FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
And the same arguments about Trent Richardson after he averaged 3.6ypc as a rookie, so it works both ways.
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RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
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The Kerminator
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
To me, you hold a player who's value has dropped for some reason. This hasn't happened for Taylor. At least according to keeptradecut who has him as a 1st round start up pick. That's some pretty high value for a rookie who has yet to light up the field. If you can get a young, known good player of such caliber for this guy, what is the reason for holding instead of cashing in?
On the other hand, he's not ranked so highly everywhere. Fantasypros has him at 40. I can see holding at that price.
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Grain of salt and all but after week 4 they've dropped all the way down to 28th in run blocking.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Without a large workload, how is Taylor a RB1? We have to hope he breaks a long run and scores one TD on minimal touches. That isn’t going to work out well many weeks but you have to roll the dice if you own him. Most of us don’t have better options or are waiting to see if someone such as Gibson continues to get receptions so Taylor can go to the bench.
-jb-
Footballguy
I agree. The counterpoint to this is that he still got 17 carries. However, he’s still inexplicably uninvolved in the passing game and the highly touted line isn’t mauling anyone. If those two things are addressed, he’ll absolutely be a 1. But that’s a big if.
Yep. I'd add that he needs to be used more early in the game to these two "big if's". Last week 7 of his 17 carries came in the 4th qtr. while they were milking a big lead, he netted 4 yards on his last 5 carries.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I listened to the OC interview. Most of that is pretty light just joking about Phillip Rivers trash talking.
He says they are focused on self scouting their own tendencies and that he and Reich make it a point of emphasis to be unpredictable and to break their play calling tendencies.
From what I saw of the most recent game they alternated series between the 3 RB.
He says they want to do what their players do well when they are on the field. That makes a ton of sense but it is in conflict with their desire to do the unpredictable as well.
The 3rd thing he emphasized was keeping the RB fresh so they can finish the games strong.
He says that he thinks Taylor could be a 20 + touch guy if they need him to but they are purposefully trying to not have him do that.
There are things I do not like about this. Alternating series between the RB if they stick to doing it is predictable. Also the things the RB are good at when they are in are pretty easy for defenders to identify when they are not complete RB like Taylor. So they can call plays on defense to help take away the things those niche RB do best. Sure you can do the opposite of that to catch the defense off guard, but I think the advantage of that often get cancelled out by asking the RB to do things they are not good at.
I think self scouting is important and in the process of that they should be trying to get rid of the plays and plays with players that do not work. If they do that it would mean less Wilkins and more Taylor.
He says they are focused on self scouting their own tendencies and that he and Reich make it a point of emphasis to be unpredictable and to break their play calling tendencies.
From what I saw of the most recent game they alternated series between the 3 RB.
He says they want to do what their players do well when they are on the field. That makes a ton of sense but it is in conflict with their desire to do the unpredictable as well.
The 3rd thing he emphasized was keeping the RB fresh so they can finish the games strong.
He says that he thinks Taylor could be a 20 + touch guy if they need him to but they are purposefully trying to not have him do that.
There are things I do not like about this. Alternating series between the RB if they stick to doing it is predictable. Also the things the RB are good at when they are in are pretty easy for defenders to identify when they are not complete RB like Taylor. So they can call plays on defense to help take away the things those niche RB do best. Sure you can do the opposite of that to catch the defense off guard, but I think the advantage of that often get cancelled out by asking the RB to do things they are not good at.
I think self scouting is important and in the process of that they should be trying to get rid of the plays and plays with players that do not work. If they do that it would mean less Wilkins and more Taylor.
whole-show
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Me either.
Creme rise to the top but its going to take some tougher games perhaps for them to change their tune.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
The Colts are stating that Taylor isn’t going to get a big workload in order to keep him fresh and because the other two backs are talented. Owning a RB that is currently part of a three headed committee is not favorable.
Pipes
Footballguy
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
He doesn't jump out at you
-jb-
Footballguy
You’re right. I should provide more context. Here are the lead RB ypc for those who have gone against Chicago:
Adrian Peterson 6.6
Saquon Barkley 7.0
Todd Gurley 5.7
Jonathan Taylor 4.0
Ronald Jones 6.2
One of these things is not like the others. Why?
Unfortunately the Minnesota game has been an outlier, for the other 3 games he's on pace for ~250 touches.
His O-line hasn't been good at run blocking, but it's mostly about situation/usage IMO. As I've pointed out, 7 of his 17 carries against them came in the 4th quarter while up big, and he netted only 4 yards on his final 5 carries (ypc was 5.3 prior to those).
