Cincinatti. If I am wrong, please correct me, but it would seem to me that Joe Mixon is going to be dragged into some kind of YPC blackhole in Houston.


The passing game should be good and there may be ample redzone opportunities which I would expect Mixon to be the guy. If he score 8 - 10 touchdowns, then it won't matter if he only averages 3.6 YPC, right? I just don't think the 7th Round Pick he was traded for is going to show up and change life. I would pencil him into do exactly what Singletary did last year, with potentially more touches. Where that puts him relative to his ADP, I don't know because he is firmly on my DND list.

What does a 7th round pick matter with production on the field?

Generally speaking, there is a correlation between talent and draft pick compensation.

A 7th round pick is about as low as it gets without cutting a player outright. When the league says they'd rather cut a guy or have a useless 7th rounder for him, it usually means that the road is coming to an end for that player. Texans are only paying $5,000,000 for this guy this year and Bengals didn't even want to pay that.


Dalvin Cook in New York is a good parallel. Everyone was telling me until they were blue in the face that Cook only got cut due to not wanting to take a pay cut and that he was "still a good RB". Then he hits the field and it's revealed that the old RB had lost a step and was totally cashed.

CIN was done with Mixon and would have taken a bag of balls. Not due to talent but his offseason/off-field stuff. He was RB5 last year.

An older RB could hit the wall. Maybe this is his swan song? But he was RB5 last year and going to a very good offense in HOU. CIN wanted out - not due to talent or skill.

 

[Big Nate]

I think he's going to have a lousy year. Not everyone is going to meet or exceed projections. I think he's in for a bad time. From what I recall, that o-line didn't block that well last year. Damien Pierce averaged 2.9 YPC after averaging 4.3 YPC the year before. You could probably average 2.9 YPC if you tried your hardest, lol.

That to me is reason to be concerned that a guy who was traded for a 7th rounder is going to come in and change life in Houston. Damien Pierce didn't just somehow get worse. Devin Singletary had the worst YPC in his career behind that o-line last year. I don't know if they did anything to improve their o-line, but both Houston RB had the lowest YPC of their careers last year behind that line and Joe Mixon averaged a ho, hum 4.0 YPC in Cincinatti. If I am wrong, please correct me, but it would seem to me that Joe Mixon is going to be dragged into some kind of YPC blackhole in Houston.


The passing game should be good and there may be ample redzone opportunities which I would expect Mixon to be the guy. If he score 8 - 10 touchdowns, then it won't matter if he only averages 3.6 YPC, right? I just don't think the 7th Round Pick he was traded for is going to show up and change life. I would pencil him into do exactly what Singletary did last year, with potentially more touches. Where that puts him relative to his ADP, I don't know because he is firmly on my DND list.

Defenses this year will plan to stop the pass. Especially now that they added Diggs. Should open up running lanes and underneath passes.

Mixon, Jacobs and Walker are all guys I am targeting.

Unbelievable value on these guys right now. I wish my last 2 drafts were now and not in 1.5 weeks. Walker especially - he's going to outproduce his ADP.

If I'm going WR heavy these are all teh RBs that are going to get a full workload if healthy. For an RB all you need is volume.

 

[BIRDGANG52]

I think he's going to have a lousy year. Not everyone is going to meet or exceed projections. I think he's in for a bad time. From what I recall, that o-line didn't block that well last year. Damien Pierce averaged 2.9 YPC after averaging 4.3 YPC the year before. You could probably average 2.9 YPC if you tried your hardest, lol.

That to me is reason to be concerned that a guy who was traded for a 7th rounder is going to come in and change life in Houston. Damien Pierce didn't just somehow get worse. Devin Singletary had the worst YPC in his career behind that o-line last year. I don't know if they did anything to improve their o-line, but both Houston RB had the lowest YPC of their careers last year behind that line and Joe Mixon averaged a ho, hum 4.0 YPC in Cincinatti. If I am wrong, please correct me, but it would seem to me that Joe Mixon is going to be dragged into some kind of YPC blackhole in Houston.


The passing game should be good and there may be ample redzone opportunities which I would expect Mixon to be the guy. If he score 8 - 10 touchdowns, then it won't matter if he only averages 3.6 YPC, right? I just don't think the 7th Round Pick he was traded for is going to show up and change life. I would pencil him into do exactly what Singletary did last year, with potentially more touches. Where that puts him relative to his ADP, I don't know because he is firmly on my DND list.

