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RB Joe Mixon, HOU (20 Viewers)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Ha not even close to Soulfly blinders on GB.
This article is sort of milktoast anyways. Exerpt
Challenging him to become a complete back means he isn't there yet. The coach is trying to get him there.
A 60/40 split isn't resounding either. It makes sense though as Marvin Lewis has been splitting playing time between two RB for quite awhile now. Basically since Gruden left in 2014.
Ted Stickles
Footballguy
With Mixon's current ADP around 14/15/16 ranked RB, I think he offers tremendous value where he is being picked. I think as the regular season nears, his ADP will rise to RB10/11/12.
I can't help but think with the 20lb weight loss and his rookie year under the belt, that Mixon will join the elite RB ranks this season.
I'd rather have Mixon than either Dalvin, Fournette, Howard, Devonta, McCoy, McCaffery, Henry.
I can't help but think with the 20lb weight loss and his rookie year under the belt, that Mixon will join the elite RB ranks this season.
I'd rather have Mixon than either Dalvin, Fournette, Howard, Devonta, McCoy, McCaffery, Henry.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Dropping some weight usually ends up being a good thing for RBs. However Mixon was already in the top 1% for athleticism, so not sure there is much room to improve there. His problem is in his head (vision, finding the hole, instincts at the LoS) so that's where I would be more interested in seeing improvement.
Milkman
Footballguy
Give me Fournette over Mixon but he's headed for top 10 dynasty asset if he performs like i think he will this year.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Agreed.
In the linked article he makes a comment about trying to get lower and play with better pad level than he did last year as well: Or maybe the comment is just related to his weight, that he was trying to play at a lower weight last year, I am not sure.
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Dropping weight is a positive in this case as it shows at least some effort/commitment for improvement IMO. If he shows the same effort and commitment to the playbook and technique we could see a pretty big jump in production.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I see it as a positive as well, similar to LeVeon Bell. I just don't think Mixon's weight was the area that needed improvement. His vision and pad level do.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I was ready to overreact to that TD catch and run but then Gio came in and played well enough to be a buzz kill. I really wish Gio wasn't the #2, he's just a tad too talented.
dipandglide
Footballguy
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
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dipandglide
Footballguy
All I’m saying is they can both be productive.
The only thing Mixon needs to do is stay healthy and see some 3rd down work. If Gio hogs all the 3rd down work Mixon will have a nasty floor in ppr
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I fully expect both to be productive—but Gio has seen fewer and fewer touches per game pretty much since his rookie year. Cinci’s coach has already stated that he sees Mixon as being the bell cow guy. Bernard will be a decent flex play in PPR leagues—but his presence doesn’t effect my view of mixon. If anything—his presence might keep mixon fresher throughout the course of the season. I’d be thrilled if I can get mixon at the end of the second or the beginning of the third in re-draft.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
NO is an annual goldmine for RBs and even more so now thanks to their OL and defense. Mixon and Gio can't eat like Ingram and Kamara of last year, very few tandems will ever find themselves in as good of a situation. I still think Mixon can do well but his floor/ceiling has to be capped by Gio's presence. I'm not saying I wouldn't draft him, I just wish Gio wasn't there. It's sort of like how a Freeman owners wish Coleman wasn't there because he disallows top 3 upside.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Nobody is saying mixon is going to be top 3–or have top 3 upside. Top 3 upside will be gurley, zeke, david Johnson, Leveon bell, Saquon Barkley. I think that people that are big on mixon (like myself) think that he could be a top 5-10ppr rb—I think he could be in the 6-7 range. Bernard does nothing to change that. In current PPR drafts—he’s the 15th rb coming off the board. I think the upside reward is worth the downside risk where he’s being taken even if you think his cap is a top 7-10 rb.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Gio is a huge negative. One of Mixon’s biggest strengths is that he’s a great receiver and Gio really limits his upside. Could be more of a true timeshare most believe right now.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Nice TD, but looked like some bad preseason tackling that allowed him to score.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I usually go by MFL's ADP which has him going off the board as RB12 on average. I recognize his risk/reward profile. I've always been enamored by his physical traits and skill set and like I said I'm not completely averse to taking him. I think it's likely highly dependent on draft position, I kind of wish I could get him early 3rd instead. As it stands I might be more interested with going with someone like Allen or Green in the 2nd over Mixon and taking Howard in the 3rd instead. But drafts are rarely predictable or go as planned.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Agreed. I just wouldn't put a lot of stock in the result of the play. That is all I am saying.
