Tau837
Footballguy
I'm confused. Don't more talented players get traded for higher draft pick compensation? Isn't that the definition of correlation?I think he's going to have a lousy year. Not everyone is going to meet or exceed projections. I think he's in for a bad time. From what I recall, that o-line didn't block that well last year. Damien Pierce averaged 2.9 YPC after averaging 4.3 YPC the year before. You could probably average 2.9 YPC if you tried your hardest, lol.
That to me is reason to be concerned that a guy who was traded for a 7th rounder is going to come in and change life in Houston. Damien Pierce didn't just somehow get worse. Devin Singletary had the worst YPC in his career behind that o-line last year. I don't know if they did anything to improve their o-line, but both Houston RB had the lowest YPC of their careers last year behind that line and Joe Mixon averaged a ho, hum 4.0 YPC in Cincinatti. If I am wrong, please correct me, but it would seem to me that Joe Mixon is going to be dragged into some kind of YPC blackhole in Houston.
The passing game should be good and there may be ample redzone opportunities which I would expect Mixon to be the guy. If he score 8 - 10 touchdowns, then it won't matter if he only averages 3.6 YPC, right? I just don't think the 7th Round Pick he was traded for is going to show up and change life. I would pencil him into do exactly what Singletary did last year, with potentially more touches. Where that puts him relative to his ADP, I don't know because he is firmly on my DND list.
What does a 7th round pick matter with production on the field?
Generally speaking, there is a correlation between talent and draft pick compensation.
A 7th round pick is about as low as it gets without cutting a player outright. When the league says they'd rather cut a guy or have a useless 7th rounder for him, it usually means that the road is coming to an end for that player. Texans are only paying $5,000,000 for this guy this year and Bengals didn't even want to pay that. The guy they took in the 2nd Round they decided they would rather ship away for a 7th Rounder than pay $5,000,000.
Dalvin Cook in New York is a good parallel. Everyone was telling me until they were blue in the face that Cook only got cut due to not wanting to take a pay cut and that he was "still a good RB". Then he hits the field and it's revealed that the old RB had lost a step and was totally cashed.
Surely you understand cap considerations.
Surely you understand that a team that has an up and coming, relatively cheap player like Chase Brown might cut a better but much more cap expensive veteran player in his twilight years for nothing... in which case a 7th round pick is better.
Surely you understand that situation -- cutting/trading such a veteran player -- does not necessarily reflect on his ability to be productive for another team.
Right?
What would make you think I don't understand that? And don't call me Shirley.
Well, great. Then you understand that "there is correlation between talent and draft pick compensation" isn't fully representing the situation. Which implies you shouldn't have suggested it does.
The most talent players get traded for first round picks if not multiple first rounders. The least talented players go for 7th round picks or get cut outright. This is called correlation. The more talented a player is, the more a team will be willing to give up to acquire him.
What does "isn't fully representing the situation" mean to you? Given everything I already wrote, it is obvious that age, cap hit, and ready replacements were a factor in addition to performance. I realize that doesn't fit your oversimplified narrative (only 7th round pick compensation = he's done).
Are you trying to have a good faith conversation here?