What does a 7th round pick matter with production on the field?

Generally speaking, there is a correlation between talent and draft pick compensation.

A 7th round pick is about as low as it gets without cutting a player outright. When the league says they'd rather cut a guy or have a useless 7th rounder for him, it usually means that the road is coming to an end for that player. Texans are only paying $5,000,000 for this guy this year and Bengals didn't even want to pay that.


Dalvin Cook in New York is a good parallel. Everyone was telling me until they were blue in the face that Cook only got cut due to not wanting to take a pay cut and that he was "still a good RB". Then he hits the field and it's revealed that the old RB had lost a step and was totally cashed.

CIN was done with Mixon and would have taken a bag of balls. Not due to talent but his offseason/off-field stuff. He was RB5 last year.

An older RB could hit the wall. Maybe this is his swan song? But he was RB5 last year and going to a very good offense in HOU. CIN wanted out - not due to talent or skill.

You're free to believe that if you want, but I don't. In reverse order, his YPC for his career has been:

4.0, 3.9, 4.1, 3.6, 4.1, 4.9, 3.5


If there is any off the field stuff, I'm not aware of it. I'm more convinced the Bengals didn't want to overpay for a 4.0 YPC carry guy with a ton of carries at the age where RB start to break down.

They could draft a kid or bring in a free agent for less money to do exactly what Mixon has done the last few years and that's exactly what they did. I don't even know if Mixon is better than Devin Singletary at this point in his career.

His name carries more credibility than his actual talent at this point, imo. Bengals were probably doing cartwheels when somebody said they were interested in him and they got out of that contract with $0.00 in dead cap hit.



Bengals made him take a paycut of $3,000,000 in 2023. Seems that they had not been happy with his production for awhile.


ETA: That article does cover a few gun incidents, so I'll concede that point to you. That probably played a role, but the two don't need to be mutually exclusive. It can be both! "Our underperforming RB keeps running around with a gun. We gotta get rid of this guy!"

Mixon: Pay cut a 'sacrifice' for Bengals' title run

Bengals running back Joe Mixon said "the bigger picture" led to him agreeing to restructure his contract, saying, "I felt like this was the year to sacrifice on the Super Bowl team we can potentially be."

www.espn.com

 

[BIRDGANG52]

In March, a teenager was shot in the foot from Mixon's backyard while he was playing with a toy gun at around 8:30 p.m. While Mixon was never a suspect and did not fire any shots, one man was indicted for felonious assault.

In April, Mixon was charged with misdemeanor aggravated menacing after he allegedly pointed a gun at a woman in a road-rage incident. He pleaded not guilty, and the trial is set for Aug. 14.



This guy is a ****ing nut.

 

[Big Nate]

I really don't care about YPC - that doesn't give me fantasy points. He's been a RB1 every season he's been healthy. He's getting volume. He's better than the other RBs on the roster.

He is a nut and that is why CIN let him go. I said it above. It isn't new.

You are getting Mixon at a discount because of his age and his hammy injury. Is it risky? Sure, but so is every RB. At least he doesn't cost you a top 3 round pick. Good value for a workhorse back on a good team.

 

[BIRDGANG52]

I really don't care about YPC - that doesn't give me fantasy points. He's been a RB1 every season he's been healthy.

He is a nut and that is why CIN let him go. I said it above. It isn't new.

You are getting Mixon at a discount because of his age and his hammy injury. Is it risky? Sure, but so is every RB. At least he doesn't cost you a top 3 round pick. Good value for a workhorse back on a good team.

I am trying to agree with you. You provided me with information that enhanced my understanding of the situation. I'm on your side. They may have been willing to pay him $5,000,000 if he wasn't terrorizing the community.

I didn't have all the information at first. Thank you for providing it. Sometimes it's not all stats, there's a human element to it. I hope you have a special day.

 

[Big Nate]

I really don't care about YPC - that doesn't give me fantasy points. He's been a RB1 every season he's been healthy.

He is a nut and that is why CIN let him go. I said it above. It isn't new.

You are getting Mixon at a discount because of his age and his hammy injury. Is it risky? Sure, but so is every RB. At least he doesn't cost you a top 3 round pick. Good value for a workhorse back on a good team.