Elevencents
Footballguy
I’m def in the minority, at least on FBG, that I see Mixon finishing right around where he is projected if not a bit lower. RB 15-18 or so. Not a fan of anyone from a FF perspective on the bengals :(
electric Ape
Footballguy
It's dangerous to read too much into preseason results and especially small sample size preseason results but did anyone notice that Mixon stayed on the field for the entire Bengals first drive including 3rd downs? Then Gio played (and played well) the next two drives.
This is something to monitor because Gio got the lionshare of 3rd down work last season. If Mixon continues to stay on the field on 3rd downs and continues to get the bellcow preseason treatment of playing a ceremonial drive or two then getting extra rest I think that bodes very well for Mixon. Many are downgrading JM due to the threat of Gio absorbing 35 or 40% of the RB snaps but this very early peek at the Cincy offense makes me wonder if the Bengals aren't planning to give Mixon even more work year 2, not less...
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
He’s finishing top 7-10 in PPR this year.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
TZMarkie
Footballguy
Mixon is one of my "must haves" this year, and I think pointed it out in the appropriate thread. I am hoping to get him literally everywhere.
Here is the thread - https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/768303-your-5-must-haves-in-redraft-for-2018/
Dude needs to quiet down this preseason. No more sneaky, elusive runs for a TD, that will kill his ADP.
Hot Sauce Guy - Tried sending you a message about placing an order.....says you "can't receive messages".
Shoot me a message bro.
TZM
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Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He’s going just before or just after the 2-3 turn in PPR CBS mock drafts, but ADP is 22-26-ish
Keith1
Footballguy
Him and Jordan Howard seem to be fairly close together in rankings, ADP, etc... Eyeing one (or both ???) at the 24/25 turn, but wondering who the Shark Pool prefers. They seem similar in the sense that they both have another RB on their team eating into their catches and potential 3rd down work.
electric Ape
Footballguy
Left practice early yesterday but he's back on the field practicing today. Whatever his injury was, it appears to be minor
EBF
Footballguy
The difference to me is that Mixon has all the tools to be an elite three down back if given the opportunity, whereas Howard by nature seems like more of a two down guy. I think that gives Mixon a higher ceiling.
I'll probably end up taking Mixon in my redraft. I know there are risks, but I think he has the ceiling to become a top 5 FF RB, and that level of upside is hard to find. There are some other interesting candidates in his ADP range who also have a chance to be good. I think Drake can be a dynamic weapon when healthy. Penny, R Freeman, and D Henry all have wide open starting opportunities, but none of those three are as talented as Mixon IMO.
It didn't work out last year, but at RB2 prices I'm probably going back to the well again and hoping that he takes the leap in year two.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
I think Mixon has some ways to go before we throw in the word "elite" into the equation, but clearly has skill -- just needs consistent execution.EBF said:
He's trending up in preseason which bodes well, so agree that extends his ceiling higher, but I don't think -- given what we've seen CIN do with present roster/gameplanning or their overall approach since 2012 (the days when BGE was the last true bellcow) of having backs split work with the secondary back getting roughly half the carries the primary back has.
It's interesting to see Gio's carries drop in 2015 from ~150-170 to ~100 with Mixon coming in, but it doesn't seem clear to me that Mixon is a lock to eat that much further into those carries and be a true 3-down back given Gio's solid performance as a the passing down/COP back. I also don't think that Mixon's showing so far in preseason is so head-and-shoulders better than he was last year -- I can see him getting more reps if he continues and more passing looks, but not to the point that makes him bellcow for both running and passing downs.