Did you mean that he didn't get meaningful snaps in 3 of the 4 games so far? He's only broken 50% once.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
I can’t believe I’m considering putting Gibson in his place but this thread is leading me that way. I thought Taylor was going to be a lucky hit for me just a couple of weeks ago.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah that is what he is saying.
I don't agree with the Wilkins being talented part of that. I mean of course he would run circles around me all day long, but in a relative sense compared to Taylor.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Synthesizer
Footballguy
"Lead RB" is misleading. This is a good example of cherry-picking to make an argument. Detroit RBs averaged 4.8 YPC when you add in Swift and K.Johnson. New York RBs averaged 3.4 YPC because Saquon only had 4 carries in that game.
-jb-
Footballguy
I wouldn’t say irrelevant. I would say interesting. I would say telling in another two weeks if we continue to see Taylor put up 80 yards and no catches.
You can’t sell high if you wait until they’re low.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
You know that one run can really skew those numbers right?
Maybe Taylor is a good buy based on people's skepticism in this thread.
-jb-
Footballguy
What one run? To reiterate, I have Taylor and am still starting him, but I truly believe people are assigning far too much redraft value to his draft capital and last years Colts rushing grade. Regarding buy low, what do you think you would give up to get him?
skillz
Footballguy
Didn't Reich use a variety of RBs when he was in Philly instead of a single workhorse? I suspect that since it worked for him in Philly he intends to take the same approach in Indy with Taylor and the other backs. Not good for us Taylor owners. I can afford to hold since he is not an every week starter on my roster but no one expected this usage when Mack went down. Maybe he separates himself but he certainly isn't the set it and forget it starter most of were expecting.
-jb-
Footballguy
And Colts averaged 3.0. I selected lead backs because someone would inevitably say that I included the crappy Colts backs.
"Lead RB" is misleading. This is a good example of cherry-picking to make an argument. Detroit RBs averaged 4.8 YPC when you add in Swift and K.Johnson. New York RBs averaged 3.4 YPC because Saquon only had 4 carries in that game.
-jb-
Footballguy
Yes, he did. Absolutely adds into my (current) assessment. I would love to be proven wrong...just too many signs pointing to him being overvalued here.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well yeah one 20 yard run can make ypc look awesome in such a sample.
I am not sure what I would give up for Taylor in a redraft. Ideally selling some one like Mike Davis (who has been great) and something else for him is what I would look to do.
I sold Taylor for Adam Thielen in redraft. Sitting at 1-3 with a massive need at Wr and set for the short term at the Rb. PPR.
It's 4 games, and one is pretty clearly not like the others. Definitely a small sample size but it's 1/4 of the season.
One game Mack started before getting hurt. Mack isn’t around anymore. One he barely played the 4th because it was the Jets and they smashed with 2 defensive tds. Is that happening every week? I’m not even saying definitively that he’s more than 14-16 touch guy the rest of the way. Just saying, declaring an outlier in a sample like this is silly. You could just as easily declare the Jets or Jags games as outliers as you can the Vikings game.
-jb-
Footballguy
DocHolliday
Footballguy
I’m holding him. It’s just a matter of if he is a RB2, flex, or bench depending on who the Colts are facing and who else you have on your roster. Another good game by Gibson and Taylor moves down a spot for me.
-jb-
Footballguy
Agree here, but will also say that he still has the chance to be RB1 with the assumption that his line improves and he becomes active in the passing game again. I’m starting him AND Gibson this week.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I might not give up Thielen for him in redraft so I think you did good there. He is WR 8 right now and I am pretty sure he is going to finish in the top 12.
-jb-
Footballguy
Great question, and I’ll do my best not to answer it. First, I’m not “down” on him so much as I’m not as high on him as others. It’s not so much about stats, rather than context. That said, I would be more encouraged by the following:
Less of the time share we have seen outside of one game (has seen roughly half the carries)
Better offensive line play (currently last in the NFL in ypc)
Higher ypc from him specifically
More involvement in the passing game
At least one more “wow” play
All this said, please don’t equate it to me saying he’s a bust, bench fodder, or the like. He’s absolutely a starter on the team where I have him, but I (currently) believe that the RB1 moniker was thrown on him far too quickly. Would love it if he brings me back to this thread in the next two weeks saying how wrong I was
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I have been thinking about the surprise factor of going against tendencies that the OC is talking about and how this is in conflict with what the players do best.