I am trying to agree with you. You provided me with information that enhanced my understanding of the situation. I'm on your side. They may have been willing to pay him $5,000,000 if he wasn't terrorizing the community.

I didn't have all the information at first. Thank you for providing it. Sometimes it's not all stats, there's a human element to it. I hope you have a special day.

I hope I have a special day too! Maybe I will buy a lottery ticket....

Cheers, hope you have a great day too!

Also hope Mixon can get over the hammy injury and be 100% to start the season. His age is getting up there.

 

[J Giles Band]

As a Mixon owner in a keeper league since his rookie season... I've been a fan. Mostly because of volume and the offense in Cincinnati, but he is a talented RB as well. The Houston offense is similarly good, but a lateral move, imo. Though, given health, I do expect the volume to remain.

At ADP, I agree any regression is mostly baked in. But, make no mistake, Mixon has clearly been on the decline the last year or 2. Explosive plays, YPC, yards after contact, etc. His scoring has been driven more by volume than by explosiveness. The big plays have been non-existent.

So while I agree he is fine at the current ADP, I would also caution those who think he is in for another big season. He is firmly at the age RB's typically fall off a cliff... and while I'm not ready to go there, yet. The decline has already begun. Maybe partially obscured by the volume last season, but make no mistake, it is here. The Bengals knew this going into last season when they forced him to take a pay cut.

The question in my mind is do you cut bait a year early or a year late? In a re-draft this is mostly a moot point, I guess... but I did not bring him back in my keeper league as while I am not convinced this coming season is definitely going to be the drop off, I do think this season will be his last as an everydown NFL RB. So for me, I'm cutting ties a year early... time will tell if I am right, but I won't be late.

 

[Houston turmOiler]

FWIW Mixon was out there in the scrimmage against the Rams the other day. Caught a TD pass and caught another long gain on a wheel route. Hammy seems ok now. He could have a nice year receiving if defenses drop off to cover those receivers. Most people I know here are counting on Pierce less and less, as he's looked lousy this preseason and doesn't seem to fit the offense. Cam Akers has looked like a much better fit as the RB2 than Pierce, so we'll see what they decide to do.

 

[Big Nate]

As a Mixon owner in a keeper league since his rookie season... I've been a fan. Mostly because of volume and the offense in Cincinnati, but he is a talented RB as well. The Houston offense is similarly good, but a lateral move, imo. Though, given health, I do expect the volume to remain.

At ADP, I agree any regression is mostly baked in. But, make no mistake, Mixon has clearly been on the decline the last year or 2. Explosive plays, YPC, yards after contact, etc. His scoring has been driven more by volume than by explosiveness. The big plays have been non-existent.

So while I agree he is fine at the current ADP, I would also caution those who think he is in for another big season. He is firmly at the age RB's typically fall off a cliff... and while I'm not ready to go there, yet. The decline has already begun. Maybe partially obscured by the volume last season, but make no mistake, it is here. The Bengals knew this going into last season when they forced him to take a pay cut.

The question in my mind is do you cut bait a year early or a year late? In a re-draft this is mostly a moot point... but I did not bring him back in my keeper league as while I am not convinced this coming season is definitely going to be the drop off, I do think this season will be his last as an everydown NFL RB. So for me, I'm cutting ties a year early... time will tell if I am right, but I won't be late.

Fair comments. Redraft I'll take a swing if he is my RB2 or my RB1 if I go zero RB to start. I don't blame you for moving on in a keeper league. Like you said better to move on a year early than late. I did that with Henry and he came back for 3 more years.... oof. Now Mixon has been on a decline but I think he has one more year left.

In my dynasty league I'm running with him as my RB3/Flex and I'll gladly plug him in my flex with his guaranteed volume. I'll be Ok with eating it if he totally tanks this year. Also for those who aren't contending I'd be fine with moving on from him after the first few weeks if he is getting a ton of volume and looking good. Best time to get value for Mixon would be at teh start of the season. Look too move him when a team realizes they desperately need a 2nd RB.

 

[Big Nate]

FWIW Mixon was out there in the scrimmage against the Rams the other day. Caught a TD pass and caught another long gain on a wheel route. Hammy seems ok now. He could have a nice year receiving if defenses drop off to cover those receivers. Most people I know here are counting on Pierce less and less, as he's looked lousy this preseason and doesn't seem to fit the offense. Cam Akers has looked like a much better fit as the RB2 than Pierce, so we'll see what they decide to do.