Willing to be proven wrong -- but my take is Mixon gets his due bump in my rankings given what he's showing, but I need to see that trajectory continue for more than just the first preseason game because for now, not clear to me that Gio's going anywhere.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Gio’s presence, and the fact that we don’t know what to expect from the revamped OL are both concerning to me.
i think the talent is there for a breakout season, but I’m also inclined to go WR/WR at the 2/3 turn since ill go RB with my 1 pick.
So I’ll probably not land Mixon unless there’s no WR I want there.
His floor isnt too bad & his ceiling is high. The final result may be somewhere in the middle.
Bill
Footballguy
Looks like I won't have Mixon on any of my teams this year because I would not take him in the first 4 rounds. He really didn't show much last year, Bernard looked better and so far this year he hasn't done anything preseason except for that trick WR pass play which they should have saved for the regular season. Teams will be looking for him to go out wide now.
Actually if he didn't wear the number on his jersey he looks like a JAG.
Actually if he didn't wear the number on his jersey he looks like a JAG.
Ted Stickles
Footballguy
Bernard looks much, much better than Mixon.
And this is coming from a Mixon truther/owner, wanting to believe and go all-in on him in every league this year.
:X
And this is coming from a Mixon truther/owner, wanting to believe and go all-in on him in every league this year.
:X
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
?
Neither has any room to run today. Where is the “much, much better” take coming from?
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
Gio’s one nice run came in the 2nd quarter when the O-line pushed Buffalo’s D-line back almost 3 yards.
Mixon wasn’t afforded that luxury on any of his carries.
The issue with Mixon this season will be his horrendous O-line, not Gio Bernard. Gio is great at his role, but physically has no chance of becoming a workhorse back over the course of a season. The hope here is that the O-line, Dalton/Ross/AJ/Eifert can get the pass game going and loosen things up for Mix and Gio.
Mixon wasn’t afforded that luxury on any of his carries.
The issue with Mixon this season will be his horrendous O-line, not Gio Bernard. Gio is great at his role, but physically has no chance of becoming a workhorse back over the course of a season. The hope here is that the O-line, Dalton/Ross/AJ/Eifert can get the pass game going and loosen things up for Mix and Gio.
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EBF
Footballguy
Has kind of a Marshawn on the Bills feel to it, except Marshawn didn't have to worry about splitting carries. Good player. Bad situation.
Might require some patience. Might not. I like him as a RB2 in redraft. There's upside there, yet he won't kill you if he has a slow season.
I'm a believer in the dynasty talent though, and I'll go down with the ship unless he starts actually looking bad.
I don't see the JAG-iness people talk about. I've seen so many RBs over the years that it's hard to impress me.
The lateral agility that Mixon has at 220+ pounds is something that you just don't see in every back, or even in every draft class.
Even though the numbers weren't there last year, I think the talent really jumps out at you:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQJAmGrI7bo&t=2s
Might require some patience. Might not. I like him as a RB2 in redraft. There's upside there, yet he won't kill you if he has a slow season.
I'm a believer in the dynasty talent though, and I'll go down with the ship unless he starts actually looking bad.
I don't see the JAG-iness people talk about. I've seen so many RBs over the years that it's hard to impress me.
The lateral agility that Mixon has at 220+ pounds is something that you just don't see in every back, or even in every draft class.
Even though the numbers weren't there last year, I think the talent really jumps out at you:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQJAmGrI7bo&t=2s
Truebluey
Footballguy
Finally did my big draft tonight and I got him at 4.10 in a 12- team PPR. Was really surprised as not ONCE in a mock did he fall to me.
I guess it must be the lack of buzz in the preseason.
I actually thought deeply about whether to take him there, but since he's my RB3 I figured why not?
So he's fallen a lot since the off season hype train.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He’s looked pretty mediocre in the preseason.
I am a believer in Mixon, but he hasn’t looked that good early on, partly due to the Bengals OL.
Dalton playing well bodes well for Mixon though. I wonder how much Bernard will cap his upside though.