Nyheem Hines for example is not a very effective runner and more of a receiving RB specialist. His stats bear this out and not only over a few games, he has a career ypc of 3.7 which is below the league average of 4.3 and that is with 160 total rushing attempts so far. Without looking it up I will guess that many of Hines attempts have been in favorable down and distance to help him gain more yards as well.
Then looking at Hines receiving stats, he is below average statistically there as well, with only 5.3 ypt with 156 total targets. His catch rate is way up so far this year with Rivers and 5.7 ypt is better than his career average. So maybe he is going to be more effective because of Rivers play this year.
So based on this he isn't above average at either thing. I would say his receiving stats may be hurt by the fact that most defenses are going to account for him as a receiving threat moreso than as a runner. So the only way you are going to get a boost from a play calling aspect with him on the field is by running with him, which its pretty clear I think by now that this is not something he is good at.
I am just a guy with natural curiosity about things but as far as I call tell the Colts are only fooling themselves with this RBBC
Nyheem Hines for example is not a very effective runner and more of a receiving RB specialist. His stats bear this out and not only over a few games, he has a career ypc of 3.7 which is below the league average of 4.3 and that is with 160 total rushing attempts so far. Without looking it up I will guess that many of Hines attempts have been in favorable down and distance to help him gain more yards as well.
Then looking at Hines receiving stats, he is below average statistically there as well, with only 5.3 ypt with 156 total targets. His catch rate is way up so far this year with Rivers and 5.7 ypt is better than his career average. So maybe he is going to be more effective because of Rivers play this year.
So based on this he isn't above average at either thing. I would say his receiving stats may be hurt by the fact that most defenses are going to account for him as a receiving threat moreso than as a runner. So the only way you are going to get a boost from a play calling aspect with him on the field is by running with him, which its pretty clear I think by now that this is not something he is good at.
I am just a guy with natural curiosity about things but as far as I call tell the Colts are only fooling themselves with this RBBC
I-ROK
Footballguy
I think it’s a fair question. If he continues on the pace he is on now, he will have roughly the same scrimmage yards as Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs in 2019. Guys people were absolutely falling over themselves to draft last year. And that’s IF he doesn’t see an uptick in use as the season goes on.
1360 scrimmage yards would have been 12th best RB in 2019. As a rookie. You wouldn’t know Taylor is on that pace if you read the last dozen posts and tried to formulate your opinion (except for my posts of course
)
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You can call whatever game you'd like an outlier, but some fit the definition a heck of a lot better than others.
They smashed the Vikings as well, that didn't stop him from getting the lions share of the RB touches in the game.
Lot's of opinions in here but for me it's not that I'm down on him, I'm down on the usage (and the O-line play, although that should improve). His ypc doesn't bother me at all, his snap % and lack of targets do.
Things were looking great after the Vikings game. Trying to figure out why they stopped feeding him and whether it's going to continue.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Every game is different. I think a large reason they won against the Vikings is because of Taylor who the Colts used to keep the Vikings offense off the field. Plus some turnovers. This was a lower scoring game than their game against the Jets where they got a lead early and were less worried about the Jets mounting a come back.You can call whatever game you'd like an outlier, but some fit the definition a heck of a lot better than others.
They smashed the Vikings as well, that didn't stop him from getting the lions share of the RB touches in the game.
28 touches for Taylor vs the Vikings. 14 touches for Taylor vs the Jets.
This is part of why I think Taylor will get the ball more vs better opponents.
Every game is different but these two were fairly similar IMO. Indy's D dominated the Vikings, held them to 175 total yards and picked off Cousins 3 times. They were actually up by more at the half vs. the Vikings (15-3) than they were against the Jets (17-7) and the Bears (13-3) so game-flows weren't all that different, and the Bears are pretty good (were 3-0 and arguably as good as the Vikings).
There doesn't seem to be any obvious explanation for why the RB split changed so much after the Vikings game. The only thing I can think of is the OC said something after the game about getting Hines more involved (played only 9 snaps with 1 reception and zero carries), and it's almost like they over-corrected.
That’s the point. You can call whatever game an outlier in a tiny sample but you’d be doing so blindly before you had more data. I’m not saying 28 touches is the norm. I’m saying it’s silly to call anything an outlier at this point. They smashed the Vikes and he got 28. Smashed the Jets and he got 14. Which game is the outlier? Against the Jags he didn’t start and they lost a competitive game. That’s not like the other 3 in the sample. Btw he had 15 touches in roughly 60% of the game.humpback said:You can call whatever game you'd like an outlier, but some fit the definition a heck of a lot better than others.
They smashed the Vikings as well, that didn't stop him from getting the lions share of the RB touches in the game.