What are your thoughts on Akers? Some saying he looks good again. Will he end up the RB2? Should I be trying to aquire him now to back up/cuff Mixon?

 

[Biabreakable]

FWIW Mixon was out there in the scrimmage against the Rams the other day. Caught a TD pass and caught another long gain on a wheel route. Hammy seems ok now. He could have a nice year receiving if defenses drop off to cover those receivers. Most people I know here are counting on Pierce less and less, as he's looked lousy this preseason and doesn't seem to fit the offense. Cam Akers has looked like a much better fit as the RB2 than Pierce, so we'll see what they decide to do.

What are your thoughts on Akers? Some saying he looks good again. Will he end up the RB2? Should I be trying to aquire him now to back up/cuff Mixon?

If I wanted to carry a RB who has been injured a lot and likely never gets much opportunity in part because of that I would prefer JK Dobbins who has actually shown good talent at the NFL level compared to Akers.

 

[Ray_T]

FWIW Mixon was out there in the scrimmage against the Rams the other day. Caught a TD pass and caught another long gain on a wheel route. Hammy seems ok now. He could have a nice year receiving if defenses drop off to cover those receivers. Most people I know here are counting on Pierce less and less, as he's looked lousy this preseason and doesn't seem to fit the offense. Cam Akers has looked like a much better fit as the RB2 than Pierce, so we'll see what they decide to do.

What are your thoughts on Akers? Some saying he looks good again. Will he end up the RB2? Should I be trying to aquire him now to back up/cuff Mixon?

If I wanted to carry a RB who has been injured a lot and likely never gets much opportunity in part because of that I would prefer JK Dobbins who has actually shown good talent at the NFL level compared to Akers.

coming off an Achilles i'd suggest any top 30 back is a better candidate than dobbins. no slight intended for Dobbins, but this injury is a RB killer. I'd take Mixon over him all day long.

 

[Big Nate]

FWIW Mixon was out there in the scrimmage against the Rams the other day. Caught a TD pass and caught another long gain on a wheel route. Hammy seems ok now. He could have a nice year receiving if defenses drop off to cover those receivers. Most people I know here are counting on Pierce less and less, as he's looked lousy this preseason and doesn't seem to fit the offense. Cam Akers has looked like a much better fit as the RB2 than Pierce, so we'll see what they decide to do.

What are your thoughts on Akers? Some saying he looks good again. Will he end up the RB2? Should I be trying to aquire him now to back up/cuff Mixon?

If I wanted to carry a RB who has been injured a lot and likely never gets much opportunity in part because of that I would prefer JK Dobbins who has actually shown good talent at the NFL level compared to Akers.

coming off an Achilles i'd suggest any top 30 back is a better candidate than dobbins. no slight intended for Dobbins, but this injury is a RB killer. I'd take Mixon over him all day long.

Just for clarity it wasn't a Mixon vs those guys. I just asked about Akers and if he is now the cuff to Mixon. He said he'd rather take a flier on Dobbins than Akers.

 

[Ray_T]

FWIW Mixon was out there in the scrimmage against the Rams the other day. Caught a TD pass and caught another long gain on a wheel route. Hammy seems ok now. He could have a nice year receiving if defenses drop off to cover those receivers. Most people I know here are counting on Pierce less and less, as he's looked lousy this preseason and doesn't seem to fit the offense. Cam Akers has looked like a much better fit as the RB2 than Pierce, so we'll see what they decide to do.

What are your thoughts on Akers? Some saying he looks good again. Will he end up the RB2? Should I be trying to aquire him now to back up/cuff Mixon?

If I wanted to carry a RB who has been injured a lot and likely never gets much opportunity in part because of that I would prefer JK Dobbins who has actually shown good talent at the NFL level compared to Akers.

coming off an Achilles i'd suggest any top 30 back is a better candidate than dobbins. no slight intended for Dobbins, but this injury is a RB killer. I'd take Mixon over him all day long.

Just for clarity it wasn't a Mixon vs those guys. I just asked about Akers and if he is now the cuff to Mixon. He said he'd rather take a flier on Dobbins than Akers.

ok I misuderstood. at this point Dobbins was likely the better talent to begin with. but Akers is further into his recovery and honestly it doesnt look like his career is going anywhere. hes jumped teams the last couple years since the injury. so in that case I would agree. Dobbins is likely the guy I'd take if faced with those two as my only choices

 

[Chaka]

You're free to believe that if you want, but I don't. In reverse order, his YPC for his career has been:

4.0, 3.9, 4.1, 3.6, 4.1, 4.9, 3.5

Ball security, pass protection, being where you're supposed to be when you're supposed to be there, hitting the play as called etc.

All these things factor in, at least as much as the YPC metric. Mixon brings all of that in spades and, again it won't take much to outproduce what we have seen in Pierce.

 

[Tau837]

I think he's going to have a lousy year. Not everyone is going to meet or exceed projections. I think he's in for a bad time. From what I recall, that o-line didn't block that well last year. Damien Pierce averaged 2.9 YPC after averaging 4.3 YPC the year before. You could probably average 2.9 YPC if you tried your hardest, lol.

That to me is reason to be concerned that a guy who was traded for a 7th rounder is going to come in and change life in Houston. Damien Pierce didn't just somehow get worse. Devin Singletary had the worst YPC in his career behind that o-line last year. I don't know if they did anything to improve their o-line, but both Houston RB had the lowest YPC of their careers last year behind that line and Joe Mixon averaged a ho, hum 4.0 YPC in Cincinatti. If I am wrong, please correct me, but it would seem to me that Joe Mixon is going to be dragged into some kind of YPC blackhole in Houston.


The passing game should be good and there may be ample redzone opportunities which I would expect Mixon to be the guy. If he score 8 - 10 touchdowns, then it won't matter if he only averages 3.6 YPC, right? I just don't think the 7th Round Pick he was traded for is going to show up and change life. I would pencil him into do exactly what Singletary did last year, with potentially more touches. Where that puts him relative to his ADP, I don't know because he is firmly on my DND list.

What does a 7th round pick matter with production on the field?

Generally speaking, there is a correlation between talent and draft pick compensation.

A 7th round pick is about as low as it gets without cutting a player outright. When the league says they'd rather cut a guy or have a useless 7th rounder for him, it usually means that the road is coming to an end for that player. Texans are only paying $5,000,000 for this guy this year and Bengals didn't even want to pay that. The guy they took in the 2nd Round they decided they would rather ship away for a 7th Rounder than pay $5,000,000.


Dalvin Cook in New York is a good parallel. Everyone was telling me until they were blue in the face that Cook only got cut due to not wanting to take a pay cut and that he was "still a good RB". Then he hits the field and it's revealed that the old RB had lost a step and was totally cashed.

Surely you understand cap considerations.

Surely you understand that a team that has an up and coming, relatively cheap player like Chase Brown might cut a better but much more cap expensive veteran player in his twilight years for nothing... in which case a 7th round pick is better.

Surely you understand that situation -- cutting/trading such a veteran player -- does not necessarily reflect on his ability to be productive for another team.

Right?

 

[BIRDGANG52]

I think he's going to have a lousy year. Not everyone is going to meet or exceed projections. I think he's in for a bad time. From what I recall, that o-line didn't block that well last year. Damien Pierce averaged 2.9 YPC after averaging 4.3 YPC the year before. You could probably average 2.9 YPC if you tried your hardest, lol.

That to me is reason to be concerned that a guy who was traded for a 7th rounder is going to come in and change life in Houston. Damien Pierce didn't just somehow get worse. Devin Singletary had the worst YPC in his career behind that o-line last year. I don't know if they did anything to improve their o-line, but both Houston RB had the lowest YPC of their careers last year behind that line and Joe Mixon averaged a ho, hum 4.0 YPC in Cincinatti. If I am wrong, please correct me, but it would seem to me that Joe Mixon is going to be dragged into some kind of YPC blackhole in Houston.


The passing game should be good and there may be ample redzone opportunities which I would expect Mixon to be the guy. If he score 8 - 10 touchdowns, then it won't matter if he only averages 3.6 YPC, right? I just don't think the 7th Round Pick he was traded for is going to show up and change life. I would pencil him into do exactly what Singletary did last year, with potentially more touches. Where that puts him relative to his ADP, I don't know because he is firmly on my DND list.

What does a 7th round pick matter with production on the field?

Generally speaking, there is a correlation between talent and draft pick compensation.

A 7th round pick is about as low as it gets without cutting a player outright. When the league says they'd rather cut a guy or have a useless 7th rounder for him, it usually means that the road is coming to an end for that player. Texans are only paying $5,000,000 for this guy this year and Bengals didn't even want to pay that. The guy they took in the 2nd Round they decided they would rather ship away for a 7th Rounder than pay $5,000,000.


Dalvin Cook in New York is a good parallel. Everyone was telling me until they were blue in the face that Cook only got cut due to not wanting to take a pay cut and that he was "still a good RB". Then he hits the field and it's revealed that the old RB had lost a step and was totally cashed.

Surely you understand cap considerations.

Surely you understand that a team that has an up and coming, relatively cheap player like Chase Brown might cut a better but much more cap expensive veteran player in his twilight years for nothing... in which case a 7th round pick is better.

Surely you understand that situation -- cutting/trading such a veteran player -- does not necessarily reflect on his ability to be productive for another team.

Right?

What would make you think I don't understand that? And don't call me Shirley.

 

[Tau837]

I think he's going to have a lousy year. Not everyone is going to meet or exceed projections. I think he's in for a bad time. From what I recall, that o-line didn't block that well last year. Damien Pierce averaged 2.9 YPC after averaging 4.3 YPC the year before. You could probably average 2.9 YPC if you tried your hardest, lol.

That to me is reason to be concerned that a guy who was traded for a 7th rounder is going to come in and change life in Houston. Damien Pierce didn't just somehow get worse. Devin Singletary had the worst YPC in his career behind that o-line last year. I don't know if they did anything to improve their o-line, but both Houston RB had the lowest YPC of their careers last year behind that line and Joe Mixon averaged a ho, hum 4.0 YPC in Cincinatti. If I am wrong, please correct me, but it would seem to me that Joe Mixon is going to be dragged into some kind of YPC blackhole in Houston.


The passing game should be good and there may be ample redzone opportunities which I would expect Mixon to be the guy. If he score 8 - 10 touchdowns, then it won't matter if he only averages 3.6 YPC, right? I just don't think the 7th Round Pick he was traded for is going to show up and change life. I would pencil him into do exactly what Singletary did last year, with potentially more touches. Where that puts him relative to his ADP, I don't know because he is firmly on my DND list.

What does a 7th round pick matter with production on the field?

Generally speaking, there is a correlation between talent and draft pick compensation.

A 7th round pick is about as low as it gets without cutting a player outright. When the league says they'd rather cut a guy or have a useless 7th rounder for him, it usually means that the road is coming to an end for that player. Texans are only paying $5,000,000 for this guy this year and Bengals didn't even want to pay that. The guy they took in the 2nd Round they decided they would rather ship away for a 7th Rounder than pay $5,000,000.


Dalvin Cook in New York is a good parallel. Everyone was telling me until they were blue in the face that Cook only got cut due to not wanting to take a pay cut and that he was "still a good RB". Then he hits the field and it's revealed that the old RB had lost a step and was totally cashed.

Surely you understand cap considerations.

Surely you understand that a team that has an up and coming, relatively cheap player like Chase Brown might cut a better but much more cap expensive veteran player in his twilight years for nothing... in which case a 7th round pick is better.

Surely you understand that situation -- cutting/trading such a veteran player -- does not necessarily reflect on his ability to be productive for another team.

Right?

What would make you think I don't understand that? And don't call me Shirley.

Well, great. Then you understand that "there is correlation between talent and draft pick compensation" isn't fully representing the situation. Which implies you shouldn't have suggested it does.

 

[Biabreakable]

FWIW Mixon was out there in the scrimmage against the Rams the other day. Caught a TD pass and caught another long gain on a wheel route. Hammy seems ok now. He could have a nice year receiving if defenses drop off to cover those receivers. Most people I know here are counting on Pierce less and less, as he's looked lousy this preseason and doesn't seem to fit the offense. Cam Akers has looked like a much better fit as the RB2 than Pierce, so we'll see what they decide to do.

What are your thoughts on Akers? Some saying he looks good again. Will he end up the RB2? Should I be trying to aquire him now to back up/cuff Mixon?

If I wanted to carry a RB who has been injured a lot and likely never gets much opportunity in part because of that I would prefer JK Dobbins who has actually shown good talent at the NFL level compared to Akers.

coming off an Achilles i'd suggest any top 30 back is a better candidate than dobbins. no slight intended for Dobbins, but this injury is a RB killer. I'd take Mixon over him all day long.

Just for clarity it wasn't a Mixon vs those guys. I just asked about Akers and if he is now the cuff to Mixon. He said he'd rather take a flier on Dobbins than Akers.

ok I misuderstood. at this point Dobbins was likely the better talent to begin with. but Akers is further into his recovery and honestly it doesnt look like his career is going anywhere. hes jumped teams the last couple years since the injury. so in that case I would agree. Dobbins is likely the guy I'd take if faced with those two as my only choices

Yeah sorry if that wasn't clear.

I know Nate is asking Texan fans what they think of Akers as the handcuff here and if he has a chance to take the back up role from Pierce.

I doubt it. But I'm not tuned into the Texans enough to offer that kind of perspective.

I have never been a fan of Akers. People were making excuses for him as a college prospect, that his offensive line was bad. I didn't buy it then and I don't believe in him now.

I was just thinking outside the box and although Dobbins isn't in line to replace Mixon if he got injured I do think he would be a better player to have on the end of your bench than Akers.

I don't expect Dobbins to do much either, if ever.

 

[BIRDGANG52]

I think he's going to have a lousy year. Not everyone is going to meet or exceed projections. I think he's in for a bad time. From what I recall, that o-line didn't block that well last year. Damien Pierce averaged 2.9 YPC after averaging 4.3 YPC the year before. You could probably average 2.9 YPC if you tried your hardest, lol.

That to me is reason to be concerned that a guy who was traded for a 7th rounder is going to come in and change life in Houston. Damien Pierce didn't just somehow get worse. Devin Singletary had the worst YPC in his career behind that o-line last year. I don't know if they did anything to improve their o-line, but both Houston RB had the lowest YPC of their careers last year behind that line and Joe Mixon averaged a ho, hum 4.0 YPC in Cincinatti. If I am wrong, please correct me, but it would seem to me that Joe Mixon is going to be dragged into some kind of YPC blackhole in Houston.


The passing game should be good and there may be ample redzone opportunities which I would expect Mixon to be the guy. If he score 8 - 10 touchdowns, then it won't matter if he only averages 3.6 YPC, right? I just don't think the 7th Round Pick he was traded for is going to show up and change life. I would pencil him into do exactly what Singletary did last year, with potentially more touches. Where that puts him relative to his ADP, I don't know because he is firmly on my DND list.

What does a 7th round pick matter with production on the field?

Generally speaking, there is a correlation between talent and draft pick compensation.

A 7th round pick is about as low as it gets without cutting a player outright. When the league says they'd rather cut a guy or have a useless 7th rounder for him, it usually means that the road is coming to an end for that player. Texans are only paying $5,000,000 for this guy this year and Bengals didn't even want to pay that. The guy they took in the 2nd Round they decided they would rather ship away for a 7th Rounder than pay $5,000,000.


Dalvin Cook in New York is a good parallel. Everyone was telling me until they were blue in the face that Cook only got cut due to not wanting to take a pay cut and that he was "still a good RB". Then he hits the field and it's revealed that the old RB had lost a step and was totally cashed.

Surely you understand cap considerations.

Surely you understand that a team that has an up and coming, relatively cheap player like Chase Brown might cut a better but much more cap expensive veteran player in his twilight years for nothing... in which case a 7th round pick is better.

Surely you understand that situation -- cutting/trading such a veteran player -- does not necessarily reflect on his ability to be productive for another team.

Right?

What would make you think I don't understand that? And don't call me Shirley.

Well, great. Then you understand that "there is correlation between talent and draft pick compensation" isn't fully representing the situation. Which implies you shouldn't have suggested it does.

I'm confused. Don't more talented players get traded for higher draft pick compensation? Isn't that the definition of correlation?

The most talent players get traded for first round picks if not multiple first rounders. The least talented players go for 7th round picks or get cut outright. This is called correlation. The more talented a player is, the more a team will be willing to give up to acquire him.

 

[Big Nate]

I think he's going to have a lousy year. Not everyone is going to meet or exceed projections. I think he's in for a bad time. From what I recall, that o-line didn't block that well last year. Damien Pierce averaged 2.9 YPC after averaging 4.3 YPC the year before. You could probably average 2.9 YPC if you tried your hardest, lol.

That to me is reason to be concerned that a guy who was traded for a 7th rounder is going to come in and change life in Houston. Damien Pierce didn't just somehow get worse. Devin Singletary had the worst YPC in his career behind that o-line last year. I don't know if they did anything to improve their o-line, but both Houston RB had the lowest YPC of their careers last year behind that line and Joe Mixon averaged a ho, hum 4.0 YPC in Cincinatti. If I am wrong, please correct me, but it would seem to me that Joe Mixon is going to be dragged into some kind of YPC blackhole in Houston.


The passing game should be good and there may be ample redzone opportunities which I would expect Mixon to be the guy. If he score 8 - 10 touchdowns, then it won't matter if he only averages 3.6 YPC, right? I just don't think the 7th Round Pick he was traded for is going to show up and change life. I would pencil him into do exactly what Singletary did last year, with potentially more touches. Where that puts him relative to his ADP, I don't know because he is firmly on my DND list.

What does a 7th round pick matter with production on the field?

Generally speaking, there is a correlation between talent and draft pick compensation.

A 7th round pick is about as low as it gets without cutting a player outright. When the league says they'd rather cut a guy or have a useless 7th rounder for him, it usually means that the road is coming to an end for that player. Texans are only paying $5,000,000 for this guy this year and Bengals didn't even want to pay that. The guy they took in the 2nd Round they decided they would rather ship away for a 7th Rounder than pay $5,000,000.


Dalvin Cook in New York is a good parallel. Everyone was telling me until they were blue in the face that Cook only got cut due to not wanting to take a pay cut and that he was "still a good RB". Then he hits the field and it's revealed that the old RB had lost a step and was totally cashed.

Surely you understand cap considerations.

Surely you understand that a team that has an up and coming, relatively cheap player like Chase Brown might cut a better but much more cap expensive veteran player in his twilight years for nothing... in which case a 7th round pick is better.

Surely you understand that situation -- cutting/trading such a veteran player -- does not necessarily reflect on his ability to be productive for another team.

Right?

What would make you think I don't understand that? And don't call me Shirley.

Well, great. Then you understand that "there is correlation between talent and draft pick compensation" isn't fully representing the situation. Which implies you shouldn't have suggested it does.

I'm confused. Don't more talented players get traded for higher draft pick compensation? Isn't that the definition of correlation?

The most talent players get traded for first round picks if not multiple first rounders. The least talented players go for 7th round picks or get cut outright. This is called correlation. The more talented a player is, the more a team will be willing to give up to acquire him.

It is nuanced. Every situation is difference. Cap space, need for player, sick of their crap, player is nuts etc.
It isn't standard. I know what you are getting at and generally if someone pays a high price for something they will "use it". But just because someone gets something for cheaper doesn't mean that asset isn't good.
I lean on the fact that HOU wants to compete and wanted a good Vet RB to help Stroud and CIN couldn't wait to get out on Mixon. They would likely let him go to FA but wanted to get at least something. HOU probably got a steal of a deal here as long as Mixon keeps his nose clean.

 

[kyoun1e]

Mixon ranked 24 overall in my ESPN league. On the 2/3 turn I just can't do it.

Cinci didn't have any interest.

At the 2/3 turn I'd rather take my chances on Cook or Achane. Just think Mixon's ceiling has collapsed.

If he was around in the 4th round? Maybe.

And also, whenever Mixon gets dinged you have to deal with the non updates from Ben Baby. More aggravation than upside.

 

[Ray_T]

Mixon ranked 24 overall in my ESPN league. On the 2/3 turn I just can't do it.

Cinci didn't have any interest.

At the 2/3 turn I'd rather take my chances on Cook or Achane. Just think Mixon's ceiling has collapsed.

If he was around in the 4th round? Maybe.

And also, whenever Mixon gets dinged you have to deal with the non updates from Ben Baby. More aggravation than upside.

I can guarantee if mixon stays healthy he outperforms what he did in Cincy. the line in Cincy was pretty terrible and he put up passable numbers anyway. now hes running behind a decent line. should be a lot better